 Hi, my name is Leon Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comma welcome to this week's forest and gold supply and demand fundamental and technical analysis if you're new or warm welcome to you And if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you and I'd like to just say thank you for if you are returning and You know, I really do appreciate the fact that you do like and subscribe To the channel if you do subscribe, of course, if you don't like the things that I say or you don't agree with it Then, you know, that's that's all good as well, right? We're not gonna all agree 100% at a time But just to those of you who do return and do like the content, you know, I just want to say, you know, thank you And also to those who comment as well So let's get into some of the fundamentals And the week ahead Just zoom in a bit. I guess if I can one second here we go zoom in Week ahead This is from trading economics comm in the US investors will be closely watching the release of the FOMC meeting minutes The University of Michigan of Michigan's consumer sentiment durable goods orders and new home sales Also November flash PMI figures for major developed economies including the US, Japan Germany France and Australia will take center stage finally central banks in China, New Zealand I think those are the really the countries that we're kind of look at will be deciding on the course of monetary policy And there's lots of detail In the analysis if you kind of scroll down you can have a read if you go to Trading economics comm and it should be on the front page In fact, it's right there the week ahead by the time you do read this And so let's get into some of the technicals and what's happened during the week starting off on the dollar index And the dollar index is just a measure of dollar strength if you don't know against the major currencies and We use this as kind of confluence or keep an eye on it at least It's confluence if you're looking to buy or sell the dollar right now My bias is to buy the dollar. I'm not, you know, this isn't financial advice or anything like that I'm just Telling you what I you know do every every week or what my bias is and for many of you who know Who've been following me for for any length of time have known that I've been buying the dollar for For probably maybe around about 18 months now just literally, you know buying the dollar on on pullbacks, right? Trying to get in and you can see, you know, the dollar, you know trend and this is You know, it's isn't necessarily the hardest thing to to kind of forecast if you understand how you know Fundamental analysis does work and by the way talking about fundamental analysis I did say last week that I would release a Webinar that I recorded on the 3rd of November if I've got 25% YouTube likes, you know in comparison to views which is one in four and But unfortunately, I didn't I go way below that right way below that. I think the yeah the channel here This was the video. I've got 115 likes, but I did get which was surprising 1839 views. I just want to say thank you to that And to those of you who viewed it, but it's definitely way below even like 10% So I've got a new target, right something that isn't too hard because I do want to give you this stuff, right? But you know, there's got you got to do something for it So here's a new target 10% YouTube likes one in 10 people just got to like this video if you do like it Of course, it's copy genuine As well as if you want to obviously, you know, watch the webinar and the webinar is a really good webinar It really is kind of a bit of like a cheat code and what do you know what you need to know? It cuts out all the nonsense And you know and fluff and really gets straight to the point as to what gives Currencies its value and if you can understand that then you can you know forecast Forex trends that last for months. In fact, you know, we've done it, you know Where we've been buying the dollar for you know 18 nearly two nearly two years now again Especially games like the Euro likes of the Euro. So You know, these are the things that you're going to learn in the webinar and so it's a 45 minute webinar Gives you the nuts and bolts of what you need to know But you've definitely got to do a little something for it not too much effort literally just you know Just like right one in 10 people got a like and get a thousand plus views, right? And then I will release it to the to the public and to those who did turn up You know, I do again I do thank you and if you do want to watch it again, just you know, just like anyways, let's get into back into the Into the Analysis so for again my bias is to really buy the dollar and a lot of traders were going Well, we'll had a had a short bias on the dollar and last week I did say That I'm looking to buy the dollar. I think the dollar was a bit of an overreaction and Hence the reason why I only have demand zones, right because from a demand zone perspective That's all I'm looking at. I'm not looking at supply zones, although there are some, you know There are supply zones here, you know, my bias is not really to look for any kind of Any kind of a short bias But if you are of course, you can you know look for confluences with the dollar index to come back to that Maybe that 109 area and then look for short trades in confidence with for example, you know dollar yen dollar Swiss dollar CAD if those are the pairs you're trading me I'm looking for buyers and You know looking at, you know fundamentally why is The fact that feds Bostick favours slower pace of rate hikes ending near, you know, five percent And Bostick sees 75 to 100 percent. Sorry 100 basis points of additional tightening and I think that the The the market kind of moved a bit and you know kind of anticipated the Fed pivot A bit too soon Especially when it comes to inflation And it says here that the Fed reserve Fed reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostick said that he favours a slowing a favor slowing the pace of interest rates with no more than 1% point percentage point More of hikes to try to ensure the economy has a soft landing. So I think there might be a You know, obviously there's going to be a Reduction in rate hikes as they get to the terminal rate The terminal rate is basically like a target rate of where they think inflation Interest rates should be to kind of it's almost like a sweet spot But again, I think this is also data dependent, right? So they might come out and say that, you know, this is What they believe but also this will be data dependent and he says if the economy proceeds as I expect I believe that a 75 to 100 basis point of additional tightening will be warranted Bostick said in preparation remarks for a speech in Fort Lauderdale, Florida on Saturday It's clear that more is needed and I believe the level of policy rate will be sufficient to reign innovation over the reasonable time horizon and so But I do think that the the the U.S. Is in a better position Economically, all right. So, you know, there are other central banks that are still looking to, you know Hike rates a bit more aggressively like Europe, for example, but It's my belief that the narrative will start to change quite soon where it comes to the market finding value in In the economy more than interest rates because it's not all the time that interest rates will appreciate a currency if It means that appreciating a currency and where hiking rates is going to push their economy into a recession sooner, right? and so And also as well that stuff that you will learn in the in the webinar now Again going back to the dollar index for me. It's really just looking for buy trades on any kind of pullbacks Again, we kind of didn't really break this and I say break it But you know this this demand zone is kind of held, you know and look at the daily closes Yes, we kind of spiked through it But I do think that the the 105s to 106 is already is really the area that I think You know the price should go kind of down to you could go down to that the 104 50s Of course who knows but for me that just means that it's a better buy for the dollar I think and it might start to flush out anyone who start started to look for dollar longs And then it you know stop hunts them and then goes to the upside So let's see what happens But my bias is to the to the upside in comparison to some of the other currencies Um dollar yen dollar yen again, we've kind of same thing In terms of the dollar being a bit of a you know having a bit maybe a bit of a pause And it might again go slightly lower, right if prices do go lower for me I do like this as a buy run a buy for the dollar To the downsides and then to the upside so that one three sevens I think it's pretty gonna be An absolute bargain for the dollar again considering that the Bank of Japan is still not looking to Hight rates soon, although the theme for 2023 and you heard it first here at some point in 2023 I think the yen is probably going to be a buy but I think it's for until the end of the year for at least Yeah, pretty till the end of the year. I think the the dollar yen, you know is Is a buy but coming into 2023 I think the yen might start to be a potential buy just depends on what the central bank do with their yield curve control and the monetary policy But if you are looking for short trades from a daily zone perspective You have to look for price to come all up to this 146 before Before looking at any kind of short trades moving on to the Swiss and a dollar Swiss pretty much bounced right off of this zone, right? nice Fresh area of demand bounced off of it Again, it would have taken Some guts to really look to kind of catch a falling knife But again, if you believe that the dollar is the stronger of two Then this wouldn't have been, you know, the biggest deal in the world, right? To try and anticipate especially when you consider how far, you know prices are falling When it comes to You know usual Forex moves, right in in terms of, you know, the price move in the time that it's moved it, right? So it's moved like 500 pips, which is like five was that five point the about five percent in a matter of like two days Which is very unusual So, yeah, there are forces of work that will probably end up, you know Pushing prices to the upside at least temporarily. Anyways If you do want to be a buyer of the dollar pull back to that demand zone I think is decent if you do want to be a buyer of the a Swiss franc The only way you're going to be able to do that is if prices pull all the way back up or if prices make new lows creating a supply zone here and then looking for a pull back up into the 95 areas before looking at getting short, but I'm not really looking to trade that pair at all Dollar cad and the dollar cad again bounce nicely off this area here. This is a demand zone Again the dollar cad is not the trade I'm looking or pay I'm looking to trade I think there are better trades out there if you are looking to buy the dollar again against the cat I think any kind of pullbacks is probably decent or this would be a better zone the one three one fifties I think will be decent but a price if you are looking to continue to short the The dollar against the Canadian dollar then any pullbacks into the this supply zone I think is actually quite decent for a Cell trade but again for me buying a Canadian dollar fundamentally Against the dollar US dollar. I'm not not really keen on doing that at all New Zealand dollar very interesting. New Zealand dollar has held up quite well, and I think for the eagle eye amongst you May have read that here that in New Zealand the RBA is a Zed story is expected Which is zoom in a bit is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points the fastest rate hike since the start of its 325 basis point tightening cycle and and so that typically and usually helps with Or can help with Currency appreciation right so while the dollar may might have strengthened against other currencies you're seeing obviously The fact that the New Zealand dollar actually I think they've ended up pretty just pricing in that That that 75 basis point hike of course So again, if you want to be a buyer with a New Zealand dollar You're looking really for a pullback into demand zone here if you're looking for a cell trade meaning you're buying the US dollar then This is actually a decent zone to look for any kind of short trades, but again, you've got two central banks quite I'll probably say that the RBNZ is probably a bit more hawkish than the then the Federal reserve as we've you know kind of seen from from the article, but Yeah, so for me, it's not really a trade or currency pair that I'm looking to trade anytime soon There is something that we are watching in the in the group in the discord group And by the way, if you do want to join the discord group talking about it There is the trading 180 mentorship and the enrollment does start on Monday the 28th of November Until Friday the 2nd of December, right? So those are the opening that's opening period and stuff gonna be the final opening of 2022 And the next moment is gonna be late January early February 2023 So go to trading 180.com if you do want to join and really learn high-level fundamental analysis to apply to your To your technicals and get you know a lot of good trading ideas but One of the one of the I trade ideas that we're talking about in the In the group is COVID-zero, right? Some of you may be aware of this COVID-zero in China, right and Meaning that if China reopens then the commodity currencies potentially a you know a buy so Let's see what happens there if you get a pullback on that and then you know you start to see some news around China reopening then I think the commodity currencies are a buy would it be a buy against the US dollar? Hmm. Yes I would say so But more so against probably some other currencies, but yeah looking for that But that's the only route the only way I'm I'm gonna even entertain an idea of buying the New Zealand dollar US dollar currency pair Pound dollar pound dollar zooming out right pound dollar As many of you know, I am You know short on this currency pair. I am actually short now in and around this area Got in last week and so let's see if it rolls over and we did have to go to the UK we can go to the UK one second UK Must have missed that US economy. We're talking about the US economy You gave right here we go So UK debt binge threatens to haunt its bond market for years at a gross financing Projects to raise one trillion by 2026 2027 and 10 years jump a full percentage point now It says so investors are slowly coming to terms with the sheer size of the UK government's borrowing needs over the next few years and it doesn't look pretty and so How that how that relates to currencies is that you've got a lot of government debt, right and if The the the bond market, which is the guilt market in the UK And which is basically government debt, right? If they're worried about, you know, how investors are going to invest in government There it doesn't look good because then bond market sells off then it doesn't fill I guess in global investors with With with confidence that the government debt can be paid off which then affects the economy, right and so There's some major issues going on in in the in the UK and It also, you know to top that off as well is that Britain's so charting the UK Charting a global economy UK income set for record drops of Britain's are about to experience a record drop in disposable Incomes as Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt raises taxes and cut spending to clean up economy already in recession So the UK program represents the sharpest entrenchment in the government spending since the austerity budget set out after the global financial crisis The measures have come as the nation's inflation rate here 41 year high of 11.1 percent in October more than five times central bank's target. And so, you know, not only The guy you've got fiscal issues, right fiscal me meaning government you got monetary monetary policy issues, right? And I think, you know, even though other countries have got over in the kind of like the same boat It's always about the dog with the least fleas, right? Who's a dog with least fees a dog with the most fleas dog with the most fleas for me is, you know, the UK and you know On top of energy prices and costs and you know government being already in debt, you know, I mean It's it's it's a bit of a very very Difficult situation for the UK more so than for example, you know the US and so for me that divergence You know shouldn't mean at some point I don't know whether it's gonna be now or you know, or maybe later on, you know This week price might go high before they go lower, but at some point Everything is pointing towards a lower pound dollar. So Let's see what happens there. So for me, it's all about, you know, short trades right now Hopefully, you know, I've got some targets down at the one tens as well So I'm looking at least if this trade runs to around at least a minimum of the one ten one eleven area Probably looking at good, maybe eight nine hundred pips To the downside and so let's see what happens there But if you are looking to be a buyer and don't know why that is a Supplier zone when it should be a demand zone that should be all demand You know, if you're looking to be a buyer of the the pound for whatever reason then you know The first area you're looking for is anywhere within this within this demand zone I'm not saying it's gonna go straight down a hundred, you know A thousand pips or nine eight nine hundred pips it could you know bounce off of that zone as well Don't bounce off of it again, and then you know make us way down Who knows right who knows how it's gonna get there But for me the power for these resistance should be continued to be to the downside and if we look at you know The where they do a dominant trend is if you're a you know, a technical analysis, you know trend follower then ultimately You would you would assume or you would think that the trend is still to the downside Fundamentally, you know trends are driven by you know medium to long-term fundamentals And so for me it's just quite a deeper pullback Due to obviously finger dollar overreaction not necessarily pound strength and I think once You know in going in towards the end of the year I do think that we should want to roll over because there's really nothing positive for the pound or unless you know The dollar does start to you know show some major cracks in the economy But for now I can't see that really happening. Of course, this is a probabilities game, right? Nobody knows for sure and there's no definite but from a probabilistic perspective just looking at you know Really, I think it's to the downside is where we should want to go over the next a few weeks at least towards the end of the Year And if not, then I'll just keep getting short up here because eventually this is going to you know This is going to roll over and value It's going to show its face and so yeah pound dollar Euro dollar Similar thing in with the euro dollar. I think the dollar is in a better position than then the euro The euro was really kind of outperformed in terms of more dollar weakness than euro strength the euro Spending big and badly shows energy crisis risks for Europe Policy makers call for temporary targeted and timely energy help in European Commission 70% of measures taken aren't targeted and crisis weary European governments That are spending big to cradle their economies through the energy crunch risk Causes and causing longer-term harm by spreading fiscal Support for firms and households too widely and so the inflation at record levels and central banks Rushing to lift borrowing costs to rein in prices policy and Policy makers and economists are warning of counterproductive clash if countries don't follow a rule that That's come to be known as the three T's temporary targeted and timely. Anyways You know Europe have got there, you know, they're major issues as well They did avoid a recession just barely Technical I say I say it's a recession. I guess contraction so a negative A quarter of GDP growth Whereas the UK didn't by the way, so But you know the better out of three when it comes to the euro the dollar and the pound Is going to be the dollar right the dollar cap and came in at 2.4 2.6% GDP wise so for me again Part of these reasons is to the downside if you are looking for a you know pull back to some sort of demand zone Then that's going to be the first demand zone to look for any kind of buy trades if prices do go even higher though And again for me, I'm looking to still be a buyer Of the dollar Aussie dollar and coming up to a nice supplier zone if you're looking to buy the US dollar Then this is a decent area to look for that and then he pull backs into a demand zone is going to be decent again Looking for buying of commodity currencies for me, especially against the dollar is going to be driven by China's reopening And but until that happens, I'm not looking to buy any commodity currencies against the US dollar But yeah, those are pretty much your options and if prices go even higher and you want to be a buyer of the US dollar then 69 6850s to 69s are really where you want to look for any kind of sell trades to buy the US dollar Aussie yen Aussie yen again a bit of a Yeah, I think for me, I think I think that the buying of the Australian dollar is really driven I really want to pull back matter of fact if you can get down to the 90s I think that's going to be really nice for me to Look for any kind of buy trades. But again, it really is dependent upon the global economy risk sentiment And that but so I think for me the the the better buy Although there could be definitely a buy at 91s 91 50s I think a fresher area of demand in terms of you're going down to the 90s is probably the best Area to look for buying of the Australian dollar if you want to be a buyer of the Japanese yen Then you could look for the 95s, but I think the 96 is a fresher area of supply is going to be the better buy Going into the end of the year This trade is a bit of a more of a difficult one to look for a trade So I'm watching it, but I'm not actively looking to Trade it. I am is on my watch this but not just not Just not I'm gonna wait for you know, the best opportunities to arise before getting involved and Finally gold and gold has made a massive, you know run up Been saying this that you know the central banks have been buying, you know buying for for cheap And so I am actually a buyer of of precious metals regardless of what happens So any kind of pullbacks into these zones I think are really nice And I think the gold has definitely found the floor so the ones the 1614s They've definitely been seen as buying opportunities buying buying And so if prices do get back down here, although looking to the left this has been, you know This has been bought, you know several times not a bargain anymore I do I will be prepared to be a buyer in and around this area here if prices can pull back I don't know whether they will pull back to these zones So if the dollar is again fed pivot, right meaning that they come enough to boil when it comes to Interest rate hikes if they start to reduce interest rate hikes inflation It's still going higher in terms of you know global inflation Then I do think any of these pullbacks to these demand zones are decent If you do want to get short on the on gold then you're looking for a pullback into the 1790s Before looking at getting short on a daily time frame chart and that brings me to the end of this video again Just as a quick reminder Trading 180 membership opens on Monday the 28th of November last opening this week and also as well Don't forget to like subscribe All right, and share the video One in ten of you if you can like this video then you're gonna get some information That's gonna be really really really helpful for you also as well in conjunction with This webinar as well that I put out it's called the free step to generating a profitable forex trade ideas It should really give you a great foundation as to you know how to apply fundamental analysis You know and really improve your trading over the medium to long term right over the short term in short-term trading a lot of traders You know tend to get this a bit Mixed up and confused is that short term if you're trading on like five minute Levels and five minute time frames or you know really like lower time frames Fundamentals might not help as much because it also depends on your strategy and whether you're anchoring your Your strategy with higher time frame levels, right? but But over the medium to long term Meaning the higher time frames if you're looking at high time frame levels and zones Then there's no reason why you know you can't improve your trading and trading results if you know you're watching this and also as well coupled with understanding You know that you know how to forecast forex trends that last four months So hopefully we can get this released to you if not then we have to try again the following week, right? Anyways guys take care. I hope you have a great trading week and all the best and speak to you soon