 happy Friday. I'm Tommy O'Brien comedy live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time as we kick off the trading day in about 24 minutes and it's jobs Friday folks and quite a jobs number to the upside pretty healthy economy still but what does that mean that means the Fed might have to bring it with some more rate hikes we have yield spiking we have markets pulling back we'll jump into all of it we kick things off with the S&P we were above 3,900 barely coming into that report at 830 this morning S&P spiked down about 35 points almost a full percent when you go from where we were trading at just coming into that number with the high of 3904 you trade down to a spike low at 845 of 3868 so what is that exactly 36 points almost a full percent since then we're bouncing a bit you take a look at this chart just over the last five days Tuesdays low we're still about 140 points higher from Thursdays low folks we'll keep that in mind that was also excuse me Tuesdays low also last Thursdays low the lows on this chart we're just off the highs of where we were yesterday and all things considered it's great to have a healthy economy but not where we're going to get a CPI number next week that you might get a nine handle on think about that folks we are gaining more jobs than the market is thinking that we are going to gain okay there was a revision we're going to get into numbers in a second but just generally trying to capture this market in my own mind we have CPI numbers that are about to come out on Thursday in six days from right now those CPI numbers I think the headline number they're looking for is like 8.8% very reasonable that we could get a 9% print on CPI numbers and at the same time we're adding 300 000 plus jobs exceeding expectations the Fed is going to look at that and say this is not the impact that will have the effect that we are looking for by raising interest rates at least for the time being we're going to have to keep our foot on the pedals 75 basis points I think is what will come next we'll see how we get that CPI number that's what we'll decide things but man if that number comes in hot and this number is still ripping with gaining jobs in 300 000 plus exceeding expectations I imagine that they were on course and that's what you're seeing right now in a reaction in this market as well it's a pretty messed up time to be trading it's been this way for a long time that when you get indications of a healthy economy it's actually bad for the stock market because that means that the Fed is going to do X right for the longest time if you got some bad jobs numbers that meant the Fed was going to have to ease things the market like that idea you get bad jobs numbers the market goes up on this date we get good jobs numbers they exceed expectations what happens the market goes down pay attention to that folks because it's all about the Fed right now and we're going to kick off the market update with the 10 year there's a pullback for you man we are off three points from where you were trading at just on Wednesday these moves not normally happening folks absolutely remarkable moves in the market jumping back to that chart so you got the 10 year was up to 126 we're back to 117 23 we have a pretty decent inversion going on right now in the year curve on the 10 year right now we're talking about a yield of 3.08 percent I will pull up let's see what the percentages are right now that's as pulling up for the actual yields on the two year the 10 year so we got about a five basis points that right let's zoom in on this so you can see it a little better we're talking about a two year yield right now of 3.12 percent you're up eight basis points and we got the 10 year at 3.08 percent so about four basis points both of them are pretty similarly but you can see the two year actually up almost eight basis points the 10 year up just shy of seven basis points so the the inversion expanding just a bit on the two year 10 year something to keep your eye on for sure okay let's jump over to the numbers and we get 372,000 jobs added in June in line with the prior month's pace but man I think the market was looking for about 250 let's see if they say it down here okay we'll pull it up pretty sure estimate 265 okay I saw 250 I believe earlier 265 there was a revision of 72,000 I think I saw to the downside on prior months see where they got that as well nonetheless you beat expectations unemployment rate 3.6 percent folks that number hits at 830 this morning markets pull back pretty immediately jumping into some of the intricacies okay of that number this is just the Bloomberg live feed they have some cool data as they take a look at some of what was happening there wages are cooling somewhat that could be beneficial 5.1 percent growth in wages is still inconsistent with the 2 percent target now they don't have the chart up there but somehow that just aired out but wages are cooling to some degree let's see there were a couple other charts that jumped out at me here so you got 73 basis points now up from 71 priced in for the July FOMC after that strong headline yeah I mean this is this is this says it all not even Dan Suzuki deputy chief investment officer Richard Bernstein told you argue we're in a true recession when jobs are still growing at this pace I would agree with that that doesn't say at all that I was gonna say but that just means the Fed is gonna have to bring it folks we'll see what CPI comes out because now the CPI number becomes even more important because if you still have a strong CPI then you're really in trouble I mean the whole goal is to bring down inflation and have a strong jobs market if the CPI starts coming down and you have jobs still being gained the Fed's going to be cool with that but if the CPI does not come down and you have jobs being gained by 350,000 you have unemployment sitting at 3.6 percent you have almost two jobs open for every unemployed person in the country that will cause them to continue the restrictive policy that they are in in terms of hiking so right now we are 524,000 that is total payrolls below pre-pandemic levels unless there's a big change in the coming months that should be wiped out by the end of August so come September we may well see a record number for total payrolls yeah I'm sure that will get political as we go out there but back to that same number above the pre-pandemic levels even though you have people out of the workforce during that time now we had some of the different sectors here we go so health sector very good sign you had 78,000 jobs gained last month biggest jump since February that industry yeah very very difficult folks many many workers of course over the last two and a half years tell you those healthcare workers man they deserve more everything in the last two and a half years what they've had to deal with you have women participation rate women in their prime working years also took a hit last month despite the biggest increase in childcare jobs since September this is your childcare jobs in terms of where you are you can see still see well below the overall level workers in the sector remain significantly below pre-pandemic level period interesting how there's so many differences across different sectors it's why you're seeing so many imbalances right that is part of the problem with inflation right now we're about 500,000 jobs within being at pre-pandemic levels meanwhile you have childcare jobs way under that level you have healthcare jobs still under that level by pretty dramatic fashion now you have a 15,000 gain in retail this is interesting because you had a 44,000 drop in May okay these are the June numbers so you have a 15,000 gain in retail could be a good sign that maybe those companies turning things around that's the analysis here I would agree with it though they have tons of inventory if they were really going to be in trouble folks you wouldn't see a gain there in the retail sector in June probably maybe they have plans to weather a short-term bout of excess inventory and turn that around all right that was pretty much it I had pulled up here and there's where I got the almost two number for every unemployed worker there are 1.9 open jobs still an unhealthy labor market much more work for the Fed to do to correct that imbalance there's lots of contradictory factors when you look at this market folks but the bottom line is the Fed is going to be hiking until they get inflation under control and right now inflation's raging and the economy is very strong so that means the Fed can't bring it and that's what the market's trying to figure out this morning stay tuned folks we'll be right back after the break Vista Gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in Australia the Mount Todd Gold project Vista Gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a 7 million ounce gold reserve Vista Gold has all major permits approved and has 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have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors tfnn has launched the tiger's den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks it's going to be an interesting friday coming in next week we get cpi data s and p's right now you're negative by 16 points we're right at near 3900 all things considered not that bad considering where we are with you're talking about inflation you're talking about a fed that is hiking a fed that basically has the market factored in right now of a 75 basis point hike again in their next meeting a couple other data points out from the jobs number this morning just looking at a couple tweets some of my friends were sharing essentially a full round trip for permanent job losses and temporary layoffs so you take a look at it a full reversal of where we went man you have the number of unemployed on temporary layoffs surging during covid of course that number basically back to where you were prior to covid and the unemployment permanent job losers up from dramatic levels basically back to there as well and it would make sense when you're about 500 000 jobs within pre pandemic levels all of those things kind of coming back to where they were prior to the pandemic jumping over to one last data point before we jump away to some of the other stories we got up for the day not only is the job number fantastic for are we in a recession it's great for basically any month period to put how good and we've just become used to some of these numbers all right you got to keep some of these numbers in context because this is what the feds going to be looking at too okay the fed today is saying man this economy is just still pretty hot even though we're jacking rates up even though we got the tenure up to above three percent even though we got mortgage rates pushing six percent housing markets still hot jobs markets still hot to put how good 372 is in context it's higher as a percent of employment than 79 percent of monthly jobs numbers since 1980 you take a look at that chart in terms of where we are it's a very healthy jobs number folks we got an unemployment of 3.6 percent and so CPI man keep your eye on it because the fed would love to have a strong economy but you can't have a strong economy when you have inflation raging at eight or nine percent that's going to be the problem if that persists the fed will persist especially no matter what happens to the market and yeah at some point the market will matter okay but if we got numbers coming out like this the feds mandate is full employment folks the feds mandate is not s and p 500 or 5000 the feds mandate is full employment we got almost 400,000 jobs a month right now with unemployment at 3.6 percent and we have job openings that are almost two open jobs for every unemployed American you got to consider that when you look at the CPI number man pay attention because if this CPI numbers hot the market's basically already reacting to it in terms of what yields are doing but yeah that's the case and I think it's pretty clear if you take a look at it sometimes it's difficult to keep track of everything going on in terms of the rhetoric out there inflation is still raging folks okay and the economy doing this well gives the fed the room to keep hiking until they tame inflation all right let's jump around see what else we got going on couple stories for the car industry Ford reports worst quarterly sales in China since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic jump over to four chairs Tesla on the flip side of that forward down a bit but that's just basically with the market 11 58 from 11 72 was a high last night and Tesla on the flip side of that China shipment sort of record as plant fires back up the even even makers domestic deliveries were unprecedented almost 78,000 units overall car sales in China in June rose 22% to 1.97 million monthly ships in China vehicles rebounded to a record in June a stunning recovery after they lifted those restrictions yeah so they delivered 79,000 well over the 33,155 in the same period a year ago yeah and that's basically all of them going to local market domestic so monthly deliveries from China sunk to as low as 1512 units in April and zero exports as Shanghai's week-long punitive lockdown forced the company to suspend production so it looks like they've kind of got back on the train there in China and I imagine that they may not be shutting things down as quickly next time in China as they try and weather this because it was a pretty severe damage but you don't know what's going on China man they don't have the vaccines we do and that's your upon COVID policy really setting them back Tesla this morning and open down about eight bucks let's jump around to some of the other fang stocks this morning Amazon quite a run yesterday I think was about 1.75% to 116.99 you're back a bit today Meta had a decent run as well they've backed off a bit to about 170 Google shares this morning 2357 if we jump to Tesla I said 725 and let's jump to Twitter because Twitter looks like that deal may be in peril although you're getting a little bit of a lift this morning this is going to be an interesting one to see how it plays out folks just from like a legal standpoint so from what I understand and the Tigers then please enlighten me if I'm wrong man because it gets intricate here the deal can fall through but legality wise the deal isn't supposed to be able to fall through if Elon just says I don't like the deal that I made with you I'm going to change it now he had to what get financing there were things that needed to be done but I'm pretty sure that he just didn't have the option like you would to say no I don't like the deal we made I'm going to come back which is pretty much what's happening I think any reasonable person would be able to figure that out one of the biggest reasons that Elon was going after Twitter was because the thing had so many bots right well now the problem is it's got too many bots but either way story out there last night saying that it's um it may not go through you got some real problems out there not surprising drops from 39 to 36 see seems to be the case that Elon wants all the data to verify quote unquote bots but something to keep in mind folks I wouldn't give you on that data if I was twitter okay because who says that he buys the company right I mean that's the problem okay um who knows what his real motive is there and to relinquish all that private data in some way when he does not follow the rules man no matter what you do so it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out in the courts uh in yeah in this a mark in this market he would probably be right to try and renegotiate that deal we're going to see how it plays out nonetheless twitter down this morning but man you think about it you're only down a buck 30 for some context here right back things up just on a daily like what was it when when did the when did the news first break that Elon was buying a position I think maybe it was at this point here back in March March 17th possibly we'll have to figure it out or was it this break here or was it this break I'll pull it up the exact date if anybody has in the den um you're trading at 3879 well off the price they did pay for it and there's no way folks that that deal is going through at the 44 billion dollar price whatever they've negotiated maybe they do a renegotiation to avoid the the battle and the and the potential payout that may have to go through but yeah they're saying it's about bots and obviously that's something that was considered going into that deal all right let's see what else I got pulled up here in terms of articles bank of america talking about potential people dumping uh stocks on recession bond funds see biggest inflows in 14 week strategies see range bound s&p 500 before further declines so nearly 63 billion flowed into cash in the week through july 6th while global equity funds had redemptions of 4.6 billion that's bank of america stock funds still saw their second week of additions while global funds had their biggest inflows in 14 weeks at 2.4 billion check out that number 63 billion flowing into cash in the week through july 6th that is a number man they're looking for range bound trading huh 3800 to 4200 this summer i think would all love a 4200 range bound trade man in this in this market right now 3800 3800 it's the the the low the range shoot we were there this week man we were below it on tuesday 3800 i think that's an optimistic range doesn't mean it can't play out but we will see all right folks we're going to get the open we'll see what the market has to say when we come back in three minutes stay tuned s&p is negative by 19 i'll be right back time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded there's no better place to protect your harder and money than ain't gold this the gold flagship asset is the monk cod gold project in the northern territory of australia this is australia's largest undeveloped gold project we are talking world-class gold project in a tail one mining district this is a large-scale low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction this the gold just completed the mount tod feasibility study which resulted in a 7 million ounce gold reserve in a 16-year mine life all of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits this distinguishes mount tod 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tfnn.com or on tfnn's youtube channel and become the investor you were born to be tfnn educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we got markets open right now and you have an s and p barely in the red when you look at where we are right now negative by just 13 points trading at 38 91 uh not that long go folks you back it up as i've been talking about july 1st 37 40 or solid almost 150 points off that level and man you look where we were on june 17th right just three weeks ago ago on that low i mean it's tough to overstate 250 s and p points from that price level alone folks 38 88 right now you get the nasdaq 100 you're back a bit you're back a full percent in growth stocks off 127 points just above 12 000 the dow off only 2 10th percent russia off 4 10th percent bitcoin 21 270 bitcoin pretty interesting this is the battle line right you back things up as far as you go when futures go active december of 2017 there's your blue line you can see pretty critical area for bitcoin you go below there where's your next stop 10 000 maybe it's maybe it's 14 000 which was the high you back in in june of 2019 uh but bitcoin finding a bit of a bid near about 20 000 back to a shorter term time frame you jump over to crude quite the acceleration crude just got above the highs you had yesterday you're at 104 37 you're nine dollars almost ten dollars off of the lows we had just wednesday that crude market uh not going away just yet gold tough week for gold gold down at 17 39 flat on the session right now and you jump to notes and bonds a little bit of a reversal of the action but you got the 10 year right now negative by 12 ticks 117 28 the 30 or negative by almost a full point 28 ticks 137 17 you jump over the vix pretty interesting action man the vix it's been some tame action in this vix i was reading an article yesterday that talked about people have been to buy in the vix for hedges even on the acceleration down you haven't really got the reward especially for the market corners that you've seen a couple of these probably because the vix hasn't been below 20 many times throughout the year so even when you get some spikes folks the vix of 20 is already calculating in some pretty decent spikes we're trading right now at 2608 when you think about it the lows of february were 1845 so you have not been below 1845 in the vix since the first couple weeks of the year and even then most of the time that we've been spending is above 24 absolute huge volatility priced into the market and probably rightfully so for the moves that we're getting all right let's jump down the line for some of the equities they're moving right now levi they reported better than expected sales and profit for its latest quarter helped by higher prices and strong demand for its denim offerings they raised the quarterly dividend by 20 percent you jump over to levi shares we'll put it back on a short-term time frame they were a bit higher they've traded off a bit but man check out that chart right let's back this up a little bit for us before we do you talk about a pullback man back to almost COVID lows from $30 and 84 cents that's a one-way trip man maybe this is the turnaround but all I'll say is let's put it on a daily real quick before I do this I mean that's close you're still not quite breaking out if you take this trend line right now where's that line up you could have the first trend line taking place here and maybe that's the bounce that it got at that low 1562 bouncing a couple times the other side you can take that from is right here though in which case those tops should bumping right up against that level so maybe you look for a little bit more of an acceleration for levi because they were higher they give it up a bit you're at 1750 you're at 1702 their earnings after the bell last night game stop so let's see how they're trading they fired their CFO and told employees in an internal memo that it's cutting staff as it tries to turn around it's business model game stop original reddit favorite uh trades lower after the close last night but you're down about 6.1% today take a look at a longer term timeframe on this chart that's pretty cool so I had that one on there for a while let's put it on the daily going back three years five years lighted up there yeah so all you're doing is bumping up against that trend line check that out right you go back to the highs of june or 2021 what is that high in game stop then 344 you touch the high in november of last year that correlates to where you were approximately at the end of march of this year and also where you are june june and july you're still at 127 bucks so if you want to wake up call what's this stock worth could be two dollars could be 15 dollars could be 25 127 anything's possible the market's never wrong is one way to look at it's valued at about 10 billion dollars right now um but look how long this thing was chopping around at 1015 tough to remember since uh it's been a fan favorite up to 483 let's see if that line extends up how it goes left oops oh geez yeah not quite blows right through that top high but nonetheless you can see going from the recent highs that's a critical area right in game stop they're down 6.1% when they have their cfo getting fired so we know twitter is lower uh spirit this one the the saga continues so they've pushed back um a special a special shareholder meeting to vote on its planned merger with frontier until july 15th so one week back again the postponement comes as spirit continues talks with both frontier and rival suitor jet blue so the market likes that because the bottom line is jet blues willing to pay like a billion dollars more so there's spirit up 2.1 percent now their planned merger is what they call it ulcc is frontier that gets a lift of 2.3 percent spirits up 2.1 and jet blue is up 810th percent all them up a little bit it's going to be interesting to see how that one plays out as well so wd 40 quarterly profit and sales fell short of analyst expectations implanted by inflationary pressures and a number of global disruptions oh boy down 10 percent pretty remarkable this is like a whole company right wwd 40 uh a great product i got some of my garage i remember they were in almost all garages when you're a kid this is company worth i'm sure they have more than just wd 40 2.4 billion dollars right now you're down 12 percent man look at this thing you're back to right where you were pre-covid levels you were up to 333 this thing's doing the same thing check out this trend line look at this right it's an art not a science folks but sometimes put those things on your charts man because they're at least areas you get to take a look at and as hard as it may be to think that when you're coming back up to this point at 209 and meanwhile the last time it touched this trend line was a 252 how are you going to dip lower even at that price level and what's it do folks it trades down from 207 yeah that's last week right this a weekly yeah check this out there's your daily yeah all that drop off today down to 180 from 205 as you're approaching that trend line all right in terms of what else i had pulled up there's your game stop yeah we talked about forward the jobs report bank of america tesla their five shipments yeah this one's going to be an interesting one on on a macro scale in some degree this is the big takeover at bloomberg this article out yesterday last night historic cascade of defaults is coming for emerging markets number of developing nations trading distressed has doubled with El Salvador Ghana egypt tunisia and pakistan appearing particularly vulnerable emerging markets it's going to be a tough one folks that is part of the reason you've seen so much strength in the dollar index we'll jump over to the dollar index when we get back from the break and also folks if you haven't checked it out on the front page of tfnn our man teddy keg stat put out an outstanding newsletter the tiger forex report this is the second weekly issue he just launched that report we'll talk a little bit about that when we get back very important time for forex i had a great call on the bond market this week as well stay tuned we'll be right back are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area including the surrounding st petersburg tampa and clearwater markets tiger real estate llc is a firm that has extensive experience in the tampa bay area whether you're looking to sell your current property for maximum value or you're in the market for a second home or investment property tiger realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the tampa bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels from the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas 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only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor foresight fund services llc this program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz welcome back folks we got the s and p right now only negative by 70 seven not 70 seven points charging back near about 3900 quite a resurgent man you're up 30 points from where you were at 845 this morning we got a lot of green bars we'll see where the day goes we're only 12 minutes in the trading day jumping around to some of the currencies real quick euro us dollar we almost got parity man one dollar 00716 right now we're up a bit off those levels this is a five minute chart on the euro us dollar you take a look at that thing on a daily that is quite a march from february man from 114 we're almost at parity great time to take a trip in europe folks if you're thinking about it anytime soon lock in some of that uh one of my best friends lives in switzerland one thing he was saying at the time though man is uh also a great time to jack up prices on tourists over there if you're doing something especially touristy be careful of them jacking up those prices uh because they're aware what's going on right now they're aware that the euro us dollar is so low they're aware that americans especially getting a bargain over there and that we're used to inflation they were talking about so interesting dynamics nonetheless euro probably on its way to parity is how some have put it believe that's what our man teddy kegs that was saying just last uh just wednesday when we were chatting with him on the program and folks as i mentioned the tiger forex report coming over the front page of tfnn so this special is only running for this month okay teddy launched his newsletter he put out the second week weekly issue this week uh he's already had two updates folks he put out a weekly issue first trading day of the week this one it was tuesday because we were closed on monday with the july 4th holiday so you'll get a weekly report it's a great time to sign up because you get access to the archives he has in there you'll be signed up for the report that he puts out the weekly report on monday morning and he put out a report this morning prior to the jobs number he had a report out yesterday just talking about an update on one of the currencies i believe but he had a report yesterday a report out this morning a weekly report that started things it's 97 but right now for this month folks you can sign up as an inaugural member a charter member you lock in 25% savings for the life of your subscription uh normally 97 that 25% brings you down to 72 75 you lock it in and still you get a 30 day money back guarantee so try it out encourage you he had a great call on bonds talking about potentially will jump to that bond market he covers the 30 year every week in his weekly newsletter uh and yeah talking about basically maybe a slight reprieve we talked to him on wednesday man let's see what time it was on wednesday look at this we were talking to teddy man when the when the 30 it was at 141 24 we're a full four plus points below that price let me say yeah uh i think this is a reprieve i'm surmising it you can always go check out the interview folks at our youtube channel just search tfnn all of the interviews all of the programs we do we archive them upload them right there free subscribe to our youtube channel so you get all the notifications um but yeah interesting action across the board and you gotta jump to the sad news over in japan man i said to some friends this morning absolutely horrible news to wake up to doesn't get much worse man i'm shocking shocking to say the least as their prime former prime minister um abe assassinated uh just a very sad deal for the japanese people for him for his family his loved ones sent some prayers sent some white light over to uh his family his friends and all the people in japan over there morning uh today sad story man life is precious folks uh that's one thing you can always take away from stories like this because who just in an instant seem like a great man and gone real bummer and it is like bummer doesn't even do its service right just very very sad tragic state of affairs to say the least all right what else we got going on jump around let's jump around to some of the equities we'll take a look at some of the airlines this morning let's do it on the travel sector jump back to some of the headlines you got the s and p is negative by 10 right now american a little bit of a lift you're up by two tenths percent i've been seeing some horror stories on social media for some of these travel companies in terms of delays delta up a bit up nine tenths percent right now uh some of the other equities i want to get to i think i saw that warren buffett bought more oxy i think so oxy up one percent you got crude rising right now cvx chevron gives it up a bit xon mobile they were talking about chevron yesterday on fast market they did a nice segment take a look at this thing right quite a pullback from 182 man these companies are probably going to be making a lot of money for a long time folks um you know it doesn't mean you have to buy this thing at 143 right now when it was trading last year at $93 but if you're looking for a longer term position you're looking for a good dividend play these stocks are going to be there they're going to be there for a while even you know you're not going to see crude back to 60 bucks anytime soon even if you get a reprieve i don't know what happens in russia i don't know how that gets resolved if it gets resolved hopefully it does in some form but that is going to be a persisting element of risk in that market that is going to be present for some time to say the least and there's your chart on crude we're at but 103 84 jump around to the fang stocks amazon gives back a lot of the gains they had yesterday look at that slide down more than one percent for amazon let's check out retail because retail added some jobs but you target down about half a percent walmart shares catches a lift there you go up about eight tenths percent for walmart let's see even companies like Nordstrom's down about three tenths percent macy's down about five tenths percent coles has their own deal going on whether they're going to get bought out doesn't seem likely right now with everything going on in retail they're down about six tenths percent let's check out the cruise ships as well so carnival oh excuse me that's cool that i was like wait a second there's your action on carnival i'll be careful of this one folks if you touch any of these cruise ships be careful i'm not sure i forget who put out the note but somebody put out a note one of the analysts recently saying basically if they face any more demand shocks in any capacity they're probably going bk because of the number of debt the gross just debt that they have on their books that they've had to incur during covid i mean look at that downtrend you actually broke out of that downtrend folks okay and that's a downtrend remarkably that stems from prior to covid isn't that cool look at that chart right carnival let's see how far back it goes yeah right from the highs man so 72 70 is the high in january of 2018 i'm gonna put this back to a five-year weekly there's your high yeah you get a couple highs and lows but look at how it just exacerbates the sell-off during covid where do you trade to folks you trade right back up to the upper boundary of the trend line that it had been in for the better part of 2018 and 2019 and you just broke out of that trend line to the low side and what did you do an ode to our man bud rawls the channel master the channel king you break out of the channel line folks that's not when you your that's not when the move is confirmed you let it come back and test the channel line so what does it do it trades to a low of 870 you get back up to 1085 you get back up to 1105 you hit that channel line and then you trade lower you know if you're willing to take a gamble and you're willing to risk capital that you can wake up one day and maybe that capital is gone on a company like this maybe 50% of it's gone right you don't know when you're dealing with a company that has this level of debt and um you know the pandemic i understand is over and a lot of people's minds and that is cool man two and a half years later you know what i mean but cruise ships is a special element man i'm living my life i'm doing whatever i want to do um but i'm not sure i'm going on a cruise ship just yet with two kids young kids uh i'm still aware that there's some germs out there that i don't want and cruise ships they might have a little problem man uh this wasn't supposed to be the kind of over you know cruise ships kind of learned all they're a little bit of a cesspool of germs man so not sure they're there quite yet carnival down another 2.4 we get the s and p's down 28 a little bit of a selloff stay tuned folks we've got about three minutes i'll be back to finish up the show tfnn has just launched their new trading room the tiger zen hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours and now they are expanding their reach with the tiger's den available to all tigers and tigers for just one dollar for the year there's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders in the tiger's den you can look over the shoulders of tom o brian and the other tfnn hosts while they analyze charts during their live tiger tv programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day even at night and on the weekends the tigers den at discord is accessible on mobile or 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to the fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors this segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com welcome back folks we give the s and p's down by 27 points right now nasdaq 100 negative by 137 sitting right at about 12,000 nasdaq 100 you're off about 1.2 percent s and p's are off about three quarters percent the dow off about five tens half a percent right now in the russell off a full percent jumping back to one of those tweets i had pulled up because i got a stress at folks okay this tweet it's talking about the jobs added okay versus months since 1980 where we are right now okay is the number of about 372 thousand and what this is is as a percent of total employment okay because it wouldn't be fair to compare it compare it to the 1980s because just population growth alone adding 372 thousand is not as impressive as it may have been back then what is impressive is when you compare it to as a percent of total employment in terms of the numbers the one thing i want to stress folks is look at the numbers in prior recessions okay we're not there yet look at what happened in 2000 look at what happened in 2008 look at the fall offs that we've seen okay we are very high on the totem pole right now in terms of monthly jobs added at a time when we're going to see get a cpi on thursday i talked a lot about this the beginning of the program if you weren't here when we started things off though we have a very hot jobs market and we have a cpi out thursday of next week we could get a nine percent print you know it's easy to think okay the market's pulled back 900 points almost a thousand points here we go maybe we're going to lift higher these type of charts are pretty scary folks if inflation persists this is the disclaimer watch those cpi numbers man we'll see how they trade oil is going to matter energy prices are going to matter but if the cpi prices persist and this is what our jobs market looks like the fed will continue to hike that's what to pay attention to in this market folks s&p's they're kind of thinking the same thing right now off by 30 points we were trading at about 3,900 when we came into that number there's your second sell-off we just got to the tune of about 30 points to the downside all right folks stay tuned we got our man basil Chapman he's up next with the tiger technicians hour we've got our man larry pesavento at 11 fast market at 12 Steve Rhodes at one Dave White at two and Tom O'Brien my dad wraps it up live from three till four thanks so much for starting your trading day with me folks stay tuned basil's up next have a great friday