 Hey guys welcome Let's look at the SNP and I'm gonna show my worksheet on the SNP. Yeah, I have a Present value Calculation on the SNP not just individual stocks. I also have one for real estate. It's amazing It's amazing. If you look at the market, you'll see these dips or Rises, you know the Frowny faces or the use of the market and Then you get these recoveries after and you're wondering why would any anybody sell in the dips or why would anybody Not shave off a little bit in the peaks Right. It's so easy in hindsight Well If you have a long-term view it might make it a little easier So this is what I do. I do and I've you know, I haven't always done this I used to just be a technical trader, but if you look at the The 10-year Assumptions of the market you can get earnings from analysts and punch them in You can discount them. You can grow them right now. Roughly the SNP has a 7% assumption roughly Let's see if I can zoom in so the growth rate for a decade is about 7% and If you look that means that in the future in 2033 if I grow out the earnings I Have here four different valuations. I have peg two peg one I have a 15 PE and I have a nasty 8.5 base PE and Given those four valuations in the future this EPS Valued at a multiple S&P could be almost 6,010 years or 3,000 or 6300 or 3,500 now how horrible would that be if the S&P in 10 years in a decade is Around 3,000 That would be bad because that's that's a low number that would be a lost decade, but that's very much a possibility When you consider the different valuations of the market, I don't know what scenario that would be but all I do is I plot these valuations and I just keep keep note of them if you look at the 2023 numbers it's saying for this growth rate of 7% two times the growth rate Would be around 3,000 But the S&P is Around 4,100 So what that tells you is people aren't buying the S&P for this year's Valuation they're not buying this the S&P because the earnings are so good this year. They're they're pricing in the future they're willing to hold the S&P and They're looking at the future growth and you can tell because if the S&P was a good deal this year It would be at these lower valuations For the current growth rate or an average a historical average of 15 PE it would be closer to 3,300 or Even less because it doesn't grow that much so that's kind of Illuminating for the S&P to be a good deal. You don't want to pay this price Or you'll have to wait a while because this sheet just discounts 10% it takes the future and then Brings it back and yeah, you'll make 10% over time You won't make it this year. I Mean not not a not if the numbers go off of earnings the market can do whatever it wants to do But if you hold it and it doesn't improve it may not be very attractive Okay, enough about that. I also have one for real estate Let's punch that in I'll show that one you can do the same thing for real estate and The reason I like it How big is that number? The reason I like it. I need to fix that one You can change these prices and you can look at rents and you can do the same thing And I've been doing this for Your real estate I've been getting some good data This PV is not working, but I'm not gonna fix it now if you make a discounted cash-flow Model you can see what you should pay or what the future could be and then model it back out I guess I have an error in mind. So I'm gonna not dig into this one, but very very useful you can also Calculate your return on a property if you if you use a down payment You can calculate. Hey, what's my keger or what's my leverage return? What's my non leverage return and then you can compare it to the stock market because that's one of the hard parts Should I buy a house or should I buy a stock or should I do both or when do I do it either? That math is fascinating One of my buddies brought up a stock GitLab I ran the numbers guess what it matches the same Numbers of the S&P as in it's no better When the current price and the present value of the of the earnings when they match up it means It's priced perfect and if you look at GitLab There is no opportunity. It's priced perfect. You're not going to beat the market buying a growth company That's too expensive for the current year if if the future growth If that's the only way you're gonna make a profit that means you're gonna be waiting a long time to start to make Profit if you look at the business itself when too much of the growth is priced in in this year and the forward year That's not a great. That's not necessarily a great investment. So If you look at this one GitLab loses money Barely makes any money and then makes a little bit of money, but even in 2025 that would still only be a 7 to $14 stock. So you're you've already paid a premium and You're overpaying for three years because you're hoping to break even somewhere in 2028 Do you want to buy an investment that doesn't make any money for five? Years and then maybe starts to make some money. That doesn't sound very good. There are better opportunities There are better opportunities out there, so I Don't want to Show those because I've shown them in different videos, but I just want to show hey when something is priced perfect it means that The discount rate is factored in the size of the opportunity It's not very big. You'll still make money, but there's a lot of risk and There's no discount to a fair value when something is priced perfect. It means there's not a big opportunity It's not a mispricing. So this is all a worksheet like this or a you know a model Tries to do it tries to paint a picture when you look at a stock It's only a picture But but life isn't a picture. It's a movie. It's a moving It's a series of moving pictures. So you really have to have more tools than just a chart you want to have Some a better understanding of of the business Okay, well, I hope that was useful Please do better homework. Don't just look at the pictures and think you know it all there's There's multiple forms of analysis Cheers