 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network South Carolina is undefeated entering the 2024 women's college basketball tournament trying to cruise to the tournament victory But there are some fun challengers in their way including Caitlyn Clark and Iowa LSU trying to repeat We're gonna break down the women's bracket for today by talking to Justin Carter for hoop stats and rotor ball are getting His read on this year's field whether he wants to bet on South Carolina Maybe consider the field at plus 115 of that very tough region with Iowa and LSU in it and much more This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here by Justin Carter You can find Justin on Twitter at Jay or just cards You can check out his work at her hoop stats and at roto baller as well full breakdown of the women's tournament up at Roto baller right now. Justin. I appreciate the time. How you doing today? Hey, I'm good. Thanks for having me on You bet we had you on last year breaking down the final four That was when the Caitlyn Clark buzz was kind of reaching its its First peak I would say but then it seems like this year It's gotten to a whole new level and it seems like the interest in general around this sport has been Add an all-time high and if you like for you as someone who's been entrenched in this for a while That's got to be kind of fun to see people slowly trickling over to this sport. You have so much knowledge about Yeah, it's been it's been a lot of fun I actually moved to Iowa a couple years ago and it's been crazy being here. Yeah, I'm just seeing the Caitlyn Clark Xenus I was at a antique mall and they have like bobble heads of her selling for like 200 bucks right now and stuff It's just like I'm looking at my collection that you know I gotta gotta add to my collection somewhere to get it to get a Caitlyn Clark bobble head up there Somewhere we're talking about Caitlyn Clark and the very tough path that she and Iowa have for this year's tournament break down Weather, South Carolina is a value despite being minus 145 to win this year's event and much more But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We broke down the men's bracket on yesterday's show by talking to Dr. Feng and Bennett Corcoran getting their read on this year's field who do they like in the final four their national championship? National champion pool strategy and much more you can find that in the covering the spread podcast feed the fan dual YouTube page and Fan dual TV plus as well more shows coming up later on this week breaking down the Thursday and Friday games So get those by subscribing to covering the spread We'd be like what you hear leave us a five-star rating as well say goodbye to busted brackets because fan dual Let's you bet on every game on an attorney whether you're betting on a big upset or a one seed It's time to go dancing on America's number one sportsbook right now new customers get $200 in bonus bets If your first $5 bet wins, that's 200 bucks to use on point spreads money lines You can even pick who's gonna win it all just visit fan dual comm and bet on college hoops And until they cut down the nets must be 21 plus and president select states Fan dual is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC first online real money wager Only $10 first deposit required bonus issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt see terms that sportsbook That fan dual comm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over some fan dual comm slash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee Virginia, North Carolina and Vermont call 1 800 next step or a text next step to 5334 2 in Arizona 1 8879 7777 where's the ccpg dot org slash chat in Connecticut 1 800 9 with it in Indiana 1 800 522 4700 is a chaos gambling help.com in Kansas 1 877 770 stop in Louisiana visit md gambling health Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West Virginia 1 800 522 4700 in Wyoming. Hope is here as a gambling helpline ma.org or call 100 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1 8 7 70 hoping why or text open why in New York now Just let's begin things here by talking about South Carolina minus 145 to win the women's tournament for this year, which is a banana's number obviously, but They probably deserve it. They are 32 and oh entering this year's dance and they've had a pretty tough road to get there as well So I want to ask you Justin Does that number properly reflect the gap between South Carolina and the field or is there some consideration on your Your end to potentially bet in the field at plus 115 if annual sportsbook Yeah, I mean it's it's a tough question because I think South Carolina is by far the best team in college basketball this year They beat a lot of good teams in non-conference. They beat you con Utah Notre Dame But that number is just I mean it's a 68 team field. I think there's some other really good teams in it It's hard to bet a team at minus 145 In such a Talented chaotic field even though I think they probably would the tournament Right and Probably to me means they have the best odds to do so But in order to get to minus 145 you're talking almost 60 implied odds than to do so There's a big gap between they probably win and they're 60 likely to do so and I think that's kind of what you're getting at here Yeah, and we have um our her hoop stats founder ran a 10 000 tournament simulation and they win 40 percent of the time there So 60 percent of the time in that someone else is winning So, I mean, I think that kind of shows that like yeah, they should be the favorite, but I don't think it should be To this level odds wise So 60 for someone else to win You got the the number here at plus 115 that would imply there's some value in the field now obviously just and that's scary to do because that means you are betting against South Carolina and They're really good. They're up there for a reason So do you consider the plus 115 for the field to topple South Carolina this year? I do. Yeah, I mean, I think Yeah, yeah, I mean of the two of those two numbers that's the one I slightly feel more confident with Like it's a scary proposition to bet against them But hey value is value Sometimes you got to grit your teeth and kind of see what happens there. Okay, so we're looking at the field at plus 115 But just and I also do want to ask you We got a lot of other markets here And if we think that South Carolina might be a tad bit overvalued Are you finding value elsewhere on the board at fandals an individual team you'd want to consider rather than taking that field bet at plus 115 I love usc at plus 3000. Um, I think they have of A relatively easy side of the bracket to get to the final four and then once you're at in the final four, I mean Anything can happen there. Um I mean the toughest team they have in their bracket is Probably ucon, but I think we'll talk about ucon a little bit and I have some reservations there With the huskies. So I think I think that usc number is really enticing Yeah, ucon the three seed in that region, but they're actually the team most likely to go to the final four in the region We'll talk about that region that region more in depth later on but usc 30 to 1 to win it all right now at fandals sports book Why do you think that number for usc is so long other than the fact that south carolina absorbs a lot of helium They've got ucon the region. What do you think pushes the odds out so long in usc? And why do you think that's not correct? You know, I'm not really sure. They're the one seed in that region. They beat stanford in the packed full title game. I mean, I think Maybe part of it is that Without that win over stanford. They aren't a one seed. So I think maybe there's some inflation there of like on the seeding line um I mean, there are also kind of a new face here. Um You know, they haven't really been This good until the last couple years their best players are freshmen. I can see why You know, they're not One of the top favorites, but I think it's they're a really talented team juju walkins might be As if she's at least a top five player in the country as a freshman I Think there's a lot to like about this Trojans team and I think A lot of value in them Okay, usc 30 to 1 led by juju walkins as you mentioned potentially the next superstar Across women's basketball and I'm sure we'll hear a lot about her name as this tournament goes along And there are a lot of superstar names across this entire field And we'll talk about plenty of them. But potentials of that one usc at 30 to 1 led by juju walkins there Let's talk about some individual regions now justin and talk about some final four odds there And let's start things off with the busiest region Which of course is going to be the south and the south is where we got katlyn clark and iowa But they've got to go through lsu other tough teams in this region as well So right now iowa despite that tough road Plus 115 treats the final four lsu plus 155 right now Is there value in iowa or is the path too tough? Do you want to go to anyone else here? What's your view of this very difficult south region? I think the path's a little too tough for iowa. Um, it's just a nightmare region for them. I think Because one of their biggest weaknesses is defending inside They're like right around division one average at opponent rem percent rem field go percentage And in this region the four seat is kansas state, which has aoka lee who's one of the best bigs in the country Then you have you know, whoever wins out of lsu ucla you're facing an elite big there and either Lord vets from ucla or um angel reese from lsu I think they match up kind of poorly by those teams And I still think they have a good shot of coming out of it, but I don't think it's To the level where they should have the number two odds to reach the final four Right right now their plus 115 is mentioned and it just sounds like it's mostly due to matchups now. Let's say They were in a tougher region, but the matchups specifically weren't as difficult with With the way that they match up with iowa defensively Is it those specific matchups and the way those two teams kind of meshed with where iowa is weakest defensively? That leads you to think that there might not be value in iowa here. Yeah, I think so I mean lsu i mean we saw last year that um The tigers are a bad matchup there um for iowa um I just think I mean caitlin clarkin can do anything right she can she can score 45 points and lead iowa To these wins against these great teams, but I just think The matchups are tough in this region. It's just not And they're also just so close. I think the top three teams are all you know Viable final four contenders kansas state If they had their best player healthy all year a locally missed some time I think if they might have a three seed resume too. It's just it doesn't really You know Work perfectly for the hawk eyes right so plus 115 too short for iowa Are there other teams you would consider in this south region or is it a stay away for you? I mean, I think I'd mostly stay away. I mean I might Throw a little down at kansas state plus 2100 just because like I think they're closer to those teams than One might expect And if they you know get past iowa, I think They do match up well because they have the size to compete against lsu or ucla um, you know, I think it's I mean, it's it's a good long shot bet there. I think um not one that I Necessarily anticipate being right on but you know Sometimes you have to do that. I know 21 21 to one though is is decent odds They're in kansas state If you think that they can contend with all the helium in this this region belonging to iowa and lsu Potentially kansas state can slip in there. You see l.a. Of course getting buzz as well But kansas state sounds like they're a pretty dangerous team too. Let's talk about the midwest You mentioned usc as the one seed here But they do have ucon and ucon's the three seed So ucon is actually the the shortest odds to make the final four from this region We actually have seen some movement against them though. Ucon is lengthened to plus 170 usc is plus 250 now you like usc to potentially be a long shot to win the tournament What are your thoughts on them when we look at just the midwest specifically? um, I think I think to me usc is my favorite comment of this region because I have reservations about ucon The metrics love the huskies. They're number two in the net They just overall they're third in net rating this season, but they A lot of that's because they ran through the big east and dominated the big east They lost by double digits to south carolina Notre Dame texas ucla and nc state When they faced those tough non-conference opponents they lost fairly handily right I think every one of those is by at least 11 points That gives me a lot of reservation about thinking ucon As a three seed can get out of this region And you were talking about the big east was that competition kind of I don't want to like downplay an entire conference But do you think that that conference may be overselling the quality of ucon based on what they did against as other teams? I think a little bit. I mean, I think the big east is a solid conference. I mean, it's yeah, it's right there in that kind of conversation for like 56 best conference in the country um, but I don't know. I mean when they faced non-conference opponents They were exposed a little so I do think the big east kind of propped up Some of those numbers for them Now what do you think led to those blowouts because one blowout is one thing? Like I mean on the men's side ucon got blown up by krayton that can happen for sure But with the women's team for ucon it was consistent when they faced those tougher teams when you think back to those games Can you think of any like, you know backwards diagnosis for what happened to lead to that or you know Is it just kind of like maybe they're not on that same tier as those teams? I think I think it's just not necessarily being on that same tier I mean, I think as he thought miss all the two games the season and I think with her healthy They are on that tier, but they're just missing that extra kind of spark on offense They have page beckers and alia edwards who are great players, but you know You need that kind of third star. I think and their third star Isn't healthy and it's it's I think that's a big part of why when they face these really good teams They just couldn't keep up Well pages minnesotan. I am minnesotan therefore. I'm legally obligated to root for ucon So I will root for them from that perspective, but I think the usc play is where I want to go with here So I can at least root for ucon emotionally while financially rooting for usc and kind of hedge my bets In that way as well Let's talk about the west justin because there's really no clear cut favorite here right now Stanford is at plus 180 Texas is shorting a bit. They were plus 180 now plus 165 So it's min interest in texas it seems then you get to mc state lurking a little bit longer You know no clear cut favorite here. So what's your view of the west overall? Yeah, I mean, this is this is probably I think for me the toughest region to predict Just because texas and stanford are so close Um Both are Really talented basketball teams that won a lot of games. They Both are good on offense good on defense. Um They both have one kind of big star player for texas. It's fresh and madison booker for stanford. It's camron brink I just feel like that's such a toss up with those two teams that I don't know if I'm even going I don't think I'm gonna bet either of them to make the final four just because I don't I don't know. I mean I think either one could have been a one seed or two seed there I think there's a Four than 15s there. It's it's close. It's tough. I don't I don't know And it sounds like the tough part is too is you can't really separate between those two But it also sounds like texas and stanford are both strong enough where you're not even Inclined to take a long shot or a longer shot at nc state It sounds like it's just that these two teams are really good and they happen to very evenly match which makes it kind of Lean towards just ignoring this region entirely until we get later in the dance Yeah, I mean I like nc state, but I don't think they necessarily match up that well the four seed there is gonzaga which Had a great year, but I it's tough to bet like a west coast conference team in a tournament That's been so dominated historically by power conference teams So it's just it's one that I'm just not super confident with And that's the luxury of betting justin you never have to bet what you don't want to So you can just sit back you can enjoy the games and let the texas and stanford battle Be the way to to get the enjoyment there But it's good to get you read on these conferences because I gotta fill out my bracket now But I was waiting till I talked to you to do so because I wanted to get your insights first before I did So now I feel a little bit more informed as I fill out my women's bracket That is justin carter makes you a check out his work on twitter at just cards finding matt her hoops stats I mentioned the simulations over there Rotobar as well for a full breakdown of the women's field of four this year justin I appreciate the time good luck to you with your bracket But also just thanks for swinging by for today and enjoy the basketball You're gonna see the next couple of weeks. Yeah, thanks for having me on I can't wait to watch some hoops Same here. I am very excited for sure And it should be a fun tournament as well You can find me on twitter at jim sonnis Check out fan dual research on twitter at fan dual research and make sure you subscribe to the show Covering the spread for the wins or the thursday and friday breakdowns coming up later on this week You can also find the show on the fan dual youtube page and fan dual tv plus Good luck with your women's brackets and enjoy the basketball We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow to break down thursday's games This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network