 What's up everyone welcome to the special event FOMC livestream Hope everybody's having a good day And I hope you can't hear the background noise because they are doing some serious remodeling on my building And it's loud in here, but hopefully you guys can't hear it. I Know can I know I know I need a I need an FOMC theme song. I agree. I was just thinking about that on the way in right so the plan today is To Enter this trade here here in a few minutes Few minutes before the FOMC data is released Hopefully get a little bit of a vol crush between now and when the press conference starts without too much movement Is the idea and then and then just after the FOMC presser starts and drum takes the stand. I'm gonna enter this one. That's the 30 delta long strangle So the idea there is we get a nice ball crush after the data is released After he kind of jumps on the mic for a couple minutes. So we got a nice ball contraction Then we get in with the long strangle and we get a decent size move enough to hit a profit target So Kelvin, thanks for posting that 30 delta Looks like it has performed better than the 50 delta straddle. So I'll be doing I'll be doing that one instead and I have not taken any zero DTE trades today If you've ever traded on FOMC, you know, if you try to sell premium at the open You almost a lot of times get zero theta decay. In fact, sometimes the premiums actually increase So you're sitting there with all the risk with none of the reward and that's why we Look to put it on right before the data is released. So I'm looking at the $4 strikes on each side In this case, that would be the 4470 and the 4425 that I'm buying the 10 cent wings is about 65 points away in this case. So currently trading around 775. I'll go ahead and Put my order in it 775 No takers at 775 about 770 Filled at 770. So now I'm gonna go in and put my OCO exits on the Just on the short strikes. So I'll put my first profit target at 30% so let's just call it I'll just put it at five bucks for now I'll put my stop at 1175 $4 over then I'll do another profit target at three bucks I'll end up taking these off before the press conference starts, but just putting something in there to have in place All right, ready to rock and roll Jerome. What do you got for us? data comes out in seven and a half minutes and Then 30 minutes later the press conference will start so technically 540 would be 30% So I'll change that to 540 So if I get 30% I will take off half and then I'll take the rest off if Once once we get till right before the press conference starts So as I was saying before if you've never traded if you've never sold premium on FOMC day You probably would have sold Something very similar to this right at the open and it'd be sitting right here. I didn't check the pricing right at the open I don't know if anybody else did but Most likely didn't get any decay would have been You'd have been sitting there and been able to get in at the exact same or maybe even better prices right now Then you would have at the open So what we should see Once the data is released we'll start to see some decay coming in You'll notice in the trade log that that 30% profit target of the 12 trades so going back to the FOMC meetings to the beginning of 2022. So there's there's been 12 That 30% profit target hit before the press conference started one two one two three four Five of 12 so almost half the time You'll get to that 30% profit target before just closing it. Oh wow State of junkie, that's interesting Good for you That is is not that is not a normal FOMC day. I would I would say that's a lot of decay for FOMC day The good news is the range has been super tight today. Looks like we got a high of about 44 61 A low of around 44 48 So it follows the the long strangle I don't put that on until about five minutes after the press conference starts So that'll go on at 235 eastern 135 central So whatever the 30 deltas are at that point MRP scroll up. There's a whole discussion about it this morning It just it tests better overall with the 30 delta Here's the test for the 30 delta strangle compare that to the 50 delta So the way I can't have compared it was margin required So if you do five contracts of the 50 delta Looking at about the last time it was about 10k. So that's what I was kind of basing it off of It's going to vary obviously based on Levels of implied volatility. So if you compare that to the 30 delta using 10 contracts margin requirement trying to get somewhat similar margin requirements, you can see the the 30 delta Much more profit using the same same capital requirements p and l 122 000 over the last 13 trades versus 81 000 Better cagger better capture rate All right about 40 seconds until the data release Yeah, that's exactly right laura You'll see that it actually does perform well. It's just your Your profit targets don't hit until after the data release But it's good to see you got some decent decay prior to You can see they pumped a little juice into these premiums after I entered All right, getting a little movement going Initial reaction markets moving a little bit lower starting to see a little bit of decay come in You can also see the you know the expected move on the zero day options to start the day was like 27 It's still at 24 that kind of gives you an idea of How well that premium holds up until now Getting a little move lower Stop is at 1170. It's currently trading at about nine bucks Oh, this is pretty normal Data comes out market's gonna move the hope is it just doesn't move too much So as expected interest rates left unchanged We get a bounce here. We should see some premium get sucked out The market movement. I mean the the zero interest rate change that was that was already known I mean that was pretty much a given What's going to move the market is is the statement and how the market perceives the future Movements of the Fed Jbpr it depends on how wide so if you set up an iron condor in toss as an example The buying power required is based on the width you use between your shorts and your longs So if you do spx and you go 50 wide that's usually about 5,000 per contract Minus the credit received Yeah, good point Ken. We've got to make sure because we're getting in and out in the same day. You want to you've got to have a Over 25k to avoid the pattern day trade Restrictions Agui, I'll do the long strangle at here in about 30 minutes I wouldn't plan on doing zero DTE with trade here yet. They're they're still working on their OCO orders Hopefully they get there. All right getting a bounce. It's starting to see a little decay coming in now I'm just looking at the analyze graph, you know when it bounced at the peak of that little bounce it was My spread was up You know with 10 contracts was up six or 700 bucks got back down now It's pretty much break even at this point Price is kind of though. We jumping around a lot Yep The exact center of your graph is where you're going to see the most decay. So, you know price was up there we'd We'd be in the profit obviously but and then of course on a move higher is typically when you see a little bit more decay If price is moving down Premium is usually holding better You should be able to do this something similar with option strat No, I did not do a rick at the open My plan today was just to do the the two FOMC trades Yeah, option strat I think you got two S's in there. I think it's just option strat.com There's a free the free version Gives you a lot of probably what you need There is a paid version That we have a discount to if you check the FAQ channel um I can't remember exactly what the difference is between the paid and the free but I know the free version gives you A decent risk profile graph All right, it's kind of keeps coming down to that 44 35 level and bouncing let's see if that's going to hold or if it's going to push through Yeah rules a lot of people with IB use that option strat Well, they keep kind of taking premium out and pumping it back in here over about 15 minutes in Spread It's currently trading pretty close to where we got in If we bounced up another five points, that would be pretty well centered that would That would put us in the profit a little bit, but not too crazy movement at this point discount, I've gotten the same same response We are aware of the issue, but we have no expected timeline on when it will be fixed You know, they better have a team working on it. You need to get a bigger team working on it Russell and Dow are still green nasdaq and es are red Gold and silver are green Notes are flat bonds are slightly green tenure yield down quarter percent Oil and natty gas are down grains are up Euro is you're in the pound are pretty flat bitcoin flat Vicks is slightly green now so definitely not seeing a whole lot of uh Volatility crush like we do sometimes Don't think we're going to get to our 30 profit target before the presser starts And bouncing above 42 Yep Have any right for the uh let's see stream Oh, you heard me talking anil you guys weren't supposed to hear that Did a little rib eye and zucchini On the uh blackstone I needed a good pre fomsc meal, you know Let's hope I just don't fall asleep though. That would kind of want to take a nap Maybe Jerome will keep me awake doubtful The old Jerome press conference that is a good that's good television to take a nap to Yeah, jbpr um so What i'm doing here for this fomsc trade is this here So just like the back test shows so the idea just to kind of refresh the idea behind this one is All the premium usually the premium holds until right before the data is released and so we put on a we sell premium right before Usually get some decay right after that without much of a movement And then um, so we So we benefit from that because a lot of the movement usually comes either during or after the press conference And so we just we put this on right before the data release catch some decay get out I'll get out here in about Here in about two minutes Currently the trade's up about 800 if we could a little bounce that would be ideal Here in the next couple minutes uh ryan pi position size with the expectation that I could take max loss on the uh Well, I do that for every trade, but yeah specifically for the Strangle that I'll put on here shortly Kind of similar to rick. I mean they're gonna hit my profit target or it's gonna End up where it ends up a little five-point push here the next minute would Be just fine start working my order here So 540 would be 30% currently trading at 690 So we're not gonna hit the 30% Let's see. I'm gonna put my order at 620 see if we get a little bounce here in the next minute Here we go. There we go A little more decay All right, so it's it's time to exit. It's about five minutes before the press conference Looks like we're up about 1400 closed at 655 and 640 So close half at 655 half at 640 so nice little quick profit got in at Got in at 770 out at 655 and 640 So a little lower 200 bucks per contract Excuse me a little over a dollar per contract So now next uh next on the agenda is the long strangle About 30 delta I'll wait till a few minutes after the press conference starts Yeah, my longs are pretty much worthless. Well, that one's worth. Yeah, I'd probably get out at five cents on the uh Calls and five cents on the put so yeah, I'll just keep those If we get a pretty crazy move, but I'll just hold on to those Maybe we'll get some value out of them if we do get a decent move one direction so 30 delta on the call side is About the 44 60 strike On the put side is the 44 30 As of now I'll give it another Five six seven minutes Jerome taking the stand in about 40 seconds 211 Oh, that's a Humpty Dumpty that's a portfolio margin trade Ryan pier you part of the portfolio margin group. Gotcha Yeah, check out the Humpty Dumpty trade. It's a beauty All right, so 30 delta now is about the 44 55 and the 44 25 It's currently trading at 9 45 Straighten at about 13 bucks earlier. So that just kind of gives you an idea of the decay not not at those strikes But at 30 delta I was looking at it pre Pre-fed Jerome is on the stand Get popping back up now at the 44 65 44 40 Give it a couple minutes This market took a little bounce as soon as Jerome took the stand S&P Nasdaq back in the green Now look at the vex fixes now was in the green just a little bit of going down two and a half percent So that's definitely seeing some decay come out now all right going in at the 65 calls and the 35 puts Give it a minute. Maybe we'll do the 60 calls 60 calls and 35 puts trying to get filled at 10 20 filled at 10 20 Long the 60 calls and the 35 puts we're closest to 30 delta All right, Jerome say something stupid so in at uh In at 10 20 so 10 20 times 0.35 Plus 10 so 13 75 call it is my profit target And i'm gonna do we'll close if that hits i'll close nine of 10 and then See if there's any runner potential Yep, 35 percent's the profit target So if we can get a quick push up to about 44 64 on the upside We've got a 15 point move call it a 44 30 on the downside it happens quickly Jerome looks tired today. He doesn't have his Spray spray a little look to him today. All right, so we're back above where we started Right at about where we started I should say if anybody held their Iron condor it's up at about 50 percent now Dick K. Just saw your message It's too bad Have to wait another day All right, Jerome's already taking questions Just use some of your food stamps dick K. I know you qualify If we get a move just anywhere close to the expected move for the day We'll be in good shape With our little long strangle down at 44 25 to the downside about 44 80 to the upside I scalped a little futures on that bounce cut a little bit of that bounce, but I'm gonna I'm gonna stay flat directionally here Vix is down 1.7. It was down like two and a half a few minutes ago So I know I did this in the past, but what is this uh f o m c iron condor the one we put in pre Pre data drop. What does this do if we hold it a little bit longer? Let's say 235 Not as good Holding it till 3 p.m. Eastern's about the same as when we took it off profit-wise Wind rate slightly less now that 225 right before the press conference looks to be the ideal one Vix back down minus 2.6 Uh, I've traded a one DTE strategy a tiny bit Here's a back test using 25 delta 100 points wide entering in the morning one DTE closing the trades Before the close market close basically This is all this last time I updated. This was may. Let's see what it looks like now Performance has been pretty flat Year to date On the one DTE on this version anyway But I haven't uh, I haven't done enough extensive testing on one DTE to Find anything That I'm just Gung-ho about but if you find something in your option omega testing Definitely feel free to post. I wouldn't mind having some One DTE stuff All right market hasn't really moved much gonna need a move to get out of our valley Valley O death our NDX double calendar. It's got a little little profit coming in Tgif What's up about Looks like about 1,800 or so Well, that's all over the place. I'm not sure exactly what I'd get filled out on that The six seven DTE that I left some on looks like it's currently trading at about 520 What did I? I got out of those at 565 so I did better taking them off previously I'll uh I'll hold those a little bit longer though Looks like our time fly Got in at 270 Price is bouncing all over the place Might be able to get at it 5% today SPX making a little move lower I'm going to put an order in Close my time fly at 325. I don't think that's going to hit That'll leave it sit See what happens profit target for the long FOMC strangle is at 1375 mines trading pretty close to where I entered Mine's trading at about nine bucks So you are You had the 4065. Okay, so you're A strike higher on each one Make sense Need a little continuation lower All right, my friends. I'm going to jump off here Uh, just I'm like a like a uh, like the back test shows. I'm going to either hit my profit target or Let that strangle expire Hopefully the former So for tomorrow Which is the 21st so no live stream in the morning and then um But we will stream tomorrow for power hour All right, all Good luck on your current trades. Hope they hit I'll post when mine hits Otherwise chat with you soon. Cheers