 Good morning. My name is John Ultraman. I run the Middle East program here at CSIS And it is a real pleasure to welcome you all here today for the rollout of the book that Haim Aqa wrote Crossroads the future of the US-Israeli strategic relationship We started this project in 2008 Because we had a sense that something was changing in the US-Israeli relationship Israeli United States had maintained an intimate relationship for years, but we saw at least some signs That this relationship may be entering a new phase One could argue and many people do that. There's no problem here at all Cooperation especially on the military to military level has never been better The level of aid and cooperation over the last few years including under President Obama has reached new heights and US-Israel Interaction on a wide number of fronts is really deep Others especially in Israel argued that President Obama has been intent on Distancing the United States from Israel as a way to improve its ties With the Arab and Muslim world and a third explanation is simply that we've reached this point where our politics are out of sync We're seeing some suggest the predictable mistrust between a left-leaning American president and a right-leaning Israeli prime minister Until Ariel Sharon built a strong relationship with the Bush administration Likud prime ministers had always had difficult relations with American presidents they say and this is no exception and What this study set out to do is whether one of these factors was at play or whether there was something else at work What we found were a set of trends that were really much deeper and much more important than many people want to admit The report certainly raises a number of uncomfortable issues But for anyone concerned with US Israel partnership and the trajectory of US Israeli relations It's an important study and one that we should all take very seriously This study was written by my partner in crime Chaim Alka Chaim has been my deputy for six years here at CSIS He's also a senior fellow in the Middle East program before joining us before I stole him from Brookings in 2005 He's a research analyst at the Saban Center for Middle East policy Reconcentrated on Arab on Israeli Palestinian issues and US foreign policy in the Middle East Chaim spent six years living in Jerusalem. We worked as a television news reporter He holds a BA from the University of Washington in Seattle and an MA from Columbia University School of International and Public Affairs To help Chaim roll out the study two friends of mine First is Oded Iran director of the Institute for National Security Studies, which is really one of Israel's leading Thinktanks. He joined INSS in July 2008 Following a very long and distinguished career in Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a number of other government positions His most recent post before joining INSS Dr. Iran served as the world Jewish Congress representative in Israel and the Secretary General of the WJC Israel branch from 2002 to 2007 he served as Israel's ambassador to the European Union covering NATO prior to that He was Israel's ambassador to Jordan head of Israel's negotiations team with the Palestinians Other previous positions include Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Deputy Chief of Mission of the Israeli Embassy in Washington He serves as an advisor to the Senate Knesset subcommittee on foreign affairs and has a PhD from the London School of Economics Dov Zakheim Is the former undersecretary of Defense Comptroller and Chief Financial Officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and is also a senior advisor with CSIS During the 2000 presidential campaign He serves as a senior foreign policy advisor to then Governor George W. Bush who I think did well after that, right? Yeah He has a long and distinguished career in public service and held the number of senior posts in the Defense Department from 1981 to 87 and prior to that he was a principal analyst the National Security and International Affairs Division of the Congressional Budget Office In addition to teaching as an adjunct professor at the National War College, Yashivi University, Columbia University and Trinity College in Hartford, Connecticut Dr. Zakheim has served on a number of government corporate nonprofit and charitable boards including one with me An authored number of books and articles he has a doctorate in economics and politics from St. Anthony's College University of Oxford and It's a three-time recipient of the Defense Department's highest civilian award. So we'll start with Chaim and then we'll go to our two distinguished commentators and then we'll open up the floor to you for discussion So I give to you Chaim Maka. I haven't said anything yet. Are you applauding John? I'm not sure It's great to see everyone here today. Thank you for coming to this rollout I have to admit that this is probably the most difficult and challenging project. I've ever worked on for many reasons I'm only going to share one of those reasons with you it because Following US-Israeli relations is sort of like following the ups and downs of someone with a split personality disorder If you follow the headlines you think that the relationship has on the one hand never been better and we've seen as John mentioned military cooperation under Juniper Cobra exercise where we had several thousand Israeli and American soldiers working together testing ballistic missile defense systems and other joint fighting capabilities Prime Minister Netanyahu's Speech before a joint session of Congress the level of aid Conversely if you follow the headlines you'd think that the relationship has never been worse We saw the vice president Joe Biden's visit to Israel which ended in disaster last spring the ongoing Tension between President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu, but what I set out to do here is to really dive underneath the surface underneath the headlines and try to under stand the Detentions the trends the dynamics under the surface and try to understand how that tension has been Unravelling over the last several years, but I didn't start with President Obama I didn't start with the election of President Obama I went much further back because I think many of the trends that I've outlined in the book have been going on for the last Several decades if not more Now fortunately or unfortunately there is plenty of material to work with and that's in part because US the US Israeli relationship and partnership has been so deep and ingrained in the foreign policies and National security structures of both countries. It's been a constant for the last four decades and is mutually beneficial to both countries But what became increasingly clear in the course of my research is that the United States and Israel are both changing in Unforeseen ways and those changes are straining the partnership in new ways, which are more difficult to reconcile The change is inevitable societies change politics change strategic outlooks can change and I think US bilateral Relationships with many important allies are changing if we look at the relationship with Turkey with Egypt with Saudi Arabia all of these Relationships need a frank assessment of where they are and understanding of how the relationship has changed over time But in the case of Israel in the United States what I found was that demographic Social and political changes in both countries are now increasingly intersecting with diverging strategic outlooks and priorities Which are slowly eroding the two key pillars of the partnership the political pillar and the strategic pillar So what has contributed to this tension? I want to start with the political side looking at Israel Israeli society is very different than the Israel most Americans think they know most Americans still have outdated Concepts of what Israel is and Ambassador Lewis mentioned the movie in the book Exodus In the forward to this book and that helped shape the way that Americans think of Israel as a liberal secular society many of the Israeli Interlocutors with the Americans over the years have spoken English well They've been educated in the West and they share a similar world view to most Americans but there have been some important shifts over the last several decades and Social and demographic changes in Israel are slowly Changing the values and priorities of Israeli society and those changes are reshaping Israeli politics and policies and Straining relations with the United States. I want to point out two key trends here in the presentation There's a lot more to chew on in the book, but the first key trend is that in the last generation We've seen once marginal communities in Israel primarily the ultra orthodox or the Haridim and the Russian speaking immigrants to Israel That came in the 1990s increasingly interacting with Israeli public life as the secular elite Retreat from the public space the secular elite being the part of Israel that most Americans have always interacted with Now demographics tell part of this story if you look at the Russian speaking community And I'm just going to refer to them as Russians even though they come from Many countries many former republics of the Soviet Union nearly 12% of the Israeli population is now made up of Russian speaking Israelis and let's face it these Russian speaking Israelis generally tend to have a more hawkish Outlook on foreign policy and national security studies And this is in part the result of the fact that these immigrants came to Israel in the early 1990s when Israel was facing a Massive wave of suicide attacks and heightened terrorism against Israeli civilians and the Russians just like everybody in Israeli society Were affected by that there are lots of polls taken by different organizations in Israel the Geneva initiative The Israel Democracy Institute which also demonstrate that the Russian community has a much higher Intolerance of Palestinians. There's a much higher level of Russians that seek to encourage Israeli Arab immigration from Israel More importantly and what I found more interesting in my research are the trends in the ultra orthodox or the Haridi community Nearly 10% of the Israeli population today is ultra orthodox in 1948 when the state with us was established They they accounted for about one and a half percent So there's been a tremendous population growth in the ultra orthodox community in part because of their large birth rate They have about six point seven children per family, which is almost three times as high as the national average in Israel but this demographic that these this the population boom in the ultra orthodox community has Had several effects on the community one Is that the ultra orthodox community has sought housing? opportunities outside of Israel the main population centers of Israel in the Settlements primarily in the West Bank and along the 1967 border. So some statistics compiled By by peace now in Israel have demonstrated that nearly one-third of all Israeli citizens living in the West Bank now Excluding East Jerusalem are ultra orthodox and today nearly 70% of all children born in the West Bank are ultra orthodox So one of the one of the the Results has been that ultra orthodox political parties have become key champions and supporters of Israeli construction Policies both in East Jerusalem and the West Bank Higher rates of poverty in the ultra orthodox community are also taking its toll And this again is related to the population boom Haridim are seeking more economic opportunity outside of their closed System and looking for jobs and higher education Outside of the Haridic community and the government recognizes this the military in Israel recognizes this There are a number of state funded and private colleges now in Israel Which are trying to cater to the ultra orthodox to try to train them for the job market to try to give degrees in business administration other kinds of computer technologies to try to make Haridim more competitive in the job market But they're growing interaction at the same time with mainstream Israeli society Combined with their growing numbers will definitely make Haridim a growing factor in Israeli life and politics going forward now What's interesting is that a generation ago these communities both the Russians and the Haridim were really focused on Primarily on narrowly defined communal interest the Russians were focused on immigration absorption job retraining Employment learning Hebrew etc. The orthodox community was focusing primarily on education and and social welfare benefit issues and now we see them The needs of these communities changing and driving them increasingly to participate in national security and foreign policy debates Such as settlement construction as I mentioned and Palestinian negotiations Two issues that bring them in direct conflict with long-standing US policies Now demographics only tell part of the story the second key trend that I want to point out is the breakdown of the left in Israeli politics as the historic counterweight to the right wing and this Consolidation of a center-right political constellation in Israel in the past some formation of labor was always the Counterweight to the Likud liberal Zionism always had a more nationalistic or revisionist counterpart, and they balanced each other today That political counterweight is not labor, but Kadima which has much less of an affinity and connection to the liberal principles of Israel's founders and this Israeli politics have a straight essentially become a Struggle between right and center-right I think that the clearest indication of this is the breakdown of Knesset seats if you look at the 1999 Knesset elections left-wing political parties Controlled about half the seats in the Knesset in the last election in 2009 left-wing Including Arab political parties control only 30 seats out of 120 seats in the Knesset So essentially half the number they did in 1999 What the combination of these trends suggests is that Israel is moving farther away Both socially and politically from the idea of a secular liberal state which has been such an important part of the US Israel affinity Now just like Israeli society is changing America is changing as well And in particular the politics of support for Israel is changing Again, I want to point out two key dynamics Support for Israel first of all support for Israel remains strong again This is sort of the paradox if you look at just the headlines or some of the polls You'd think that the situation has never been better a Gallup poll in 2010 for example illustrated that 63% of Americans Favor the Israeli narrative or are more sympathetic to Israel than they are to the Palestinians And this is sort of a record breaking poll in terms of those numbers congressional support remains high as Well, but I think the nature of that support is changing and we can see that in several ways First is the growing estrangement of the liberal American Jewish community and They're feeling of alienation from from Israel I'm not the first one to raise this obviously and this is not a new trend This is essentially a trend that has been evolving since the early 1980s first with the invasion of Lebanon the war in Lebanon Then with the Intifada, but we've seen this evolve into more of a generational Issue where younger the younger generation of American Jews Are more disaffected and I think Peter Beynart did a good job of articulating this idea and laying it out in his article There's lots of polling done by this as well The Jewish identity projects even Cohen Ari Kellman have looked at this and seen that the polling numbers of American Jews Demonstrate that they're much less supportive of Israel than people in their parents or grandparents generation. I Think part of this liberal disaffection with Israel reflects a disappointment that Israel is drifting from its secular liberal roots And not living up to an ideal of Israel that many Americans have of Israel as a progressive state Now this is partly a result of a misreading I think a fundamental risk misreading of Israeli society and politics over the last several generations and a lack of Interaction between most Americans and these more diverse segments of Israeli society The one segment I should say in American politics where we see the opposite trend or in the in the American Jewish community is In the Orthodox Jewish community where we see a shift to more unconditional support Whereas liberal Americans are moving to more conditional support The second important trend that I want to carry out that I want to point out is That Israel is becoming a political tool in an increasingly partisan battle in American politics now. We've seen this Before the midterm elections. There were some Republicans that tried to introduce a resolution favoring Israel you Israel's use of any means necessary including military force to deal with the Iranian threat in An effort to appeal to pro-Israel voters. There are other examples as well But I think the key point here is that while Republican support for Israel is becoming more Unconditional many Democratic supporters find it increasingly difficult to justify Israeli Policies that they see as counterproductive and this growing partisanship that we're seeing further alienates many Democrats Who believe that Israel is losing one of its last opportunities to resolve the Palestinian issues? Now some Israelis are comforted by this strong Republican identification and support with Israel But it seems that the reput the debates within the Republican Party within the conservative movement and within the Tea Party Movements make that support less certain over time For nearly three decades bipartisan support for Israel has contributed to the consistency and stability of us Israeli relations and should it continue to erode the Relationship will start looking very different That's the political side looking at the strategic side For much of the last few decades Israel in the United States have generally shared Common strategic outlooks and similar assessments of their regional threats and challenges But increasingly Israelis and American strategic priorities threat perceptions and understandings of the Middle East diverge at a time of great uncertainty and turmoil in the Middle East Iran and the Palestinian issue are obviously the most important examples of this strategic divergence the United States government Believes that it's doing all it can to leave the international effort against Iran's nuclear ambitions Yet many Israeli officials believe that America's unwillingness to threaten Iran with force not only strengthens Iran's resolve But makes nuclear Iran inevitable Israelis increasingly question whether the US has the will to confront Iran and whether Israel can rely on the United States at the moment of truth in a future confrontation between Israel and Iran on The Palestinian issue the US government and national security establishment increasingly believes that resolving the Israeli Palestinian conflict is a national interest of the United States By this logic Israeli actions that undermine chances for a negotiated settlement undermine US interests Israel meanwhile continues to insist that it's not that the Palestinian issue is not a driver of instability in the region Now there's a paradox here that Israel wants to see a resolution of the Iranian issue yet It wants to manage the Palestinian issue Meanwhile, the US is managing the Iranian threat While it seeks to resolve the Palestinian issue the Arab Spring is another example where US and Israeli perceptions and Priorities are completely at odds the US sees an unprecedented opportunity To change and improve Arab governance and political represent representation in the Middle East Israel on the other hand sees an unraveling of the status quo, which has largely preserved regional stability for the last three decades more than in the past The US and Israel both seek different outcomes and solutions to their challenges and both perceive that the policy choices of the other are Undermining their own interests now all of these points Heighten Israeli doubts about America's commitment to Israel's security And there's a growing sentiment in Israel that you hear from talking to Israeli officials and the general population There's a growing sentiment that Israel can only rely on itself So how can the US and Israel start addressing these changes in order to weather the uncertainty and build a stronger Partnership for the future. This is this is the hard part. This is the part that I wrestled with the most and I'm only going to give you a few points here, but The first important point I think is that the US and Israel need to start working together to restore a sense of common mission If you look at the history of US-Israeli relations for the last four decades The US and Israel have always shared a common mission going back to the Cold War through the search for peace in the Middle East in the 1990s and then the common fight against terrorism after 9-11 Today not only is it difficult to identify a common mission But Israeli and US policies seem to be working across purposes on many key issues The burden is largely on Israel in my in my assessment because it has the most at stake from a further deterioration of This relationship for several decades Israel has proven to the United States that it's an asset to the US in the Middle East Now as the region is undergoing so much change it has to again prove that it's still an asset in the pursuit of US interest in the region Part of this effort has to be a joint strategy to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue as long as the Israeli-Palestinian issue Persists it will strain US Israeli relations Not because the Israeli-Palestinian issue is the root of all evil in the Middle East Not because the Israeli-Palestinian issue drives all of the uncertainty and tension But because as long as the conflict persists it will be manipulated by political actors across the region to undermine the United States and Israel the second takeaway that that I that I Came up with was that or realized was that the US and Israel need to have a more frank discussion at the highest levels of their Outstanding issues and differences including clarifying the responsibilities and commitments of each actor and I go into this in detail In the conclusion of the report and Finally and this is one of the most difficult conclusions that I came to But Israel in the US need to recognize that the future will be very different than the past And I think it many Israelis including in the Israeli government across the Israeli government already recognized that the United States is changing They know that the US is facing a difficult economic crisis gridlocked politics and fatigue from nearly a decade of war in the Middle East For its own sake Israel needs to address the issue of its deep dependence on the United States And I think the best way to strengthen Israel's long-term security and Viability is by making it less dependent on the United States for diplomatic and military support now That's not an answer to the Iranian threat It's not going to solve necessarily Israel's international isolation But it will go a long way to relieving some of the doubt and uncertainties in US Israeli relations This is a subject of intense debate in the Israeli government now and again Here's another paradox a difficult paradox because at a time when Israel is feeling the strongest impetus to become more Self-reliant its dependence on the US to help manage its diplomatic and security challenges is only growing Increasing and growing deeper. I can think we can look at to the UN vote next week managing the Iranian threat managing Israeli Turkish relations and Israel's growing international isolation and delegitimizations Delegitimization Now none of these trends on their own can lead to an erosion of the partnership But the combination of all of these trends together is already taking a toll I think the dramatic events in the Middle East over the last six months have highlighted Or reminded us that there are no certainties in such a fluid environment the strength and durability of The US Israeli relationship has always been its ability to adapt to changing circumstances Think Israel in the United States now need to acknowledge and understand these changes at a time when there's still an opportunity To adapt so there's a lot more in the report I encourage you to read it before I sit down I do want to take just a minute to acknowledge and think a lot of people that really helped contribute to this report and to My understanding of these issues a lot of people in Israel US and Israeli government officials former officials that I spoke with mostly off the record as well as a lot of other People that have been involved in US Israeli relations for decades A lot of other people as well just to name a few some of my colleagues here at CSIS Andrew Schwartz Craig Cohen Michael Jubin. I also benefited greatly from the contribution of an advisory board that I put together With a wealth of knowledge about US Israeli relations included Dove Zakheim General James Jamerson retired from the United States Air Force Ambassador Martin Indyk John McLaughlin and Ambassador Sam Lewis and I'm especially grateful to Dove Zakheim for participating here today And for sharing so much of your knowledge and time with me and of course I also want to acknowledge Ambassador Lewis who spent many many sessions talking through these these issues sharing his wisdom and Writing such a thoughtful forward. I also want to thank Oded Iran for coming such a far way Such a long distance to participate with us and share your insight last year CSIS and INSS convened Full-day conference of Israeli officials and former officials in Tel Aviv at INSS where we debated a lot of these issues That you'll find in the report I'm also indebted to John Alterman for his guidance on this project Indebted and there are lots of other other things I can think of John has been a mentor and a friend throughout these last six years at CSIS and I continue to learn from him every day and and I'm grateful for his wisdom and guidance I also want to thank my brother who's who made it all the way out here from the west coast And of course finally my wife Naomi who's had to put up with me over the last year and a half As I completed and wrestled this project. I couldn't have done it without her So thank you for your attention. I look forward to the question and answer session Good morning, everyone. It's really nice to be back. I think John you mentioned crime So to be back at the scene of the crime after so many years that I spent here There were no crimes. They were only good things that we tried to do together one Amendment John to the introduction. I am the current director of INSS My success or sits on the almost yard and sits on the front row and I wish I wish you success and I Think that this is a very interesting Attempt to deal with the issues of the relations between the two states And I'm not saying it facetiously. I honestly believe that this is one of the best attempts and there are several Every now and then something else comes out and as you know other institutions are working on the same theme I I Wrote with me the Washington Post not because I thought that I'm going to bore myself But and read the newspaper, but there's a paragraph in today's front page About the US administration warning both to both the Israelis and Palestinians about the outcome of the Debate in the UN and it says but those warning F being ignored not only by the Palestinian leadership that feels betrayed By the Obama administration But also by an Israeli government that receives billions of dollars a year in US military and other aid I think this says a lot in one paragraph And then if you are the prime minister of Israel and you sit today and you read the American newspapers and so you read this paragraph, but on the other end you read the article written by Rick Perry in the Wall Street Journal And you reach the conclusion if you are the prime minister of Israel the only thing I have to do is to wait for 14 months And everything will be okay. Why do I have to rush? And I think that this in a nutshell I mean it depicts the whole nature of the relations the expectations and the perceptions that each side as of each other my My my critique of the Of the essay the Experiment in exploring the relations and the background relations Is on several issues there is and it always happens It's not the first time that there is an attempt to glorify the past and depict or paint the present in very dark colors and Let me take you in the few minutes that I have to several Several milestones in the relations bilateral relations 67 to 90 to 1970 1967 to 1970 the Rogers plan Which is to this very minute? The policy of the United States hasn't changed one Iota The 1967 lines with minor rectifications minor alterations, whatever you want to call them. There were two different I think Formula used in two different occasion, but this is the gist of the of the of the plan Not After consultations with Israel, they didn't ask the Israelis and probably to the To the better that they didn't ask the Israeli government But this is the this is the policy of the United States this very day 1969 1973 Kissinger's efforts and our many Israelis who have misgivings about the end game of the 1973 which was A lot to a large extent the outcome of Kissinger's efforts 1978-79 and Sam Lewis is here to testify Very bumpy relations between the president of the United States and the prime minister of Israel the two first years of a president Reagan 1981-1982 I can't recall any more bumpier years than these two years Golanites law the entry into Lebanon they a works They attack which is at that time on the Amos was Involved this the attack on the Ozerac reactor in in in Baghdad 56 different friction point Between the two administrations Lebanon at the Reagan for the first September Reagan plan in 1982 rejected out of end once again Sam can tell us vividly the event 1991 the war the first Iraqi war I sat here in the Washington Institute writing a paper which I never published on the Reprocussions of the war on Israel deterrence 42 scud missiles falling in Israel on Israel and Israel is not reacting someone else is reacting but on Israel I Wonder whether I should not publish it 1993 the Oslo agreements Not with the United States the Israeli government rightly or wrongly does it without the United States You can say the same thing about Jordan although there was a Bigger American roller and so when you look at it from the historical point of view and you compare it to the current day Situation between the two states it can be misleading and I wrote an article in our one of our IMSS publications about the perception of Obama President Obama in Israel It wasn't the one who invented the word reassessment in their relations as a result of which Plains were stopped for several months to Israel It wasn't the one who stopped long guarantees to the Israeli government as did the Bush senior President Bush didn't on the country He added 205 million a dollars to the assistance Of the United States to Israel for for iron down the anti-missiles a System that is now successfully employed on the borders of Israel and and the Gaza Strip and one of my arguments with the thesis in this in in your in your essay Chai is the role of the Orthodox Sephardic community and Russian communities in Israel The same years when the United States decided on its current Policy towards the whole question of the territories 1969 Where the years when Israel decided on its policy and it's the policy has not changed and it was an Ashkenazi non-orthodox government which did they are famous they are famous not even famous in Israel But certainly not in Washington People like Israel Galilee Who was the father of the current Israeli policy towards the West Bank? Settlements have began then led by by the labor party the dovish president of Israel and I'm not pretty signing. I'm giving you the historical background The dovish president of Israel Shimon Paris is More responsible for the settlement that many other Israeli current Israeli leaders people who cannot be where you would today you would call them our doubts and And moderates, but they are the ones who have created the facts on the ground and This is going to be the major issue between us and and the United States is Already has been and and will be and the Palestinians and That is by one of the major arguments that I have with the with the publication with that with your essay It is true that today It is the picture which you painted is correct is accurate. This is the demographics of Israel But by the time Sephardic community the Sephardic community became involved in Israeli politics Mostly because it was rejected by the labor party and the current leaders have found somewhere else to go And that was the liquid party And when the Russian immigrant immigrants became involved in politics You had already somewhere between 150 to 200,000 settlers in the West Bank So this is what my my my major comment on on this and it's important to have the The historical framework I think to understand that the current problems in their relations then I Agree with you There is a danger of an erosion to the perception American perception of Israel as a democracy You mentioned one element and that has to do On the issue of not only their relations between the Israelis and Palestinians. I would add to it Attempts some of them successful Unfortunately at legislating anti-democratic laws in Israel. I Am I Put it mildly concerned In in about a year I could reduce or eliminate the word mildly if it if the trend continues That is a serious danger in my view not only to the perception mostly to the Israeli society and then to the image of Israel in the American public opinion Second issue is of course, which you mentioned and rightly so the whole It's not the same thing, but the Iran and The Arab Spring two different issues I Would just add that in my view the spark which started or ignited the Arab Spring Came from Iran the elections in 2009 were hundreds of Thousands of Iranians went to the street and they could be watched all over the Arab world And I think that this was the spark that ignited The Arab Spring, but that's a secondary issue There is and then I tie it or I link it to a statement which you make If I'm not mistaken. Yes page 105. You say that solving the Palestinian issue would remove a key issue of contention and Here I it's that's not the issue of this morning discussion, but I have a serious problem not only because of the current difficulties in the negotiations the absence of negotiations and the forthcoming debate in the UN There is let me be provocative for a second There is a problem of Possibility that there won't be a two-state solution that there will be a six-state solution Four Palestinians and two Jewish states Four Palestinians is the one in the West Bank the one in Gaza the one in Israel itself It's a coming problem And one in Jordan. I'm slightly facetious. I'm slightly You know Exaggerating but there is a danger there and the two Jewish states are the one in Israel itself and the one on the West Bank As it becoming and I come back to the issue of the settlements Last week the government of Israel finally found the courage to remove three houses in an unauthorized settlement three houses It took one thousand policemen One thousand policemen for three houses Now if tomorrow morning the Palestinians wake up and say, you know what Israel is you convince us There's a zero missing you Said two minutes And If tomorrow morning the Palestinians come you convinced us Israelis and we agree to the security fence as the final border between us Even then the Israeli government will have to evacuate about 60 to 70,000 settlers some of them you Rightly describe them as orthodox Ultra orthodox very hawkish in the views high It will be a serious problem now It doesn't mean that I'm against the solution because of that of the two state on the country. I Think that one of their mistakes is that not only the US and the US administration Doesn't get an echo From Jerusalem to its warnings, but I think that it's slightly too intimidated to do certain things in this security council I would turn the debate in the UN To a security council resolution, which takes into account some of the Wishes of the Palestinians and some of the wishes of the Israelis for example The definition of Israel as the Jewish state you can put it in the security count. What are the Palestinians like it or not? You don't have to say that the borders will be exactly the 67 line You can say what you said in 69 in the Rogers play and other elements that can be constructive towards Solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict Now the last thing about the strategic dialogue I'm not so sure given the history of their relations and given the Problems the objective problems in the issues on which we may differ Israel and the United States that what it takes is a structural or structured Strategic dialogue What is missing as we can see today? Is an intimate dialogue between the number one in Washington and the number one in Jerusalem? And if you don't have this Then the officials in a high ranking and the lower ranking officials and generals etc. Can meet once a week and They will achieve very little That has been If I look at the history of their relations since 67 at least this has been my Observation when Rabin and Clinton for example at this intimate dialogue a lot could be achieved between the two leaders When it When this in intimacy is not there between to say the least between Netanyahu and Obama What the results can also be seen? I'm not saying that it Necessity it's autumn. There is an automaticity there that if you have the intimate dialogue between the leaders It produces also the understanding between The two account is but if it isn't there It will be very difficult to achieve this otherwise. Thank you very much I'm gonna wave my two-minute rebuttal and let the Dovzak I'm speak Well, it's hard for me in a couple of ways One is I happen to like the book And so a lot of what I thought I was gonna say has already been said by Chaim But then Odette spoke and so I've really changed my notes I Think in many ways Odette who served here reflects what I think is the biggest problem the Israelis have Israelis really think they know the United States. I mean they really do and Especially if they speak with American accents And any of you who've lived abroad for more than a year know that when you come home, it ain't the same country So There's a problem right there if you're starting off with the wrong premises you get yourself in trouble pretty quickly There's no doubt that a significant majority of Americans support Israel But you know, it's like most polling questions. You got to get into the details. It's the nature of the question you ask It's not clear that that same significant majority supports Israeli policies regarding the Palestinians or Supports the Israeli approach to peace the way it's currently being conducted and If you look at the locus of support and here I think Odette makes a mistake that a lot of Israelis make He says well, you know look at American policy in 1969 Sure, but we're not living in 1969. We're not even living in 1999 or 2009 and so you've got to look at the underlying pressures and I'm just speaking from the American side of it I got involved in a minor hassle with the Israelis about 25 years ago over the Levy airplane Israeli society has changed since then so has American society so has the cloud of American Jewish society And there's all these things change and they feed up to to the leaders whoever those leaders might be I mean in the 1960s after the Six Day War and the 70s Oh, who are the real you know critics of Israel was the new left and the isolationist right? Now you've got pretty much most traditional liberals who now like to call themselves progressives because they know liberals a dirty word in this country You've got liberal Jews The reform movement is the largest I'm orthodox so I'm speaking as an outsider about this There are four movements the largest or a Jewish movement in this country by far The conservative movement is actually falling apart in the orthodox movement still only about 10 or 15 percent Their form movement is driven by social justice that is the central tenet of how their form movement looks at Judaism and a lot of American reform Jews and the Arab eyes Look at what's going on and what has gone on in Israel for the last 20 odd years and say that ain't social justice Now you can close your eyes to it and Israelis do There was a recent report of Apparently a group of young conservative rabbinical trainees that the conservative Jewish logical seminary Have said that they are not prepared to support Israel and these are the people gonna be the next rabbis And they're not prepared to support Israel That didn't happen 25 years ago and certainly not in 1969 Now some things may change those attitudes back again As long as Palestinian ambassadors say that no Jew can ever enter Palestine That's the best way to unite the American Jewish community and maybe a lot of others besides and I'm sure there are a lot of people on the Israeli Right who keep hoping that the Palestinians keep saying those sorts of things because as apparently somebody remarked on it The last time somebody said that his name was Hitler So, you know, but you can't bank on that you can't bank on somebody being so stupid over and over again And you just have to look at the trends now Part of what the reason for disillusionment with Israel is as Chaim said the the American Jewish image of Israel is the pretty girl wearing that funny little hat Okay, it's called a cova temple and most American Jews have the Sort of the the memory which is fading with the younger people, but you know in 1969 One cousin emigrated from Eastern Europe to Israel One cousin emigrated to the United States or Canada or Australia or something like that and they both spoke Yiddish Well, that doesn't happen anymore The only people who speak Yiddish in this country or the ultra orthodox who by the way Don't support the state of Israel and they don't live on the West Bank to live in Brooklyn Most young American Jews don't speak Yiddish and they certainly don't speak Russian Now it's true. They were Russian Jews in 1991 and that was one of the reasons why Shamir decided to hold back He didn't want to stop the emigration from from Russia but in 1991 Russian Jews weren't foreign ministers of Israel and practically persona non grata in this country The thing about and here Chime didn't make it explicit, but this is this is my impression and My impression of why American Jews are so uncomfortable and maybe and many other Americans besides is That if you take the Russian Jews again writ large former Soviet Union Jews the ultra orthodox And the Oriental Jews none of them have a legacy of democracy None zero So there's a total cognitive dissonance there American Jews come to Israel American Jewish leaders come to Israel and they speak to people who speak English As they say they don't speak Russian. They don't speak Arabic. They don't speak Yiddish So they don't even talk to these kinds of folks They like to speak to those who speak with their own their own language and very often with their own accents the American Jewish leadership Pretty much does the same thing Plus they want to maintain access to Israeli leaders because that helps them have access to American leaders Well, if you're gonna start being critical and you're gonna start telling them off You know sort of for those of you a certain age do an earth the kit to Lyndon Johnson You're not gonna get your photo ops and more important. You're not gonna have access here So You've got something going on in the American Jewish community and the American community at large That just wasn't there Even when you had Rogers plans or Kissinger, you know, even Zach I'm shooting down aircraft The other thing is that I Don't think Israelis fully buy into the fact that whether right or wrong is in material This peace process is a major priority for the United States It just is and it's almost across the board Because they've been we've all been talking about two state solutions for so long that we've believed it and so the question is Why haven't we done it? Now, I think Odette is right. It tends to be the locals who actually make these deals We were not behind Oslo last time I checked Oslo's not in the United States Although there may be some small town in Minnesota called Oslo But We are the ones who get you once you once they get into the peace process red zone We're the ones who get them over the go line. So we still have to play but there is a belief in this country that this needs to happen and It is a belief that Includes not just the realist Republicans not just the liberals But the national security community not the national security bureaucracy, but the national security community Anybody who deals this business. This has been my Israel week This is my third I think or fourth Israel discussion this week because the UN has generated it. It is amazing I'd say nine out of ten people are Articulating what I'm telling you now and that may be too small a percentage and Israelis have trouble coming to terms with that They they just as we see the the pretty girl with that with the funny hat They see the Americans always supporting them regardless and oh my god. We'll just go to the Congress will get what we want But it's not a matter of money anymore First of all because three billion dollars or even four billion dollars Doesn't make as much a difference to the Israeli GDP as it once did When I was in the government in the 80s, they were getting three billion dollars So now they're getting what four give or take I don't even think it reaches four If you took that money out of the Israeli defense budget big deal, we have to worry about 500 billion plus right now So I'm not exactly overwhelmed But to think that just because we're giving you a couple of hundred million dollars for a given program Demonstrates that nothing has changed Well, first of all, let me tell you when I was the comptroller and you know I'd get these calls, you know, why are we putting money into? Arrow and I would tell them look if you don't put it in Congress will put more in It's not clear to me that in the current and that's why the money went for arrow But it's not clear to me that in the current environment Congress is gonna go out of its way to put more money into Israel Not when we've got these huge problems and a super committee's looking at 1.2 trillion to take out of the budget and Then you look at Israel's GDP They're not suffering like the Spanish or the Portuguese who roughly actually Portuguese don't even have the GDP of Israel but Spain more or less does and You ask yourself is that really the biggest deal of all and then you you know You hear what Bob Gates says and okay You write him off as a realist Republican and you forget that he was the most effective secretary of defense in decades And he talks about Israel being ungrateful and you know what that is not a unique perception I'll tell you an anecdotes in my book that I just wrote during I was the Troop collector and fund collector for Iraq. I had a tin cup The Israelis come to me and they say we got this great list of stuff that you guys can use in Iraq And I said fabulous and they give me the list and I say okay, when can we get it? They said well, you know you have to pay for it and I said well Nobody else is asking us to pay for what they give us and anyway, we've already paid for it once Israelis just sometimes don't get it And this isn't policy. This is understanding what that does to this country to our people to the people who deal with them Dave Petraeus is in an anti-Semite But when Dave Petraeus goes and says that the that trouble on the peace process was complicating his life as head of central command He is saying nothing different than every other head of central command that said forever and oh by the way You might say well central command their clientele or Arabs He has you know, they say the same thing after they leave central command after they move to other jobs Because it's not that it solves the entire Middle Eastern problem But particularly if you want to keep Israel's most likely closest allies in the region who are the GCC monarchies plus Jordan and Morocco who'll be coming in if you want to keep them in the fold and oh by the way Those are the ones that worry the most about Iran Don't make their lives more difficult don't guarantee that they will be overthrown and if you think about Some of the arguments that have been made over the years By Israeli supporters in this country to try to resonate with Americans You begin to see that those are wearing thin for example Israel is the only democracy in the Middle East After Arab Spring we'll see maybe it still will be But maybe it won't be Israel is our most reliable ally well Not everybody thinks that if they were our most reliable ally. Why haven't they been in a single American coalition ever put together? Okay, not one We wanted Israel out out in 1991 out in 2001 out in 2003 It's not that it's unreliable It's just that it's complicated and see you can't just go and say we're the most reliable ally We're a democracy and you heard as Chaim point as even Odette pointed out That Israelis themselves are belly aching about whether their country's still a democracy That's not me. That's so dead. You just heard him. He raised it shared values Again as I pointed out we don't share values with Russian Israelis. We just don't we don't share values with ultra orthodox Israelis unless you're living in Williamsburg in Brooklyn and We don't share values with many of the Oriental Jews. That's not a bad thing. It's not a good thing It's a thing there's an Israeli word for it. Uvda fact. You're stuck with it so It's critical and this is where I think Chaim is so right That we step back and look at the vector of the relationship Because obviously Israel does have an existential problem with Iran and it's got serious problems Negotiating with Palestinians who say that we don't want to have any Jews stepping into our land Having said that something has to be worked out because Our society has changed Maybe Odette says his society has not but our society has and our perception of their society has changed and so from our standpoint There is a serious issue here and the longer you tell the emperor he's wearing beautiful clothes the colder He's gonna get there's a reason why I'm sitting between Odette and Dove today. So, you know Chaim promised me there's nothing controversial in this book We have a few minutes for Questions if I could ask three favors of you one that you identify yourself To that everybody only asked one question because we're gonna be a little constrained for time and third that you ask your question The form of a question which is actually to have a question with an answer rather making a statement and then saying what do you think of my statement? We'll start right here. And if you wait for the mic wolf gross a former water carrier at Camp David a long time ago my question goes to fringe communities the What I would call the military and fringe of the US and Evangelical movement is unquestioning perhaps too unquestioning in its support of Israel and I'd like to have Address where this fits into the equation. Let me start. Let me start because I was giving the American perception on this panel First of all, it's not as unquestioning as We often think those who are unquestioning are unbelievably unquestioning I've heard pastors get up and say we can't give up an inch of our territory Which almost sounds like the people in Queens who say that You know the famous story of Colette Avital who was the ambassador to the UN and she met with a consul general I forget in New York and she was consul general she meets with this group in Queens They said we can't give up an inch of territory. She says I agree. We can't give up an inch of Queens So there are pastors who you know, hey look this is all part of of the New Testament as they read it But as Chaim points out in his book that isn't everybody in the evangelical movement number one Number two, you don't know where the Tea Party is really gonna come out on this You've got Ron Paul who has a following and it says I'm not anti-Israel. I just don't want to give him money I just don't want to stick my neck out for them it's a neo-isolationist thing more than it's an anti-Israel thing, but it's there and There is a neo-isolationist streak in a lot of the Tea Party, which is essentially to say, you know a plague on all their houses so Yes, the right the the the and it's hardly a fringe I mean you go to the south the right the evangelicals are not a fringe at all and The majority of this country is moving south so I wouldn't say that But us while this the evangelicals in general the vast majority are still pro-Israel There is a minority that's questioning and so you cannot even generalize about them. I believe Quote Dove quoting the book If I may but I totally agree and then I'll turn it over to a dead that there is much more of a debate within the evangelical community Then then we believe I mean obviously Christians United for Israel John Hagee and these large organizations which can mobilize tens of thousands of people at a rally in Washington Steal the limelight, but there is a much more intense debate within the evangelical community There is the emergence of a more progressive or left Evangelical community that is also focused on social justice And in some of the pollings that I've I've seen within the evangelical community The majority of evangelicals even support Israel for political reasons not necessarily theological reasons So while the theological millennial Aspect is in the background most evangelicals actually support Israel for political reasons And if your support is based on politics rather than theology, I think there's a lot more uncertainty there in the future I'll be very short when When you are with your back to the wall politically speaking and in terms of global support you can't be choosy and This is a very significant portion of the American society certainly Acceptable to many in the United States, so I don't see any reason to be To be denying the support or disregarding the support Question Being perceived as making it a real effort towards resolving the Palestinian conflict Will include Israeli-American relations and will include Israel as a standing international Ori, I will say to you what I say to my wife almost every morning. Why can't you understand me? 40 plus years of marriage What I wanted to say is that the problems that we face in terms of our relations with the Palestinians have started Long before the trends which I accept I I have no argument with their findings of Chaim in his book That's not that wasn't the point. I was making the point that the policies of Israel on the issue of the West Bank I've emanated from from the Sixth late 60s and early 70s you know Because there could be a perception created that the Sephardic Hadi community is now blocking the way towards the end up the point. I was making is not Not trying to put the blame on that it will Exacerbate the situation when and if the options of getting out will be viable and put to the Israeli society. Yes But the issues have started a long long before and this is what was my point. I'm not trying to Secondly I Wrote a cable From the embassy here. I know something like 20 years ago and I said there is a paradox in there and on the issue in their relations Concerning in the bilateral relations concerning the peace process When there isn't a peace process, we are in friction with the United States and when there is We are also in friction with the United States because the argument would be when and if we go into the Negotiations the argument will be well. Why why do you insist on? I don't know 12% of the of the West Bank for your security You can get along with 4% and we start arguing with you guys. I'm not saying that we should not on the country I'm saying that the the Israeli leaders should have intimated to the American president. What is their vision of their relations in? 1969 the famous year Elliot Richardson deputy Secretary of State Asks Israel asked the the then Then Israeli ambassador. It's Haka bin the late. It's Haka bin What is the kind of Israel you want us to protect? And to this very day the Israeli government the Israeli governments in plural have not given an answer. I Am all for it But there is a paradox there that if you do have and if you don't have a peace process, there is friction With the United States, but I prefer the friction which emanates from having a die an intimate dialogue The sort of this the thing that Rabin did was a war on Christopher. He gave him a deposit Why people were concerning the the Syrian track people will say that some is various will say that Christopher betrayed this confidence When he went too far in the conversation with Assad father, but that's a secondary issue Rabin was willing to and trust is View of the peace with Syria in the hands of of war on Christopher. That's what I will I'm looking for We're gonna have to run in a second because people have to get to different places is a question right here in the front Congress is terrible at making foreign policy I mean unequivocally awful Think of all the sanctions dope doesn't need to get confirmed ever again Think of all the sanctions that have been passed and how they come back to bite us Indonesia is a good example. There are others Pakistan for a while It's just very difficult for 535 people all of whom think that he or she is really president to get their heads together on something like this now to respond and react and Monitor and limit and that's fine and that's the congressional role and that's what the Constitution says So they might actually confirm me Tom but that has to that has to come from the executive branch and There's just no way around it now I totally agree with the Odead that it's much better to have an intimate relationship than not to have an intimate relationship But I think one of the reasons there's been friction over the years and I tried to articulate this is that There is a degree of cognitive dissonance between the two sides in that Israel believes that ultimately you know wake up any American leader at 2 in the morning and They will admit that the peace process isn't as critical as they make it out during daylight hours that's the Israeli belief and The American belief is you couldn't be more wrong I know someone on the front row was better qualified than I am to answer this as Tom Dine sitting there father mother Grandfather of the APAC but I would say I would say the following there is the posturing in every you know a political organization where it is the white house the Israeli government the Knesset and the Congress for that matter and there are debates Not necessarily in closed doors, but debates in Congress which are constructive and can lead to positive results. I think that In Israel, I agree there is an exaggerated perception of what Congress can do in foreign affairs and Etc. But My experience having you know being in contact with Congress for six years is that it is It is a useful platform for negotiating certain things for reaching responsible decisions on Not only on the bilateral relations, but also on the overall Middle East US policy the question of arms to the Arab countries Which ignited this? Gates remark rightly or wrongly Some of these issues very sensitive issues have been dealt not only in this side of Pennsylvania Avenue, but also on the other side and so I became almost an admirer of the American system and the balance between the two the two sides and I think that there is a great role there Beyond the posturing which obviously Some Israeli politicians like very much. I just want to say a quick word I think it's difficult to imagine how Congress can play a constructive role, but I think None of these issues are going to be solved without Congress playing some kind of a role and I think I address this in the conclusion of the report is that not only Does Congress need to be involved? But there needs to be a broader conversation starting at the highest levels of US and Israeli government as we talked about at the executive level Congress and as and Pro-Israel groups as well a wide range of of pro-Israel groups have to be involved in the conversation as well I Wanted we're gonna have to go but I want to thank you all for coming to this discussion. I think what what this has Demonstrated is just how much of a discussion we need to have we clearly are not done with it I want to thank Chaim for writing a study which is Provocative is certainly thought-provoking and hopefully will engender much more of the kind of constructive discussion We've had today, and I hope to see you all again back at CSS soon. Thank you very much