 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network Pretty excited for this week's slate of games across the NFL and includes some high-profile matchups with high-profile High-profile players involved in them So it's gonna be a pretty fun week and that could translate to the problem market as well We're gonna break down player prompts week number 11 with JJ Zacharyson get his read on this week You can get you some good bets for yardage and touchdowns for week number 11 This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by JJ Zacharyson Check out his work at late round comm and find him on Twitter at late round QB for as long as we can and also on the late round Fantasy football podcast JJ Twitter is still alive. We've made it to week 11. How you doing today? I'm good Christian Watson made me feel a lot better today You know after I've got him in a lot of spots in fantasy You know he's scoring touchdowns at a totally totally sustainable rate I mean he of course he's gonna score two and a half touchdowns a game moving forward. Yeah, but yeah I mean, I'll take it. I'll take that that performance So you got Christian Watson you got to be happy about that I wound up pulling the trigger on Titans plus three and a half once it got there and once Jeffrey Simmons was announced as being in So everyone's happy, you know, I mean, unless you're a Packers fan or Todd Downing like you're probably not happy then But like, you know the rest of us get to be pretty excited and head into the weekend on a good note Also, as long as we're able to get there we get to watch the bills in a dome That's pretty fun. Donovan people's Jones in a dome You talked about him last week and he went for like 98 yards doubled his yardage prop. So I've got I've got a good feeling Of a week 11. I'm pretty excited for it. Yeah, I'm definitely glad that the like people were complaining about They're not being a snow game and I'm sitting there. I'm like, give me a snow during it Anyway, who cares like it was gonna be like just windy and we win games And you can't like aesthetically see anything just boring. So I know Josh out and be fine in the wind He's playing it a lot, but like I don't I'd rather watch him in a dome I was also growing tired of the Devon single Terry jokes Like I saw the same Devon single Terry joke of it being six feet of snow and him being five foot seven Probably 30 times across Twitter and tiktok and other social media platforms and I was just kind of sick of it Yeah, exactly. I agree with that as well So we'll talk about a maybe that game later on and talk about week 11 props in just one second But first a reminder that all of our other podcasts for week 11 are up We got a full preview with Ryan Williams posted our first look as well Which talked about my bets this week and also we had some World Cup discussion with Ed Feng there also at Ed On for the college football show on Wednesday with Brett McMurphy of the action network formerly of ESPN You can find all those by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast and also Over on the fan dual YouTube page Twisted tea and fad will have joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series It gives you a chance to compete for your share of thousands of dollars in psych credit introducing twisted tea a Sports betting focus contest series. That's in The contest is simple each college football game will be a sunny line spread and total markets with assigned points to each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points reach correct selection You may at the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of psych credit at if it will comm slash twisted tea picks and make your picks and remember Please drink responsibly now. Let's take a look here at week number 11 and There are some situations here. We have players with imperfect roles, but they're in good matchup So I want to ask you how much matchup matters for you when you're trying to bet props Is it a you know a 10% thing? How much does it matter for you with the matchup for an individual? Yeah, so, you know, I think that the first thing to remember is that we should always lead with volume Certain matchups can definitely generate volume But volume is inherently a skill statistic and you can think of this either from a running backs perspective or a Pass catcher perspective or running back, you know, hopefully talent wins out Hopefully the coach is putting the most talented running back on the field There's most skillful running back on the field and therefore that running back will see the most work But I think wide receivers a little bit easier to explain because a wide receiver earns volume by getting open and earning that target You know a quarterback is not going to necessarily throw to a wide receiver who's covered and who's blanketed But if a wide receiver can create that separation, he's bound to see more Targets in a higher target share So talent is driving the volume part of that equation and volume is what matters most But you know some matchups can dictate volume going in certain directions Maybe it's a defense that doesn't cover tight ends very well or maybe it's a defense that has a number two corner That's down and the number two wide receiver can do really well that week And matchup can also help with efficiency. So, you know, I think that You know, because you'll get more scoring opportunities a higher yards per target, etc, etc So matchups definitely matter to me But at the end of the day, I'm leading with volume. I'm leading with things like target share I'm leading with just overall talent, you know, you can place Justin Jefferson against anyone and he'll be fine You know, but if you're facing, you know, if Justin Jefferson is playing Atlanta versus playing, you know A team with a better secondary then obviously you can give him a little bit of a boost because it's just an easier matchup A better matchup. So and there's more efficiency involved there So definitely always lead with volume always lead with talent and then do factor in Matchups if I were to give it like a percentage, I'd say it's like a 10 to 20 percent thing. Maybe yeah, you know Nothing nothing more than that I think that the one thing that we see in the fantasy space at least is that people take matchup a little bit too far Matchups to me or more so, you know for like lower tiered players where like, you know If there's a script that goes a certain way and we might see a number two running back get more work than usual Because of that matchup or something like that then yeah, I mean like, you know A guy goes from being nothing to being something but matchup overall, let's just associate a Percentage to it and say 10 to 20 percent Yeah, the reason I wanted to ask is because we got the commanders facing Washington or Houston this week Which is like the best matchup for running back and like off of that heavy rush attempt game last week I was like, okay, I kind of want to look towards unders on these guys But I'm just so like I'm just like rattled like can I bet nunder on a running back against Houston? It's just like it's frightening to me. Right. Yeah. I mean an instance is like that too. I just kind of avoid, you know I'm just you don't have to bet anything exactly. Yeah, I'm not I'm not gonna bet everything you know every single prop that's out there and You know in situations like that where whereas otherwise, you know last week You know, I was on seikwan and that in that yard of shodal against houston And you know, that's different because where he's you know, seikwan barkley versus brian robinson Nothing gets brian robinson but seikwan barkley is a monster and we can feel a lot confident In his skill and his volume that's coming his way Whereas we can't feel that same comfort with the with a washington back Seikwan barkley could have been at like two and a half yards per carry and still hit it the over on his Russian yard his prop last week, but he he did because he's quite good at football other thing I want to talk about is players moving to new teams because There are guys like chase claypool and cadarius tony who were in really interesting spots this week Tony due to injuries for the other wide receivers in the cheese claypool because of the matchup And I think that they're intriguing in these situations But it's hard to know what their role will be because claypool's role actually went backwards a little bit in This most recent game that was concerning tony I don't know like he in theory could be getting worked this week with michael harbin on ir but it's hard to know So when you're trying to judge What a role will be for those kinds of guys What are you looking at when trying to project them in the short term going forward? I'd say there's two things the first thing is just who are they competing against and what are they competing with You know in tony's case You know with these injuries going on it sounds pretty bad for juju this week, you know overall You know, we don't know for sure right now at the time of this recording But you know, he's likely not going to play michael harbin's obviously on ir And so you look at what's going on in that offense you have mvs who looks to be healthy You know, he had like limited practice and such so far this week, but let's say mvs goes I mean it's it's not that mommy justin watson and these guys who you know Haven't gotten a lot of run historically within the nfl so you can feel confident that not only can tony Overcome that talent, but at the same time. He's at least trending in the right direction You know, he went from that that first week when he joined kansas said he had like an eight percent heart or snap share And then this past week it bumped up to like 44 45 percent Um, and so the the trend you know the arrow is at least pointing up for cadarius tony And so you can then you know just just be rational about it and hope that the team is rational that okay You know, he's increasing I don't think we can assume that he's going to be like a full-time guy because if you give him team context too You know, the chiefs love to rotate their players and their personnel around so it's not like we're going to see 95 snap shares from guys who aren't elite within that offense And so you know, you can still project a higher snap share than for a guy like tony because of circumstance and because of talent Um and what he's overcoming um and say, you know, maybe maybe a 60 65 percent snap share or something like that this week And then obviously if he's seeing more snaps there's more production and he's obviously been incredibly efficient since joining Kansas City. He has been efficient really throughout his career. Um, the problem with chase claypool then, you know This is this is just an example obviously, but it's going case by case and and you're saying okay chase claypool Not a ton to overcome byron pringles back and uh, you know, there's not like there's it's not like there's much out of Darnell outside Darnell mooney within that offense The problem though is that he trended in the like you said he trended in the wrong direction this past week He barely he barely played Um, and so you can't feel that confident in him all of a sudden seeing this massive massive boost the next week And so in situations like that I generally just avoid. Um, you know, I think that you could hypothetically bet unders But I think the market's going to generally reflect what happened the previous week anyway Um, you know, there's a chance then obviously that claypool plays a lot this week And you know, we we run into this in fantasy football all the time where you know Traylon berks is a good example actually where you know, his his work the previous week was fine But you still you know, you want to see it over multiple weeks to make sure what you know to have a concrete Feel about what his role looks like and such and so, you know I benched Traylon berks in a lot of places last night and a lot of people did Uh, you know against green bay and he had a great game And that's fine because you know that you have Traylon berks moving forward Right, but you know, it could have gone south too You know, you just don't know what these coaches are thinking how they're going to deploy these guys, etc You can only work off of what you know And so I think the two big things though are what's the competition? And then where are things trending and for both tony and claypool the competition is beatable But tony's trending in one direction and claypool is trending in another and with tony too like Mark west of all that scambling is not a target earner. You were talking about talent You know earning earning targets and like yeah, not that he's untalented But his role isn't like conducive to a high target share So the guys he's on the field with they're also not going to be taking away a lot of looks I think is encouraging for tony as well. Okay, we talked about a couple situations So with the chiefs past catchers and the uh, Foul or the bears past catchers, which other situations are you looking at this week? Try to find some undervalued guys once props that are posted Yeah, so a big story is ziki lele it's return in the dallas backfield tony pollard's averaged A 73 percent running back rush share without zeke over the last two weeks That number was about 38 percent with zeke. So a pretty massive difference in the percentage of running back rush as he was seeing But I think that I you know, we need to note at least that as the season's gone on Pollard has captured, you know more and more of that backfield even before this is if you lele at injury happened So I wouldn't look at what he did across the entire season without zeke and say that's how it's going to be With zeke back and not only that but this is zeke's first game back We don't know what that workload is going to really look like if he's going to be fully fully healthy It's apparently going to be wearing a brace all that kind of stuff So I kind of see this being like a 50-50 split this week between the two guys if you can find Value in that, um, you know, I would assume that pollard is going to play more of a past catching role as he's played all season long So I still see more juice and more value in tony pollard overall Um, you know just just in terms of production then is ziki lele it with his returns That's one thing to definitely keep an eye on another one is you know We don't know for sure if he's going to be back at the time of this recording But hollywood brown, uh, he's potentially returning, you know, zack earths is out Um, you know, and that's going to free up about 20 of the team's targets He's run the most routes in the nfl at tight end But de andre hopkins a 33 target share per game since returning to action ron delmore over his last two games He's he's hit at least a 30 target share You don't see two players hit a 50 target share in their offense combined very often, let alone a 60 target share So, you know hollywood brown and going back to targets being earned hollywood brown is a good wide receiver This is not someone, you know, who's not going to command a 20 25 percent, you know in that range Target share. Um, and so, you know, if you look at it from that perspective I think that you have to bump down de andre hopkins and ron delmore at least a little bit Um, especially probably someone like ron del, whereas de andre hopkins At least is going to have some sort of baseline because he's just so talented Um, it is good for those three wide receivers that zack earths is out I do think that they're you know, they can maintain some of this to some degree But I really don't think a guy like ron delmore is going to be able to maintain a 30 target share If hollywood brown is healthy And then the last one is no colil herbert, which means david montgomery is likely going to be the bell cow In the chicago offense. Um truston ebner, uh, rookie who's who's pretty explosive pretty fun running back Um, you know, he's played sort of a pass catching role, uh, this season within that offense Um, but colil herbert has not done that colil herbert's been an early down back He hasn't seen a target in each of his last three games. He's just been a grinder on the ground Um, and so I don't think truston ebner is just going to walk in and take a colil herbert workload So I think a lot of that rushing production and that rushing work is going to go to david montgomery And he's a player that we've seen in that role already before I mean he's he's seen bell cow workloads throughout his career So I feel pretty confident in david montgomery sort of being that bell cow for chicago this week without colil herbert Uh going back to the cardinal situation to uh deandre hopkins popped up on the injury report on thursday with a hamstring injury I didn't see anything to make it seem Super concerning, but that could also lend itself to like hey if marquise brown is activated He could jump back into a big target share because what we've seen hopkins and more do With the zacher it's injury this past week So we won't know on brown um because they don't have to activate him until like 4 p.m Eastern on monday, which is super annoying but If he does want to be activated and hopkins is still banged up that is a situation Maybe you buy actively into marquise brown in his first game back with the zeke thing too They play thursday on thanksgiving that might also put a lid on his usage They've said that won't impact whether he's active the fact they play thursday But i bet it's probably going to impact his usage So i think they're being high on pollard even a zeke ones that being full go That could be pretty advantageous. I agree with that as well Let's turn to the yardage market for week number 11 jj. Where are you seeing a value there right now? Yes, you can get paris cambell's line at 36 and a half receiving yards in a few places right now I like the over um, you know the eagles, you know, obviously a tough matchup for wide receivers They've been one of the best at limiting uh receiving yards to the position this season But they've been more beatable on the slot than the perimeter this year Which is where paris cambell plays they ranked 12th in the nfl and percentage of targets allowed to the slot paris cambell has played 79 of his snaps from the slot this year and he's been connecting really well with matt ryan Over his last three games with matt ryan. He's averaged a 27 target share per game He's averaged about 68 receiving yards per game. So i feel like that 36 and a half number is pretty low So give me the over and that line is moved it was six and a half It's now seven which would further indicate that they may be more pass heavy in this game because it's not jt Go nuts this past week and they're going to want to run the football But will they be able to against a very good eagles offense even though dallas goddard? Like they're probably going to throw at some point and like with the rapport ryan and cambell have had I feel like that's a very good situation to turn to yeah for sure All right, what are the yardage props are you seeing here at week 11? I'm going to go to brandon cooks and i'm definitely not going to go over what they brandon cooks prop right now So his his numbers hit 54 and a half and this is at a lot of books as well I'm going to hit the under here. Um, it's a better than average matchup There's no doubt against washington but cooks is averaging less than 49 receiving yards per game this year So that's that's the under right there. He's hit this number in three of eight games this season He's also not hit this number in three of his last four. Um, and you know, there's there's definitely a uh a correlation With that and his lack of production of late with fewer looks in the offense across his first five games this year He never dipped below a 20% target share in any single game over his last three his single game high is a 20.7 percent target share So, you know, he's not seeing as many looks in the offense. Um, you know, nico collins Someone who uh, I don't think people realize we talked about this I think on this show before but Nico collins is averaging more receiving yards per game in that offense than brandon cooks is and I think You know, if you look at books, it's usually brandon cooks then nico collins So, you know, I don't think this matchup is bad But I just don't really love brandon cooks in this situation right now So I'm going to go the under there And then the last one that I have is one that I actually talked about a little bit earlier Which is david montgomery. Um, I'm going to go over 61 and a half rushing yards for david montgomery I feel like that number's uh pretty low right now. Um, you know, he hasn't hit that number in three straight games But he also hasn't seen Half of the bears running max and two of his running mac rushes and two of his last three Over the last three though herbert and montgomery if you look at both of those guys combined Assuming, you know, obviously clill herbert's not not playing this weekend. They combined for 152 rushing yards 59 rushing yards and 94 rushing yards So the median there between those two running backs far far greater than 61 and a half rushing yards Now clearly david montgomery, this is not how projections work You don't just say david montgomery gets all of clill herbert's work no matter what um, but at the same time You could look at you know an 80 90 percent running back rush share for david montgomery this week I don't think that would be a crazy projection form just given that backfield and given the depth chart Um, and if that's the case then he would still be getting over that mark given what they've done in recent weeks And then on top of that the matchup is beautiful. Uh, it's it's atlanta I mean, this is a team that you can throw on and run on and we know that chicago Loves to run the football. They're one of the most run heavy teams that we've seen or the most run heavy team Overlast like decade and a half. So I think this number really should be closer to like 70 yards And you're getting in at 61 and a half. So i'm going to hit the over I think the other two things to consider with montgomery are We did see a model for them earlier this year of what they'll do with ebbner That was when montgomery was out and in that game I think herbert had 20 compared 20 carries compared to eight for ebbner And they clearly value montgomery more than they value herbert because the snap share has still been like not double But pretty close to herbert's recently so they view him more than that So you expect a wider split than 20 to eight there And other thing is uh, justin fields has spoken twice this week about how tired his legs are From running as much. So we're probably gonna see a slight reduction there part of the reason the the Combine rushing yardage from montgomery and herbert's been a bit lowers because fields has done it all himself and He needs a breather at some point. Like I feel bad for this guy So I think that both those things do point towards um, montgomery a pretty good role for this week What about touchdown props? What do you see in there this week? I got one another long shot I love the long shots on the show. Um garret wilson right now is plus 280 as an any time touchdown You can get that on fandal. Actually, it's actually one of the better spots for this bet Is over on fandal But he hit a season high 115 receiving yards against new england the last time that these two teams met Um, he scored a touchdown in just one game this year despite 521 receiving yards He's got an expected touchdown total that's closer to four when he scored two because he had two touchdowns in that one game So he is a regression candidate technically He's averaging a 27 target share per game over his last four Corey davis is someone who should still probably be out this week, which is pretty big You know, he's getting better looks in this offense. Garrett wilson is without Corey davis Um, you know, like I said, I like my long shot any 10 touchdowns I think plus 280 is is pretty good juice for him Yeah, the two games they've played without Corey davis so far this year gary wilson a 28 target share He does have 13% instead of the red zone So not nothing there But that number could go up because tyler conklin's at 25 percent Which seems a little bit high and I do have the jets plus three and a half So I need uh, I need some jets touchdowns and I wouldn't mind it there gary wilson for my daily fantasy lineups as well Alrighty, that is all that we have here for week number 11. I think it's a pretty fun little offering here I feel good about paris cambell. I like the montgomery stuff I need I need gary wilson now. I don't know if I don't care if I like I just need it So pretty excited to see how these go jj want to thank you for the time as always and good luck to you across week 11 Thanks, jim. Appreciate it. You can find jj on twitter at late round qb We'll update the at the mastodon Username next week on that one can find jj's work at late round com and on the late round fantasy football podcast I'm on twitter at jim sonnis Also, be sure to check out our nfl week 11 preview and our week 12 college football preview Up in the covering the spread podcast feed, but for now good luck to all you with your bets We'll talk to you once again monday to preview 49ers and cardinals This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network