 Well good morning everyone Let me welcome all of you to the Carnegie endowment for international peace. I'm Ashley tell us I'm a senior fellow here at the endowment and it's a great opportunity for us today That we have Randy Schreiber the assistant secretary of defense for Asia and Pacific affairs Joining us this morning The topic as we have advertised is a conversation about the 2-plus-2 dialogue that's going to happen within about a week in Delhi It's an event that is very important in the political calendar Because the relationship has really come a long way since we first began working on the transformation about 20 years ago and I'm particularly delighted that we could snag Randy to speak about it because he has the action on this issue in the Pentagon Randy is all of you know has had a long career in government in public policy analysis and in business Prior to his current position. He was the deputy assistant secretary of state for East Asia and the chief of staff and the senior policy advisor to the deputy secretary of state under Bush He also served as the CEO and the president of the project 2049 Institute Whose website if you haven't seen I would strongly comment your attention because it does superb work on East Asian security affairs And Randy ran that for a long time before he came in the government He also was a founding partner of Amadish International So he's covered all the bases everything from business to public policy to government and is Without fear of contradiction One of the nation's premier analysts of Asian security issues. So welcome Randy. It's wonderful to have you The invitation look forward to the discussion look forward to that, too I want to start by just saying a few words of tribute to senator McCain Because he actually graced this very room at Carnegie twice In the last decade if I remember Speaking of the very subject that we are about to have a conversation Without doubt he was a towering figure in America's public life and he certainly left the country stronger by his presence and By his contributions as a soldier and as a public servant With very strong convictions about the issues that we care about He reminded us that our values are really the most important part of who we are as people and as a country and That our strength is essential if our vision and our values are to be protected and on the two occasions that he actually spoke at Carnegie He made a very strong plea For a strengthened US-India bilateral relationship as the foundation for the success of the liberal order and So it is a particularly important thing. I think that we recognize his spirit in this room As we have this conversation. I Want to start this conversation with Randy with the quote From senator McCain's 2010 speech Which was remarkable as I was just going through it last night. It's so prescient in the vision and He said in 2010 If the United States and India are to forge a truly strategic partnership Our senior leaders in government must prioritize two areas of cooperation above all security and values in short the creation of geopolitical conditions that Secure and expand that the community of countries that value political and economic freedom and I think if there is Leach motif for the conversation this morning I think this is a great and I want to start on that note Randy by asking you to talk about the broadest Shapo Under which we are thinking of the bilateral relationship, which is the free and open Indo-Pacific The president surprised many Because of the fears raised during the campaign of isolationism and America's engagement in the world when he came out and embraced the free and open Indo-Pacific And yet this has been a subject that has been clouded by some uncertainty So I was wondering if you could spend a few minutes just laying out what the administration's vision is and Then sort of helping us think how you see India fitting into that Well, thank you. Can I just start by thanking you for the invitation and giving me this opportunity to talk about this relationship and the upcoming two plus two and thank you so much for Opening by paying tribute to senator McCain somebody who was a great American hero and meant so much to There's so many but particularly for those of us who work in the Indo-Pacific Is leadership was just tremendous and counted on and now there's a there's a real hole there that I don't know that it can be filled but But we certainly valued his his voice for so long. So thank you for that as well. I Gotta also say it's a little it's a little strange for me to be sitting here being asked questions by Ashley. Tell us about India Ashley tell us is the person that we all go to to ask questions about India and have for a long time So I'll play along We still in Department of Defense and across the government count on Ashley's expertise So but I'll play along today and do my best here So we've begun to publicly articulate the aspects of the Indo-Pacific Free and open Indo-Pacific strategy secretary Mattis Did that primarily with his speech at the Shangri-La dialogue? Recently at the Indo-Pacific business forum secretary Pompeo Secretary of Energy Perry secretary Ross OPEC president Washburn all Started to articulate the economic and energy and development aspects of that So I don't need to repeat all that but I think at the core is our belief that We're promoting a positive Affirmative vision for the region. It's not Necessarily anti anybody counter anybody it's really affirming and promoting the principles of a free and open Indo-Pacific. So by free Core of that is we believe countries should have complete sovereign control of their countries to make Decisions from capital free from coercion free from undue pressure We also mean free open transparent and reciprocal trade relationships By open we're talking about open Areas for commerce for freedom of navigation for broad participation in the life of the region commercially economically So we think this is something that is is a US vision and strategy But one that countries can readily sign up for and in a variety of ways But particularly this aspect of promoting sovereignty Because we know that there are threats to that we know that the one of the principal challenges We're facing is the potential erosion of sovereignty coming through predatory economics coming through Intimidation and coercion through military means so you know at a minimum sort of baseline We really want to promote that idea and be a partner We don't seek influence or control of anybody's territory. We feel we're better off if countries have their own Sovereign control and the ability to protect that so how does India fit in? We that's a subject of continuing discussion and will certainly be featured at the 2 plus 2 But I would suggest just lay side by side secretary Mattis a speech at Shangri-La and Prime Minister Modi's speech At Shangri-La who of course gave the keynote This is not a situation where we're where we're really searching for Common ground and convergence. This is where a Situation where as our leadership articulates the vision we see a lot of convergence and and Belief that these are principles we both share and want to promote so our goal is really to operationalize that with India as a partner and The Specifics I think will will take form some of that will be in the defense area. Some of that may be in the development assistance area But that's what we're working on But again, I think at the foundation we can see our leadership roughly has the same vision as articulated by by President Prime Minister Modi and Secretary Mattis and now it's our job to really operationalize that I Actually found Prime Minister Modi's speech at Shangri-La quite remarkable because he emphasized the same themes that we have Though he seemed to draw the distinction between the vision and the strategy and I'm not quite sure what was intended by the emphasis on that distinction But clearly on the headlines he emphasized a complete comfort With what the United States was trying to achieve because I think he sees that it as being in India's interest as well Is that the sense that you get as you prepare for the discussions going up to the two questions? Yes, again, we see at least on the vision a Convergence and and a lot of common ground In terms of the strategy. Well, I think that's something that We need to build out and you know, we've been putting this together, but it's taken us a while to articulate this Secretary Mattis's speeches at Shangri-La was a year and a half into the administration and now we have our other agencies Articulating that at the Indo-Pacific business forum So these these things take a little time to build out as we do that side by side in parallel with India I think the again, I'll use the same phrase operationalizing this strategy We need to figure out what the divisional labor might be where the partnership might be where the Many lateral multilateral opportunities that include both the United States and India may be and that's basically what we're discussing Let me come back to this question in a different way Shamsaran who was the former Indian Foreign Secretary and was deeply engaged in the negotiations on the civil nuclear agreement Wrote a piece two weeks ago. I think it was published in one of the Indian newspapers where he made the argument that Although the US and India share very strong convergence on the Indo-Pacific Let's not kid ourselves at the end of the day there is a common challenge and that common challenge is China if we did not have a Challenge of the kind posed by China in the area of economics in the area of sovereignty in the area of its own military capabilities The Indo-Pacific concept would sort of be less salient How do we think of China because it's almost like Banco's ghost When we talk about the Indo-Pacific it's the one country that has tremendous prominence in the region That has a gravitational field that is attractive in some areas, but also repelling because of some of its behaviors So you mentioned that this is not against anyone But there is a view both in India and even in the United States that we cannot sort of Have rosy tinted glasses when we think about China. So how does China fit into our common? Vision for a free and open Well, I'm early accused of rose tinted glasses when it comes to China, but Look, I don't think we want to lose the the idea that this is an inclusive strategy and and we would prefer China embracing the same vision I think if you're against free and or open There's an onus there to explain exactly what it is. You don't like about it because then you're getting right to the heart of threatening country sovereignty and Ability to have free flow of commerce freedom navigation, etc. So I think it's not so much Again countering any particular country, but China's behavior Things they've articulated, you know, sometimes we Call China opaque or you know difficult in other ways. They're very clear, right? And and they're clear in public statements They're clear in their their actions and their behavior and they're demonstrating that they have a different aspiration for the Indo-Pacific region and it's Manifest in their economic strategy built and wrote initiative their militarization of the South China see a lot of the Coercive approaches to the internal politics of others So maybe there's a there's a counterfactual or China isn't doing these things and we have trouble getting countries to align On an Indo-Pacific vision and strategy, but but the world we live in It is in fact helping countries coalesce around this So I suppose that's a residual sort of benefit of China's behavior again Our preference would be an inclusive strategy that includes China as a constructive participant in regional affairs But that's I think largely demonstrated by their behavior not the world we live in so We we want to be a partner with India and other countries that at looking how to have alternatives We don't necessarily Fort or or counter something like belt belt and wrote initiative you shine a light on the downsides of it But you also have to have an alternative and we've talked to India about Coordinating development assistance and looking at how we can be partners and in providing that alternative Same would go in the in the military and security areas How do we prove ourselves a preferred partner and a more trusted and reliable partner to countries in the Indo-Pacific region? Rather than saying you shouldn't have a relationship with China and you shouldn't do these activities with China That's just unrealistic given China's Size influence and and geography. So this is the conversation We're we're gonna have in Delhi or I shouldn't say continue to have in Delhi And I think China will be a factor in most of what we do going forward and I I think The government of India certainly does not want to have a relationship that is one of complete alienation with China anyway Because China exists on its borders. It has a Civilizational relationship going back centuries so on and so forth, but I think there is a common effort being made With respect to an effective response and the effective response will take a different form in the strategic area different form in the economic area Do you have the sense that our relationship now is mature enough? That we could begin to think of things that we do not only for the other but also for third parties that might be implicated in Both the strategic and economic realm. So for example We ready to sort of work together in a place like Africa or in Southeast Asia in the economic realm In the strategic realm, what do you imagine the two countries actually being able to do? No, it's a great question and I do think our relationship has matured to that point and and these are items on our agenda So we'll talk about as I said the coordination of development assistance and I think we'll try to find You know some key areas where? where individual countries or regions are facing particular challenges and how we can you know find Common effort that that or where synergies exist if if India and the US are involved in development assistance or economic Activities trade. So I think we that's that is where our relationship is and I think we can both promote our Respective interests and our shared interests by doing that. I think that'll be true in the security area as well We've we've seen exercises Not just bilateral US India exercises, but multilateral exercises Well, obviously you exercise for a reason right exercise to improve readiness and training of your own forces But you think about contingencies you think about real-world Possibilities and so Multilateralizing those opportunities is part of that as well Let me ask you a specific question about the two plus two because it's in this context that the two plus two has received incredible attention in India Partly because it's the apex meeting between leaders and the two sides and will set an agenda for Some time to come in terms of activities in terms of programmatic Developments and so on and so forth Can you tell us something about how this two plus two will be structured? What's on the agenda for conversation and just sort of walk our audience to what's likely to happen in Delhi a week or so from now? Well, first of all, it's a historic meeting. It's the first ever two plus two between our countries that's significant in and of itself But I think beyond that we have an opportunity to really advance the relationship in in significant ways You know, you were kind enough to go through some of my Bio in my background. I've seen a lot of high-level exchanges Sometimes you you meet you talk you go away and and don't have a lot to show for it In this case, I think we're meeting at this high level. We'll talk about Regional issues and and strategic issues, but we're also going to have a set of actual concrete outcomes So it's a very good combination of strategic high-level dialogue and concrete outcomes that will serve as enablers for advancing the relationship You know well beyond the meeting in Delhi on September 6th and 7th, so You know the conversation on on strategic issues regional security issues certainly our shared interest in understanding China and how to respond to that will be Front and center other aspects of promoting the free and open Indo-Pacific how we approach Southeast Asia I think we'll talk about Afghanistan our shared interest there and in driving that to a political settlement But some of the concrete areas and and maybe I'll I'll just stick to the defense areas You know we're working on a set of enabling agreements. It's a bit of an alphabet soup of agreements, but Collectively what they'll allow us to do is have secure communications protect Technology protect information getting those enabling agreements in place will allow security assistance Cooperation to go forward will allow us to exercise and training in more meaningful ways So so again that those are really key Concrete outcomes that will set us on a good course for the future. I think we're going to expand the scope of some of our exercises Increase the complexity and the elements that will participate in these exercises. That's a very good outcome we're going to talk about augmenting the two-plus to to include Perhaps at my level a two-plus to and my counterpart at State Department so that As valuable as those exchanges are they they tend to be once a year at best so we can Augment that with other senior level dialogue so that that's a very good outcome the Elevation of India to strategic trade authority tier one status is a very important outcome because again that's an enabler for trade and technology cooperation because it lifts some of the Restrictions on our ability to do that So there's just a number of things that Again will really set us on a great course as we go forward Well, the augmentation idea is actually particularly important because it's hard to imagine The Secretary of Defense and his counterpart in India being able to meet as frequently as we would like simply because of the Troubles of the calendar But if we can at the working level have a continuous dialogue I think that would be extremely productive and so kudos to for doing that Let me come back to the strategic aspect in at two levels. One is the region itself India lives in a sort of troubled neighborhood and we certainly have a common project with respect to success in Afghanistan There have been the last few weeks in Afghanistan have been particularly troubled with Taliban activity The attack on Ghazni and so on Where do you see? the President's decision to sort of stay the course in Afghanistan How do you see the future of? US India cooperation in light of that decision. What are the expectations of India at this point? well, I'll leave the Strategic Policy Decisions to the President and Secretary Pompeo Ambassador Bolton I'm not the future of our approach there, but I think what Secretary Mattis said yesterday and General Nicholson our outgoing commander there have said is Looking through all this recent activity. We nonetheless see Signs that there may be opportunities to move the political process forward President Ghani's initial ceasefire Was very revealing in a lot of ways first of all that they pulled it off and some want to say well It was only three days, but in fact there were sort of localized ceasefires that extended beyond that and again It was very revealing that there was a growing interest even on the Taliban side maybe for accelerated reconciliation so we're seeing some signs that that a political process is moving President Ghani is pursuing another Cease fire and we'll see if the Taliban are willing to step up to that So I think where we can be good partners with India first of all I think our our goals are Shared and common here. We do want to drive this to a political settlement You know India has a lot of experience in being a multi ethnic multi religious democracy and Manages all those complexities very well. There's things that Afghanistan can surely learn from that But then there's the more concrete the economic and development assistance Election training and and potentially monitoring some logistic support that may get into the security area, although I think our Indian friends are Have some limitations that they want to honor and respect for regional security interests there So I do see that this is an area where we can cooperate and that will be an agenda item at the two plus two And what about Pakistan because a great deal of the prospects for success in Afghanistan Determined by the choices that Pakistan makes which is one dimension to the issue But the other dimension is Pakistan as a factor in the US-India relations Where India has viewed itself as being a victim of Pakistan is supported terrorism over the years and the Trump administration Has really come out quite forthright in terms of holding Pakistan to account For these for these misdemeanors. How do you see the triangular relationship between the US and India? Well, I probably don't want to say a lot on that because we want to give the new prime minister of the new government and Pakistan space to Explore where there may be opportunities to improve relations with with India Many new governments come in the power in Islamabad and want to do that and then run smack dab into into reality and all the difficulties but in terms of Separating what was said during a campaign and what he said since the election You know, we want to give him space to to find the opportunities to improve things with India I think on the the questions about How that all relates to Afghanistan and shared interests There's no question we need Pakistan's help Encouraging persuading pressuring the Taliban to come to the negotiating table deal with The national unity government under President Ghani and and talk about a future where they're included But not through force, but through a political process We have made decisions on curbing assistance and and Putting constraints on our relationship with Pakistan as a means to Try to persuade them to to adopt that course and use their influence on the Taliban We're still evaluating as to the impact of that. It's it's certainly not where we want it to be But it's something that I think we'll stick with and certainly The the end state should be one that we can all agree on So I think it's a matter of dealing with suspicions and distrust in the mix of all this And I think the best thing if we can get some momentum behind this Initial ceasefire, sorry the second ceasefire offer and have that lead to some political dialogue I think that would go a long way in in reducing suspicions among all these other actors and players Absolutely, and that by definition will be a long-term process, right? It's not Likely to come to any happy conclusions. So it it may be I mean We've moved our Afghanistan approach to a conditions-based approach not a timeline, but if secretary Mattis We're sitting here. I can show you he would say 17 years is long enough To be involved in a war. We need this to end. We want this to end So we're not on a timeline. It's conditions-based, but we do see through President Ghani's initiatives Some of the reaction from the Taliban to the initial ceasefire We do see an opportunity there that we really want to seize so it may be long term ultimately to get Afghanistan to a place Where we all want it to be but this is a potential inflection point that we want to seize Can I move the aperture? Make it a little broader for a second that I want to talk about a country to Pakistan's West to India's West which is a concern to India and that is around and That concern is obviously anchored in the change of course that the administration is pursuing I suspect this is an issue that will come up in the two plus two the Indian concern about Iran of course has to do with Changes in US policy and the implications for India's own relationship with Iran. What are we asking of India and Iran? What is the administration trying to get down here? Well, I am On most days of the week happy to leave Iran to my colleague Robert Karam my counterpart as an assistant secretary defense But you're right. It does very much bleed over into My area of responsibility and it will be a topic of discussion. I believe at the two plus two Without going into a lot of detail because I think we need to hear from the Indians This is a still a relatively new development pulling out of jikpoa and what that may ultimately mean for Variety of things potential sanctions, etc I think we'll go to the table and and look forward to hearing from the Indians about their Relationship there and and what they see is as key priorities Try to preserve if they can But obviously the president made the decision he did on Iran because of concerns about the agreement and about having in our view a need for something much stronger and dealing with Iran's not only nuclear program, but their behavior. So I Think we need to sit and have that very open candid sober dialogue and see where we come out the other side But we understand that India will raise these issues and we welcome that and we'll have the discussion There is a parallel discussion to Iran that is also on Indian minds and that is Russia the administration Is struggling to come to terms with the whole problem of Russian interference in US domestic politics While the president at the same time has made various overtures about to reach to Russia The specific concern to India at the moment is of course a threat of sanctions, but if you're Russian Indian defense trade, I Imagine this is one of those issues that will also have to be discussed at some point How does one? How does one work with India? To achieve a common goal, which is to sort of strengthen India's capacity in the Indo-Pacific Without letting India's relations with Russia become a problem in US India relations What's a complex issue? So let me Let me just say a few things We understand the Historical nature of that relationship and the legacy of that relationship as it applies to the Defense ministry and the military so a lot of legacy platforms and the need to support those I think What we want to do is have a conversation With India that's not about the past and their legacy, but about the future and look at the nature of this regime Look at Crimea Ukraine. I called it the laundry list when I was in Manila the chemical attack in the UK And look at Russia's own Future their demographics. This is I think not a country that you really want to have a strategic partnership You know well into the future. We can be a more reliable better partner So that's sort of at the at the macro level to deal with Issues like katsa and potential sanctions I think we need to be very careful here Secretary Mattis did in fact go to Capitol Hill and often use India as sort of the flagship example as to why We wanted a waiver for the Secretary of State and so I think that created a certain impression that We're going to completely protect the India relationship insulate India from from any fallout of From this legislation no matter what they do. I would say that's That's a bit misleading We would still have very significant concerns if India pursued major new platforms and systems I can't sit here and tell you that they would be exempt that we would use that waiver That'll be the decision of the president if he's faced with a Major new platform and capability that India is acquired from Russia That'll be the president's decision, but all I know is I can't sit here and tell you that the waiver will be used in that case So that's a specific thing that we'll have to navigate I think overall One of the reasons Secretary Mattis use India as that flagship example Is he knows where he wants the relationship to go with India? He wants it to go forward He wants it to improve strength and be more Capable as a partnership and he doesn't want these impediments and so whether it's you know finding Ways to to persuade India to go a different course rely on us as a Trusted partner and supplier of defense equipment whether it's giving consideration to a waiver We know the direction we want to go and we don't want these to be impediments I hope we get the opportunity at the duplice due to actually have this strategic conversation Because the strategic conversation is truly fundamental if India understands Russia's own evolution and Recognizes its limits For India's own self-interest That would be a productive opportunity for us to see how we can break through some of the log jams and other issues also And I think we'll endeavor to do that I will have two last questions before I open it to the floor One has to do with the change that has occurred in the Trump administration with respect to economic policy Not only towards India, but towards a range of other countries But the specific question to India is the following The Department of Defense in particular has gone out of its way to emphasize the importance of this strategic partnership as has the administration and the national security strategy and national defense strategy documents, but how can we Sort of work with India When in the economic arena, we still have a series of irritants and difficulties while We appear to be making much greater progress in the defense space Because the Trump administration has made economics so important and central to its engagement with the world How do we sort of keep both these? Elements in the relationship and sink as we move forward Well, it can be a challenge and I would just say in support of my colleagues who do the trade and economic issues We need that Channel that that ongoing dialogue to be successful because these are long-standing irritants I would say this is not just the Trump administration or maybe the Trump administration is taking this more head-on and Applying different tools, but you know better than I some of the long-standing trade irritants in this relationship I would say from a defense perspective That the economic and trade relationship can be Supportive additive complimentary to what we do on the defense and security side and that's the optimal environment But we certainly have history and are able to Walk and chew gum at the same time. I I'm old enough to remember the difficulties we had with Japan in the 1980s when we had members of Congress Smashing Toshiba project products on the steps of the capital and Incredible trade irritants and disputes with Japan all the while our alliance and our security relationship was evolving at a very good pace Driven by our security interests so we are able to Compartmentalize if we have to I think the realities of the security environment will create a natural convergence and give us these opportunities Irrespective of what's happening on the trade side So I'm not saying that's what we want but I think Our interests are very compelling and persuasive on the defense and security side that I think will be able to continue momentum Even in that environment That is actually a consoling image because you're absolutely right Japan offers a useful example of The United States having faced the situation before and having come out both the United States and Japan haven't come out The better for it. So I hope we can actually end up in the same place with India The last question I have before I open it to the floor is going into the two plus two How would you judge the health of the US in your strategic relationship net net taking into account all these Difficulties in some cases opportunities and others Where do you see us today? Do we have the foundations in place for building something that is truly? substantial For peace and security in the Indo-Pacific over the next decade Yeah, we're quite bullish as a US government and at the Department of Defense in particular And it's really and I should have said this earlier It's we're really the beneficiaries of decades of great work the Bush administration your contributions Ashley Working through the civil nuclear deal the Obama administration particularly on the defense side We used to sometimes refer to Ash Carter as the Indian desk officer when he was secretary defense, but But the creation of the major defense partner concept coming in the Obama administration And so this is a this is sort of evolutionary In its nature But I think all that good work what it amounts to is the creation of that foundation. You're talking about and asking about I think we benefit from Leadership on both sides that are willing to take some risks Having articulated a vision talk about how to operationalize a strategy So we're we're quite bullish as I said We'll be able to navigate some of these challenges I believe and and come out the other side with being able to say our administration continued the momentum that the previous ones started and So I'm pretty optimistic well I wish you and your colleagues all the best for the for the next couple of weeks as you'll have these conversations and for whatever comes out I'm gonna open the floor to our guests and if you could identify yourself and Make the question of the comment sort of pointed in brief so I can give as many people a chance Yes, ma'am How India is getting caught up in the the sanctions against Russia But you didn't talk as much about the sanctions against Iran So I'm hoping you can give us a little bit more detail and how you Plan to navigate those sanctions particularly with regards to oil and I also wanted just to press you in terms of katha on the purchase of the s-400 and Do you just the US plan to seek a waiver for Kapsa for the s-400 for India and if yes or no, what is what is the precedent that that sets Nice to see a face-to-face we've had communication I'm gonna resist the urge to talk more about Iran as I said, I think we need the opportunity to sit down our Indian friends at this high level and and have a good exchange on on where India thinks its interests are and Aspects of the relationship with Iran that they feel they need to protect or insulate and we'll be able to explain our point of view on that but Again, it's a relatively new development Leaving jacoa and and the potential imposition of sanctions as relates to that So I'll I'll I'll leave that for the future to talk about after the two plus two on on Russia katsa s-400 Obviously we have this legislation katsa Not because of anything India is doing anything we're doing it's because of the Russian behavior and I went through the partial laundry list, but The Congress felt the need to take action and demonstrate not only in words and in spirit Why we think this regime's activities are so troublesome, but to actually take concrete action to try to have a consequence and punishment for this behavior I Think most people acknowledge it was flawed legislation for the reasons that some of our partners friends and allies Themselves might end up paying a price that was not intended. So Congress was very good at working with us to Create this waiver opportunity and now we have a little more flexibility for the Secretary of State and the president to make those determinations I as I said, I cannot sit here today and tell you if India buys X Then the waiver will be used or it won't be used. I think s-400 in particular is a system that's particularly troubling for a lot of reasons and I Think our strong preference India is a friend. It's a sovereign country. They'll make their own decisions, but our preference is To seek alternatives and see if we can be a partner to India in addressing those defense needs If they choose to go down that route Like I said, I can't sit here and tell you today that a waiver would necessarily be used It would be a a topic discussed at the highest level of our government and they would make some determination Well, it'd be some it'd be some weighing of the concerns that that acquisition creates and How that could impact a variety of things including the future of our defense cooperation that could put limitations on it Versus wanting the the political space and the ability to build out the strategic partnership with India at a more rapid pace Yes Just wait for the microphone. Thank you for coming. My name is Mitsuo Nakai Reagan foundation heritage foundation To in my opinion two of the most important allies we have Japan and India No doubt about that. My question is Do you envision Try lateral summit type of things in terms of security and Including economic issues. Thank you We do have trilateral Interactions with the US Japan and India. I joined my State Department colleagues earlier this year in in Delhi for a Trilateral discussion at our level Taking that to higher levels is certainly a possibility because I think as you say these these three great democracies align on quite a bit of issues So we'll see about the future future of that interaction whether it's sustained at a high level and I think we'd be open to that Yes, sir, my name is Kami Barton with the Pakistani spectator And you mentioned something about giving some space to newly elected Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan Do you think that your department of Defense is willing to use its influence Get IMF or other institution to give Pakistan the necessary loan that it need to get to prevent its economy Defaulting as you know Imran Khan seem to be a man of martial virtue, but he has so many limitation He really cannot print dollar only America can print He cannot provide job to million of young kids who are unimplied in this country He cannot get money to pay interest on his foreign debt in other words Pakistan seem to be bound to be collapsing Very soon so my second question is in the case if it happened Then what role do you perceive for India because no other country has better intelligent human intelligent about Pakistan Then India does I know your department has a very elaborate plan to recover Pakistani hundred atomic bomb In the case Pakistan collapses Does your department see any important role for India to help your department or help the United States to cover those things? Thanks I was a Upon returning to government in January I was reminded you no longer have to answer hypothetical questions and future questions and so I think I'll Heed that advice. There is a lot of hypotheticals there about future collapse nuclear weapon What would I what I what I said about giving him space was really in the context of the India Pakistan relationship We'd certainly like to give him space to make the right decisions on a variety of things but I think our our approach of cutting assistance and pressuring Pakistan on Their relationship with the Taliban persuading them to come to the table dealing with terrorist networks That'll be sustained when I say give space. It's not changing our approach or our policy It's I really meant in the context of developing opportunities between India and Pakistan I I don't have a good answer on the economic Difficulties and challenges that Pakistan finds itself in what I can say is If you look at other examples where countries went all in or largely in with China the results have not been particularly good And there's been an erosion of sovereignty and an erosion of control and and There are many examples of that so if Our friends in Pakistan want to talk about a way out of that or want to talk about Ways to strengthen their economy and and deal with that. I'm sure we'd be open to that and trying to work with Pakistan work either bilaterally or through international institutions To try to get them on a better path. We're not interested in in a failed Pakistan by any stretch of the imagination. So We want them to be successful We want them to have sovereign control and not cede that to any outside party including China and the economic piece is probably going to be key to that Thank you Seema sirui, I'm a columnist for the economic times in India Wanted to press you further on the question of s 400 would the US be willing to offer something That India could bear, you know, if it doesn't want India to buy s 400 since China Already has got deliveries the first few deliveries on s 400 The other question is about the quad Do you detect a certain hesitancy on part of India? Because the Prime Minister did not even mention it in his speech in Shangri-La Officials love questions that start with let me press you further because you thought you addressed it I Think let me just say at a sort of general level. Yes, we're willing to talk to India about meeting defense requirements and alternatives There may not be an exact system that we can produce Specifications and capabilities, but you have systems not to have not to have systems not to have platforms But to address defense requirements and needed capabilities. So I Can't say we'd certainly be willing to enter into that conversation with India and we and we and we have How we can be a good partner in addressing what their real requirements are In terms of the quad I come at this and from a little different perspective I My perspective I believe the quad was born on December 26th 2004 which was the day of the great tsunami in Southeast Asia when the four countries that responded were India Australia Japan and the United States and we responded because we're like-minded. We saw the Tragedy unfolding and felt compelled to act. We had capability to bring to bear in a quick timely fashion And we had a willingness to cooperate with one another So in a way it was born in reality and in an operation before it was even born in concept I think now we're talking about this is a potential Vehicle for how we can address a range of our interests in the Indo-Pacific And I think we find general receptivity particularly where we're talking about economic issues and development assistance and the like But I think it'll move at a pace and scope that all four are comfortable with and that and that's been the limiting factor Historically right and sometimes it's us Sometimes it's it's been Japan. It's been Australia. It's been India So I think we'll work through all that and If you if you stare at an iceberg, you don't necessarily see the movement But if you look away and look back again, I can see how this quad discussion has moved forward and moving in the right direction Maybe not at the pace we'd like but but I think we'll get there My name is Rajiv Gawal. I Started the defense practice for one of India's largest Industrial groups called the Adhani group My question is twofold India is a democracy and and the longevity of the Administration of the party is really dependent upon the local economics and India is going through a massive issue of employment So if any strategy needs to succeed between the US and India, it has to include the local perspectives as well Okay, your comments on that. The second is that a lot of the horses driving the geopolitical climate is China and China's relations with India have never been a good But Russia and Iran are Gravitating towards China because they see, you know certain How should I say access materializing within the geopolitical framework? So how do you plan to counter the the Chinese? Threat if you want to call it that it's not really a threat. It's Unfortunately, China has a copy a copy-paste model and the biggest Achilles heel in my personal opinion is their inability to be innovative Which is where the US really thrives So how are you going to be able to use India? Because India is very strategically located particularly with respect to the Strait of Malacca and By alienating Iran the other choke point, which is the Strait of Hormuz Has has now, you know our well materialized in my opinion So just your comments on that would be very interested in So to for the Well the second one first you said how are we going to use India? Well, that's what you said. Okay. Well, I was gonna You went where I was going to go This is a subject of intense discussion At the highest level between the United States and India and we'll find We've got to navigate all those complex it all those complexities You know, that's being a practitioner. That's you know, the real world that you live in you've you've got to develop policies you've got to Come up with activities and and so we'll work through all that it is complex there's no doubt and We note that India has a better relationship with China this year than last which is last was was pretty bad And they've talked about having a normal year. We support that by the way We want a good relationship with China too, and I accompanied Secretary Mattis to Beijing where they had very good discussions We we had clear areas of disagreement over the South China Sea and Taiwan and other issues, but We ultimately all want a more stable constructive relationship with China. So We'll we'll work with our friends in in India to try to navigate all that and develop common approaches And I don't know that I can get into much specificity at this point, but I'm confident you can work through it and get there Your first question on Local politics domestic politics being supportive of the relationship, you know I think all we can do as a as a partner is articulate what why we think the relationship is important what we think the Capacity to work with one another may be and and articulate a future vision for the relationship I don't think we can spend a lot of time trying to game out local politics in India We'll have to leave that to the central government in Delhi but I think we can make a compelling case at the national level while this is important and And we'll rely on our friends in the national government to deal with the local politics for the most part Sure Friends cannot be isolated from from from the economics of the country. That's all I was saying So therefore if there has to be a lasting relationship There has to be an economic element to it as well as a defense element, which is what you were Which is where we started so I just like you to amplify because ultimately it's it's the grassroots That will define the longevity of the strategy because jobs Technology industry is not really you know, we India is basically a consumption story But we are not supporting that consumption with local investment in industry So, you know, there has to be some element in your discussions. I feel well You're you're talking about issues that are sort of beyond my purview with the Pentagon It can I I can agree with you that the economic component needs to be strong and that that's key to sustaining broad support at local levels for the relationship going into the future I can tell you one of the reasons we're interested in expanding defense industrial cooperation why we have programs For example, we have what used to be DIUX now DIU because we're no longer experimenting We may have the opportunity to have an Indian liaison officer there We're looking at a ways to expand defense industrial cooperation so that we can be seen on the defense side as contributing possibly to Positive development in India and you know, we see it from the defense perspective Joint projects collaboration in between defense industry Creates better opportunities for interoperability, which is then enabling for training and exercising and so on so forth But there's clearly a domestic Benefit for India if we're involved in in that kind of collaboration. So I from the Defense Department I can only appreciate your comment and say that I agree. It's important But I don't leave that to my colleagues elsewhere in government to really focus and drill down on Yes, sir. Thank you. Thank you for doing this Sorry, my name is my name is Donghui Yu with China the real news agency of Hong Kong Randy in terms of the military presence and deployment in the area, how would you compare Trump administrations in into Pacific strategy and Obama administrations Asia rebalancing strategy, how would you compare these two? Is there any differences or Let us see me let it is. Thank you. Sure When I was part of the loyal opposition and the Obama administration I was always supportive of the so-called pivot or rebalance I'm not sure they ever landed on how they were going to brand that but the pivot rebalance because I certainly agreed that the Pacific was a priority and Over time our that should be reflected in our defense Postured and our capabilities and I think the Obama administration did things to move us in that direction I think one of the biggest advantages we have is we've got Congress now resourcing the Department of Defense At a better level Obama administration was trying to do all this during sequestration Which was damn hard because not only are the real resources not there There's also the perceptions that that sequestration created in the region. You know what would our Up tick through the pivot or rebalance be sustainable durable given budgetary constraints, etc So we've got Congress fully committed To resourcing our defense needs. We've got a very good up tick We want to be good stewards of that and do the right thing and prove that we're We're worthy and that there's payoff for the American taxpayer and that's what we're looking to do We may not be Resourced at the same level every year, but we've got very good support from the Congress through programs like the maritime security initiative Which is a capacity building effort throughout Southeast Asia other programs of similar nature So I think that's our our biggest advantage. We're really working hand-in-glove with Congress to resource this effort People lovely from a secret centrifuge studies GW one of the centerpiece of course of the upcoming dialogue is the Indo-Pacific and My wanted to raise the one simmering Crisis that's been going on since February in the Indo-Pacific and that's the Maldives and It seems to me that some of the concerns that you raised about free and open All come together in the Maldives given that there's been a coup and authoritarian authoritarian government Chinese have basically overtaken rather starkly India's Long-standing political and strategic advantages there and so it seems to be having flipped pretty much Including the Maldives returning the several helicopters to India and so forth. So my question is Is the Maldives of concern to the United States how much concerned are you on that and what lessons of anything? Have you taken away from? India's action or non-action during this crisis, which is you know still simmering given that there's elections coming up in the end of September so and will that be on the agenda and the upcoming talks Thank you for raising this. This is an issue of concern And as you say, it's still simmering. So I don't want to go into great detail or specificity about Potential responses because it is a dynamic situation to some extent. I think we will We have been discussing this with our friends in India and very well may come up the 2 plus 2 But I think you know a number of things you can you can count on we need to shine a light on What's happening there? Because I don't think it's it's well understood or well known outside of small circles of people who deal with these issues But there should be broader concern because it's not only about the unfortunate people there who have seen judges thrown in jail opposition leaders jailed or exiled It's it's it's a matter of a broader Regional problem when you when you fold in the China piece to that they don't have any particular concern about Freedom or political liberties there and the future of the people there. They have concerns about their own influence and access So that we need to shine a light on all that And bring in the experiences of others and look at Djibouti look at Sri Lanka look at other examples where countries Brought the Chinese in under certain circumstances certain conditions and certain understandings and that quickly evolved in a direction where China was exerting undue influence and eroding the sovereignty of Countries in question now the leader may not care He may be making a deal that's kind of financially benefit him and ensure that he can maintain Political control, but I suspect the people Would care greatly so that's why shining a light is still important. We saw in Vanuatu for example when stories started to emerge about the Chinese negotiating for a base There was a backlash there So shining a light on that is important beyond that You know looking at particular measures and and things in the toolkit looking at what we might be able to do on visas looking What would might be able to do on? economic Consequence those are all things that are under consideration, but as you noted It's it's a simmering dynamic situation. So I wouldn't go into a lot of detail at this point So hi, I'm Phoenix Huang with Hong Kong Phoenix TV. Nice to see you again. Mr. Shriver So I have a question that could you please give us a broader picture about how did the how does the US and India military cooperation move forward and specifically on military sales that we know that India wants want to get the US Emo system, which is the electronic catapult system for the aircraft carrier and also How how likely how possible is the US want to? Sell the FAA team to the India for their aircraft carrier. Thank you. I think the Security assistance aspect defense sales aspect of our relationship is going to have an upward trajectory we certainly want to Convey to our Indian friends that that we want to be a partner of choice when it comes to their defense and security needs There are several Prongs to that overall approach we've got to get these enabling agreements in place So there are certain things you're talking about that. We're not in a position to do right now because the enabling agreements aren't there We need to do that we need to Make clear where we can provide capability and alternatives to what they're considering now And we we had a previous discussion about their air defense needs So clarifying what we can do is as an alternative and being a good partner there We need to build confidence and trust over time. So, you know, we've gone from zero Defense sales. I forget the exact time on a decade ago or so to 18 billion dollars, but we're still growing comfortable with one another learning about you know our very complex FMS system and and how we Support those programs So I again, I think that trajectory it will will be upward I don't want to get into specific details about the systems you're asking about that'll all be discussed and Worked through I think on the on the exercise training side we're going to see an uptick in the as I said the complexity scope of those exercises and Our ability to do that in a multilateral environment as well bringing in other countries to those those exercises So overall we're very Bullish as I said earlier and and defense security cooperation will be a part of that Yeah, my name is Ramesh Dishpande One question today's Worcester general career carries an article Saying that both China and Russia are working hard to surpass US conventional defense capacity No, they want to create it almost equal situation there and There the element of space defense is assuming a lot of important with China India has made good progress on the space side. Did they developing up? Do you see any potential for India and US to cooperate on developing space-based defense strategy? a very good question, so first point I would make is you've Articulated the main reason we produced the national defense strategy that we did pillar number one is to Make great power competition a Priority and how we approach our defense posture and Requirements and doctor and etc. And prepare to deal with near-care competitors Having that in our national defense strategy is very empowering for bureaucrats like me, but for our services for our combatant commands, so we're thinking long and hard about how to be Prepared for whatever China and Russia may do on the conventional side as well as the strategic side so it's it's been It's been an effort that has enjoyed very senior Leadership President Trump endorsed the national security strategy, which talked about China as a Strategic competitor secretary Mattis's national defense strategy, and you'll see a steady flow of that our national military strategy will be coming out At some point in the not too distant future So that's the general point the specific point. I think we'd be very interested in exploring The possibilities in the area of space I'm sure you're following the developments on our side and the interest in creating a space Possibly a possibly a separate service is what Secretary Mattis will discuss with the Congress, but a space force and a separate command is is probably the interim step That's being done for a reason it's being done because we realize the Growing challenges in space and having good partners with capability is surely going to be of interest to us as we go forward Thank you. My name is Serene U.s. In the security forum in cyber force is cybersecurity a Mutual topic of the discussion that you plan to have in this two-plus two or I guess in a similar form Yeah, I I don't know how Specific or what level of detail we'd get into on cyber security But I think is if you talk about regional security challenges, and you obviously gravitate towards some common shared concerns about China and North Korea for that matter There's certainly a cyber component to that. So it's something that we're Again looking broadly for partners who have not only the shared concerns but capabilities and ideas about best practices We need to do better on cyber. We're gonna have another strategy paper coming out on on cyber for the department We have created a cyber command. So again, I think it's an area where we need strong partners with good ideas and I Think we'll be compelled to talk about that either in this forum or elsewhere given the challenges we face from China Let me just add to that We've actually had a dialogue under the rubric of homeland security for many years But the interesting question to consider is whether there is a defense component particularly as Efforts at interoperability and integration begin whether we need to bring that Under the specific rubric of defense. That's something to think about. Yeah, I think there could be and and we were It's the expression we were trying to fly while we were building the plane I mean in cyber is something that we we aren't particularly Organized well for but we're trying to get better and the creation of cyber command and thinking of the defense components of that Has now positioned us. I think to talk to partners in the defense space about it. Hi, Sullivan gasman I'm with the International Energy Partnership you mentioned How important it is that we give space to India Given the excuse me Pakistan Given their recent elections on certain areas. I actually wanted to ask you a bit about how our Strategy in India can be affected by our own elections. I just given that You know every four years there's a chance our leadership who determines our approach and meeting our objectives and even the Objectives themselves can change. So yeah, I just wanted to ask you a bit about How that timeline, you know given Bush to Obama Obama to Trump affects your strategy Well where I said it doesn't it doesn't enter into the calculus much because we've seen Consistency understanding the value of this relationship and and trying to really push the envelope of where the potentials are And I would add in Congress, you know one of the it used to be the largest I don't know if it's still it's still the largest caucus in Congress is the India caucus and it's bipartisan and I've Participated in some discussions with them and with Secretary Mattis and When you go into one of those meetings, you know, it's it's standing room only So that leads me to think that this is not a partisan issue. It's not a one administration versus another issue There's large consensus in the United States about wanting to build this relationship out and gives me confidence that We'd do that no matter the outcome of future elections And the same is true in India Good reason for yes. Thank you very much Benjamin to a no-current affiliation Could you say something about? your comments on Iran about possible US Collaborate US India collaboration or lack of it in the Middle East I'm thinking specifically of Egypt Palestine Israel Syria Turkey I think the Conversations that I've been involved in the preparations we're making have largely focused on the Indo-Pacific. I think Secretary Mattis Secretary Pompeo obviously have global responsibilities and think globally you know in a way that I don't always do it is a Assistant Secretary with regional responsibilities So I would assume if those topics to come up at the two plus two or beyond we would have interested parties on our side to have that discussion because We see the US India relationship is really grounded by a shared vision shared interests come from a you know to large democracies so if If we can partner with one another in those areas, I'm sure our leadership would be interested in having that discussion I'm gonna take one last question that goes to the young lady there. Thank you Katie Wang with NTD TV Recently DOD released the annual congressional report on China This report seems quite different from the reports we have seen before So can you share more of your thoughts? While preparing for this report and the methodology so Yeah, it's I'm not sure I would have shared that characterization, but It's interesting that you note that I think what's different is China continues to develop improve change So our reports reflect that we try through the China military power report to do a very objective Non-politicized description of what China is doing to advance its capabilities I'd date myself if I said Joe Friday just the facts, but that's if you if you know that reference That's how we approach the China military power report just the facts But I think the facts are the China has been making rapid progress in certain areas That's what you get when you devote double-digit increases to your defense budget for over a decade now almost two decades You get improvement and you get advancements and so You know the power report looks at things that previous ones didn't hypersonic the developments in hypersonics Anti-ship ballistic missiles and a range of things. We didn't have to talk about a decade ago So I wouldn't have characterized it that way. I just would have said we were reporting the facts here And that's what the facts are And me let me thank you for not just taking the time, but of course I'm very thankful for But for the extraordinary effort and commitment that you brought to this position in the job At a time when you know there is considerable flux in the United States in the international community and to be able in the face of those circumstances to sort of stay the course and Do the work that you guys doing diligently you and your staff. I really want to thank you as a citizen Thank you And of course I want to thank you on behalf of Carnegie for spending the morning here with us You're welcome anytime. You want to come back? Well, let's let's do this again the gauntlet again. Let's do this again. We would love that. Yeah, we would love that Appreciate it. Thank all of you for coming here this morning. Stay tuned Mr. Shriver gave us a preview of what is likely to happen in the next week And I'm sure at some point we'll have an opportunity to pick up the threads and continue this discussion again So thank you very much and have a good day. Thank you. Thank you