 It is time to talk some DFS once again the week one main slate has been up for about a month now And we finally got games on the horizon We're going to break down our favorite options across week one for NFL DFS on Fandu Let you know some key strategies to consider and hopefully just get you set wins and cash in the opening week of the 2022 NFL season welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as always by branding gandula. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm branded It is week number one. How we doing, baby Man you got like the well you got the week one energy I was gonna see you're in like mid-season. I got an espresso machine yesterday Brandon. I got oh you did for days Oh, you did not tell me this. Yeah, I know because you judge my coffee taste, which I don't drink Folgers anymore for the record Okay. Yeah, I do buy an espresso machine and use Folgers in it No, I mean no offense the Folgers, but it's yeah, no It's if you want to spot the podcast Folgers will take your cash, but also I'm not drinking your coffee anymore so it's counter-ethical to buy an espresso machine and then Put not invest in proper listen coffee. I became a fancy boy this summer I wouldn't ask you're drinking a espresso. Yeah, I went to Europe twice actually and so now I've become a fancy boy who drinks espresso and So I have JJ our old boss on the covering the spread to talk player prompts afternoon My like words per minute is gonna be Astronomical based on how fast I talk way too fast to begin with I'm aware of this I try to talk slower, but by 3 p.m Gonna be nuts. I won't be able to like say syllables. It's gonna be unhinged and I'm excited for it Well, I think that's why we work well together we I Talk very slowly and you talk very quickly. So I think average out were we're pretty set Also, the reason we work well together is because we fully agree on everything as one-eyed Jack productions remind us on YouTube Let's win some money on Debo again this year one-eyed Jack Yes, as mentioned, we are live on the Fandal YouTube page We'll be here every Monday and Thursday at 10 a.m. Eastern breaking down doing a recap podcast Monday Preview podcast Thursday live on the Fandal YouTube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast seat after that Sustained schedule as we had all of last year excited to break things down with you Brandon If you are a new listener here to the heat check fantasy podcast the way things go We'll go through a slate overview Let you know kind of the key things to know for this week. We'll talk about some injuries impacting the slate We're gonna go through bookmaker info talk about some gain stacks and stuff like that also a Trends section which this week will large to be focused on Overall DFS process because I know a lot of you may be playing DFS for the first time So you want to kind of give you the tools you need to fill out a good lineup We'll talk about some weather and we'll go through our positional place at the end of the podcast So giving you the tools to hopefully make good picks early on and we will talk about guys We like at the end of the podcast But the overall thought process is we want to discuss Process in the podcast so that you don't need us. We want to make ourselves irrelevant That's kind of the goal here We want to make it where by week 10 you can listen to us if you want But we want you to kind of know the keys to a good lineup all by your own We're gonna break down those key things to discuss in just one second But first college football fans the 2022 season is officially underway in Fandall and DeGiorno Are joining forces to make your college and football Saturdays that much more exciting Introducing the Saturday slice challenge presented by DeGiorno a free to play daily fantasy contest centered around Saturday's biggest college football games the contest is simple All you to do is build your best seven-player roster while staying under the salary cap Then follow along as the games unfold with Fandall's live scoring feature If at the end of the games your lineup finds itself toward the top of the standings You'll win a slice of $10,000 and cash prizes courtesy of DeGiorno The Saturday slice challenge locks at on Saturday at noon Eastern So we've got a fandall.com slash league slash DeGiorno dash CFB and that's your lunch today That's fandall.com slash league slash DeGiorno dash CFB also a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy Podcasts we have this NFL podcast twice per week. We have NASCAR USC daily fantasy baseball PGA just around the corner all in the same feed So search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast see wherever you get your podcast Hit subscribe and get all these as they are posted also all of our betting stuff is on the cover in the spread podcast feed Our week two cause football preview is up with Ed Fang and Drew Martin I talked to Ryan Williams about five minutes ago about the week one NFL betting slates Got his favorite pets for there and also like I said, we'll talk to JJ Zacharyson the prop betting discussion later on today Let's dive in now though and talk about week number one Let's start things off here with our slate overview of Brandon again Just kind of the key headline for you heading into week number one So when you look at the main slate on Fandall for this week What is the key thing you're keeping in mind for week one? Don't count up that bankroll before the the afternoon games the four o'clock games on the east coast those are largely the best games of the week with Kansas City, Arizona the So I'm still not used to Las Vegas They're playing the Chargers Green Bay, Minnesota and then a potentially like sneaky at least some seal at least one big ceiling With Tennessee and the Giants there I never never never think a slate's over To oh, yeah, yeah, but never think that the slate is over If Derek Henry's game is not complete, I've learned that the hard way in the past but More specifically we want to stack up the best games and there are very clearly Four games that stand out above the rest and three of those are coming in late in the day Yeah so I think if we're listing out the quarterbacks I'd want to use they're like four and Three of them are in the four four p.m. Games like that's kind of goes back to what you're saying where you kind of want to be Measured I also think it makes the late swap pretty active for this week because you're probably gonna have a lot of guys left in that in that time timeframe, so Get it read and where you're at deciding do I need to get trurian should I potentially be a bit more chalky things like that? Heading into those 425 p.m. Eastern games. So Brandon's talking about being wary of that I Want to make sure that and this is a thing we will talk about a lot But my key thing is don't get too drawn in by value at the expensive raw points There are guys who are objectively under salary on this week one slate due to role changes injuries stuff like that But do they have upside and we'll talk about this a lot throughout the year, but You need raw points. So a You know, we'll hear a lot about okay 2.5x or 3x value. What that means is you're getting 2.5 fandal points for every thousand dollars a worth of fandal salary So let's say a guy is hypothetically at $6,000 on fandal was sourced $6,000 2.5x who I put myself in a pickle 15 points I thought you'd go 10 10,000. I know that would have been a lot easier But like if they get you 2.5x that's 15 points. That's fine But you need a lot of juice to take down a tournament So value is good. You want guys who are under salary, but make sure they have a path to a ceiling I want every single player in my roster to have a chance to give me 20 fangal points Whether they are a value running back a value receiver value tight end Let me not value tight end but like value other spots. I want a path to 20. Otherwise They're probably not viable So that's going to be a key thing for me in terms of talking about some of the guys who may pop In terms of like value projections this week But keeping in mind that we do need raw points at a certain point as well And some of those value plays may come from injuries Let's dive in the injury section for week number one. Unfortunately, it's still kind of lengthy despite opinion week one It begins with the kind of surprise when George Kittle got hurt during monday's practice He missed wednesday's practice with a groin issue. He's day to day Kittle Is not healthy. We can say that for sure How does this impact your view of the 49ers passing offense in a match up with a pretty poor chicago bears defense Yes, it definitely doesn't help The total is what 40 and a half in that game one of the lowest of the week That matters whenever we have games that are projected to score, you know If you just look at the the total at vandal sports book 10 plus more points than this game that adds up Even if things are concentrated, of course, if things are concentrated It does help a little bit for us to buy into lower totals, but Definitely dings things this game. I think you mentioned the four quarterbacks We'll we'll talk about them one guy who's in the consideration set for I think both of us But maybe just misses out is trey lands. Yeah, the salary of 7500 really good So a lot of rushing from him whenever he did play full full games last year but You take out George Kittle, um I don't know if it affects him as much Because of the rushing as it would other quarterbacks But I really think that uh this game's still a little bit in play for mini stacks And by a mini stack, I mean Maybe like a darno mooney plus a brand and iuk is like a value kind of stack and say hey if this game Does kind of be decent. Uh, it's probably going to flow through darno mooney on the on the bear side Um, but then iuk maybe debo samuel who salary I know is as much higher than brand and iuk's but It lowers me this game is not that appealing anyway But I don't think it's a complete write-off like some other games might be this week. Yeah, I think that Lance is at least in the discussion is what I would say and I said there are four quarterbacks He's probably pretty firmly number five. I would say so he's there Having kittle be out would be a downgrade for him. I would say though that brand and iuk is Good in a vacuum of 5600 on fan duel. He'd be really good If there are no kid, I will say though that if you're looking at um situations in which Popular wide receivers wind up flopping or falling short of expectations Low total games are situations where they fall short almost every time so Keep that in mind. It is a low total game but Just from like a a volume perspective that you could probably grade out pretty well if kill were not good But it would downgrade lance from me Alan is our best practice wednesday if you're getting stepped on in practice last week He has an ankle injury that puts his status up in the air Robert tonyan and david bhakti yari both limited during practice wednesday So the packers facing the vikings. It's a poopy game in terms of pace But it's a pretty fun game from an offensive perspective and there's fun players in it So how does your view of this packers offense change if lasard cannot go? Yeah, classic packers wanted us, you know playing slowly, uh, but being appealing to some degree I think the best play on their side is erin jones and historically have not been huge on erin jones But I think that uh based on indications from like what erin rogers has said They're gonna lean on erin jones, but not only erin jones, uh, a g dylan out of the back field He said we need to get our 11 best guys on the field Sounds like to him that includes both running backs Usually when we have two running backs, we don't have a running back for dfs, but This has kind of been erin jones's situation for a long time I think if this if the running backs plate was worse, I would actually be a little bit intrigued by a g dylan But I don't know if i'm quite there myself Because we have a lot of running backs that we'll go over, uh, especially at the top of the salary pool But I'd say erin jones is number one and I think I know demonte adams is vacating a 32 target share mbs is gone, but If you remove lasard, this kind of feels like it's going to be Uh, a cults kind of offense where you're surprised if anyone really Sustainably cracks like a 20 target share and I don't think that that's enough for me in week one to want to go there I think the same walk-ins would be at least mildly intriguing to $5,500 Randall cob maybe at 51, but like I think the upside question is biggest with him typically to make a perfect lineup at Wide receiver on fans. You need 85 yards or two touchdowns and I'm not sure cob could really Get to either which is why I agree with you where Jones is the best piece in this game. They had one game last year with no Devonte and no lasard. That was a coveted game against the cardinals into that game erin jones A gdylan had 16 carries so he was involved but erin jones had 15 carries and 11 targets in that game and I want as many targets on my roster as I can possibly get erin jones gets me that for 74 so I agree with you where he's had his flaws, but with the Role, I think you'll have in this offense. I am very very intrigued by him at $7,400 Zachar it's able to get in a limited session on wednesday increasing the odds He's able to go against the chiefs ron dale more was not on the injury reports So he's good to go. We'll talk about that game in the bookmaker section jk dobbins has a shot to play week one But is far from a lock Dobbins Got in a limited practice wednesday, but john harbaugh wouldn't commit to him playing lamar said we hope he's back in a couple weeks So i'm guessing dobbins probably won't go likely leaving it to mike davis and kenyon drake It's against the jets brandon. We should like that situation, but uh You got anything here on these two backs? um No, this is not really the backfield either where you're gonna see it Like a ceiling game this backfield notoriously Under harbaugh does not Give running backs specific running backs high snap rates. Nobody got over 67 percent last year um You know dobbins could be that guy fully healthy But I think that it's just a pretty easy avoid for me and i'm not tempted even a little bit It's not even just like the the snap it's also they don't get them targets And I just want I want to monopolize targets I want as many as I can possibly get and i'm probably not going to get that here So uh davis's salary is very low. It is uh, $5,600 but I think that's he's in the value discussion like Oh, it'll probably be a value, but is it enough to actually move the needle? Probably not the jets on the opposing side won a zack wilson for week one joe flacco It's a wacko for flacco revenge game brandon I know you're excited for that any jets for you against the ravens here on sunday Um, so something brice hall and michael carter are going to split work early on with maybe even if a Like a favorable role for michael carter, which is bad for a lot of my season long teams Um, that'll probably be the last time I talk about my season long teams. Uh, I'll season so don't worry But I think maybe uh, you imagine more at 6000 has some appeal And I was talking to you before the show. I think that in this game Like lamar is appealing as a a bit of a we're not going to get any quarterback Be substantially popular we almost never do but I think like lamar plus mark andrews plus more could be a really Interesting week one stack because you're not you're getting a bit different But you're not being stupid, which is usually how you like to phrase that Yeah, be different without being stupid is kind of like my go-to in terms of deciding how to view things my question is will they actually be pivots because We love game stacks. We love those kinds of situations But people love attacking the jets and so I feel like we're probably going to see a lot of Eyeballs gravitate towards lamar looking at the fan share tags right now. They don't have a ton logged yet for week one But lamar is up there. Um, number two quarterback behind jalen hurts so What quarterback, we'll talk about that later. You're right. Good. Sorry, brandon Good, but we I mean we've we've been saying that at least for last year. We we've really touched on that a lot I don't I don't feel like I need to pivot away From quarterbacks. I think though if you look at tight end specifically we have travis kelsey in a great game at 8000 mark andrews at 7900 in a Much worse game. I know the matchup looks good But then we have darren waller at 7000. Kyle pits is only 6 000 I don't think mark andrews is going to be substantially popular and really week one We don't see a ton of complete chalk but again It's going to be it's going to be different enough Especially if you pair that with a jet to run it back Yeah, the combination of that is going to be pretty pretty unique I think the overlooked stud tight end Is in a different game. We'll talk about later on You mentioned him, but I don't think he'll be very popular this week. Did y'all at waller? Yeah, buddy Yeah, buddy. Yep Going to happen going to be good Michael thomas is a hamstring injury got in a limited practice on wednesday Saints are the decent spot against the falcons How are you viewing them here under the assumption that thomas is good to go? Which might be a bad assumption based on the past couple years Yeah, um, I was kind of thinking he'd be an interesting week one play but uh What uh, they're they're at 24 point implied team total. That's pretty hefty For this this slate. I think chris olave 5000 is appealing Um, especially if thomas is not a full go But I think the most appealing play here similar to the packers. It's just going to be the running back oven chimera Um, his workload. I'll touch on in one of my trends pretty phenomenal. I think the offense is going to be better this year for him inject a good A great workload into even a good offense for an elite player That's very appealing. So Probably not super in uh on this game overall, but maybe i'm too low on it. What are your thoughts? I i'm not super in and on it either So if if you're too low on it, then so am I just again, I want games at super high totals This one is not going to check that box at 42 and a half I don't expect the falcons offense to be very good against a very very good saint's defense. So To me, i'm okay being a bit lower on this one at least for now. Deontay johnson has a shoulder injury He did not commit to playing on sunday. It sounds like he probably will Uh, but didn't commit to it. Uh, they faced the bangles this week Mitchell Trabisci starting here for the Steelers What's your view of this passing offense with Deontay being banged up? Um a lot of value If you want value and I know we're not taking value just for the sake of value but Chase claypool george pickens these guys should have some upside with their athleticism and their ability You know inferior to score touchdowns if if pittsburgh scoring touchdowns pat fryermuth uh 5300 Should have a pretty solid role. Um, if there's especially if there's no uh, deontay johnson There'd be a lot of overlap there with kind of targets. They'd probably try to get him So I think that this is one of the more appealing value offenses Especially if you want to stack up the bangles We're not going to talk about this game specifically about, you know, in terms of being a good stack But anytime you can play joe burrow and uh, jamar chase plus t higgins And or uh, joe mixon like you have to be into that And you can bring it back in ways that aren't really that silly and I think that that could be, you know This could end up being one of those games that um, I'm assuming. Yeah, it's a one o'clock game at like 230, you know, maybe halftime. It's like, oh, this was a pretty obvious stack to sort of Pick up on but you know, maybe maybe it's kind of uh overlooked Yeah, a burrow burrow seven seven hundred dollars higgins is seven thousand chases 82 but like if you did a burrow Higgins, uh, george pickens bring back Pretty fun. I i'm not opposed to that Because I agree with you. We're like, okay. We're getting a hyper logical team We're being different without being dumb. We know where the ball is going at least on the the bengal side of things Not what can really only go so many places for this dealer. So Yeah And but you know, but it can't go left with mr. Biscay. So it's going in the dirt or going right that you choose But you know for for pittsburgh specifically like the value plays are I mean, we saw chase claypool. What that one week you played him a couple years ago He's four touchdowns four touchdowns Like george picken. Yeah, like pickens is a very good athlete like these guys can put up 1718 fandal points their ceiling isn't like 12 fandal points Yes, I think that's correct. Uh, sterling shepherd logged a limited practice on wednesday He said he'll play this week coming off a torn achilles any interest in the giants passing offense against the titans The giants always feel and I know I'll limit like my personal like dynasty team and like season long team stuff But the giant don't see with the giants because I have a lot of dairy estate and stuff. That is bad bad bad bad It's dead. It's so big They're like a they're like a bad dynasty roster for me. I'm like, oh, no, these guys like they got it Like wandale, tony like these guys like they're they're good football players but you put that in a dfs perspective and You don't really know who's going to get a high market share, uh, especially in week one I kind of want to take a wait and see approach. But again These guys should have some upside. I think specifically cadarius tony at 5300 is appealing Yes, because you can pair him with derrick henry who could be really chalky But also might be kind of overlooked because the game's not as appealing as some of the other games that the stud running backs are in Derek henry was Phenomenal when he was healthy last year kind of slipped in redraft this year, which does have some overlap I think especially with like week one sentiment and and how we view things henry salaries up there I think a henry plus tony balances things out. I think that's a really really easy, you know many stack there I don't i'm not going to play the quarterbacks But you know if I went derrick henry, I at least probably want to bring it back a little bit And I think tony is the number one place i'm welcome. Well, think about the reason tony's salary is 53 It's 53 because there's a heavy tie between adp and average wrap position in season long and uh, Fandral salaries probably not a coincidence, but like He was pushed down because of injuries But he was not on the injury report on wednesday. He got a full practice and it wasn't even logged as being injured Like if we get a healthy cadarius tony for 5300 dollars given the Targets per route run data for him last year the yards per route run I think we'd be insane to pass him up honestly And I don't think he'll be popular. I don't think so So I agree with you a henry plus tony stack very attractive in week one And I will have that at some point. I definitely think that that is a worthwhile look for this week shepherd. No wandale I loved him, uh, like when he was with Nebraska getting some rushing attempts stuff like that I hope he gets that with the giants too a little debo in him um I'm not sure the adat will be high enough to justify rostering yet, but tony. I know Things are good. What? I just I know I know I know I know I know with a debo thing I feel like there's been a like a lower adat Uh, sort of player who got some rushes. Do you love for a long time? I just But debo's got that dog in him wandale probably does too, but you know, we we know the debo does James robinson appears poised to return this week coming off his torn Achilles Didn't play in the preseason, uh, and they are travis etn Absolutely dominated snaps of the first team offense So any interest in etn in this game for the jaguars against the washington commanders One of the one of the ugliest games one of the least appealing games of the week. Um I do spoiler alert my my my love on defense is washington But I think for the expected role for etn with the targets being what they are Spoiler alert. We love targets here even on fandal half ppr site. We'll talk about that in the transaction. Yep. Talk Yeah, we'll talk. I think we'll probably talk about it two or three times honestly in the transaction, but um I think that he's appealing. I think christian kerks appealing The problem is I don't know if I really want to run it back very much I actually don't to be completely honest. I don't know what antonio gibson's salary is I don't care. I don't Care 68 that's oh my goodness. That's higher way higher than I anticipated who um, those are early august salaries, buddy But yeah, I mean etn at 62 With the potential. I mean there's really no ceiling for what his targets could be you could just be basically be de andre swift um So I think he's got a lot of appeal for for a path to upside despite in spite of his offense I agree. I think etn is the only guy I want to use here kirk Like I get it. I think that your thought process is good Um, I just there are a lot of guys in more attractive games in that range I like maybe that means that kirk will just be a super low roster But I think I'd rather go with the guys in the the potential shootout games I don't care as much about game environment at running back because I do a receiver I care about it, but I don't care as much. So etn to me Given the type of role I expect him to have even with james robinson healthy I think is very good. Uh gibson. I expect to lose high leverage work to gd bachissac. He might lose some like He he could find a way to lose goal line work too So, uh, no interest there, but etn I think is interesting for sure 62 Not a lot of low salary backs. I like this week, but etn is one of them Let's dive in now to what the bookmakers are saying about this week And one thing I want to flag before we dive into this is The reason we discuss bookmaker info is because Bookmakers are smart people who bet on nfl games have a lot of money online and therefore are smart as well And the signals they give us give us are important. We want to target high scoring games Preferably with tight totals as well to get that back and forth potential shootout. So we're gonna talk about basically Games we want to stack in the bookmaker section Now when I say I want to stack this game that does not mean I want as many guys in this game as possible I want to Have smart exposure to this game Probably two to three guys on one side one to two on the other side Keeping it like that. We're not saying just use every single guy from this game Stacking is when you pair guys in the same team or from the same game together a game stack is same game A straight up stack is on the same team. So that's the preface for everything We're going to run into here. Let's dive in to the bookmaker info starting off with the highest total on the board That is a cheese at the cardinals Total there 53 and a half spread is five and a half up to up from three and a half Earlier on this week much to minus may this I may or may not have the cardinals and money line. Whoops Mistakes have been made brandon. That's for sure. A lot of old faces and new places in this game We got marquise brown. We've got marquez valdez scantlin. We got juju smith schuster It's a lot. How confident are you in those new guys in their new roles and what could be the slates best game? Yeah, that's a tough one. Um, this is uh, the this is the kind of question that doesn't have A specific answer we can want it to have an answer. We can feel like it has an answer But we don't quite know That is a problem. I think it's a lot easier on Arizona side honestly to to figure out market shares and number one with marquise brown Um, he's a guy. I love a lot this week, but for the chiefs I'm kind of into a lot of options I think I'd have to lean marquez valdez scantlin specifically for the salary and if we can project The teams in the past have used guys in ways that are optimal then the guy with the higher a dot and the the path to much more Air yards, which yes air yards do matter They're pretty predictive Yards alone are great, but doesn't necessarily help us find buy lower or Sell high windows So I would go marquez valdez scantlin number one among the receivers Of course, I think it's a given that travis kelsey's like the first place I'd look for a past catching option Yeah, um sounds like it seems like based on the reaction jim's jim is making is that he loves marquez valdez scantlin So I'll let you extrapolate on that, but I also want to make sure that we touch on clad edwards you layer Yeah, so we're retiring the mvs nickname. He's no longer mvs. He is mvp. Um That's just how it's going to go for mvs this year. He just called him mvs Oh, yeah, sorry. We're retired mvp Most our marquez valdez player. I don't know. We'll figure this out. We'll workshop it We'll get the interns who don't exist to to work on this. I decide I want to play things here, but I think Fifty five hundred dollars. We talked a lot about, you know Things you want to look for in value wide receivers and for me that checklist is Finding guys who get downfield targets, uh, because that has been a situation that's been can do stuff Side in the past for lower salary players guys who get downfield targets in efficient offenses Not a lot of offense is more efficient than that of patrick mahomes So you're plugging marquez valdez scambling into this they're facing There's one of cardinals and the cardinals we saw last year that the cheese faced a lot of like two high secondaries Where they'd have two safeties lined up and that forced the cheese to kind of audible and run You know a lot more of a dink and dunk kind of offense and and feast based on yards after the catch I don't the cardinals didn't run that as much As other teams did so to me that says we have more leeway To potentially go with a guy like mvs and feel pretty good about him. Of course, I do like juju's misseuster too I think that you know One thing that I do we've talked about this plenty on the show previously But uh for the new listeners one thing that I do is when I'm multi-engineer tournaments, I'll fill out A skeleton of combinations So for one lineup I'll go patrick mahomes travis kelsey running back with marquise brown Patrick mahomes travis kelsey running back with james connor stuff like that I think that I want to make sure i'm getting all these guys in there But marquise valda scaling if I have like one lineup He's probably going to be the way I get exposure to this game Because of the role he could potentially have in this offense and because of the matchup with a cardinal Seen that doesn't run as much too high as others may and he mentioned claire towards eleir I've thought a lot about him An unhealthy amount for the past month because you could tell right away This game is going to be among the best games on the slates because I total Previously tight spread again boo-hoo me um Those situations are the ones we want to stack with claire towards eleir had gallbladder surgery last offseason And kind of mixed reviews during the preseason this year in terms of He's used to with the first team offense in one of the games He ran he played the first seven consecutive plays back in preseason week one In the next game he played he did rotate out a bit more but still have a decent role He's 5800 dollars I think this team is going to be better equipped to run the ball than they were in past years because mvs and juju are both Sorry mvp and juju are both very good blockers We could see some more no agrarian joy forts jody forson out there to You know enable the rushing offense to the cheese. It's another way to counter that too high approach They see on the opposing side I Haven't I'm still very nervous about him. I think I'll still want to be on ceh But I wish we had gotten a more firm answer on him in the preseason about what kind of role he's going to have this year Yeah, this feels like a little bit of a trap where we want to want the role to be better than it is It's very easy to anticipate or tell yourself that a role is better than it is it's a lot harder to be More objective and you know be okay missing out if you know ceh goes out plays 75 percent of snaps is just kind of Treated as a more of a feature back in a great game I think that the best route is Uh, I'll play ceh when I have other pieces in this game when I'm trying to stack it up more But I'm not going to play ceh as a one-off Not really like a cash game consideration even at that salary. That's not a cash game consideration Absolutely not there I will probably have him as a one-off Like if I'm like if I'm going with like a justin herbert Mike williams darren waller thing where I need to say some salary I think I could see ceh is a one-off there But I also like the running back on the opposing side of this game. James connor Last year when there was no chase edmunds connor's role was amazing five game sample 17 carries 5.2 targets per game 114.4 yards and scrimmage per game. That's a sick role Connor's salary is not low by any means but 77 isn't fat either So what's read on beans connor and then talk about the cardinals offense to within that? Yeah, um, it it's definitely Appealing. I don't think it's necessarily more appealing than some other options around him that could be Maybe i'm just blinded by the deandre swift hype But I know what deandre swift's role can be whenever he's like he's not going to get scripted out of this game Even if if they're trailing and I love this game a lot I might even maybe prefer erin jones a smidge over james connor And if that's the case that is putting him in the territory of I can't play everyone Yeah, it'll you know, we're going to talk about a lot of people You know, so that we touch on a lot of the key players key plays this week, but I don't necessarily know if I'm there, but I do prefer him to like nick chubb on the 78. So Where are you with connor? How high up on the lifts this year for you? You might have said this. Will he be in game stacks for you? Oh, for sure. Okay, cool. So I think that's probably where I'm at too then where He is a fixture within game stacks, but then Not someone I actively seek out due to seiquan due to erin jones Maybe swift as well. I think that I agree with you there. So I think we're on the same page as james connor The guy I like a lot that was caught Murray If you look at and we'll talk about this a bit in the the trend section but if you look at the the biggest inefficiency in terms of where the public invests based on Fandall Sunday million roster rates and what pops are perfect lineups It is underdog quarterbacks. I'm not saying like oh 10 point dog. They're gonna throw it a lot Herpty derpy derpy should go towards them. I'm saying like tight underdogs competitive games The spread should not be five and a half in this game, but I think that that adds up well for kyler. So kyler likely to be Not super popular because of you know stuff that's going on this all season because the fact they are underdogs in this game He's not the most trapped the quarterback in this game I think kyler will be under roster. So I was talking about mvs being in a sorry mvp being in a single A single you're like one for five. I know MVP in a single entry lineup I am 75% sure kyler will be like my go-to Single entry quarterback because I think he'll be less roster than he should In a game where we could see a lot of fireworks. What are your thoughts on kyler? Yeah, I mean, I like Kyler Murray. I think him like this. He runs the ball. We know where the ball is going Assuming I mean He's one of the best quarterback plays the week and Like you said, he's probably not going to be as popular as he deserves to be We got a question about ron dale more over on youtube from when I jack productions asking if he would be the uh the debo of 2022 Probably not I would say in terms of being the debo, but he's $5,500. I think that's a little bit rich personally in terms of salary I'd rather go with hollywood rather go with james bruh james connor in terms of Guys I want to use in this team Will you get to ron dale more in game stacks this week? I think I could see myself getting there in game stacks. They're especially if zack earths is I mean, even if he plays he's not a hundred percent and with I'm pretty sure ron dale set like the lowest eight-odd record of a receiver in like three yards. Yeah Um, so you would think there'd be some overlap there, uh with the kind of targets that maybe zack earths would get Zacker it's not allowed to run ten yards downfield. Correct. Yes But yeah, I think ron dale in game stacks. Yes, uh, I'm there not necessarily in a one-off I've been there in the past with trying to assume huge roles for guys like this And it's really not worth it because we have more information on other teams. Yeah, okay I think that that is a fair assessment as well. Let's move on here to the second game on our list That is the other total above 50. That is the chargers and the raiders Total is 52 and a half a tighter spread here of three and a half But again Got a big new face here in davante adams. What's your view of this game for stacking chargers versus raiders? Um, yes Agreed we move on is that it? I mean Who's who in the realistic set is not Like in consideration. Okay, so I guess they're at car So in terms of like prioritization I'm gonna be pretty low at Austin Echler this week given his salary given Christian mccaffrey given Derek Henry I love Echler. I think that he's insanely fun Salaries a little bit rich for me. So in terms of like relative to salary Probably not there probably not on hunter renfor of 59 either I think like those would be the two guys I'd single out as being Plays this week And we're we're not a Josh Jacobs podcast. Oh, no, I wasn't he's not a real player. He wasn't Well, you know, he's still got a pretty high, you know, average draft position high enough. Um his Didn't he like start the the first day that was a bit overblown because yeah Yeah, I I think that his role is better than people are Are pitching it to be but he's not going to catch passes So no, he's a no for me. I guess I guess there are more more players We weren't really considering but true Yeah, um Do you ever I guess we we both have a preference between Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this week big Mike The name big is in his name His god-given name big Mike I don't want to I don't want to overlook Keenan Allen, but spoiler alert It's going to be hard for me to find salary for wide receivers this week I do think that like the main pitch for Keenan Allen is Being different without being dumb paying up to be contrarian in that situation I think that's the main pitch for him that with that said like we're talking about like single entry line-ups I would not go Keenan over Mike even considering that because I need to save salary. So Keenan will be in like my multi entry combinations, but not for Not the prime consideration over Mike Williams. The reason I like Mike Williams so much is He gets the kind of targets We like if you look at the 15 games that Mike Williams played with Keenan Allen last year Mike Williams had 40 of the team's deep targets and 23 the red zone overall target share was up and down it went all around it was not fun, but I just want those deep targets. We get that for a low salary You did a full piece on these two guys during the offseason and found the like Not a huge difference between them be fully honest. So for $6,600. I just I want big Mike in there Yeah, I love them this week like Keenan Allen. I think we're both lower on Echler than consensus, but we love Justin Herbert this week as well Yeah, Herbert is in the top four. We talked about four quarterbacks. We like he's one of those four for me for sure Um step below my home step below Kyler. I think he's on par a jail and hurts for me and I like hurts So that's an endorsement of both those guys but Just a step below those other two guys Do you think you will play Devonte Adams without a game stack? No, I don't need I can't either. I can't Just being real just being realistic. Yeah, I agree. Uh, but Darren Waller I will $7,000 for a guy who was not on the injury report. I think his hamstring injury might have been a Injured contract related more contract related than anything else, which fair get your money Um, so I'm not super worried about that not on the injury report on wednesday I think that's actually pretty impactful news. So if I want to You were you did you this full piece up on pivoting you found that Stud tight ends were under rostered. We're very good plays. I think that guy this week is Darren Waller I know it's an attractive game Which could make him more popular than I think but you get Kelsey in that electric game You get Andrews against the Jets. I don't think people use wall over those two So again going with the single entry angle I want Waller. I think he's very very fun I might not be able to get there because I want the cavalry to and that's tough to pair them together But I want to I want to try I want to try to make that happen because he's really fun this week Any final thoughts for you on this game? No, I wanted to make sure I touched on Devonte because obviously he's a gonna be a good play, but realistically we don't very often roster high salary receivers And we'll kind of get into why in a bit There's also a guy like more in the 8000 range of receiver named Justin freaking Jefferson Who is in that exact same range? Okay Sneakily one of the more fun games in the slates both in real life and in dfs Is between the Eagles and alliance? I love I love that this is a fun game That game is in Detroit Eagles are three and a half point favorites It ranks fourth for me in aggregate offensive efficiency But behind the two games we discussed and then also the Vikings versus Packers. What? Can I just ask, uh, what's the gerry golf boost for you? Is he like in top 12 level quarterback for you most efficient quarterback of football? What do you mean? What why are you questioning this? I mean, I love this game too. So I can't let me look at that No, let me look this up. Where do I Detroit projected to rank and passing efficiency 20th that might be kind of high Are there 20th we'll see we'll see about that Um Goff's back baby goff's back Mvs has been replaced as MVP goff MVP. Okay We have some low-salary piece in this game. I'm not using jared goff. I want to make that fully clear But what's your view of this game from a dfs perspective? Love it. You kind of hit on it where we have low salary plays I mean jamming her to the 8000 one of my favorite quarterback plays of the week Um pretty easy to understand why with his rushing ability But also just giving him a j brown Uh is pretty phenomenal a j brown salary of 7100 not nearly high enough for what the ceiling could be It was really important with wide receivers is Finding guys who can actually drastically outperform their salary DaVante Adams probably will have like a we don't Use this word a lot jim hates this word, but a high floor because of the volume I don't have the floor does not ignore the floor banner ready yet. So you caught me off guard here uh DaVante's got to put up like 23 at 8500 to be like man, we really had to have him I don't know if the math's right there, but you guys get what I mean, but for aji brown like he can get 18 19, you know at 7100 and that's such a big overperformance there Love aji brown. I love DaVante Smith. He's actually gonna have someone to take some attention away from him I'm on ross st. Brown. Uh, I was an early adopter. We both were last year. You gotta like that I might not have been you weren't I didn't want to I didn't want to I didn't want to say that but I'm on him this year though this week at least yeah Uh, both tight ends dallas goddard and tg hawkinson 5700. Those are reasonable salaries. Not the worst here Um to target some guys who can get some volume and then Think you mentioned dj shark as well, but there are a lot of ways to stack this game Uh And I mean, it's a great game to stack. Yeah monrosate brown at $6500. That's a low salary for a guy who might have the role I know that last year when he was feasting they didn't have hawkinson swift was banged up stuff like that, but I'd still expect him to be a Like $6500 accounts for that. So I think that makes a lot of sense Goddard 57 hawkinson also 57. I think that that Hard to pass up there Where does Hertz rank for you a quarterback at $8,000? Um, I don't have my my rankings really finalized, but he might be number two Okay Behind my homes. That's fair. I think that makes sense. I can't really push back on that too much I think that like This is just a good game in terms of salary. So whether or not I'm getting to like, you know Even if it's not a Hertz lineup, I think having many stacks here is very attractive Uh, you touched on shark. I do think he's worth expanding on very briefly. Um $5300 we again want high a dot wide receivers and games where we expect their offense to be efficient and Who could be more efficient than Jared golf? Nobody. Um, so shark at 53 at home in a dome Slight underdogs, I think this all adds up pretty well for shark. He is not a high exposure play Do not do that but in terms of game stacks run backs with Hertz if I'm not going with st. Brown Goddard, uh, sorry, uh, hawkinson or swift I want shark in that mix at least so I think that's where I said on on him. Um, it's just being an option and a guy I want to get to a 53 within these game stacks Any mile sanders for you or are we avoiding that? I thought about it. I mean, he's a huge touchdown regression candidate, which is the case But it's you know, sometimes it's not as simple as saying this guy has to score more frequently like I don't think so If he if he were lower salary than $6,500 like if he were in the ceh range at 58 I might be in But again, I just I want to put a massive emphasis here on catching passes and I don't expect him to be A huge contributor there, especially with aj brown in town now. Like that's one less route for him getting targets. So I'm not probably not going to get there. I might be a little bit lower on swift than you are at 76 It's just because like other guys. I love erin jones. I love saco and barkley um It's not an anti swift thing Because he had a very good role before we got like if you look back to last year Before his injury, let me full pull things up here Before his injury 13.7 carries 6.7 targets per game 98.1 Total yards per game. That's really good. That's a really good role. So Nothing against him just I I think that I like other guys a little tiny baby a bit more But he does fit the kind I want with a lot of uh past catching chops there Again, no jerry golf. Let's move now into the trend section four week number one again Largely overall process basis week But you did a full piece up on number fire a very good piece that I enjoyed reading is it as it progressed about pivoting from the chalk in tournaments and I think it's a very worthwhile discussion here. So what do you find when you look into the data about pivoting off the chalk in tournaments Yes, that piece is called uh dealing fantasy football should be always pivot from popular plays and tournaments You can just google it. Um, it's an easy way to find it But basically I wanted to answer the question that we talk about a lot Everyone talks about whenever they're talking about, you know daily fantasy football breaking down as latest it should be pivot from the chalk particular chalk plays and That's never really going to be like a binary answer. Um It's just not but I also wanted to see what happens historically and honestly it was really Thought provoking to define what a pivot might be What's the chalk? Is it just the most popular play? Is it guys who hit a certain threshold are pivots who are also chalky themselves pivots technically but You can read that whole thing up on a number fire But I want to at least give the takeaways here because this is going to drive a lot of my process um for this year Uh since 2017 is as far back as I looked um for these numbers But at quarterback the quarterbacks don't really get too popular. Um a 15 roster rate is what I considered chalky Very few guys. I think 23 pastors total actually passed a surpass the 20 roster rate in the sunday million That's very very low People like to differentiate a quarterback makes it very easy for us to play Well, we deem the best process place and that's why I try not to overthink it at quarterback um, you know that said we collectively Are good at identifying quarterback success chalky stud quarterbacks had an eruption game So at least 25 points half the time despite the roster rate of sub 20 percent The massive gap there. Um, so guys that we're talking about a lot Kyler uh, jealan herds mahomes herbert won't be popular But we don't have to worry about popularity so much at quarterback Because the process the way to use score points is based on volume quarterbacks have the most bankable volume So for me not really going to care too much about roster rate ever at quarterback Uh for running back. We're also really good. Um overall at identifying good chalk because again it's more process driven volume driven than than the past catching positions, but Stud chalk is great and we should really be open to pivoting to non chalky studs Maybe Derek Henry this week um, even though, you know Henry I never seemed to get right in terms of his popularity, but he did last year He's the name that comes to comes to mind. Um Non chalky mid-tier plays which for me ended up being 7,000 to 8400 guys like swift jones, uh for this week um Who are often afterthought so if we can find that, you know, if we find names there that people are overlooking But also have good projections are in the consideration set But maybe are the third or fourth guy in that tier, you know, maybe people are low on james connor The the the process kind of likes those guys again. This is kind of hard to explain through a podcast But that's why i'm trying to get just the takeaways. I really advise looking at the at least the end of that piece Uh really good, uh graphic fair to kind of identify the differences in terms of sunday Sunday million roster rate and things like eruption rate At wide receiver. This is the place. This is one of the places really to pivot. Um, stud chalk Is really good. We're we're we're typically good at finding stud chalks or someone like davante adams If he's chalky Justin jefferson if he's chalky like we know that the volume should be there for these guys That's why cooper cup peak michael thomas. These guys are really interesting um from a dfs standpoint on fando, which is a half ppr site, but Overall wide receiver chalk across all salary tiers under performs in terms of eruption rate Versus sunday million roster rates. So for example mid-tier chalky receivers. So between the seven thousand and eight thousand range They are rostered on average at like a 31 clip again. I'm looking only at Super chalky place here. So that's obvious But they erupt to get to 18 points just 20 percent of the time So that's a very easy way to differentiate and the pivot it Pivoting at wide receiver is honestly pretty easy to do this week. Um all weeks, honestly We get really point chase you when it comes to receivers when guys score points their salaries go up We continue to chase that when guys underperform their salaries tend to go down and then we're like this guy's not doing anything We should probably be very open to buying low on those names and then at tight end You already mentioned this but you know pivoting to to Studs who are just kind of forgotten about kind of seems like the key process By a point that I that I kind of came up with here in the in the research and Also, whenever we get a value tight end They kind of hit at a baseline rate, but don't necessarily hit a ceiling very often and you really have to think through What a 50 $100 tight end? Who might have a ceiling of 11 points does for you if you are not using 51 intentionally to sub tweeter of smith How rude no because I mean we're not really talking about 4500 range Um, but if you're watching those like brevin george or mo alley cox, which curious like so like if you Yeah, let's say like mo alley cox. There's reasons to like him He's kind of a streamer and season long lees you play him. He gets a touchdown 40 yards Although maybe like 11 fandal points or whatever If you're not using that savings to roster specifically high vol like high upside plays and you're trying to balance things out more That's really not a very good Tournament build. Uh, it's more of a cash game build and those are very different Yeah, um, so that's kind of what I what I thought again, it's it's hard to explain this but overall I don't really I mean I kind of don't care about popularity quarterback Care about a very little At running back and I'm going to get a little bit de gaffey when it comes to receivers and tight ends this year Just the heads up to anyone listening So I think that basically part of what you were saying what the tight ends was when you're using a value tight end You're betting against the stud tight ends on the slate because their upside is so good. Is that the correct way to interpret that? Yeah, so this week, you know, you want to play irv smith in a lineup. You're going to like what it does Sorry if I use moe out I'm getting on at the stud tight end by using your okay moe out of cox said he's what 4800 um Okay, let's say You're you want to build around or you're you're building a lineup and you have 4800 left for a tight end And you can you plug them and you're going to feel really good, but you're saying that Travis calc he's not getting to you know 18 20 mark andrews isn't going to put up 18 or 20 darren waller. Maybe not like 16 to 18 you're going to say these guys all Sort of tank. It's not as simple as that But when it does happen if it's pretty close to being as simple as that honestly like I think that's pretty fair It is very hard to overcome that the value tight ends are most viable when Kelsey's on an island game or mark andrews is on a buy week, you know That's when you should be more enticed by the lower salary guys One thing that I found based on going through stuff from last year was that I want to actively try to be spending up a tight end more this year than I have in the past and Being more accepting of mid-range running backs lower-soured running backs We tend to be pretty good at finding those as long as they have a path to a ceiling so I'd agree that as well I think that that is the fact that it's backed up by your research makes me feel better about that as well Let's move into my first trim talk with perfect lineups because I did want to go through some more holistic stuff here Discuss process I'm going to run through some key takeaways From perfect lineups on fan to a last year and see what circumstances Bread upside the biggest thing to emphasize is past catching at running back 44 running backs made a perfect lineup on fan to a last year Only 10 of them 10 out of 44 had zero or one catches That's compared to 13 running backs who had six or more receptions There are more backs who had six or more receptions than those who had zero or one 29.5 percent almost 30 percent had six plus receptions. That's absurd On average players in perfect lineups had 135 yards in scrimmage If you can get there from rushing alone like dara kenry like nick chubb sometimes can awesome sick good play It's just a lot easier to get there when you have two routes to getting 235 or so yards if I am using a rush only running back I want a path of 120 yards and two touchdowns dara kenry can get you there. He can Jonathan taylor can get you there. He definitely can But the pool of guys is smaller and I want to be be clear about that Second thing quarterbacks that are slight underdogs like kyler should be a slight underdog Blow up a lot last year a six out of 18 quarterbacks in perfect lineups were underdogs of less than five points That is 33 and on the whole That's compared to 25 of all quarterbacks were slight dogs So actually more than the consensus there But only 10 of popular quarterbacks on fandal in the sunday million were underdogs at all at all spreads That being the top top three and rostrate each week. So if you see a quarterback Who is a slight underdog? You know, they're unlikely to be popular and they have a path to a very big game I think that is super actionable Finally games with low totals are hideous, especially a wide receiver last year 49.3 of all games that is total of 45 and a half or lower that 49.3 percent produced Just 33.9 of receivers in perfect lineups So 66 percent of receivers came from games than the above average total Those receivers and super low total games were also Very unlikely to produce when they were popular So it ties into what brandon said you should pivot a wide receiver And that's especially true if it is a wide receiver in a game with a low total So again, the takeaways here for me were Prioritized past catching it running back to spite fandal being a half ppr site try to find quarterbacks who may be slightly under rostered because they are slight underdogs aka kyler and Pivot at wide receiver if the total is low and you need to have a really good situation for a receiver in a low total game To be a good play for dfs brand any pushback from you on that any final takeaways any thoughts on that? No, I think it all makes a ton of sense to uh anecdotally and One thing that that just jumps out more and more as we talk and it just gets solidified in the process Is looking at receiving for running backs even though it's not a full ppr site It matters and we'll touch on that in my next trend as well All right, well, let's move on exactly to that trend and talk about The running backs the stud running backs on this slate because we got to decide we can't use everyone Which is a bummer but you're gonna break down in their workload. Uh, so when you dug into that, what did you see with those stud backs? Yeah, I mean for me this we have four studs on this plate just in terms of salary to keep it simple With austin eckler at 94 christian mccaffrey 95 derrick henry 97 johnathan taylor 10 2 of course Some like alvin kamara daven cook also studs, but for the sake of keeping this a little bit more brief I wanted to talk about their workloads why it matters and why we shouldn't just be chasing Value at running back because it's very tempting to do in week one whenever guys are under salaried for the roles That they're actually expected to have For week one, but jonathan taylor again a salary of 10 200 this week The culture seven and a half point road favorites against the texans His props on vandal sportsbook are pretty wild over 99.5 rushing yards is minus 114 He is minus 240 to score, which is about 71 likely Um, it's weird to think but he actually didn't he started slow last year in terms of his his role He didn't break a 60 snap rate until week six after that he averaged 21 carries Uh, 22 carries if I round up 5.3 red zone carries, which was 87 percent of this of the team's red zone carries his red zone workload was historical I also wrote an article specifically on him in the off season just honestly like Nearly unmatched red zone workload last year 2.9 targets per game, which is definitely not bad Over 137 yards per game and 27.4 adjusted opportunities per game. What is that? That is your carries plus double your targets. It's a stat that jim Coined a phrase that jim coined you coined that we reword it. I can't say the word adjusted I don't think we ever found a A solution to I don't know. We'll figure it out. We'll wait at all Not adjusted opportunities I don't know but it's you know opportunities is carries plus targets. Um, we call them mvp's if we want Uh The s didn't last very long you know while we're in this game a name like damien pierce is rising up the the redraft Board he went I think in round four of a home a home league I had last night It's wild but he's plus 135 to score which is about 43 percent He's a rushing prop of 48 and a half yards I know that there's an astronomical difference in their salary, but that's a kind of Production gap we're looking at whenever you take savings And at running back compared to these studs Derek Henry, I am really drawn into more and more especially if I find out that he's not going to be popular Um, or prohibitively popular this week. And again, I don't really care too much about popularity at running back Before his injury he played eight games 27.4 carries per game 117 rushing yards per game massive massive red zone share two and a half targets per game, which is good for him That's 32.4 adjusted opportunities He's minus 170 to score. He's actually plus 350 to square twice, which is 22 percent, which is kind of High, um, gotta love to see that. Um christian mccaffrey though Is the name I get to and I say all right The total is 41 and a half You don't love that but one and a half point home favorite You kind of do one there's just kind of a misnomer that you want your running backs to be super big favorites a more Beneficial game script can be a tighter game script for running backs And that's what we get here despite the low total And despite that low total he's minus 130 to score because of his market shares That's still pretty good But he also can pay huff without scoring because his workload Phenomenal in four games last year when he actually played half the snaps 33.5 adjusted opportunities per game 60 percent of the red zone rushing share 25 percent of the red zone target share Over 150 yards per game Scrimmage yards and then austin echler again the fourth stud here good game 9400 very very loved by the fantasy football community I'm a little bit lower on on echler He averaged about a 65 percent snap rate last year and in games where he had at least half the snaps 13 carries but 6.1 targets per game for 20 25 adjusted opportunities per game almost 100 scrimmage yards per game in those Of note a big over performer in the touchdown column that led to About 19.9 fandal points per game, but expected based on my model about 16 So now that's a lot to keep straight, but here's the thing Adjusted opportunities matter workload matters for running backs the r-squared last year In terms of per game adjusted opportunities in fandal points that are squared 0.91 for anyone who doesn't know what that means It's if you know adjusted opportunities You have a very you know a lot about fandal points and actually in terms of expected fandal points is 0.98 just just Basically complete overlap there, but if you look at those splits that are relevant And then we're cherry picking here that these these splits for these guys, but here's why this matters If you look at the full season and then apply those splits. I just laid out christian mccaffrey would lead At 33.5 darry canary would be at 32.4 nachy harris 29.1 Didn't do a whole lot with it. I know he had a ton of targets. He's also got a foot injury Keep that in mind for this week alvin camara though 28.8 I really like camara a kind of warming up to him jonathan taylor 27.4 Davencook 26.7 and then austin echler at a 25.3 So echler still top seven, but I don't necessarily think that he's Should be at 9400. Yeah So what i'm getting at is we know that these opportunities matter, but it drops off so quickly to the other guys Those are the only guys above 25 drops off there only handful guys are even above like 22 These are the studs. We know where fantasy points are coming from We really have to think long and hard about running back Each and every week. So for my question to you is How are you handling the top four and is anyone particularly out of that tier and is anyone particularly close who's not in that tier So out is echler Ranking them cmc one henry two Henry versus taylor is pretty tough, but I will go henry there. I like both a lot But to me comes down to yards because yards correlate to touchdowns pretty well So I feel like okay. I feel okay using that as a proxy, but mccaffrey and I went with Five games that they 40 snap share 142 yards henry before his injury 136.4 taylor last year 127.7 Echler 98.4 big drop off there. So i'm just gonna rank them based on that Taylor's red zone share was stupid 52 percent, uh, henry was 48 mccaffrey 47 So touchdowns would favor those guys, but I just want mccaffrey. So mccaffrey won henry two Jt three all those guys very worthy of salaries the guy Who I would shove into that that range is a guy you mentioned just once Very briefly in there. You're nodding your head Dalvin Yeah, yeah, yeah, good game. Yeah, it's a good game Last year in his full games 124.4 yards per game that is just below jonathan taylor Um red zone share 42.5 percent you could say hey, they're gonna run the ball less But the goal is to get targets. So that's a good thing for us So I actually think this is a positive shift for dalvin cook I think that if i'm looking for an under rostered stud I kind of think dal is that guy at 84. I will say that mccaffrey will not be as popular as he should I'm gonna try to jam him in as often as I can But I think that if I'm looking for like a pivot, I would say dalvin cook is that guy Yeah, I mentioned chimera. Um a warm run up to him I don't know if this is the week for it specifically because the game itself is not overly appealing But dalvin cook I would say is the the name below that tier that jumps out And I'm also lowest on eclair and highest on mccaffrey. This is the healthiest We're gonna get christian mccaffrey All season and christian mccaffrey when healthy is The number one player unparalleled unparalleled. That's what he is Okay, let's stick with the dalvin cook discussion and talk about that vikings packers game from my second trend. That's pace The one game with super high projected to offensive efficiency We did not touch on in the bookmaker section was packers at vikings And that's for me at least largely due to pace pace is simply How fast the game is uh fast gains contain more plays that means more chances for touchdowns more chance for fantasy points This one will likely be pretty slow now the vikings For their part may be faster this year because kevin o'Connell is the head coach versus mike zimmer He should throw the ball more and more passing typically Her does mean a faster pace because incompletions stop the clock completions move the ball in an efficient manner, so they may be fine, but the packers rank 31st in situation neutral pace last year according to football outsiders now No divante adams potential no alan lizard They'll probably be more run heavy than they were and that'll drag down the pace even a bit more So I like a lot of individual plays here dalvin cook is awesome erin jones awesome I want to get to justin jefferson erf smith as a value tight end with that pace question Lingering in my head and it kind of bones me out brand and i'm not going to lie it hurts me to my core So is this a game you will stack? Uh words rank on your list. What's your view of this game overall? Yeah, I mean this game is definitely fourth Uh, or at least fourth. I honestly have not looked too much at the other games Let me just pull up my projected offensive efficiency as quick just to present you with a potential fourth So we have cardinals chiefs Chargers raiders eagles lions all definitively above it. I agree with you there Next up in projected offensive efficiency on the main slate for me is Miami and new england i thought so so packers vikings firm fourth correct Yeah, but it's in its own tier. I would say below the top three and above the others Yeah, for sure We run into the issues for green bay with pace As much as I know how good erin rogers is as a quarterback. I don't like to like play quarterbacks if I don't Feel confident in a stack I don't like to guess wrong. Um, I don't know what the market shares are going to look like and frankly I don't have to guess. I'm not gonna play cousins. So there it's sort of a maybe a mini stack sort of thing But yeah, I am very open to One offs of dalvin cook and I would be open to Justin jefferson I just realistically don't think i'm gonna Spend up at receiver this week because of all of the stud running backs I have to pick from I think the one advantage jefferson has is that of the games I want to stack like Devante is kind of the only high salary receiver there You could kind of count keenan allen if you wanted to but i'm not super keen on keenan Um, sorry So like if I were to use a one-off high salary receiver, it would be jefferson I think that he's a really fun play this week eighty one hundred dollars. He actually isn't my player picks I'd like to get there. But like let's say I have a uh an eagles lions stack where I have a lot of salary to spend Kind of want to make sure I get some jefferson in those situations because He's insane and he could get a really good work workload this year Um, they should throw the ball more But I agree there are no quarterbacks in this game for me I'd like to avoid the packers receivers if I can even though there will be a volume available I think it's mostly jones dalvin erve and jefferson for me within this game Let's take a look at the weather for this week weather does matter I know people like get mad about it on twitter like You're thinking weather. Well, people don't think about it enough based on roster rates and high wind games and based on What happens perfect line-ups you see a lot fewer eruptions in games with high wind Speaking of wind, let's talk about that. Uh dolphins versus patriots game smidge. Hi there 11 miles per hour winds 11 mile per hour winds say that better Also 91 in the human which will not be fun for the players down there I think that game is not super attracted to begin with but would downgrade this image due to wind There slight chance of rain in chicago for the bears and 49ers. They should be okay Uh winds are reasonable at eight miles per hour, but check back on that one later Rain now has increased as the game goes along for the panthers and the browns highest chances of rain are at the end so Check back on the timeline of that I don't really care too much about rain unless it's a monsoon unless it comes with a high wind So we should be okay across the board there Let's dive in now to our positional plays for this week on fan duel brandon starting off with you at quarterback Who are you eyeing there this week? Patrick my homes It's very obvious But I also don't know if it's so obvious that at the salary of 8700 He's going to be again. We don't get quarterbacks. We're prohibitively popular very often I don't think that's going to happen for my homes at that salary. No, he's going to lose tyreek And I think that'll bump down sentiment as well But the salary from a home specifically very easy to offset with his past catchers aside from kelsey, but you could also potentially Go with a double stack or Go my home ceh and kelsey kind of balance things out there get access to I'm not saying every yard in that offense, but a good majority of them So point being you can offset that salary pretty easily with stacks Apply team total of 29 and a half in the game of the week Set as a Moderate road favorite think it should be back and forth enough where they're not really scaling things back Arizona did rank 30th and downfield yards per target allowed last year So when passes did go downfield against them, they weren't particularly good at that pretty volatile stat But still and I think there there should be some deep shots in this offense Even without tyreek hill, maybe teams bracket them a little bit less And you know, they got an mvp caliber wide receiver replacement who can do some work downfield Second love jalen hurts 8 000. I really checks the boxes of playing a game with a high total is a russian quarterback Um good game environment playing in in a dome Pretty peak checklist for a lot of upside But he's basically jalen hurts and it was given a g brown, which is like kind of wild to think about Um, he's still got davante smith dallas goddard. So he's got pass catchers You can you know do things and of course one of the things that separates quarterbacks one of the really only things that separates quarterbacks but I guess they're Efficiency wherever but you know the the real differentiator in fantasy football is rushing and if you can rush the ball It's a quarterback. It's pretty phenomenal 9.3 carries per game over 50 yards a game um, and he's got frankly A receiver and a g brown who could handle 12 plus targets if they throw enough for that but also take Five targets for 90 yards and a touchdown too because he's just phenomenal. So I think jalen hurts great play Might be a little bit popular, but again don't care about that at all this week So we said there are four quarterbacks like this week. You talked about two I'll talk about the other two right now and justin herbert and kyler murray herbert I mean he's facing vegas. Uh, the projection ranked 27th and passing efficiency by my numbers this year Chargers ranked second in projected passing offense Um, so actually if I look at like just overall projected offense efficiency this week for a standalone team Chargers are number one Uh, so i'm gonna go herbert as a guy. I like a lot for this week He runs a bit not as much as you'd like but high total tight spread herbert checks every box for me as does kyler murray Again, he's an underdog which means the roster rate here should be low I do like the cheese defense but Don't love it. Um, it's a fast-paced game kyler is healthy. He is missing deandre hopkins, but He struggled in part with touchdown variance after hopkins left last year I think that you give him an all season to plan for an absence here. You add in marquise brown to replace christian kirk I think this adds up pretty well. So murray. I understand the negative sentiment around this team But I want to get to kyler murray as a guy. I love for this week. Let's go to running back. Who do you like there? Yeah, both of our number ones are christian mccaffrey. Um, I feel good with that I want to make sure that I get some exposure to jonathan taylor and darry cannery I'm probably fine missing autoneckler. I hope I don't regret saying that but I think his workload is not As good as the other guys and he just over performed in the touchdown column drastically I already talked about christian mccaffrey's workload in that healthy sample, but It's not really an overstatement to say that when christian mccaffrey is healthy He is the best fantasy football asset that there is and he's always played in bad offenses So i'm not really concerned about the low total here. Um, I think I looked at this last year actually when when he was actually healthy and Didn't really show a whole lot of splits whenever the the total was higher low could be misremembering that but it's christian mccaffrey No, I remember that too. You're right best workload in football 9500 We could be looking at this is too low. Maybe he could be 10k in a few weeks if he you know Has the role that we think he does he could be 11k next week after he were up for 40 fandal points this week True. I'd still pass second love Was maybe gonna be I was maybe gonna pivot this to dalvin cook But i'm gonna stick with yandere swift at 76. I love that salary love this game implied team total is still 22 and a half In games last year where he played at least half the snaps 12 of them 24.8 adjusted opportunities per game 6.3 targets per game About 90 yards a game from scrimmage and last year It was basically yandere swift in terms of targets per game at running back aside from nagi harris Whenever he got boosted by that like 19 or 20 target game he had It was basic But like swift was the guy in terms of targets that adds up The average running back target is worth twice as many fandal points as the average running back carry This stuff matters Philly wasn't the greatest overall defense kind of middling not that concerned He had at least five targets in 10 different games last season. I love that and my third love sick one barkley 6800 I think that's a bit too low last year and You know 10 games where he played at least half the snaps 24 adjusted opportunities per game just the uh, just just shy of 80 scrimmage yards per game But it's projectable for receiving volume 4.4 targets per game last year had at least four and seven different games And I think that he could stack like running back running back stacks are not very popular But I think this is one that could work out with Derek Henry. They're decently common in perfect lineups though because like, you know You need guys who can bust off long runs and not many people do that more often than Derek Henry So I think that a running back running back stack works pretty well So I had both mccaffrey and sake one and mine as well mccaffrey Everything you mentioned is why I like him as far as sake one goes. I actually looked at a different split. I looked at The three games he played before his ankle injury when he was getting like an 80 snap rate because it sounds like he might Be there again this year in those three games 14 carries 5.3 targets per game 96.3 yards per game Which is basically eclers workload with 50 of the red zone work getting that for 6800 dollars I bet the giants when they were plus six and a half. I think they're pretty lively within this game I think that barkley makes a lot of sense and I am okay stacking him with Henry like you said I'm also okay with Tony as a Henry stack I'm not going to any of the receivers on the Tennessee side So if I were to use sake one it'd probably be with Henry or the standalone play, but I'm fine with that Other guy in my loves is Aaron Jones It is a slog of a game that stinks But I love the potential role here because I think they're going to use them in really fun ways As a pass catcher last year again in week eight with no divante 15 carries 11 targets 110 yards in scrimmage He'll probably lose goal line work to to AJ Dillon But the pass catching upside here is stupid So for 74 to dollars, I adore him and I want to get there for sure I do think the dalvin like you said is kind of a a word while a shout to but Aaron Jones just Really fun play if you want some like low salary backs. I am at least considering I mentioned Travis etn He's probably the one of the primary ones clad into its eleir being the other one at 58 I was actually going to ask whenever we were talking about ceh after we talked about etn I was going to give you the the etn or ceh Well ceh just inherently because I moved second that game So it's not like I prefer his role. I think just because I'll be stacking that game If you're building a cn's role is probably going to be better Yeah, oh, I would say that for sure But it so if you're building us maybe a single in single entry, you're going to see each Probably just because I'm more likely to stack that game Yeah And like with my approach to single entry is I just have like Three games that I stack within that to fill out a majority of the lineup like I've got one right now That is a chief stack Chiefs cardinal stack. It is a chargers Raider stack and then a one-off play in a game that I want to stack in the eagle. So You know I think I'll wind up being higher in ceh, but etn Is up there for me. I don't think I'll go below ceh like you mentioned Damian pierce I think he's going to lose passing game work to rex burkhed and they are I I bet them as well plus eight and a half. It's now seven and a half I think that they're like going to be interesting, but I can't get to pierce the 54 Any other thoughts on value backs for you? I just I understand the appeal But if i'm playing a value back, I am Really really trying to get or multiple. I'm really trying to get access to receivers who I think have Unmatched upside I'm not discounting davonti adams in week one Um, especially in this game. I know jesson jefferson can go off Tyree kill is a name that we didn't really discuss but He went from like dominating the patriots to getting kind of limited So I think that might transfer over a little bit just because I give bill bellichick credit for stuff like that. Um I don't know if it's the right play to load up on value backs I think he named the ones that are most appealing. I agree. Okay wide receiver. What is getting your attention there? So i'm actually not going above seven thousand for any of my loves not because they don't like any of those names But if i'm building around a high salary quarterback christian mccaffrey You know, just swift or like daft and cook It's really hard to make a core play out of someone up in that salary range, but i'm going to start with marquise brown um with a very nice salary of 6900 checks the box as a high adot receiver playing at home That's a gem combo that that you typically love high scoring game Critical marks for uh predictable wide receiver upside It's really not a long list a lot of home teams or underdogs. It feels like Um, not necessarily something I factor in too heavily in my process But I did notice that should get extended volume early in the season with with how this team's shaken out with obviously no No deandre hopkins, but zacher. It's not a hundred percent even if he does go And I think that he's the kind of player I know he's kind of player who can actually outperform That salary to the point that he smashes through value. So I love that for this week I also love davante smith for similar reasons He's someone who could surpass value heavily because his salary is so low at 6100 and because of the type of player He is with a high adot I mean wouldn't be surprised if he's you know top five in and air yards even on maybe like seven-ish targets Love this game indoors lions were last in yards per target allowed on downfield attempts They're 31st and pressure rate last year as well. I know things change but pro football focus ranked ranked their d line 26th and their secondary 25th So this is a very good matchup to exploit and my third love is going to be christian kirk at 5800 I know that we're breaking away from the high total narrative But it's not like low total games never produce Any sort of wide receiver upside? It's just less likely but with kirk here He should be featured He had a 40 percent Route per target rate target per route rate however, whatever would be Don't make me do math But that was fifth highest among All players with at least 20 routes in the preseason Highest among anyone who's relevant unless you count isiah likely Whoa, he should be the wider single is unlikely. How dare you? $4100, baby He should be the wide receiver one I think he's under salad for that role and so I can I can take the the game environment for the salary here I think he's a good player. Yeah, I think that easily it's interesting. I'm not sure if I'll get there But I get why you're there. I think your process is sound I'm just not sure if I'll get there myself. My first love at receiver is justin jefferson I I want to try to get here in the games where I save at running back Like by using someone like ceh because last year in games with adam feeling healthy Jefferson had 40 of the deep targets 28 in the red zone This team should be more past heavy this year. It's a very good secondary green bay very good secondary and that does matter, but It's justin jefferson, man I'm going to be going there when I can because he is very fun this year My second love is mike williams at $6600. It's a fun game to stack If you look at the full games with keenan allen last year Williams had 20% of the overall targets 40% deep and 23% in the red zone The raiders defense not one. I'm fearing as of right now I do like a monro sainte-brown in this range juju smith schuster dj more in one of the lower total games at 64. I think he could be interesting, especially if he's not going to get on any radars and Suppress the vomit in your mouth the adam feeling at 61 That's a little low little low for a guy with his role. I'll say that you know Little low. I will probably use him and probably regret it. But here we go My third love is marquez valdez scambling He could get a low target share because travis kelsey going to get a lot of work However, we did see mvs mvp earned some targets with the packers last year Most of those were downfield here in a target on 30% of his rods in the preseason He is a downfield thread. He is a high eight out wide receiver in a spot where you expect his team to be efficient I love him also in this range brendan iuk at 56. I mean on cadarius tony Again, not on the injury report on wednesday Slamming sandy walkins. Maybe randall cob, but I think to me it is mvs one iuk 2 Tony 3 is the primary guys to go to in this low low to mid 5000 range tight end Who stands out to you there? Obviously the three studs but in building around the guys who I've already mentioned that I love I need to get a little bit lower And a stud who's kind of a lower salad stud and maybe a little bit overlooked because of the game environment kyle pitts drake london's hurt kyle pitts Look, you can he could pay off without a touchdown with the volume you can get he can get downfield work In 12 games without calvin really last year 29 percent air yard share 10.5 or at a dot Red zone work can really only go up. He's got to score more touchdowns this year than he did last year I think that he can overperform that salary pretty easily and I also love tg hawkinson at 5700 It's a loaded slate at tight end. I mentioned the the fears of punting too much at tight end I don't think that this qualifies as a punt. Uh hawkinson has some juice Um You know, he's gonna play a lot of snaps run a lot of routes at seven targets per game last year 25 percent air yard share fourth best among all tight ends despite A pretty modest a dot of seven and a half yards tight end average being seven So I think that this makes a lot of sense fits a lot of game stacks but also is a middle ground between punting and You know trying to allocate You know $8,000 for kelsey or mark andrews Yeah, and I think that having your tight ends be part of a game stack is something you should look to do I think it was 48% of tight ends and perfect lineups last year were part of either a single team stack or a game stack So that you want them involved with other players on your team in some way So that's why hawkinson makes a lot of sense in that perspective. That's also why i'm on Darren waller nerf smith is my two loves this week waller People are probably going to avoid him because of the quote-unquote injury with divante being in town too But $7,000 and in the lead scoring environments last year again with no Adams a major caveat there, but a 24 target share 23% of the deep work and 28% in the red zone. That's awesome workload It will go down this year with with divante there, but I think that a waller Mike williams stack Something that I want to be on pretty heavily irf smith It's kind of a projection slash hope base thing because even back in 2020 when kaurudolph missed time Earth smith's target share was still just 14% but He had 25% of the deep work and 29% in the red zone. That was with jefferson. That was with felon That's not bad a more pass at the offense now. It's a pretty narrow target tree It is a projection based thing with her not like an actual like numbers based projection But like you're assuming an assumption based play But I think that's viable. I don't mind my cox and brevin jordan in that same game of 48, but I do like irf smith at 51 Hopefully he comes through we'll see how that one goes though. Let's finish up here with your favorite segment brandon defense Who are you looking towards there? Love talking defense my favorite things. So I got in To the industry. I love washington this week. I like the jaguars offense kind of overall this season But this one seems like a mismatch jim Washington at home They have pro football focus. Is this virginia brandon like uh, like five-year-old brandon. We're hearing here No, I was I was doing like the defense guy a bit like not not the defense like people who like defense or like You gotta dip in playing a role. Yeah, you gotta dip in this is my time to shine. That's kind of what I was going for I got you But yeah, washington second ranked defensive line by pro football focus jackson was offensive line. It's 26 Love to see that kind of mismatch there I'll probably say this numerous times throughout the season, but More than 60 of fantasy points for defenses come from just sacks and turnovers don't look at things really like points allowed Don't really try to project like touchdowns sacks turnovers bankable. Um, that's why we'll generally target Defenses and higher scoring games. This isn't one of them. But um, you know, I think washington's a good play One game that does have a bit of a higher total is the dolphins and the patriots I think both sides of the game released interesting in terms of defense I did go with the dolphins here because they are home favorites I bet the patriots plus three and a half so clearly don't buy into the three and a half point spread there But the dolphins they can generate a pass rush The patriots offense have lied had a lot of change over this year during the off season Obviously the personnel on offense the coaching staff had a lot of change too So the dolphins I would say are outside of the commanders the lowest salary team I want to use But I I'm okay looking at the commanders the Jags the chiefs the Browns the Bengals I know the chiefs are part of a game that I love but if I'm not using Kyler I'm okay using the chiefs at times as well. Um, so Defense is tough this week for sure given the number of teams we do like That's all we got here for week number one in our preview podcast brandon any final thoughts for the good people Before I send them off to fill out their lineups on fan dual for this week You know week one's always hard because we got to talk extra about trying to project workloads Anticipate certain things talk process. Frankly this week or this year at least talk a lot about injuries. So uh, it was a it was a long one, but I think it was uh, you know It's important uh to to really think about week one. Uh, think about these teams I know you mentioned this is not to undercut like the earth smithing, but Don't just play guys. You're assuming are going to be in big roles Like really think about the odds that maybe you have it wrong There probably are other options uh to pivot to That might be the smarter play. Of course it pays to to be ahead of the curve, but Very often you'll be guessing wrong and uh talent alone doesn't really drive usage. It's it's coaching an opportunity Yeah, and I value assumptions Just like you said you said the word probability I think you said the word probability Think about the probability that assumption is true like the the probability that earth smith has a 17 target on this vikings team 30 somewhere around there. So, you know, keep that in mind Whereas darin waller probably more likely to have a bigger role stuff like that So, uh, don't chase value just for value's sake. Make sure you're getting raw points in there Think long and hard about uh game stacks think hard about pivoting Like brandon said at a wider see for an tight end and weigh that into your decision-making process as you build your lineups We'll be back with you on monday for a recap podcast. That'll be live on the fandal youtube page 10 a.m. Eastern and then up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that So go subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Uh, check out our mo bdfs podcast pga Nascar ufc everything else all in the same feed And let's check out our betting podcast on the covering the spread podcast feed as well brandon If people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? i'm at gaduola 13 gd ula 13 and i am on twitter at jim sonnis Thank you all for tuning in and good luck to you with your nfl dfs lineups Enjoy the opening games night. Enjoy sunday. We'll talk to you once again on monday to wrap up Which should be a fun weekend awesome football. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire