 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill earnings season preview with me, Patrick Munnally. Today we're kicking off the Q1 earnings season looking at JP Morgan's reports. Before we jump into that report as always want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. Most pertinent to today's presentation is the fact that views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine. They are not indicative or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Okay, so JP Morgan's set to announce earnings Friday the 14th of April. They're going to announce before the open of New York trading. And we are looking for the market consensus is for an earnings per share estimate of $3.41. And that's based on a revenue figure of 36.17 billion. I would say there is a whisper number on the street that the EPS could come in as high as $3.44. JP Morgan is expected to deliver a year over year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports its results. The widely known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture but how the actual results compared to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near term stock performance. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has actually been revised lower 0.4% over the last 30 days to its current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. In terms of the broader banking picture, large bank stocks have underperformed sharply recently, especially since the regional bank crisis. They had lagged some even earlier in the quarter. Regional banks seem to be stabilizing with deposits up and borrowings down per the latest data. A litany of concerns is impacting the banking sector outlook for the economy of potential recession, impact of sustained higher inflation, some slowdown in consumer spending, deposit trends impact on credit creation and loan growth outlook for credit quality and impact of likely increased regulatory requirements and oversight. This is in addition to geopolitical uncertainty that hasn't changed near term from a fundamental standpoint, there are some key drivers. One, loan growth, it's likely to slow to deposits should hold up well this period, but inflows from small based on infros from smaller banks, but how they'll hold up in the next period is uncertain. Thirdly, net interest margins or NIM have Pete and net interest income is likely to start to slow down. It's likely better than expected trading revenues offset weak investment banking outlook and physically credit quality continuing to normalize, but still solid. And lastly, capital is a little better due to lower rates. However, the concerns are more geared to the medium to long term outlook. Our trading below long term averages both on a price to earnings ratio and excluding over the capital clouded by uncertainty related to numerous concerns. So let's take a look at some of the statistical trading patterns we can expect with respect to the JP Morgan stock JP Morgan shares have moved lower in the immediate aftermath of earnings. On average the stock has moved down 0.17% in the first day of trading after the company pause earnings based on the previous 12 earnings releases JP Morgan is more likely to trade lower one day after earnings for an average loss of 0.4% on average stock has moved 0.2% one week after earnings in terms of the analyst community and where they're forecasting the stock at the moment we're trading around the 128 level. The minimum expected price target for the stock over the next 12 months is 124 with the average at 150 and a max target up at 179. In terms of the analyst rating out of the 27 analysts giving an opinion on the stock over the last three months, we have 14 or recommending it as a strong buy three as a buy and 10 as a hold. In terms of the options market and price sentiment investor sentiment going into the company's earnings has 50% expecting an earnings beat that has been notable options activity with 3174 contracts trading at the 133 call, which is a bullish outlook Friday given the current price that's a bullish outlook and option order flow sentiment in general has been bullish. The predictive move post earnings has average about 2.5% in recent causes. The options market has overestimated JP Morgan stock earnings movements post earnings 83% of the time of the last 12 quarters. So we have a perspective on the analyst community the option sentiment. Let's take a look at the charts and see if we can identify any near term trading opportunities. So we can see here this as I'm recording this review on Thursday 13th of April. We're consolidating a triangle pattern here on the four hour timeframe was set to open in the pre market here a little bit higher than the close yesterday closed 12855 set to 12890. So given that bullish structure that we have in the options market, my inclination is to look to play this from the long side so I'd be looking for any move through 13050 to engage on the long side using a stop below the 128 level. The initial target is going to be a move up into that option zone of 133. We have an equality objective given the current swing structure with the 126 low, which will give us 13435. Now from there I would turn a little bit more cautious and certainly if I'm holding long positions, I'd be trading up stops there using for our candle closes as a trading point, because we are running into what I anticipate could be some resistance given the technical setup. And if certainly if we start to see sentiment shift, and if we see a broader shift in sentiment in the broader market in terms of the S&P 500, we could be looking technically at another leg to the downside here. And if we did stall out in around that 134 level, so we're looking for bearish reversal patterns and technical stage, I'd be looking for bearish reversal patterns on the daily timeframe as a confirmation here for this scenario. If we did get that, then we could be looking to reengage on the short side, we would have a downside equality objective leading to the 113 handle. So that's the technical picture as things stand at the moment. I'm bullish going into the earnings and I'm looking for a push up into that 134-135. From there I turn a little bit more cautious and certainly want to be locking in profits if we can achieve that target. As always traders, plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.