 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, Neatly here, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access to Trader dot com nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody is doing well. So let's take a quick, quick reminiscence, right? Quick little tour of history's past. So if you guys remember, it took us a lot of time to reclaim the 20 day moving average. And we finally reclaimed it on May 25th, right? And what happened next for the next two weeks, we started going sideways. And the whole theory is the longer a stock or an ETF in this case, or just the general market consolidates on a range, the higher probability it's going to go in that direction. And we waited, right? If you guys remember, we waited and waited and waited. Good news was brushed off, bad news is brushed off. So all news was literally brushed off and just we're waiting. We waited, we waited. And then all of a sudden the market finally broke, right? And we finally gave up the 20 day moving average. And what happened was for the next, you know, for the next two weeks or so, really aggressive sell, right? You guys remember that? As soon as we gave up that 20, really, really aggressive selling. And I'll tell you, I was definitely one of the ones who were sitting there on this consolidation. And I'm like, oh, you know, we're going to get as long as we go. We're going to go higher. We're going to go higher. We're going to go higher. And until we actually go higher is just an opinion. I've said this for many, many times. I'm wrong every day, whether it's on a trade, whether it's my thought process, directional bias, whatever the case may be. I'm going to be wrong, right? We're going to be wrong a lot. The most important part is put yourself in a situation that you're not painting in the corner that you stay wrong. And once the price action shifts and you know the big body of work, what is being represented in the market, then you can shift gears very, very quickly and make those necessary changes to kind of get yourself on the right side. So our last rally, right? And the Bulls did a really good job. And we started rallying. We reclaimed the 20-day moving average just the same way we reclaimed the 20-day moving average here. And yesterday we rested and, you know, and today we started to rest. And, you know, again, I'm definitely one of the people going into today's session saying, well, this is great. Well, even hell, I just recorded a video last night about it. Hey, hey, the market can't go straight up. We just put 7.5 percent gain on the cues last week. How could we possibly go higher without resting? It was literally the last night's video. And I said to myself, okay, that's fine. Let's see what happens here. Let's wait for these channels to get to expand. But this is the difference, right? This is the difference between being wrong and being, you know, being materialistically wrong. You know, we were sitting there. We had some longs. We'll talk about the pivots in a second. We had some longs we were watching. We had a couple of shorts we were watching. But the most important part was we were watching, right? You don't, you know, you don't start, you don't start pushing a confirmation that's not there. You just don't start guessing when something's going to happen. You wait for confirmation. That's the most important part. And that's one of the things I've been kind of illustrating and, you know, trying to beat down into people's brains over the last X amount of years that until it physically happens, until the price action physically happens, we're just waiting, right? We're just absolutely waiting. And I'll tell you, if you polled 100 people last night and you said, look, you know, we're now day two under a day two over the 20 day moving average after a 7.5% run, where do you think we're going to go? Right. And the whole point is I think 99 out of 100 people going to turn around and say, well, yeah, it looks great, right? We're resting up there 7.5% move. We're probably going to go higher. And again, this is why this is the greatest reality show that's not on television. And when you take a step back, right, you take a step back and you realize what we've been talking about for a long, long time. All this is happening. All this is happening. All this is happening, right? Every single rally, what's the common denominator, right? Let me give you, let me give you, anybody who's been watching this video should comment below. What's the common, you know, what's the common denominator, right? Everything is happening below the 50 day moving average. And that's the bottom line. And it really, really does remind you very, very quickly two things are happening. Either number one, the market is just not going to tap you on the shoulder and say, oh, that's it. Rally is over. We're back to selling. And the second thing the market is going to remind you is this could come in any single time. And that's exactly what we saw today. So last week, what we saw very, very quickly with a 7.5% run today was taking out by 3% in the Nasdaq, just by itself. But the most important part of what is happening where it potentially could happen is what you're looking for individual stocks. It shouldn't have been that easy to give up that 20 day moving average, right? There should have been much more of a fight. And we saw this morning, even when they back tested back to that 290 level. And again, if you watch last night's video, I said as long as we're staying up above the 290 level, right? That wasn't, you're not supposed, it's not something, the market's not supposed to trick you. It's telling you where the fight is, right? It's telling you where the battleground stayed. And I said this last night's video, as long as we stay above 290, you got to give the bulls the benefit of it out. And there's a flip side to that. Well, what happens if we start losing that 290? Yada, yada, yada, minus 3% on the day. And if you go through charts tonight, it's just not, well, the index has got hurt, the stocks is still fine. Look at Amazon, right? Look at happening at Amazon. Amazon had this really, really big run. And today, not only did it lose the 20-day moving average, it lost the 5-day moving average, which is a short-term sentiment, and it lost the 10-day moving average that's called the birth of the trade. And now we started seeing some pretty deep out-of-the-money calls come in for September and October. We saw some 90s. We saw some 85 puts coming in. It's pretty big, you know, it's a pretty big deal, considering this is the first day down. This has happened way before these moving average were being tested. If you look at the bottom of the channel here, Amazon, again, this 100 area is not for tomorrow. But eventually, once this $100 area gets tested and held several times, then yeah, you're going to start seeing a big decline. Tesla, again, that we were watching for upside-bias. How can you not, right? Again, how can you not until it starts losing the 20-day moving average? Snap of the finger, it lost the 20-day moving average, lost the 5-day moving average, and closed right on the 10-day moving average, right? So we went from really, really aggressive upside-bias potential to uh-oh, here we go again. And you start looking, you know, stock after stock after stock, Nvidia starting to break down. Here's your bottom channel here. You got AMD, right? You got AMD as well. Look how close this thing is to starting its next lockdown. And again, if you really, really think about it, the semiconductor's never rallied, right? There was the one sore spot in the NASDAQ 100 last week despite putting up a 7.5% gain. So we're kind of back to where we started before last week. And the most important part right now is, again, if you're an investor, again, it's very, very tough to be long this market. Once we get above the 50-day moving average in all aspects, that's a whole different story. But this is a trader's market right now. It's been a trader's market right now. You try to have at least the amount of exposure overnight, whether you're long or short-bias. But the most important part is so much violence. And that's the best way of saying it. There's so much general violence in that direction, one way or another, that you're going to have a lot of opportunity and you don't need to subject yourself to overnight exposure because these stocks have tremendous amount of range. So going into tomorrow, again, in a perfect world, what I would like to see, okay? Hell, I would like to see a gap up, not because I want to see the stock strong, because, again, what happens in a bear market and bear scenario after an engulfing candle? If there's usually a gap up the next day, stocks are going to gap right into their 60-minute supply. And what happens in supply? They're probably going to get rejected. So there is a perfect world tomorrow. Yes, we're definitely... We want a gap up tomorrow because if these things do get rejected off their supplies and start taking down bottom channels, of course they're going to get hit. That's the whole cycle of a bear market. So that's kind of the deal. That's kind of my frame of mind going into tomorrow. If you look at the indexes, you're kind of going to represent the same thing. Here's the spies, right? If the spies start losing the five-day moving average, again, the theory stocks trade from supply to supply and then from demand to demand. So if you get any close tomorrow below 377 on the spies, that's a problem. That's a big, big problem because look how much airspace you have back to the bottom. If you look at the queues, right? You have the queues the same thing. You have the queues, they lost the five-day moving average. If the queues lose tomorrow 282 on the close, guys, look how much room you have back to the downside. So we're definitely set up. I think that's the best way of saying it. We're absolutely set up. And if you look at the pivots today, right? If you look at the pivots today, we had some longs. We had some shorts. But the common denominator of today was when the stocks stalled out on the long side, you knew it was kind of a wrap. You didn't knew it then. You didn't know it then, but you slowly started to see it. And the first clue was the snow, right? Snow got an upgrade today. Gapped up five bucks. But as soon as this thing started putting in opening range lows and started putting in and started going red on the day, you say to yourself, wait a minute, if a stock that just got upgraded can't rally, that was sitting at the top of the range ready to resume, uh-oh, what's going to happen for the rest of the day? And you start seeing it. And then slowly but surely, one by one, we went from long pivots to short pivots and yada, yada, yada. Here we are today. So NIO 2280, if it builds below, can flush. NIO, again, we talked about the EV names yesterday. Pre-market, you had LI come out with, LI come out with some sort of offering. I think it was at the money offering. NIO all day. You had short-term $20 puts being traded, $17 puts being traded. Watch this thing tomorrow. This thing starts building below 22 bucks. You could start, you might start getting a pretty good back test, but 2280, if it builds below, went down to 80, went down to 22. Tesla was so sloppy this morning. Tesla 742 rejected three times. If it builds below, excuse me, if it builds, can stretch. So Tesla goes from 742 to 750, but it was so darn thin, man. Impossible to get any size. Very, very tough trade. Literally made a cup of coffee on this thing. Baidu 156 needs to build. Baidu gets above the 56, stalls out. That's the theme, right? That was exactly the theme of the day, and turns over. Snow never gave a second entry. Bowling, congratulations for you guys who took bowling. I didn't trade any bowling today. 142 needs to build. Bowling had a nice pop here at the open here. Here was the 142, right? It took out the 142. Look at the move here. Right to 147, which is the upper bowling demand. Very, very impressive move. Great job, guys. Great job on that one. I just didn't trade that one coin. If you guys remember yesterday, the original pivot was 59, if it builds below, it can flush, right? Traded down to 55. 55 today was confirmation. 55 needs to confirm for more downside. Here was coin. Right? Things started changing very, very quickly. So, here was the 59, excuse me, here was the 59, here was the 55, and coin traded all the way down to 50. I honestly think if this thing starts losing 50, you're going to start seeing all these cryptos start coming in as well. There's a shot. It goes back down to the bottom range here. There's more downside on coin as well. Amazon, again, you can see here, I started putting up upward bias pivots. Either they stole out there or never got up there. Obviously, Amazon never got up there. Bowling, big move on bowing. The video got absolutely slammed. I still like it lower for tomorrow. 166.20, if it builds below, can flush. Now, keep this in mind. When I was putting in, and we were talking about this in the webinar today, when I was putting in these downside pivots by no stretch of the imagination that I think we were going to lose the 20-day moving average. By no shot. Anybody who says, well, we saw this, there's no shot, right? We were consolidating above the 20-day moving average. We weren't consolidating to go lower. We were consolidating to go higher. It just worked out that way that we went lower. So, you know, we were doing initially some of these moves for cash flow, right? 50 cents, a dollar, $2, blah, blah, blah. And then all of a sudden the earth opened up and that earth opened up with Tesla. We'll talk about that in a second. But here is the 66.20 on NVIDIA. NVIDIA traded all the way down to 59. This thing starts losing 59, guys. This is a shot that gets down to 47. The big one definitely was Tesla. It started off on cash flow, but then it got really, really aggressive. And why it got aggressive was because it lost the 5-day moving average. That is the short-term sentiment. The first move, it got to 7.22. It bounced off the 5-day, and then it lost 7.22. If you go through my regular Twitter feed, you say there's a shot it gets to 7.08, which it got there. And then we talk about there's a puncher shot it got to 7.95. It closed at 7.97. Now we are watching the downside of this pocket, man. If this thing starts losing the downside here, I mean, everybody has eyes, right? You can see where the next measure potential is. So, again, we're looking for, hoping for a little bit of a gap up tomorrow in the market. We'd love to see these stocks get rejected into supply. And if they start turning over and start confirming today's channels, we could get some pretty decent premium. So, guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless. Stay safe. Again, you don't need to be the smartest guy in the room. Just don't be the dumbest. Guys, God bless. I'll see you all tomorrow.