 We'll welcome everybody so I was saying we've got a start of a new quarter start of a new month We're going to kind of go top to bottom on Bitcoin Get into some of our analytics and our outlook and forecast through the end of the year and Then we will you know kind of start to dial into with expectations for October expectations for the week Expectations for today or what's left of today and then give some insights Into the microstructure of you know, what has been occurring today in Bitcoin So this will be a little different because we're going to focus and you know provide some Real intel on You know our structure and our forecast for Bitcoin for Q4 Now before I get into it. I want to you know go through a disclaimer You know everything that we're going over today is for educational purposes We're not recommending any buys and sells We are recommending that if you are trading you're using risk capital And by doing so it's going to give you the best chance to succeed Because it's going to reduce your the emotional impact of your trading decisions So I've been involved in the markets for trading for over 35 years You know, I started out on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange really into Technical analysis and then as the market started to evolve and became more quantitative We became quantitative along with the market. So we're completely quantitative currently and have been so since the the late 90s you know really after the After the crash of 87 things, you know really started to change and then when high frequency trading started out we We really decided to Shift gears along with that, you know everybody else and so Focus everything on fact-based solutions And so it's in the analytics that you're gonna See today, you know really been developed, you know over the years But they're based on market truths and sound core principles Which have been around since the existence of the market. So we've just we're bringing those to light and identifying them and in the crypto space I got involved with Bitcoin in 2013 and then with ether in 2016 big believer in the space big believer in web 3.0 and It's just so so efficient. We're still early still a lot to do But it's kind of an inevitable direction. It's just a better way to do things So I'm one of the founding partners of Dharma capital Which is a registered investment fund and Dharma capital trading which is a proprietary trading group and We and some of the analytics that you're gonna see here today are tools that we provide traders with big believer in empowering traders through Realization, you know and data-driven models. So combining intuitive function you're with facts, you Know, I think the one way that discretionary traders can beat Algorithms is by their intuitiveness and if they have the right foundation of facts, you know, they can make better decisions and they can Teach themselves how to get in flow and stay in flow You know when you're just you're not thinking you're just doing and when you have the right fact foundation it makes a lot easier to do that and And that's that's what we offer and some of the analytics that you're gonna see in the methods that you're gonna I'm gonna go over today. I did you know analyzing Bitcoin are based off of fact-based trading You know objective data instead of subjective emotions or opinions, you know, technical analysis has its place But it's the very end of the line in importance and what the main reason is just too subjective and And the next reason is that it's it's lagging. It doesn't it's it doesn't allow you to anticipate So sticking on order flow what's happening in a moment and then bigger time frame structures And so we're gonna show some of our tools but I'm gonna get into some Analyzing the Analyzing Bitcoin right now. We're gonna get do something a little different and just kind of just dive right into the market See where we're at for the fourth quarter So what you're looking at here is a 240 minute chart. I use Open-high-low close charts. I feel like they do a much better job of identifying structure. I Think candlestick charts take away some of that structure. That's important. So I like to just really see a clear picture and These charts provide that And so I'm gonna be talking about different types of structure in the market and so everyone's familiar with price structure and You know, this is pretty wily price structure, right? So what's you know, what's price structure, you know lower move lows lower move highs identifying momentum in the market You know, this is price action and has this price structure So a market that's trendings making higher move highs higher move lows and When we stop making higher move lows It tells us that this trend is no longer true And we could see a either a shift of sideways action where the market is not trending or we could see a shift in trend The next, you know, and that's those are just the facts markets making higher move highs higher move lows Is what it is. That's that's a truth You know based on what time frame does it fall through does it not fall through it? We don't know But that's just a fact The other type of structure that we're looking at right now that I've plotted on the chart here is time frame structure and so What we're looking at is the Hive we're looking at a quarter, you know, we're identifying we've got the start of the quarter So that is the primary structure At the you know the very start of the period and then as we move through the quarter We're gonna we you know, we'll start to focus more on what the monthly structure is Definitely at the you know first couple weeks of the month and then as we move towards the end of the month We should kind of shift and focus in more on what's happening on the weekly structure as in a level of importance and Then we use the daily is kind of its own anomaly where it's it's you know It's it's on point every day But how that daily structure works within the bigger time frame is what gives you some real really interesting insight add the Quarterly close here So what I've drawn out and this is just you know simple facts fact is you know This is the previous quarter high previous quarter low Here's the previous quarter close and we have the previous quarter midpoint And so this midpoint is going to act like a classic pivot point between the previous quarter high and low So we're you know it really is defining what's happening here in the moment, and so you know This is a good momentum level We base above here the expectations. We're gonna route, you know make a play and challenge the previous quarter high. It's just normal You know below the midpoint we're gonna rotate down to the the test the lower quarter low and Here we have the close so you kind of have this dynamic band here between You know net change for the quarter You know net change for the month You know we're negative on the month positive on the month But when you're looking at time frame structure, it's an awareness thing So if you're long the market you need to be aware that okay? I'm below the quarterly midpoint, but I am above the the the close So I still have a net positive change for the month if I'm long the market and I'm trading below the previous quarter Low there's you need to be aware that there's a little bit of an issue if you're long the market and you're trading in the markets Train below the previous quarter low or Whatever time frame previous day low It's an issue and you need to be aware of that and you need and you need to think about what kind of size you have on Versus if I'm long the market and I'm above the previous quarter high What what's more likely to occur is that we're gonna you know markets gonna search for a new structure And so these are this is that when we go back to the beginning of what's fact-based trading is about this is what it's about Focusing on facts. These are truths Now with crypto it's you know the fuzzy part about crypto is you have a lot of different exchanges What is the real high? What is the real low and that is an issue? So that this is what we're looking at right now is the perpetual ambiance And so that's what we have for data and that's what we're based on our structure off of here So this thing I want to go into with you and before you know kind of the next level of structure We're gonna talk about is market structure and market structure is not support resistance It's defining this the context of the state So what the mark, you know what it you know what instead of being a supporter resistance number It's going to give us some insight. So this is what we call our sentiment bias level I'm gonna pull up there with me one second here Just had this loaded up. I can't find it So I do a quick overview of market structure Just so you're you know, we're all on the same page here and you get the most out of this this insight so if we're looking at a You know market structure is going to you know Identify boundaries of where the mark where there will be momentum shifts in the market You know for if we're the market it's going to identify this market context is going to change at these price points and Based on the qualifiers of this of this market structure that's going to give you additional insight So instead of looking at a market with no structure all of a sudden we get some definition to what might occur And so this structure allows us to anticipate opportunity on its most basic level Looking at any, you know qualifier You know, we'll get into the colors in a minute You know, if we just these levels act as a a ladder or a staircase So as the market looks to you know kind of climb the steps and as it violates, you know, if it stabilizes above a step the expectation It's going to go to the next run If it can stabilize this step, it's going to go to the next level and just kind of stair stepping and then if the market Starts to stabilize, but then it can't hold this breach. It's it gives us a signal It's going to take a step back to the next level and if it can't stabilize here It's going to be only looking for a step to the next level And so this is the this is a true a market truth and what we're just doing is bringing it to light So this is the underlying fabric of the market It's it's it's it's almost as similar as you know looking at the time frame structure. This is the market structure And so what we've done is we've qualified some of these points and we've defined some specific metrics that support them So we get there's a couple different metrics that that are available to us reward metrics and risk metrics and on the reward metrics What the structure tells us is what you know, basically what the market's paying out You know what the market moves in specific segments we call them average price map distance APMD and the market likes to move in half full and time and in two times Segments so in this example, I've just you know, here's a half segment move from this level to that level Here's a two segment move From this level down to this level And here's a full segment move And so what the you know, and this is the distance between these levels Basically, and so if you're in an opportunity You need to understand, you know, the segment moves the markets trading because that's what it wants to give you That's what it's paying out And so this is a tool that you use to align your profit objectives that what's this trade worth We're gonna go and the next thing is okay Well, if I'm to capture that opportunity to capture a half segment full segment to take move what you know We're gonna look at some risk metrics. And so These are the boundaries that surround the level. So the levels are defined This is the level. But then we have a couple metrics. We have what we call our variance and our alert distance And so this helps to identify you where the optimal entry areas are You know, if we if we're always looking to enter at a figure, we're gonna miss a lot of good opportunities Because we're gonna and but we're gonna catch all the all the ones that where the market breaks through it And so the variance is really the Optimal area of entry you could almost even think of it as like a slippage area, you know This is kind of the like the meridians in your body around a, you know a Inflection point it's really, you know, it's identifying the boundaries The alert distance is is the area of signal acceptance. So basically You want to trade where the market's in alignment and the market is in alignment at market structure points You know, this is where all the HFTs live and this is where the big funds come in Because the big funds come in where the alignment changes where momentum shifts changes where the context of the market changes That's where the funds are gonna want to participate. That's where the big money is So this helps to define your risk and then, you know, and also it helps to validate if this level is true You know, if the market holds structure and it holds the level, you know If I have to risk this and I'm looking for a full APMD That's a good risk reward. That's what I'm wet. So we're looking to do and so we you know And and just with that, you know, you have a powerful tool and then, you know to provide additional clarity we're gonna we identify the uniqueness of some of these price points and There's there's really Three main price points One is what we call a sentiment bias. It's an over-under number You know, most most traders definitely most fund traders have a point for every time frame that they have they need to make a decision From that point the markets positive positive above it's negative below it It is what it is the closer you get to that point during that time frame the more energy is going to be focused on it The farther the market current prices away from that point There's less energy So this is it's a very important concept that you know when you're at this inflection point Your risk is the lowest for the biggest opportunity And so is a size management tool whenever there's an opportunity to trade at sentiment you need to trade bigger You need to force yourself to trade bigger you have to have you know You have to Align your size management with when opportunities are more likely to occur Or when risk is the best and so that's that that's the main price point Inflection point for every trade time frame The next thing is the what we call our critical range So and and we define the our level in green so it jumps out at you So in this situation is the market is you know below this price were negative So what our understanding is is that this rally is corrective? So then if we get sell signals in front of this figure Those are more valuable than buy signals because buy signals are going to run into the sentiment For if the market we don't want to we're not hoping the market's going to transition through it We're respecting the structure if it's if the market takes out that structure and goes through the alert distance Now of sudden we've got a sentiment shift and now we're about we're buying breaks and we're rolling we're rolling positive But it's gives this gives us insight that this is a corrective rally and so and sell signals are more valuable and then the expectation of Where can it go? Well, this is the biggest number on the on the for the time frame. We would anticipate a 2 a PMD move and So the and and that's you know, basically That's what the this example shows it shows a 2 a PMD move and they got and then and this also is identifying what we call our critical range And defined by the red and the blue here and so this is the major you could for better lack of a better term support structure This is our market structure low point and this are market structure high points This is going to act as natural resistance and natural support You know All this stuff in the middle is really for position management So the main structure of the market is here and here and the fact that sentiments above the market It kind of creates a whole bit, you know more of a zone here for the upper structure and then the Yellow line is what we call our directional and that's really just a classic pivot point the markets above this price point It's leaning for a challenge to the up upside pivot up below this price point It's leaning for a challenge to the downside pivot to give you kind of a kind of it can be a rotational number two and Then we have some minor levels Within this structure to just to give us some guidance on position management. They validate This signal here validates the market wants to continue to go down Validates continues to want to go down And it also is is a validation of a break in momentum So in this situation the market stair-stepping it can't hold it Here and this was a validation to set up going nowhere, but it's also the end of the trade period So that's a that's a you know kind of a quick overview I can I'll drop this into the discord later So you guys can go through and read through it, but just as a general sense. We're identifying market structure Market likes to stair-step and climb up and down the stairs of the market structure And we have metrics that help to define what the opportunity is for a move From one level to the next what the market's paying out and what do we have to risk to do that and Then further clarity on qualifiers for our work And which are color coded Defining what the sentiment is and defining what the the main structure of the market is critical range all right, so Back to the analysis. So we're looking at the Bitcoin quarterly right now. And so we're looking at Bitcoin quarterly sentiment. So what do we know for a fact? We know fact is The market is trading At the previous quarter midpoint. So we know this is a momentum level Just like the directional lean in positive above lean in negative below Well, now we have the quarterly sentiment is coming in here at twenty seven thousand six hundred five Okay, so we've got this is in direct right in the smack dab in the middle of this band of the previous Quarter close and midpoint. So this is a natural Momentum area. So there's a lot of energy here and It's the start of the quarter so Another study that I'm not going to get it to today it called price discovery is Looking at behavior of, you know, settlement and opening time frames basically And so we are in the opening time phase of this Q4 So the market is going to have certain Behaviors during opening phases and settlement phases You know just you know on a basis on the daily basis It's it's pretty straightforward where, you know, everyone's marked a market They've got to settle up their margin at the end of the period basically And so you have this last hour last four hours of trading for crypto that You know the market there's a lot of indecisive action There's a lot of you know things, you know The market price will drive one direction Just based on price because you have someone that has to get out because they're over leveraged And they don't have the dough to keep their position. So they got to close it out And so that you know a lot of times you'll get these big negate You'll have a big all-day negative move and then at the end the last end of the day They just they rally straight up It's and it's relentless And they take back a lot of lost gains and then as soon as the market closed and rolls into the next period during the Opening phase the market just turns around goes the other way goes back into the negative trend That's just kind of a classic situation. So we're currently in the opening phase and this can last a week or two and so Basic if we're looking at this thing on a quarterly basis, you know, we need to be patient and we're gonna continue to dive And into things, you know in more into more the microstructure, but for right now, it's kind of high-level Bitcoin. What's happening? Okay, so now so what's it so what's happening is with the markets wound up Last quarter and this sentiment bias really has no effect on this quarter But it is interesting to see the behavior And so, you know, this is what I'm talking about in the opening phase the market's trying to make a decision and then it and then it then it starts to break down after a couple weeks and Now and it gives better clarity to where we can go and then this kind of stabilization and a downside move So now let's add the critical range because that's the core structure of the market This is an integration tool that we have so if you're interested in picking this up at the end of The presentation will do some links you can go to dharma capital trading dot dharma capital dot trade and And register and and get a trial on it as well So you can see how you know last quarter the market, you know, you know, the sentiment's a key level the markets You know, this can happen a lot, especially when sentiment's balanced like it is this quarter Balanced meaning that it's within the it's at the midpoint of the critical range. It's not always the case And if we microstructure in here, we can see that This previous, you know on q2 The sentiment was at the upside pivot and here we have the directional So what this tell so this is giving us some guidance and some insights So last quarter, what do we do? We had, you know, basically the core it took the whole quarter to achieve a fully PMD And it really came off this one event The volatility has been difficult this year for sure But for the quarter again, you know, this is telling us what's the market trading? It's trading in half in full segment full segment moves So a full segment move from this area. So this this digestive area that we're in currently And you know, basically if we start trading above The you know, 28,100 which is the Quarter midpoint or we start trading below You know 27,000 basically And we and we hold and we start and we hold structure either positive structure or negative structure after we get a breach So we get a failure here and we hold the negative structure Or we we we continue to hold work this positive structure here And then we're and we're and we're working positive structure above here What's the expectation expectation this market's going to go up to 32,800 By the end of the year, let's just say 32,000. What would that be? That would be a retest of Q3 high And if we and if we break out of this zone to the downside, what's the expectation if we hold negative price structure We we could see and move down to 22,000 Which would take out the previous, you know q3 loan I'm going to add the Minor structure here So these are potential stopping points For any move. So what'll happen? Sometimes is You know as when the market Is in this We call it a risk regime balanced It's a sign that the market is coiling up and getting ready for a bigger move And sometimes when they coil up they'll rotate within these interior lines. So instead Not having the ability to make it all the way up to the critical range top or critical range bottom They'll they'll bottom out here around 24 1,800 or they'll top out here at 30,000 basically So that's something to consider. So this is what I talked about before these are more validation points Where if the market is going to stall out, it's going to stall out here If it's going to stall out, it's going to stall here and if we could break structure here Which and this is what we like to look for is alignment with These facts. So the fact is quarter third quarter loves here fact is that's the negative variance of this figure And so, you know, if you're an options trader you can use these As your strike points. So these are kind of currently your extremes here typically If the market is going to have a major trend move, you know If you're going to do this on a big scale level and just going to continue to go It'll do it from sentiment It'll do it from the directional area and it'll just grow And so if you see if we see a move that just starts to scale this way and it's not breaking structure That's a tell that you need to hedge those deltas They you know this You know this this these linear that's how linear moves start same on the downside But right now the market hasn't given us that decision So I kind of just taking a step backwards here What I've done is I've added the monthly structure So you can see how It's you know, you trade, you know Markets are have a lot of depth. There's a lot of you know, there's a lot of different facts that are going on And just in focusing on the facts as your foundation is is what's key You get in this this you know, this real straightforward fact-based insight Um It really starts to become an eye-opener when you overlay it on each other. So right now What are we going to do right now? Well, how can we take advantage of an opportunity? How can we you know kind of gear up? We know what the bigger picture is. We know that this market. I'll put the quarterly critical range back on I'm going to remove this past Period And we're just going to focus on what's happening in the current period So what I've done here is I've added the previous monthly high previous monthly low previous monthly midpoint and previous monthly close And so here we can see that you know, we have an additional bias here Right at the 27600 area, which is it, you know, which is basically the the quarterly figure sentiment bias Because it's it's it's a previous monthly high point And so what happened is, you know, right off the get go And let's throw the monthly uh sentiment bias on here Which is below the market So basis the monthly it opened up right at It's you know, the closing price, which you know, it typically does and immediately traded outside the This metric boundary, which is the sign of strength And it stable it market couldn't trade back below the close And then we had this positive surge and we had a breakout of the of the range Big surge and then they couldn't hold it and we pulled back to it. So this is this is what's happening currently right now Is a major You know signal in the market It's not only the previous monthly high But it's also the quarterly sentiment bias So the you know, the immediate move here and the microstructure is going to you know, continue to help us identify And get a lead into this any kind of potential breakout for more of a substantial move is happening now I'm going to keep rolling through this and if you know, people have any questions, you know, feel free to uh To post them or you can you know email me, uh, you know directly So now if we take a look at the you know since since they you know Since we're at the start of the quarter the The the the quarterly Is going to dominate For the long-term foundation And so we can you know, basically start to let's you know, what i'm going to do next is i'm going to add in here the What's happening on the week And so, you know, just as you have the you know opening In settlement phase times that have provide specific context. So do the days of the week You know, you know, you think about it, you know every you know every week's it's is a is a unique You know factor and you know for crypto What settlement is saturdays? And sundays are open And then we start the price discovery basically On mondays, which is pretty classic because that's when everyone you know Most people were taken off the weekend and they're coming on mondays and and that's when the markets are making decision And so we're on wednesday right now So what's what's been happening? On the weekly basis. So what i'm going to do now Is i'm going to Go into a shorter time frame. I add the weekly sentiment bias So let's for now. Let's just and it's interesting how you can see how much energy is is wound up here in bitcoin You know, we've had you know, we've had a long year and you know, things are Really keyed up for you know October here So let's remove the This stuff and just let's just take a look at Uh, what's what's happened this week? You know being wednesday and again, you can see the you know the um You know time frame structure wise and i don't want to get this too cluttered but Basically, this is the uh The high point For last week Which is you know, so we're in you know, very interesting spot at the moment Where the market is trying to maintain a trade above the monthly high and and the weekly high And basis the weekly we started out the week in a similar situation As the monthly where we open up and we price qualify above the metric boundary here Of sentiment so sentiment, you know again buy breaks above sell rallies below This is the main point for the week and this starts out on sunday and it lasts through the week So let's put the critical range on and so the You know as you you can use the shorter time frame structure You know to give better insight to the bigger picture You know this this breach of this midpoint is not that you know is not a lot on the quarterly basis, right? And so this will happen a lot where you'll have the weekly structure will come in And so this gives you insight that if you know if you're only focused in dialed in on this quarterly previous quarter midpoint And you're executing buy signals here you're buying right into weekly structure So it's you know, this would what's nice when what happens is when you know If this was shifted a little lower and you had that real good alignment there And then then you would anticipate more of a pop but in this situation your expectation is that it's going to be challenged And we're going to get into the microstructure here on these moves into here and you know But just looking at price structure You know you've got the market you have a positive signal here Market tells us it wants to stair step higher it wants to go We're looking it's trading in you know one apmd segments And it gives us a one apmd move And then we're following price action within market structure and we see the market's making higher lows higher highs You know after the market makes this high here this becomes our first structure break and this is our second structure break So right off of this figure the market Breaks the first structure, which is which is a signal that this aggressive pause momentum is going to slow down But it also is a breach of this metric boundary And then when we get a retest here And we get a failure here It's just you know, this is a tell that there's you know, this this rally's in trouble Again, this is just this is facts. It's not you know, it's not a lot of subjectivity here. It's just this is what it is And so at this point it validates it and then we get a pullback to our previous quarter midpoint And now now we're looking at this negative structure and what's the expectation the market's going to come back down here It's going to steer step down to this level But it's you know, it's also coming into previous week high Previous month high and into the markets, you know trying to make a decision here. Are we going to stay can I stabilize here? So let's put on the the interior critical range And this is Again, this is the same guidelines, you know Now we're climbing the ladder down. We're climbing the stairs down And this gives us clarity to You know, you know market structures, you know really trumps all all of this stuff And and you can see why Because it defines, you know, where momentum is is going to shift What this is this is to anticipate this is the previous And and now we have what you know, what's more likely to occur And so For this week, what's clear is that 27,645 Is the focal point currently for bitcoin for an upside any kind of positive turn Any kind of resumption of this because we are you know, we are above this sentiment and if we add back on the monthly and we add on the Quarterly I'm going to take off the metric boundaries just so it It's a little cleaner since we're talking about the Weekly structure right now All of a sudden we have some different clarity that okay now this whole energy area shifted to you know, basically The quarterly, you know, and we knew this already, but this is now we're reaffirming and we get some better clarity with what's happening And at the moment the expectation is As long as we're below, you know, 27,600 The market wants to go down to 27,000 it wants, you know, come back you come back and we're you know, potentially retest this area if not Come down to the downside pivot Let me just brighten this up a little bit Come down to this 25,441 dp on the weekly basis So, you know, what's the market doing sentiment's balanced on basis the weekly It tested the critical top of the critical range If it's if it starts to stair step lower You know the market didn't scale so typically when the markets wound up and again, there's As you go deeper and deeper down the hole and you get more insight to You know what the structure bias is and what the behavior is when the market's in a certain structure bias One of the tells of a market that's in that's balanced And is potentially a breakout and a breakout starts out like this, but it just keeps going And when it doesn't keep going it tells you something it's not going to keep going And it's going to it tells us we're either going sideways or we're going to test the range of the critical range extremes So we tested it here If we stare keep stair stepping lower and hold this negative structure, where can we go we can go here So this gives you know, again, if you're talking about options trading we're identifying these these two different strikes Because if the market is going to consolidate it's going to consolidate within these strikes All right, so let's just keep keep pushing through here. What's happening now? You know, how can we how can we take advantage of this? How can we jump on this train? This is a dangerous trade though, right because we have we still have this A lot of you know sentiment below the market here. So even if we do test into it You could have a knee jerk reaction, you know, but absolutely above 27,600 There's going to be something to do on the upside. So let's take off the uh, Let's put on the uh daily critical range and let's go into a shorter time frame all right It's got the microstructure because we're starting to get into you're starting to get into that So for you know, we're taking a look at the What's happening on a daily basis? So let's For the moment I have myself there. Let me go back here just to keep things clean and let's remove the All the weekly stuff and let's just focus here on the daily What's happening there? So daily we had some rotational action, let's put the minor structure up here So this is what I was talking about before, you know, sentiment for the daily is down here at the dp So it's not balanced, but we still are having this what we I call a critical range rotational theme Where the market stabilizes off the lower interior critical range And this is a tell that you know if we get a play to the cr plus if this you know, we could see a You know this this area hold and we could see this kind of rotation, which is what we're having here on bitcoin Let me add our other tool Keep ripping through this Again, we're just you know getting clarity. So we have you know, we have our big awareness You know, we know that we're above the monthly high. We know this is the quarterly high You know that that gave us insight here, you know, this gives us insight here and where we're trading in the in the moment This is our playbook application So all these tiles are market color grid. It helps to identify quickly different types of context, you know, if the market is in a Bear trend acceleration context is it in a Bear trend correction context. Are we in in bitcoin? We're in a bull trend context And so this you know, this application, you know, one defines the context. What are the nuances of it? What are the you know attributes of momentum volatility bias? What is it, you know, what is how does the market perform? optimally and and what are the tells when the when the when the market is transitioning to a new state And that's what the structure is telling us that we went over with the sentiment bias and the critical range They are basically this is what market structure is And the r-level defines the structure bias because that's sentiment And so for bitcoin what this is identifying is that the market's in a you know, this this playbook is based on the daily time frame That the market is in a bull trend state. So it's not a positive signal. It's just a definition of fact That the market is making higher move lows higher move highs And then the structure identifies. Okay, where's that peak where we could see an extension And again, this is not based off of Price structure. It's based off of quantitative market structure So it will it won't necessarily match up with You know just moderating price structure to you know, these levels And then you and the same thing on the downside it's identifying. Where is that breaking point that makes this statement not true So basically that's you know, 27,064 dollars is the You know lower trough of for the current trading session that would make this statement Not true if we'd started trading below there and it doesn't mean that we're we would expect the market to Uh immediately reverse course and more likely what's likely to occur in a bull trend state Is the market is going to produce a neutral shift rather than a negative transition So just you know, this whole thing is about aligning your expectations right to anticipate opportunity And to manage your risk and then here we're identifying the rewards and the risk Metrics so we know that bitcoin is is paying out, you know, 363 for a segment move That's what our expectation is for reward and any trade at the very minimum. We're looking for 181 And we know that we can risk, you know between 50 And maybe 100 to get that so risking 50 to make 181 makes sense. It even makes more sense at 363 And we even if you extend this out to 100 bucks, it's still three to one And so that so what happens is since we're in this specific market context state and we have this this Structure and this structure bias then then The application identifies the these are the offense. This is the the best opportunity So here's the optimal strategy. What do we want to do? We want to fade momentum by fade our fade momentum off 27064 That's the best thing and what what's another opportunity buy a breakout above 27,040 to five Why because it's telling us the market momentum should just continue and go And whaterson tells for a potential transition to a different to a different state Well, we get a breakout above the up above 27,791 and we can't hold it and we produce what we call a reversal And that potentially has to be that potentially the top for you know a transition And where's the transition validated below the R level below 27,064 So what happened today is the market tried to make a play for the downside pivot and it couldn't right buy breaks Above the R cell rallies below the R so we have a break to buy but it couldn't get there and then the market Starts to transition and we get a signal that the market is going to you know, the bulletin may engage And it doesn't it gives us a half a PMD move And it stalls out Market couldn't make it up to the upside pivot The market break structure here This is a sign of digestion So typically what as a trader what you're always looking for is the market performing the expectation Well, it's it's against the trend it's working trying to work positive structure It breaks structure here it validates a breaking structure here. So this is telling us this optimal theme is not true So now the market's either in a hedge theme or it's in a non-eventing And currently we're in more of a non-eventing which is basically sideways You know if the market trades below the downside pivot that would confirm valid that they were in a big transition But the market can break all the way down to here and bounce still or a rally all the way up to here and fade But there are expectations if we do get a surge a big rally today or you know a rally up to 27,791 It's not going to fall through Based on what the price action within market structure And if we do get a breakdown to 2706 for in the next whatever 10 30 minutes The expectations through the rest of the session we're going to bounce it's not going to fall through And this is all going to change in the next trade period But that's what the market's telling us based on price structure Price action within market structure Okay, so now we now we have a you know, we've got the the big general Picture of what's happening What's now what's happening in the moment? And so we can look at that we can take a look at the microstructure of the market so Let's dial this in a little tighter On the bar period so we can Compare notes here So this this action is this action Okay, so we have this move And we're what we're going to go over here right now in the microstructure Uh is just this uh Volume footprint here, you know, this is our volume delta We've got our you know the the green represents More buyers and we're the over the sellers in this situation. So it gives us insight to Who's the aggressor the the buyers the aggressor or the sellers the aggressor? and You know to keep I like to keep things super simple and uh, you know I love the VWAP and I love when the VWAP comes into alignment with structure So at this point here the directional It is also a breach of the VWAP So as the market in the market comes up here gets a little bit above it and start it's rotating and then we We get this a shift that takes us above the VWAP, which is positive And then we start to get some volume dots with some buyers Here And we already have you know, we have insight that you know the market tried to press it to the downside Couldn't fall through Then we we break we break the structure of this negative momentum price structure We come here we stabilize or hold above the variance and now we're trading back above the directional What's more likely to occur? It's more likely we're going to make a play for the top metric band at the very least If not the monthly previous monthly high point to see what they do there And then we get these You know the buyers get real aggressive here So that this is a tool that I use to you know, jump on the train As I call it, you know the market we you have an expectation What's the expert, you know, which is I'm going to at least get it, you know, potentially a half APMD move up to the CR plus again, we're in it. We're in a Rotational theme right now. We're in more of a non-event So it's absolutely not that of interesting in an environment to trade in Versus if we are in I'd say a positive signal event that we could really press something for a big opportunity So it's it's more of a It's more dangerous and the risk reward isn't the best at the moment now Uh, that's also a tell that tells you hey, maybe tomorrow or tonight is going to be the time to for this market to make a move You know with crypto it never stops. So who knows? Um, but at the moment it's telling us, um, you know to kind of be be patient and align your expectations But you had this, um buyers being real aggressive here And they're being aggressive in front of the figure So they're buying it right into the figure. So I like I like looking at situations like this to potentially fade And then you have a retest here with less aggressiveness This is also typically a classic tell Especially if you're happening at a major inflection point So these are what we call minor So these are the lowest size trade opportunities This is the next size trade opportunity is at a critical range extreme And the biggest opportunities are wherever they are level is and today that's at the downside pivot So that's you know, the biggest size was you know buying a break here and we didn't get it You know the next big size opportunity would be an exhaustive reversal here And then this is all just interior trading so This type of action here is somewhat exhaustive, you know, you get this flurry of activity With the buyers the aggressor and then you start to see a little you get this Less of a flurry plus you start to see the sellers being more aggressive. So this is kind of teeing up this exhaustion here And if we start to get a liquidity shift where the sellers start to build up here And we start trading back above black below the previous monthly high Which is defined here That would that that would be your tell that things could rotate down. It's and so that would be uh And the expectation is the market's going to come down to the downside pivot So, you know, basically I just call this jumping on the you're jumping on the momentum here So if we're looking for a momentum trade, although we actually aren't expecting too much follow through But we'll let the market tell us what it wants to do right now We have this flurry set up this sideways digest. How long is that going to last? This needs to start to build up and we need to base above here So we need to start basing above this level And if we do that and we and we start to see some dots like this happening here That can be a big surge that can be a surge that can have some potential Again, we're you know, we're at the microstructure of the bigger picture So this is our playbook. This is the price map overlay Which is on you know integrated into different charting and into the uh the book map heat map So it's all about having that market state awareness To get clarity You know when we're talking about fact focus absolutely you start with the fundamentals what's happening And then on your you know and the decision matrix It's you know, we're identifying, you know, what those state characteristics Characteristics are what the structure of that is and what strategy themes are in play You know, if the market is performing me to the state and holding structure Then we look to participate in the optimal theme If it's breaking structure And it's it's not performing to the You know characteristics of the state that we're going to look to participate in the head strategy thing And if it's not holding structure in either direction, then it's kind of a no trade event You know, we're a little bit, you know, the market's leaning that way right now. It's potentially Uh, you know What we do know is that it's not bull trend So that's the one thing that we know about bitcoin at the moment We do know that it's not a bull trend because it's not it hasn't been able to hold the trend today So that's telling us that we're either going to shift into a hedge theme Or we're getting an exhaustive signal at the up or we're just going to go sideways Or potentially we're going to fail from the dp So right now it's more of a no trade sideways Digestive and maybe we're waiting for tomorrow So anytime that you have any doubts Or you're not sure or you feel a motion building up I'm getting nervous and my stop's going to get hit Always go back to your fact focus dial it back Where are we, you know, what time frame are you trading in? What's the bigger time frame to Are we above the high previous date weeks high previous are we below the previous weeks low? Are we above or below the midpoint or above or below the previous close? You're just using that context alone will give you some clarity to you know You know give you the confidence to stick with what you have or give you the awareness that hey, I need to make some adjustments I'm fading, you know, my position is fading Momentum or what's more likely to happen And then you act to get the facts and then act So to get the facts We can help you Come to dharma capital dot trade We'll get you set up with our applications We have more tutorials to go through more nuances or just keep it simple and trade the levels It's a that's a great way to just start level to level climb the stairs Let the reward metrics give you insight to what the market's paying out As well as what you need to risk to get that And feel free to email me directly at js at dharma capital dot trade And we'll and I'll help you get set up myself And if you do register with us we have a complimentary personality profile That helps to identify your core strengths And it's it's really the foundation of you know You know building your Trading path and if you are and if you're a professional trader and you haven't done it It's going to give you better insight to what works and what doesn't work for you And also we'll give you some insight to how to you know, what parts of of our analytics will help you And how to use it Well, thank you for your time today I look forward to speaking with you guys Enjoy your day