 Well, with the past week's movement, I thought it was a perfect time to jump back in and do a live stream. And here we are. What is going on, ladies and gentlemen? Thank you guys for tuning in. There's been a lot going on in the crypto market with the Bitcoin ETFs. We saw Bitcoin hit a new high that we hadn't seen in about two or three years of $49,000. And then after that, things have kind of plummeted. We've been pulling back. We're down about, we hit 21.5% with a, we had the high of, let's see, on the 12th. So 11 days ago, well actually on the 11th. So 12 days ago, we had a high of $49,000. And as of today, we have hit a low of $38,500. So currently we're sitting at about $39,000. And we will see how things go from here. So today in today's live stream, we're gonna be going over what might be causing Bitcoin to drop. So we have a few different, there's a few different possible reasons why this has been happening. And then we will also be talking, we'll also take a look at the chart and see technically what has, what could be causing Bitcoin to drop. And then we'll be looking for what's, what could be the bottom of this move? Where's the bottom? Where are we gonna get that bounce? And we're gonna talk about building those million dollar positions. Remember, we did a video recently, about two weeks ago, where we spoke about building that position for the long term for that bull run, where we could potentially build up a trade of about a million dollars, right? But the best time to build that trade was during a big pullback of over 15 to 20%, which is currently what we're getting right now. So we're gonna cover all of that in today's live stream. So make sure you guys tune in to the end. So without further ado, let me go ahead and pause the music and then we'll jump over to the monitor. Pause the music there. Oh, I think I can just lower it a bit. I don't know if you guys can still hear it or not, but as long as it's not overpowering my voice and we should be fine. So let's go ahead and jump over to the chart here. So as you guys can see, the main thing here is we have this massive, massive fall off. And if we just kind of zoom out a bit, let's go to the weekly. And let's actually change, because I have a lot of things drawn here on this chart, a lot of things that we've been tracking. So let's change to a cleaner chart. And this right here is basically as clean as you can get. Let's go to the monthly. And right off the bat, you can see that this monthly chart, it becomes a little obvious, right? So we had the big move up, then we had a big resistance up here, which is exactly where the rejection has occurred. And currently we have a bearish pin bar. So bearish pin bar is a bearish signal, of course. It basically indicates a reversal, trend reversal in the future basically, right? So in this case, it would be in the immediate future because we still have the Bitcoin halving coming up and we'll talk a little bit more about that, what that means and what we can expect with the Bitcoin halving coming up, what we can expect with prices, right? So currently you can see we're sitting about $39,100. And we've hit that resistance. We're now getting close to this Fibonacci support. So this Fibonacci support is sitting right around $37,000. And you can see that this level has been very, very big in the past. You can see it's been big here. It acted as both support and resistance. And then once again here, acted as big support. And then when we lost it, you can see these massive, massive moves to the downside when we lost that support there. So because of that, I'm expecting this to be once again a big, big level here for Bitcoin, big level of support overall. And we had a breakout above it, right? So this right here was a breakout over the last two months. We broke above it. And now what it looks like we're gonna be doing is retesting that breakout and confirming that as a support before a continuation higher. So that's why I'm saying even though we're down 21%, even though it's been such a big pullback, this is a healthy correction overall for Bitcoin's price. Because what we can expect here, like we can't expect price to just continue up. That that's unrealistic. But what we can expect here is the natural movement of prices, which is up, down, then higher, down, then higher, et cetera, right? So that's much more natural. Now there are a few things, warning signs that pointed to this over the last few months. And we spoke a lot about this. So it's clear to see it on the daily here. So we'll look at it there. If we go, just get our trend line, and it's not difficult, right? We get a trend line, we're looking at the RSI. We draw the trend line on how the RSI has been acting. Then we look at price, get a trend line. And once again, do the same thing, right? Mark the price, what's the trend of the price here? And we can see very, very clear that basically since we topped out here, that was in October, RSI started to trend to the downside while price continued going up to the upside and setting new higher highs. You see, here we're setting new lower highs, or yeah, lower highs, and here we're setting higher highs. So when we have something like this, I see someone says my volume is very low. Let me know if my volume is low, guys. I don't wanna, I don't know if it's just his volume or if it's the overall volume is very low. So if I am, let me know in the chat right now so I can adjust it. I already adjusted it a little bit. But overall, as you guys can see, whenever the price is going up with the RSI, going down, remember the RSI is a momentum indicator. So if momentum is dropping while price is going up, then something is wrong, right? Something is off. And that usually, for the most part, indicates that we need either, that we need some sort of pullback. We need a correction, right? And that's, you know, the thing is, you can't guess when that correction is gonna be. If you would have seen this right here in October and then in November, when we first realized that we're getting this bearish divergence, if you would have sold here, right? This is, you would have sold at, let's say you sold at the high, the high would have been around $35,000. So if you sold around $35,000, you would have missed out on another $15,000. You know, because, and that's the thing, we can't really guess when these pullbacks, when these corrections are gonna happen. So this has been here on the charts for a while now, and we've spoken about it for a while. However, there's no way to know when the correction is actually gonna happen. And then of course, with the Bitcoin ETF rumors and all of that going on, it held up Bitcoin's price through any pullback. Any pullback was getting bought up right away. And you can see here just over and over and over anytime we pulled back, it got right back up. And eventually we topped out here once that the news came that the Bitcoin ETF were officially approved. We had this top out here and then the next day, basically we just tanked for about 7.7% and then consolidated a bit and then we have continued down. We lost the 50 EMA. So this is the EMA 50 day moving average. We lost that, that was a significant one here. As you can see when we were following it, we stayed on top of it. We're bouncing on it for a little bit and then we lost it. So the next big areas here overall technically is $38,000 because if we look back on history, $38,000 has been a previous big level there. And as you can see, $38,000 is also in line with this Fibonacci level that's here at $37,000. So I think that could potentially be around the range where we can potentially bottom out. Anywhere between $37,000 to $38,000. If we go as low as $37,000 and if we go back here to this chart, well actually let's stay on the other chart. It's just easier to see what I'm showing you guys. If we go back here, you can see 21%. If we go all the way back down to this Fibonacci level, that's about a 24% pullback. Now, earlier this week we spoke about, we did a small report on, we did it in our Discord, we posted it on Instagram and we also posted it on Twitter talking about how far this pullback could go. So what we did was we looked back historically on previous pullbacks, right? And here you can see, you can see the pullbacks here. And historically, this was the last year. So once this move up, once we bottomed out and started a new move up, we tracked every single pullback. And you can see this pullback here was 22.5%. This pullback was 20.23% and this pullback was 21.68%. And if you remember doing those pullbacks, everyone was calling for the end of the world, right? Here we dropped down as low as 19,569. Everyone was calling for 15,000. People were calling for $12,000, right? Those were the two of the big targets we continued to see, especially $12,000. And what happened after that, we had a massive bounce and we continued on our way up. Then we set a new high of 31,000 and pulled back all the way down to 24,000. Now if you think back during that time period, this was mid-2023, people were calling once again for a retest of 20,000 for a retest of 18,000. And again, we got these 15,000 and $12,000 targets once again. None of that happened, Bitcoin continued up. Then again, we had a new high, 31,000, 32,000, right? And then we pulled all the way back to a low of 24,920. Once again, when we were here, people were calling for a pullback to $20,000 saying that the CME gap, et cetera, et cetera, pulled back to 18,000. And of course, those targets at $12,000 were still being called out. Of course, Bitcoin bounced. So I tell you guys all that so that you realize when we're in the thick of it, it feels like it could be the end of the world. It feels like we could just continue to drop and drop and drop and there'll be, we won't go back up. But that's why I like to zoom out and look at the past. Now, I'm not saying that, you know, the biggest pullback we had last year was 22.5%. We're literally 1% off. I'm not saying that we're gonna go only to 22.5% because if we look back at the previous bull run, you know, last year alone was not enough data. So we wanted to get a little bit more data. And so we looked at the previous bull run and you'll see that during that previous bull run, we had very similar things. And the only thing we're not gonna look at is the pandemic because obviously that was a black swan event. So we're not gonna look at that, but here you can see we had a pullback 18%, pullback of 21%, 11%, 31%, 26%, right? So we had big pullbacks during that bull run. But if you average out all of these pullbacks during the bull run, the average pullback and during that bull run was 29, I'm sorry, was 21.9% was the average pullback. If we average out all the pullbacks last year in the entire year of 2023, the average pullback was 21.47%. So we're starting to see a trend, right? And of course in 20 and in the previous bull run, the biggest pullback was 31%, so that lets you know that that's a possibility, right? And the biggest pullback last year was 22.5%. So we're currently sitting at 21, if we said, okay, we're gonna go to 22, 22.5, that's around $38,000. If we spoke about 37,000 where that Fibonacci level is, that's about 24%, right, from the highs. And let's say that we went to the high, the 31% pullback like we saw during the previous bull run, something like this, that gives us a target of about $33,000. Now, I don't, I honestly, personally, I don't think we're gonna get a 31% pullback, but it is in the cards. It is in the probabilities, now although it might have the lowest amount of probability, it still is a probable scenario for the price here of Bitcoin. So that's something that we need to keep in mind. A 31% drop off is a possible scenario here. Now, another thing that we need to think about is the Bitcoin halving, right? So the Bitcoin halving is approaching and it's approaching quickly. Let me see here. Bitcoin halving countdown. So we're officially 83 days away from the Bitcoin halving. Now, the reason I bring this up is because historically speaking within 60 days of the Bitcoin halving, we have basically a pre-Bitcoin halving rally. So we're about 23 or three weeks away from that period where we get within that 60 day window, right? And that's what we're expecting at that point, Bitcoin to definitely bounce and begin to rally back up. Now, how high can it rally? I'm not sure. Maybe back to this $50,000 range. I think that's definitely a possibility. But first we're gonna have to survive these next three weeks. And I think if we're gonna get a further pullback, it's gonna be within these next three weeks. So something that could happen is we could see things consolidate here around $38, $39, $40,000. And then for the next three weeks or so. And then once we get within that 60 day period, then we could potentially start to see price get back above 40, 42, 45, and potentially all the way up to 50 again. So that's when I think we would really, we'll really see that next rally for Bitcoin until then. And so for the next 23 days, anything could happen basically. So we have to play very, very carefully here and as safe as possible because this is a probability. There's a few different probabilities, a 31% pullback, although it didn't happen at all last year. We didn't have these massive moves that we've had this quickly. So last year's moves, although we did have big moves, they weren't as fast, right? So they took more time to develop. You can see all this time for consolidation, all this time for consolidation, all this time for consolidation. Look how quickly this has been. There's been, after the big moves, there's been no consolidation. It's just continued up and continued up. So because of that, we could see a deeper pullback than what we saw last year, which its deepest pullback was 22.5%. But right now we're at 21.5%. And that was about the average during 2021 bull run and last year. Those were, that was about the average pullback. So I would love to see us just stay within this range, maybe consolidate and then start slowly moving up, hopefully bottoming out already here at 38,000. Because it is about the average of what we hit over the last year and what we hit in the 2020, 2021 bull run. So technically, from a technical aspect, that's basically how I'm looking at it, what I'm looking at and the levels that I'm watching, 37 or 38 being that main number. And then if we were to fall beyond that, 35,000 is also a support level. As you can see, it held up Bitcoin here. And then 33,000 really being that big level there to the downside, you can see at 33, we also have the 50 week moving average down here in that 32 to 33 range. So again, that's the lowest probability scenario, but it is a scenario to just kind of think about if you're needing to manage positions and things like that, depending on what happens. Now for a long-term, guys, for your long-term positions, there's nothing you have to do. I would instead, the only thing that I would do here on any long-term positions is buy more. That's it. Other than buying more, there's nothing to do here. For long-term positions. This is a perfect opportunity if you have missed out on any of this rally. This is the perfect opportunity now to add to your long-term portfolio, long-term positions for the next two years. You add here in the next year or two. Guys, this is guaranteed to go up. I'm expecting my conservative estimate is $100,000 for Bitcoin, $10,000 for Ethereum, you know, $250 for Solana, at least $200 for Avalanche, $5 for XRP, you know, $5 for Cardano. Like those are my, I feel like what are my conservative targets there? So if you guys have not added enough, if you don't feel like you have enough and you have some extra cash laying around that you're not doing anything with, this is a time to use it. This is a time to buy, right? So now that we looked at the chart, let's talk about some possibilities on what could be also apart from the technical analysis point of it, what else has been adding basically fuel to this fire? Now, one of the main things that has been happening here, and let me pull it up really quick. What was it? FTX. So let me pull up FTX real quick. So what happened with FTX? Let's pull this up here. So FTX has sold about $1 billion of grayscales Bitcoin ETF, which explains much of the outflow, right? So let's just kind of go over this article together so that you can understand it. So, let me see, let me go to where it actually starts talking. All right, so investors, and this has to do with grayscale Bitcoin trust, GBTC. So when the Bitcoin ETFs were approved, grayscales Bitcoin trust converted their fund into an ETF as well. And after that, investors sold more than $2 billion worth of GBTC since it was converted. So, and then the thing is that a large chunk of that was FTX's, from FTX's bankruptcy estate, dumping 22 million shares, which was worth about $1 billion. So that's where a lot of the outflow is going, is coming from right now. Now, because, and as you can see here in theory, now that FTX is done selling its substantial holdings, the selling pressure could ease since a bankruptcy estate liquidating holdings is a relatively unique event. So that could be part of the reason what's been adding on to the sell pressure recently. You know, basically a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin has been getting sold as they've been liquidating their position in GBTC. So that's one thing that could be basically adding on to the sell pressure there. And it's one thing that I definitely wanted to point out here during this livestream. Let me take a drink of water real quick. All right, now the next thing that could be adding on to this is of course a sell the news event, right? So what's a sell the news event? I'm sure you guys have heard it before where people say buy the rumor, sell the news. Well, that's basically what that means, right? Where people were buying down here, right? In September, October, November, that's when this ETF news began, right? And you can see how Bitcoin rallied during that time. So imagine if you, the people that bought when they bought the rumor, they bought around, let's say they bought at around 26 to $30,000 in that range, 26 to $28,000 probably is more likely. So within 26 to $30,000 they bought, let's see what that looks like. Let's say they bought at 30, let's say they bought at 30 and it went all the way up to $49,000 if they sold there, right? That's a 63% gain within, let's see, with from October to January. So in a quarter basically, in three months, they went from if they bought at $30,000 or if they bought at, where is this? This is about $30,000 if they sold up here in three months, they just made a 63% return. So if you have a whole lot of money, let's say you have $100 million, you just made $63 million, you could probably just sell everything and just sit out for a while, right? So that's kind of what we've been seeing here. Where a lot of these big, big money firms, institutional investors probably bought on the rumors of the BlackRock ETFs and then as soon as it was approved, they took that advantage of that to sell up there while media was covering it so much, right? So remember that during the ETF week for Bitcoin, it was everywhere. There was all over the media, that's all they were talking about on any show that had to do with finance, there are commercials, so retail, that's when their retail craze starts and that's what pushes the price all the way up or tops out and then what happens, all the people that bought down here sell and dump on all these people that are buying now based on all the media coverage, right? So they get dumped on, Bitcoin's dropped 21.5% and now they might start buying again, right? Those people that sold up there, they now is a time where they could potentially begin to fill their bags back up. So that's why we have to watch what happens here because basically the way that the markets work is that they want the average retail investor to suffer, right? They want them to suffer as much as possible and they wanna cause the max pain to the point where you start selling, right? That's what these are. These are shakeouts. They want you to sell your Bitcoin, right? And once the retail begins to sell, maybe you're like, nah, I'm gonna just hold, right? At 10%, they're like, yeah, that's fine, I'll hold at 15%, okay, it's now 15, but I know we're gonna bounce, I'll hold at 20%, nice, now people start to panic at 20%, right? Now they're down 20%, so if they bought $1,000, now they only have $800. 20%, they might start panicking here and this is where people might start panic selling. If we get to 25 or 30%, then retail is really gonna be panicking. And at that point is where the institutions, the market makers come right back in, buy it all up and move the price all the way back up and then Bitcoin will set new highs above 50, I think the next leg up could potentially retest the previous all-time highs. So what's gonna happen when we retest all-time highs? I think we're gonna get something similar to what we're seeing right now, right? I think that what's gonna happen here is we're gonna reach our max paying point, retail is gonna panic sell, institutions come back in, buy it all up, push prices back up all the way to previous all-time highs. Once we get back to those previous all-time highs, potentially even set any all-time high, what happens? Bitcoin is all over the news again. Bitcoin is all over the media. Media starts covering Bitcoin like crazy. People start, the ETF companies start running commercials for Bitcoin ETFs. All that begins to happen again, drives in more retail. As it drives in the more retail, they pump the price up and institutional investors that are gonna be buying down here at the mid-30s, that wrote it all the way up again, right? Let's say they buy down here, write it all the way up, let's say $75, let's say $70,000. 83% return. And what do they do? They're gonna dump it on everybody once again. They'll dump on retail. So this will probably pull back another 20, something percent, right? Back down to $50,000 or so, then that is just the whole process over and over. They'll buy back again once retail panics, they panic sell, they'll buy once again, push the price higher, set new all-time highs. And that's when we could potentially hit what I'm thinking is my target, which is $100,000. They'll double their money there at $100,000. I think that's when we see another potential sell here pullback where it could potentially drop back all the way for another 20, 20 something, maybe back to previous all-time high down here. And then at that point, I would think in 2025, and then at that point, I think once again, we get one last push maybe there, where they come back in, buy back at $70,000, push price to like 140, 150, maybe even 200 plus. So that's kind of the idea I have for the future here. And I'm just kind of thinking on how market makers like to play the game, right? Based on retail. They wanna bait retail in, dump on retail, bait retail to sell, then push price back up to bait retail back in again. And that just happens over and over and over again. So that's pretty much what we're gonna be watching here over the long term. For we're watching for those that max pain, we're looking for that max pain for retail where institutional and market makers are gonna come right back in and push prices right back up. And then we look for those points, right? So this was a perfect point here, 49 grand to dump on everybody. I think the next big point is gonna be at previous all-time highs, dump on everyone. And then after that, the next big selling point is gonna be around $100,000, dump on everyone again. So we'll see how that works out. That's just kind of my idea. Now let's talk about some potential trade setups here and we'll wrap things up with this. If you guys have any questions about anything that we're covering or that we've covered already, let me know in the chat and I'll be more than happy to answer those questions for you guys. All right, so let's see. So right now, I honestly don't like anything. If you're trying to catch anything down here, the issue is that you're basically trying to catch a falling knife, right? That's what I call trying to catch a falling knife. So imagine someone throws a knife at you and they say catch. That's what it feels like trying to enter a long position here. And the argument against a short position is that there's a lot of support here and we're already down 21.5%. So that's the issue at our current level with long and short. So if I'm looking for a long, I'm gonna be looking for a bounce. I wanna see a bounce back in Bitcoin's price. So the first level that I would watch is 40 grand. $40,000, I think a bounce above $40,000 would be interesting and could potentially be something. Have a very, very small position where we enter above $40,000. Keep a tight stop in case we just drop back down, get rejected and just take profits along the way. So I think that's the first area I'd be looking at. Second area is $42,000 and I'd be more confident with the $42,000 breakout entry. So those are the two levels that I'm gonna be watching here for breakouts this week and the next, right? If we fall further at $38,000, let's say if we fall below $38,000, then I'd potentially be interested in a bounce back above $38,000, I'd be interested in something there as well. So those are the three different areas that I'm currently watching. As far as short positions, I'm honestly not looking to short. One, we're down already 21.5%. Two, the overall trend is to the upside. Three, Bitcoin halving is coming guys and it's only a matter of time before Bitcoin's price starts moving back up. So due to those three things is why I am not personally looking to short anything right now at the current levels. So I think that pretty much wraps things up. We've covered, we broke down, we analyzed Bitcoin's chart, we took some predictions, we looked at the potential halving and how that could affect prices. We looked at some predictions for the rest of the year and next year, some potential selling points for market makers and how market makers are playing the game. And we also looked at some news that's been out, FTX putting sell pressure on Bitcoin through selling GBTC. We got the sell the news event. So a lot of different things, right? That all kind of just came together as a perfect storm for a sell off here for Bitcoin. So if you guys have any questions about anything that we covered make sure to drop it in the comments. I'm always happy to answer those questions for you guys. I'm always checking them. So if you have anything that at all that you wanna ask feel free to drop it in the comments. Other than that guys, again, this is a great buying opportunity for the long term for the next one to two years. If I didn't, I'm adding to my positions as we speak today over the next week. And these are any money that you're adding here remember is not to take profit right away it's just to hold on for the next one to two years through that bull run rally that we're expecting and historically has happened after the Bitcoin halving. So very excited for what 2024 is gonna bring us guys and very excited for these next two years. This next bull run could be crazy because now we have institutional investors through Bitcoin ETF. So it's gonna be crazy. I'm very excited for this year guys. And yeah, it's pretty much it for me guys. So if you guys are interested in knowing more you guys can join, you guys can follow me over on Twitter you guys can follow me on Instagram, TikTok and you guys can join the Discord for more information. So I share everything that I do personally the trades that I make personally my personal trades, whether it's leverage trades or option trades. And then we also have an algorithm bot that gives out signals as well in the Discord. So you guys if you want more information on that you could join through the link in the description right now. So thank you guys so much. I'll see you guys on the next one. As always peace and love.