 It is no secret that August was a brutal month for Bitcoin dropping over 11%. And now we walk into one of Bitcoin's worst performing months of the year historically speaking. So in today's video, we're going to look at what to watch for this month on the economic calendar that could have an impact on Bitcoin's price and then look back on the history of Bitcoin during the month of September to see if we find any clues on what to expect this month. Also, I'm going to show you guys why another down month in September might not actually be so bad. So let's go ahead and dive right into it. What's up guys? My name is Jay and welcome to Bitcoin Daily. Remember that this content is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before risking any of your own money. If you're new here and you enjoy this content, make sure to smash the like button and subscribe to the channel. So let's go ahead and dive right into it. So let's start things off with the economic calendar for this month. The two main things that we will be facing in September that can impact the market and Bitcoin's price, of course, is the inflation data, which will be released on Wednesday, September 13th at 8 30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. And then the Fed interest rate decision, which will be a week after that on Wednesday, September 20th at 2 p.m. Eastern Standard Time. So after topping out at 9% inflation rate last year, inflation dropped for 12 months straight with a low of 3% in June. And last month's report for the first time in a year, inflation went back up. We went from 3% to 3.2%, which led the Fed to once again raise interest rates. Now next week, we once again have a report due and we're still waiting on the consensus here, but we're hoping to stay around that 3.2% and hopefully not go higher. However, when the consensus does come out, make sure to pay attention to that. Last month, for example, the consensus was 3.3%. So even though inflation did go up from 3% to 3.2%, we still came in under consensus. So that's usually what we want to see. We want to see us either come in at consensus or beat consensus. And that usually prevents a drop in the markets. What markets do not like is being wrong. So if the data comes out worse than the consensus, then we can expect a drop across all markets. For the interest rate decision, it looks like we are most likely getting a pause. You can see the probability here for a pause is 91% currently. But remember, these numbers can change. This is not a guarantee, but from everything that I've seen, that I've read, it looks like we're most likely getting a pause this month and no rate hike. So if we get a pause here, it probably won't affect the markets. If we get a rate hike, it will definitely affect the markets. And I would expect prices to drop if we get a rate cut, which I'm 100% certain that we're not. But if we were to get a cut, then we can expect prices across all markets to go up. Now, where I expect the volatility is doing the Fed Press Conference. This is when Jerome Powell gives a statement and answers questions. Usually the reason that these things cause some volatility is because he basically gives some hints into the future on whether or not there might be another interest rate hike, or pause, or cuts. Now, for the most part, these guys are usually overly bearish because they're trying to not impact the market. And if they sound bullish, they know that markets start soaring. So I'm taking a wait and see approach there during that press conference. Now that we've closed the month of August, which ended up being a pretty brutal month, Bitcoin lost over 11%. Let's now look forward into September on what we could potentially expect here. If we pull up the Bitcoin monthly returns chart, you'll see that September has not been very kind to the price of Bitcoin historically. For six years in a row now, Bitcoin has gone down during September. And 10 out of 13 years that Bitcoin's price has been tracked, Bitcoin's price has gone down during September. You can see that the average return during September is minus 5%. If we put that historical average on the chart, that gives us a price of about $24,500, which would be a $1,300 drop this month. I know it kind of looks bad for this month. However, there is some light at the end of the tunnel. This might actually be a good month to DCA in your long-term positions. Let me show you why. In the last four years, Bitcoin has gone up in October. The last seven out of eight years, Bitcoin's price has gone up in October. And nine out of 13 years, Bitcoin's price once again has gone up in October. So although historically September is Bitcoin's worst month, October is historically Bitcoin's best month. You can see that the average return in October, historically is 26%. And right after that, November, another one of Bitcoin's most bullish months historically, the average move is 37, almost 38%. And just to get an idea of what would happen, if again, Bitcoin moved at those historical average over the next three months, after a drop down to $24,000 in September, Bitcoin would rally back to $31,000, which is where we topped out here in July, and then have a continuation rally in November all the way up to $42,000, which is pretty wild because both of those numbers are big resistance levels for Bitcoin. We got rejected at $31,000 in July, in June, in April, and $42,000 was a previous all-time high where we got rejected at back in January of 2021, which again, was a big resistance here, was a support here and here, and was a major level during this time right here. So it'll be very interesting to see what kind of rally we can get in October and November as things begin to fall in place for that bull rally. Remember that the Bitcoin halving is coming up in about 223 days in April of next year. It's also believed that next year, they will begin interest rate cuts. When there's interest rate cuts, that usually leads to a bull market. Then we also, of course, have the Bitcoin ETFs. It's only a matter of time before those get approved. We have the presidential campaign in the United States as well. Again, historically, Bitcoin always rallies during that time. So it's like everything is starting to fall into place for that next bull run. That's why I have been yelling dollar cost average during these times because 2024 and 2025 are expected to be some insane run for prices. Let me know what you guys think will happen this month. Is Bitcoin gonna go up or down? And also, how do you think Bitcoin will do through October and November? Let's continue this conversation in the comments. If you enjoyed this video, don't forget to smash that like button and subscribe to the channel for more content just like this. In fact, I just found a Bitcoin buy signal that has never been wrong in its entire history. I dropped that video last week. So make sure to watch it to see why I just added more Bitcoin to my long-term positions. Just click it on the screen right now. I'll see you guys there. Peace and love.