 All right, what's up everybody? This is Alex from Xtrades and welcome back to another weekly trade ideas list. I hope everybody had a wonderful trading week last week. All that good stuff. It's a relatively crazy week in the stock market. Had lots of volatility, lots of whipsaw, lots of back and forth. But overall, I would say it was a pretty good week. I personally had an all right week. There was really only one good trade set up I would say that played out last week. Now it's SE or C limited that went up from Monday to Wednesday. Had pretty nice upside, broke out of that wedge. DVN looked like I wanted to pull back pretty well into Friday. I'm actually in that still, but closed relatively flat. So hopefully this DVN put position can get us into profit next week. Really just depends on crude oil futures, how this Israel Iran stuff plays out. But you can see, I mean, other than that, really just scalping spy. I mean, we had spy puts three times in a row here. One spy call took a loss on that one. But overall, pretty good week. It wasn't bad. Spy puts were hitting pretty good for scalps. And DVN really hoping that plays out this week. But otherwise Caesar's, we had Caesar's last week ticker symbol CZR that had a false breakout went back inside the downtrend. Now not looking as good, but it's still holding support. So maybe keep that one on watch if it's holding the lows. Otherwise wait for a breakout again on that one. Said a pretty rough sell off. So really only see limited. Like I said, it was good last week. But before we get into really anything, we're gonna go over the economic calendar real quick. It's actually very quiet this week. Really don't have any big data sets except for retail sales here on Monday. Maybe the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. This couldn't move us, but really I feel like retail sales is going to be the big one on Monday. And then it looks like we have Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking at 1.15 on Tuesday. So here's the actual calendar date here on the Fed website. It looks like we have a discussion for Chair Jerome Powell. It's gonna be a moderated discussion with Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada. So not sure if this will move the market, but really anything with Powell is a potential market mover. So definitely keep watching that on Tuesday. Then a couple more Fed speakers on Wednesday. We have Mester and Bowman speaking that day, but it's not gonna be till after hour. So 5.30 and 7 p.m. Probably not gonna move us honestly. Thursday is just gonna be probably the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey. This could move us. Maybe just due to the lack of data for the whole week, maybe the market will be looking for something to grasp onto. So definitely keep a watch on the Philly Fed Survey at 8.30. Couple more Fed speakers. We got Bowman and Williams. Also existing home sales at 10 a.m. That always has the potential to move us. Keep watch on existing home sales. Also Raphael Bostick speaking, another Fed member once at 11 and then once after hours at five. And then on Friday at 10.30 a.m. Austin Gulsby, and that's really it. Really no big data sets this week. Like I said, retail sales, probably the most important. Second most important, maybe the Philly Fed Survey and existing home sales. Probably even argue second most important. It's gonna be Chair Jerome Powell speaking at 115. It really just depends if he's going to comment on monetary policy or if he's gonna give his opinion on rate cuts or really anything like that. Lots of times he's pretty good at not giving the market what it wants because he doesn't want people to run his comments, especially the bond market. And overall he's done a pretty good job of keeping a stance of relatively neutral and kind of just being data dependent. So really the FOMC days for Jerome Powell are always the biggest. Everything else after that. Maybe sometimes when he testifies in Congress the market can move as well, but otherwise these speeches and stuff, they really don't do it too much. It really just depends, like I said, if he goes in depth on monetary policy and it might be a rare instance that he actually does. So that's for the economic calendar, relatively quiet on data. But like I said, we also have Iran, Israel conflicts going on right now that's been kind of moving us around, especially crude oil and treasury yields. So that can be a market mover as well. But as you know, conflicts like that are totally random. So it really depends on what Israel wants to do if Israel wants to retaliate for Iran's move over the weekend. Maybe he could see some volatility in the market. Lots of times people end up disappointed because they think the market will go lower. Keep in mind when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24th in 2022, market rallied 9% off the lows after that date. Don't get too excited with puts or anything. You know, make sure we're actually breaking some levels. Make sure the technicals look good because you'd be surprised. Fundamentally we can do the opposite of what makes sense, especially during times of war or conflict. And on to the seasonality for this week we're looking at the spy here. We have April 15th to the 19th. Relatively bullish historically. Actually not even relatively very bullish historically. We've got winning trades at 75%. Summarized profit at 15% for this little period right here. You can see this is a really nice upthrust historically. Definitely keep a watch on that. If we go down to the 10 year data set, most recent years. It's also very similar at winning trades, 70%. Summarized profit at 5%. So pretty bullish for seasonality. Last week we were supposed to be bullish as well. We really didn't follow it too well. As you can see, I mean this was last week. So it was a pretty good uptrend. We did have a couple of bounces on the spy. Like if you bought the dips, it worked last week. It's not like it didn't. Like you could buy at lows and we rallied pretty hard off lows. Even had a gap up or two as well last week. And still we ended up selling back off, especially on Friday we closed under the lows. So it was very back and forth for the seasonality last week. But overall I would say we still held the bullish momentum. Like you could buy dips and it worked. But in terms of the overall trend and gapping up multiple days in a row, that did not happen. As you can see, I mean, there was a pretty relatively bullish trend here the last couple of weeks and we've kind of been stalling out. So seasonality is not always gonna be 100% accurate. Gotta be careful with that. But on a month by month basis, you can definitely see the broad trend. And really minus this February dip that we were supposed to average, I would say the spies followed the seasonality pretty good in terms of the bullish moves, in terms of the up thrusts for the strong parts of the month, especially in April and mid-March. We've done pretty well. As well as this little run up into February here as well. I mean, we followed that pretty well as well. Just this little dip that we averaged. I mean, we only pulled back about 1%, I would say. I think it was from the 12th to the 13th of February. And then there was another one, I think late February, another 1% pullback later in February, but it got bought back up. So you gotta be careful with that. We didn't follow it to the exact trend, like this down trend you see right here. So that's for seasonality, pretty bullish. Winning trade is 75% over the last 20 years, looking pretty good. Maybe we're setting up for a bounce. Really depends on the VIX and the spy and we'll get into that later. All right, now to the individual tickers. Our first one here, we're looking at shop. I really like this one because we do have strong support at 70. You can see 70 flat here, relatively good area, bounce from general area right here as well. We also have one day 200 EMA support. This is our one day 200 EMA. So we definitely wanna see a curl up off this area. Obviously we probably wanna open over 70 on Monday. If it opens below 70, it starts opening below the 200 EMA. Wait for it to get back over 70 before doing anything that could be a potential invalidation. Under 70s, under the one day 200 EMA, you want to be able to manage risk correctly. So your 70 level is your risk off under that, risk on over that of course. Price targets, you're probably looking at this little structure low here at 72.64 first as a short-term level. Overall, I mean, there's a lot of room to retrace, obviously. So yeah, keep in mind, this is a one day chart. So this move from 70 to 72, if it did want to bounce, that's almost a 4% return right there. So even though it looks pretty tight, it's a pretty nice move from 70 if it's able to do that. We could also add this one day nine and 21 EMA that could also be a short-term price target since we're trending below it, you might need to use the movie averages as targets as well. So I would say that 72 area is probably gonna meet right up with the one day nine EMA and then your one day 21 EMA is right here. Your nine and 21 is just creating a cloud, also same for the upside, nine 21 creating a green cloud. It's the same EMAs that I've been using, it's just in a cloud formation. So that's for shop, it's looking pretty good. I mean, potentially of course, obviously we need a probably a better signal off 70s and then you have potential up to 72.60s, also up into the one day nine 21 EMA cloud area. Also maybe even overall the one day 50 EMA which meets right here as well. So keep that on watch. If it gets over 72.64, that structure low right here, that would probably really start getting some momentum. So definitely keep that on watch but overall needs to hold over 70. If it starts opening below the two order EMA or 70, like I said, on Monday, be a little bit more skeptical, wait for it to reclaim over that and you can start looking at calls again. So shop, looking at calls, be patient, be a little bit more careful, markets are starting to break some structures a little bit, got more tensions in the Middle East. So you gotta be careful with longs. All right, in second, we're looking at Lululemon. Take a symbol Lulu. So this is a pretty contrarian trade, obviously. I really like this uptrend line though. So we have a test one, basically a test two, test three bounce here, now coming in for a test four or just a test three if you don't count this one. So one, two, three. Either way, this can confirm some type of dead cat bounce or trend, it really just depends. Obviously one week bar is not looking very bullish, especially last week's, I mean it closed under previous week low but we are starting to pull into that 326.93 structure low right here. So this general area of 326 can hold up as a demand zone as well as your one week trend line you have right here that can hold up as well. So looking for some type of dead cat bounce on this, obviously you might have to go down to the one day as well to kind of figure out where the movie averages are at. So we're trending under the 921 combo cloud pretty well. If it does want to dead cat, you might need to be careful once it gets back up to the cloud. That'd be a pretty gnarly bounce anyways. You're getting about 30 points from here up to the movie averages. If it does indeed get up there. So it's a pretty nice move. About seven or 8% if it went from 336s to 360. So really nice. I mean, 7% is pretty good on equities especially for options if you had some calls here which I'm looking at calls. Obviously risk off is really going to be under your 326 area also under your light blue trend line that we looked at on the one week. Make sure to draw this on your chart. Make sure to watch it carefully. If you don't know how to draw the trend line just mark probably the 326s. If it breaks under 326, it's likely going to break under the trend line as well. So if you just want to mark the 326 as a level you can do that as well. But I'm looking for a dead cat bounce here something quick and aggressive. Something that most people wouldn't look for. And that's a contrarian trade. A little bit riskier, go smaller. Maybe even buy time in your contracts 30 plus days of expiration to deal with that draw down risk. Cause obviously it is in free fall so you gotta be careful. But like I said, trend line looks really good. Overall have strong structure at the 326 area and it's been selling for weeks. I mean, it's obviously due for some type of dead cat bounce. You just gotta find the right spot to do it. So hopefully this trend line in this 326 area is that area to do that. So Lulu looking at calls be cautious. It's a contrarian trade. Like I said, if it breaks under 326 90s or just 326 flat you probably start looking at something else. All right, and last but not least we're looking at draft Kings. Obviously this is a pretty long-term fib set. This is all the way from 2021 highs down to the 2022 lows. So this could be like a good kind of swing trade rejection set up to the downside. If you didn't know the 61.8% rejection is usually a pretty good play to the downside. Especially if you're measuring a downtrend with Fibonacci like this. The 61.8 is usually the most sought after ratio to kind of go short at. So that's one thing I was looking at well obviously with draft Kings it's still in a pretty good uptrend. So I'm not really sure I'm gonna look at longer term puts on this. I really don't care for that too much. Maybe if it has a little bit more evidence of breaking under the one day movie gaverges like if it gets under this one day 50 EMA here I would look at longer term stuff. And then also it has earnings coming up May 2nd. And I really don't wanna swing puts through earnings or really any options through earnings. They don't really care to do that. It's gambling. You really have no idea how their report is gonna go. But what I do like we have the combination of that long-term 61.8 rejection plus this uptrend line breaking on the short term we got a test one, test two, test three basically test four here almost test five miles but failed right there. Also kind of under your nine 21 EMA combo now very briefly obviously this was a break under two but we closed back over it. This is now starting to get an official close under that. So definitely wanna keep that on watch. Obviously the last time it broke under the nine 21 combo right here it was a fake out. So you gotta be careful with that. Like I said, overall it might need to get under that one day 50 EMA, which is your medium term moving average right here. But I do like this for day trades like quick scalps to the downside if it can get down to the 50 EMA see how it reacts there, if it can break under that you can start shooting lower probably like this little 40, 40 area or 40, 50s that could be good as well kind of the structure low if we can get under this little structure low here as well might need to get under 43, 50s but get under 43, 50s that could take you down to 40, 56. So you kind of have 43, 56 it needs to break under your 50 EMA in order to get to the lower 40s but this looks pretty good for a short term flush. So I'm liking short term puts on this. Obviously nothing I would hold overnight looks pretty good. And I mean, give a nice little flush here. Obviously if it starts just rallying back up and reclaiming the trend line you can look at something else it's probably gonna go invalid. So gotta be careful with that. When it comes to technical analysis you gotta just kind of take the emotion out of it. Also you kind of have a little rejection area right here at 45, 62. So if it stays under 45, 62 I really like the odds even more of it falling as long as it stays under that you can see it kind of struggled right here these last three bars. So here's the 45, 62 I mean you have a rejection, rejection and a rejection here. So definitely keep that 45, 62 unwatched is kind of a short term resistance as well. What I'm liking is the up trim break and overall it's probably just due for a little flush or some type of little pullback so people can get in cheaper. But draft keying is looking at puts, be patient. I really wouldn't do any longer term puts on this even though it's a longer term 61.8 rejection. I just don't recommend holding anything through earnings unless you have like a lot of time I'm talking like, you know six months type of time to deal with, you know earnings risk. Otherwise all short term looking at this I like the potential for a dump and that's what I'm gonna be looking for. All right, not through the indexes this week we have the same levels cause we really didn't really go too out of range last week. So last week we have 524, 11 we have 518, 22 we have 512, 76 which is last week's sell-off low also had this demand at the 510s we actually reacted pretty decent to that on Friday just a little bit and then also had 504, 90 and 503 which is gap structure low. So we follow the levels very well you can see this was actually Mondays open so I figured if we stayed over 518 we had a chance to get back up to 524 we were not able to do that as you can see this little Tuesday bar it was so crazy like it looked like it was gonna rip higher obviously and next day we gap down right back to structure low at 512, 76 but I can show you on the 15 minute how accurate these levels were working last week so you definitely wanna mark them. So here was Mondays open you can see at 930 the 518, 22 with a nice little push off that you could have scalped off that we pulled into 518 again right here short term scalp was pretty good for there also flushed under the 518, 22 look when we flushed under the 518 it was very big flush we really didn't have a level for this Tuesday open right here because we didn't really reach the structure low so that one was a little bit more tough Tuesday was a kind of a difficult day also closed back over 518 this is kind of when it looked like we could push higher up to 524s but then we gap down into our 512, 76 which is what we were looking for on Tuesday we were hoping to get down here on Tuesday to buy the dip but we couldn't do that but we pulled into it on Wednesday and you can see it held up to the penny at the open actually scalp this at the open pretty well to the upside just traded a little bit of the gap fill obviously I don't go for full gap fill as I go for like a quarter or halfway because sometimes they take time they're not just gonna fill one hour you can see we pulled back down into 512s again and just relatively good holding at the 512s and a really nice push again on 512s kind of a little bounce right here on 512s that worked pretty good and a flush under 512, 76 which led to our demand zone you can see the demand zone kind of short-term bounces as well so the levels worked pretty good so I definitely marked these same ones like I say we have 524, 11 we have 518, 22 512, 76 we have our drop based rally demand which is 510s down to probably lower 508s and then our structure lows at the 505, 90 to 503s in terms of moving averages we started closing back under the 921 EMA combo but I'm really not feeling too bearish just yet not until we get under 508s and the one day 50 EMA so you wanna see a combination of breaking actual structure lows plus breaking under your moving averages and we really just haven't seen that yet you can see the dip buyers keep trying to show up every time we get to a low we have some type of dead gap bounce so you gotta be careful with that and this demand could probably lead to the same thing so you gotta be careful obviously the max upside I can see for right now if it does wanna bounce I really can only see up to the one day 921 EMA wherever that's gonna end up obviously tomorrow's open is going to give it a new value so we'll have to see where that ends up but you really can't project past the one day 921 EMA combo because look what we did here on Thursday ran up into the 921 EMA combo here and then closed back under it again so you really have to see like a solid close back over the 921 EMA combo to see more upside and that's why if we do dead cap bounce here you can really only project up to that because it can act as resistance or a lower high so hopefully that makes sense but we are under the 921 EMA combo now so the trend is starting to shift a little bit we just haven't broken any major like horizontal levels you don't really see a big shift here in structure we're still holding this 508 to 520s it's been relatively choppy I mean not good for swing trading I mean even if you swung puts it would have taken you a little bit to get this to pay out because it really didn't bust this low until Friday you would have had to deal with all these short term bounces and all this rig bullshit just a bunch of dead cap bounces very crazy price action lots of crazy swings and probably lots of algorithmic trading lots of liquidity kind of stepping in during the big data sets and just lots of volume as well so yeah the most important levels I would definitely mark these since we're still in this range like I said 524.11 which is this little double top area we got 518.22 which is a back test right here support right here also 512.76 this sell off candle low right here also drop base rally demand so 508s I'm sorry 510s down to 508s this little base candle right here and then your major structure low at the 504.90s probably just 505 flat you can round that up and then 503 which is the gap support and we can even mark this gap we really probably have to start getting inside of this gap and actually flushing that gap to really be bearish and then overall I mean we probably need to get under the one day 50 EMA to even think about touching the one day 200 EMA all the way down here at the 470s so I've got to start losing some more serious levels before projecting super low or anything obviously with the VIX we are starting to get a little bit more volatility but still have a chance to sell off aggressively and the market will see a dead cat so you gotta be careful with that so that's for the supply like I said mark these levels they're pretty important and they worked really good last week alright not to the QQQ or the NASDAQ I don't think I traded this one at all last week it got stuck mostly to the spy because the spy's been working pretty good with levels so it looks like we have 448.64 as our kind of 52 week high res also a rejection area right here we also have 446.95 which is the sell off candle high we also have 442.50 which is this previous structure low right here on this bar also multiple rejection levels right here we also have 442.50 also had your drop based rally demand worked pretty good on this day really nice bounce of the general area also from Friday's rip also have 433.70 which is this multi bottom low and then your structure low at 432.60 which is your very low structure low like the actual week low and that's what's holding us from entering the gap so you can see QQQ is very rage bound I mean it's been a little bit harder to swing trade same with the spy I mean this doesn't look fun to hold 30 plus days expiration you probably lost a lot of theta really haven't seen a clean trend in a while if you're looking at a one day chart of course obviously there's more clean intro day trends on five minute, 15 minute, et cetera but if you're looking at a more long to medium term trend you have not had that really so the levels we have are pretty good you can see first thing Monday here we pulled into that 442.50s we have marked directly rejected off of that we had another flush under the 442.50s right here on Tuesday also another pulling into it again 442.50 forward didn't really get a rejection candle so you probably wouldn't have really known that this was gonna gap down right here but we still did so the failure to get over 442.50 was really crucial and probably why we couldn't go higher you can see once we got over 442.50s right here really big push on Thursday and then get back below it on Friday so very back and forth but this 442.00s was so critical and I really had a feeling it would be that's why I went ahead and marked it last week we really needed to get over this 442.50s to retest the 52 week highs and we just were not able to do that I mean you had a short term bounce here there was a big wick off it right here also another big kind of reaction off it right here and then it's kind of like a median line like you need to get over it to be bullish under it it stays bearish so it's probably the same thing again this week the 442.50s is probably gonna be your most important to get back over for velocity but there is gonna be some opportunities down inside demand here so we can get down into this little demand area like bounces down here as well this is drop based rally similar to the spy demand we were looking at so yeah that's your level is make sure to mark them so right now you got 448.64 you got 446.95 which is the sell off candle high maybe you could even mark the sell off candle low as well but like I said this little demand so it kind of covers this whole area from 436 down to 432 so this is a good dip buy area down here and then you got structure lows at 433.70s and 432.74 which is holding you from this little gap we start at during this gap or breaking this demand zone low we are going to flush pretty aggressively so lots of back and forth no dedication or loyalty to closing over the one day 921 e-mail combo hasn't mattered yet two closes last week and it did not see follow through really so it's a little bit tougher it's definitely a lot choppier you gotta be more careful stick to scalps I really wouldn't be opening any swings or anything crazy up here on the QQQ I don't really see a reason to just stick to scalps, day trades like I showed you on the Xtrades app you know we had a pretty good week on spy puts last week just scalping puts I mean nothing crazy and I have one swing on DVN open and that's about it if you do really want to see some bigger levels on the NASDAQ flushing it probably needs to get under the one day 50 e-mail which is your line right here the close under that definitely going to enter the gap and then overall probably need multiple close under the 50 to even get down to the one day 200 e-mail which we haven't tapped this in a very long time all the way back in October 2023 so this one day 200 e-mail is a great bounce play be wonderful to get back down there again obviously it'll take you know higher VIX lots of volatility and a very big drop to get down to the one day 200 e-mail from up here so that's for the QQQ very choppy I mean we really haven't gone anywhere since NVIDIA earnings on the 22nd of February so we've been in the same kind of 448s to 433s back and forth I mean you can't hold swing trades longer than a couple of days if you're you know buying at the lows you can sell the next day if it gaps up and that's about it no type of loyalty to the moving averages we are going back and forth between them as you saw right here so very messy got to be careful but good levels and good scalp opportunities all right and last but not least we'll go over the VIX so last week we had the pretty much the same levels we have right here I might have added 1794 during the trading week last week I don't really remember but either way we've had 1540 pretty much on watch 1540 is a very crucial velocity zone once the VIX starts closing back over that it does get pretty aggressive to the upside and then same thing once it starts closing back below it it can get very aggressive and head back down as we've seen you know one, two, three, four, five, six times so that's why the 1540 is so important it's kind of like a median line once it gets over velocity increases once it closes back under velocity increases to the downside as you can see we had one, two, even three closes under 1540 last week and that was not enough to bring volatility lower and for us to bounce pretty aggressively and then on Friday just a huge pop almost hit 20 at this point I mean we got all the way up to the 19s it's very aggressive the Israel-Iran conflict scared a lot of people made people pile into hedging and thus increasing implied volatility increasing premiums increasing premium inputs etc. the cost of hedge increased one thing it did hold up pretty good we could even get rid of these drawings real quick and just look at the movie averages so you can see the one day 200 EMA has been a strong resistance point every time it gets up there kind of rejects off of it also kind of acting as a magnet for when it gets too low once the VIX gets too low starts heading back to the one day 200 EMA kind of as a mean regression target so you kind of just see it going back and forth there same thing in the past once it gets too far below it'll shoot back up to it reject off of it shoot back down shoot back up to it etc. so now last week you could see we really kind of failed to close under the one day 200 EMA with confidence as you can see I mean it held up the general area pretty good as well as the one day you know 921 EMA combo cloud here so held over all the movie averages used the one day 200 EMA as support for this big balance as well and that's probably why we really couldn't see volatility sell off because we really couldn't get back under that one day 200 EMA and also couldn't get under your 1540 with confidence like I said we had a close here on Monday close under 1540 close under 1540 on Tuesday and a close under 1540 on Thursday and it just wasn't enough to send us back down to 1367 so now the big one you're going to be watching this week 1794 just this peak right here we really needed to stay under this otherwise if it gets back over volatility is probably going to get aggressive and we will see the market try to shoot lower again so 1794 big one of the week second most important needs to get back under 1692 which is a short term res right here third most important needs to get back under 1604 so if it gets back under 1604 that takes you back down to 1540 and then 1540 probably going to be your most important in the future needs to get back under that that takes you back down to the lows right now our most important is whatever is closest right now 1794 and also 1692 so those are your two big ones need to get under those for the spy to bounce aggressively if you want to see the market bounce those are your two you want to get back under you want to see the market shoot the bed you want to see more bears more puts more put gains you want to getting over 1794 1794 lots of free space up into the 20s so the fact that it could not close over 1794 on Friday that probably kind of delayed bears a little bit and gives the bulls a chance for your volatility to sell back off aggressively you can see that move in the spy upward so that's really all I got for you guys this week make sure you like comment and subscribe hopefully our setups are good this week last week so it's pretty mixed like I said, SE did pretty good Caesars did not do well and then DVN did pretty good I guess but close flat for me at least but there was a couple of good entries you could have taken to being green on DVN puts last week but I'm still holding those DVN puts definitely looking at spy scalps again same thing as last week also going to be looking at shop calls Lulu calls and DKNG puts so we see how that goes sometimes I don't even end up taking these and I just trade the indexes it really just depends but we usually have a pretty good list so definitely keep these on watch definitely tune in every single week you'll probably find a jammer too in these videos and in our analysis so I love you guys I'm gonna get this chopped up sent out all that good stuff and I'm out there's a reason why Xtrades is currently the fastest growing application on the market for sharing financial ideas with over $2.5 million paid in the last two years to contributors users are flocking to see what trades the top traders on the leaderboard are sharing in real time if you're looking to grow your reputation as a trader on the internet or disgust your trading ideas with other reputable investors click the link below and get connected with the trading mentor today completely free of charge