 Salaam alaikum. Hello. It's a real great pleasure to be here. Thanks for the great intro. It's really, it's interesting to see all of you from different cultures, different ages, so I'm very pleased to be here. I was born in Germany and lived in Germany, moved to America when I was 20, to San Francisco, became a musician, a jazz musician for 10 years, and then got on the internet, moved back to Switzerland. So I'm a little bit of an American, a German, a Swiss guy. These days I live on the plane, more or less, but I run a company called the Futures Agency. Can I have a little bit more monitor please up here? So thank you. The Futures Agency is a company that essentially tries to bring the future to our clients. We work with lots of clients all over the world who are very busy just doing their business, and they don't really have time to look ahead, whether it's a month or a year or five years. So what we do, we have about 20 associates. We look at trends from all over the world, and we bring that into companies to figure out what the next business model would be. So my job really as a summary, oh before I forget this, congratulations to this. Obviously big deal. I think it's going to be great. I'm not much of a football fan, I have to admit, but still I think it's going to be great for you to have that here. So basically what I do is this. It's really an easy job. I listen. And I have two kids, 16 and 21. All I have to do is to listen to them. I always say the future is like listening to a 15 year old. Then you in some way, you know the future. My Twitter handles are G Leonhardt and Futures Agency. Forgot this. A couple of my clients are companies like MTN, Vodafone, Deutsche Telekom, mobile companies, Google, Nokia, many, many others that we work with around the world. Most importantly, as a futurist, I'm not about predictions. I don't have a glass bowl where I look inside and say, okay, like this, right? That's not what I do. I work with what's called foresight. I look at developments and I try to work backwards to say, okay, in two or three or five years, we can expect the following. That's quite different than predictions. So let's keep in mind. Now, Henry Ford was quoted saying this. If I had asked people what they wanted, Henry Ford made, of course, the car, the first commercially produced car. He said that if I had asked people, said they want faster horses. But Henry Ford didn't invent faster horses. He invented the car. He asked people, of course, didn't get an answer. We sometimes have to look beyond the obvious. One step beyond the obvious. As an example, the person that's brilliant at looking one step beyond the obvious is Steve Jobs. The touchscreen computer, the iPhone, all these things was just one step beyond the obvious. Don't believe me, Nokia would have had a person like this, but maybe they will eventually come up with that again. So I think we're only at the beginning at the tip of the iceberg of the digital content revolution. Today, there's 4.3 billion people on mobile phones and roughly 1.8 billion on the Internet. The next three years will have every single person who has a mobile phone connect to the Internet as well. Think about what that will do. Right now, broadband Internet is only really for the rich, okay, especially on the mobile. The future would be completely different. Every single person with a cheap mobile device connected to the Internet. And of course, you know, since you live here, I don't, I live in Switzerland. The Middle East has the highest Internet penetration, pretty much, of any territory, including Europe and the US. If you look at statistics, you can't really see them because they're too small here, but Qatar has added in the last 10 years 1,353% of Internet participants' growth. So the growth that goes on in this region is phenomenal. I think you can expect a lot more of this. Having said that, I think a lot more money has to be invested in a faster infrastructure, obviously, 3G, 4G, LTE, before we can really talk about the digital explosion. But basically, what we see happening around the world is that broadband Internet access completely changes broadcasting, broadcasting, television, radio. All of a sudden, we can do this. We can connect to lots and lots of other ways of getting entertainment and content through applications through the Internet, through Facebook, which is half of the population in this country is on Facebook. You probably knew that, probably more than half, and only one-third in Switzerland. So broadband will revolutionize broadcasting. And if we look at this, it's probably going to be a combination of the two. But in television, for example, just to give you an example, this phenomenon of people connecting to each other, YouTube, 75% of YouTube traffic is done by links. People don't go to youtube.com. They get a link from somebody. It's done through a network system. It's a whole different logic of how that works. And it's essentially the network effect. And this network effect used to be just the kids or the geeks or the weird people. Today, the network effect is for every single person. This is a huge difference. The biggest growth in what's called social media, the biggest growth is between 35 and 55 years old. It's not the kids. So if you're thinking of all that weird Internet stuff as the kids, that's no longer the case. You're not safe. It's not just the kids. So the network effect is crucial, and we're going from a world that was like this, big companies, big banks, maybe big government, to a world that goes like this. Of course, we have both. We still have big companies and big government and big taxes and what have you. I live in Europe where we have that. But still, this is a huge shift. All of a sudden, it's user empowerment. We can go on the Internet, compare the prices for an airline ticket. We can criticize a restaurant. We can meet somebody strange on Facebook or Twitter that gives us advice about something that's all kinds of things that are happening that are basically about user empowerment. And this is basically what's happening as the user is getting control. What used to be called the consumer, the couch potato. All of a sudden, at home, my wife who is very much into watching some TV shows, she's on cable TV, but I use Apple TV and Hulu and the Internet. So we're always fighting about who gets to pick the program because I like user control. And that's the trend. That's where we're going. And if you're in the traditional media business, newspaper, television, radio, publishing, you're in this spot right now. It's a little bit hard to see, but there's a surfer surfing on the wave here, while there's a tornado coming up. You're in this position right now, you're still happily surfing, selling yellow pages and books and magazines, right? But the reality is this tornado is going to completely redo the beach. So basically companies now lose control of their customers and their markets. When new technologies and the behavior, they enable the users to interact on their own terms. And this is not some kids of California hippy stuff, right? This is everyday reality now for every single computer. Look at this, right? MTV was the destination for cool music videos for a long time, and only took 18 months of these guys to replace them. 18 months to beat a company that's been around for almost 20 years. Now, if you want to see a cool music videos, where do you go? You don't, you don't wait for Viva television or MTV. Are you still watching MTV? They're still around, right? But this is where everybody goes now for cool videos. A little bit hard to see this slide. But now you have the Huffington Post, one of the leading blogs for politics and economics in the US, in a very short time, the Huffington Post has more traffic than the Washington Post, one of the oldest newspapers in the world. In a very short time, look at the blue line of the Huffington Post, right? How did they do it? They came up with this called social news. You log into the Huffington Post, you become part of what they do with the content, you do the rating and the commenting, and all of a sudden using this very simple tool which took a program about one day to program this, right? Social news, right? And of course, they use these badges, you can earn badges if you're active, which takes about 30 minutes for a programmer. And of course, they are on the mobile. Using these very simple approaches with 40 people, they have 40 people and stuff. How many people does the Washington Post have? 8,000? I don't remember, but a lot. And that traffic is exploding. Facebook now reaches more people than newspapers in the Middle East. All of the Facebook users are more than copies of newspapers. You may have seen this app, Mid-East Youth. Anybody know this app? It's an app that allows people to connect in all different languages in the Middle East. It's very popular among kids now called the Mid-East app. So, can I keep the picture on the monitor, please? So, if you're looking at what's happening around the world is that this is becoming a very, very popular motif, right? Is people don't want to wait anymore. People are also not interested what Google Search says a year ago was the best restaurant in Doha. That's what you find on Google, right? If you go to search.twitter.com or Facebook, you find a restaurant where somebody was there yesterday, leaving a comment, right? Completely different. It's about today. It's about real time stuff, right? Real time social mobile open. Can we put the picture on the front again, please? So, I can see my slides. So, you have applications like the Consumer Report, right? Where you can compare prices when you're in the shop. You have Netflix streaming on your mobile. You have Spotify, which is a mobile music app that's very popular all over Europe and Sweden and so on, where you can listen to six million songs on your mobile phone. You have the Kindle. You have this thing called Instapaper, which I use. It's a fantastic iPhone app that allows you to read articles offline. Ever since I started having Instapaper, I don't print anymore. 150 pages a day is what I used to print. Take it all on the airplane in my back, right? Now I use Instapaper, no more printing. So, these kind of things, real time, social, mobile and open, that is a huge change in our society. And Wendy Clark, who's the Vice President at Coke, she says, now we're living in a landscape that's liquid and linked, right? That looks like this. We're living in a society that's about linking and connecting to each other. As for example, Al Jazeera has showed the world pretty much along with CNN, how to use social media on television. This is a very good example of what we're seeing around the world in television. So if you're looking at this number, this number shows the amount of data that's being generated on the internet. And this data is generated by people clicking a like button, sending an email to somebody, or liking something, rating it, forwarding it, sharing it, right? This data is exploding because all of a sudden we're all running around with mobile devices. We're all doing these things on the mobile. It's a whole different way of doing things. So now the amount of data which currently is 800,000, 0.8 zettabyte, that's basically the amount of iPads from here to the moon, that's 0.8 zettabyte, it's exploding the 35 zettabyte. This amount of data is 80% generated by the users, not by media companies, not by newspapers, but by us. So here's something I want to share with you. I think it has special relevance here in this country. Data is the new oil. In an oil economy, this is becoming very interesting. All the data that we generate as users, what we share, our location, what we like, which web pages we go to, what we see, what we say on the web, what we share generates huge amounts of data. And every single company in the world wants my data as a user. So they can sell something to me. That's how advertising works. Brands and companies spend per year $1 trillion to reach consumers. $1 trillion. Half of that money is going to go into a digital process of finding the right prospect buyers. And data mining. So data is truly becoming the most powerful thing in media and in business in general is data, right? It's a question of who gets the data, gets it out of the ground, who refines it, who uses it, and who shares it, and who has permission. There's a huge amount of potential conflicts with data. You're using my data without permission. You're using too much of it. You share with the wrong person. You know, all these things that we see now every single day about data. And wars were fought over oil. Now wars will fought, will be fought over data. Virtual wars, hopefully. So big opportunity in my view is data. If you're looking at this as a potential future of Qatar, you know, maybe I can propose this, the knowledge economy, which seems to be the official sort of slogan already, right? It's about knowledge. It's about social commerce. And it's about data related technologies. Technologies that are able to match people and offer them stuff and work on advertising, which I'll talk about in a second. But data related technologies, I mean, that's basically what Google does. So that is the future of what we're going to see here. Now the past of media, as I'm sure you're very aware of was this, right? Monopolies, controlled environments. I'm not saying this badly, just analysis. Okay, walled gardens. And of course, the biggest culprits here were the telecoms. In Germany, before there was telecom regulation, you could not oppose to anything, because there was no alternatives. It was completely walled garden, right? Vodka's culture was about disconnected walled centralized television. And this worked for a long time. Trillions of dollars were made. All of a sudden, we're now entering a time of where everything gets to be a lot faster. So the half life is shrinking. You guys know this company, AT&T. In America, AT&T was the dominant phone company called Mar-Bell for 100 years. This company, Universal Studios, was the dominant producer of motion pictures for 60 years. And of course, still is dominant to some degree. This company, very similar, 50 years. This company, Microsoft, 25 years. They dominated. This company, Google, how long did they dominate? Until now. 10 years. Google is already significantly threatened by the likes of Facebook, Twitter, and others. 10 years. So the time of domination is going to be like shh, shrinking like this. Now Facebook, time of domination, one more year. Three years. So the time frame is going like this. This is also why we don't have to worry about internet monopolies. They're just no time. We'll never have a monopoly like Universal Studios on the internet because there's too many things happening. So if we look into the future, we're already seeing a piece of this. But as I said earlier, broadband internet is only roughly about 900 million people who are actually in a fast connection. So it's not that many. Now all of a sudden, internet access on the mobile phone creates this that we're all connecting to each other. And I call this broadband culture. Broadband culture is global. It's also very local. But it's a connected culture. And I can assure you a connected culture as Marshall McLuhan has said 1971 is not about peace, harmony and quiet, right? A connected culture is a lot of discussions, a lot of back and forth, and quite a bit of chaos at times. Because when you have a lot of people connecting, it can't be quiet. How can you expect the world to be quiet when it looks like this? So television is a quiet world, right? Because we can't say anything. Is there going to broadcast no matter what it does? So we're entering what Creative Commons chief Larry Lessig calls a new cultural economy. How does this work? When we're all connected? Who's going to pay who? Can I still sell my books? Can I still make music and get money and get paid for it? Who pays whom? Should they pay me or should I pay them? How does this all work? What are the rules? We're still very much at the beginning of this question. Having said that, I think there's one thing that we can see already today, that the future media business is about being connected parts. It's almost impossible now to run an empire like Disney, like Universal Studios. Not because they're bad, but because it's a very complex world, right? Everything connects to everything. The future of content is about interconnected business models. As again, Al Jazeera is proving, you have to connect the web and the television. Because the future isn't just the web, but it definitely isn't just television. It's both interconnected business models. As the president of Google China, who is no longer there, for obvious reasons, he said, it's mutual interest rather than a monopoly. That's the key to growth. That in my view is also the key to peace, of course. Mutual interest. We have in media, for example, the constant debate about the telecoms should pay for illegal content. Google should pay for the links. All these discussions, in the end, it comes down to this, we have to create business models based on mutual interest. Here are some of them. If you're looking at these models, you're saying, okay, why is Wikipedia worldwide number three or four or five in the entire use of the internet is Wikipedia? It doesn't own anything. It doesn't hire anybody. It doesn't even write its own content. I mean, why? And why is Twitter so popular? 40 people, 140 characters. Why is Facebook, NPR, Android, Google, and the Huffington Post? Why are they successful? Because now they're connected environment like this. So that's the future. We're going in this direction, which means a lot of networked scenarios. The Guardian, the biggest newspaper now, English-speaking newspaper on the web, the chief of the Guardian says mutuality is the business model. In other words, if I make money, you make money, we make money, but it's not just I make money, you make nothing in terms of media. So what we're seeing here is a mutual business model, which will be actually quite hard to do. Because the reality is this, right? I no longer have the domination scheme here on the bottom, but in this landscape, I'm going to deal with content providers, advertisers, telecoms, and device makers. Those are the four pieces. And it can just be that money is only made by the telecoms or by the content people, right? Future business model will involve making money together. So picture it like a mixer. You stuff those four people into the mixer, you push the button. Out comes the business model. That is, of course, the business model of Facebook. Facebook is the biggest broadcaster in the world. Facebook is bigger than the BBC and Al Jazeera and CNN together. Right now, every six minutes spent on the internet is spent on Facebook. Now imagine if Facebook said we're going to add a TV license. We're going to add a music channel. We're going to add games, which they already have, of course, right? Making lots and lots of money, right? Facebook becomes with one sweep the biggest content provider, the biggest infrastructure of content ever. I call this telemedia. So you're lucky, because you are now growing up in a lot growing up, but you're not growing into an era of telecom and media, where we have the convergence of the two, which I think will be very exciting, often all kinds of ideas. So basically the collaboration of all these pieces of the puzzle, that's where we're going to go. Which brings me to this juicy question. If I got one euro every time somebody asked me this question, I would be a millionaire. Okay? Everybody's always asking one question, isn't everything free on the internet? Isn't it true that nobody wants to pay anything on the internet? Of course, the answer is not at all. If you're trying to sell something on the internet, you have to have the right price point, the right package, the right attraction, and it takes off like a firecracker. People are spending last year 6.8 billion dollars on virtual content, flowers and tractors and lawn mowers, not real ones, but on Facebook you can buy a tractor to play on Farmville. You can send some flowers through Twitter and you can buy all kinds of 6.1 billion dollars, 2 billion dollars on dating services, that's content. 400 million dollars on LinkedIn. You guys are on LinkedIn? Many of you are LinkedIn, right? 400 million dollars to connect people through a database. 100 million dollars on Flickr, to get the Flickr Pro batch. I mean, people are spending money on Netflix, which is the biggest service in the US, right? 20 million subscribers paying $10 a month for motion pictures. So the question isn't about free or not free, the question is like, can we increase people's perception about why they should pay? The question is not forcing them to pay, because there's lots of alternatives that we have to really think about how we can deal with this issue. I think one of the things that we're going to see in the future a lot is bundling and packaging. For example, I think a lot of telecom companies will start offering music and motion pictures as part of the mobile access. So you buy the mobile phone with a contract and music is free. You buy the DSL access, you get movies included. You buy a mobile phone, a mobile device, you get free books included, right? That's called bundling. And we've seen this already happening around the world, right? Bundling and upselling. So if you're currently in the media business, you have to look in this direction. Can you bundle your products in with some access to the internet and then upsell people to other offerings? The most successful sector in media in the last few years was gaming. And how do they do it? They give us stuff for free. The gaming guys say download this game, play the first 10 levels, invest 20 hours of your time, and then if you really like the game, 80% of people put down $50 to get the next 10 levels. That's how they do it, right? They bundle it into something and then we upsell from there, just like cable TV. So that's the business model is basically now on the internet and on the mobile it has skewed a little bit like this. So the first part really is what I call fields like free. Many of us love this as consumers. We get something like Gmail, right? Many of you use Gmail, I'm sure. Gmail feels like free, but it's not free. Why is it not free? Because Google reads your email. That's not free. You pay with data. Google reads your email. If I'm going to Doha, then on the right side of my email it says great hotel with Carlton and Doha book now. That's how I pay Google. So paying with attention, I call this. That is a winning business model in the digital economy. The key, if you're for example if you're in the media business, the key is you have to be able to give something away that doesn't cost very much. That's the key. Obviously if you're giving away everything for free then you can't make money. So there has to be a process of upselling. If you're in a television business or the print business or the movie business, figure this out. How can you get people in at a low price point and then move them up the food chain? Lots and lots of successful companies do this. Skype, right? You guys love Skype. Everybody loves Skype. It's free. How did Skype make $550 million last year when it's free? The answer is I use it for free but I want a phone number in Doha. Skype will give me a phone number in Doha. $15 for three months. I never use it. I buy another number. That's how Skype makes money based on free. So what's now happening is that we have this whole convergence. The latest Disney movie called Tron. You guys may have heard about the next big science fiction movie called Tron. They use Facebook as a platform to show the game. So on Facebook you can go to this thing called Tronyverse. It's a game that you can play on Facebook about this new movie. So Facebook is now a broadcaster and essentially this is what Mark Zuckerberg Zucker as they call him in the Bay Area says. You should take note if you're in the media business or even if you're not. Zucker says he expects his company to make billions and billions of dollars turning the TV news, film and music industries upside down. You should take note this is not some pirate or some pirate bay guy or some fool. This is a 26 year old guy who runs the biggest company on the internet right after Google. And he is right. He's going to turn the entertainment business upside down. That's a huge opportunity. So now brands are looking at this. Big companies. They're saying okay the internet is cool because we can be publishers. So Pepsi said here's 20 million dollars for people with ideas called the Pepsi Refresh campaign. And they made a website that if you have a great idea to change the world to be a better place that that's the deal. You publish your idea on their website and Pepsi gives you free money. Pepsi has given 20 million dollars to about 90 different ideas. And so Pepsi becomes a publisher. People talk about Pepsi and they sell more Pepsi. That's the idea right. The same goes of course for Starwood hotels using Twitter. The same goes for all these brands that are using Twitter and so on. The same goes even for Coke right. So brands become publishers. If you're running a brand a car company or a construction company you have to publish stuff. You have to think like a media company. Videos, blogs, content, Twitter. You have to actually publish things for people to be able to find you. Here's the CEO of Telefonica. Very smart guy and he says something very important that I think we should take home with us today is that the new digital paradigm creates huge opportunities for the industries that transform and leverage technology. Let me turn this around and say if you're in an industry that's not leveraging technology you're probably toast. It works the other way around too because there's companies out there that will use technology to come to your business and destroy it in two years. Because that's what the user wants. That's how Google killed Outlook. That's why we're using all this stuff on the web. That's why the power of the internet allows us to go and book an airplane ticket with the same authority that a travel agent had 20 years ago or 15 years ago. Now we have the authority as the user. So look at this slide about Google's internet traffic. Update today is roughly 8.5 percent of the entire world's internet traffic is caused by Google because people are searching. Look at this slide showing you how much data is expected to be used per month, per handset. I mean imagine people have this iPad like devices or Android or whatever you want to use. They're not going to get away with 300 megs a month. It's going to be three gig a month because devices works so great. And Cisco says here that the traffic is absolutely going to explode. So basically if you're in the telecom business you can't just sit there and let this happen. I don't know if you're ending in the telecom business here but if you're a mobile operator you're going to have to pay more and more and more and more money to keep your network running. Because everybody's always on doing stuff and this is not anything yet really big. Retail really takes off right? So at that point you have to figure out what you're going to do and then there's Steve Jobs with his miraculous device and then there is a Samsung Galaxy which is also a great device. As the network traffic explodes telecoms have to get involved with content, media, and advertising. This is the biggest shift in media that we're seeing today on a global level. You've seen this with China Mobile, with Singapore Telecom, with TDC in Denmark, with MTN in South Africa. All the telecoms are saying we have to get involved in the content business because that's where the action is going to be that is the reason for having the internet. So TDC in Denmark has a flat rate music service. If you use TDC, there's operator in Denmark, music is free. Imagine this all you have to do is sign up for a mobile phone with this company and the music is free. All of it. No questions asked. They pay for it. So that's the big shift that we're seeing everything that we consume, all TV shows, all music, all education, all banking, our health records is moving into the cloud. In 10 years there won't be people buying textbooks to study in most countries. In Brazil the government is already discussing giving every single student a mobile device to learn with for free because they're printing and shipping of the books costs more money than to give them a box. In Africa people are not going to study using books because the books cost more than they can afford to eat. So all content is moving into the cloud. That is the opportunity I think to figure out how this work, how to add value here, how to build technology, how to build applications when the content moves into the cloud. Which brings me on this interesting topic, the topic of piracy. You recognize this box there, right? Radio. Radio was illegal for 20 years. About 100 years ago when radio was invented every single musician publisher, record label, there weren't any record labels then but essentially music industry and said this is really bad. Radio is free music. Free music is not good because people when they can listen to music at the demand of a button why should they go to a concert? Why should they buy the sheet music? And they refused to do with radio. And one day around the world in different places France first and then US the government said this this this can't be right. If 99.9 percent of the population is using this box how come it's still illegal? And then the government said we'll make it legal by giving a broadcast license, right? By giving permission so we have to pay for the music but it's legal. So basically piracy is market failure. It's as simple as that. Market failure means lots of people want it but I'm not willing to sell for the price that they want to pay for. Creates a huge amount of friction so in Europe now we have all these laws about disconnecting people called hadopian three strike you may have heard. Disconnecting kids if they download for free. Of course the reality is I think you'll find out of course you know this is really a good story for this region. We have to meet demand as it is not not as it should be. We can't tell a 12-year-old that wants to listen on the mobile phone to buy a CD. I would buy a CD years ago. So piracy is market failure. We have to face if you're in the content business that's the future. We're going from selling copies to selling access and this is much much better for everyone. This is better for the environment because we don't print we don't ship we don't use ink. It's better for the artist because it's much cheaper to distribute. It's not so good if you're in the business of airplanes paper printing presses because at that point you may not be be entirely needed in the same way. So Kevin Kelly who started Wired magazine it's a great writer from a blog called The Technium he says basically the internet is a giant copy machine and you may hate this idea I mean I certainly would hate the idea as a musician I made 20 records I made four books I hate the idea of people just pushing the button and copying my stuff without paying. Okay but is there anything I can do about it? Isn't that what the internet is supposed to do? Is to provide access? So there's a dilemma here right basically we have to face this selling copies of content is the past. It's still the present also of course but if you're looking to grow your business in the future don't try to sell copies of content whether it's a CD a DVD or a book that window was closing and you can argue about when that window will close depending on the country and the culture and the amount of income and so on some people say that printing newspapers will be dead in America in seven years 2017 people will stop printing newspapers with very few exceptions I'm not sure I agree but we can't sell copies basically now content is moving into the cloud as I was saying earlier that has to be the business model so as that is happening basically we're going to see content become more like this more like a flow if you had gone to a party of 15 year old kids two years ago they would have sat down and said okay I have a hard drive 100,000 songs and the other kid would have said I have a hard drive 200,000 songs all for free today no hard drive today a playlist on the internet you click a button it plays nobody knows where it comes from it streams it flows so the digital natives the kids information flows when and how and from whom they need it that's also of course the social part so if you're in the media business today you have to think about content as a flow not as a download right something that just happens especially from your friends any of you may know this thing from Cairo called the harass map where you can go online and this is a good example for flowing you can figure out what people were harassed in Cairo in real time using twitter that's just one of those examples that come out of the flowing part so I'm going to head to the conclusion and we take some questions but basically what's happening now is that the law of disruption is really quite clear in digital technology as first we're looking at the tech stuff technology change