 I didn't tell me if we switched over when life and sorry it didn't show up It didn't say that it didn't say that it would switch for me. Hello. That's what the countdown was for It usually tells me when we've switched over and that we're actually in front of you Anyway, whatever welcome to tomorrow as you can hear we are everything is everything's going very well this week And everybody who's meant to be here is No sarcasm Jamie as you might expect is a bit busy with a Somewhere in Texas Jared is unavailable this week. So instead you've got me and Dutta And we've brought up someone who knows much more about all of this stuff than either of us combined. So hello Alex. How are you doing? Well, I'm doing that's that's what I'm doing You're not busy or anything are you? No, but I took some of my time to be here because you know you guys I always have fun with tomorrow So why not? I I think the last time I was in the show you guys still had 204 By a ways. Yeah That's to be here Well, thanks. Yeah, and you're here at a time where we are a bit in Limbo, it's maybe other than the right way to kind of describe it because Space X is space X is for a tree which I've brought up here saying the Starship Preparing to watch so it's November 17th pending final regulatory approval November 17th is The Friday coming next week You don't I thought I shared it never mind then but space X did treat that I promise try again We'll take it from the top. It's fine. Well, we'll catch it in post. It's gonna be great. Yeah We'll edit out It's okay, but space space X did tweet that and they are done everything on the website which we mentioned last week and they are kind of Going for it. They've been working on stuff at Starbase They've they stacked their stack ship on top of the booster I'm not kind of how many times they've done that now because they keep putting it on top They decided they don't want it on top anymore and bringing it back down and doing more work But everything just seems to be kind of there's this kind of this kind of Energy in the air everyone seems to be kind of getting excited like this thing could actually happen on November 17th, but we're still waiting for the Fish and Wildlife Service to give their final. Yes, it's okay to use your water data system But we don't know where in the process. They are but space X obviously thinks that they're Close because if not, they wouldn't have treated it or they're trying to get the FWS to hurry up like what's going on No, but nobody knows what's going on So it's this weird kind of in the middle state where space X looks like they're really ready to go but the regulatory side is still not kind of Saying anything there the regulatory side is saying we're the exact same position as when we told you last that they're not We don't have a license for them yet. So it's kind of like Yeah, I'll just say I'll just say from not experience that space space rocket companies never Ever publicized launch dates that aren't real To force the hand of regulatory bodies At all But yeah, I'm I've been thinking all these days in the last week or so We're in the process the Fish and Wildlife Services because they're like Drafting this sort of biological opinion and once it's completed It signed off sent to the FA and now the FA needs to you know, a few things here and there complete the whole package of documents and you know the whole What is the the saying that for aircraft? Being able to to fly their paperwork has to be at least As heavy as the aircraft itself So similar thing with the FA it probably needs, you know these big documents and You know as large as the Starship itself and so once they do that You know, once the Fish and Wildlife Service gives them the biological opinion then the FA needs a few days to complete the whole paperwork and everything to be able to you know, finally sign it off and give SpaceX the the launch approval But the whole thing is that if we are truly within a week of that launch The Fish and Wildlife Service must have need already to complete that the park is for the first flight They had a similar environmental review. I'm mostly sure you have probably heard about, you know Heating sharks and things like that by a certain person of a certain company That I'm not gonna name right and so That needs to be done for the first flight of a Starship and that first flight I had a whole reading reevaluation of many many things or whatever So they had to go through all of that stuff with the Fish and Wildlife Service You may have seen me run away Because I Explose you may have seen me run away because the audio was coming in through my camera for some reason not the Not the you have that I had plugged in. Anyway, we'll keep going much better I Know I say much better because you know, it's an actual microphone It's not just coming from a camera. That's you know halfway across the room But we'll keep going going. I don't know what happened to Alex Spanish internet for you But yeah Do you Friday Like match where SpaceX is in terms of Preparedness or do you think there we go that They're not actually gonna be able to catch up So if you if I will let's know your thoughts put them in chat. We'll bring them up because you know Nobody outside of the FAA at this point in time really knows what's going on I'd say but it's always fun to speculate so if we just get If we just get everyone to Therapy and chat to me one of them will be at least it's near What's actually gonna happen? Alex what when do you know we've got you back with what do you actually think it's gonna happen? Do you think that Friday is actually on the table? Well, it's gonna be interesting to see if they actually are able to to launch on Friday Before my whole computer shut down, I don't even know what happened there. It just shut down completely It had a bit of a of a first flight of a Starship there But yeah, the the thing that I was saying is that for the first flight they had to do that and Basically the whole process between the fish and wildlife service handing over the the documents to to the FA and the FA approving the launch license was like five or six days So if we are looking at a launch next Friday, I was thinking maybe the fishing wildlife service has completed it 13 right But I don't really know and if they haven't I'm really skeptical of a launch next week, but we'll see Yeah, I mean the next kind of day that the that's been flying around would be the following Monday So it almost seems like a repeat of April where the 17th doesn't happen and then it launches on the 20th Hmm. Oh now we're afraid of weekends Me I don't think we're we're afraid of weekends there is um Something I saw bouncing around on the internet, uh, like the there's been uh, a federal holiday in the us This weekend and the weekends and like Alex, do you know where The the FAA I believe works weekends, right? But do we know if the fws works weekends? I have no idea. I don't think we even asked Yeah Okay Yeah, the the whole thing because It depends on what you work on like I'm mostly sure that at least in the fAA Some things are not done during a further holiday But then you know Air traffic control and things like that that needs to be coordinated obviously during a holiday Especially in a holiday because people travel So I'm not Fully sure if these things are even Considered to you know be done and then we have the government shutdown Because remember the us somehow shuts down their government. I don't you know as as a european I don't I don't understand how that works. So you gotta explain it to me because uh I I'm gonna hold my tongue on that one But yeah That could be a serious thing because if by I think it is next friday when the shutdown will be So if that doesn't happen By next friday, then we're we're in a bit of a pickle with the whole situation It's then who knows if that's gonna be a thing Yeah, so what what reg what government entities need to be functioning You know, let's let's say they get their license and everything is good and they're good for the 17th What what agencies need to be functioning for SpaceX to launch like to execute a launch I think apart from the fAA Just air traffic control right For for a starship to launch well apart from from the fAA for the air traffic control Because they need to enforce all of the no-tams and blah blah I can think also of the coast guard because they also need to you know, remove all the boats in the area Well, they they don't they don't stop working because of a government shutdown. They just work for free exactly They they keep working. Yeah the The other one that i'm thinking about is perhaps the space force because I think While they do not launch from the eastern range the eastern range does have support for starship launching Because it crosses florida. So I think at one point There's some support coming from the from from the eastern range So they use the eastern range from florida for tracking I think so. I mean, it's not that I believe it'll get there, but Because if if a starship gets to that point of flying all the way to florida Like, you know between florida and cuba then That that will be a huge success, but you know, it's it's not really It's not really a guarantee, but you know, they they need that support either way just in case Just in case it happens. They really need that support. And so I'm not fully sure what's going on To be honest apart from that apart from those three entities fAA coast guard and The sld-45 from the space force. I don't really know to be honest Aravill points out we shut down our federal government government from time to time as a treat Governments do that when they're happy And healthy Yeah When everybody's playing nice, we just we just shut it down. We don't need it. It's we're good We're good for a bit. We don't need it. Who wants it? No one wants it, right? So let's shut it down It's my thinking is that if they're if they're already licensed to launch they The the cause in the license that says they can only fly once is removed if that's done If that if if this whole licensing procedure is wrapped up in time for a government shutdown then surely They'd be fine to launch because all of the things they need to launch have Have a precedent of operating during a government shutdown like like we mentioned air traffic control the coast guard They operate during shutdowns. So if that's all that's needed For starship to launch then Surely there'd be go It's not like space x is a private company. This isn't nasa operating a launch isn't a nasa mission NASA is obviously a government entity. So when there's a government shutdown nasa needs waivers for things Space x isn't a part of nasa. They're a private company They're not they shouldn't be affected by the government Apart from licensing and if the licensing is already done by the time that the government shuts potentially shuts down Then surely that shouldn't really be an issue Well, they do need government support for a range and air traffic control Jared Jared points out atc will absolutely work during government Government shutdown to a point during the last shutdown atc saying we're not coming into work for a few days Made the entire government get going again Oh and Dave Avery in chat actually has a very good point saying nasa Will be there for support with the wb 57 Which is I wonder if that will be a launch critical thing if they don't have the wb 57 there because obviously they don't need to play in there But it's a launch but the plane is there to observe the launch and get different perspectives So if the site is clouded out they can space x can actually go back and see what happened to the vehicle Uh once it's above the cloud layer where the wb 57 obviously is at 60 or thousand feet So that's actually a very interesting point if the government shuts down and nasa doesn't have a waver for their wb 57s will that halt any launch preps Huh Do they still need the inspector from the fAA on site for launching if I recall correctly that was an sn8 remediation um I I I understand that in the room are representatives from the fAA typically for launches um but I I would depend on how their launch license is structured Because if their launch license doesn't require somebody from the fAA in the room, then no they wouldn't need it Hmm. I agree The Yeah, I was actually going to mention that the The giant comment about you know, if it's a critical a critical item to a function of government It will go on during a shutdown. So that is that is pretty much how it happens that you know, even for space launches Uh, for example, there was this sort of thing Oh before when when the government shutdown was going to occur on september Can you remember that that was a long time ago now it came back So when it was going to happen at the end of september Uh, there was this this thing called psyche. I'm sure you remember launching on falcon heavy And so, uh, a lot of people were thinking will it affect the falcon heavy launch of psyche? Well psyche was actually In those things that you know, it cannot be delayed. It is super important because it has these You know planetary window and things like that, but if nasa were to be really constrained in terms of money That will also go out the window like no pun intended, but It is it is truly A thing that I remember when that happened on at the end of september I remember we were asking the agencies like is is this going is this going to happen at all? Like is this going to be canceled or something and they usually told us Well, we don't really know what's going on, right? What's going to be our plan until it arrives And so that is also a huge thing here to consider That sometimes they don't have a plan in place Which is scary if you think about it a government shutdown and no one has a plan about it Yeah Jared's comments said if it's a critical item to a function of government it will go on during a shutdown But how critical is it isn't the ha isn't the entire government critical exactly, right? No, it's not actually Are our our our police still works are um I believe our mail still works military still works atc still works um There's a lot of things that people do for We'll pay you later But at some point the people that are working get tired of it and you know start making noise Enough noise to make it uncomfortable to those that are keeping the government shut down But you know we have to have Critical functions to to to keep every the rest of the country running we have to have air traffic control We have to have I mean there's a bunch of things that we that we still have to have and still need to keep going Um, they just they don't get paid on their regular schedule Um, it's not that they do it for no pay. It's that they don't that the government isn't allowed to spend money uh what during that shutdown because of uh Appropriations haven't been made so Once they figure that out then they catch up all the books later, but you can't the the country doesn't stop because some children are playing Hmm It's it's a whole mess, but yeah coming back to to starship. I'm Not fully sure what's going to happen to be honest Again, I think if by Tuesday we don't have a launch license out Well the modification of the launch license Bluff this is so annoying to to say but It is pretty much like that if we don't have something by Tuesday I think we don't have a launch next week. That's my take So we'll see in two days. I think it is. I've lost count of the the passage of time. It's sunday Time is it? What time is it? Yeah, who knows? Yeah, yeah, that definitely seems like a realistic time frame for They only they only like they only want to launch on weekdays because they only have a limited number of weekend closures a year Road closures a year, so they don't want to waste them Uh, at least is my understanding of it. So they want to launch on a weekday to not waste road closures and they obviously need time to Prepare the site the vehicle the the tank farm, etc. Except for the applications So three days I mean that seems like an incredibly short amount of time in for a vehicle of this magnitude But you know, they can they they they yesterday they stacked it and destacked it again In the space of about 18 hours. So, you know Depends how they want to make them when they want to make their mind up with what they're doing Yeah, and if you remember from the first attempt to fly back in april, you know That was a long time ago back But when when we had dreams and hopes and everything but yeah The the whole launch situation was a bit weird because they got the launch license on a friday Then they stacked on the saturday. They have Reviews and everything on sunday, and then monday was the first launch attempt. They had an issue. They had to scrub. They went to Thursday april 20th, of course The launch happened and so That's the story, but it happened within three days of the launch license So that's why I say that if it doesn't come by tuesday, then you have Wednesday, right thursday and friday. So three days So I think if it doesn't come by by tuesday, then we're pretty much Not gonna see a launch next week Yeah Chibi says a a afts got installed. So definitely flying. Um, they can always uninstall it if they're not flying That's true. They're just they're just doing all the prep that they can do prior to actually launching They remove the hot staging ring and all so Yeah, I mean The rocket goes up goes together and comes apart Clearly, yeah, it's like they go Yeah, rockets are not lego. Well, take that Take that they can take it apart and put it back together Although unlike lego, they have to put it back in a very specific order if not, you know You pointy end up flaming and down Yeah Precisely, uh, there's a comment here. Uh, it's it's it's pretty easy to disassemble the rocket in the field. Let me tell you Roger c said uh chances of egon launching without the fish and mile graph permission, uh, I think uh zero Space space x is an e-lon and e-lon isn't space x that it's not an interchangeable thing Space x obviously as a company wants a good relationship with the government because you know nas has given them what's a money to build hrs Uh, and many many many many other defense contracts. So, you know, I I uh Space x wants to abide by the regulations. I believe They want to work as hard as they can to work with the fish and mile graph service in the fa They may want to accelerate things and they may put pressure on things in order to have things done a certain way Or in a certain time frame to as much as a degree as possible But I don't really see in Like for this flight for this flight at least I don't really see the company Just doing it anyway without permission, especially now. They've got this far. We've seen the fish and wildlife service and uh texas parks and wildlife at the Like at the launch site like when I was there I walked past their trucks that were just lined up on highway 4 They've been at the launch site inspecting the inspecting the area and working on cleanup and things like that. So After they've gone through this much collaboration I'd doubt That they would just Kind of turn their backs and just do it anyway without without the appropriate approvals and licenses There would be a lot there would be hell to pay if they did that Yeah They would there would be so many hurdles for them to jump through to be able to get licenses in the future Like their their entire business would be online. There's there's no way they would do that They're like every says SpaceX is proving how efficient they are at stat at rocket stacking Yeah Look you you don't get into 1.8 days of rocket stacking without without practicing over and over again Yeah The the the contrast for example with sls that takes multiple weeks and weeks to be able to stack all of the pieces Together even the solar rocket boosters They take like a month to be able to stack all of those And then they need to put the core stage then the Interstage thingy whatever it's called everything like it takes What? Two three months to to fully stack that thing. SpaceX is like whatever boom In 47 minutes they lift up the vehicle and put it on top of the boosters. Yeah, whatever little care done boom And they do it whenever they like That is true as well They can do it whenever they like because it's so easy easy to to put it together then You know with with sls I remember there was the whole thing with the stacking of the boosters and the casing Whatever it was it was a long time ago. So I forgot like back in the day. I remember all of the All of the things but now I'm not fully sure so but I but I remember there was this sort of thing with the solar rocket boosters if they stacked If they were stacked for more than a than a year or something There was some problems with the joints or something like it and I remember this whole thing of will they have to destack sls and NASA was asked about that many many times because it was a big deal if that were to happen they will need to destack the whole rocket And put it back again. And so it will have been several months of delay for that launch and You know in contrast with this is like, oh, we need to remove the hot staging ring and look inside of the top dome of the booster Okay, let's destack remove the hot staging ring and now they're up there looking at the at the forward dome of the booster. So it's like whatever In less than a day Yeah Dave also says no need to return to the vab for a battery swap. That is also true. Which is true because It's automated it's it's uh, it's you know Let's say I futuristic is automation futuristic. I don't know but at least it's not a manual system Oh Jared, I also have problems with my joints too Yeah, it sucks getting old I wonder if they'll have to they'll obviously with s I guess there was a There was a roll out and roll back Limits because they didn't want to damage the rocket They could only send it to and from 39b so many times and that was being discussed Quite heavily in press conferences, especially around the time that Hurricane Ian Uh came through florida when they were trying to launch s of s um, I wonder if there's a similar limit that SpaceX has internally for for starship stackings It's obviously you know, it's obviously not a small number because they keep stacking it And they bring things to and from different sites all the time But I do wonder if there is some kind of limit where they're like We don't really want to be stacking the ship on top of the booster more than 40 50 times in its lifetime at the moment or I don't know whether they're just going to keep doing it until until Until they break something I would have to think that they would just do it until they break something because this is supposed to be A reusable infrastructure, right? They're supposed to be able to stack and restack it so You're not going to have limits like on sls where you can all where you can only go back and forth to the va b five times uh on on a A SpaceX rocket because they want to reuse it over and over again But I imagine they're going to find out a lot about the wear of the interfaces and how everything goes together the How many times you can reuse a bolt or something like that that You know that that stacking and destacking just like a failed launches is actually good data For for them to to understand for use in the future Yeah It is also true that the whole system as you mentioned in in theory It needs to oh, thanks In theory the the whole thing sorry because theory likes to to Spool up at some points. Yeah in theory the whole thing needs to be reusable now We saw on the first flight that it wasn't reusable completely because apparently the rocket can be Sort of expendable, but then also the launchpad itself can also be expendable Or with huge refurbishment between flights Right, uh, which they which they got done pretty darn quickly Yeah, that is also true. They they got it done very very quickly To to their credit they they really I really thought they will not launch again until 2024 Within a week I changed my mind a bit and I said well it's not gonna launch Before the end of the of the summer and I left I left it at that I even made a bet that it was gonna launch on november 2nd and hey look i'm sort of Close together. I don't know maybe A little bit of credit to me, but yeah, I had a bet as well about cutting my hair All the way down, you know like disappearing all the hair And I'm glad I'm glad that I that I didn't that I didn't have to go through that because I don't like not having my hair So if it doesn't launch on november 17th, you're gonna cut all your hair off, right? Yeah Well, my bet was that it was it was not gonna launch so the one with the hair Was that was not gonna launch before the end of the summer So since we are already On the fall unless you you refer to the summer in the southern hemisphere though, then I don't think it's specified. Yeah. Yeah I should have said the the one in the southern hemisphere Not doesn't count, but yeah Someone said in chat alex just loves making precise and exact predictions. Yeah, I have a problem with that one And everyone that that knows me from nsf knows that I don't really like those kind of questions of when do you think this is gonna happen? I'm like, well, I think that maybe So yeah, I don't really like to give exact Dates and precise things because I know Jamie love it's not gonna happen Jamie loves asking those questions. I'm like, I don't know Then you're like me Thursday Thursday Yeah So tldr It might happen It might not it might be it might be a bit later But it probably won't be any earlier They might they might stack it. They might take the fts out again Everything everything how it is right now It can be the complete opposite in 48 hours time and spacex just does whatever they want to do and they might have a license They might not uh, they they might put the hot stage ring back on they might not We don't know Well, if they want to launch they need to have a hot stage ring back to be honest Oh, Jared what they stack we never know I just uh, I just uh, Mr. Mystic Wolf says hey, hey Yilan. We have five people at the pad with nothing to do great. Unstack it Yeah Just stack it do you stack it again? Yeah, don't worry. We'll keep them Yeah Anytime Jared anytime Um Yeah, so Well, go ahead go ahead Okay, I was I was gonna Say that if we assume that they launch within the next couple of weeks To in your opinion Alex from what we've seen so far with future ships and future boosters is a third flight before the end of the year Feasible or is that incredibly ambitious? I'm gonna say uh complete no and then spacex is gonna launch like december 31st or something But i'm gonna say no no No other launch. I don't see any other launch of a starship this This year if they had launched on september, maybe That will have been some chance but I don't see it happening. I I think the next launch if it happens this month uh might be around Fairy order abouts. I think that's gonna be a three month gap between launches At the very least a three month gap. Yeah, maybe more who knows but I think See, this is why people hate when I when I Answer these questions because I don't give a precise answer. I'm like, well, maybe three months Yeah, and I'll be interested to get chat's reaction to this as well Like when when do you think we could see a third flight assuming it launches in the next couple of weeks or so because It's also important to remember that there's only one way it can go right and there are Like an infinite other ways it can go wrong And if it goes wrong, they have to do the whole mishap report investigation process again with the fAA because their license to to perform a launch To get to hawaii and if they don't do that then they've Obviously not followed their license correctly. So they've had a mishap They have to do the entire investigation process again that they did for flight two So That's also something to consider when we think about this because if they have enough if if space exceeds to identify another 63 odd corrective actions to make in order to not I don't know have the hot stage ring combustor or something else that goes wrong on flight two That can that can add on to the entire the entire process and the pad also needs to you know Be reusable this time It is the pad needs to not be expended The arry king is saying june of 2024. That's that's a bit more on the conservative kind of end of it there seven months after after flying Planet zoo says a great january The names dave says january 3rd, which is quite optimistic dawn of clarity saying early february 50 april 2024 assuming that there isn't any ruds so that the flight goes as planned Yeah, I have here in front of me the list that you mentioned because there's like when You know when the fa says there's a mishap they have like nine conditions that are considered A mishap and things like serious injury or fatality malfunction of a safe safety critical system, right? There's like this list of nine things they consider a mishap and if they happen during your launch then Forget about launching for a while because yeah, you know, I'll go into an investigation a formal investigation for that and so Just the last one for example failure to complete a launch or reentry as planned like even if you don't have all of the other things such as high risk of causing a serious or fatal injury Substantial damage to property and plant substantial damage to property things like that Even if you don't cause cause any of that But your launch doesn't go as it is established on the launch license. You're grounded basically So just with that it means that the starship will need to launch Go all the way to hawaii And do the whole reentry and everything so if you really think that's going to happen on the second flight I mean I don't have words to say but to say like really Well, I mean just like Virgin Galactic went out of their their Flight path window and they had to answer to the FAA for that So your launch license dictates what you're so what you're intending to do And you know, you decide what you want to do you tell FAA that's how the launch license is structured So but if you if you don't execute that for any reason If there's that isn't outlined in as exceptions in your launch license then you got to go through the whole process again Yeah, yeah It's like you you have you have to have return to base plans if you fly a rocket from a plane you have to have Yeah, you know It escapes for Where you want to exit and you have to be able to follow those if you if something goes wrong goes goes wrong And if everything doesn't go to your plan You have to answer for that Yeah, I can actually mention a few of these that probably Are part of the other failures on the one Malfunction of a safety critical system. You remember when the flight termination system didn't actually terminate the flight, right? Hi, uh, what is it substantial damage to property not associated with the activity? Hmm Right I'm planned substantial damage to property associated with the activity. Huh the concrete tornado and things like that, right? I'm planned permanent loss of the vehicle Uh impact of hazardous debris outside of the fine areas and failure to complete a launch or reentry as planned So yeah of the nine things that They consider it's probably like five or six. So those the the less things that they had that they happen to to Basically put us mishap on on the second flight the better because that probably means a shorter investigation Look at rocket lab with with electron, right? The the electron that they had the failure on september They're coming back now in late november So it's what two two months of a turnaround time for for that failure So that is really quick And that is really quick So if if we're looking because in in that case electron had like a little tiny teensy very little small failure there with a with an electric arc or something like that Uh, and so it's like if something like that were to happen with the start ship Where it's like some minute thing that happens during the flight that can be easily solved And they don't cause all of the stuff that we saw on the first flight. They don't need huge You know infrastructure changes like the water deluge system and everything Then we may be able to see a turnaround time of maybe three or four months with that whole regularly regulatory side of things for the third flight, but Yeah, there's going to be regulatory stuff for the third flight most likely yeah But I think it's also important to remember using rocket lab as an example Uh, another small sat launcher abr space systems They their first launch attempt was january 10th or their first launch rather was january 10th Of this year and they've also only just in the last week or so gotten their mishap report all closed up and signed off with the f a a And that's much longer than star ships wads because they flew in april and they got their mishap report in september october time and rocket lab is really you know I was surprised when I saw that rocket lab already had the mishap report all signed off by the f a a and everything because They they they lost a rocket in september a two month turnaround for that was just like Huh? Okay, then I guess the f a a is working faster now and Thank you snuff garden for the super chat um, I think that goes to how prepared and how well documented your uh your your Your company is your your facilities how well instrumented um like If if you have all of your ducks in a row if you have all the information that you need in order to be able to execute Your investigation your investigation doesn't take any time Then you can turn around that investigation to the f a a and get get get flying again as soon as possible Uh, if you if it takes you a long time to figure out what happened to be able to Do testing and replicate it and and get the same data on the ground with a known situation um Then that's going to to extend the amount of time that your investigation takes because you haven't found an answer to What caused your problem? so that that that stands up as a testament to rocket labs organization and The the skills and talents of of their investigative team to be able to turn that around quickly as well as the f a a working to To uh to re reopen their their flight schedule Yeah, and one thing to mention though Is at least to me is how many Investigations like this the f a has has done in the last year because They had new shepherd From september of last year. They completed the mishap investigation already They have abl which they have already completed the mishap investigation They had a starship and they had electrons so in a in a span of a year. They had four different failures that they need to that they needed to to look at and so it's like a huge amount of things that Really with such a small Like one of the complaints I don't remember from from a few companies during You know, I don't know if you remember last last month when the whole senate hearing they were saying that they needed more More staff because it was you know, a lot of things To do for for such a small team So really you can see there that there's there's a lot of failures that they need to go through Because this is this is still very you know I will say it's like a baby on its diapers still trying to to crawl and and get up and and run It's still the beginning of of a space flight, right? And so there's so many failures still to to do and so many things to go through One thing that that surprised me with the abl failure by the way is that the failure is very similar to the way that starship failed Not in the sense of the root cause but what happened in flight, which is on the an abl they had a fire on the engine bay that Basically severe the connections to the to the electrical systems on the first stage in the whole rocket Just basically shut down the engines and it It did have whole pat fullback on starship. They also had another engine bay failure Uh with with all the fires and everything and also severe the connections in the rocket just basically went of course So it's very interesting that the largest rocket and probably the smallest rocket had these Same sort of situation and in the case of adl They also had a problem with the launch systems with the with all Mount and everything because apparently it was too small for such a rocket And so they needed to make a huge like a larger um flame diverter that they call it and mount and everything so um You know just the similarities between starship and abl artist one rocket It's like the launch mount needed to be to be removed and the you know and all of the things to be upgraded So, yeah Yeah, I couldn't help saying that Well, you know, I mean I I'm available Yeah abl if you're watching Give them a call Uh Jared's comment, uh said that we're the equivalent of the infancy of aviation's golden age a lot of uncharted territory in many respects And yeah, we are we are at the we are at the dawn of what spacex hopes to be a very fulfilling future of spaceflight With travels pretty much everywhere wherever you can think of with starship And um comparing it to aviation again, I was going to say earlier that if you like this this kind of Launch license equivalent In my I'm thinking anyway We'd be like if you fired a flight plan with the faa from like aga x to jfk And you flew to seattle You probably have some f-15s off your wing before too long if you didn't tell them where you're going Hmm Except starship is a bit quick for f-15s Yeah Little bit just a little bit But yeah, maybe at one point we'll have you know the equivalent but in terms of a spacecraft that just Space police Yeah, that's Jonathan like that Well, yeah, but but his work is in the ground. He will be the one, you know in the office office of the space police Yes, we'll send our dispatchers and then They launch and everything they can't have sirens though because it sound doesn't travel in space So they're gonna need some kind of oh, that's true Some giant lasers so they are Lasers in space And chibi has a good point which is SpaceX has basically broken all of the norms with space flights Yeah, we're falcon they are Launching more With it than anyone else with a cadence higher than anyone else and they were using they were using More than anybody has ever done. They are they are the first to introduce full repulsive landing reuse and actually have it Work properly for orbital missions and that has actually impacted the cost of the flights the reason falcon is as cheap as it is is because They bring the boosters back. They don't have to build a new booster every time so yeah, SpaceX has really revolutionized the industry with the falcon and They want to do it again with starship so they already have A lot of experience with that which I I think will certainly be very helpful when wanting to To spook up the starship program and bring start actually bringing vehicles back in order to reduce the cost of the development of the vehicle Yeah Thank you TM space for becoming a member And Jared brings up that it's not just SpaceX either many companies have their sites set high and that's a fantastic thing to have going on regardless of their aims Yeah, the origin of working on a Similarly sized vehicle I guess you can throw sss in there as well doesn't have the parallel capacity of starship, but you know still still a big rocket and and I will say especially for example like I don't know how to say this but spaceflight doesn't always need to be about you know going far and And fast if you know what I mean, right because we want starship to to be able to go to mars But then I also see the future in which you know We had regular flights to space where anyone can launch their own satellite for example Where anyone can just basically do some research experiment in zero g or things like that And we have stations, you know the future the actual future And the future is not just going far away But also here nearby we have a ton of things in space and doing stuff all the time, right? We're slowly getting there and we having more and more companies getting to that point Case in point Transporter for example a transporter nine launch yesterday had a bunch of you know orbital tugs and things like that I really think that the future of launching small payloads are pretty much like that. I'm not like I see maybe Space for a couple of small launchers But I think the future is like medium or heavy launch vehicles that launch a ton of satellites But these satellites are affixed to tugs for example, and then the tugs it's like, you know It's like a train, right? And then you take a a uber or a taxi cab or whatever, right? And you get to your to your destination like that last mile destination that's going to be the tugs And I think that is that is probably one of the things that we're going to see in the future And we've seen new origin themselves have now that service with new ring We have all the other companies even rocket lab has their own sort of tug in you know in In works like they actually have launch that kind of stuff So, you know, man, I think that's that's the future. It's not just going far and fast, but it's also here Closer to home. We have lots of things going on with Chugs and space stations and things like that and there's many many companies working on that not just as basics Oh, he's back. There we go. I think I for a second Maybe it's your I don't have a starlink Yeah, I got I got ahead. I'm just fine Um, I think if you're equating that to the the dawn of the flight age Uh, you look at the number of companies that Uh, that built different types of airplanes for different functions So today we've got cargo planes. We've got general aircraft. We've got commercial passenger liners. We've got you know big expensive Really comfortable ones. We've got the little tiny sardine cans with the with the The turbo props like there's there's all kinds of room for a variety of different types of planes And even extending that to, you know, the military or even drones for for payload delivery And the same is true of cars. We have semi trucks. We have pickup trucks. We have, you know, box trucks and tow trucks and passenger cars and single single occupant cars. We have motorcycles. There's all sorts of different use cases for the technology And and I think that's going to turn out to be similar for a space flight where We have, you know, large lifters to to take a space station into orbit around mars, for example, in one trip or Large rocket to be able to transport a hundred people there And you would have smaller smaller rockets that, you know, if you just need to get a small set into space You can do that with a much smaller cheaper dirtier constructed rocket that has You know less reusability in mind and things like that So it seems to me like there's there's room for Several players and and one one company doing it all it doesn't make any sense An hour available so says in the same in the in the same direction, you have giant cargo ships and also small pleasure boats Yep with boats so The skating the skating of the market will definitely be interesting to watch as the regular regular destinations Expand you want to go further. You need a bigger ship They're sending a hundred people at a time compared to I want to go to Leo for a day You don't you don't you do massive starship for that Another thing that that also comes to mind is things like in-situ resource utilization Uh and refueling in space and things like that and in-situ resource utilization is not just you know refueling While you are on the moon or mars or anything like that. It's also like Just manufacturing things on the moon or manufacturing things on mars That's going to be quite a deal breaker once, you know, we get to that point Because then you can start manufacturing things right there instead of bringing them from from earth, right? And so you save a lot of space in your rocket for all of the cargo and all of the equipment that you want to bring You can just make it there at your destination You don't need to bring it that with with your ship So it's definitely quite a game changer once we get to that point where We just put in all of the cargo that we want for the trip only and not for when we arrive to to the destination Jared does have a good point when company doing it all is dangerous when they have an anomaly that will stop all flights Which yeah, that's Maybe just different variants are important, you know When Boeing grounded the when sorry when the FAA grounded Boeing 737 max program because of dodgy mcast sensors The other 737s kept flying all the other Boeing jets kept flying Maybe SpaceX in the future just needs to divulge into different variants of vehicle Hmm, I don't know. I don't know how it's going to be licensed by the FAA in that way Is a is a stretched starship up a stage different From a normal starship will it be will it be licensed separately if a normal starship has a as an anomaly will stretch starships It'll be okay to fly, you know, there's questions like that It depends on what the anomaly is Yeah Even Falcon 9 and Falcon heavy now share the same launch license Like it's not a separate launch license for Falcon Heavy than Falcon 9 So if Falcon Heavy were to have a problem then Falcon 9 will also have a problem and frankly you could probably say that it will be Justified because Falcon Heavy. It's after all pretty much of Falcon 9 with two Falcon 9 boosters attached together, right on the sides So at the end of the day, it's pretty much Falcon 9 just a bit upgraded here and there I'll push back on that a little bit because they are they are different Yeah, but it depends on what the anomaly is Right, they are different structures. It depends on what the anomaly is and they likely did that So that they wouldn't constantly be bothering the FAA with the launch license for every launch Yeah, you put them all under the same blade. Okay. We're I don't want to talk to you this week Let's you got four launches. Just go to your four launches. I don't care Yeah Yeah, one one of the things that I was thinking about that Jared is mentioning in chat about the you know having two providers is How have we arrived at the point that now we demand having multiple providers for everything But we still have one SLS and one Orion, right? It's like I'm a big supporter of having multiple options to get to the moon So I want a commercial crew program with with Orion like alternatives. That would be awesome I mean, that's that's just playing the art. That's just playing the odds, right? Like odds are one of them won't succeed theoretically once Licensed and approved and human rated Starship can take people to the moon. You know, they're They're starting off by developing an h. I guess ruler and a variant which all right human rating a test vehicle To be used to land to take people out of a ride and put them on the moon and bring them back to a ride it's different from Human rating a vehicle that's meant to take people through our atmosphere and return them through our atmosphere Because I mean you don't have any atmospheres to play with there's no chance. You can you know burn up during reentry because there is no reentry But theoretically once human rated from earth to moon starship is Going to be capable of doing a ride's job and on a much much larger scale hmm, so Even that would be a that would be an alternative if anything happened with Orion With that, let's wrap up and we can carry on this conversation with the members stream. Oh There you go. So if you want to join us everybody Uh down below is a little join button and these are all the people who have pressed that join button starting off with the uh, the ground support citizen says, uh, the There is one there is a level below that system support starting at a dollar a month But they don't get their name in the show But ground support get their name in the show and then up up up through uh suborbital and then we also have the orbital citizens And then that is uh all these people on the screen now and that's topped off with the escape velocity citizens At the top they get access to the escape velocity discord channel as well where we build the shows and Discuss things so if you want to if you want to see The entitles of tomorrow run and see if people are available or not before we tweet it That's that's the level for you and uh, dj s broad was just Become a system support member. So thank you very much for that We're going to hop over to the members show now stick around on the if you go to the channel page on youtube Go over to the members tab and just keep refreshing till it pops up and it'll pop up eventually Uh, so that's where we're going to go over now. So, uh, thanks very much for watching Thanks, uh, Alex and Dada for for coming along as well and uh fingers crossed. We should see you next week after potentially Starship second launch