 Okay, very good morning. It is Friday 21st of February. So I hope everyone is well and I've got good news for you Sam is back and gonna be back on the microphone So I will stick to myself just going over the news headlines in general Fundamental view for the session ahead and then I will have Sam come on and he can look at some of the The charts more technically for this morning, but as per usual, let's just take a look at the general vibe at The European UK open sentiment a little bit dented from overnight obviously we had A bit of a downtick in US equities yesterday at around the European cash close kind of time Some people have just been talking to the the analyst desk about that and they were talking about some suggestion of rotation plays Few different reasons going around obviously the virus a bit of retracement consolidation given the push-up We've had this week in inequities. So not one specific kind of headline bumping things down But as I'm going to discuss I do think it's going to be quite an interesting end to the week For for kind of two reasons and I'll get into that in more detail But as you can see there gold remains elevated given the kind of gradual grind lower in Equity index future seen over nights and the DAX is already accession lows down over a hundred this morning And gold continues that acceleration and so we're trading up at around the R2 already this morning up at around 1638 I know people thought I was going slightly bonkers yesterday looking on the monthly charts back looking at 1650 1700 but you know, this is what I mean It doesn't gold is an asset that's very unique in a way and once there starts to become this Kind of flight to quality bid there's kind of no stopping it particularly when you know It's multi-year highs in which we'd be trading so the US 10 years already up 11 and a half ticks and that's a pretty impressive move for this time in the morning, so the T-note following suit and probably now going to find if anything a little bit of a floor of support around that R1 Did act very early in the European entrance as a bit of resistance But we've managed to just break above there as a little bit more weight has come in through the cash equity open here in mainland Europe FX markets not quite as busy as some of those other assets, but dollar index currently flat Obviously the euro's still hovering around that key 108 level and cable There's some key data coming out and the s1 does coincide here exactly to the tick with that the bottom end of that downward move that we had Yesterday afternoon to it. Well, let me that's the S&P. Excuse me. Let me just quickly shift over this chart Just I'm talking about the right product So with cable Yeah, we're just going to keep an eye on the low That kind of double-bottom from yesterday late morning early afternoon low that we had if we were to push through down through pivot Obviously data points coming out thick and fast throughout the morning will be quite key to whether or not that materializes so Quick look at then at the headlines because there is economic data of importance coming out throughout this morning And that is the flash February service and manufacturing PMIs the French numbers coming out in about 10 minutes Germany at 8 30 these will be potentially market moving. So We'll try and wrap that into this briefing But this is the truck kind of headline you're seeing this morning And I would say this is a little bit of a shift towards the point of it becoming a little bit more of a rethink for markets Particularly as we've said at these elevated levels and equities This is because now people are looking at the rate of how the Epidemic is spreading and multiplying outside of mainland China now if we just have a look here at the the kind of The live monitor by the John Johns Hopkins Institute You can see then that at the moment numbers outside of China remain relatively small You can see the total number of cases here on the left hand side out of the 2247 deaths only 11 so far have occurred Outside of mainland China. So that number is very small the World Health Organization still says the situation is manageable But warns that if countries don't take the situation more seriously The spread will become a wider global threat and hence then a pandemic in terms of the classification So the thing that you've seen here is the first step towards that which is more confirmed cases happening in other Geographic regions particularly South Korea in Japan within that region And so this is the kind of next evolution of which I think markets could be a little bit dented from sentiment and certainly I think that's what's a part of this risk-off move we're seeing this morning, but actually for me I think this was a really interesting headline this came out Late yesterday and it was the US government Expects China to honor its commitments to buy more US goods under a trade deal signed by the two countries Despite the fast-growing coronavirus outbreak according to a senior US official now one of the things that I've been saying quite a lot over the last two weeks is that Actually, one of the reasons I think behind the calmness if you like in reaction to the virus has been almost a de-escalation of potential confrontation of what has and is still one of the biggest risks to markets Which is the ongoing US-China trade war the thought being that because of the significant impact economically the US might give China a little bit of breathing room about the exercising of the Agreement for buying of large purchasing of agricultural goods as part of their upfront commitment in that trade deal now Here I think this is a little bit more aggressive from the Americans. They're basically saying We don't care even though you're having this problem with the virus You need to now, you know back it up and fulfill your commitments as part of the agreement that you signed and for me That's that reignites perhaps then a little bit more pressure on the confrontation side and for me given where equities have been and I think we are ripe for a bit of a pullback and earlier this morning. I'm not sure if you follow me on Twitter It's my hand all there But you know my view for today is it could get quite interesting and it's already kind of shaping up in that way Certainly the US will really be when they come in whether or not it does materialize But could this be the straw that breaks the camels back in a way that not just a little bit more Change now towards the multiplication of other cases outside of mainland China But with the US remaining pretty assertive Which I think is also a little bit of a shift in that a different direction Are we ripe for a bit of a Pullback inequities and already we can see we've seen some of that in Asia The one thing then that this continues to represent is you know, it's just such a you know in a medium term positioning It's such a good asset to be exposed to I mean this again is what's really fueling this gold move Is that you know the only way is kind of To become negative if you like with these news stories Earning season has kind of passed, but you know whether it's all those things we talked about yesterday from geopolitical tensions to the trade war to the virus It's just a lot of risks and particularly when an equity market is at all time highs in those conditions It is ripe for a bit of a pullback and that all of those metrics are just supportive For a further bid tone in that flights of quality move for gold. So, you know, could we see 1650 today? Sure, we could you know probability of that happening. I think I'm going to say it's quite likely I wouldn't want to just sit here now and just want to hit the high here right on the r2 because the moves are already being fairly Prevalent, but I'd want to see really going into the us session when volumes pick up and we go through the comics open How do equity markets behave Today on on the nizy I think it's going to be quite key on whether or not that materializes or not But yeah going into the end of the week just going to be interesting and and obviously the data coming out over the course of The session is going to be quite key and that being then I mean this is gold Um, the last time we had such a big blip in gold You've got to go back to the middle eastern the iran situation at the beginning of the year Otherwise we're heading for the biggest weekly gains in august of last year But the pmi data is going to be really key this morning and I'll quickly shift over to that because You know manufacturing activity Particularly german in europe is going to be very important Why well obviously it's a real key component not only for the german economy But for the eurozone's general performance overall and how much is that? You know supply chain being impeded by the nature of The virus and we've seen this in obviously chinese manufacturing activity, but how much is that for Reverberating across all these other countries globally, particularly those those that are very much based on manufacturing Exportation of their goods so The french numbers coming up shortly I'll probably cover that and hand over the sam in the next minute or so so that's Definitely going to keep an eye on the service number is expected at 51.3 the french manufacturing at 50 spot 7 So keep an eye on the euro bund and the dax the german number at half past now the german figure This is what it looked like last time. We actually were fairly robust albeit still in heavy contraction as we have been for the last 11 months essentially The reading actually pointed to the 13th straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector For germany last time out But if you actually look at the numbers for the german figure Manufacturing is expected to remain fairly suppressed 44.8 a range of 43.8 to 46 The service number still in expansion for the time being That then leads us on into the the uk figures We have had a really quite stellar Performance a lot of uk data on the back of the kind of election bounce if you like Manufacturing last time out came right on basically flatlining at 50 It was the strongest readings reading those since last april And if you look at the service number, I mean that was so impressive The last reading in uk services. PMI was the strongest pace of expansion since september of 2018 And obviously a lot of these were Kind of relief and the borris bump on the majority conservative election we had at the end of last year the question is How sustainable is that really huge pop that we had last time? That was at 53 spot 9 the expectation for today Is that that does tail off a little bit? But look at the range on the uk service PMI It's huge if you're used to looking at these PMI data sets that breadth of range is pretty big 51.9 at the low to 56 on the high very rare that you see that type of Kind of distribution if you like in the the surveyed estimates We get the same from the us and that's going to be key philly fed obviously smashed it out park yesterday But we're going to get the market manufacturing flash PMI the us at 245 French number just coming out. So let me just keep an ear on that see how this comes out So let me just cover it with you guys now Well, I'll put the score card services at 52 spot 6. That's a badly expected 51 spot 3 And comes it at 51 spot 9. It's above the expected at 51 So kicking it is that manufacturing has slipped into contractionary territory at 49 spot 7 But quite below the expected 50 spot 7 Yeah, so you can see the the nature of the euro quite jumpy there on that data But the german number Could be well could well be the dealmaker for some of the early morning direction so on those Numbers that have come out, you know the manufacturing as they said contraction animus on expectations 49.7 The service number though did beat expectations at 52.6 And remember the french composition of their economy is not the german Mold if you like So hence the reason why you've had this blip of volatility in the euro But no committed move because one offsets the other where it's a little bit more uniform in germany There's much more emphasis on manufacturing. So that figure coming out in about 14 minutes All right, sam give you the nod now to come over The final part from me on the calendar that I just wanted to cover off was there's quite a few speakers today all very much Centred around the federal reserve and all happening this afternoon So here you can see feds catplan Uh, and it's really kicking off after the open on the nizy feds brainard feds querida feds bostic all speaking So do make sure you have your calendars in front of you and you're aware of those those speeches as well And then finally one thing to look out for well two things to look out for on the weekend The group of 20 finance ministers and central bank chiefs are meeting in riyadh salvia rabia starting tomorrow And key on the agenda of course is what do they say about their thoughts on the impact of the coronavirus? At this point in time and what are their efforts both fiscally and monetarily to support the global economy and then second Keep an eye out for my macro menu. I will tweet that from my twitter account on my handle below as per usual on sunday All right back by popular demand. I'll hand you back to mr. North And I wish you a good session ahead. Thanks very much It's just very well from this data. We could see it Hello, and good morning. Happy friday. We'll have a quick look over The mark if you're just seeing I was just checking equities Globally at the moment and they're all coming to A level support how big that's going to be I think the time will will tell it's got a got a feeling that this could be a a decent day opportunities around To bring up the dow which you can just see Just coming down to 29 000 on the futures. Just bring the pivots on as well You've got the the dax as well Just found support You can see right on one of those lows here It's going to be relatively choppy but the low that we had back on the 13th Just bail tested that and you're getting a decent push already I think to the upside where could The next area of selling come in or where would the bears want to defend really the Low that we broke through this morning just above the s1. You can see Basically yesterday's low. We found a bit of support initially then came back through I mean Yes, if I put this on the five minute, you can see we're just coming into an area now where there was Some lows, but you've got the data coming out all through The next well 11 minutes and then 41 minutes away for the european ones Whenever you want to get too involved right here. I'm not I'm not too sure I think probably better waiting for yesterday's lows the s&p You can see not the biggest move this morning That's uh from the open still down 20 points or so not far away from it's low from yesterday as well So stocks moving lower in asian trade But that's really their first areas of support now Where you'd expect a bit of a bounce and if the selling is to continue That's probably going to happen a bit later on maybe let this data to come out as well euro stocks Similar to the dax coupon iron yesterday's low. We put this on the 15 minute You can see just above that s1 would be the area where if I want to get short That's where I'd Where I'd look to to get in from from there Elsewhere let's have a quick look over at gold You can see just finding a bit of resistance around that That r2 probably we're putting this on the weekly chart now On the futures just drag that to the right hand side and you can start to see some of these levels that We of course haven't been at for for quite some time now 16 19 traded on the on the futures on the weekly It's a very key level. I just mark up just a bit above here. You've got the Lows from 2012 december 16 25. I know obviously on the the futures you can see where we're through that But just on the weekly On the 16 minutes, so for about on the weekly you can see there's quite a lot of resistance around here So just be a bit careful. Maybe if I put it onto the daily chart Move it along. Yeah, it's going to be hard to really pick out these longer term levels, but on the weekly Um, you know, I'm just going to pop this into the chat just to say We're not too far away from reaching up to to these points 1700 of course is is what's been talked about, you know a lot This week can we reach it and it seems like it's on the way there I think it's going to be an interesting friday to see where You know do people want to obviously carry any of this risk over Onto the to the weekend and it might help go get that boost to 16 15 and beyond today But like and we're saying it's not okay for just getting ready to To to click on buy right now because of course it's on the r2 It's price, you know could easily just drift a bit lowered to be identifying Different areas of support and different strategies to get in And you can see if you mark up the low I mean the higher the day and then previous high at 16 34 You therefore now got a five buck range where you've got no interest in really getting into that trade whatsoever Moving over to the currencies euro. It's getting a bit of a spike on on that data. Of course been Okay, the german numbers coming out in eight minutes So let's wait and see what happens there the resistance level Friday uh first day evenings high just being tested around 108 80 Some nice opportunities to have got short yesterday on that r1 You can see drifted down basically then all the way to the that low of the day What an area of support this point is around 108 today yesterday Wednesday and tuesday It just can't get that daily close below if we do obviously just be aware of the completion of McCron's gap If you're bullish, I think you're really going to want to see price get above The higher we have from yesterday because at the moment it's it's pretty range bound It's bang in the middle of that range at the moment. I know yesterday. We had a decent spike higher in early trade once we broke out the The trend here you can just see Just roughly that trend there little pop through came back into an area of resistance and then let's drift it down Again probably would remove that trend channel now. It's just got a bit too choppy So opportunity wise I'd be looking for obviously this data to To come out do its thing and then re re-evaluate from there I do like the idea of if we can come back up towards 108 30 ones for an area of short or Really the continuation lower. I know it's been a choppy area on those low So I wouldn't have too many goes it if it doesn't work But at the moment you would just say it's range bound over the last two complete trading days and then today as well So can we get that short higher up potentially looking for something like that? But the data could obviously change things there the pound reaching Let's put this on the daily Another one of those loads. It's been a topsy-turvy Month or year should we say for for the pound you can see just been Pushing higher then coming lower then it's finally broken out this mini range And then we come down to test Almost to the lows that we had back in november unbelievably So a couple three days in a row to the downside. I mean that is the The area of support where I think if we just mark this up as a bit of a zone You're going to have a lot of potential buyers to come in on on the the idea that we're You know quite a way off then the the higher that we had from last year brexit talks Obviously march may start to just weigh on things before then But that could be a good value area to look for those longs Up to towards, you know, the one sort of 30 frees 34 areas again That's all and certainly what an area where I'll be looking at and if it does go below 128 and stays there Well, that idea is certainly wrong and we can look to to drift down relatively quickly You would say to around 126 the next sort of key level So the pound not saying anything like that is going to happen to date I think just the the little bounce we're we're having here I think you've got the r1 which looks quite nice with all of yesterday's Highs as well. I think that's a good area to to look for a potential short And above that I don't necessarily think we can get there, but I'd like the look of a 129 60 to the downside The lows that we had not too long ago from the morning Around sort of 128 90. It was also the initial low at a similar time Yesterday quite an important level line in the sand that if we were to get below there You may be a bit more comfortable about these shorts coming in. So just below the pivot I think you'd want to to see cleared if you get on trend line as well You can see that's more of an area now just from yesterday evening's lows. So below 128 90 I like the idea of a short and they are one I'll be looking for that as well Of course if these euro numbers are fantastic, it's going to drag the This pair higher as money comes out of the dollar probably all be a briefly oil yesterday Let's put this on the 240 because it's it's hit the target that the balls would have would have wanted yesterday Certainly medium term wise anyway. You've got those highs that we had back from the 26 and 29th helped Let me just put those pivots on helped by you know a break above 52 50 Also 51 held as a good layer of support But that's that push to that level now and and if we have these these virus fears really starting to pick up well Gold oil, you would say has got to come down. So I'm not completely confident I mean I was this time yesterday that we're going to go and go and 58 could come in and then suddenly the market Got a bit spooked yesterday. So if I'm looking to get long oil again, you know, I was I took took some off Just under well probably about by the time I got out around 54 14 would have been the equivalent on the futures I'll be looking to see what happens around 52 63 as an area But would I be buying today holding over the weekend? Probably not I think the the sentiment at the moment does seem a bit to the downside for for riskier Markets keeping on this trend line. I don't necessarily think that goes today But the the bears would get excited and be looking for for shorts towards the low of the year if that was Took on any questions as usual. Please do let us know I think it could have the potential to be a relatively interesting day, but If this week has shown people anything it's have your ideas and wait for them regardless if the market is is moving In an aggressive manner. I hope you'll have a good trading date and an even better weekend ahead