 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with myself David Madden Today's date is Monday the 4th of January 2021 and the time has just gone 1154 GMT and first things first, happy new year to one and all. Hope you had a nice holiday and things have gotten off to a fairly decent start in 2021 and I think I speak for everybody that we're glad to see the back of 2022. So because the topics that have been dominating this morning have been especially the same topics that have been dominating the markets in the back end of last year. A couple things that are doing the mix. The starting is a bit lower today but the British plan has had a decent run up until New Year's Eve on the kind of the final signing off of the UK-EU trade deal avoiding to have a no-deal type scenario. That benefit is starting in late December so we're seeing a bit of a pullback today. The weakness in the US and the weakness in the pound is giving a bit of it is also giving added health to the FTSE 100. What we're also seeing into the mix is the kind of continued positivity from US markets. US stock markets, Dow Jones and the S&P 500 set all-time highs, new all-time highs on New Year's Eve. We've had a kind of signing off of the stimulus package, $900 billion stimulus package over in the US. That translated into a positive session in Asia overnight with spilled over here. In addition to that, further good news on the COVID-19 vaccine front. Today the 4th of January, the vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford is being rolled out as of today. So the kind of the continuation of a growing feeling that the farmer sector is going to take in the fight to COVID-19. On top of that broadly speaking, the manufacturing PMI data that we saw from the European countries, Eurozone and the UK all showed growth on the month. The reports were nothing too exciting, but it shows that things are continuing on in terms of rebounding and nonetheless. For those of you who are familiar with the video, I did the usual structure whereby I run through the week ahead and then I'll cover the big markets, the big indices, the big currency pairs and finally the big commodities. So first thing's first, it's turning off the week ahead. The weekend article can be found on our website, you can go to cmcmarkets.com under insights and then under latest news and analysis. As I mentioned, we have the various manufacturer reports out of Europe, China overnight and Europe this morning. We have the service figures coming out on Wednesday. Looking ahead to tomorrow and Tuesday, we're going to have a quarterly update from Morrison's and NEXT. So basically the well-known retailers of the supermarket chain and the fashion house, but both there are quarterly numbers. She gives an update of how they fared in relation to the should be busy Christmas period. On Wednesday, we will have the Federal Reserve minutes from the most recent meeting in mid-December. As I mentioned, we're going to have the global services PMI data coming out on Wednesday. For countries like the UK, where the service sector is far bigger than manufacturing, that's going to be closely watched. On Friday, we have the all-important US non-farm payrolls report. Just to let you know, my colleague Michael Houston is going to be hosting a live webinar for that event. That can be found on our website. If you go on your insights and then webinars and events, you'll find the update. You can sign up for it here. It begins at 13.15 GMT on Friday, the 8th of January. Please feel free to sign up for that. And lastly, on Friday, we also have the quarterly update from Morrison Spencer, the well- known British retailer. So, once again, how they fared over the Christmas is going to be on Trader's minds. As I mentioned, we just saw a start to the European training session. We can see here, the FTSE 100 is higher on the session. We're not too far away from the highs that were achieved in the first day of back trading after the Christmas break. We've been trending higher the last few months. Obviously, the FTSE has been greatly lagging behind many of its likes, I'll say, the DAX and the US markets, which are coming to the moment. But nonetheless, the market is in a way a software trend. If you continue to press on higher from here, could be looking at targeting, this is over here, highs of early March in around 8,000, sorry, apologies, 6,891. Any move to the downside could find support in around this area here, just kind of 6,400. And if you go below that, we could look at potentially heading back down towards this area here in around in around 6,258. And this line, this support zone here, get the lows of mid-November, the lows of early December, it comes into that, that's where the metric comes from in around 6,258. It also coincides with this blue line here, the 50-day moving average. Now, just wait a minute here, bear with me one second, let's sort of just reshape my shirt, thank you very much. Now, on the 50-day moving average, we can see here, on a few occasions, that metric acted as both support resistance and support in an up to a distant past. And if a metric has been important in the past, it makes it make it more likely that it'll be of importance in the future to keep an eye out. The 50-day moving average is also coinciding with that area. Taking a look now at the germ market, the DEX, the DEX has set a new all-time high today. So the germ market has cleared the highs, we saw back in back in February last year when COVID-19 crisis was just about kicking off. We're currently, well, back below 13,900. So given the indication of how strong the DEX has been in recent years, so we're continuing to be in the kind of solid, upward trend. If it's presently or from here, the next big numbers back off will be 14,000, big psychological number. We're currently at 13,878. If we move lower, support could be found in this zone here in around 13,600. And if you go below that, we could be heading back down towards kind of 13,200. And if you go below that, we can then be heading back down towards the general 13,000 area. But also keep a map of this metric here, this line here, which comes into play in at 13,000 and 33, so just north of the kind of big psychological number of 13,000. Looking over what's going on over in the US, starting up in the Dow Jones, as I mentioned, we saw a record high being set last Thursday on New Year's Eve. The way things are shaping up in terms of the Dow Jones index future, we're looking at setting a new record high. We're currently expecting the market to open around 30,774. If you continue to kind of move on higher from here, 31,000 will be the next big number that traders will be looking at forward to the upside. Show you the floor from here, support could be found in around this zone here in around 30,271. And if you go below 30,000, we could be looking heading back down towards 30,000, you know, it's a big psychological number. And that's going to be the next area that traders will be keeping in our four. And even if you go below 30,000, it could then be looking heading back down for this area here in around hidden away behind the metric. Keep an eye for 29,461. So basically kind of coincide the lows of early December. Now turning our attention to what's going on on the S&P 500 similar situation whereby a record high was achieved on the receive we're expecting further gains to be made. We're currently expecting the S&P 500 to open at 3774. Should become a broader uptrend continue from here, we could be looking at targeting 3800. Any pullbacks could find support from the kind of the lows last week in around 3724. We have a fairly decent pullback. We could then like a heavy back down towards this area here in around 3600 coinciding there. They're about with the lows of early December and the lows of late November. Apologies, the lows of late December and also late November. Turning our attention to what's going on over the currencies, starting up at the pound dollar, as I mentioned at the top of the video, starting out a decent move to the upside last week, on the back of the kind of finalization that the UK and the EU signed a trade deal. So we hit a, well, and some of those gains were initially continued into into today's session, but they appear to have given back some of the ground. In today's session, we've hit in our fresh two and a half year high, I believe it's a 32 month high that was set. So pound dollars are clearly in a very strong upward trend. If you continue to press on higher from here, and keep in mind we're currently trading in around one spot 3600. If you press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting one spot 3792. Keep in mind that's a level that was last seen back in late April, late April 2018. So keep an eye out for one spot 3792 to the upside. If you do call back lower from here, we could be looking heading back down toward this zone here, this area here just north of 134 in around one spot 3429. And if you go below that again, we could really getting it back down toward this blue line here, the fifth day moving average, just north of one spot 33. And you can see a few occasions in the last few weeks, that once the fifth day moving average has active as support. Now, granted, it did trade a bit below it on on Monday, the 21st of December, but keep an eye out for that general zone as a potential area for support should we have a fairly sizable pullback in pound dollar. Now, sticking with the theme of the week, US dollar, we'll take a look at Euro dollar. So Euro dollar similar to pound dollars in the solid upper trend, the last few weeks in months. In fact, the highs that were achieved on your recently were once again, near enough kind of a two and a half year highs, there were levels last seen in I believe I think it was May 2018, the highs that we recently saw were achieved last thing. So we're talking at levels similar to pound dollar, we're looking at level last seen really since about April 2018. So similar situation, we're talking about two and a half year highs. So Euro dollar is in a strong, strong upward trend. If you continue to move on higher from here, we could have been looking at heading up towards, we could have been looking at heading up towards the highs of May, March 2018, in around one spot 2480. Any move to the downside could find support from the kind of this area here in around one spot 2190, one spot 2129, the lows of early December, well, sorry, the lows of mid December rather. And if you do break below that, we could then be looking at heading back down to the lows of early December and at one spot 2054. And if you go below that, we could then be looking heading down towards 120, that'll become the next big psychological number on the way down. What's interesting is that after the kind of the fresh two and a half year highs were achieved on Wednesday, on Thursday, last last week, New Year's Eve, we had a bullish, this candle here that had the potential to be a bullish, rather bearish rather bearish daily engulfing. But notice how the market bounce back today, we're well above the lows of the of the of that of last Thursday. The highs that we've achieved today on the current level that we are at now is well above the highs of the of the open of the session. So it seems to me that that the this seems to be a bit of a blip for the time being and especially if you take out the highs of Thursday, we can be more confident at the broader upward trend of the last few weeks and months is going to continue. Now take a look at commodities, if you're going to be trading gold or in the metals keep and I was going off the US dollar, as we just saw in pound dollar and Euro dollar, the dollar has been fairly weak. We're talking the dollar index has been at its lowest level in about two and a half, two and a half years. So it's not not a huge surprise that we've seen the push higher in gold today. Gold is at its highest level since early November, even broad even pushing higher high higher low higher high higher low higher high. We've been an upward trend for the last month. If you continue to move on higher from here, we could be looking at tracking this zone here in around 1973, the highs that highs of mid November, which isn't too far away from the highs of early November through the highs of mid September, rather, which is a bit higher in the highs of early November. So keep an eye for 1973. If we go beyond that, we can then be looking towards 2000 will be the next big, next big level to keep on our for if we do see a bit of a pullback in in the gold market, support could be found from this yellow line here, the water to move the average in 1895. 1895 is just below the kind of 1900, which is a big number. But also, if you notice that on a few occasions, we saw a big acceleration, we saw that metric not too long ago, act as both support and also as resistance in the last few weeks and months. So with that, the fact that only moving average acted as support back in September, we saw some consolidation around it in October and very recently it acted at the resistance and support to keep an eye for that level. If you have a fairly decent size move to the downside, support could be found from this red line here to the movie average at 1830. And lastly, coming on to today, the market of the day coming on to Brent crude oil, the cash market, keep on keep on our for OPEC plus headlines, the organization is meeting today. In relation to in relation to demand output for February. There is some talk that Russia want to want to increase supply again, supply was increased from January onwards. But then again, you know, we haven't really heard much from Saudi Arabia and they're sort of the de facto leader of OPEC. So keep an eye on that. But nonetheless, today's today's all market is off the highs of the session, but so very much in the kind of wider upward trend of the last few weeks and months. The high that was seen today was the highest level seen since March. So we're talking, you know, now going on to 10 month highs. The market seems quite decent position. If you continue to press on higher from here, we could be looking at targeting the highs of late February and 54 spot 28. Any move to the downside could find support from the lows of you know, just just you know, Christmas week roll up on the Christmas in around 49 spot 18. And if we go below that, you can end up getting back down towards the lows of early December in around 46 spot 74. That's all from me this week. Thank you for listening. Have a good training week and good luck.