 Okay, traders, that is 2pm UK, British summertime. We are going to get rolling here. Before I start, if you can just let me know if you can hear me loud and clear and you can see the welcome screen if you just type of why into the chat box so that I know we are we're good to go. Great stuff. Thanks very much. Okay, so before we jump into today's live market and trade analysis session. Important as always that we adhere to the risk disclaimer, specifically for today's the views expressed by me as told in mind they're not indicative of all representative of those held by tick mill UK or Europe limited. I was here for the first time brief introduction to myself my name is Patrick money and after I graduated from King's College London, I joined the city PLC consulting firm, I left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co found and exit a consulting startup, which was focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially, I had a front row seat to the door on witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets quite literally at times overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands I started day trading the S&P 500, or probably more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginner's luck run outs and as the market phase changed, I began to average down into positions giving back essentially all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant. This was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and other statements, I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living for the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and source out a mentor with an excellent trading track record, working with my mentor for a period of 18 months to two years, it was a time during which. Not just my technical game in terms of research and developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to become purely process oriented. What does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process oriented and have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game, which you're simply playing the games, you really lose that emotional investments and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trade through even a string of trades my focus on the next 100 trades. So I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing multimillion dollar portfolio. So 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to re-consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm engaged in some other market oriented projects. I'm currently a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to TICML, providing an in-depth daily market outlook, breaking down fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for two to three markets, which are recorded as the TICML chartets you can access those through my LinkedIn or through my Instagram feed. I also run and manage the rapidly growing TICML E-mini strategy group where I provide a daily specific trade plan with intraday trade updates and alerts. Since its inception in April of this year, I've delivered over a thousand points of upside. The TICML futures group is here. You can see where I provide the updates into the group. I also provide research from various investment banks and tier one trading desks. And like I say, I provide a daily video specific trade plan for the US cash trading session. We're actually providing a two week free trial to that TICML futures and options group. I'll put the link into the chat for those that are interested in taking advantage of the trial. You can just send a request to that link there and you can join us for the daily trade plan and strategy. In terms of the other guest passion project is really leading trading education for a premier trading education brand called FXQueerSwap.com. We offer development and funding to retail trading talents at FXQueerSwap. We don't just develop a retail trader's market and trading strategy knowledge. We work on mindset development through a structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. 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Now what I want to do is jump into the charts and review where we're up to also look at potential setups that are developing currently in the markets and we will see what opportunities are around. So I'm sitting here with the S&P 500, a really critical juncture this week. I have, I've overlaid here some Elliott Wave analysis so I don't want to get too bogged down in that. The focus on here is the idea that we are at say pretty pivotal juncture here. We've come down this week and tested the monthly pivot at the 4480. We tested that this morning. And we since then we've seen a bit of demand come into the market. And I'm actually looking now for the S&P to make one more high here. And why I'm looking for that additional high is that we have an equality objective, an equal legs objective and I'll draw this in for you so you can see exactly what it is I mean. We have this swing off the load here coming into this high which I've labeled as the major wave one so you can see, we had a nice subdivide one two three four five, and then we have maybe see correction. If we overlay that swing versus the corrected low there, which we're laboring as a way, way to you can see that that gives us an equality objective at 4612 in the S&P 500. The correction we've seen this week, I believe is, is going to act as a way for low setting up now a move through back through the weekly pivot at 4530 to ultimately take us up and test this 4612 quality objective. And that's going to be a key decision point for the markets, because we still have a bunch of active divergence down here on the momentum studies. You can see we're heavily diverging we're making new we've been making new highs in price but we're not making anywhere near making new highs in terms of momentum. So what I'll be watching for is we trade into this 4614612 area will be bearish reversal patterns to ultimately set short positions to play for a way for corrective load back down into 4360. This is going to be a pivotal test for the market it's a third test. Sorry, it's the second test this major ascending trend line. We've obviously I've overlaid one to here the two swings there and extended that to the upside. And if we do if we clone that and we just join it to the, the blow here that we're trading off the pandemic low. So that gives us a projected support zone there coming in around 4380. And we've also got monthly range support projected range for coming at 4360 so that's going to be a pivotal zone. If we hold there, then there's the potential that we extend higher again to make a the major wave five high, which would be back up through into this 4640 4650 area. So for now the focus is going to be on watching for continued bullish signals to get that move up into the 4612 area. So that's why I'm watching the S&P NASDAQ. Similar story really anticipating that we have a an additional high to make the NASDAQ. So we've been trading right against this selling trend line resistance had a couple of shots at this on the short side and got got risk free positions but then got taken out. So now I'm looking for a fifth wave extension here to to put us up into a weekly range resistance and that second time I'm assistance. So what should bearish reversal patterns there to set short positions to play for a correction down into this, certainly this initial, the initial target will be a move into the 15,200 level. Then ideally we see a three way correction taking us down into that 14,750 for then the market reach another decision point and see if the balls are going to step back in. It's, it's proven a little bit weaker than the other indexes this week we've come into monthly range support here and we're finding finding a bit of a bit, but whilst we hold resistance now at the 16,000 level I'm looking for another side to test this support zone at 14,847 and then from there, we'll have the potential to put in a way for low and then extend up into a fifth wave objective, which will actually see us into this ascending trend line resistance and an ending diagonal as high just at 16,000 and then from there, we can see a more sustained corrective move in terms of the DAX so key areas to watch are going to be resistance at 16,000, and then support back into this 15,000 area set long positions, targeting the fifth wave extension up into that 17,000 zone. This one has shown some real strength here. I was looking for the Nikkei to hold its ascending trend line resistance, but we broke out. We have the resignation or of PM Suga in Japan, and that's been seen as bullish. And so now what we're looking for is the potential for a significant double top to develop here. We have, you can clearly see a one, two, this is a potential three, four, and I use the fifth wave as an equality objective versus way one, overlaid from our way four, which will actually put us into a pretty significant potential double top. The only thing that is a little bit concerning with respect to calling this a double top is that the momentum studies have actually made, making new highs here. And so it could be that we are in the process of putting in a meaningful low and they are actually going to extend to the upside once we correct this initial advance. So keeping an eye on the Nikkei, the Nikkei strength here and absolutely essentially is going to be how we trade at these highs, the 30,737 level. If we break through there and continue higher, that's going to have significant implications for other equity indexes, and I'll update those through the daily videos, depending upon how the price action plays out as the Nikkei tests into the resistance zone. The VIX volatility index is rising and I've been talking about this most of the summer, looking at the price action that we saw in this period here, we tested extended out pullback and then really got the extension. I wouldn't be surprised to see this VIX pop, especially once we get that next new high in the equity indexes and start to sell off. This rising VIX is a warning that investors are certainly becoming a little bit more concerned about portfolio exposure, and as such are applying protections to the portfolio. Dollar index. So I was looking this week for this resistance zone at the 93 area to hold and get another leg lower here in the dollar, looking then for this 92 and this ascending trendline support, still looking to carve out a major wait for high here. I guess the only caveat to that is, if we take out this trendline support, so if we do roll over from here, then what we've been looking for would be a three wave corrected move. So, again, using that initial decline versus the swing high here. So we could actually see price extend down into this 91 handle also got monthly range support there before once again trying to make another leg to the outside to complete the major way for into the input, just above the 94 handle. However, if we lose monthly range support at the 90 90 level, that would then suggest that we actually have our way for high in place, and that would lead to the dollar index to extend down through the lows, the prior lows at the 89, 89 30 level on route to the ideal 87 50, which is a weekly downside objective let me just put weekly chart here dollar index and see exactly what it is I'm talking about here. This is the weekly chart of the dollar index and what we're looking for is this is the big ABC objective quality objective I'll just draw that in here. We're going to have this when high into this way low. A, and I will use this will be and I'll see target is actually down at the 87 50. So if the dollar index does start to roll over here and we've got weekly momentum starting to turn, then we, the downside objective is going to be 87 50 that will obviously have major implications for the effects majors but for now, the attention is going to go on whether we can hold the pitchfork support here that's coming in, just below 92. We fail there then we have an equality objective which would see us down to the 91 handle below 91 would be a significant bearish development and suggest that we're going to trade, we're going to go down to the downside us 10 year yields. Obviously, inflation, the hot topic. I'm looking I'm still looking for another leg lower before we can see a potential extension to the upside, you'll see the similarities here to the price action that we witnessed in 2017. So the last big jump to the upside that we have in terms of the yields. I'm still looking for us to test this major ascending trend line support and the yearly pivot from above there just about 1% in terms of yield. And then I think we can see the extension to the upside replicating this price action that we saw over there in this channel here. And still see that potential that we can extend to the upside in terms of yield and obviously gain that extension would have implication for equity markets risk sentiment and the dollar index and dollar majors gold. What I'm looking for now is support to hold here in and around this one, one, sorry, 1780 level for another leg of upside to test this ascending trend line resistance 1853. And then from there, I think we can see an extension to the downside. We do have an equality objective versus this major swing structure here. So I'm going to draw it in for you so you can see exactly what I'm talking about. So we have this swing here into that swing high and that has an equality objective down at 1552 in terms of gold. So it's going to be pivotal to see how we trade on any test of the 1853 as to whether or not we're going to see another dynamic in terms of gold. Looking for silver to hold the current highs and get a retest of this 2230 area already down into extending to the spike loads there at 22 handle for we see a another reversal to the upside to range resistance in terms of silver. So we're going to see an extension price actually carefully here. See if we can get an extension through this support zone at 2370 to target 2230 and then we can look for the reversal crude oil. So Cruz held its equality objective to pretty much to the tick that it's 255 we're now trading at resistance here just below 7050. So this is going to be our way for low we look for a clean break of this trend line resistance, and that would then give the green light to long positions to ultimately look for an extension up through the prior highs at 77 to target a minimum upside objective of 2334. However, if we can't get a clean break here of the trend line resistance, there's the potential that we do a double correction and have to go a bit deeper to find to find fresh buyers in terms of crude oil but for now, let's see if we can get a close through the trend line and then that sets that gives the green light for long positions and an extension to the upside in terms of crude oil copper. So we're going to have to keep the computers running a little bit slow today. Copper could have completed an ABC here, although I'm looking for resistance to come in at the 4.455 level and see another leg of downside I'm looking for a test of the 3.855 support zone before we see the way for low in place and or major way to low and then we can see the upside. So it's going to be pivotal to see how we trade this trend line resistance, or if we lose this trend line support as an early warning that we're heading down into the equality target Bitcoin. Now there's a couple of scenarios here that I'm watching with Bitcoin. We've got this trend line resistance now let me just bring this in. So you can see that this leg to the downside had impulsive qualities potential fifth wave. What we could be seeing here now is that Bitcoin has completed a interim. So we've traded up into the equality objective, the target zone here between 50 and 54,000 seen a decent sell off. Now we're either going to do one of two things we're either going to have a three wave correction here that holds the support down to 40,500. If it does, then that would suggest that we'll see an extension to the upside with Bitcoin, and we'll ultimately looking for a test of 75,000 projected ascending trend line resistance. Or we've got, we've got another scenario that could play out here if we can't take out that trend line resistance, then we had a bigger ABC target now. So if this move starts to become impulsive doesn't look like that at the moment not seeing much follow through yet but if we do, we could actually be looking down to 17,400 as correcting this entire advance here. And then we get the next leg of meeting the upside so it's going to be pivotal to see, can we reclaim 54,000 level if so, I'd say that's a green light to the upside and target 75,000. So if we fail here at the current quality objective at 40,000 level, then look out below certainly we can see 33,000 and like I say 17,400 would be the downside objective versus the current swing structure. Looking for an inverse head and shoulders to play out here, I think we could see one more load, so I'm just going to scroll this in here like so, so one more low into this support zone. And if that holds and we see bias step in and certainly we can think about a test of this descending trend line resistance, and maybe something more meaningful up into these prior highs there at 6.8, 6.58. I am the dolly one obviously the dolly, dolly mix feeding into that. Dolly yen, not doing much of anything really sideways market at the moment. And so I'm sidelines no real setup as such, watching this ascending trend line support as long as that holds and I think we can still grind up to test this 112 so nothing of real interest there. I highlighted this potential for this box trade to play out and and currently we're tracking it pretty nicely so what I've been watching for with the Suisse here is any move into this pitchfork support so and this prior lows so in 1996, what's a bullish reversal patterns there was an opportunity to get in on the long side, certainly to target the 90 to 1993 area as resistance, but any loss similar to the dollar index story any loss of this support here, coming in at from 1990 area would suggest that we actually have a meaningful high in place, and we're going to extend down into the support zone here. 89 85 is the next downside objective, that would be a pretty pretty bearish developments and suggest that we might be heading much lower and obviously that would have been that would be driven by by the dollar index. I think we're looking now, probably at a, another leg here to the downside before setting up what could be a nice inverse head and shoulder scenario in terms of the dollar cap and immediate, immediate trade set up to me there. Singapore dollar, similar story here. This one could, this one could set up in the coming days. I'm going to be watching really closely how price responds on a test of this ascending trend line pitchfork support coming at 13390. I'll be watching for daily bullish reversal patterns or four hour bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, looking for an extension to the upside in terms of the Singapore dollar. And again, that's the you know this pattern is going to be pivotal. The dollar index movie is going to be pivotal to whether or not that that moves out euro. Looking for support to hold here in an around 1775. And ultimately what I'm looking for is a test of 120 as a significant decision point so seeing a bit of bullish reversal here we've got nice positive psych. So, we'll be watching if we get back through the weekly pivot one 1860 that warrant long positions targeting that 120 move. But we might be that we have to double correction and get this inverse and shoulders scenario playing out at 1760 first so we'll have to see how it goes there. Again, looking for an inverse head and shoulders so as we hold this trend line resistance looking for extension down into a certainly the pivots and weekly range support cluster there 12940 but ideally, down into this 12860 and then watch for bullish reversal set long positions in terms of the euro yen. I'm going to win through a few of these now as we're coming close to the end of the time here. This is the one trade I've got running at the moment I in terms of effects is the is the cable here. I'm looking for a move up into this one 140 area, and then from there we'll see if sellers are going to step back in. I've initiated that earlier today through 13780 it's risk free and running some some decent profits at the moment but I mean look that's my targets on there on cable up into the 140. The other ones that I'm going to be watching tonight are the Kiwi. This is starting to look pretty bullish here in the Kiwi. So what I'll be watching for tonight is can we get a close back through this descending trend line resistance. We've got sight that's breaking out here from from its resistance and looking to test and break highs here. So if we can get a nice bullish candle that closes above 7145 7150 and that's going to be a signal for me on the long side and I'll be looking for prices to extend up and targets to move into monthly ranges that well firstly weekly range resistance 7253 and then on to 7316 is what I'll be watching for there. So we have a similar story in terms of the Aussie looking potentially here then inverse and shoulder scenario to be pivoted on to how we trade again if we can get a bullish reversal here through the weekly period at 74 and then it can we take out the resistance 7450 that could be a meaningful inverse and shoulder scenario similar to that of the Kiwi but we'll have to see the Aussie a little bit weaker than Kiwi at the moment and that brings us up to our mark so essentially what I'm looking at as we as we go into the next few sessions is can these equity indexes certainly the S&P holds its current lows and make that fifth wave extension up through the 46th handle that should weigh on the dollar index, keep the dollar weighted and we should see support then for the risk currencies the sterling euro Aussie and the Kiwi. That's that's what I'm looking at over the coming sessions and what I'll do over the next few days I have got a bunch of yen charts that I want to cover. What I'll do is I'll post those as chart hits tomorrow, showing you some of the setups and the levels that I'm watching in the end there are some interesting areas of interest and opportunity in the ends but I just didn't have time to run through that today. So just briefly now let's just open up Q&A here if you have any questions or a chart you want me to quickly take a look at that I haven't covered, feel free to type that into into your into this chat box or into the Q&A. I've got a question here. Hello, can you please highlight when you where to enter a trade and where to place your stop was, I'll give you an example, a real time example from this morning. This one. So this is, this is the setup I took in cable this morning. So this, this candle here was the candle that suggested that we're having a bullish reversal pattern from the four hour chart obviously here. I played the break of 3780 and I use that my stock was just below these wicks here at 3750. So it's basically risking about 35 pips, because I thought that if we extend through there then it's likely we're going to retest these loads and maybe extend down into this week range support so the the entry was 3780 to stop just below the swing low there at 3750. Does that make sense? Any other questions? Equally if you don't have a question if you type an N in the chat box so that I know we're on the same page and I can wrap this one up for this week. Be sure to take advantage of the links that I posted in the chat there to join the Tick Mill Futures Group and the Trader Blueprint Strategy Group. Great communities, great information, and great learning and support in both of those groups. Okay guys, I'm going to wrap this one up here as always traders plan the trade, trade the plan, most importantly manage your risk. I can't find the link. Okay, let's see. So here is the strategy, the Tick Mill Futures Group. And this is the Trader Blueprint. Okay, hopefully you can see those links and I'm going to wrap this one up here. Thanks very much everyone, I hope this helps.