 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim sawness and dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread? That's right here on the fan duo podcast network and number fire dot com where today We are previewing week 17 in the NFL with Brandon gandula of number fire breaking down the NFL model He has been building and also his favorite bets for week 17. My name is Jim sawness I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joint here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over the power rank calm ed week 17 is on tap. How you doing today? I'm doing pretty good trying to figure out who's gonna play with some vigor this week and uh, You know who who might not so yeah There's a week 17 is always interesting So we'll see I don't think this year is gonna be any different one of the teams that does have to play You know it's with some something on the line is washington but washington just released the guy who started their week 16 game dwayne haskens and Some vindication for dr. Eric eager who was not super ion haskens coming out You know that certainly has played out well for him I I think that that was it was in part based on the play for for dr. Eric eager and a lot of Uh, the haskens stuff was based on off the field stuff, but sure that aside It is wild that haskens that situation was so bad that they released him Despite the fact Alex smith is still not healthy and the only guy they have on the roster outside of him Is a guy who was taking like online classes and was washington's quarantine quarterback like a couple weeks ago like It's crazy that this that the situation got so bad that they flat-out released him with a must-win game on coming up this week Yeah, I've heard things like it was it was a way of uh, it was kind of a power grab by reverbera or whatnot But you know clearly haskens was having issues both on and off the field So yeah, it's kind of a weird time to give up on the guy You know, I mean at least he's useful as a backup You know phalloch smith could play But I guess I guess you're going with uh, you know the the practice squad the quarantine quarterback Yeah, the quarantine quarterback a phrase we never thought we'd use but is now hyper relevant here in week 17 So that tosses an extra funkiness into the equation here And we're going to talk about the funkiness with brandon gedula if you are a regular fan dual podcast network listener You know that brandon is my co-host on heat check fantasy podcast our daily fantasy podcast We're going to talk nfl modeling from a betting perspective with brandon for week 17 Talk with motivation talking about weeding out most relevant samples and get his favorite bets for week 17 You can follow brandon on twitter at gedula 13 if you're listening on uh earlier than friday Make sure you check out our college football betting preview with drew martin We had him on to preview the college football semifinals talking alabama noda dame in ohaios day clemson Drew also had some thoughts on other bowl games So you can find that by searching for recovery in the spread wherever you get your podcast and while you're there Leave us a rating and review as well Make sure you are subscribed because we'll have podcasts into the postseason We'll talk the college football national championship game As well as uh the playoffs later on as well Still a lot of good stuff coming your way throughout the year for the uh covering the spread with the nfl and college football But before we get to brandon for week 17, we got to go back to last week We had drew dinzagon to preview week 16 the nfl and uh it was a weird week where a lot of bad news broke against us Covering the past All right last week here on covering the spread We had drew dinzagon to preview week 16 Check him out on the deep dive podcast and find him on twitter at whale underscore kappa He started things off on friday He wanted the under for viking saints at 51 and a half and it closed at 50 The saints actually at the over by themselves. What a what a way to start the week and uh Pretty telling for how things went for us across the board in week 16 They won 52 to 33 alvin chimera scored six times could have scored a seventh time Drew brie said that alvin chimera was on his son's fantasy football team Wish i'd known that beforehand drew thanks for the tip man. Appreciate it. So Exactly Just a wild start I know i have a friend that had alvin chimera all year And then he scores the six touchdowns this week when he's not in the final or semifinal or whatever it was for his fantasy league So there is uh, there is like an industry-wide league called the scott fishbowl where it's like I think 1200 or 1400 teams and you have like conferences and stuff like that and you keep advancing I made it to the semifinals and Dropped a total dud there. I think I got negative points out of mike glennon Which is not usually how you want to play things. Um, and so I got eliminated But I had alvin chimera and I also had I think I had mike evans He also went for like 40 points this past week and uh, It would have been it would have been nice, but it was not to be done So alvin chimera scoring a lot of points in a non non relevant way for me In that one on saturday drew at the cardinals minus four and a half against san francisco. We talked about how The 49ers didn't really care they were sending their guys home for for christmas because they'd been stuck in arizona for so long And the market agreed because that one closed at six so one and a half points movement in favor of drew there And You know it did move, but the cardinals just played bad Kyler Murray got hurt again 49ers won that one 20 to 12 Like I think the handicap in the thought process was right and the market agreed with him, but like The cardinals just kind of sucked in that game. Yeah, they couldn't stop san francisco the run game So yeah, everything kind of went bad there Yeah, it was again emblematic of how the whole week went for us like it was a weird week Later that day drew us on the over for the raiders and dolphins at 47 and a half This one did break well Closed at 50 so a lot of movement in his favor there The raiders got to the over with 19 seconds left by kicking a field goal They decided not to go for the touchdown kicked a field goal I'm sure drew was pleased his punch with john gruden for doing that But then the dolphins spun a miracle to push to even higher finish at 51 points So win for drew there I don't know I don't know. I think like what john gruden said after was that The odds that they pushed down the field in the score in those final 19 seconds Weren't that high so I Yeah, I think like The thought process I can understand it, but it doesn't mean I agree with it I don't know if I agree. So I Live when I was watching it. I was kind of like, oh, that's interesting. Yeah But I think in the postmortem, obviously, you know, you don't want to have some kind of confirmation bias because Miami came down and And like, I mean, I don't know how Fitz magic pulled through that pass right on the money with his head getting twerked like that But think about it this way, right? Like you want to run the clock down So you take a knee, right? But you would actually run a couple more seconds off if you ran a run play just right up the middle And it doesn't have to be fancy if you don't get it whatever you you kick the field goal I think it's kind of inexcusable to not try for a touchdown Well, I think the very interesting component to this too is that the dolphins said afterwards they were trying to let the Raiders score so That says to me that The dolphins had a similar thought process like They wanted to maximize time Rather than the points So, I mean, I I understand that the Raiders defense isn't that good, but like if you can't hold Miami The length of the field for a touchdown within a minute, right? Probably don't deserve to win the game. It did take a miracle to Break things that way, but like that can happen against that defense. So I don't know. It's uh, I understand where he was coming from But it's very easy to question that in retrospect and it ended the Raider season So it kept the dolphins alive for week 17 as well. I'd love to watch them in the playoffs personally I might be the only one but I think they're a fascinating team. So I might be alone on this island, but I think they're great Both drew and you had interest in the Rams Seahawks Drew had the over at 47 and a half You had the Rams plus one and a half and the spread did close right there The total moved up a half point But the Rams offense is rough Jared Goff got hurt, which is just great Didn't help either of you there. So the Seahawks won a low scoring game 20 to 9 like just another weird game and It's so hard to figure out this dumb Rams team that I want to like and A lot of numbers have liked for a long time But like they just they have these stupid stupid clunker games that just they're they're very hard to predict where they come from Yeah, exactly. I mean we have teams like the Rams in Tampa Bay that kind of go from week to week and there's not much consistency Um, you know didn't help that the Rams couldn't punch it in when they were on the one yard line I think they had more yards than the Seahawks. So it's not like this, you know, it's not like it was a lopsided game by any stretch but Yeah, frustrating one. So Yeah, the the thumb injury did not help either with golf In the third quarter. I was on the wrong side of late breaking coven news So we all just had a blast this weekend I had the over on 47 and a half for the Jets and the Browns And the thought process for me was that the Jets offense Would be able to score points and they did they put up 23 themselves That's good But the Browns were missing their top four wide receivers due to coven I knew they're right guard to be out why a teller sounded like he'd be out the whole time So I was accounting for that But then on sunday their left tackle gets rolled out too So the Browns played this game without their top four wide receivers without their left tackle And none of which was known at the time the game still could have gone over if the Browns had moved the ball Like if they had scored In on their final drive It would have brought the game to 46 points and it would have gone to overtime As long as it's not a tie. I would have still gotten the over at 47 and a half Baker fumbled, uh, it finished at just 39 points. So a brutal week across the board And I just I want weeks week 16 to to fade off into the abyss as quickly as possible Just wash our mouths of whatever that nonsense was and move on to I'm sure what will be an equally frustrating week 17 Yeah, well at least drew gave us one winner. So so we can uh At least we have that we weren't fully blanked. Uh, just that jets game, man It was it was so so dumb, but Regardless kudos to the jets, I guess on Not getting Trevor Lawrence. You you did it. Congratulations there We're gonna try to move forward week 17 here in just one second But first with the college of football playoff on the horizon Fandall sportsbook is making sure you have the opportunity to get in on the action with the best possible odds right now New users can wager up to five dollars on any team to advance to the national championship game at plus 2,500 odds that is right a five dollar bet on Clemson Notre Dame, alabama or ohio state can win you 125 dollars on new year's day The semifinal games are just a few days away So download the fandall sportsbook app and make your first deposit to see the enhanced odds today Must be 21 plus and present in new jersey, pennsylvania, illinois, colorado, west virginia, tennessee or indiana new users only Must wager on the designated boost market deposit required max bonus 125 dollars See full terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or in colorado call 105 to 247 hundred in west virginia visit 1 800 gambler dot net in indiana call 1 809 with it or in tennessee Call the tennessee redline 1 800 889 9 7 8 9 Let's bring on brandon gedula right now. He is the managing editor of number fire dot com We're going to talk week 17 in the nfl and get his thoughts and we can find some betting value and figures to be a wild week Covering the present Let's bring brandon gedula into covering the spread to preview week 17 in the nfl brandon And it is strange to talk to you On this podcast as opposed to our other one. How you do it today? You feel like an intruder here. This isn't this isn't our territory This is like when when your uh, your high school friends meet your college friends Like I know you've you've talked to ed because we've had you on the podcast before but it's like It's that weird crossover. You're like, oh man, like it's ed gonna, you know Is ed gonna hate my friends is brandon gonna hate my friends like I don't know like i'm just very nervous Like I got to make sure you two interact well Yeah, I'll pretend like I have both high school and college friends for the for the sake of the 64 I don't think that's your problem. We've done this before Exactly. We had brandon on to talk golf. Yeah, you're out, you know at that party so This is like the second coming of love of meeting college versus me the high school friend, I guess Exactly, exactly. So we got to get brandon in here to talk some nfl We had out of on to talk golf previously and brandon What better time to have you on the week 17 where nothing really matters, you know at least there are some games that are that are up in the air here, but um initial thoughts for you on week 17 At least looking at things this this at least to me There's not a ton to like from a betting perspective. Are you getting kind of a similar vibe from this one? Yeah, especially if you come at it from like a data and modeling standpoint because it's really hard to adjust for motivation level and Determination and what teams want to do. Um, honestly I would I would like have the jets worse like toward the end of the season But they they're on a two game win streak. So, you know anytime I don't really have a good feel from something from a data standpoint You know the good part about betting is you don't you don't have to bet every game. So yeah, that's always helpful Well, brandon, we had you on to talk golf before I know you've been working on a college basketball model Which maybe we can talk about uh at some point as well later on but also You're building on an NFL model and I'm sure a lot of our listeners have thought about this too trying to build out their own NFL models to You know streamline their process from a betting perspective in the future But you've been going through that process recently and I wanted to have you on here to talk about What that's been like. What are some key components for you in building out this NFL model that you wanted to make Sure were included in order to make sure you were focusing on the right predictive metrics Yeah, so the first modeling I ever did was for golf and That's thinking about it. It's like a weird core. That's like a weirdly good corollary with the NFL if you think about it from an underlying data standpoint because If you study up on recent form and golf you often look at finishing positions, but Those aren't really the best way to identify recent performance because You can look past that you can look at stroke scan data Relative to the field you can adjust that for field strength. It's harder to do that with an eighth place finish With football, there's wins and losses There's points for points against but even those can be misleading if you don't look a step further You know, what's a touchdown worth if your defense forced to turn over on the opponents 30 What if your team's primarily putting up all those points in the fourth quarter in garbage time And like what if your team puts up a solid point total like 24 27 Against a team that's allowing like 17 or 18 per game. So that all matters It's not groundbreaking, but it's important. So The big thing I focus on when I do any modeling is I want to just Somehow for opponent strength for field strength in golf, but you know for football It's opponent strength to some degree and also look at more predictive stats than just descriptive stats So that leads me to number fires expected points model I'm sure you talk about that a lot, but if anyone's kind of New to an expected points model. I think the easiest way to think about it is ask yourself What's better a five yard gain or a 10 yard gain? The answer is actually that it depends if the five yard gain is on third and second moves the sticks It's a better play than gaining 10 yards on third and 15 One of those increases expected scoring significantly gets your new set of downs So that's that's kind of the purpose of a good expected points model So with that in mind I just these teams passing a rushing output Against a opponent expectation to figure out who's doing better than expected or not And you know, yes expected points don't count on the scoreboard But they can tell us what should have happened over a large sample Flukey touchdowns getting good field position That's like all accounted for in a good expected points model And nowadays anyone can get access to an EP model with a NFL scraper NFL faster pro football reference even has one It's a little more you can just go right there and kind of tabulate things manually So, you know, I don't even account for yardage or actual points But it's all the underlying data to figure out actual expected points So to conclude basically what I look for is opponent adjustments You know and and caring more about the underlying data than the actual points per game allowed Which can be kind of misleading I want to stick on this for a second because you talked about comparing it to golf and talk about current form in golf Do you wait more heavily more recent games when it comes to your NFL stuff? Or is it more looking at full season numbers because it is inherently a small sample in the NFL Yeah, it's always a small sample. Even if you break it down on a per play basis We're looking at like a thousand-ish plays, you know give or take for a team over a full season And if you're projecting something out, let's say week eight It's you know, 500 give or take plays So it's a small sample if it's not adjusted for opponents anything like that It can be really difficult. So I find it hard To kind of break that down even more whenever we're looking at a 16 game sample at best The the the best sample you can really get is 15 games going into week 17 And we know that there's a lot of issues with that So for me, I do, you know, I kind of Take a cue from you Jim. I'm looking at a most relevant sample So and they're gonna ask me about some of these games For this weekend and I think the most relevant sample At like a high level is what do these teams do when they're a certain quarterback is starting? I think that's the most impactful looking at passing offense passing defense rushing offense rushing defense Two of those matter a lot more than the other two and they're both passing related So I think quarterbacks tell us more than anything You know how a team might play Excellent. So when you're using number fires metrics, I thought the the opponent adjustments were already built in with The net expected points that that is on the site. Is that true or are you doing something above and beyond that? Um, it's true. We do have a adjusted Net expected points on the site, but I adjusted a different way for myself We also have raw unadjusted net expected points. So, I mean anyone can just go To the site and look up some some Opponent adjusted net expected points data, but I do it a little bit differently And it's just something that I've been messing with I would I would be Surprised if it's that significantly different the reason that I wanted to do it is break it down and find an actual expected points as in not net expected points But an expected actual on-field points per play and kind of run that regression and figure things out from there Well, I think the reason that's helpful You're doing it yourself too is because number fires metrics don't do it on a player level basis It's just for teams. So like for the Bears, for example, you can look at Mitchell Trabisky's schedule adjusted net expected points number Whereas if you look at the Bears that includes nick foals that kind of part of the reason for you too So you can actually get it on a more player specific level Yeah, that's a big part of it. Um, and like I said in in projecting out any games what I do Uh, the the only real adjustments I make, um are looking at anytime. There's a very relevant or very obvious discrepancy such as a Trabisky versus Nick foals And compare the Bears offensive output in game started by Trabisky and started by foals and figure things out from there So that's that's basically what I do it for primarily Excellent, let's talk about some games Somehow we're in week 17 and the Cowboys Can still make the playoffs. They're at the Giants. They're a three point favorite actually And the total is 44 and a half. They they had a pretty good showing last week against the Eagles What do you see happening in this game? So, yeah, I mean the the Cowboys had a big showing in that week 16 game and you know, Andy Dalton was really good He was the primary reason for it Almost 22 expected points added from his drop backs as a passer and based on how the Eagles have played all season That should have been closer to like six and yes, they lost Fletcher Cox But for me, it's really hard to get granular to that degree. So I can't factor that in because I can't factor that in For every single individual defensive player and sometimes we see, you know The first thing that comes to mind with trying to predict things out from a defensive player standpoint is that cornerback stats like coverage stats They're not that sticky year to year even week to week So I think that sometimes we can get a little overboard in predicting how a team will play with or without somebody But also for the Cowboys, it wasn't really just the past week that they've played. Well I have them as the 12th best adjusted offense since week 11 when Andy Dalton returned to the lineup It's more reasonable 18th overall and all of his starts. But if you look at his past six games He's had four of those with at least 0.2 passing that expected points for a drop back the NFL average being 0.13 The Giants are just 21st and adjusted past defense this season So I think there are still reasons to believe in the Cowboys offense and as Jim knows, they do have Michael Gallup Who's just a top tier wide receiver the best receiver in football naturally So obviously you have to account for that here. We talked about the Giants defense on the show before where they're built weird They they emphasize stopping the run They don't only care about the past and it's the same thing on offense for them And it's just kind of not a great composition. I think that makes put some in a tough spot here with this Cowboys offense Like you alluded to playing well So once you adjust your numbers to account for the Cowboys in their current state specifically With Dalton as their starter What are your numbers saying about this game whether it be the spread or the total are you seeing any value in these numbers? Not a lot of value. That's one of the reasons that I started with golf instead of NFL because I find NFL lines to be pretty efficient very often My model predicted the overrun her to be 45.2 So 1.7 points off the pace the spread prediction Was 1.3 for the Cowboys a difference of about 1.3 points there The Giants in game started by Daniel Jones right out as 28th in my adjusted offensive Efficiency metric, but they've also underperformed from a points per play standpoint in these games a little bit So it's kind of one of those spots where if you look at the actual points per play versus the expected points per play there is a discrepancy there and Using their points per play in that sample The over under and spread are projectable within about point two in my model So I think it's very close there So I think this might might be one of those spots where it does help to look at that underlying data So with that said if I had to bet this it would actually be on the Giants that cover the spread I don't personally think there's enough there for me to love it But that is where I see the most value based on my model Yeah, this is a tough week try to find some value So lean towards the Giants plus three but not one you're willing to fire on I'll talk here about the Packers and the Bears one of the few games this week where In addition to the Giants and the Cowboys Where both teams need a win and it's not one that includes uh, John Wolford versus potentially like Brett Hundley or something The Packers five and a half point favorites here the total is 50 and a half And I think the Bears topic is interesting here because of Trebisky They've been playing a lot better recently, but a big part of the reason they've been playing better Is schedule related so when you look at this Bears offense and what you would deem to be their most relevant sample What do your numbers say about them right now? So they're operating at about a top eight level In terms of points per place since Mitchell Trebisky's return Despite the schedule they're actually outperforming expectation, but Only just barely and as far as the passing net expected points go they've been about six points below the expected pace so Uh, they've really been boosted by the opponents that they've played in the stretch Trebisky's have been inflated right now at the moment They've just they've been just barely above the NFL average and Trebisky starts overall Based on the data that I look at but it's actually mostly from rushing and not passing which is something Trebisky helps with But as a passer, he's not necessarily Playing above the expectation that he should be based on his opponents. So I'd have to lean more toward, uh, some some, uh Negative regression I should say for Trebisky in the offense based on the fact that they're playing a top 12 adjusted past defense This week. So I'm a I'm a little bit, uh down on the Bears right now How much of a gap do you see between the numbers with foals and the numbers with trebisky? Do you think that it's worthwhile to throw out the full season numbers because trebisky's you don't have to pull up the actual stuff But like do you think that it's worthwhile to throw out the Bears full season numbers and focus on just trebisky Or is the gap small enough where we can still factor in the full season stuff? um for me, I like to kind of separate that out because surprisingly Uh, foals has just been substantially worse than trebisky this season Based on the data that that that I see so I do think this is one of those spots where You know, you can look at the full season. It's the larger sample of the two But is it the more relevant sample? Probably not. So I think a big question with nfo bedding On in modeling is how much do you adjust for a small sample? What is the most? You know relevant sample. What's the most predictive sample and you know that that can be that can be pretty tricky Yeah, that's definitely a tough one. All right So once you boil that down any value here on either the spread of the total with uh, 50 and a half as the total and five and half as the spread So the bears won this game in about 39 percent of my simulations with an expected spread of 4.6 points for the Packers if I use the data during trebisky starts, but if I use the full season data Uh, it's the expected spread is 5.6 points, which is nearly identical now to the Uh actual spread So I don't think I can go as far as to anticipate a bear's win, but it should be fairly tight I think it should allow them to cover. So if I had to pick a side right now, it would be the bears to cover Um, that's where I would lean Awesome. So we're in a state where we actually have to ask you about not one but two nfc east games Philadelphia Washington is a one point favorite with a pretty low total of 42 and a half Washington actually released dwayne haskins this week, which was Kind of surprised when your other quarterback is still hurt Uh alex mith may or may not play. What do you see happening in this game? Yeah, I mean With alex mith anyway, he's not been particularly good. Uh, his passing the expected points numbers are well off the league average. So um That's a problem. Uh, it doesn't kind of matter who they start. I think they have offensive problems, but you know The eagles are now eliminated. So it's one of those, you know, how do you factor that in in a model? You know to the degree that the eagles will play at their at their peak um In game started by smith or 25th in my model and expected points were playing that sample. So That's kind of tough. Um, you know To to believe in this offense. They've been kind of inflated uh for me all season not that Anybody's you know, you know pick to be the the best offense in the league or anything like that But I've had a hard time Believing in them for most of the season because their quarterback play Yeah, and that's justifiable Given the way things have gone does sound like alex smith will play So when you look at this number under the assumption that alex smith plays Any betting value for you and either washington minus one and a half or the total here 42 and a half Eagles play in spoiler at all or not so much Yeah, so using full season data, uh, the spread in the total or virtually identical to what my model would have predicted the the model's initial predict prediction for the total was 42.3 points With a 1.3 point advantage for the football team So pretty much identical, uh, both sides But if you look at the sample with jaylin hertz a quarterback and with alex smith A quarterback it rates out as about a pick them But the total is a bit higher at 46 points projected So it comes down to can we trust the smaller samples here or or not? Um, you know And there's also the question like how do you view motivation for the eagles versus a win In a clinch for washington So, uh, given that I'd have to go with uh, the the football team outright But I'd honestly be most inclined to bet the over honestly Okay, so over 42 and a half for washington against philly on sunday night football for brandon Any other games where you see some value for week 17? Like we said, it's tough To view it from a modeling perspective. I guess before we talk about that Are you Like are you inclined to bet games where you don't know the motivation? Or do you think that those are kind of frightening for you in trying to judge things like that? The way that I do things is I will just Stay away. Um, I'm okay with that There's a lot of other stuff that I like to model out and I have plenty of options That golf's gonna come back soon. So, um, I don't personally feel The the pressure to you know have action on every game, especially whenever It's less about, you know Hey, this game projects very close to the lines that I'm seeing and in more I don't know what to expect from you know from a motivation standpoint Okay, so with that in mind anything else standing out to you for week 17 So you guys picked out like the three Three of the most relevant playoff situations, uh looking at the other games where there's something relevant on both sides We have you know, buffalo in miami pittsburgh cleveland, but the Steelers are starting Mason Rudolph. So that's kind of tough But miami needs to win And if that happens and the Steelers win our tie the bills will become the three seeds So you know both games are at 1 p.m. So maybe the bills do play A little bit harder. That's just a tough situation. But uh and looking at that game Uh with data started with games started by two at tango by loa The anticipated over under for me is 47.4 the actual total is 47 and a half So that checks out the anticipated anticipated spread though 2.4 for the bills rather than four and a half and given that uncertainty and motivation for buffalo The importance of this game for for the dolphins. I'd probably Be very inclined to get miami plus four and a half Yeah, so if you can find miami still listed there's been some funkiness with that game recently because The once the Steelers announced that Mason Rudolph was going to start the bill's numbers kind of went wild So if you can still find a number on the dolphins, I think I'd agree I was running my numbers in that game and uh, they also agreed to bet miami But it you know, it depends into that book is it's still listed out your book because that one's been Kind of all over the map the past couple hours and I do have another This seems less of a model prediction and more of a sort of a god thing, but i'm special It's it's based a little bit, you know, it's based a lot in the model, but also just kind of you know The football is tough because there's the model and then there's the eye test and just kind of You know that so it's again, it's like golf a lot a lot more than it should be It's very volatile on like something like basketball, but um, I would say the over For the Titans and Texans at 56 is a very high total But both teams are top 10 and expected points were playing my model with the Titans being second We just saw the Texans get lit up by the Bengals And you know on the other side of things the Sean Watson still playing good football based on the the expected points data The Titans had scored 30 plus on their own and five straight before their snow game against the Packers Um, but the Texans are no Packers defensively There were 72 total points before overtime in their first matchup The Titans have nearly clinched the playoffs and they're about 94 likely to make it, but they can actually slide You know, they can be the fourth seed. They can be the seventh seed so anywhere so they should have some motivation that should probably play out and and Through scoring points against the Texans who should probably be able to you know, put some points up themselves Uh over under 40 fan dual points for Derek Henry Uh prop well That's that's that's close. I I put about 33 34 for the median projection 33 34 Okay, cool. I just want to make sure we're on the same page there That is brandon gedula. Make sure you follow him on twitter at gedula 13 and check out our dfs podcast Recording tomorrow on wednesday at 10 a.m. For week 17 talking playoff motivation We'll talk plenty about Texans and Titans there as well brandon. We appreciate the time Thank you so much. Good luck to you in week 17 both with your bets and with your dfs line So we'll talk to you again soon to get some some college basketball or some pga thoughts once again Thanks guys. It's always fun Covering the future Big thank you once again to brandon gedula for swinging by and breaking down week 17 the nfl You can find them on twitter at gedula 13 and check out our dfs podcast going up tomorrow to break down week 6 17 In dfs and uh, it sounds like brandon uses a similar method to ued when it comes to quarterbacks Where he's just viewing teams as being different teams And I think that's probably the right way to handle things because Of how different I mean how important the quarterback position is first of all But also how different teams can be operating under different guys Yeah, for sure. I mean my my method is more using market data and and then you kind of get a The game is a unit and you just you know, the market knows who's going to start And that's the opinion that they had of the game. It doesn't really matter if that guy got hurt during that game or whatnot That they're still an opinion. So um, yeah, that's that's what I do. I think it's pretty important Uh, it's an important part of making adjustments You know, I've been just this past week trying to figure out how to weight things more appropriately um, because Once you get a decent sample of games with the markets like, you know, like nick mollins for san francisco um, I kind of Go back to my original model But with that being the market component of it as well So and then there's a question of how do you phase it in? You know when when you only have like three or four games Which would you have with like alex mith and jalen hurts and in the washington versus, uh, philadelphia game So, um Yeah, so, uh, yeah, I think it's a good thing to do. I'm still working on it. Um And uh, I think these adjustments will be be more and more important Yep, and uh, they are proving as relevant as ever with like I think they showed us data that's been like 12 or 11 different quarterbacks We started a game for the nfce east I think it'll be 12 potential on sunday of taylor harickey starts so Obviously, we need to be making these new adjustments when it comes to quarterback play Well, let's we've been sure go ahead and another thing I want to mention is like, you know We got the big parts of the season without many qb injuries like obviously that went down And nick mollins was playing for jimmy g but it's only been the last couple weeks where it's you know, I mean, you know Sit down monday afternoon and just figure out what's going back with the quarterback situation Because obviously you have to change the you have to change the data depending on who's starting right so Um, yeah, so there's there's all that goodness Yeah, just a fun time all around making our job so much easier But with all this complicated news, let's move into covering the future for week 17 Ed you want to talk about that bills versus dolphin's game and It's tough to diagnose because we don't really know right now What the bills are going to do that number is down at quite a number of places is down in fangirl sports book right now But what are you seeing about this game when we factor in the uncertainty when it comes to the bills? Yeah, so when I was prepping for that my pot this podcast this week. I was like, uh, well, of course I mean there is an issue of motivation, but I didn't think it was a particularly big deal So buffles made the playoffs and they're playing for seeding If they win they would have the tiebreaker. They would clinch the number two seed in most years that means A week off which means a lot right to get a week off That's not the case this year With the with the extra wild card game So it doesn't have as much, but I still think they had plenty to play for Miami clearly has a lot to play for as well Um, because they have yet to to clinch a playoff spot So and when you look at these two teams, you know, you have josh allen continuing to astound everyone This season they he had a dominant performance against, uh new england Just I I can't imagine how Great it must feel for that buffalo franchise to pound the crap out of the new england team That's been just abusing them for so many years Um, but we had talked about josh allen, uh in the past I was not a believer at the beginning of the year, but there's really no way to to not acknowledge what this guy has done When I look at adjusted success rate on passing plays the bills are first So they've been great. Um, the defense hasn't been a solid They've been 23rd when I look at adjusted success rate, but at least they have They they have it right in that they're better against the pass than the run When you look at miami, they're just they're just kind of meh on both sides of the ball By my numbers the offense is 13th by my adjusted success rate as they continue yo yo back Between two atonga by loa and ryan fits patrick. Um, the defense is also the average right at 16th So, you know buffalo is the better team. They're playing at home. They have the better quarterback situation so If if they're going to play their stars if they're going to compete for that number two seed I would definitely take them, you know, um, you know, I've seen some threes three and a half's four even at four and a half I like the buff. I like buffalo in this game So basically what you're saying is keep an eye on the market If the book you are using puts the number back up for the bills and the dolphins and we get word That the bills are going to take this game seriously You're looking for a three or a four if you can get it out there for this bills, uh team Yeah, if you get a three, that'd be great. I mean my model makes the uh bills by five points seven points In this game to give you an idea. Okay, so keep a close eye on Your book of choice or books preferably of choice Try to see if you can get a number for bills versus dolphins If we get word the bills will be taking this game seriously playing guys like josh Balance to fond eggs, etc. Try to get the bills and see what number you can get because ed's numbers do like the bills there My cover in the future is in a game that is posted Thankfully because both teams are motivated to win and I want the packers minus five and a half and at one point It seemed like there might be motivation issues for the packers here but they have not like yet locked up the one seed for a first round buy and That's a situation where you are going to push and They won't know by kickoff if they have it so the packers are going to take this game seriously And play all out and they've got a lot of play for you So I think that laying five and a half with them against chicago is the right way to go This is a two-part analysis and the first one is that green bay is just I think they're a really good team personally They rank first and schedule adjusted offense according to number fires metrics The defense not as good, uh, which is a risk when you're laying five and a half because there is some you know Some backdoor potential or the potential of them to let chicago back in the game But the offensive gap here should be pretty huge The second is that The second part about this is that I still skeptical of chicago's offense because yes, they've been awesome recently They've been putting down some big point totals, but the defenses they have faced have been absolutely Wretched the past four weeks. Here are the rankings of the defenses the bears have faced in order They are 32nd 31st 24th and 29th They have faced three of the four worst or first Defenses in all of football the packers aren't great But they rank 12th defensively largely because of what they can do against the pass And we've already seen what they can do even with trabiski Back at quarterback because trabiski's first game back in the starting rule Was in week 12 against this very same packers defense and in that game the packers were up 27 to 10 a halftime They were up 41 to 10 entering the fourth quarter The bears did get some garbage time points in but they still lost that game by 16 points This one's in chicago that does help them quite a bit But I don't know how much the chicago offense has truly improved like playing well against these defenses is great But i'm still skeptical they could do so against a Average-ish defense will call them for the packers here after accounting for schedule They're still number fires 28th ranked offense that does include the time with nick foals So I would not put them 28th obviously I think if you put trabiski in there it's a lot better than that But I don't think they'll be able to move the ball as effectively this time around Against green bay and brandon mentioned that even with trabiski In this small sample. They have been below average Offense offense passing so the packers have a lot to play for here. They are much better I think overall than this bears team So give me green bay minus five and a half on sunday But I do want to talk to you about this because obviously your numbers have a market opinion on michael trabiski at quarterback For the chicago bears. I'm sure that number has evolved over time But what do they say about this bearish team under trabiski? Yeah, do you want to take a guess how much better or worse it is under trabiski than foals? I would say now Two points Okay. Yeah, so my model which obviously includes Games earlier in the season Says a half point. Okay, so I was remarking for a long time when foals was hurt and trabiski was coming back like I mean, it didn't matter It didn't even matter to make the adjustment in that part of my model because they were both essentially the same With trabiski has moved up the half point, but that that's essentially what the the opinion is Yeah, so not a huge difference So I feel better about including the full season numbers there With chicago's offense and I think I feel pretty good about green bay laying some lumber on sunday and laying five and a half That is all the time that we have for today and for this week But do not forget we're back again next week to talk the nfl playoffs That should be a whole lot of fun So make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also once again If you did not listen yesterday Make sure you go back and check out our chat with drew martin to preview the college football semifinals coming up on friday Also a little a selfish auburn north western preview For drew or from drew as well big Thank you to drew find him on twitter at drew martin betts and a big thank you as well to brandon gandula You can find him on twitter at gandula 13 gdu la One three ed. What about you? What is cooking over at the power egg for this week? Yeah, so please sign up for my free email newsletter You get a sample of my best predictions usually save for paying members of the site You can do that at the power rank dot com and if you want access to all of my best numbers And if you want access to some of these games I talk about on covering the spread Before you can get it on the podcast That's all available to members. So check that out at the power rank dot net All right, and ed is on twitter at the power rank. I am on twitter at gymsonis gymsanes You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin thea bald our video producer for running the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your bets Whether it be for college football in the new year or for nfl week 17. Have a fantastic new year We'll talk to you once again in 2021 for the start of the nfl playoffs This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network