 This is Covering the Spread, part of the Fandall podcast network. Our final Friday before the NFL is back, it's going to be a lot of fun talking player props. Next week, JJ Zacharyson will have our NFL Week 1 betting preview with Ryan Williams going up on Thursday. Next week is going to be fun, but the NBA said, not so fast guys, we got some stuff to discuss. Donovan Mitchell traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers yesterday, we're going to break that down with Tom Vecchio today to get you set for that and also talk about some NBA money lines and strikeout props I like for Friday. This is Covering the Spread right here on the Fandall podcast network powered by Number Fire and I am Jim Sonnis, a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here by Tom Vecchio. You know Tom's voice by now because he's filled in for me a couple times here. The past couple weeks we're going to have Tom on basically as our I'm going to call you our NBA correspondent. You'll be doing other stuff too, obviously, you know, you're not just an NBA guy, but I don't know NBA. So I'm not going to recommend a single NBA bet on the show because I would not punish our listeners by doing that. So when NBA news pops up or when the NBA season rolls around, I'm going to lean on Tom a whole lot. So Tom, fun day yesterday. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. Yeah, it's an exciting time. We're less than a week away from football. And then all of a sudden we have a blockbuster NBA trait that happened. It's it's always interesting when these things happen in the off season for NFL or NBA. And it's good to break these things down. Yeah, absolutely. So like I said, I don't know basketball a lot. So I'm going to have Tom explain that to me, explain what this means to me. You can find Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tommy is an associate editor for us here at Number Fire. And of course, you'll hear him here on covering the spread plenty as well. So let's talk about this. Donovan Mitchell trade, Mitchell goes to the Cleveland Cavaliers. So Tom, I think the biggest question that I have is like a casual person watching the NBA from the sidelines. The most part is what does this do for the Cavaliers ceiling? Because I did see, you know, there were there, there, there are their odds. Their finals odds moved quite a bit, a hundred to one to 33 to one. So there was a lot of movement there. But what is the ceiling of this new look Cavaliers team with Mitchell in the fold? That's a good question. And when it comes to the East overall, I still think that in my mind at best, they're they're the fourth best team in the East, maybe more realistically the fifth and we have to we have to look at this like really, really reasonably that the Celtics are great. They went to the finals last year. They lost. They got better in the offseason. The Bucks and the Heat are all still better than the Cavs as of now. These are teams that have plenty of veteran, veteran experience. They have true superstars on their team. Then we have this next tier with Philly and Brooklyn, who are good, but not great. Maybe the Cavs push their way into that tier and the East. I want to say is like is almost going to cannibalize itself because there are so many good teams now that you still have to worry about the Atlanta Hawks that got better and Toronto Raptors didn't get worse in the offseason. They didn't get necessarily a whole lot better, but they're still a good team. Not great. So we have this really jumbled mid tier where the Cavs should make the playoffs. And your question is what's their ceiling? Yeah, their ceiling is ultimately, I think, do they get a good pull in the playoffs for the bracket? So if we have, hypothetically, the Bucks and the Celtics on one side of the bracket and then it's only one of them is going to come out to the East Finals. If the Cavs get a good pull, their ceiling could be the East Finals because of all these like really good teams, but only a few great teams. And we want, you know, if you're a Cavs fan, you want the great teams to end up on the opposite side of the bracket. Right. So it sounds like based on that, it's going to be very dependent on situation. Does that say that that tells me you're not you're not touching 33 to one? Is that the correct read there? No, I'm not touching 33 to one. I would have interest in the division because you could make the case now that they're as good or slightly better than the Bulls, but they're still not better than the Bucks, but at plus four hundred to win the division, there's probably no value there for me. Yeah, I will say if they start off slow, right? And, you know, new team, new players getting involved in the offensive. That drops to like plus eight hundred. You know, maybe, you know, that is where a spot I'd be interested in. I do think that there's a way to kind of mitigate those numbers if you want to discuss that real quick. Sure, let's do it. So their win total, as you said, is 46 and a half. I think that's fine. What I would have the most interest in would be Darius Garland or Evan Mobley for most improved player at 49 to one or Karis Leverk for sixth man a year at 33 to one. So plus 400 is obviously a pretty low number for them to win the division. And granted, that's not that big. But if you are willing to go to that or go to the east, you have to say, how are they going to get there? What is that going to look like for your team? Who's going to be stepping up? And, you know, Darius Garland or Evan Mobley taking a step forward this year because of the addition of Don Vimential at 49 at 49 to one. That is realistic along with Karis Leverk probably running their second unit offense coming off the bench at 33 to one. So you're buying into the Cavs, but you're doing it from like a secondary market, not straight ahead. And that's the same thing I would say is like when Russell Wilson got traded to the Broncos, you know, you don't want to jump on their Superb rods because those dropped dramatically. But it's like, OK, can I bet on their player prop overs? Can I bet on Portland Sutton, some type of receiving prop for him because you want to mitigate the value that you lost, but still have, you know, the upside that you're expecting from their offense. If that makes sense, right? Like you're still buying in, you're finding the markets that didn't move as much as they should have, as opposed to the ones that did move appropriately, which sounds like the finals odds did. And I think that's already to think about it, where you want to look for the markets that are correlated, but didn't move the way they should have. So that's the ceiling discussion with the Cavs. And you're finding other ways to take advantage of that ceiling without paying a massive or a lower price tag for that. So let's talk about the the more floor case for them and talk about the median expectation because they're wind total right now. If Andil's forcebook 46 and a half, it was a 42 and a half a couple of minutes after the trade yesterday that was post trade. So it's been moving up steadily throughout the day minus one 18 on the over here. Obviously, the ceiling doesn't need to be as big for this, but it also does play into what you talked about where like they could have some gelling issues early on. So what's your read on the wind total here at 46 and a half? Immediately, I would lean towards the over last year. They finished with 44 wins and they were a play in team. The new NBA format where the last few teams do the elimination tournament to make the playoffs. So it's right in line where they were last year. I do think that Don Vin Mitchell adds more than three wins. You know, considering that they didn't have Jared Allen for a stretch last year. Evan Mobley missed a few games at the end of last year. He was a rookie last year. So hopefully just another year of experience for him. It really comes down to how well do they do against those mid tier teams? Like they can beat the Pistons. They can beat the Wizards, the Pacers. But when they have to go night after night of facing Philly, Boston, right, Milwaukee, Atlanta, like all these teams that just night after night. It's like, how are they going to fare against those teams? That's ultimately what I have the most interest in. And frankly, my mind like immediately goes to a really micro level of like, what's their rotation going to look like? What's the offensive usage going to look like? Because I find the most value on PRA bets, which are points, rebounds, assists. Yeah. And you know, when you have Garland or Mitchell out there playing for 38 minutes, it's like they can have an off night from shooting, but if they're going to be out there racking up rebounds and assists, it's like, I'm going to have interest in that once the season like really gets on their way. So the floorcase for them or the median expectation is I would lean towards the over 49, 50 wins, but it's going to be close because the east is so good. Yeah, I think that that's pretty interesting. And I think that they're going to be a fun team to watch again, as somebody who doesn't know a whole lot here. But based on the players they've got, based on Twitter, I'm going to go ahead and say they'll be a fun team regardless. That is the Cleveland Cavaliers picking up down to Mitchell. That is Tom Vecchio. Check him out on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom and check out his work at Numberfire. And of course, we'll have Tom back here. Plenty, especially as NBA wraps up Tom have a fantastic final weekend before the NFL. We'll talk to you once again soon. Thanks for having me. Alrighty, that is Tom Vecchio. Again, DFS underscore Tom to find Tom on Twitter to get his takes on the NBA. And of course, Menafal takes from him as well. We're going to dive into today's MLB Slade and just one second breakdown and some money lines and strikeout props that I like. But first NFL kickoff just around the corner, but you can get in the action now on Fandall Sportsbook with their NFL Super Win bonus right now. Anyone who places at least a $50 Super Bowl winner will get $5 back for each win their team has during the regular season. There are also a ton of other futures markets available, like team win totals, division winners, player props and so much more. There's no better place to get ready for the football season than on Fandall America's number one sportsbook and official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and present in select states only. Bonus issued is non-withdrawable free bets that expire seven days after a seat. Max free bet $50 restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMER or was a Fandall dot com slash RG in Arizona. One hundred next step or tax next step to five three, three, four, two in Connecticut, 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana. One hitter nine with it in Louisiana. 1-877-770 stop in New York. 1-877-8 Hope and why or Tex Hope and why in Tennessee? Call the red line at 1-889-9789 in Wyoming, 1-800-522-4700 or in West Virginia, 1-800-GAMER dot net. Let's take into this Friday MLB slate. We got a lot of games going for tonight and a couple spots where I do show some pretty good value. The biggest moneyline edge I am seeing right now is on the San Francisco Giants over the Philadelphia Phillies. The Giants moneyline minus 1-16 here. That has moved a bit, but I still think there is value here. I've got this one more heavily in the Giants corner. The I've got 58.5% to win this game and their implied odds right now are 53.7%. So still pretty good value for them in this spot. And it's because my numbers like Alex Kovalev, the starter for the Giants. He is letting up a bit too much hard contact right now, but he has a 2.98 skill interactive ERA in eight starts since this velocity decrease. So we're looking just at the time since the Velo for Cobb came down. It's been a big talking point for him this year because Velo is way up at the beginning of the year, got hurt, came back. The Velo is good. It's come down recently, but still a really good 2.98 skill interactive ERA in that time and he's keeping the ball on the ground. So there is hard contact in there and that doesn't matter. But keeping the ball on the ground at least mitigates that. The park mitigates that. It's very cold, 60 degrees in San Francisco for tonight. Those are all good things. This Phillies offense is definitely improved. Even when you put Bryce Harper back in the fold, though, the active roster has a 103 WRC plus against Reigns. These teams, the Giants and the Phillies are very, very similar. They both struggle in the exact same areas. They struggle with their defense and they struggle with their bullpen. Those are big issues for both these teams, but they're just honestly very similar to me. They are back to back in my active roster power rankings right now, which to me says if we get the Giants at home and I prefer their starting pitcher Cobb over Kyle Gibson, I should probably be OK with going with them at minus 116. Again, my numbers have the Giants here. Fifty eight point five percent to win this game versus a fifty three percent implied at minus 116. Now we mentioned earlier on this week that I'm not a big same game parlay kind of guy, but the money line discussion around the Giants does play into a strikeout prop that I like as well. And I want to tie that together potentially with a same game parlay here. That's Alex Cobb. So I mentioned Cobb liking what he's been doing. His strikeout prop right now over a Fandall Sportsbook is at four and a half. And the over is minus 134. I don't mind pairing those two together. If you pair them together, the Giants money line with Cobb or four and a half strikeouts, Fandall Sportsbook right now will give you plus 189 on those two numbers together. I don't mind that. I think you go that route. I think both are good bets individually. And that's kind of what I need to feel good about a bet from a parlaying perspective. I need each leg to be good, to be plus EV. And I don't often find that within a single game, finding two different numbers where I'm showing value, but I do get that here with Cobb and the Giants money line. You don't pair them together. You want to go just one of the other. The reason I like Cobb is, again, he has a 26.4 percent strikeout rate in the sample with his velocity being lower. The affiliates opposing offense, 23.1 percent strikeout rate on the current active roster against righties. They are an above average team from a strikeout perspective. That's a good thing for Cobb. So I've got Cobb's strikeout projection here at 6.57. And again, at four and a half, that puts his over on some 70.5 percent. So I don't mind splitting these two apart, going with them individually. I think that's totally fine. Or if you're just one, one or just the other, that's totally OK, too. But I am showing a lot of value on Cobb over four and a half at minus one 34 against 70 percent for me. So even, you know, it should be probably about five and a half should be a strikeout prop for today. I think when you pair them together, that's totally fine. You could get a bit more aggressive if you wanted to and potentially go with an alternate strikeout prop for Cobb. But for me personally, I'm OK playing things safer here and going with the Giants money line and the Cobb over four and a half at minus one 34 to get a plus one 89 on those same game Parley odds. Beyond Cobb, beyond the Giants, the other strikeout prop I like for today is David Peterson. I think he's fascinating. Peterson has been back and forth between the bullpen, the rotation been in triple A sometimes. But when he has been allowed to pitch for the Mets as a starter, he's been an animal. So the strikeout prop right now is five and a half with even money on the over. And I like that quite a bit. I have Peterson's over odds at 54.7 percent up from 50 percent implied. He's there because he's been a monster. He's cut back the usage on his sinker over his past 12 appearances and sinkers suck. So from a strikeout projection perspective, so coming back on that, not surprisingly, led to some very good things for Peterson. In that time, he has a 31 percent strikeout rate. Very good. Now it's worth noting two of those 12 appearances were as a reliever. And you expect strikeouts to be higher in the situations. It makes sense. But even as just a starter, Peterson has been phenomenal in this time. He says the Nationals and Nationals used to be a super low strikeout team. That hasn't been the case as much since the Juan Soto and Josh Bell trade. Right now, the current active roster has a 21.5 percent strikeout rate against lefties. They're still below average in that regard. They're still a lower number than you would like. But they're not an actively low strikeout team as they were before. So you get Peterson fully stretched out. He's got 100 plus pitches and two straight starts. You're getting him against a pretty bad offense. He's at home. They're striking out more than they were over five and a half even money. Again, I'm not showing a huge edge here. So if this has moved a lot since since I talked about it, you might want to stay away. I think that minus one 10 is fine. Minus one 20, you're getting kind of in that range where I'd probably pedal off and not showing a lot of value there. But I think for me and even money right now in the over five and a half for Peterson, that's a good bet and one that I do like. So the things I'm seeing valuing the most for today, the Giants money line minus one 16, Alex Cobb over four and a half strikeouts at minus one 34 and David Peterson strikeout prop over five and a half even money at Fandall Sportsbook. My numbers also don't mind the Brewers. The Brewers money line minus one 15 or minus one 16 right now. I'm OK with that one. Did take that last night. I had the the Angels previously, but they moved quite a bit. So no longer than that one. Read debt merge pitching pretty well right now. So makes them lively versus Houston. But those three to me, the primary ones I'm keying in on for today, trying to close off this pretty good week for baseball on a high note here. That is all that we have here for today on covering the spread. Next week, though, is going to be a big one because as mentioned, NFL is back with celebrity college football preview with Dr. Ed Fang on Wednesday, getting yourself for college football week two. We'll have our NFL full week preview with Ryan Williams on Thursday and then our player prop preview with JJ Zacharyston will be on Friday all right here in this very same people show on Tuesday to no show Monday due to Labor Day then. But to get all these shows as they are posted, make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts. Also a reminder, our week one college football betting preview with Parker Fleming and Ed Fang is posted now on the covering spread podcast feed, find that on the same feed. Go check that out. Get your bets in for college football week number one. If you got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fade to a Podcast Network at Fade to a Podcast. Big thank you once again to Tom Becky over swinging by and breaking down the Donovan Mitchell trade. Check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom. I am excited to have Tom back on the show here in the very near future. Have a fantastic, have a safe weekend. We'll talk to you all once again next week for NFL week number one. This has been covering the spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.