 The following is a presentation of TFNN Trade what you see With Larry Pezzavento Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618 Now Larry Pezzavento Okay, looking good Billy Ray feeling good Lewis folks. I'm back. I'd like to put some You at ease. I did not have COVID folks what I had was strained vocal cords and I had to stop talking for five days And which is not easy Anyway, I'm doing a little better now and I want to try to go through this morning to what I think is happening It was pretty clear to me yesterday Sunday, but you know that doesn't mean it's gonna be cleared everybody else or maybe I'm not even clear But this is the US dollar index. We're gonna follow the money The one thing I'd like for you to do if you listen to the radio show And you don't get the newsletter is to get the newsletter this week and listen to John's Jameson description of what's been happening Because John really understands background conditions better than anybody I've ever met better than any economist I've ever met any analyst I've ever met and he's always said that this thing is related to the US dollar The fact that they're just not enough T bills to go around because the banks are scared to death as they should be And you can see here. We had a potential for a beautiful ABCD here in the Dollar index which means you had a really good probability of the euro getting ready to turn Well, this is what's my description of what happened last night because this is it It all happened in sequences. It was very interesting to what happens first I wanted to to bring up what we were looking at here in the euro last night. This was around Oh, I think you I don't remember the exact time because that doesn't really make that much difference here so let's just take a look at this and We'll take a try to walk you through what I think is really happening here now This is the euro that's on a 15 minute because I get five days in and I want you to see here You know, you see we made the 382 rally here We made the 382 rally here and we made the 382 rally here and I assume because of that double top Possibly triple top ABC in the dollar index weekly that we had a chance here for the euro to actually hold up That's when it was trading at 104. I mentioned it You know anything below 104 was not going to be very good and boy and let me explain to you what happened You'll see it next what it means when these patterns fail They do not take any prisoners, but this is where the whole game changed for everything And this is follow the money. This is what this is what we talk about these background conditions The banks are just they're afraid to do anything and they should be okay Now you notice here we as soon as we failed there with the first you had the big wide range down That was the first indication, but you're sitting right at the 61 percent retracement 20 points below that and butter bing butter boom. What does it do? It drops another? $1,500 at the same time at the same time that we're doing this and this is early in the morning We had a beautiful pattern Uncovered here in the Nasdaq. Let me just show you how it looked last night early when early Monday was Monday Not Sunday get this up here so we can see it here Here was a Nasdaq it opened and rallied 220 handles Going exactly up to the 382 retracement of the eye that we made Five six days ago now that in itself It's not very good action because the S&P and the Dow Dow Jones were approaching 61 percent Retracements the problem was it went right up to that 61 percent retracement stopped dead in its tracks and Went sideways for three hours At which time my data went out and of course I was asleep at the time the data went out And then by that time the market started to move lower and lower and lower Once we were up 200 in some points in the Dow once we got unchanged It was telling you that it was most probably getting ready, you know to roll over now We don't always see these the way we'd like to see them, but that's how they react some of the time now One of the things that most people are really interested in and that we hear at TF and N Especially anybody listens to Tom will Brian or me we have a really strong interest in that gold market And the gold market is related to the US dollar because if the US dollar goes up Gold is going to go down the only way you're going to get gold to go up Substantially over a long period of time is to have a weak US dollar and we're not seeing that right now if we look at that last night, you'll see and I haven't been on the show for so long I I talk about these things in the videos that I send out, but there's the you can see the beautiful ABCD pattern We had here at 813. Okay, you've got a week You know, I've got a really strong dollar It can't get any higher than the ABCD and then it starts to go down You'll see the first three eight to retracement there at 806 and now we went all the way down to 817 66 folks pay attention to 1765 any views that have ever listened to the newsletter or listen to the newsletter How long Larry have followed the newsletter You'll know that we've been watching this for a very very long time Because that dollar index and the dot and the dollar So related to the to the gold market to let me put this up to show you where we are because we're getting ready To go to places that we haven't seen in a long time in the gold market It's going to make some great buying opportunities But here's where we are you see the three eight to retracement we had up here at that 830 something Okay, there we made a new low this morning at the 78 percent level at 1765 that was the last price. I saw 1766 I believe very very important that it sets that because if we break below that folks We're going to see another hundred dollar break in the gold market very easily because it's headed down It's got an ABCD. It's got a you know a really strong dollar against it And it's got some really strong cycles that are telling you that it's headed down So we want to watch that one very closely pay attention to the chart of silver Because we just made this morning. We made a newer low than we did on Sunday and that was we made 1936 That's the ABCD pattern in the silver. I don't know how much lower we are than that But these are not to be bought yet. They're very very tenuous at best So we want to be patient and see these things uncovering by the way folks our guest today at the break is going to be Jeff huge of alpha insights on Wednesday, we're going to have Shane's million the wolf trader calm who's been tearing it up and then we also have on Thursday we are going to have mr. Stan Harley and then on Friday. We have Tim boss Financial cycles weekly and going into Monday. We're going to have the wizard himself of Naples, Florida Norm winsky will be our guest. Okay back on to some of those other things that we're seeing here and some of these markets I give you an idea the other one that was really really interesting folks from a longer term standpoint Was the crude old market here? I'll get this up here To show you and I'll give you a really interesting story that I know all of you to get frustrated Would like to hear so let's move this up here. You see this is the pattern. We were looking at you See we had the three drive pattern here up there at that 810 14 level we had to break all the way down all the way up here to 111 45 last night folks put that put that in your in your In your volume thing folks because for for remembering things because I actually I got stopped out there folks I lost 26 bucks at $260 and then it started to roll over. Let's take a little break here 877-927-6648 We'll be right back continue with crude oil The time of booming inflation we are purchasing powers eroded There's no better place to protect your hard-earned money than a gold This the golds flagship asset is the Monk Todd gold project in the northern territory of Australia This is Australia's largest unveloped gold project. We are talking a world-class gold project in a tail one mining district This is a large-scale low-cost project with significant existing infrastructure in a politically safe and friendly mining jurisdiction This the gold just completed the Mount Todd feasibility study Which resulted in a seven million ounce gold reserve in a 16-year mine life? All of this combined with the approvals of all major operational as well as environmental permits This distinguishes Mount Todd as an attractive Dearest pot ready development stage gold project. This the gold trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol VGZ You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices Selective stocks and commodities subscribe to the opening call newsletter at TFNN.com the opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman Creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman wave the Chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in Identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys and stock prices get the opening call newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up TFNN.com educating investors Steve Rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago and the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious Timer of the Year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing it number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve Rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn and he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge Every day it is mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for Steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of Steve's educational webinars Absolutely free at TFNN all our newsletters come with a 30-day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit TFNN.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today TFNN educating investors toll-free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618 Okay, we're back folks and I'm going to be talking about crude oil for the next few minutes You can see here this trend line that's right here each of those highs along that trend line was an exact 382 Retracement we're almost ready to go to double digits folks in crude oil at 99 we're at 10 10 $10 $100 and 80 cents I believe I just saw the the beeper go off So we're probably going to get to that that ought to be some support I would think but we've come down from 130 we dropped 30% Gasoline prices are starting to drop those of you that follow the commodity markets, you know, they've been absolutely Decimated we've warned a little bit about that we tried the long side of corn into the report We lost 10 cents on that but today corn opened down seven cents and then dropped another 28 cents To the exact 786 down there at that nine. Excuse me. Believe me 579 578 579 level the lowest 571 and I said if I can't buy corn here on the 5th of July when corn is as high as an elephant's eye Cata buy it somewhere. So I bought it there risking 10 cents whether it's going to work or not I don't know it was up 10 cents just a little while ago, but it sold off with the rest of the markets There's a lot of selling coming in folks and part of the reasoning for that is I'll just show you share of facts Timeout poison girls. I want to share with you a chart from Bloomberg from Alan Bianco Bianco research It's one of the very best you think it's going to be funny But when you look at it take a little bit of time because there's a blue line in there that you need to pay attention to Now you see all this stuff here. That's everything over the last hundred years. Okay now You see that blue line. That's right there that really dark blue line That's that's us right now in the stock market folks and that's only the third worst time ever Ever EV er ever this is not good folks. This is not good. This thing is going down big time So be very very careful in here. So that's my two cents worth and I'm sticking to it The other one that I wanted to mention to you comes from a good friend over in Austria cycles research I want to bring this up and it shows you the statistics behind some of these things Just like the albionco research thing said this shows it to you in numbers And it shows you the number of times we've had these things happening the market's been lower every single time So these are odds that you want to pay attention to because it's beginning to look like some of the things that People are being afraid of is there now we looking if you remember here going back a long time ago We talked about treasury bonds and treasury notes Okay, now let's just take a second here and we're going to bring up the treasury Note chart. I believe first. Let's get it up. Yeah, here we go and there's where we are one second The whole world hated these things, you know 10 weeks ago and now we've had a 10-point rally in bonds There's the notes went right up to the 382 retracement of the last high That was the high that we made on friday We backed off two and a half points in bonds actually three points in bonds They went back and touched it again today. So that's a very important 382 retracement So it's going to be interesting to what happens if we were in a monster bear market in bonds We're in a monster bear market in stocks. It doesn't look good. So protect yourself You know the best way that you can those of you that if you bought the coins today at that 570 I think was 579 That's trading at 580 and a half right now put your stop You know two cents above the high at 573. So only risk $350 if you're going to do that Now I want to show you just something that's I want to give you one other just idea of the abcd's because this is the abcd on the daily chart For the treasury bonds. You'll see we went up here On the big move down and now of course with stocks going down the flight to quality as the bonds We went up there and touched that same high today within about four or five pips and there's a big abcd That's very important. We should get a good correction Coming back into treasury bonds. That might hold the market for a little bit But frankly, it's going to need a whole lot of help more than that To keep this thing, you know going on the On the right side now. I haven't had a chance here I did show you the 382 in the The nasdaq dog gone. I'm way out of late way out of line here Just to say this is where the whole key happened folks This is the in the morning of sunday Monday morning we we opened up here On monday morning being closed, of course Here's tuesday, but you see we were right up to the 382 here. This was a 200 in some point jump here at about 15 20 minutes maybe half an hour and then we spent you can see there. It's been well over two hours Till night time came, you know 10 30 11 or 12 o'clock at night and then the market started down big time And we were trying to make a 61 retracement in the dow Jones. We couldn't do it We couldn't do it in the s&p The s&p had a small guardly up there at the a 38 50 38 49 level and then gave up You know 80 handles So those are just some of the things that happen overnight that you don't have You know very much control over so that's what happened with that because it started to break down now that the reason why that was important This has been the leader most of the time as it led all the way down and it's lead led all the way up Till we got to those highs back in january now It's becoming the weaker one and we're seeing you know indications that it's happening to other parts Of the area. Let's take a look here at the german Dax here for just a second And we'll get this up here to let you see this one here The german Dax has been in a very very severe downtrend And you know you can see we're just not bouncing folks. This this thing wants to go a whole lot lower And uh, you know the natural gas prices over in in europe are going absolutely nuts to the upside And the ones here in the united states They're going anywhere but nuts. We've gone from nine dollars down to five dollars and we're still well bouncing a little bit today But uh, that's uh, that's a really really really bad sign So let's remind ourselves of that and then we're going to take a look here at the footsie So that you'll be able to see that up here We'll be able to get it And you'll see the footsie also headed south So be careful folks these markets are going to get more more volatile every day And you've got to be prepared to protect yourself On the backside of some of these things to Protect yourself and your capital because there's going to be some there's going to be some super great moves in here As you can see now here's what I wanted to show you the last one I wanted to show you here is the corn market and you'll be able to see what's happened today You'll see the space here today where the gap is that was the gap down. We closed at 607 On friday, we opened here monday tuesday morning here at six dollars went all the way down to 571 The 78 percent level on the weekly chart was at 578 And three quarters. I bought it at 579 it got up to 590 And now it's back to I don't know the last price. I saw it or anything. It was Still moving down, but not too much It's still trading it right about where I bought it about 580 if you're nervous about that folks just take it off I mean I can understand that because I I get nervous too Just like everything else But like I say, you know, we're in the middle of a growing season here and these these crops are far from Ever getting completed. So we've got to be careful. Stay tuned for jeff huge alpha insights. We'll be right back If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my gold report The gold report is a comprehensive look at the metals sector as well as the markets that move gold Which is the currency and bond markets new subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee So you have nothing to lose every monday morning I published the gold report with coverage of gold silver bonds the xa u hui gdx as well as more than 30 different mining equities To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the gold report Sign up now by visiting tfnn.com. 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Are you there? I am here larry. How are you happy 4th of july Happy 4th of july to you. I don't know if you use the same little poem that we have here in order to have a happy 4th Be sure that you buy a fifth on the third that was back in the days when we didn't have alcohol in indiana I never did any drinking but that was a little joke. Anyway, tell the folks What you're looking at here and I'll be happy to uh, I want to talk to you about this strategic risk allocation because You've been very bearish for a long time and boy I tell you I don't anybody can be bullish here. My hat's off to him because it certainly looks like we're in for a period of Portracted downward movement in my opinion. So what do you think my friend? Well, I don't disagree with that at all and as a matter of fact as you probably know We published our free newsletter huge insights over the weekend and In that we kind of outlined a lot of these themes that we're going to talk about today One of which, you know, certainly is the fact that we've seen this downtick in our strategic risk allocation model, which Really looks at the ratio a broad ratio of stocks versus bonds So a lot of people look at like the s&p versus the you know, the aggregate bond And that's what we do is we take a look at the s&p 1500 equally weighted and then we also Compare that to the corporate bonds of all of those Um Companies as well and when when the the model line or that ratio line is going up That means that stocks look more favorable than bonds and when it's going down bonds look more favorable than stocks And we've kind of got this, you know this model that triggers once we hit a certain level and we've hit that level for a neutral signal Now so in the first half of the year stocks were down around 21 percent year to date Bonds were down almost 25 percent over the same period and so, you know What we determined is that, you know, we wanted to be long stocks or overweight stocks versus bonds because they're outperforming Now it looks like bonds are poised to begin to outperform So we've moved to a 50 50 allocation because we think Um stocks are ready to roll over hard down and um, you know bonds should be the place to hide Well, they're going to have to hide somewhere because I think they're getting ready to go down too, but Oh, you know, I can't just look what's happened to commodities. I mean this has just been truly amazing Uh, I mean to me I I'm just totally shocked that we've been able to uh See that do you realize just a few seconds ago that we went below triple digits in crude oil We're now trading below a hundred dollars a barrel Uh, I've been watching that and as a matter of fact, uh, you know, just kind of looking at the uh, September contract It looks like the 200 a moving average comes in around 85 86 dollars And that's a big chart support level. So would not surprise me at all To see crude test that level Okay, now the next chart that I'd like to uh, oh no, what happened? Now I've lost Hold on just a second here. I've lost my uh There we just I'm back now. I can finally post the uh Chart that I want to let the folks see that you've got here Uh, that is really interesting here. They're all interesting, but I love this one because it shows the state of the economy This is from the federal reserve. I believe isn't it? Jeff The is um, the the Atlanta Fed does something called the gdp now cast And uh, what they really do is they take all the data points that go into calculating gdp And they update them in real time as they're reported and uh as of effective friday, uh, the first of july That model turned negative And you know, what's interesting to me is that first quarter gdp just saw its final revision Last week as well and it came in at minus 1.6 percent And now second quarter looks like it's on track supposed to minus 2.1 percent level based on the data as it's been delivered so far Now you got to keep in mind that at the end of the fourth quarter last year We were annualized at seven percent growth. So we've taken a complete nose dive In terms of gdp growth and a lot of that can be blamed on the fact that Inflation so high right because headline inflation is what's infecting the affecting the real component of real gdp And so, um, you know, we've seen negative growth and as a rule of thumb when you get two consecutive quarters of Of uh, you know shrinking economic output or negative gdp growth That tends to coincide with the recession and has forever recession for the past 50 years A lot of people will say it's a technical recession We won't really know whether it's a recession officially until the nber Informs us but it's it's pretty clear to market participants obviously Especially in the bond market that the economy is already in recession at least a rolling recession And so, you know, we've been kind of positioned for that and continue to advocate investors kind of You know not ignore this and and take it seriously because it looks to us like things are about to get worse Yeah, well something's happening. That's for sure. We're seeing collapse in some of these Um commodities, you know sugar Beans oil meal. I mean all of them, uh corn. I mean all of them just been getting hit really bad Now you've got a next slide is on your underlying inflation dashboard. Is it showing some warning signs here that maybe That we could be getting a little better Well, here's what's happened. Okay, since the last time I showed this slide, which maybe was a month ago Core inflation has actually gotten worse Uh, it's gotten 50 basis points higher. We were about 290 basis points above that 2 percent fed target that they call the neutral inflation rate Now we're 340 basis points above it. So, you know, the problem is the fed thinks neutrals like 2 to 3 percent It looks more to us like it's Four and a half to five and a half percent and someone was explaining to me how You know the balance sheet drawdown and the feds plan the balance sheet drawdown of about four and a half percent this year $400 billion is also going to help tighten Conditions and you know, that's about that equates to about 200 basis points in traditional fed tightening And so if you combine that with where, you know, the fed is kind of directing us to believe It looks like they believe 500 basis points Is the is the neutral rate as well and that's kind of showing up in their dot plot right now as well Wow, okay. The next one I'd like for you to take talk to us about Is your your monetary policy dashboard. What what are you seeing here? Well, what I'm seeing on the left hand side is that the the odds market or you know, the probabilities as You know kind of the CBOE's fed tool has put it is about 82.6 percent that the fed is going to raise Rates by another 75 basis points in july that's the july 27th fed meeting At only about 17 percent that they're going to raise 50 basis points So it looks pretty much like a lock at this point that they're going to raise 75 bits If we look to the right-hand side of this chart, that's the dot plot and those You know kind of light blue dots are where the consensus among fed governors is right now And it's about 3.37 percent is where they see the fed funds rate by year end Now that's another 175 basis points in in tightening. So in addition to what we see in july We could see another 100 basis points on top of that just to get to where these fed governors are putting their dot plot Expectations which happens to align perfectly with the fed funds futures market So the market and the fed are now in complete agreement with the fed funds rates going to be about 3.375 percent by the end of the year and then into next year The fed is actually looking to continue to tighten to around three and a half to three 75 But the market thinks that the fed will pivot and start to cut rates in 2023 The market's actually looking for something closer to 275 by year end 2023 Jeff stay with us, please. We really love this stuff. We'll be right back with Jeff huge alpha insights folks. Stay tuned Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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If you trade china a shares now may be time to take a closer look trade chAU or chAD Directions daily csi 300 china a share bull and bear etf's china a shares in either direction Visit direction investments.com today an investor should consider the investment objectives risks charges and expenses of the direction shares carefully before investing The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus Please contact direction shares at 866-476-7523 The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing an investment in the funds is subject to risk Including the possible loss of principal the funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor four-side fund services LLC This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz Okay, we're back folks speaking with jeff huge alpha insights and he's going to talk to us about earnings next All right, you know larry. I think earnings are the next shoe to drop We're going to you know kick off our second quarter earnings recording season in about two weeks with the big banks And you know, we think it's going to be a pretty ugly scenario here in fact You know, we've been stress testing rsnp operating earnings model by adjusting assumptions to reflect Some of the things that we saw back in the 70s. We're kind of using the 1969 70 You know inflationary bear market and and recession is kind of our our base analog And what we learned there is that margins compressed dramatically and revenues came down dramatically Early in the recession which ended up resulting in big earnings revisions later in the year And so we're getting ahead of it. We cut our earnings estimates to sub 200 dollars We're at 198 this year down 5 percent year over year the street is still at 229 Up 10 percent year over year and so, you know, we're a full 16 percent to the downside from where The street is and I think as earnings are reported in the second quarter and forward guidance disappoints We're going to see analysts on wall street revise their estimates sharply lower And I think that the market has not priced that in Markets priced in the change in interest rates and the tightening in the financial conditions And the multiples come down from 22 times to 16 times But you know that pe's only as good as the e and it's still pricing off of These consensus 229 estimates this year. I think those numbers are there's zero chance. We're going to see that I mean it's a very very low probability And you know, we think numbers will end up being sub 200 dollars The work that we've done suggests if we're wrong our numbers are still too high and we're going to have to cut them again Well, I'll tell you it's going to be pretty hard. I think for earnings to increase, you know They didn't have any incentive to uh Do that anyway, let's take a look at the next one. It's your advanced decline line This is some of the things that I really like to see because it gives a really good idea Of the distribution that's going on in the market. So you want to explain to the folks cumulative advanced decline lines? I do. So, uh, one of my mentors was Alan Shaw who's one of the, you know, top ranked, uh, market technicians on Wall Street for decades Back in my smith barney days and city group days. I work with him and you know, I asked him one time What you know, what do you rely on to give you confidence in your market view and he said it's it's the ad line It's it's the cumulative advanced decline line will tell me whether the market has bottomed or not By diverging positively and and what we've seen at this point is the most recent low of the june 17th low on the s&p Which was around 36 38 or so Was confirmed by a lower advanced decline line Both on the nyse and the nasdaq composite which between the two of them encompass almost 6 000 different issues Traded in the u.s Very very broad measure and then what it's basically saying is that we have not bottomed You know that the breadth continues to suggest That you know, it's confirming the price lows and that these price lows are not You know necessarily finished going down Wow boy, they certainly look very interesting here We haven't had a really bad the capitulation day We're down more than a thousand points in the dow and I think that's going to be coming My prediction has always been for a move of at least 1600 dowel points, you know during this move down So whether that's going to happen or not, you know, certainly remains to be seen now We've got another one that is interesting here because it don't get much in the news about it and that's about margin debt and That's got to be a factor somewhere. I mean this is it's going to be very interesting here Speaks to the amount of leverage and assistance still. I mean, we're at $752 billion in margin debt still that's actually well above the 2018 record high Which is about 610 billion or so and while we're down, you know, I think almost 19 20 percent below the record high of 936 billion 152 billion still a lot of Leverage to take off the books here and what's happened and you can see in this chart in the lower left hand corner That that's how margin debt annual rate of change has has been viewed over the last few decades And it peaked actually in march of 21 At 71 percent, okay, which was the second highest peak in history, right and it's come down It's now negative 12 percent. Well When this rate of change goes negative it tends to trigger or coincide with A very significant drawdown in the markets and that's exactly what we've seen But that drawdown tends to continue until that indicator goes positive again And so I don't think we're done going down yet And that there's a lot of leverage to be liquidated You know and a large a lot of margin calls Yet to be seen Okay, now we're going to get to the interesting part to those of you that like the Elliott wave theory and This young man certainly knows it as well as anybody I've heard So let's take a look at what you're looking at for your Elliott wave counts Jeff Well, you know all of the stuff that we've been talking about adds up to one thing And that is that the market is poised for a much much deeper drawdown And you know while I do concede that you know this bounce that we've seen off of that 36 37 Low that we put in on june 17th could carry further and we've actually on the right hand side of this chart We've illustrated one of the scenarios that we're considering Is a pretty big bounce back up to around the 41 to 4200 range Which is a prior wave four and if that happens then we would concede that You know the low that we saw on june 17th was probably wave a down And that that counter trend move, which is what it looks like to us today Would be wave b that means wave c's yet to come and we think wave c could carry the s and p 500 all the way down to 2250 which was around where The market bottomed at the you know march 2020 lows during the covet panic and if we looked at the left hand side of this chart All we're really doing is retracing 61.8 percent of the 13 year advance off the 2009 lows And so that's a standard sort of correction That's very common very typical at that degree of trend and that would coincide very closely with the 200 month moving average Which is usually where large degree You know Corrective patterns tend to trade all the way back down to these longer term 200 month moving average levels To test with the trend and so that's our working hypothesis right now And we think there's a pretty good shot of that taking place this year In fact, we think we could bottom on or about november 8th Which is actually a major montgomery cycle turn day And also election day So that's what we're looking for if we had to put a date and time on it Do you have the time of the day of november 8th with the bottom will be or are we just going to have to be Hey, i'm not i'm not being facetious at all I'm trying to be funny because i've made predictions in the past that never even came close So i'm the last one that you know, this should make any uh make anything now I've showed the folks how they can reach you and uh, we really want to have you back on Again soon jeff because we love seeing your charts. Your work's been great. You've been on the right side of the market And until that happens, you're going to be our guest Hey, thank you, buddy. We appreciate it. So why don't you uh go to my website at www.jwhinvestment.com and you can go to my newsletter and download the newsletter for free And we'd encourage you to do so. Uh, we actually have some You know membership perks where if you become a member and you get our top idea every week And you can also follow us on twitter at alpha underscore insight Vista gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in australia the mount todd gold project Vista gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a seven million ounce gold reserve Vista gold has all major permits approved and has retained c i b c capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing an accretive transaction vista gold trades on the nyse american and tsx under the ticker symbol vgz Vista gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market You're going to need a crystal ball after all it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life before you decide it's impossible get some advice from the experts You might find that it's not so impossible after all for daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices selective stocks and commodities Subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com The opening call newsletter is written by basal chapman creator of the trading methodology known as the chapman wave The chapman wave up down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices Get the opening call newsletter by basal chapman and your inbox every day First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up tfnn.com educating investors Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe you'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from larry on market movement. You need to act on at any time First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors Tfnn has launched the tiger's den hosted at discord Tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours Tiger's den available to all tigers and tygruses for just one dollar for the year There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders just visit the front page of tfnn.com Okay, folks, we're back. I posted the chart of the euro up here the The gold hit the exact 78 percent level at 1765. We're now trading at 1769 Folks, uh, this the gold is not going to go up until this u.s. Dollar turns down And it doesn't want to look to turn down right now. We're below 103 We're 102 and change in the euro You know the long-term weekly on euro goes down to either par or 99 So my goodness. I think we have to wait and see Uh, see some turn in the dollar index before gold will go now it might bounce off of here And it's a low risk trade. Uh, I I didn't buy it. I'm I'm long the corn is about the only thing that I had on today Tiny bit frustrated for mishit tiny bit frustrated. God, if that's not the biggest crock of crap I've ever heard I'm very frustrated missing that crude old move by just a little bit. Anyway We'll uh, we'll move on to the next thing tomorrow We're going to have uh as our guest is going to be shane small in the wolf trader dot com And he's got some great stuff too. He's been incredibly bearish These stocks are also along with jeff huge and then on thursday We're going to have stan harley friday We will have tim boston and monday will have Norman winsky So we got a good lineup of folks give us an idea of what we're looking at Keep an eye on the euro folks keep an eye on the gold If you're in the corn and you bought the corn there at the eight, uh, five excuse five seventy nine You know, it's trading at five eighty two or something. I I flashed it just a second ago Yeah, five eighty one and a quarter I'll put your stop down there at around uh, say five seventy five only risk 200 bucks And with the with crude old below hundred bucks a barrel now we're down at 99 53 I just saw across the tv over there. So, uh, that's pretty interesting too So we'll keep a close eye on that We might get a little bounce in the stocks But there'd probably be nothing more than a three eight two retracement And I'd certainly, you know, take a look at that because uh, it's going to be interesting Remember we're in the midst of a three eight two retracement on the weekly charts in both bonds and t notes Now that's another very very mark very very smart We'll be seeing you tomorrow on the flip side of every day in an attitude of gratitude and may god bless