 It is a pretty fun night for pitching tonight and MLB DFS because you got some really good names littering the top end of the pitching board We got Musgrove burns Ray Bueller Valdez Sandevolt guys like that and it does make things pretty fun from a DFS perspective And I think the good thing is that for tonight I'm not as worried about jamming in high salaried bats that was last night and obviously the Phillies didn't play out very well So maybe that's part of the reason we're looking down a hitter a bit for today But I do think it's a fun slate. It's a me slate where I can kind of choose for the pitchers I like decide who I want to prioritize and feel good about that not feel like I'm missing out at hitter So let's dive on in and get you said for this Tuesday main slate welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm You're gonna break down Tuesday's tenant game main slate with locks up for 7 10 p.m Eastern for this evening the second game of the double headers for the Nats and down the backs and the Giants and Mets are not on the main slate so Typically in the past we've had double headers on main slates, you know back before COVID It was a nightmare because you had to decide okay. Well, this guy play what time of this game starts stuff like that Don't worry about that for today. You're good to go So ignore the second half of those double headers and feel hopefully a lot more at ease as we get towards lock for tonight Couple weather there notes for today all temperature related and not towards rains That's a good thing for sure. Just 46 degrees in Boston for the blue jays and red socks I would downgrade hitters in that one. It is 43 degrees in Chicago for the Cubs in the rays I would downgrade hitters there as well 54 degrees in Kansas City for the Royals and Twins down great hitters there and finally it's 56 degrees in Oakland for the A's and Orioles slight downgrade there as well So a lot of places that are cooler for today some spots with some retractable rooms which may help a bit But overall that cooler than it has been the past couple of weeks I should play a factor in our stacks We'll still talk about a couple of those spots in the stacking section before or for today before we get there though Got a quick remind you to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Wherever you get your podcast because we have not just the solo shot of a weekday got NHL from Tom Vecchio USC PGA NASCAR all in the same place at the exact same feed So hit subscribe get those podcasts as they go up and maximize your research time after you listen Before the slate locks to give yourself more time to decide whether or not you agree with our takes on stuff Also, we had Dan Zimborsky a fan grass on covering the spread yesterday breaking down his thoughts on Which releases numbers to trust which ones be skeptical of Some teens he thinks the market is undervalued right now So if you like Dan's work or a fan grass check that out by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts Hey sports fans fandal is now offering an exciting twist the beloved same game parlay now We're producing same game parlay plus which allows you to combine same game parlets across multiple games All you have to do is head over to the fandal sportsbook And navigate to the same game parlay tab of the first game you are interested in select multiple bets in the first game And then plus it up now you can add more bets from other same game parlay labeled games Head over to fandal sportsbook today and out into the same game parlay plus must be 21 plus and present in eligible states gambling problem Call 1-800 gambler was the fandal comm slash RG in Arizona call 1-800 next step or text next step to 533 42 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Louisiana 1-877-770 stop in New York 1-877-8 hope and why our text hope and why in Tennessee call the red line at 1-800-899-789 or in West Virginia Visit 1-800 gambler net pitching preview for this Tuesday main slave Joe Musgrove Is the highest salary pitcher on fandal checking in at $11,000 followed by Corbin burns at 10 a we got Robbie Ray at $9,900 Walker Bueller's 97 from Breval des is 95 we have Patrick Corbin Kyle Gibson and Justin Steele as the others at $8,000 are higher and I think when you're looking at the pitching for today I was talking about there are good options and there are good options But despite that I still think that the top option for today is very clear And that to me is Corbin burns at the top I think you put them at the top and you forget it from there with course being less attractive for today I am okay with burns being definitive the top guy at 10 8 He's facing the pirates at home and the pirates Predictably struggling this year. They are last on the slate in both WRC plus and isolated Slugging against ratings based on their current active roster since the start of last year So a large sample strikeout rate about average at 23% but those low WRT plus and ISO numbers about what you expect So the situation for burns is very good and he seems pretty close to the guy. He was He was last year to open this year strikeouts are down a bit and the bad of all numbers have gotten worse But most of that was from opening day when he just seemed a bit off I was on him against the Cubs didn't seem great there last time out They bounced back a an 18.6% swinging strike rate in his second start He had eight strikeouts across seven innings and he also threw 97 pitches So pitch count no longer concerned the Corbin burns the swinging strike rate through two starts combined is now 16.1% which is very much in line with where he was last year The velocity is good to despite pitching and some colder weather which does play a factor in velocity so 10 8 is a lot to pay for Corbin burns, but I Was kind of expecting like almost 12k for today So, you know, I'll take it for sure when I don't need to splurge as much a hitter He's very worth it So I feel very comfortable making burns my top play of the day the second pitching slot behind burns depends on your comfort level with Robbie Ray and His velocity is down big and it's enough where it is a pretty massive red flag We just have to decide if it's enough to fully push us off ray for today I'm on the fence about it personally the velocity is legitimately rough because last year he averaged 94.6 miles per hour on a sports team fastball that is down two ticks this year to 92.6 his sliders down 1.7 miles per hour and Those decreases in velocity are translated to decreases in key metrics Specifically his swinging strike rate against him is 10.9 percent down from 15.5 percent last year So I think the concerns are legit There are a couple caveats worth mentioning though The first one is that those games are Minneapolis in Chicago and those games are very cold and velocity is typically down When it is colder, he was also facing the twins and white socks on the road And those two teams have a lot of guys who can bang lefties So does that fully erase the concerns not for me I think that's why he's not the top arm for me But I do think there is a chance that the dips for ray were due to match up in weather Those things will not be as big of a factor for tonight. You see some the Rangers They are definitely an improved offense from what they were last year, but they're still not an elite This active roster is a 24% strikeout rate against lefty since the start of last year where they 7% walk rate So it could be rough for Ray and if you want more safety Violence now how to get to Joe Musgrove, but I think if you're just gunning for stealing You know, you got burns locked in for cash games. You want to go for a ceiling in tournaments I think I like raise more at $9,900 Despite what I think are pretty legitimate concerns around his first couple of starts So to me Robbie Ray is number two behind Corbin Burns Despite the fact I do have legitimate concerns around his velocity and his start to the season As far as the value play goes I think you have two options both of whom are in terrible match ups Those guys are Nathan Ivaldi and Max Freed Freed gets a Dodgers Evaldi gets the Blue Jays and Evaldi Really struggling with hard contact. That's not something I'd want to do against the Jays So I think I'm gonna go with Freed here But the Evaldi does have more strikeout upside and is at least an option for today As for free the bad of all suppression is why I am here His slider velocity is up this year and it's something that started with him last year and over his past 11 starts with that Slider velocity being up. He's allowed just a 24% fly ball rates with a 36% hard hit rate those are very good numbers and I think we can buy into them because Freed over his career has been good at suppressing hard contact Not surprisingly this has led to a 2.2 to ERA for Freed across his 11 starts now His first two starts this year were not crazy good and they came against Lester competition But I'm betting he'll be good over the long run this year The swinging strike rate last time out for Freed was 14.1% for him. That is a very high mark The Dodgers not surprisingly very good against lefties So it's not an ideal situation but what we're getting with Freed is a good real-world pitcher for $7,400 and There may be some extra upside in him this year with the slider potentially Being a bit different. So I will take that upside and roll with it Again, though I would at least look into E of Aldi if you want another lower salary option at pitcher But I think to me Freed is my preferred guy because the bat of all suppression I think is better and sustainably so with regards to him Let's move now to the stacking section I talked about burns and the pitching section and if we're gonna get there to 10A We need some value batters to make that work And I think we can actually get those from Burns's teammates They're facing JT brew baker brew baker has done some interesting stuff since the start of last year and It's a kind of interesting You know, I think I think that he's shown some spurts of competency But he struggled to open this year which is interesting because he's lowered his foreseeing fastball usage quite a bit from where it was last year and Hasn't worked so far because he has met as many walks of strikeouts. He has a 5.8. He'll interact a VRA He's allowed a 52% fly ball rate That's pretty rough and he's also not getting a lot of widths his swinging strike rate is 10.7 percent. So That's rough so far, which means that brew baker could go back to what he did last year But and I would expect that as well But even even in last year, he had a four or a 5.36 era He's not a big round ball guy did let us some hard contact So the two routes for brew baker are a he can stay doing what he's been doing his first two starts Or B can go back to what he was last year And I think that either of those would make it okay to stack the brewers for today I think it's okay to take the discounts here and be high on the brewers from a stacking perspective Making it a bit easier for you to use a Corbin burns as your pitcher for today So looking at this Milwaukee team again We're talking about all with the place with cold temperatures for today Milwaukee will not be one of them I'm guessing the roof will be closed which would make it 70 degrees there It would make it just one of three games with the temperature at 70 or higher So I do think that grades that well for Milwaukee overall for today I'd specifically be highest in the lefties here and I was looking you know researching for this late yesterday and before They played their game last night. I was like, yeah, you know, Yellich is hitting the ball hard but not lofting it And I was like, okay, that's at least something I wasn't like fully on board and then he hits like a bomb like 6,000 feet to center field So I'm like, okay, we're we're back in a Christian Yellich. Obviously. He's there for sure Colton Wong Omar Narváez, they're all high on our list and I will use those guys here as a Stacking focal point when trying to jam in Corbin burns as far as our second stack, you know, we get the good weather with Milwaukee We will not get that for our second and third stacks But there aren't enough good options in good weather spots at least for me to be fully on board with going there I do like the twins despite the weather in Kansas City If he's in Carlos Hernandez and he's gotten good results the starter He has a 3.56 era Since he moved into the rotation last year the peripheral zone not quite there in 13 appearances Hernandez has a 5.31 skill interactive era His strikeout rate is 16% which means he's letting up a lot of balls and play the batted ball numbers are fine 37% heart rate 39% fly ball rate those are okay and They're more okay when you're getting strikeouts and limiting the balls and play if you're letting up a lot of balls and play It can become a pretty big issue We saw the downsides of that is most recent start where Hernandez was facing Cleveland He led up four runs across four to third innings He has just two total strikeouts across his two starts and that's not something you expect to translate into good Long-term results. So I think eventually we'll see regression from Hernandez with this sub four era As a starter and that could happen tonight against this twins offense There's a chance that Byron bucks in his back with the twins for today He is scheduled to travel with the team and he said Monday that he was optimistic about his knee So wouldn't be shocked he's back in there I wouldn't necessarily expect it based on the initial diagnosed about a week But could happen for sure one guy I find super interesting here though is Louisa rise He has never hit for power, which means I've never liked a rise for DFS He is lofty in the ball a bit more this year though So although not expecting a huge power binge. I'm becoming more open to him I have very rarely used a rise in my DFS playing life But I'm open to at least considering it here based on a slight uptick in his fly ball rate He doesn't hit the ball like super soft or anything So not typically my cup of tea, but I'm more receptive to him now that I have been previously with that fly ball Potentially ticking up at least a bit as far as the third stack goes I've liked you say kikuchi for a couple separate times throughout his career He always looks like you love a Velo spike at the beginning of the year and you can get some strikeouts You know, I'll take those two things for sure But there are some lingering issues that are still there with kikuchi And I think I will stack the red socks against him for today I will note before we dive too much into this though the red socks might be in the midst of a COVID outbreak So if they lose guys like, you know, Xander Bogart, Shady Martinez, Trevor Storey And they lose like the guys we turn into against lefties downgrade them for sure I don't know who might be out for today, but it sounds like there are some weird stuff going on there So just keeping on that with that Specifically for kikuchi the big issue he has had is hard contact because if you look back for the full season last year Kikuchi lit up a 47% hard hit rates That is a crazy high number and it led to a 4.41 ERA Despite having the good aforementioned played discipline numbers and it got worse as the season went along But now kikuchi goes to a new team and that can sometimes lead to changes They'll unlock something fresh set of eyes stuff like that So I was curious how kikuchi would look in his blue jays debut But it didn't change that one key area He let up 12 balls and play in his first starts and nine of those had an exit below of at least 75 miles per hour His fly ball rate allowed was 50% We think he could she let up just four or just 10 home runs across 10 starts or 13 starts the more change up So the homers haven't been a huge issue so far, but now He's typically playing in more hitter friendly parks This will not be that for tonight given the weather, but I think it's a good profile for stacking I will roll at the Red Sox here and see if they can you see if kikuchi can turn things around if he can't the Red Sox could really knock him around the up and When doing so, I'm gonna be high on Bobby Dalbeck He is off to a brutal start this year the results are bad But a lot of that seems to come down to bad luck He has a 250 actual Woba like his actual was 250 but his expected Woba baseball savant is 355 so Dalbeck is still snacking the ball his strikeout rate is actually down to 30% and He torches lefties, so I know I will not be alone in doing this but Bobby Dalbeck will be a key focus for me tonight at $2,600 and Not saying he's gonna double-dunk, but I wouldn't be shocked if he did so Bobby Dalbeck Bobby Dungbeck a focal point for me for tonight the Red Sox and keep an eye on Who is not available for today because it could be kind of bad based on the initial reports of the Red Sox But at least as of right now, I am on board with stacking them for today Things to watch for this late. We do have a course field slate for today. The Phillies are at course again today I obviously don't mind them, but it's not as good of a spot against Kyle Freeland He has struggled to open the season, but the bat a ball numbers has still been very good with a lot of ground balls So I'm on board the Phillies for sure, but I do want to lower them due to a low fly ball matchup I think it's a good flop like situation like that. I was on them last night. They were terrible They come back here at a worse matchup and do well So maybe maybe this is a good spot to buy back in and people are off them But just straight up I'd rank them fourth for stacking for today Talked about the Red Sox and their COVID situation the A's very similar. They're dead They were down a lot of guys yesterday I think they had seven guys placed in the COVID IL that includes Jet Lowry who would have been a stacking option They're facing Chris Ellis today most likely and Ellis struggled the big leagues last year with a 52% hard hit rate allowed So I'm okay with them broadly the A's for today just keep in mind that they are pretty depleted and not necessarily in the best spot from a DFS perspective due to some bodies. They have lost recently Finally, I'm not opposed to some Royals stacked today They're facing Chris Archer and Archer threw four shutout innings in his twins debut That's good, but his swing and strike were with 7.9% let up a lot of hard contact So it was similar issues to what he showed in that short spurt as a starter last year The Royals salaries are very low So I'm okay with dabbling in them here and seeing what happens again weather in Kansas City not ideal But I think that for the most part we're gonna have to take some constellations the weather I think the one key exception is the Brewers for today So the Brewers are the place to stack in good weather and you'll have to make some constellations elsewhere for your batters for today Let's finish up here with some home run calls for this late. I was gonna go With JD Martinez is my boring call and that is boring But I think I'm gonna go Bobby Dahlbeck is my boring call and like I just feel really good about him for today basing off against Kikuchi Kikuchi can get some strikeouts that could be a concern with Dahlbeck, but I just loved like the the The all-out profile Bobby Dahlbeck's the boring home run calls a guy at $2,600. I'll go with it Bobby Dahlbeck It's the boring a dinger call for today. The fun one. I'm gonna go Omar Narvaez I have like a soft spot for him with regards to DFS because like people hate using catches on Fandall for a good reason for the most part but Narvaez actually has power and In a good matchup. He's playing likely indoors for today I think it's a good spot. So the home run calls officially for today Bobby Dahlbeck and Omar Narvaez Maybe we'll get to out of Dahlbeck for today as well That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot But again, make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed to get these podcasts right as they go up Each and every day to maximize that research time before you are locking in your line-ups in case you decide you don't agree With what we say here on the show if you've got questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J-i-m-s-a-n-n-e-s you can also follow the fan to a podcast network at fan to a podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your DFS line-ups. It's nice We'll talk to you once again on Wednesday or another slate. This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network