 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Market Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN 8.30 a.m. Thursday morning, 60 minutes to go until the opening bell. We're going to get initial weekly jobless claims in a moment as we speak, waiting for that to hit the tape. Right now you've got markets in negative territory. Dow futures, negative 76 points right now, trading at 26,979, S&P, negative by nine points, trading at 3,007. We got the Nasdaq futures, negative by 13 points, 11,078, jumping over to commodities, go contract. How about it? New all-time highs just in the last about half hour. Those highs made in the 8.15 a.m. bar, it made in the last 15 minutes, 2,076. Gold, just don't stop folks. And as we speak, we're getting the weekly jobless claims, that number coming in at 1.186 million, slightly under what the market was looking for in terms of 1.423. So we have an initial jobless claims, 1.186, I believe that is the 20th, 20th consecutive week of a million plus jobs coming in, but under what they thought it could be, and this, of course, ahead of tomorrow's big number, non-farm payroll numbers, we'll be waiting for that number, especially after the private payrolls released on Wednesday, a little bit of a miss yesterday morning in terms of barely 100,000 plus jobs added for the private payrolls. We get weekly initial jobless claims, 1.186 million. The market was looking for 1.423. Okay, with that in mind, there's gold, there's gold reacting to the market, and how about the S&Ps getting a little bit of a pop on that weekly initial jobless claims number? Now, interesting, I was up early this morning saying, ah, the market looks great, right? We're hovering around 3320, pretty close to where we're at, and then just 6 a.m., you trade down 20 points from 3320 and the S&Ps, excuse me, almost down within half a point of 3,000, and then look at this little acceleration we're getting on that jobs number 3312 and rising in the S&Ps right now. NASDAQ futures up five points, there's a little pop from 11,080 back to 11,100. As we saw, gold catching a pop as well to the downside though on that jobs, number silver contract up a buck 27, how about a 28 handle on silver this morning, 28.54, notes and bonds, a little bit of higher price and lower yield, we're climbing kinda right back up to where we were for the highs towards the end of the day on Tuesday, the 10-year right now, up five ticks at 140.07, the 30-year up 15 ticks at 182.18, we're looking at a 10-year yield right now, 1.525%. Okay, jumping around to what else we have going on in the markets, we'll jump back into it right away and we'll start things off. Stock's making the biggest moves, big day of earnings, we get Uber after the bell along with many others already this morning, Hilton out with their numbers losing 61 cents a share for the second quarter, wider than the 31 cents a share the market was looking for, revenue below estimates as well, suffering from the pandemic, induced drop in travel, demand, HLT I believe is their symbol, there's Hilton, a little bit of volatility from about 80 to 79 on their numbers. Restaurant brand, so I got this one up here, restaurant brands, Burger King's parent revenue falls 25% as coronavirus weighs on sales, quarterly revenue fell 25% to 1.05 billion, Tim Horton same store sales plunged almost 30%, Burger King's fell 13.4, Popeyes reported soaring same store sales growth nearly 25%, thanks to that chicken sandwich, restaurant brands was a symbol, QSR, there's some volatility for you, up to 60 on that initial pop, we just started the conference call at 8.15 a.m., excuse me, 8.30 a.m. when we came on the air and you're basically flat right now, 57.74, we're hovering right at around that area. All right, let's see if we got, now that's just talking about general stuff in terms of stocks, getting a little bit of a pop and getting back into these earnings numbers. All right, let's see what else we got down here, Viacom, the media company reported quarterly profit of $1.25 a share, beating 95 cents a share estimate, revenue came in above forecast, Viacom pointed to a rapid growth in its streaming business and said it's successfully managing through the effects of the pandemic. Is Roku down here? There it is, all right, we'll get to Roku, because streaming, I wanted to get the Roku, Viacom, V-I-A-C, there's your volatility on Viacom from 26 up to 28 back to 27.01, and why not, let's jump over to Roku, some strong numbers for Roku, but talk about price for perfection. You initially spiked pretty quickly to positive territory, but we give it up Roku off about $7 right now, at 158.56 for Roku, the expected move in this stock yesterday, about $18, so not quite where you might've thought that that could go, but for some context of where Roku has been, there's some volatility folks, we're gonna open at about 160, so for some context, pretty much in the upper range of where we've been in Roku, and to get into what Roku says, okay, so they lost 35 cents a share, let's get into some of the, because they are streaming billions and billions of hours, where's the numbers, come on, let's see what we got here, they're not really giving you a good wrap up, I read a couple things last night, so they lost 35 cents, smaller than the 50, they were market looking for, revenue beat forecast, but the shares have come under pressure after the streaming video device maker said advertising industry uncertainty will persist through the third and fourth quarters, yeah, one of the things they said, here we go, believe that it will be well into 2021 before TV ad investment recovers, not surprising, right, you think about all the advertising that goes into travel, service, restaurants, vacations, airlines, Expedia, all the above, those just are not happening right now, but nonetheless, let's see, I mean, they're streaming billions and billions of hours, so sales of Roku devices which connect television jump 35% to 111 million, I might be helping that bottom line, I bought some Roku's myself, but only in the last few weeks, so maybe those don't qualify for that quarter, audience stuck at home, of course, platform revenue which includes ad sales, surge 46%, 244 million, the estimate was 239, nonetheless ad revenue not coming back anytime soon this year and the market reacting to that on Roku shares down a bit to about 158 this morning after spiking a little bit lower on their earnings last night. All right, jumping around to what else we have, Zynga, the video game maker raised its full year booking forecast, better than expected quarterly results, digital game maker got a pandemic related boost from increased engagement by players stuck at home during the pandemic, not surprising, right? ZNGA, there's Zynga up from under 10 to 1120 to 1054, we also got match group last night, not sure then, okay, that was two nights ago, but still quite the acceleration talk about sitting at home on your computer, whether it's Tinder, match, online dating, a good time to be in that business from 44, the depths of the lows of COVID, we're now sitting at about 120 on match after their pop on earnings yesterday, and that's after being at about 90 pre COVID. All right, folks, we got the S&Ps, negative by just two points now, check out that little pop we're getting on that weekly jobless claims number from about 306 to 313, negative two points, we got the NASDAQ positive by eight, the Dow positive by eight as well, go contract up $17 at 2066, and let's check out the VIX, the VIX this morning, 2342. Stay tuned, folks, come back, see what else we have on tap for Thursday trading, I'll be right back in three minutes. Many of our new listeners have heard about the Tigers Den, the Tigers Den is a lively community where professional traders and investors can meet, exchange ideas and information in a comfortable moderated atmosphere, hear all of the TFN shows, plus see all of the charts as they happen live and have access to archives of all of those charts. You can test drive the Tigers Den absolutely free for 30 days and greatly enrich your knowledge of these markets and how to make your money work for you. 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Before we do that weekly jobless claims number, just a little bit more insight into what came out at about 8.30 a.m. this morning. Continuing claims or those who have collected benefits for two straight weeks, dropped by 844,000 to 16.1 million. It's quite a number folks. The only encouraging thing you could see out of this and maybe that's where the market charging higher, right? You were looking for about 1.4 million. The last two weeks, we actually saw an uptick in initial weekly jobless claims going on, not what the market wants to see. You gotta like that we actually see a dip in that number. Hopefully that continues, continuing claims. Hopefully we see that number decreasing. But man, oh man, where we are in this market compared to where we were prior, the record. Even this past week's improvement, the total remains well above the pre-pandemic record of 695,000. That's the record folks, ever. And that goes all the way back to 1982. That record was set for the biggest number ever and we are approaching now 20. We're not approaching, we're in the 20th straight week of a million plus jobs, 1.2 million. But the market, the market taking it and they're running with it. And you got the SMPs now positive by one, NASDAQ positive by 18. Watch out folks, we got 17 minutes left in the show. Who knows where we'll be by the time we wait for Mr. Larry Pezzamento coming on live at nine o'clock. Okay, what else we got going on? Quicken Loans. If you wanna buy any of Dan Gilbert, Dan Gilbert, what's his name, come on, where are we? Believe it's Gilbert, right? Where are we? Dan Gilbert, there we go, perfect. If you wanna buy any of his company folks, he's selling it, he's selling it right now and he's not getting the price that he wants to. Be wary of this company. Now, I, full disclosure, I have a Quicken Loans mortgage on my own. There's a reason why he's one of the wealthiest people in the world, talk about making the process streamlined, rocket mortgage, all that stuff. But folks, you don't offer your company out to the public at a time when you think there might be a lot of future growth. You might offer that to the public at a time when you think you've peaked out. Correlate that to the fact that we have record low mortgage rates. They're coming to the public with their shares and the public saying, ah, not so fast. They're gonna start trading today under the symbol RKT for Rocket. They wanted to sell 150 million shares at $20 to $22. They ended up selling only 100 shares at $18. That's raised in 1.8 billion valuing the company at $36 billion. So what did they sell? 5% of the company basically is what they ended up pushing out 1.8 billion. But be wary folks, you know, buying into a mortgage company at a time when almost everybody in the whole world is refinanced at these rates. Maybe the market's picked up. There might be some value in that. But man, be aware of when somebody who has made their wealth in this business says, you know what, I'm gonna start selling pieces of this business to other people because I don't think maybe it might be the best time to be buying that business. Nonetheless, interesting stuff, especially with where we have the bond market right now at 0.53% that 10 year yield going on. In terms of markets overseas, you had the Nikkei last night, down about 410th percent, Shanghai positive by 210th percent, Europe you get the DAX down about 710th percent, the FTSE down 1.7 percent, Cat Caroll down 1.2 percent, tough action going on in Europe. Bank of England holds their rates steady. The story over there gonna be an interesting open today with this market charging higher positive data, but we gotta wait for the non-farm payroll tomorrow, about 24 hours from right now, that'll be interesting, see what we have going on. All right, what else we got going on, jumping back to the stocks with earnings this morning. Contour Brands, the maker of Lee and Wrangler Jeans, they're trading higher this morning, quarterly loss of 22 cents a share, compared the market was looking for a loss of 40 cents, revenue above estimates as well, saying it was in good financial position despite the short-term negative impact of the pandemic. Folks, that's what you wanna hear if you're a long-term investor in any of these stocks, okay? Cause we will return to a form of normalcy, whether it's in six, 12 months, 18 months, two years, whatever it is, we will return to that normalcy. And when companies like, I mean, strong brands, Lee, Wrangler Jeans, right? Their position well to come out of this, KT, where the KTB, Contour Brands, whoops, KTB. And there you see the pot from about 21, 26, we're up to between 22 and 23. They're bid-asked for some context on where this company has been. There's a little volatility from 43 down to 13. And the highs in early June, we're all the way back to about 24. So we're not even gonna be up to there yet, but 22 to 23 for the maker of Lee and Wrangler Brands. All right, what else we got going on? So Live Nation, talking about a tough time to be in the business of selling concert tickets or sporting events. They lost 267 a share. The market was looking for only 208. The live event promoter also saw revenue well below estimates. Yeah, pandemic virtually eliminating large gathering in all events, period. L-Y-V for live is their symbol, L-Y-V. This morning, pretty muted. We're gonna open a little bit lower. There's your drop to 46.13. We were trading at about 47.64 for Live Nation events. So Roku, we covered out with their numbers last night. Zynga, out with their numbers. Etsy, Etsy, quarterly profit of 75 cents a share, well above 39, the online marketplaces revenue also being forecast. 19 million new and reactivated buyers. That is a big number, folks. E-S-T-S-Y and talk about short live. They come out with a number, spiked to 144 and the market says, ah, hold on, not so fast. We're actually lower this morning at 1.3306 on Etsy and Costco. July comp sales increased 13.2%. Now that's July, right? It's not March when things were really getting the beginning of things. It's not April as we were in the thick of, you know, just of grocery stores completely sold out of many of the staples. But July increased at 13%, more than twice what the Wall Street was looking for. 75% jump in digital sales, Costco. There's your action on Costco from 340 to 345 and this stock has already had quite a run pre-COVID. You were dealing with about 323. You never made it below 280 and then we're now making, I believe that's gonna be new all-time highs. There you go. Talk about a stock, folks. From 2008, 2009, we're trading at $24. We're gonna open at about 345 for Costco. All right, what else we got? We got Uber earnings after the bell today. We'll be watching that closely. Uber shares up marginally so far this morning, 33.46. You really started charging higher on Tuesday up to the tune of almost 5%. You back it up Monday, quite a day as well from almost $30 to closing it out above 31. Uber will have a lot to answer for for themselves in terms of ride sharing, what's going on there. But of course, their food delivery business, buying postmates and how that plays into their business. You look at where we've been. The recent run from 13 all the way to as high as 38.78 when the market peaked out in early June. If you put on the Fibonacci number for this full rise, we've now backtracked to the 38 number twice. Taking off a little rocket ship now above that 23.6 retracement. They'll have their numbers after the bell tonight and we'll be watching Uber closely. Sure, Lyft gonna be reacting as well. Lyft's been trading somewhat well this week as well. There you see the pop on Lyft trading up to 31 from the 28th earlier this week. Stay tuned folks. Come back, see what else we have on tap for earnings. Big day of earnings on Thursday. Big day of earnings tomorrow as well. And of course we get those non-farm payrolls. We'll take a look at gold. Also gold hanging tight right near 2,070. Stay tuned folks. I'll be right back in three minutes. Come on back. Back in the day, I joined the Hotel California in 2006. And like many of you was drawn in by bam, as well as whatever you think about, you bring about whatever you focus on grows. You see, I believe that everything in life happens for us, not to us. And Tom ignited the fire within me to wanna learn how to master the markets. So how did I go from knowing nothing about technical analysis to becoming the number one market timer for the S&P 500 in 2018 and the number two market timer in 2019? 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We got the NASDAQ up 17 and we get the DAO up 40 points. Goal contract, as I mentioned, holding steady at the 2067 price point. You put this in some context folks. Quite a run we've had on gold for those COVID laws of about 1415 in the span of three days. You trade on March 20th at 1457. By the span of March 24th, you're at almost 1700. We're sitting at 1800 on July 17th and we're sitting at 2070, holding strong in that goal contract. Quite a rocket ship indeed. We'll see where we end up as it does not seem to be stopping. All right, what else we got going on? Some of the cannabis stocks, you have Kronos out with their numbers this morning. Disappointing a bit, we closed at about $7 yesterday. You're down 30 cents to about $6.70. They came out with a net loss, excuse me, a quarterly loss of 31 cents a share. They were looking for, let's see, 16 cents a share and they had 9.88 million in sales this quarter that's up from 7.6 million in the same period last year but the market was looking for about 12 million. Some of these cannabis stocks. If you're thinking about long-term investing folks, I've talked about it in my newsletter. There's some extreme value in the long-term for some of these stocks as cannabis legalization comes mainstream, whether it's in the US. Well, no, in the US because these stocks really operating in Canada and you get into the legal US market folks and things are quite a different story. I mean, look how we're hanging. You really gotta put them back on almost three-year weeklies to see the full pain that you've had from $1.50 to 25 to seven on Kronos. Canopy growth from $6 to 60 to 19 on Canopy. Just huge moves. Aurora cannabis, another one people love to follow up to 150, down to 10. Tilray, be careful folks. Put some stop losses in here. The other way you can do it, Constellation Brands, strong company. They got a big investment in Canopy but they pulled back a bit over that last week as well. All right folks, stay tuned. Larry Fezzavento coming up live next, markets and positive territory. We'll be right back folks, stay tuned for Larry.