 Unless Colin Powell, I'm joking, Jerome, unless Colin Powell says something crazy, freaky, naughty, freaky, crazy, freaky naughty, the bull should have an end of the day run. We'll see. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com. We can update show hope everybody is having a blessed, wonderful, healthy, happy, smiling weekend. Hope everybody is doing great. Hope everybody's having a great summer. We are less than about a week away from Labor Day. That's kind of like the last inning of the game for summer before the kids go to school, least in the Northeast here. I know a lot of you kids started in Florida, but this is the last leg of summer. So enjoy yourself because again, especially for all of us who live anywhere in the Northeast, especially in the tri-state area, we know how mother nature loves to play with our emotions during the winter. So enjoy what we have here. Speaking of playing with emotions, I don't think, if you guys remember, usually I don't do a Thursday night video. I did a Thursday night video because once I was just way too tired. I don't think I could have came in with more of a bullish stance for Friday's session that was possible, right? We had this wonderful, wonderful rally. And again, this is going to be a little bit important going into this week. So bear with me a second, right? So we had this really wonderful rally for in a month, right? We took reclaimed the 50-day moving average, again, very, very big level coming up here, right? We claimed the 50-day moving average, had a four-week rally. I don't want to use the word topped out, but again, that might not be the craziest word to use, right? Had this really, really big move, went down seven days in a row. And Thursday, it looked like, Wednesday, going into Thursday, it looked like the sellers were tired. It looked that way, right? Because what happened on Thursday, we reclaimed the 50-day moving average, this 17 level that we talked about several times, right? If you see here, right here, from August 23rd and August 24th, it got rejected twice at 317. And then finally, Thursday, it reclaimed the 50-day moving average. And if you've been watching this video even more than once, you know how important the 50-day moving average it is for me. It's not the end will be all, but it does show you who has control of short-term sentiment. So going into Friday's session, I was ridiculously bullish. I mean, I couldn't, I can't even put it into more words how more bullish I was. And we knew that the only thing, matter of fact, I think Kyler already put it into the intro here, I don't, the only thing I said that could possibly derail this rally, right? Or potentially what could happen on Friday, if Chairman Powell is speaking in Jackson's hole, that's what I said, right? Can say some freaky naughty, freaky naughty stuff. And that's exactly what happened, okay? Whatever he said, and again, I just don't care really word for word what he said, it's all about price action, whatever he said did freak out the market participants. And we went from reclaiming 317 short-term sentiment off the five-day moving average to reclaiming the bottom range. And you could see how many times it stopped at 313. So we reclaimed 317 to the upside only a day later to lose that 317 and lose the bottom of the range here at 313. And you guys remember that level that we were talking about in the beginning of the week before we reclaimed, right? I thought there was a shot at 310, 311. Well, they went through 310, 311 like it wasn't even there to close around 307 on the queues. And the reason why that's so significant, and again, kind of let me just kind of back test for a second. Number one, I've always maintained this fact. Our job is just to gather information, okay? I've said this time and timing again, if Friday's price action didn't prove it, I don't know what market you're looking at. Our opinions are based on the previous night's research, right? It's our data, okay? We don't know what the market's going to do. Like I said in the previous video, if I knew for sure we were going to rally up this five day all in both hands, both hands, both feet, two eyes, two ears, all in, right? On the long side. Again, we don't know, right? We don't know where all idiots, our opinions don't matter. The only thing we can do, like I said, is continue to take in data and make determination our game plan based on the previous night's late data. So the fact that we reclaimed the five day moving average, that was super duper bullish. That was our data. And now the question is what happens next, right? And this is where we always talk about that the market is the greatest reality show that's not on television. It's just unscriptive. We don't know what's going to happen. One word from the chairman, one word for anybody, one word, one macro event, one headline news, and everything goes to hell in a hand basket. And I tell you, you know, look, when he started speaking, they started taking down the market. And all I kept on saying is we got to give the bulls, right? The first half hour, we got to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. We got to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt. And what happened actually is as soon as he stopped speaking, if you guys remember, for like two minutes, the NASDAQ engulfed what he said, and we went from down 80 points or so in the NASDAQ to green for like three minutes. And I was like, all right, let's wait for the 10 o'clock confirmation. Let's see where we are. I think, I think short's got trapped, right? That was my thinking. And then next thing you know, like five minutes later, everything starts losing the bottom of the range. And I was like, well, wait a minute, what's going on here, right? And you could start looking and I'll show you the pivots in a second. Initially, I started putting in, as you can imagine, all long pivots just because again, from last night's research and the previous night's research. But once we started losing, and this is kind of where we pivot, right? We pivot pun intended, I guess, to kind of the other side of the market, not because the market's going down, because we start seeing technical damage. And as soon as we started seeing, you know, 10 o'clock, 1030, 11 o'clock, just the market wasn't rallying, wasn't really selling off yet, right? Just wasn't, you know, still down 70, down 80 points on the NASDAQ. But once we started getting down to that 313 level on the, you know, 313 level on the bottom of the range, I was like, well, wait a minute, something is wrong here. And once you started seeing everything started losing life, you started automatically going on the other side of the ledger. And the one thing I've always maintained to traders, especially if you're an active trader, you have a right to not get painted in the corner. And that's kind of the whole way of kind of how my career is, especially in the last 12 years, you want to trade both sides of the market, but you want to trade both sides of the market, not on feel, not on anticipation. You want to trade on both sides of the market because market's telling you technically, hey, your thesis is wrong. I don't give a crap that you will bull bias the night before. It's not here anymore. The market is telling you that this candle has taken out not only yesterday's low, which is a big red signal. It took out the previous range low, basically the whole day of buyers and sellers commingling at levels. And now you have to start looking at the dark side. And that's exactly what happened. And unfortunately, so many new traders, even if you're not, even if you're not an investor, investors, again, this video is really not for you investors, you're sitting in positions, maybe, you know, your stock goes higher year from now, maybe it goes higher week from now, we don't know, we're not talking to you guys, you guys are completely different animal. We're talking about from the day to day, guys, the intraday levels. Once your thesis gets blown up, guys, okay, you have two choices, you could either fight, okay, fight reality, and fight the tape, or you can switch to both sides. Again, this is where you have to if you're an intraday trader, I believe you have to trade both sides of the market. It's like having one hand and not using the other. That's what I said, right? But most important is you have to have the flexibility of putting yourself in a position that you're trading the market you have, not the not the market you want. Because if you were still looking for the market to bounce, after we not only took out the previous days low, which is a huge red flag, but we took out the previous previous range low, then you're sitting and praying, right? And sitting and praying is a great fundamental exercise, but you're not in control of your risk. You're not in control of your money, you're in God's hands. And again, as much as I have a really deep, strong belief that there's a higher power out there that is kind of controlling my life or helping me steer my life and making right decisions, I promise you as the day is long, God doesn't care that you're a long Tesla and it has to bounce. It doesn't have to bounce if it's technically broken. If it's technically losing the previous days channel. So as much as we, you know, all rely on our faith and we believe and this that the other thing, it doesn't apply to your trading. And this is where I think a lot of traders got really caught off guard on Friday. Okay, you know, you had such a bullish close. My whole thesis was absolutely bull bias. But once we saw the only thing that confirmed prior to pal speaking was snow, again, we'll get to the pivots in a second, you can see we went lit lit like just like this, we went from bull buys from I see, I don't want to say bull buys from buy buys, the sell buys very, very quickly. But I will tell you this much. I didn't believe even when we started putting in pivots to the sell side, I did not believe that we were going to have this massacre on Friday. Okay, I did not. Like if you notice, if you guys remember, our first two trades on the downside was Tesla and it was Microsoft, right? And if you guys remember, they were just scalps, right? There was scalps, you know, Tesla went down some, Microsoft went down some, they were just scalps. All of a sudden, like an hour later, that's when everything got really, really exaggerated. And that's the one thing I was thinking about it over the weekend. There is no way, especially because we were, you know, buy buys the day before, there's no possible way, at least I'm a human being, at least that's the way I think. There's no possible way I could have possibly turned around and go, well, you know what, now we're going to go down 4%. It's not one of those things. So I don't think anybody could have prepared, even if you were prepared for the downside pivots, I think nobody was mentally prepared that you're going to see this big of a destruction Friday afternoon after the previous day's channels, which was very, very odd. But again, let's let your worst problem be that you're taking positions off too early. Because again, the only time you're supposed to really, really ride down positions is when they're technically underneath supply. And this is kind of where we want to start the video for next week. Okay, so all of this, right, all of this was very, very bullish. And even the days that we had back tests, right, if you guys remember, even the first back test above the 50 day moving average, you had to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt because again, this is a big, big run, rest, and the market took off again. Here's another decline and the market started rallying again. But now we're getting very, very close to a very big level. Okay, and this is kind of where, for all you guys who are a little bit of a longer term investors, this is where you really should pay attention to this video. It doesn't make a difference what I said in the first 11 minutes. This is kind of where it's the most important. Do you guys remember, right, do you guys remember when we lost the 50 day moving average, right, and follow this blue line, right? This is the 50 day moving average. Once we lost the 50 day moving average, this started a sell biased market. Okay, because again, the 50 day moving average is super important. Okay, it's not like the five West control of, you know, short term sentiment, because you can see here on Thursday, we reclaimed the five on Friday, we lost the five, right, you don't reclaim, usually don't reclaim and lose the 50 day moving average in the same day, very, very rare. So what happened here is, and this is kind of where you learn from the past, so you don't, you don't, you repeat your mistakes. And if you guys remember, the first time we closed below the 50 day moving average, this started a seven month decline. Okay, this seven, and we talked about videos prior to the 50 day moving average, we kept on saying, hey, if you're a longer term investor, just understand, again, I get it, you're not a day trader, it's not going to probably affect you on a day to day scale. But if we lose the 50 day moving average, you're going to have a problem on your hands. Even if you are a shorter term trader, you knew, listen, once the 50 day got lost, you do not want to be long. Anything under the 50 day moving average, you can have a problem. Maybe it might not happen in one day, but you're going to have a problem. And as soon as we started building below the 50 day moving average, again, we have a massive, massive decline. Yes, we had some good rallies in the process. This is why I called those rallies probably the most orderly I have seen in bear scenarios in a very long time. But yet the whole theme was underneath the 50 day moving average. And we kept on going lower and lower and lower and lower. And there was a lot of destruction, especially from the really big world stories that worked from 2020 to 2021. So now we're not there yet, right? We're not there yet. But this is the level here, guys. And again, if you're just watching the weekend broadcast, just listen to this level here. You see this 303 level, we're not there yet, right? We're a 307 and who knows, maybe the bulls step up and just kind of negate pal speech this week, whatever the case may be. But put this level for the future. Okay, if we lose the 50 day moving average, and again, grant that we're still $4 away. But if we lose the 50 day moving average, just reference to the past, the past wasn't that long ago. It was just right over here, right? It was on January, February, April, March, right? We were March. So reference to March, reference to the first time we lost the 50 day moving average, what happened for the next, you know, several months, right? So this is the key area for the bulls. The bulls have to hold and reclaim and defend and whatever adjectives you want to use, but they have to reclaim and hold the 50 day moving average. Because if the bears do seize control of the 50 day, again, all you got to do is right here and see what happens next. So if you are a longer term investor or you're just carrying a book right now that you're starting to give back some of the profits that had to run for the last several weeks, be really conscious of this area. Because what's going to happen is if we do give back the 50 day moving average, it's going to start another sell signal. It's not an opinion. This is, you could see it with your own eyes, right? Light blue line, right? Light blue line, right? This is defense. Do I think the bulls probably defend the 50 day moving average the first time around? I probably do, right? I probably do. So maybe this 50 day event is not an imminent situation, but it's something at least you have to be conscious for in the future. And again, don't be ignorant. You made the mistake once. If you didn't know how important the 50 day moving average was in April and March, well, just look back, right? Again, just all you got to do is look back and see what happened, right? So you want to be prepared. It might never happen. It might be a completely moot point. But again, like I say, every single day going into the next day, it might not happen maybe it does, but don't we owe it to ourselves to at least be prepared for what potentially could happen here. And we all know what happens above the 50 day moving average is good below the 50 day moving average is bad. It's not an opinion. It's not a subject, a subjective conversation. This is reality. This is why these moving average, they save people's lives from guessing. All supply and demand zones are there for you to have a reference point. So you don't have to guess what happens next. Like I say, every video, you're going to be wrong every single day, every single day. Again, I couldn't have been more bullish going into Friday session. But the point is you don't have to be naked, right? You don't have to be unprepared. You don't have to be sitting there in a fetal position after the fact that happens. You could prepare for it and take necessary steps to avoid it. But after the fact, if your money is gone and you knew these levels are very, very important, and you put on your blinders and just didn't care because you heard some schmuck on social media talk about, well, yeah, the 50 day moving average is important, then it's a little bit too late. So be productive and adult, know these levels, understand the significance of these levels from a macro point of view, and make sure that you're trading always, whether you're an investor, short term trader from a position of strength, not a position of weakness. So let's talk about Friday session. Yeah, it was crazy. It was definitely, definitely crazy. So everybody and again, everybody, if you guys watch the video for the whole week, everybody knows kind of knows by now my opinion of what happened with Tesla. I thought it was such a sucker's bit. Everybody a retail screaming, retail screaming, you have to buy it ahead of the split. Why? It's the same valuation. I think we made this case for, I think four nights in a row, and then finally retail got trapped. What happened? Tesla split, nothing happened, and yada, yada, yada, now gave us two levels, right? And this is why I love pivots, right? You're not falling in love with the stock. You're falling in love with the price action. And here is a perfect example. We knew how important 304 was, right? 304 to the upside, 291 to the downside. That's all I cared about. I didn't care about what was going to happen with deliveries and China and giga plants and Elon and pregnant another human being. I didn't care about that, right? All our job was literally take advantage of the channels. We don't know where Tesla is going to be. I'm stupid. I'm an idiot. How the hell am I supposed to know where Tesla is going to close? We're just trying to win our interval. That's it. And whether that interval is a dollar, dollars or multiple dollar, that is the gift from us. That's the gift from being prepared. But if we sit there and hope and pray and try to figure out what happens next and show everybody how smart we are, you're probably not going to be trading a long period of time. And that's the most important part. Fall in love with the channels. Don't fall in love with the stock. So here is the pivot, 304 to the upside, 291 to the downside. And again, like I said, I just scalp Tesla. I didn't think for a second, right? Like I thought, yeah, 291 was going to be a big level. I thought there was a shot, like I said in the webinar, I thought there was a shot at 289, right? And that first pivot went from that 291 area to, you can see where I'm getting 289 was. It was just right above this channel here. And so I said, you know, listen, and again, it doesn't sound like a lot anymore, right? But $2, keep this in mind, $2 move in Tesla is the equivalent of a $6 initial move, right? Presplit. Plus, first of all, I love the way traders. I know I've said this in previous videos and that for a couple of years, but I love the way Tesla is trading. Ridiculous liquidity. And it's so darn orderly. There's no shakes anymore. Once it takes out a level, man, you just have massive, massive liquidity. So maybe you won't get that $10 candle anymore, but you'll get that $3 candle initially. And that $3 candle with some size, liquidity is pretty damn good. So I know a lot of you guys kind of feel exactly the same way as I do. But yeah, I mean, I just didn't think Tesla was going to go down eight, but you know, so that was the key. But anyway, nice little move on Tesla. Obviously, we're watching the bottom of this channel here for the later in the week for a possible extended move along with the rest of the market. Here is the only upside pivot. And that was kind of our clue of, hey, nothing is going higher. Snow 197 needs to build snow and bonkers, absolutely bonkers. Once it took out that 197, it went right to the next supply here. I said, you know, we talked about around 206, it stopped the 205 and 205 60 is just a monster move monster move. And then everything crap the bed. If you notice here, it was all upside pivots, right? Upside pivots never got there, right? Cano upside pivots, one after another upside pivots, upside pivots, even an Amazon open below, right? That 137 50 still could not build above that 37, 3790 38 just nothing was building and everything was getting pulled down. So that was a really, really big red flag. It was all upside pivots, right? In the beginning, snow take on the way up, take on the way up, blah, blah, blah, 206 is supply, right? 206 is supply, I traded 205 56. And once we realized, hey, things are starting to break down below the previous channel. That's when I started putting in, you know, putting in other pivots to the downside, right? Microsoft 274 50 held twice if it builds below can flush. Again, the initial thought was a scalp. It went down, you know, it went down, you know, 70 80 cents, you know, there's a nice little, you know, a little casual, at least in the beginning. And then later in the day, they just completely destroyed him and look where Microsoft closed, right? I wasn't prepared for this massive swan dive. I'm prepared for the massive swan dive going into this week for the potential of the 50 day loss. Zoom, I still like never got there. Nvidia got smashed, absolutely smashed. 168 30 held twice if it builds below can lose its 50 day, right? The 50 day moving average, again, there's a theme here, right? So here is Nvidia, it lost its 50 day moving average, took out the 68 30 took out the 67 and seven and a quarter went all the way down to 62. I mean, again, the market continues downside this week. Look how much room you still have here, right? You got a lot of big, you know, you got a lot of potential. You got a lot of potential if the market continues to go down. 160 60 is set as 60s next stop and went to 62. So big movers here, right? Really, really big movers. So that's it, man. That's it guys. Obviously, you know, I've made a watch list as you can imagine, not a lot of shorts and not a lot of long setups. We'll see, you know, we'll see how the market handles. If there is an inside day, the market gets to bounce tomorrow. Remember, it's only a bounce. The market, again, for the market to go higher, it needs to take out the previous days high, and that's far, far away. I still, again, if you look at what happened to the prices, again, at least my research is giving me downside channels. We'll see how the market opens. We'll see how the market plays out. The only thing we can control is our research and our risk guys have an awesome, awesome remainder of your Sunday. Stay blessed, stay healthy, have an awesome trading week, and with God's help, I'll see you tomorrow. Take care.