 Please give another very warm welcome to Jack Bogle. Thank you very much. That's probably quite enough applause. But I thank you, it's been wonderful to be with you and I asked Mel to move me into the early spot this morning. Because I'm trying to be a good family man. Yes, there is a family out there and its prime member is my wife and every year we sign up for the Philadelphia Orchestra Friday afternoon concerts and we do about six and one of them happens to be this afternoon and I just you must understand that I don't want to say Eve There's something more important than going on going to the concert with you It's being with the Bogle heads and she would probably file papers for divorce Immediately if not giving me maybe a chance to redeem myself. So it's great to be with you here again I've had a wonderful time with you That book signing was so much fun because I had a chance to talk to many of you About whether you were having a good time or not and for reasons that are beyond my contemplation Everybody seems to be having a good time here. I just can't imagine it But I'm glad you are I'm glad you had a good time several people told me they had a good time over at Vanguard yesterday and the management part people actually worked for Vanguard and So we're gonna just do a little Q&A here and take it away now The most asked question a number of people asked this so I'll put this up at the top If you remember last year at the conference You were asked about Vanguard target retirement funds and the life strategy funds and why they are using Investor class shares instead of the Admiral class shares. You said you didn't know but you look into it What was the outcome? Oh? They have decided to use the Admiral shares that's an answer I made up at the moment Mike, do you know the answer to that? Is Mike here? Where are you Mike? Yeah, or do they yes, I do Well one one of the things a lot a lot of us have been pushing is That these are nicely diversified portfolio on a single fund that rebalances automatically and now we're not talking about And necessarily small investors. I agree that people might start with it, but We're also pushing simplification in when you get into your retirement years both for your heirs and your spouse and The life strategy and the target retirement funds are an ideal Fund to hold that so you could have people with 100,000 you could have people with a million dollars in there so It's nice when you have The two sets of shares. I understand you can't have it, but you do have it with the institutional class shares So why aren't the institutional class shares offered to us regular folks? Oh? definitely Exactly exactly and the same the same is true for the life strategy funds because of course the target retirement Funds have a Changing thing, but once you get the target retirement income, it's fixed. It's not going to move and People might not want That allocation they may want one of the life strategy allocations which Remain the same so I think that there's an appetite for both the target retirement and The life strategy funds at the admiral rate whether they're called institutional or what? and as I Say again Mike said that they do have an institutional class, but the most institutional class is offered to large companies Is that right Mike? Yeah, and not not to us regular investors, so we have to choose the investor class shares, but Mike Mike said that normally and there's a lot of truth to it People a lot of people in 401ks and that start out with a life strategy fund or our target date fund and that's a great Way to start because they're small they're small investors and they can still get a nicely Diverse-fied portfolio and a single fund rebalances automatically but the problem is is that we're Have been pushing not not pushing but telling people that there's nothing wrong with holding one fund You don't have to you don't have to hold total stock market total international total bond total You can instead have a single fund you because when you do that you have to rebalance yourself You also would normally get Want to get more conservative as you age, but in the case of the Some investors are learning that they don't want to do this when they retire or they don't have to worry about tax efficiency and in a IRA or 401k So a lot of investors can have hundreds of thousands or even millions of dollars in the single fund when they want to especially when they retire want to simplify things and so there could be in addition to the small investors There could be Very large investors, so I don't have any problem with putting a hundred thousand dollar minimum or something like that On the funds, but I think that they should be available to us regular investors who have qualified for whatever Balance that they set for those funds And as I said, that was the most requested thing last year people were asking about it Jack said he'd looked into it and now this year everybody wanted to know what the result was so Yeah Let me just add a couple of comments about target date funds because I do talk about them at some length Not about the whole idea of balance rebalancing Steady balance throughout your life in the last two chapters of of the book that I guess just about everybody here owns and The new book so this isn't a plug for the book because you already got it But it is not at all clear that there is a better strategy is a target date fund based on your age and retirement date a Better investment than let's say you deciding that you want to be in a life strategy fund at one level of risk or another It's not not at all clear that being in a balance index fund, which we started back in 1992 or three Which is just straight 6040 for all investors all the time. It's not clear that target date funds will give you better returns than that We just don't know nobody knows there is no guaranteed success and In this business you just take your chances and so I conclude in the book That I'm talking about asset allocation how a lot of it is very intuitive I'm not so sure we need to go to you know go from 60.1 back to 60 to rebalance and I'm not even sure that you have to go from 70 to 60 But maybe when you get to 80 you should go back to 65 or something like that I just don't know it all depends then there's no rule it is gonna get you through there and Then you have to take into account when you look at history that bonds used to yield a lot more than stocks and That was a good reason so you come to your retirement and you want more income most or not everybody does But most people do and so you've got a much bigger portion in bonds that will pay you income And that's one of the principles of the target date funds, but it isn't the case anymore And you know, I'm using a future return. Well, let's talk about yield I'm using a yield on bonds about 3% for the next 10 years and that's just based on the very simple division of your bond holders in the ten-year treasury notes yielding about 2.2 percent and and and Corporate bond fund yielding about I think about 4% and you end up with a 3% return And so that's pretty much what you're gonna get not the old eight not the old nine Not the 15 that we got in Paul Voker's era imagine that 15 percent I mean shooting fish in a barrel if you'd bought a zero coupon treasury, nothing would have been better So I think we can say safely that'd be very hard to talk about the bond market And say that in the future nothing could possibly be better than that 3% return. I don't believe that So it's it's very much intuitive. I think Almost hate to say this but people should relax a little bit about the precision of all this or about the certainty of all this there's no certainty in investing and I had this letter that that is in the book. I wrote to a young man who was worried about All the problems in the world and he was trying to set his asset allocation and So, you know, I said to him, you know, sir young man Just as much about whether we're gonna have a time nuclear war as I do or as anybody does You know just as much about whether global trade is gonna complete the crash Which is kind of in the cars, but it may happen I may not you know as much about the effects of Global warming or so we're not supposed to call it climate change as as anybody make your judgment about that and I can't help you With that and you know racial divisions in the country gap between the rich and the poor How is that gonna be reconciled? Nobody knows the answers to that and yet that's an important part of what the market will hold in the future So I said as for me My I'm invested 50% in stocks stock index funds 50% in bonds either are munis in my personal account or or my corporate indexes or Total but not so much total bond market indexes intermediate term in length and And I spent half I said 50 50 and I spent half of the time worrying about why I have so much in stocks And the other half of the time worrying about why I have so little Let's call that the investor's dilemma, and I think from that applause for which I thank you I think everybody is in the room as I said that said oh, yeah No doubt Jack This question is from Dan Wickenhauser He said did you take an active role in the financial literacy of your children and our grandchildren? And if so, how would you recommend that a parent start this process today? Well, you know that's really a good question and somebody mentioned it yesterday But giving their kids a stock that they could watch that kind of thing and believe it or not I did that with my with my oldest son. I bought him four stocks probably five shares of each I can't remember the names of all the stocks now But he put them on as he got these little decals and put them on his lampshade So he wouldn't forget to track them and it got him very interested in the stock market And that's the way to get your kids interested But when it comes to investing burn the damn lampshade And I don't know how one reconciles that gap and it's sort of the fun of investing versus the fun of not having a needy retirement and You know one is long-term in nature one a short-term in nature When you can watch every day and see good things and bad things happen one is roughly like watching the grass grow and So I don't really have a good a good answer to that I have given my grandchildren in Little trust accounts which their parents will only be trustees for Balanced balance index fund. I do it year after year. I'm not sure that's the perfect choice Obviously if you go back 20 years 25 years, I should have put it in 100% and S&P 500 And I should have leveraged it to be honest, but you know, I'm just not into that I don't want to look at it. I don't want to think about it I want to send the check-in at each year in and in my ability to make gifts that aren't taxed get it out of my estate and So they have had an education and balance fund and there's a pretty good section about the what we call it the Bogle model in the book and It shows how the balance the Bogle models, but basically based on the balance index fund was in the top Was did better than the top decile of college endowment funds The top decile of college endowment funds in the last 10 years five years three years And probably one year. I can't remember one that wasn't that but Yeah, and they had Maybe let me guess it one and a quarter percent margin and we didn't have any geniuses running it We had some genius who said balance index is a good idea. I think I can remember who he was Jack this next comment question is I'd be interested in what his views are when he looks at his life long Accomplishments does he ever sit back and realize how many people he has impacted for the better? How much he has impacted the investment industry these impacts are huge and I wonder what it must be like to contemplate your accomplishments well When a question like that comes up one has always called on to quote Sophocles I'm which I'm about to do One must wait until the evening To enjoy the splendor of the day and my evening is not here yet So I'm not really enjoying ready to enjoy the splendor of the day. I said yet and I mean, I do get a lot of enjoyment About you could see this yesterday. I feel badly about it actually Maybe a little too much ego a little too much pride and some of the things I showed you yesterday But it was kind of my year and I thought hell brag about it And it's not a good idea I know that and that's why that quote I gave you at the end about how minuscule we all are in the vast context of space and time So you kind of come down to earth and you also have a lot of lives You have a family life. You have a community life You have a business life and you have a I mean, I would say I have a ministry I'm much more interested in the educated the intellectual side of this business I am in the business side of this business and indeed that article I wrote for the financial Analyst journal their request the one I mentioned yesterday profession versus business professional values versus business values in finance Is to try and strike some balance in all these things you do and I you know, we my wife And thinks I'm bereft of humility Did you follow that all right? and There is there is something to that But I've tried to handle what I I don't want to make this too personal, but I Just This is really weird I may be overexpressing a little bit, but I just want to be the same kind of kid I grew up as I don't want to change. I had high values. I tried to set a good example I took responsibility. I worked hard and Tried to do things the right way to help the community and the investor and anybody else I was working with and that's good enough for me And you know when I look at some of those monkeys for the one of a better word that are in the Forbes list And I talked about yesterday You know, I have no envy they all have more money. No, I don't give a damn not a damn and We have all all we need So I'm not embarrassed in that score and you know, I've done my best to live a good life. I've made some errors along the way But I do like I mean I get letters from shareholders is a more direct answer to your question now I got letters from shareholders pretty much every day To the point where I hadn't gotten one in the morning when noon comes. I say Emily you want to check the inbox And So that's that's good enough for me and the letters are written are incredible the beyond belief in their generosity in their appreciation and You know little things little things mean a lot in life And I just got a letter in response. This was not even an investment letter. This fellow said he talked to me He's a man. I think about 60 he had talked to me was scared He was thought he had to get a heart transplant and he called me up to talk about it. What am I supposed to say? I'm not gonna talk to you So I talked to him encouraged him to do it told him some of the challenges and difficulties and how great it can work out And he got his heart and it's working fine. So I got a letter from him. Well, that's nice You know if you can do something nice for another person for God's sake do it and To quote what I said yesterday from someone you'll probably remember and do it now before we shall not pass this way again And a follow-up on that Jack What would the next Jack Bogle be looking to change? Is there something that is right for a revolution that we will see over the next 40 years? Well, that's a good question. I Don't think so the index revolution comes kind of out of nowhere Comes out of an unwillingness of Wall Street and the mutual fund industry to change in a way that favors the investor and that's just bad economics and bad bad business But the mutual fund industry particularly about Wall Street, too has been able to get away with this Fraud view. Well, don't mean to speak too sharply because the market keeps going up and I use a number something like this If if you started in them, let's say 40 years ago 30 years ago 84. What is that 30 years ago? and Had gotten the index return of around 11 or 12 percent you'd now have I Think around $75 for each dollar you put in $750 maybe and for the investors that got 5% he's got maybe $400 He thinks it to multiply his money four times is something like that and instead of eight or whatever the numbers is I don't have the numbers clearly in mind But that's the kind of difference that there is and he thinks he's in heaven my god I've got four times as much money as I had at the beginning my investment advisor must be a genius My mutual fund manager must be in the greatest business in history, but he's lost most of that return Those kind of returns are not going to be with us for a long long time and indeed giving the person He had perverseness of this business The only way we're gonna get those kind of returns again is we get a good solid market decline Think about that and particularly you who are still putting money to work regularly What do you want today? You should look for a big 50% decline and You know, you keep investing at lower and lower prices So this idea that their market has to go up big news in the paper in New High yesterday The down one up. I think two 100s of 1% Well, I mean that doesn't sound like big news to me. So it's I Think I think we it's an in what we have done is to do the right thing in an industry That refuses to change and put the stockholder at the top of the food chain instead of at the bottom That's not gonna happen twice the next one is a Complaint Jack good It says ask him why he doesn't put a proper link to Bogleheads on his the Bogle e-blog web page His link leads to this forum His link to this forum retains the name die hards.org a search for his site for Bogleheads returns nothing Perhaps he is too modest Oh, wait a minute. I didn't get the question. Are you saying I use die hars.org? Yes. How can I do that? Hey, Mike Mike it never happened did it? I'm sorry Mike. I Didn't ask the question. I just really it's just an example of the incredible modesty. I have you've not observed Now the next thing is a comment says since mr. Bogle is a hero to people here on Bogleheads I was wondering who your heroes are Well, I've been asked that question more than once and So I don't have to agonize over the answer You know in the world of business today You know certainly Warren Buffett has to be on that list If you want to look at our competitors I think Dodge and Cox is the best because they're in the they're not always gonna do well Of course, but they're in the business of in the investment business not in the marketing business And that's a big distinction all no load funds and that kind of thing if you want to go back in history long before the recent popularity boom Hamilton has always been my favorite and When I read the Cherno book he was my favorite before I even read Ron Cherno's book And it didn't weigh it have a thousand pages. I would have bought Cherno's new book on US Grant It's just too heavy for me and I think I'd rather read the books and look at it in my iPad So certainly Hamilton there Benjamin Franklin and his sayings are quoted a lot and they're very much like mine In terms of more contemporary. I still I'm not I'm not gonna say this one because it would get political And I wouldn't want to do that. I've always thought Woodrow Wilson was one of the great presidents He did go to Princeton But he was an idealist An idealist that obviously fell a little bit short if not a lot short in his his racial and decisions decisions to remove blacks from the federal government Back in 1912 or 13. Well, I guess 1915 and That was a shameless thing, but I think if we examined the history we'd see that was tremendous political pressure on him To do that kind of thing and I don't think he dreamed it up himself But he did give and here's a good good one for Woodrow Wilson gave women the vote at least signed the final amendment to the Constitution and so I like Wilson and young people at Vanguard will often ask me what's the secret and this is a Hamilton kind of comment and I said, well, look, they're they're in any secret I said you have assets that I don't have and I have liabilities and you don't have and just make the most of your assets and Minimize your liabilities and you'll do fine But I said in these words almost exact words are in the Hamilton play and that is work a little Harder work a little smarter be a self-starter and that's what I've been telling long before Lynn manuals magnificent musical came out so I Know what day I did that and oh above all above all Walter Morgan my hero I met him when he was 50 and came over to see him for his hundredth birthday and What I had done the slice my second book a common sense on mutual funds was in the process of coming out And but I didn't have a book to show him. So I got the publisher to Give me the cover and The dedication page was dedicated to mr. Morgan and then a page which was like the whole book was printed in blue Because Wellington fund was the first it was a very staid business back in the 30s and Wellington used to distinguish themselves blue Prospectus prospectus printed blue that was in his memory too and he saw all that and You know, he gave me my first break He turned the company over to me when I was 35 years old he was In many many ways Better personal I wouldn't had more balanced life He was a fisherman and a hunter had a place up in the country and that I guess trout fishery fishermen and deer hunter and had his his setters and pointers dogs and So and and he really didn't want to he said later on he turned the company over to me I think when he was about 62 and He said later on, you know, I wish I'd stayed longer But he also said in a magazine that was published Probably in the 90s and the hiring me was the best decision he ever made. So with all the turmoil that came with it He was pleased and I was pleased and I dedicated myself to fixing in the Wellington fund very few people know this story It's in them. It's in my book investment versus speculation and Fixing the Wellington fund was a highlight of my life I had to fix it for Walter Morgan and it was not difficult, you know, I'm not known for some investment genius But all we did was get rid of an investment moron if you forgive the expression and it's amazing. You look like a genius So, you know that would that would be the most of them Jack I'd like to interject something here when you were talking about Walter Morgan. I remember at the first conference in Miami, I Had the job or the pleasure of driving you from the hotel over to tailors for our first conference and I thought to myself what on earth am I going to say to this guy and During the conversation, I kept calling you mr. Bogle and you kept saying call me Jack After the conference when I was bringing you back to the hotel You were telling me about Walter Morgan your mentor and you said I had a hard time calling him Walter and I Hard time I couldn't do it to his face and I said now, you know why we have a hard time calling you Jack It's an older generation thing This this was discussed quite a bit and there's a lot of argument on this Among the Bogle heads says mr. Bogle. What is your opinion on? Bitcoin Bitcoin, I'm sorry Bitcoin Bitcoin. Well, of course, I'm something of an expert in that field And we're bringing out a Bitcoin fund The management didn't want to do it but given my given my standing in the community They do it to be offered soon. It's I think it's honestly ridiculous. It's a currency How does a currency, you know, how does a dollar go to be be worth? $4 the next day. It's speculative I don't fully understand this blockchain technology as they call it. I didn't to have dinner when I was at the CFA Or something. Yeah, it was a CFA speakers dinner and the professor from the University of Georgia who's really expert on all this the blockchain technology And so he sent me his stuff, but I haven't had time to read it, but I'd say Don't go there. Can I be clearer? This is from Lady Geek The question says at last year's Bogleheads conference you predicted that over the next 10 years Stocks gross return would be 4% bonds would be 2.6% your slide presentation Pages 49 to 52, which only Lady Geek could remember It's one year later. Are you still on track? Well, no, I'm not on track Let me be honest. I mean, I'm not sure what that means one year into a 10-year forecast But it means the returns will be much lower than they have been but I want to emphasize this I have never thought or said that this Theory of the sources of returns stock returns come from dividend yields stock returns come from Earnings growth and we add those two together and that gives you investment return and Then stock returns get enhanced or reduced by valuation changes of the P He goes from 20 to 30 you get another 7% a year if it goes from 20 to 10 you lose a 7% a year over the next decade and Those things are not really predictable So we rely on history. I do I think it's 10 years for one and 30 years for the for the PE and So when I say as I do this year 4% and 3% before costs are deducted I say if you don't like my prediction make your own and Just think about how easy that is and the dividend yield is 2% you can't change that and I can't change that the earnings growth I'm using four and you can say it's going to be eight I don't think you're gonna be right, but you're entitled to say that so all of a sudden you're in at 10 8 and 2 and You say I think the valuations are gonna go from 25 times earnings to 30 and that's gonna take the 10 That's let's say 12 Just don't give me the 12 without telling me the components There's a discipline here when someone says I think the market's gonna do 10% a year just tell me please where it comes from and Right now we are my predictions are not looking very good not predictions really but reasonable expectations and You know I'd much rather I guess just constitutionally Be in the low side than the high side, but the math is the math now I could have said I expect more earnings growth and I probably would probably been wise to have put 7% earnings growth instead of six. I'm sorry instead of five six percent Instead of four or five percent, but we'll see there's a lot of time to go and happily with this 10-year forecast I won't be around to know whether it's right or wrong We hope you're a jack not too much And she made a comment that you were a Philly's fan and wanted to know if you think the Phillies are gonna turn it around Well, I certainly was a Philly's fan was okay That answers the question Jack, but they have I mean it's just amazing to me Everybody else seems to produce an iron judge or somebody like that and the Phillies don't and I don't know if it's their farm system or what and I think their management is top heavy They've gotten this young quant right out of What was the Billy Bean movie Mike what was called money ball good story about the investment and that was a fun movie but it's It's we're in the quantitative area era in baseball and people are trying to pick and choose and look at little numbers and That will help some teams for some time and other teams Well, it's just like the investment business and as soon as somebody says there's a winning strategy Everybody else does it and it's no longer winning strategy. This is all so simple and and so The Phillies, I don't know hope springs eternal And this next question is from Victoria who's sitting right next to sue She said Jack, what are your favorite topics in the Bogo heads forum and? Conversely do any topics on the Bogo heads forum concern you? I do you think any topics do more harm than good to for the average investor Well, let me first be honest. I have to work every day And that means I don't I don't see the Bogo heads every day I mean the amount you have on there the number of hits number of comments Are so vast that I just I cannot be a subscriber I kind of count on Mike if he finds anything that's you know relative to what we're doing he and I are doing and He'll tell me about that but as for topics, I mean, I think it's fair game and there's no such thing as a bad question there's just a bad answer and So I think the Bogo heads has been a huge asset enormous asset at a vanguard There's nothing like it out there in the world Read somewhere that's the most popular web investment website of any kind not just you know put together a common ownership In common values, but any website that's there So I love to see it. I usually send a tailor Stuff that might be of interest, but we kind of miss a lot of those I don't send it up in my stuff down and he can decide whether to publish it or milk and decide whether to publish it or not so and I but I do look at it and I do look at the number of comments about what I've said and You know if I said something really stupid, I take those comments to heart, you know You can learn a lot from your mistakes and So I try to do that So congratulations to all of you on having a really really good really really good website and a good I mean thinking the number of investors that you helped and it's the objectivity that counts, you know you're not getting paid and you've done it and it works and So that's a huge service and a huge part of Vanguard's growth. I mean, I can't give you chapter in verse, but probably I Don't know if we're doing 350 billion a year God knows how much comes from the Bogo heads But I'm not people that look at your site But it's it's a it's a great asset And how mean the element, you know people talk about the index fund as being a great example of democratization of investing and You put the you put the democratization right first so it's the democratization of commentary and all that and as well as the principle use of index funds one way or the other or low-cost funds is fine and so I think that's all I can well I did I did point out to Vanguard when they showed the slide that showed the growth Comparison of Vanguard to the fidelity. I think was second and they were going neck and neck Vanguard slightly ahead 2007 Vanguard shot up like a rocket fidelity stayed down here and I pointed out that in 2007 was when the Bogo heads forum was founded And they acknowledge the people the Vanguard people do acknowledge the fact that we drive a lot of business there And that's one of the reasons why they treat us the way they do Well, maybe that's why they run they ran that thing about my airline preferences on their website This next question is from Rick Tewani Could you please comment on the differences and benefits of investing in different kinds of index funds? For example cap weighted fundamental weighted and equal weighted There is nothing like cap weighted indexing It gives you the entire market return. It doesn't care about sectors. It doesn't care about managers it doesn't care about styles and the long run we know as a fact but it's very difficult for investors to capture the market return as a group they can't and So I go with cap weighted totally it also is kind of self-executing Because people write you know, if these hot stocks, whatever they call them shag stocks or something SAG brag, what's it called Mike? bang bang bang When they fall apart The index boom will be over But the reality is that other funds own those same fang stocks actively managed one in the almost the exact proportion as the index fund Those are just no grounds for that kind of complaint So and then and it's not like we're driving up the price of Amazon if we buy it We don't we're not a big factor in that market because you know, we weren't turning the portfolio over. It's just investing new money And so it seems to me quite clear That that kind of indexing is best you will find in equal weighted a kind of temptation Because it's because it's equal weighted You don't have to it requires a lot of work to adjust it and keep everything Equally weighted and every once in a while including the reason the reason they're up an equal weighted has done better than than then cap weighted but it doesn't represent anything but a new way of looking at the market and Sometimes it will do better and sometimes it will do worse and sometimes it will do a lot better and sometimes it will do a lot worse so it's it's just the the Nonpredictability of the of the returns on the equal weighted portfolio Relatives in total market. It's gonna get people thinking I should have done this. I should have done that I'm gonna get out of this get out of that When those things happen and so the temptation to change is always great as for the value I always thought that whole thing was kind of nutty if you forgive the expression and and we had my sort of friend Rob Arnot brought out this rapy 1000 fund and it was it was a based on industry fundamentals dividend yields earnings growth book values even number of employees things like that that are pretty durable and He's had a very erratic record very high high volatility relative to the 500 and Is probably a here behind the 500 as we speak today? It was very very close. He's been ahead a lot of the time but now he's been behind and now he's calling for a crash in fundamental indexing and I don't think that can happen either. I mean the guy's a little bit of a nut and the You know what he wrote an article about him in the Wall Street Journal Well, this is a little anecdote and the journal reporter called me a big article actually and I see she said well How do you sum up your feelings about Rob Arnot and I said? I just wish I was as sure of anything as he is of everything And damned if that wasn't the closing line in the article And I heard from one of the associates that he loved it What to be said so you know fashions come and go and We'll see a little bit more of this in the cash flows as the year goes on and Comes to a conclusion and probably next year, but all this talk about about Value being better than growth this year the growth index is up 22 and a half percent and the value index is up by 10 and a half percent So that kind of thing happens call it Reversion to the mean and that's a fundamental thing you saw the charts Yesterday and it's always in my opinion. It's always gonna happen there is no such thing as a permanent solution a permanent formula a permanent way to get rich and Just enjoy the market return and you made you may do better somewhere else I don't know reluctant to say that but but you you don't want to bet your financial future on odds You know, I got a one and ten percent chance one and ten chances of beating the S&P. Why would anybody take that? So I'm very comfortable as life is going on and as it almost everybody is adopted the S&P or the Cap weighted market cap weighted weighted by total market capitalization Methodology anyone's serious about the business, but there are a few kind of outcast outliers. I should say The do the tell the stock market right now. It looks pretty good. I mean do it do the do the equally weighted So, you know choose whatever you want, but I think if you're investing for a lifetime There is no better way to do it and I will editorialize at this point and I'm starting to write more about this I did it to the CFA to Just think about this from it You're a month you're a mutual fund buyer and you buy the best managers that are around looking at past performance Which is only useful useless but counterproductive and We know you start this at 25 and you're gonna be investing for the next 75 years So at 25 years old will have a life expectancy of a hundred years So what happens in the next seven years by years mutual fund you buy three funds or four funds good funds good performing funds and One the average portfolio manager last eight years Not 75 eight and the average fund well 50% of them go out of business every decade So that's 50% and 50% and 50% and 50% and then 25 or something at the end and So you're gonna probably own we didn't know way to calculate this But I think we use when I gave these examples that you'll have Let me say 35 different managers in your lifetime What is the possibility? That's 35 managers some of whom got fired for bad performance Some of whom were brought in new managers who clean out the portfolio at great turnover cost Some of which come and come so which go none of them are gonna live for 75 years more more than their present age and What are the chances that that large number of managers can conceivably outperform? Someone who is smart enough to pick no portfolio manager at the beginning with the guarantee that he will His fund will still be run by the same non portfolio manager at the end think about that so Lifetime investing is what we should all be thinking about and not being paid paid so much attention to what happens every day every minute every week And and and listen carefully to Jim Kramer to get the best advice we can Well a little aside on that the first the the first Bogleheads conference was at the Miami Herald making money seminar Jack was the keynote speaker and followed immediately by Jim Kramer Jack made his usual by the market on the market low cost Jim Kramer came up forget everything heck I told you get I'm gonna give you 10 stocks that won't miss everybody's writing down running out to make the cost of the broker and that was right before the tech wreck and His stocks basically, I think eight out of ten went out of business and the others lost 70% so Well, right after that if I recall he confessed that Jack was right by index funds But that was right before he got the gig banging things on the on the And found out he could make more money doing that That was an even more than this one happened to be in Florida too. I used to do kind of a speaking circuit thing and I can make a couple of bucks. I wouldn't no longer run well at Vanguard full-time and So Somebody and I guess it was in Florida Said turn and oh it was a money Game kind of thing and you had all these this ring of Investment advisors rather and one guy saying gold is the only way and somebody else is saying gold is the only bad way And then so and how do you like how do you have if you want growth without risk? Here is how to get it and on and on around they were all just big phony things So when I got up to speak I said to this nice audience of normal human beings probably an audience very much like this one and Taylor Laramore happened to be in the audience and I said, you know the first advice I'm gonna give you is don't pay any attention whatsoever to anyone who has an exhibit here Well, I remember the comment at the end I'm I'm looking over at the guy's sponsoring out of the corner of my eye. He didn't look at all happy and Taylor dropped me a lot and he said I'm gonna guess you're never gonna be invited to be back again But you know if that's the price you pay for telling the truth What's to be said and it's an opinion I can't really swear it's the truth But the best advice is don't listen to all the stuff that you see on the billboards Yeah, that was the money show in Orlando and I remember after that when The jack said I don't know why they invite me. They know what I'm gonna say Jack the the next question is Someone wants to ask Your thoughts on two active vanguard funds Wellesley and Wellington And their roles have held as part of a retiree's bar accumulators asset allocation It seems many indexers here do hold these active funds and would be interesting to get jack's perspective Well, as I said yesterday I've never done this kind of analysis, but I am sure it is correct For um for Wellesley, but for Wellington It is 98% indexed It's tracks the return of the same the source of its returns are determined 98% by the combination of 65% s and p 500 and 35 corporate bond index and I guess the bloomberg Barkley bloomberg corporate bond index So it's an index fund and I like that about it Uh, I like the fact that the big change I made in the fund when it was run It's a kind of a terrible story when the Boston guys took over They put a man named Walter Cabot Bostonians love each other That was an aside In charge of the Wellington fund he ran it for 10 years He let the equity ratio normally at about 65 top Kept 83 83% totally out of the funds mandate at the high in the market, of course And then watched it collapse with everybody else particularly because he put a lot of junk in it the stocks of tomorrow And in like in mr. Cabot's 10 year tenure It had the worst record of any balanced fund And what you have to understand about this business It is just as hard to be the worst fund in the list as it is to be the best fund in the list I mean, there's a lot of randomness here. So he went on and so he was basically an abject failure and So where'd he go from there? He was named the treasurer Of harvard university and the president of the harvard management company Only in boston Do you think the higher profit potentials of large u.s Companies in domestic markets will continue at the expense of foreign and new domestic competitors Well, I don't I don't really know how to answer that because These old economies really don't exist anymore. We know that half of the Revenues and half of the earnings of u.s corporations come from non u.s sources and So we you already have an international fund there and the question. I mean, let's call it 50 percent It's different. You know the same currency problems and all that um Our currency value variations if you own foreign stocks and by the way, I should say this I don't know how many people know it but I I want to have a chance to mention it and as last year Uh, there is no question. I'm glad meld didn't ask. There's no question that gets asked more of me Then why don't I favor international stocks? And I've explained it over and over and over again and now when somebody asks that I say I hate that question You might as well be honest, but last year Uh this this year that we're going through right now Uh foreign stocks Have done exactly the same non u.s stocks have done exactly the same As u.s stocks up about 14 percent Until you get The weakness in the u.s. Dollar Which has added 10 to those returns. So when you look at the International returns and non u.s returns you will see 24 percent But understand that those things are not fundamental in local currency terms the way the markets are actually performing Before you get into currency is um is identical So there are a lot of things that go into this and I always thought currency risk was it was a reason not to own international or non u.s funds, but I don't really object to it And but it's gotten to the point I think the article was on cnbc maybe Mike the thing about my feelings at international and Oh, you didn't see that. Yeah, I was wondering it's six pages six pages Of um explaining my international position and you know, it's very logical could be wrong I'm not saying that you can always be wrong And but it points out that I don't tell you don't don't need don't I'm just to be aware of these risks A lot of the returns and the u.s companies are already international companies That currency risk is a big thing The institutional kind of risk and these are how these things changes I'm not allowed to get into politics But the fact of the matter is we used to look at the united states as having the strongest institutions in the world governmental institution court institutions or other kinds of institutions that Change our lives here for the better every day And uh, you know the government the government institution Is shaky today. Everybody knows that Uh, I used to ask have we lost one of the risks is are will we lose the ability to govern ourselves? You know, I think you could argue that we're giving that a good shot Um, but that's politics. So I won't pursue it Well, jack, I guess I can throw the rest of the questions away since you don't want anything on international No, I'll be glad to repeat my usual patois. Well, this this is a little twist on it Uh, he says in boggle on mutual funds You explain why international investing has risks and state that perhaps investors should keep their money in u.s. Stocks It concerns me that virtually no other passive investing author is worried about the same risk that you identify Why do you think these risks are ignored and international investing is being touted as crucial for maximum diversity? What is behind this? Well, first I have never given a damn about what anybody else thinks. We knew And I pay attention and I listen to the arguments And that may be a little strong form of my feeling But uh, they're entitled their opinion and it may be right and as this article and I just decided Mentions and then this is true. I say this and whenever I write about it, uh that When I first said this you don't need the international any non u.s. Stocks. It was 1994 in my first book I was on the record. You don't need them if you're gonna have them because of these extra risks stop at 20 percent no matter What the market weight is and So in the next 20 years 725 years almost and the non u.s. Are up about Let me say 300 and the u.s. Is up 800 so this is a brilliant prognostication I'll hear a little applause there And yet I quickly acknowledge the fact that the u.s. Has done so well for so long in this relative sense Maybe may easily mean that we'll have some reversion to the mean I always talk about that and it could mean that one doesn't really know So you know just take all of me don't don't take my word for it Take to the end make your own decisions But I do think that you don't want to get carried away with with uh Unknown risks and then then I use this other example and they talk about disney and that is When you talk about non u.s Think about what non u.s means Don't just take it as for granted The largest non u.s. Market is the united kingdom The second is japan and the third is france now The uk with brexit and all Is not a particularly productive economy. I would bet that our gdp would grow faster than theirs in the next 25 years japan very structured society population shrinking or aging population Tsunamis every few years And doesn't seem to me to be a place that will do better than the u.s. And france My god, they don't go to work there. They're having a big fight again So If you're french, i'm sorry But they have they they have very strong labor protections in france and no question about this and the idea of the new macraw I guess administration is to reduce those protections and have a more competitive framework And the labor is revolting You know, they have a I think it's a 35 hour maximum week or something like that And thank god I work 35 hours and a half a week Not now but I used to Like this this next one is a little embarrassing It says a friend of mine is a successful salesman for northwestern mutual in oma hall And continues to push insurance financial products I have told him time and again that i'm not interested and i'm now a bogelhead three fund low expense index investor full disclosure His comeback was stating good news jack bogel is a northwestern mutual customer Is that true or is that yes, it's true I mean, let me tell you the truth of the matter is a young married man And I wanted some insurance in case And I'm Corked past went something whatever the but don't use the word died, please And so I bought a $10,000 policy from northwestern because it was clearly a mutual company Which was probably the best company in terms of relationship of rates to premiums and for $10,000 and I think maybe there was a companion policy I bought later on which is a tie onto that which maybe was another $8,000 So yes, and I still kept it So I had $18,000 with the northwestern mutual. I mean confession is good for the soul. I hope that doesn't Well, are you getting royalties for them using your name jack as a sales shoe? No, you know, it's gonna happen. You know, it's gonna happen Okay Besides contracting for a term like policy is there any reason reason to invest in an insurance product? Well when you get beyond term And all term is not the same by the way you want to pick that very very carefully But there's some perfectly good term policies. Sure. There's a place for an insurance product for people You know that they have modest means And they're very dependent on their their family is going to be very dependent on their earnings They don't have a lot of savings put aside and it's an expensive way to save But it's immediate, you know, you invest the difference and It's It just Is a perfectly intelligent thing to do just so long as you don't get ripped off And I'd say there's such a thing about and the hidden costs of insurance and particularly in variable annuities are just an outrage And so then it's not a good investment It's a terrible investment But there are things that are more important like your livelihood And when you get into things my experience Or maybe intuition When you get into something it gets complicated. It's really hard to Maintain so you're buying term and investing the difference and you know, it's complex and You don't you forget to invest a couple of times And your term policy lapses there's so many things that can go wrong That I think the strategy in the abstract is fine But in the implementation Now just make sure you do what you're intending to do and buy from a good company and there aren't very many of them I'd say northwestern is still a pretty good company This one said first of all, this was in almost every Questions says mr. Wobble, thank you for all you have done for the little guy And I just didn't want to repeat it over and over again, but it was in almost every response If I were to include social security as part of my fixed income What would be wrong with holding the balanced index fund for life? My plan is to put it in this one fund and never look back Nothing Okay That is nothing would be wrong if you missed the beginning of the question This one again repeats. Thank you for all you've done in order to help the individual investor Thank you for Pro thank you for providing that constant reinforcement through your books and interviews that allows me to feel My investment strategy Taken to into consideration you're often quoted age and bonds as a starting point in determining one's fixed income asset allocation as well As there is less need Our willingness to take risk as we age Well in the abstract that's probably true But it's a rule of thumb and it depends on so many things first It depends on including social security as a as a fixed income position, which it clearly is And as long as it holds up it's a fantastic And we just we all just got everybody in the room just got it everybody's on social security And I got a two percent raise and you know, that's not a bad bad year And so it's inflation hedged by and large and the government is not going to go out of business. It could be fixed Well, I'm reminded of a panel a joint interview. I was doing with paul voker Some years ago and I said that they were talking about social security And I said the fixes are so easy. You wouldn't even notice them And I said, uh, if you would If you would just make paul and I the two zars of the new social security system, we'd get it fixed in a day And paul looks up at me and says Couldn't we fix everything? Jack I know you I know you have to get out so we're going to let you out on time uh, I want to let you know that we ran out of Meaningful tokens of appreciation for your For the annual events. So we decided to create one I know recently in conjunction with the forbes award that you won you mentioned founders mentality And we thought we'd pick up on that and we'd create something to commemorate to commemorate this As you know, many Memoral events happened here in philadelphia and pictured on the left of this the founding fathers at independence hall in philadelphia And on the right is a picture of you And the title is visionary founders And you certainly fit that to a t jack and thank you for all you've done We all need strength to carry on I underscore the oil and uh These couple of days with you have given me enough strength to go on for As long as i'm able i'm not going to go on forever uh There would be a time When your mind starts to go happened to a lot of my friends they died We lost three good friends in the last two weeks About my age one of the older one younger So that's happens and it's part of life But i'm going to try and go on As long as I can responsibly do it And responsibly be fair to my family And I'm still trying to make my family life a little bigger Part of my regular life. I do take those a couple of months often In the mountains in the adirondacks in the summer But I found out that When you've been at vanguard for 30 years You you get eight weeks vacation So i've been there for 65 So I may just go up there and stay there But it's a thrill to be with all of you. God bless you and god willing. I'll see you all next year. Thank you