 Okay, let me just make an announcement about this progress report meetings Well, we were supposed to have that meeting last week and on Tuesdays my sort of Lunch break time is being occupied by this talk show, which I attend From 1 to 1 30 p.m. Commenting on Turkish foreign policy issues as the guest of honor of Miss Yunhan Gunil. She is a Fact of low student this year. She's graduating and when she came to me just two years ago when she was sophomore student She wanted to continue this program, which I had started myself upon the insistent request coming from students probably in 2002 or 2003 Since then I continued with some of my students and now some of them are doing quite serious things in TV channels Bishra and Gülşen from CNN Turk Aisyen from TRT and a couple of others So I mean whenever you have time if you're driving drive safely first But then if you want to tune on to Bilkan radio, you can listen to me if you want to do so. I mean From 1 to 1 30 That said I will have this progress support meetings with With teams tomorrow from noon to 1 30 that is Lunchtime Well on a first come first serve basis I don't think I should make appointments which may not fit your schedules So if you just stop by my office, of course all members of the team should be present This is the idea situation if for some reason some of you may May not show up that might be understandable provided that you have a very good excuse But other than that, please come up Come to my office from any time from noon to 1 30 p.m If you like I can give you specific time slots where it should come But as I said and as we have seen in the previous attempt this may this this time segments may not fit your individual schedule, so Whenever you can on Tuesday, sorry on Wednesday and Thursday Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow you're welcome to come to my office Actually, you are kindly required to come to my office But the time of your coming it's up to you and of course because there's no specific Schedule for this meeting I mean any time slots any time segments You may have to wait of course quietly Because my door is always open and when I speak with a group and if you speak outside the office We cannot hear each other right so please keep quiet and wait And if you see a lot of people you may just take your time to take a walk and make another round And if it's free just jump in all right, so make your friends know about this progress report meetings on Wednesday and Thursday This time in my office and the choice of time is up to you just you determine and of course if you like you can just As I said wait in the queue. I don't think it's gonna be a long one or you can just come any time which fits your individual schedules About the exam next week, I know this is a question always in your mind always you want to learn as to what kind of Exam it's gonna be my former students know me very well That I'm not asking any sort of multiple choice or fill in the blanks type, you know primary school type of examinations I'm gonna give you a A4 size paper There will be just one single sheet of paper. It's gonna be I think I may give you two groups of questions one on this side you may have to choose among Possibly two or maybe three questions. Just pick one. I Had some students who answered all the questions Well sweating and Trying to catch up with time. Anyway And then you write the answer for that particle question on that side of paper And you just write from left to right not of course of downwards And do not write in a microscopic manner. I cannot read thanks to you. I now have glasses to read so and therefore You will be required to answer that particle questions anyone that you pick Here and then turn the page and don't ask me which one you should start with Right, whichever you start and these are questions. I keep getting don't laugh, but this this is serious So therefore there will be possibly Several questions out of which you will pick for one particle group Just one of them. You cannot choose two of them and skip the other two You have to choose just one from here and one from here and then that's it This is this is going to be your a answer paper answer shit. All right, so therefore use clearly Write legibly so that I can read what you're right there and I unless I read it I cannot grade you of course, so This is because you will have one almost full size sort of a side of paper Then well, it's not going to be a very short essay. It's not going to be essay. It's going to be something in between so and if you know the subject well This much is even more than enough No one will be able to complain. Well, you know, I knew that much and so much But there was not enough space to answer fully. No and just Trust me if you show me by way of you know Explaining the situation by way of writing if you show me that you study it that you know the subject Even if you reflect 70 80% of what you have on mind Just you can get full credit. Don't worry about don't worry about grades provided that you Study enough right and the more you respect this course not only myself The more this course will respect you back. So meaning reading the Papers chapters that are left to reserve on a time of basis. All right Okay, so I hope there will be no other questions about exams or this Progress support meetings which I get during the break So the threat perception threat perception thing is important the national threat perceptions When we talk about the Middle East, of course, Egypt is one major country that we talk Almost extensively about the economic situation political situation meter situation and The geographical historical situation Yes, but there are still things to say for instance the mindset of the Egyptian elite has always been preoccupied with what happened in history Because of the geographical location that it occupies Egypt almost throughout history under occupation So that was something that has also created some sort of a psyche again in the minds of these people that They had they they started to interpret all sorts of developments Primarily filtering through this psyche. I mean is this going to pay the way to another yet another occupation? Because they have been occupied by almost all the great powers of their periods in history So starting from the Romans and even before up until the Ottomans so and then of course the Brits, I mean From whom they won their independence later on so this is something that has an impact again The way they they interpret history has a lot to do with how they perceive threat or and how they devise their foreign policy We talk about a economic situation how they interpreted the developments and what was important for them, of course with respect to the political situation domestic situation being the birthplace of Muslim brotherhood today even at present day Egypt Egyptian security elite the decision-making elite the Administrative elite they are very much preoccupied with the threat posed by Muslim Brotherhood and the Religious fundamentalism this is not something that they cannot just pay any attention They do pay attention to what is happening of course meet your issues are maybe primary of Are of primary significance for any part of the country? It is of course Also of very great significance for Egypt, but as I said some economic issues some political issues Geographical issues as we talked about now here may have if not more but equally important issues for Egypt as they are for The threats that they perceive from the meet three threats, but after all Egypt is such a country which has Significant meet your capabilities yet They are very much concerned like your friend said at the beginning with the meet your capabilities of primarily Israel because Israel Even though it's not It has never acknowledged nor ever denied the presence of Nick to weapons. It is known as or very seriously believe as Having Nick to weapons capability and Egypt is very much concerned with that capability Although or even though there is peace between Egypt and Israel Still when we talk to Egyptian people or when you just sit around the Table together with the Egyptians Israelis and other countries in the Middle East you see that the first and foremost They the the most significant meet three threat perceived from the region is not necessarily the meet three capabilities of Iran or Iraq or Syria or Jordan or Saudi Arabia, but primarily the meet three capabilities of Israel which pose the greatest challenge in the meter domain to to Egypt I Mean This may sound weird This may sound a little bit strange because it is the first and now one of two states which have signed a peace treaty with Israel which have Officially formally recognized the state of Israel and one might think or one would think that Israel would not make the I'm sorry Egypt would not make the Israeli meter capabilities so begin an issue But it is it is primarily the the most important Meetry threat perceived from the region by the Egyptian scholars and and Secured analysts diplomats major people because Israel has not only a new to weapons as most people believe and Also believed to have chemical and biological weapons. I mean we don't have any Accurate or specific information about their Presence, but this is what most countries in the region including the Egyptians believe to be as such I mean Egyptian Threat perception is very much centered around the weapons of mass destruction capabilities of Israel, so Of course, we'll talk about the peace process separately. It's not something it is In some respects at the very core of everything with respect to the Middle East because whomever you have a chance to talk about the The security situation in the Middle East the political situation in the Middle East or anything about the Middle East the future of The Middle East or the past of the Middle East it all comes down to the Arab-Israeli conflict and the Palestinian problem Where it is true or not for some countries such as Iran Which you might think may not have much to do with the Palestine issue because after all when you go to the historical records Iran is not much of a party to the dispute, but Especially since the Islamic revolution we see Iran is becoming one of the players because of its connection with Lebanon, Hezbollah and also Palestinians in Jordan and also the the Shia in the Gulf area, so and Palestinians have also Because they were in a dire need of anything any support that they could mobilize and therefore they Not fully maybe but in some respect became appreciative of the support that they received from Iran, but Here the the peace process is at the very core of everything without achieving any results many people believe Whatever Solution may be found to any particular problem here I mean the armament disarmament or proliferation non-proliferation It may not be a lasting solution unless the Palestine problem is full result. Yes, we can understand it I mean the Palestine problem. It's I mean it is this this region It's all Palestine in the past during the Ottoman period and that they there are a number of headings a number of Issues major issues and there there are subheadings and this These issues are so intertwined so mix With one another so therefore very difficult to solve I mean the This is the status of East Jerusalem for instance, which is proclaimed to be the capital of Israel since the early 1980s Not recognized by every state including Turkey, but at least Some have moved their embassies Some countries they moved their embassies from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. I mean this is one issue because East Jerusalem is also claimed to be the capital of Palestinian states state whenever it is Fully created which is not acceptable to Israelis. There is the status of the Palestinian People who live in so-called temporary camps for so many years for decades literally and also live in Jordan Lebanon and elsewhere and also in some other countries in the Gulf and The the right to return to Israel, which is again something not most possibly Acceptable for Israel not only for economic reasons because there will be so many people coming not necessarily with any skills for with who can Employ the ranks of certain Jobs, but also the demographic the the Jewishness of the Israeli state will be of course challenge something not acceptable. There is also the situation about the security, I mean whether there is going to be a meet three Capability of the Palestinian state. So these are all at the very core of all problems, but since there is no sort of Light at the end of the tunnel for the time being. I mean since there is no such a Good prospects for any or full fledged resolution of conflict in the region This doesn't mean that all other problems will be will have to be postponed to a later day to discuss and therefore Armament or the weapons proliferation the region is always been discussed. I mean how to take some other steps in the other areas, which may help building confidence between Arabs and the Israelis, which may pave the way to a fuller to a better solution between sort of the greater region Between the parties including all other countries in the region, which may ultimately lead to an eternal peace well difficult, but the situation with respect to weapons proliferation is one of them and what most countries expect from other countries in the region is that these the existing weapons or non-proliferation agreements or disarmament treaties must be Signed and also ratified by all the members or all the countries in the region, which is not necessary the case There are several treaties. There are several conventions which some of the parties have signed up Only And they have not gone And and they have not ratified Some have not even signed or ratified or some have signed ratified, but not necessarily comply with the requirements of that particular convention and have been found as cheating as was the case with Iraq. Remember Iraq was A state party to the non-proliferation of Nectar weapons, three don the non-proliferation of Nectar weapons the MPT Prevents any country other than the five Legally acknowledged Nectar weapon states that I mentioned briefly last time All other countries must Not have any even the intention to deviate There or the divert their major peaceful capabilities or civilian capabilities from peaceful applications in the Nectar air field to meet your applications and Iraq was found as having done some clandestine some some hidden secret participation Engagement with nuclear weapons procurement or Nectar weapons development in the past. So these are Issues that have to be dealt with By all the countries in the region. I mean Egypt Israel Jordan Lebanon Syria all of them are concerned with weapons Proliferation all of them are concerned with chemical and biological weapons proliferation all of them are concerned with Nectar weapons proliferation and These are weapons of mass destruction and we have discussed as to why they were called conventional unconventional way because if and when they are used the The effects of unconventional weapons may go beyond the intentions of the user I mean Dmitry commanders or the political decision-makers, but there are also other weapons the convention arms, I mean Artilleries tanks rockets missiles or Neville assets. I mean Neville vessels, etc. And these are equally source of concern for some countries, especially Israel for instance when Egypt wants to talk about the nuclear weapons in the region or chemical biological weapons in the region and There is this you know proposal put forward before the international community community by Egypt both in the past and More recently as I will talk about just in a moment, but Israel keeps saying alright Let's talk about chemical biological Nectar weapons, but also let's talk about the Catechusia rockets or improvised Explosive devices IEDs. I mean Because the suicide bombers may just just like the case that a couple of days ago in Istanbul I mean someone can explode himself blow himself up and by killing others Hopefully this time that was not the case, but many people were injured, but in the past we have seen on a number of occasions In a number of suicide bombers have blown themselves up to get with Israeli citizens so these are of Greater concern to the Israeli decision-makers because these are direct threats to their citizens and and rockets that are Launch from some Southern Lebanon or some other parts here may be in southern Syria or maybe in some posts In Jordanian territory, which may not be under fully control of the state officials, so these have always been of Greater concern for the Israelis, so therefore there is a this kind of mixed set of Issues all of which when combined together make a big universal set of issues that they sound like almost Hopeless in terms of finding a solution because as I said on the one hand there is this And also Conventional, I mean you can fill in any weapon system here, so when it comes to the MPT There is only one country in the region which has not signed or ratified a treaty, which is Israel so the Israeli threat perception Required them to not become a party to the MPT they have signed But not ratified the chemical weapons conversion and as far as I remember they have not even signed biological weapons conversion When it comes to Egypt, for instance, Egypt has been one of the proponents of the nuclear weapons Non-proliferation treaty and has not only signed but also in 1974 together with Iran Proposed the creation of a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East in 1974 Israel propose, I mean sorry Iran and Egypt have joined the broad before the United Nations General Assembly a Proposal to create a zone free of nuclear weapons in the Middle East Which was actually Adopted after several times at the beginning was welcomed by the international community and then after some time It was adopted even without a vote because everybody agreed upon the necessity of creating a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East meaning in anywhere Nobody in the Middle Eastern territory would there be any nuclear weapons even Israel did not object to it Well, they probably did not object to this proposal After having expressed some concerns at the beginning and then they dropped even their concern because they have not Officially acknowledged their weapons capability. So there is nothing to be concerned at least on paper formally I mean and and The second and maybe more important reason was because they have seen almost seen the impossibility of reaching such a deal or creating such a zone because when it comes to the acceptance Everybody says all right Creating a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East will be a great idea. I I'm gonna sign it sign up for this. I'm going to accept it, but Provided there is such and such other steps are taken by such and such states For instance, I mean yes, Egypt and Iran and when I'm saying this is in 1974 and the Shah is In power in Iran. It's not the Islamic Republic of Iran today But still the Islamic Republic of Iran has not changed the Shah policy To endorse the idea of creating a nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East because once you create a nuclear weapon free zone that will Prevent any state within the zone, which of course becomes a party which becomes a sort of a member of that zone There will be no such weapons on their territory on the territory of any country. Of course the target was First and foremost Israeli nuclear weapons capability that is Although we don't have any exact record of when Israel may have acquired if at all, which we believe actually that they had their nuclear weapons capability There are powerful estimates that this may have taken place some time around the 67 war Maybe before maybe a little later. We don't know and we understand this from some writings as we mentioned before on their cohen who has written extensively on the subject and He's still writing papers articles and also giving conferences which you can watch on some Internet sites anyway, so but one reason was possibly Targeting Israeli nuclear weapons capability that is Proposing such a zone in order to get rid of Israeli nuclear weapons if of course Israel would ever accept it We would ever agree to it But on that hand the timing of Iran's and Egypt's sort of Proposal is significant in that In 1974 which is the post Yom Kippur period Yom Kippur war period which you should remember cause or had a number of consequences one of which was the OPEC crisis Saudi Arabian embargo on the United States and the Netherlands and paved the way to the Steep increase in the price of oil three times or four times over over a short period of time and Iran the Shah of Iran who had Prior ambitions already, but because of some economic political Financial difficulties was not in such a position to realize its ambitions then embark upon on a rapid Development project in the nuclear field and Once you embark upon in such an ambitious Project nuclear nuclear program then of course you sort of ring certain belts Somewhere and you raise concerns in the rest of the world as to whether you have ambitions to build nuclear weapons and In order to mitigate the fears of the rest of the world the world community Iran Shah as an expression of his goodwill that he had no intention whatsoever to build any nuclear bomb Which as I will discuss in the coming weeks when I will focus on the Iranian nuclear program to me at least was not so much convincing yet in order to Provide assurances to the rest of the world Iran Co-suponsor with Egypt in 1974 a proposal to create a nuclear weapon free zone So on the one hand you you sort of start up a large ambitious project for nuclear for establishing or building nuclear power plants also bringing nuclear science to the country and with this ostensibly or at the declaratory level a peaceful project Over time in due course eventually you may divert from peaceful to mean to purposes. So that issue came right after Iran sort of had this influx of large sums of Revenues coming from oil experts because of the increased oil prices then Shah the Shah of Iran set on to realize his long Ambitions long-time ambitions to develop nuclear energy Possibly for of course Peaceful uses but also maybe For other types of applications such as meter applications. Anyway, why Egypt was sort of cost sponsoring country. That's also an important question because Egypt has always sort of cared about maintaining a certain parity with the other powers in the region as We discussed before there has always been this rivalry among Egypt Syria in Iraq as to who would lead the Arab world who would be true representative true spokesperson of the Arab world as to who I mean during the Nasser period There was no such question because Nasser was unarguably and Dispidately the leader of the Arab world at this for the people and in the Arab streets may not be at the administrative level people may might have envied Nasser's position, but yet that was a situation. That's still Egypt Being an important country Seeing itself first and foremost part of the Middle East rather than Africa because of course Africa features in on Egypt's foreign policy radar screen quite often, but yet Until recently when Egypt felt more powerful than compared to the upstream Rapparians of the Nile River. I mean the territories where Egypt so Nile was sort of born and flown all true Egypt did not care too much about what was going on in African politics. Yes, of course They paid attention. Yes, of course. They care But they focused they they sort of devoted much of their energy to Middle Eastern politics to the Arab Israeli peace process to Israeli military capabilities Iran situation, I mean because Egyptian scholars, military experts, diplomats Who feel like they can speak freely about the Egyptian foreign policy issues in sort of roundtable discussions or Improving conversations, of course not secret conversations, but you know when you have a chance to ask You can understand it if after I mean Egypt is not happy with the situation that Israel has nicked the weapons But this is something that they believe they cannot change over time. I mean overnight and this is going to Be a search for the foreseeable future What concerns Egyptian security elite more than the Israeli nuclear weapons capability is Another country becoming nuclear weapons capable state so Of course Egypt would like to see Israel with no nuclear weapons. There is no question about it, but This being a situation which is likely to stay with us for for for civil future They say we would not like to see and we cannot tolerate any other country developing nuclear weapons at all so therefore Egypt maybe having seen Iran having the potential to develop nuclear weapons in the future because of its sort of a large-scale investment in nuclear technology Egypt might have wanted to control Iran by co-sponsoring a nuclear weapon free middle and it weapon free zone in the Middle East so you see sometimes Agreements bilateral agreements or multilateral agreements are Signed and implemented for the benefit of all the parties all of them to advance their positions and sometimes that this kind of Agreements treaties conventions whatever are signed in order to control others Rather than improving your position you pay more attention to not let others improve their position So therefore and in Egyptian Iranian co-sponsor nuclear weapon free zone Middle East Proposal was of course At least on paper at the declaratory level aiming at freeing the entire Middle Eastern region from weapons of mass destruction and primarily from nuclear weapons, but The the hidden agenda. I believe this is my interpretation may or may not be true with which I believe Is true is to control Iran Because yes, Israeli capabilities are there and Egyptians are realistic enough that Israelis will not give up their nuclear weapons Any time in the foreseeable future and that there is this strong backing of the United States so from the Egyptian perspective, so at least there is the peace treaty there is a certain level of understanding but Any other country developing that weapon nuclear weapons in particular would be a bigger challenge For at least something that can also challenge the status of Egypt in the region. So this issue this 1974 nuclear weapon free zone in the Middle East was Taken another step forward in 1990 If I'm not mistaken it was in September 1990, but I might be wrong or August or September 1990 Which is as far as I remember was a reaction to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait Partly and also with the came with the or in the anticipation of what was coming in the region and Egyptian Diplomats politicians took this issue even one step further and they have created sort of proposed Which is known as Mubarak plan Which aims at creating a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East It's a long acronym here Zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East actually Egyptians make this distinction that they have not made a specific Proposal under the title of zone free of weapons of mass destruction in Middle East, but they actually Mubarak plan actually Proposed as free freeing or clearing the region from all weapons of mass destruction They say when you ask what is the difference between a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East and Freeing the Middle East from weapons of mass destruction. They say well the term zone May make it complicated because it requires some institutional Arrangements some verification mechanism. So the Mubarak plan the president of Egypt I mean known after his name the Mubarak plan aims at Freeing the Middle East from all weapons of mass destruction. It is not necessarily a zone and Egyptians underline that Emphasize and underscore that they have never Officially mentioned the term zone here, which as I said would require A creation of some institutional frameworks and some verification mechanisms some documents Well, of course freeing the Middle East from all weapons of mass destruction including nuclear chemical biological How realistic it would be to do so without having a zonal Arrangement, I mean institutional arrangements. That's another question and actually and honestly I really don't understand as to why the Egyptians want to underline or underscore this tiny difference between a zone free of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East and Clearing the Middle East from weapons of mass destruction or freeing the Middle East from weapons of mass destruction I don't know under what sort of Considerations they they make this distinction, but they all all of them come down to the same issue Is there any point which is which you are lagging behind just feel free to ask this is important because I Mean Egypt is Not a state party to the chemical weapons convention and Again Not a party to the biological weapons convention. It is not a state party to the Comprehensive test pan nuclear test pan treaty Comprehensive nuclear test pan treaty. I mean this is a treaty which has not yet entered into force because it is entry into force of the CTBT is pending upon the ratification of 44 states one of them being Turkey and these 44 states are Such states in on whose territory there is small big or small one or many nuclear facilities and Egypt is one of these countries which does not want to sign the CTBT not even sign or ratified CTBT does not sign a chemical weapons convention does not sign the biological weapons convention and When you ask this question as to why you don't do that and the explanation is clear we want a sort of region-wide arrangement and if there is a country which has Supposedly have Nuclear weapons and others you know are known as having chemical and biological weapons because we have seen during the Iran-Iraq war the use of extensive use of chemical weapons and Iran may not have used as much as Iraq did and there are many Iranian victims and also Veterans of war who still suffer the consequence of extensive usage of the chemical weapons by Iraqis Syria again never acknowledges or never officially admits the presence of chemical weapons, but There is a strong suspicion about the Syrian chemical and biological maybe weapons capabilities and Therefore Israel again with nuclear weapons and possibly with chemical biological weapons. We don't know exactly So all of these issues when when combined together presents a situation that I mean the this even Making the smallest step toward any sort of peaceful resolution of the existent conflicts is Very difficult because everyone has almost Incompatible A priori or just a sine qua non conditions that may not be met even partially by other states to start with Because I mean how can you talk about? Chemical biological weapons issues with countries when Israeli nuclear capabilities there and when even even For instance, there was this debate discussion. I mean just hypothetical situation if Israel which has nuclear deterrent and which Presumably doesn't need chemical and biological weapons Having this upper hand in the nectar field if Israel did decide to sign chemical and biological weapons and Signed a chemical weapons commission and rectified a chemical weapons commission If Israel did this would Egypt follow suit together with Syria no because Israeli nuclear weapons capability Again in self is a major source of concern therefore Issues are not necessarily commensurate. I mean, I mean if you go and sign and ratified this in the treaty I will go and sign and ratified the same treaty. No, it doesn't work that way in the Middle East so therefore and for instance on that hand if For instance Egypt and Syria Somehow provides more assurances about the security situation Israel would Israel be fully Comfortable with the situation no because somebody has to provide assurances with respect to the situation in Lebanon and the Palestinian and the Hamas for instance I mean who will control the meet three capabilities of Hamas? This is another major question in the minds of the Israelis So all of these issues are mixed all of these are issues are somehow intertwined and these are This is a set of very complex and of course not totally insolvable Anything can be solved Provided that there is commitment on the party on the side of the decision makers But of course long-term commitment is also necessary because in the future in the Middle East it is very difficult to see Whether the the regime with which you make a commitment will survive long enough to honor its commitments in the future too So this is another problem, but yet This is a huge set of problems which of course I try to give a big picture of the frame and Starting from next week. We will look at Particular situations like the situation in Syria Iraq Iran Jordan, etc. And we will come more closer to our contemporary sort of developments okay on I'll see you on Friday at 9 30