 Testing okay folks welcome to market wrap for December the 1st. All right the two charts I want to begin with tonight are one the VIX to The S&P 500 why the reason is is that if you're a bull on this market The VIX and the S&P 500 did something that you generally do not want to see there was a correlation normally There's an inverse correlation now. We know that from times past that when you get Up VIX up S&P 500 things do not end well for stocks now in recent days We've seen it down VIX and down S&P 500 and I said in all probability You're gonna get a rally on the S&P 500. We got that rally but today Yet again like we saw back in February Which gave us an indicator that this market was not well and only a few short weeks ago We saw the same thing not once but twice then we got a sell-off here. We are yet again where Optimism is through the roof a tremendous amount of bullishness out there the Robin new Robinhood traders I should say won't sell They're leveraged and man. Are they going to pay a price when this all goes? Let's check out bonds Bonds TLT dropped nearly one and a half percent time. This is a big big move now Granted what we're looking at here is a daily chart. We are retesting the breakout point. We did not drop back down into a prior consolidation as highlighted in the upper band and the lower band in blue We closed that 157.50 Possibly on a stokes possible W formation, but RSI lower highs back down below 50 and lower lows What am I alluding to here? I'm not ready yet. Let's take a look at the US dollar We are at lows that we haven't seen since October of 2018 We broke below and closed below the lows of March of 2020 today. Think about it the lows of The COVID Bottom have been taken out the TLT the bond market is moving lower. What are yields doing? So what is my concern here? I think that we're having a crisis of confidence. That's just beginning in The US markets, it's manifesting itself in the currency market The bond market not so much yet in the bond market. We haven't broken support levels yet and where it's also manifesting itself is In the crypto market folks as well as gold. Did you see gold today? Big big move think about it our debt shooting through the roof. We have a presidency still undecided It's probably going to the Supreme Court so let's be very very aware of what's going on in the bond and currency markets This is the globe Sending us a signal. They're losing confidence. We can have all the bullish confidence in the world here in the United States That doesn't necessarily mean the rest of the globe is of the same like mine Let's go to the equity markets. We spoke briefly about the S&P 500 An update up 1% you may be saying what are you complaining about here? It's a good day New all-time high Bob We faded we faded on the day. We didn't hold gains Volume was mad was okay. It was about average indicators RSI still rising stokes look, okay I'm just not getting the warm of fuzzies here the Dow transports big fade on the day and Keep in mind RSI has broken down already It's broken trend Volume to the upside today light Stokes lower high lower lows the Dow Jones another fade Keep an eye on these stokes. I put these arrows up here Several days ago warning of a potential head and shoulders setup. Here. We are it's getting worse In fact last night I spoke about simply the fast line Breaking down below the prior low or the neckline now. We have Both lines slow and fast line Now the one optimistic thing I will say about the Dow Jones is that RSI Did hook up today the trend is still strong there, but stokes and RSI are diverging volume was good cues I'll perform the rest of the market today but the One caveat is that volume is horrible horrible today's volume at New all-time highs came in lower than yesterday's volume the small caps setting up here nicely Possible setup for a breakout Volume was good today the banks a little bit of a fade on the day Surprising with the yields moving up higher Technology moved up higher slight fade up over one and a quarter percent Volume rose. We kind of predicted this was gonna happen energy An update, but we are losing momentum here. We're still above the 50 mark. So No big deal yet volume about average. I would stay away from it. I like 36 dollars per share on the XLE gold Smashback up above 1800 We kind of warned about this one now does this gap up higher mean you go all in on gold. No not quite yet But it certainly helps that the dollar is Very very weak at multi-year lows now and gold is well off of its high to positions GDXJ We're up over five and a third percent on this trade today volume good uranium Attempted to the breakout was rejected today Stokes to look good. We're remain long here. I wouldn't want to add here at resistance Facebook broke out today up over three and a third percent RSI looking good Stokes book back up above 50 Looking good volume good Will remain long rocket mortgage Can't get a break new daily high. We had a bullish reversal bar yesterday We should have been surging today with the rest of the market wasn't to be We'll remain long not adding more US Steel of which we are short big topping action here. It doesn't mean it's dead yet We did go adding more to the short side volume was good today But keep in mind that when you drill down, let's go with a five-minute chart right at the close You saw a big Sell order come in so we close well off the highs of the day So much of that topping action and volume was obvious sellers They were selling strength and keep in mind that US Steel hit multi-year resistance So we'll remain short for now gold money XAUMF broke out today along with gold I think this is one that we can entertain adding more to it's held up really well in The face of weak gold prices of later very pressed Cal main foods daily chart and update we close off the highs of the day a bit. I Think we're gonna break out here. Look at RSI rising above 50 Volume light though Stokes now hooking back up. We're not gonna add more here. Let's wait for the resolution to these stokes and the resolution will look like a Close above the 50 mark both fast and slow line emerging markets nice day today We're up five and a half percent We'll remain long especially with the dollar breaking down Brazil up over nine and a half percent today on the BRZ you and Now back above 100 for the first time say and July I think we're going up higher and that is it for tonight folks. I will catch you tomorrow morning Be well