 Welcome traders to the Tick Mill Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 20th of December with me Patrick Lundley. Data calendar is pretty light this week as we head into the holiday season but the focus will be on the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE deflator. Headline and core PCE inflation rose 5% and 4.1% respectively on the back of broad base price increases in October. Meanwhile, in November, CPI inflation rose to near 40-year highs with the headline and core rates jumping to 6.8% and 4.9%. This has led the Fed to stop describing the causes of inflation as transitory. The consensus is for prices to rise by circa 0.5% in November, lifting the PCE deflator to 5.6% and the core PCE inflation to 4.5%. Once we're in the US, the latest consumption and income data is also due this week. Another month of solid spending growth is anticipated with consumer spending forecast to rise by 0.6% in November, while personal income is projected to grow more slowly, increasing by 0.4%. We'll also get an update on the housing market in the form of existing and new home sales with both segments of the market expected to rise once again in November. The final reading of the third quarter GDP is set to confirm that the economy expanded by 2.1% on annualised basis. In terms of survey data, the conference board measure of consumer confidence is forecast to rise slightly higher in December, having declined sharply since the middle of the year. From a technical perspective, Dollar Index was holding above the PIVOT at 95.50%. We look for an extension through the prior cycle highs here at just above 97%, en route to get a test of offers and stops towards the 98.00 handle. At this stage, it would really take a loss of the PIVOT at 95.50% to open up a deeper corrective move back down into the 94.70s before once again trying to base and move higher. In the Eurozone, the macro schedule is really quite bare as markets prepare as mentioned to wind down for Christmas. The only release of notes in the Eurozone is the flash consumer confidence reading for December. This is envisaged that sentiment will have declined for a third month in a row owing to concerns regarding the Omricon variant. From a technical perspective, the Eurodollar continues in this bearish consolidation pattern. I'm looking for a break through the 112.00 handle to extend through the cycle lows 111.90. Looking for that test of the 10.30 area, which is the major weekly trend line support. At this stage, to negate the downside, we need to see a close above the 114.00 handle to suggest a more protracted corrective phase to get us up into the projected descending trend line resistance at 115.70. But for now, focus remains to the downside. In Japan, really, it's Thursday. It's going to be the day of medical data with CPI print. Japan's national CPI for November is expected to rise to 0.4% month over month from October 0.1%. Last month's uptick was led by an acceleration in fuel costs while price pressures from raw material shortages gradually passed through to retailers. Analysts have suggested the consumer inflation is expected to pick up in the coming months due to higher fuel costs. B.O.J. Governor Karoda at Friday's post-meeting press conference acknowledged that inflation expectations have risen slightly and there may be upside risks to prices. But the strength will likely not persist in his view. From a technical perspective, B.O.J. looking to maintain resistance at 114.50, as it does so, we look for an extension back through the 112.50s to get a test of the ascending trend line support and the prior resistance to also act as support down to 111.60. In the UK, the final reading of 3rd quarter GDP is expected to confirm the economy grew by 1.3% in the quarter. However, really the main focus in the UK this week will probably be watching for any potential new restrictions being released by the government with respect to the spread of the Omricon variant. From a technical perspective, Sterling continues to find resistance at the 133.70s. We now look for an extension through the prior cycle lows at 131.50s to take us down to test the major equality objective at 132.00. At this stage, it would take a close back through the monthly pivot there at 134.00 to suggest that we could see an extended correction to take us back up into the 135.50s. But again, for now, focus remains to the downside. And last but not least, down under in Australia, the focus is really going to be on the minutes from the RBA. We will be looking for commentary surrounding inflation and the timings of potential tapering. Earlier in the week, RBA Governor Lowe said he expects conditions for a rate hike will not be met next year and that they are still a fair way away from a hike with the board prepared to be patient. Lowe stated that the board discussed tapering bomb purchases in February and ending in May, while they could end buying in February if economic progress is better than expected. But he added that they could also review bond buying again in May if the data disappoints and the QE outlook depends on inflation data, the labour market and the strength of consumer confidence. So from a technical perspective, the Aussie dollar continues to find resistance at the 72.20 area. As it does so, I'm looking for a break of support at the 70.50 to take us back down through the prior low 69.90 on route to test projected descending trendline support down to 68.90s. At this stage, it will take a close back through 72.90 to suggest the downside is done and then we'll be looking for an extension up into ascending trendline resistance towards the 75.20s. But like I say, for now, focus remains on the downside. And that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 20th of December. As always, traders plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly, manage your risk. Until next time, thanks very much.