 Okay, traders, welcome to this week's live market analysis session with me, Patrick Munnley. If you can hear me and you can see the Ticknell welcome screen, if you just type a Y in the chat box. Good stuff. Okay, let's get going here. Before we do start, as always, we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer. By now, I'm sure, we're all aware of the inherent risk involved in trading any financial instruments and the possibility of losing more money than you actually have on deposits. And secondly, and most importantly, for today's discussion, the views expressed by me today are solely mine. And they are not indicative or representative of Ticknell. Let me just turn off this seconds, just give some audio feeds. So yeah, not indicative of Ticknell. So before we jump into the charts, a brief introduction for those who are here for the first time. My name is Patrick Munnley, like I say, after I graduated from King's College, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. After a couple of years of learning the ropes, I left with a couple of colleagues and went on to co-found and successfully exit the consulting startup post a merger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets. So with some capital to play with and some time in my hands, I started day trading or more appropriately day gambling, the S&P 500. And after some early beginners luck, I wrapped up some solid gains. However, as is often the case, my beginners luck ran out and as the market phase changed, operating without a plan really or any idea of what I was doing. I began to average down into positions, very quickly gave back all my gains and ultimately I experienced a six figure financial hit on my personal capital. To say this is a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I had to stand back and figure out if it was really feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor with an excellent track record in trading, working with that mentor over an 18 month to two year period. It was a period in which I up not just my technical game in terms of researching and developing a strategy to suit my personality, which I sent to me back and forward tested and developed a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during this period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game. And probably the most important change I made or water shed shift so to speak was from being a highly oriented, highly goal oriented and focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean well it means I have to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and really start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Often in time, often during periods of negative feedback from the markets in the in the form of losing trades. But once you become process oriented and you have a professional trading mindset, and you understand the true nature of trading being really a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You then can let go of the emotional attachment and investments and that hellish roller coaster of living and dying by the outcome of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or a small string of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades, because I know that if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered annual positive returns since 2008. Since 2013, I've also been managing investor capital through my management account service, delivering annual positive returns. Sorry about that. And you can see the results of the management account service on the screen. And I'm now responsible for managing a multi million dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of really all experienced levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. I've started to numerous brokers and trading education brands, contributing written content webinars and live presentation on a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management and private mentoring. I'm also the resident market expert for TITMA providing market and trade analysis I provide a daily market outlook and a chart of the day which is a setup that I'm watching for the session ahead. My other passion project is as head of trading and trader education for a leading trading education brand called FXcareerswap.com offering development and more importantly funding to retail trading talent. At FXcareerswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge work on mindset development through a structure program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis for those that are interested. If you want me to drop a link in the chat at the end of today's presentation I'll do so. And you can you can follow up on that separately. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from so let's jump into into the charts. First of all, as we start new month October it's always useful to check in, or certainly it's something I do is check in with the seasonal patterns that may may play out in the markets during the month ahead. What you have on the screen here is a heat map that shows the best and worst months for each market. So what we can see here for October is the Australian dollar could could do some. We could see some positivity in terms of the Australian dollar, it being the third best month of the year for the Australian dollar. Back it's the worst month of the year during October and November, and the dollar index traditionally this is going back over a 20 year period. So we could see the October November period, the period period during which prices are supported now the slight, or the King with respect to this at the moment is that obviously we're heading into this election cycle, and, and that brings with it. One of the specific seasonal patterns, one of which I've highlighted previously is this idea that we will see weakness in terms of the equity markets, heading into into these elections, but historically once we get the election out out of the way. Then we could see, we could see risk assets pick up. So that said, let's, let's take a look at some of the charts that I'm watching at the moment and some of the patterns. Firstly, I want to highlight this fractal pattern that I've shared previously. This is the dollar index, the, the broad dollar index versus six currency pairs. What we can see here is the similarities in terms of the price action during the 2017 period into a into the December low, the January low for the dollar, and we're seeing a similar pattern play out this year. Now, as always, like I've said, with these fractal patterns we don't necessarily, we're not necessarily going to get the, the exact replica of price action, but we can use these as a guide for, for what we may see develop. And certainly at the moment this is tracking pretty well in terms of, in terms of the pattern, you can see here that we were looking for a low, a September low in the dollar index and then a move off those lows. So we've got a low just at the beginning of September, and we've since seen the dollar expand to the upside we're now seeing a pullback and I highlighted to the traders on my trading team this morning that we're actually seeing the same pullback, or potentially the same pullback that we saw during late 2017. So what does this mean? Well, when we look on the, the actual execution charts in a minute, you'll be able to see what I think we might, what we might be able to do in terms of trading opportunity using this, this fractal pattern, but certainly what we'd be looking for now is for the dollar index to carve out a secondary low here, and then extend to the upside into the elections really. And I think then post the election, we could see the next leg of meaningful downside in terms of the dollar index. So how does this feed into the majors? Well, similar story with the euro really. We're looking at this same pattern playouts here in the corrective phase for the euro in 2017, and you can see we're mirroring it pretty closely. And what we anticipate now is that we retest and hold these prior range lows in and around this 11750 to 11780 area. And again, in a minute, when we look on the execution charts, you'll see where I think where I potentially see the opportunity for a for a trading setup. So that's the euro similar deal with sterling. Different in terms of scale, that we're slightly different scale in terms of the pattern, but you can still see the similarities in price structure. And sterling would anticipate a, as is often the case with sterling sterling a messy corrective loads we made here, we're obviously getting headlines left, right and center at the moment with respect to the UK trade negotiations. Yes, coming into today, we had the EU striking a rather resilient turn in terms of the fact that they didn't see, didn't see talks progressing. And then lo and behold, an hour later, we get an FT reporter coming out saying that the UK government think everything's on track and, you know, we're going to get a deal and so that's whipsawing the price action around here. And I think that, you know, we can see this continue. Certainly we'll have tomorrow morning, the chief negotiator negotiators both Barney and Frost Barney also representing Europe and Frost UK. They'll do their press conference update tomorrow. So we can see some more wippy price action in terms of cable but ultimately what I think we could see here is a tradeable low in terms of cable, and then a move to the upside. Again, we'll look on the daily timeframe shortly. Dolly Yen continues to trade in a relatively tight range here, supported as I've highlighted in previous sessions below this, below this 105 level for now. And as it does, I think we've got scope to make a move up potentially to see 108 the Aussie. In terms of the Aussie I think we're coming into a potentially a corrective phase now obviously we have that seasonal pattern that I just highlighted that suggested some strength for the Aussie. I think we've got in terms of trading opportunities I think we've got a bit of work to do, potentially on the downside this would obviously coincide with the idea that dollar index is going to have a bit of a lift here. So I'm watching the Australian dollar and I'll show you that the actual trading pattern I'm looking for in a minute. Similar story in the loony here. I'm looking for, you can see that the similarities in terms of the downside here in 2017 made that low into September low here into September, and we've had this initial move off the lows and it's all out but ultimately we tracked higher. Again this would coincide with that idea of dollar indexing a bit more strength. So watching see if we can make another low here in around this 13260 area to get another leg of upside in terms of the loony. Suisse similar story I think we potentially going to carve out a rather tricky bottom here in terms of the Suisse you can see the similarities in terms of the scope and scale of price action that we saw during the 2017 period, replicating itself over here. And finally, we have the Kiwi. The story in the Kiwi really, I think we, we could have a nice trading pattern developing in the Kiwi and again, I'll go through that now and we look at specific opportunities. So those are the fractal patterns that I'm using just to as guidance really and see how they play out but certainly they've tracked very well, and I'm giving great trading opportunities using these as a, as a market map so to speak. So let's check in with the daily timeframe charts and look at some potential trading opportunities. So with respect to the Euro, I'm looking for the Euro to basically test, obviously first day of the month so we have new monthly pivot in place now monthly pivot comes in at 1780. We have the descending trend line resistance. 1790. We have all these prior lows here to potentially now act as resistance in around this area. So I'm watching for price action in this in this zone to potentially do something on the short side, looking ultimately really for a test or a retest of this high which will put us back down into the lower parallel channel here. So somewhere just below 115 would be the ideal objective for this corrective pattern to complete and then certainly I'll be looking on the upside so watching really how we respond at this 1770 to 1790 area as an opportunity to do something on the short side in the Euro dollar index. We have obviously had the inverse pattern playing out there. This is the broad dollar index like I say we're testing into the symmetry swing support zone here versus this last decline. We also obviously have ascending trend line support coming in just ahead of that we have the new monthly pivot 1943 40 so watch for potential reversal in this area to ultimately set up another leg of upside in the dollar index and what I'd ideally be looking for is is a move. So we take it down in here and then we get a third leg higher off this interim low here to take us up into this zone and that would broadly coincide with this the fractal pattern completing as it did in 2017 so this move and then from there we can see the decline resume in terms of the dollar index so let's see if we can hold this term line support watch for bullish reversal patterns in and around this 93 30 area to to ultimately give us an opportunity to do something on the upside. Obviously if we take out the monthly pivot and this more importantly this 93 20 area then all bets are off with respect to upside and we could could be resuming the downside so paying close attention to test some some pivotal areas here as we start the month. The loony was looking at this this morning we've held to the tick at the moment this symmetry swing support in the loony. We've got a nice reversal pattern from the from symmetry swing resistance I posted this as a chart of the day yesterday, if we can take out this the current days lows then I probably look at doing something on the short side here on the basis I can get in with a relatively relatively tight stop just above today's highs and the weekly pivot see if we can get down take out the monthly pivot and then we could see a roll over here in terms of the loony trading down to test this descending trend line projected support down to 128 at the moment though like I say we're holding that symmetry swing support pretty much to the pit and if we do then I think we can look for a five way pattern to develop here as the first leg of a corrective move higher. And so again if we go back to the fractal pattern here and we take and we check in with the loony. So you can see here we got that shallow pullback initial move off the low shallow pullback and then higher so that's what I'm watching with respect to the loony. You're we've just talked about a couple of other your trades that are quite interesting got the euro Aussie here and trading you know in a pretty well defined range obviously with with respect to the euro Aussie so we have. This is our range resistance which is held now numerous times and then obviously we have relatively well defined range support. She also has held numerous times so we're just trading within a nice nice range environment here offering about 500 pips. So we're at the midpoint of the range now if we can break down we're training below the new monthly pivot training below the weekly pivot, we've got the monthly VWAP which is now bearish. If we can take out the current lows that should flip the weekly VWAP bearish you've also got the daily VWAP bearish and we've got the RSI stochastic nice and negatively diverge there so that should open up I think a move to if we can take out the overnight lows here. We can get a move back down to test to test range support down to 6150. And again, you can use relatively tight risk reward in terms of these setups because when you get these, what I refer to as Asian range breaks, you can, you can use the days high plus 10 or 15 pips as a protective really great risk reward in terms of in terms of these setups. Euro Kiwi is another one that I'm watching, got an order in place on this and Euro Aussie. So, again, with respect to the Euro Kiwi we're holding slightly more narrow range but we've pinned it a couple of times now. And so what I look for is, is a move here in terms of the Euro Aussie to get us back down into range support. Now if you can take out range support and we can, we can get things going on the downside. And this has got scope then to move down to the broader range support down here towards the current weekly S3. So we could see this down at 172. But the first port of call is going to be, is going to be this 175 area. So, again, thinking in terms of risk and reward always with respect to to setups or chart patterns. But not every the markets always moving and you know there's endless opportunity, but to get successful and you know to really build a career in trading, what you have to be able to do is kind of identify asymmetric opportunities with respect to to risk reward. So what we're looking at here is like I say we're trading in the middle of the range if we get a break lower here we're going to take out to actually take out the monthly pivot. We're trading below the weekly pivot. So pressure building to the downside we've got the daily VWAP bearish nice big reversal candle yesterday from the range resistance. So if we get through this these overnight lows, then again what I'm thinking is from a protective stop perspective, getting a stop in 10 or 15 pips above the day's high, and seeing if this thing can break down and get down to to test that initial 175 if the buyers aren't home here, then we then we can look lower to 172 sterling obviously whipsaw of a day you can you can see the candles. Certainly, in some of these higher beta trades, we have we've certainly seen a whip around here. No, certainly here. So Cal, I mean, if you if you'd sold this pattern here, the equality objective at 172 44 one point this morning you're up 250 pips let's say, and now you're almost back to back to scratch on that. It's, it's tricky trading, especially where you've got these. Again, it's, it's, you're basically trading a new cycle, and that can be incredibly incredibly tricky and incredibly frustrating and incredibly costly. So nothing to do for me at the moment is selling, but certainly what I pay attention to is that is that we're coming back up now into test this monthly pivot for the first time from below 130 20. This is prior lows over here, so I'll be paying attention to how we respond here if we get through here. Then the upside starts to open up sterling and we could be taking a look at that 136, which is the long term trend line resistance that I've talked about in previous sessions. So paying attention to a close through 130 50 let's say, opening up 136 Aussie. So in terms of the Aussie, looking really for this trend line, this that we that we've been or this trend channel we've been trading in for most of the summer, looking to see if we can get a test now of the new trend line from below. You can see we've got this potential new trend line here. This will be the third test and as most of the guys who work with me know third test of the one I'd like to pay attention to. So we can ping up into the 73 area, certainly one paying attention to how price responds there because it could be an opportunity to get in on the short side in the Aussie here. There isn't one on the radar for next week probably similar story really in the Kiwi. This one I prefer actually we've got a potential head and shoulders scenario developing here. Since there we have. This is going to be our left shoulder. We've got our heads, double top here. Nice. We've got to look for our right shoulder to develop in and around here. So again, paying attention to price action as we trade into this 6715 area, watching potential reversal patterns to do something on on the short side through here, then the next stop in terms of the Kiwi. This will be up into third touch here at this trend line resistance ascending trend line resistance by that stage and this is something I really like to pay attention to is divergence. So we could, you know, we could easily we could work higher here through the 6720 get up and test 6850. But once we get up there want to pay attention to price action and certainly if the psychic in the case of momentum study back in testing into this descending trend line resistance. We have a really nice divergence trade on our hands. And I'm all meaningful top in place in terms of the Kiwi Cadien Cadien to make a retest of the monthly pivot and again, former trend line support potentially now actors resistance attention to Cadien, how we trade when we test up into this 7960 area. And let's just check in some of these risk markets. So, but the S&P, whilst we hold 3430 as resistance I'm still looking for 3137 on the downside. And this, you know, this corrective move could be over here. We've technically completed an ABC pattern for the earlier waivers amongst us. And from here, we, you know, we could easily make new highs. What I've been watching would be this trend line now. So if we get up through there into that 120, sorry, the 3720 area. And if I can just move this around or show you why this has additional significance because what we've got there is the 127 pivot extension. So this is a great topping pattern. And that's the significance of terms of the S&P. So if we can, if we do take out this swing high, and we get up through the prior highs, this is going to be a real area of interest, certainly as we head into these elections. At the moment, in terms of risk sentiments, we're really just being driven by stimulus, you know, will they won't they announce me stimulus bill. And sorry, more likely not they will announce this in this bill, and that will give the markets a sugar high. And, you know, is it going to be enough to take 300 points higher. No, but certainly, this is an area of interest for me and I've been long watching for and seeing if we do get into that area, because what again in terms of divergence, it appears unlikely to me that we will make a new high in terms of momentum. That's a nice divergence on our hands by the time we get up there. Now, it could be that we double top, which is another scenario in a game, double top with divergence high probability trading set up so paying attention to these two key levels in terms of the S&P. And so the Nasdaq already on it's already trying to make its move here that the Nasdaq into its trend into the top of its trend channel would actually be a 200% extension. Sorry, 100% extension of the decline to the upside again. These levels have a tendency to see reactions in terms of price so 1280, 128 C950 would be the area to watch in terms of the Nasdaq. Hasn't quite tested the support zone that I'm looking for. You can see now we've got a some resistance here developing I think around this 1940s. So if we can get into this 1940 area, get another leg of downsides to basically complete this corrective pattern then I become more constructive on gold. And certainly, as we head into the election and the the unknown election outcome and the potential for that the election to be contested. We might be moving past the idea of an election night or even an election week and we could be thinking in terms of an election month in the US that would create a huge amount of uncertainty. And as such, gold will probably catch a bid there so looking for ideally a move down to test this 1820 to 1810 area, and then like I say become more constructive on gold. Obviously this 1840 needs to hold as resistance. Crude oil. Whilst we have this swing high in place at 4130. I'm looking for a corrective pattern equality objective at 3393 for we see more upside and crude. And last but not least, copper here copper coming back up to the underside of its channel, and we're seeing a bit of weakness here. So that and certainly that will have implications for the commodity currencies. So whilst we hold the current swing high, and we can see copper get down to test support back in to these is 283 handle is is the area of interest. This gives you a brief overview of the opportunities I'm watching where I see opportunities developing and and how I'm looking to play the markets for the week ahead. So this stage I can open the floor to any questions if you've got a microphone, I can unmute your mic and you can ask me live, or you can just type in the chat box if there's a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I haven't covered. So that's, or like I say, raise your hand by the Q&A and I can unmute your mic. Charlie, basic question, could you quickly go over pits and tips. This varies Charlie depending upon the instrument you're talking about if it's, if you're talking about the futures like the S&P 500 or the E-mini S&P 500, a tick is 0.25 of a one full point or one full dollar. So if you're thinking about pips, a pip is the lowest percentage move possible. So, you know, here let's say 13289 point 13289 so we're going to trade 13290 we've moved one pip. You can see here this internal number that they've got, which is basically counting between 89 and 90, you could refer to that as a tick. So we generally in terms of, in terms of our migrating anyway, I'm always just thinking in terms of pips I'm not looking at a tick so sweet. Does that make sense Charlie? Good stuff. Any other questions? If you don't have a question, if you could type an N in the chat box that would be useful so that I know that we're all on the same page. Cameron, I'm long term EUROSD but yeah, I'm bullish the Euro Cameron myself. I'm just waiting for the entry level. Like I said that I'm looking at, I'm looking for a test this 115 before getting in on the long side. Now obviously if we take out this trend line resistance here, then I'd be looking at the potential for us to retest highs and break higher to test 121-122 but in terms of longer term I see as trading 130 plus Cameron is my view. I think we're just, you know, I don't know if you saw these prior slides but I mean to my mind we're moving into a secular bear market in terms of the dollar index. This chart gives you a rough idea of what it is I'm thinking in terms of the dollar so obviously the inverse then being true for the Euro. Does that make sense Cameron? Okay, if there aren't any other questions I'm going to wrap this one up here. I hope you all have a good weekend and a good week in terms of trading next week and we'll reconvene at the same time next week. Thanks very much for your time.