 This is Covering the Spread, part of the Fanduul podcast network. All 30 MLB teams are in action for today, and that meant we had to bring back on Pitching Ninja Rob Friedman talking about some strikeout props for Friday. It is a delightful day to sit back and watch some baseball. We'll pick his brain on his favorite strikeout props for tonight, talk about which guys could leave the day in strikeouts to get you ready for a full Friday of MLB action. This is Covering the Spread right here on the Fanduul podcast network and Numberfire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for Numberfire, joined here as mentioned by Rob Friedman. Check him out on Twitter at Pitching Ninja. You can find him on PeacockMLB.com, MLB on Fox, and of course every Friday now here on Covering the Spread as well. Rob, happy Friday to you. How are you doing today? I'm going to be tired by the end of the day. It sounds like there's a lot of baseball. I love to ask you about that because there's only one day game. You get to watch the professor, Kyle Hendricks, work his crafts. That's always fun, but nothing until two and then from five or so until seven, there's no baseball. So are you watching US Open coverage? Are you like putting your fingers in an ice bath to get ready to make the gifts? How are you handling things during the day here? Probably a little bit of all of that there like I'm ready. Like I don't know if my PC is ready, but I'm ready. Do we convince you to get some US Open bets down here? You know, we'll just maybe we'll like work that in long term. Absolutely. I love it. OK. Different types of pitch. Yeah. Absolutely. It's very similar. You know, exactly. So what we'll do today is we'll talk to Rob about his favorite strikeout props for Friday and then later on I'll talk about my favorite money lines for tonight in baseball as well. But first, a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to Covering the Spread wherever you get your podcast. We talked about some NFL Super Bowl futures on yesterday's show. You can find that over on the Covering the Spread podcast feed and over on the Fandall YouTube page. If you like what you hear, leave us a thumbs up on YouTube or a five star rating on Apple podcast or over on Spotify. Now, Rob, let's shift our focus now to Friday night. As mentioned, we've got a full 15 games if you count the Cubs and Orioles game in this afternoon at Wrigley. So when you're looking at the strikeout props for today, which ones stand out most to you right now? Well, I mean, I've been like I couldn't get off of Kopeck for one. Like I've been, you know, he's been tearing it up and I think he's kind of figured out his stuff right now. I think he's in a sweet spot. I like him. I like him when they hopefully the daily K leader prop up at some point. Yeah, Kopeck, seven and a half strikeouts, the prop over at Fandall Sports, but you can go to the alternate market, too. But I want to ask you before we talk about the numbers on Kopeck. What happened? Because last year, letting up a lot of hard contact and suddenly the past six starts, he's like ditched his curveball. And I'm not sure if that's the reason, but like over the past six starts, the hard contact rate is way down. The strikeouts are way up. What has led to him suddenly unlocking the potential we've known Kopeck has had his entire career? To me, it's fastball confidence. Like I've noticed, I mean, his, his heater plays really well up in the zone and he's throwing it there more. So that combined with his, you know, throwing that slider is a pretty good mix for him. And he's just like, I just noticed the confidence. Like, yeah, sometimes it's just a matter of that. Yeah. And I can understand why the confidence might not have been there initially. Cause again, you're getting barreled up and stuff like that. That can be tough, but when you watch him and see how electric he can be, it makes sense that once that confidence is there, he can kind of erupt. And he has done exactly that. I think a 35% strikeout rate in that six starts sample. Now facing the Mariners, they're a high strikeout team as well. That's pretty enticing. Looking at the markets here for Kopeck to get seven plus strikeouts minus 172. Eight plus strikeouts is plus one 14. Do you have a preference between those two, Rob? Yeah, I am taking in for eight plus strikeouts today. Like he is my, he is pretty much my sure thing today, which means it's not going to happen, right? Right. Exactly. Now I hope it does. I need it for DFS. So we're, we're both on board. Michael Kopeck here, still pretty low salary over on Fandall there as well. So Michael Kopeck, the first one, Rob is locking in over seven at strikeouts plus one 14 right now at Fandall sportsbook. Now beyond that, it sounds like the board is pretty tougher today. And I was going through my own strikeout props earlier on. I was, I couldn't find many. I think I was able to get in three for today. It was a pretty slim, pretty slim offering. As far as finding pitchers, I like to, I thought were undervalued by the market. So is it kind of the same issue for you here? That, that is exactly it. I'm seeing some, some guys I want to take, but they have fairly tough matchups. I think Kopecks is the, you know, jumps out at me as one of the easier ones for a guy that's been hot. But like, you know, I'm looking at Gosman as a high strikeout guy. It's, I don't know about the matchup and he can be up and down. Like, as far as the K leader for the day, he very well could do it. Also, also have a five K day. So, yeah, you can have a three K day, you know, just kind of how it goes. So Gosman, another guy I did look into to, I couldn't quite get there. The, the strikeout prop on Gosman, the number seven and a half plus one 18. I'd rather just take Kopeck if I'm going to go at that high of a number personally, who else have you been considering, like thinking about and trying to talk yourself into, but then also potentially talking yourself out of. Yes. And these are the tough ones. I do like, I like Ty Walker. He's on a little bit of a streak right now, pitching really well, going up against the A's. And I think that that's five K seems like a pretty good bet. Go deep in a game and, and rack up a few. So like, that's, that's one of them. Looking forward for my parlay. Yeah. You know, not for the K leader, I wouldn't think. Right. And then I'm looking at Sandy, tough matchup for K's, but he also always goes deep in games and his stuff is there. He's starting, made me, I'd love to see him, you know, go get back to form. He's not far off. Like his secondary, his advanced sets look good. So I don't know. What do you think? When you're looking, when you're looking at Alcantra, because I think that he, his is the most enticing to me. Four and a half is minus one, 24, if Angel supports. Like you mentioned, low strikeout team in the nationals, but it's a matchup where he should be pretty effective if he's not getting strikeouts. So a seven inning, five strikeout game, I can see that very easily. But what about, I want to ask you about your process with guys like Alcantra where you know he's nasty and you see that nastiness in effect here too, because his swinging strike rate this year is higher than it was last year. So he's still getting whiffs. He's just not converting them into strikeouts. The ERA is still high. How much are you balancing what you see when what you see is pretty good versus the data with Alcantra and some of the data like the surface level stuff is still underwhelming, but there are like signs of hope there. How do you balance that together when trying to project what they'll do? It is tough. Like I look at basically where I think they are. The eye test, look, you know, balancing the stats in there and then figuring out logically, is it going to go deep into games? And that he still does like he's been going deep into games. I expect him to return to form at some point. And, you know, maybe today is the day. It's not, you know, I think I'm sensing signs of it. I think he's been struggling a little bit with change up location. Yeah. And, yeah, like I like him today. Yeah, Abbott's number is again, four and a half minus one twenty four. I haven't projected for 5.12 strikeouts that actually is above that number. So I think Alcantra is very interesting. And a large part of that, Rob, is because of pitch count. But like, again, that matters a lot in these markets. I think you just said Abbott and you have Abbott on the brain first. But that is another one that I was thinking of. So that's a great lead in. I meant to ask you about Abbott next. I was like, OK, I'm going to ask him about Abbott. I can't forget that. So I mentioned that. But Alcantra, I have a 5.12 strikeouts. I'm not sure. Let me check. Where do I have Abbott? I have Abbott at 4.70 strikeouts, which once you account for the matchup, the Astros have like a 15 percent strikeout rate against lefties this year. So it's very low. But I think that also speaks to the fact that Abbott is a guy who, I think, as the sample expands, can get strikeouts. It's been a two-star sample, though, for him, Rob, so far here in the major. So I want to ask you when you've watched Abbott in those first two games, what have you seen and what puts him on your radar despite a tough matchup for today? So to me, number one, the thing that jumped out on me the most I've been watching him since he's been in college. He is a high strikeout guy. Like that is what that is his game. He's tough to hit, gets there's swing and miss in there. He did it in the minor leagues. He did it in college, signs of it in the show. But there's also like, you know, he struggled last game, putting guys away at two strikes a number of times and just didn't do it. I think he figures that out. Are the Astros the team to do it against? Like, you know, they could tee off on a guy, too. But I also like that I like a guy going in there with plus stuff, confusing a veteran lineup. And maybe the third start is the time to do it. So I'm struggling with that, though, because you can also see him. You know, it's the Astros and they can hit. So I do think that his last start out was a pretty good comfort. So because he was facing the Cardinals, the Cardinals, that's like veteran after veteran after veteran. They are a team who crush lefties in general. So it is a pretty good company. You mentioned he didn't get that third strike, but he still had four strikeouts. So one short of the over on this number. So even if even in a tough matchup, veteran hitters, I believe that one is also on the road and he still almost got there. So I get the pitch for why you're here. And again, my numbers are pretty close to having him at he's got him at 4.7 right now. Yeah, like that's what I'm struggling with. I'm I'm on the bubble with him. I expect his confidence to be up there. You know, two solid outings, not giving up a run. Yeah. And, you know, I don't think he'll be like having watched him again since college. He doesn't get overwhelmed in big moments. I can see him rising to the occasion and maybe sneaking by with six or seven even. So it could be the time to break out. And that's that's what I'm thinking. Like I it's a tough one. Right. All right. So the firm one is Michael Kopak, eight plus strikeouts plus one 14. The consideration set after that, Taiwan Walker taking on the athletics. You've got Sandy Alcantara taking on the nationals and then also considering Andrew Abbott against the Houston Astros. Now, the the strikeouts market actually it just went up. Hey, look, we're two for two, man. We've been recording and this this market has gone up while we are recording. So looking at the leaders to lead the day in strikeouts. Joe Ryan against the Tigers. I get that plus 370 Rocko Bell, Delhi tends to be pretty conservative with pitch counts, but Ryan can go pretty deep. Gossman talked about that taking on the Rangers. You Darvish plus 650 very tough match against the Rays. But then your guy, Michael Kopak is plus 750. Is that long enough to entice you? Cause that sounds pretty fun to me. That is absolutely who I'm going with. And today, by the way, is a 50% profit boost token that from Vandal for pitching ninja stuff. So I am probably going to use that profit boost token on Michael Kopak for the daily strikeout, especially now that I see it's plus 750. I was expecting to get worse odds on that. I mean, you get a profit boost on a guy you think is a value to begin with. That seems pretty tough to turn down. That is where I'm going. I already made up my mind just in these two minutes that this came up. Well, I love it. Okay. So Michael Kopak plus 750 to lead the slate and strikeouts. That is where Rob is turning for tonight. Rob, it was fun to talk through your process with you. Fun to talk about these strikeout props and the very tough slates. I will be hoping for. I'll turn on notifications for the Michael Kopak props, the gifts for tonight. Good luck to you. Have fun watching all the baseball. We'll talk to you again next week. Thanks for having me. Take care. All right. Again, check out Rob on Twitter at pitching ninja. Find his work on PeacockNLB.com and we'll be on Fox. We'll have him back here again once again next Friday to talk about some more baseball as well. I'll dive into some money lines I like for today in just one second. But first, baseball season is in full swing and there's no better place to get in on the MLB action than FanDuel America's number one sports book because right now new customers can get a no-sweat first bed up to $2,500. It's at the $2,500 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win. So don't miss your chance to snag a no-sweat first bed up to $2,500 when you join FanDuel today. FanDuel, official partner of Major League Baseball. Major League Baseball trademarks used with permission must be 21 plus and present in select states. First online real money wager, only $10 deposit required. Re-fund issued is non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 14 days. Restricts his applies, see full terms at FanDuel.com slash sportsbook. FanDuel is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC. Gambling problem called 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com slash RG in Arizona. 1-800-NEXT-STEP or Text-to-Ex-Step to 533-42 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Wyoming and Kansas 1-800-522-4700 or in KansasKSGamblingHealth.com. Louisiana is 1-800-777-770 stop in Massachusetts. Gambling helpline MA.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24-7 support in Maryland, MD, gamblinghealth.org in New York, 1-877-888-HOPENWIRE or Text-to-OpenWIRE and in West Virginia. Go to 1-800-GAMBLER.net. Let's talk to them. There'll be money lines for tonight over at FanDuel Sportsbook. I've got a pair that I like. And the first one is a scary one because it involves betting against the Tampa Bay Rays. We're talking about you, Darvish. Now, tough that matchup is. Well, I'm going to bet on the Padres to win this game that is now shifted to minus 108 at FanDuel Sportsbook. So some movement in the Padres favor. Let me check to make sure I've still got that as a value because it was minus 102 earlier on and at minus 108. The Padres still a good enough value for me to be on them for tonight. Got them at 56 percent to win. So still a bit of cushion with that Padres money line. The Rays major bugaboo as a team, like it's not offense. It's not starting pitching. It's not defense. It's the bullpen. The bullpen is pretty rough. I think that's part of why my model has been telling me to bet against them pretty often recently. I was on them for two of the three games against the A's, which wound up going pretty well there and didn't expect that to happen. But it worked out well. The Padres bullpen not necessarily lights out, but it's you, Darvish, and you, Darvish, the results have not been there recently, but the peripheral has been getting better. He's been throwing more sinkers. His past seven starts and in that time, a 3.76 skill interactive ERA, respectable 25.3 percent strikeout rate. So the Rays are not fun to bet against, and especially not if it's going to be minus one away as opposed to minus one or two. But I'm still showing value for a reason because I have faith in this Padres offense to eventually live up to the talent that they've got. I have faith in you, Darvish, to get those results to better a lot of the peripherals and still a bit skeptical of this Rays bullpen. So you combine that all together. I think the Padres still undervalued here. Even at minus one away, the market has moved a bit, but still, to me at least, value in the Padres. I've got their win odds at 56 percent. So again, if we're trying to figure out the point where if you open this later and it's still moving, if it gets to like minus one 15, I probably would not back the Padres at that point. There'd still be wiggle room compared to my model, but I just want to be sure to, you know, give myself margin for error to be wrong and still be above market. So as long as it's like minus one 15 or better, I'm OK with it. It's minus 108 right now. So I do still like the Padres as of right now over at Fandall Sportsbook. The second one is a team I referenced while talking about the Rays. That is the Oakland Athletics. Their money line right now at Fandall Sportsbook is plus 130. And there are a couple of reasons why I like the A's here. The first one is that Fandall is deviating from the market. The rest of the market on this A's money line. Fandall has it at plus 130. Now, I got a plus 130 last night elsewhere and at that book, it has since moved to plus 110. So it seems as if there has been some interest in backing the A's broadly in the market, but Fandall has said, we're good. We'll hold things here and be OK. Making the Phillies at minus 154 with the A's at plus 130. So you got some plus 120, some plus 110s out there on the A's. Fandall's still a plus 130. Just from a price shopping perspective, I think this one does make sense. But also, I do think this matchup is pretty OK for the A's facing Taiwan Walker. And what Rob was saying about Walker is correct, because he was talking about the splitter. Last time out, Walker had a really good start. So there have been signs from Taiwan Walker that maybe the peripherals for him are a bit misleading. Looking at the seven starts for Walker, where he's been throwing more cutters, the results in that time is ERA 3.38. So the results have been good. But there have been some still trouble spots in the peripherals with Walker. A little bit too much hard contact still. Not getting as many whips as he would like. So to me, that's why I still think there's value in this A's team. They're starting JP Sears. I think Sears is fine. I think this bullpen still sucks for the A's. So I don't really want to bet on that. It's a bet where you can't really feel great about it, even if you're up late in the game, because the A's bullpen is a legitimate disaster and could blow things, even if you have a pretty respectable lead. So I think that the money line here for the A's, plus 130, their first five money line is plus 114. That allows you to get away from the bullpen. I don't have a model for first five bets, so I don't tend to do them personally. But I think I'll go with the plus 130 on the overall money line for the A's. So the two money line bets I like for today are the A's at plus 130, the Padres minus 108, and would be OK taking the Padres down to minus 115. And that's the point where I would back off and be no longer intrigued. That is all that we have here for today on Covering the Spread. Want to give one final big thank you to Rob and Friedman? Check him out on Twitter at pitching into. Thank you, Rob, as always, for swinging by for today. I want to thank you all for tuning in as well. We have a long weekend here with Juneteenth coming up on Monday, so no show, solo shot, or Covering the Spread on Monday. Back with you once again on Tuesday for some more baseball action and some awesome golf. Brandon Gedula as well, all right here in the same place. To get all these shows as they are posted, make sure you're subscribed to Covering the Spread wherever you get your podcasts and check us out over on the FanDuel YouTube page. If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. Want to wish you all a happy weekend, be safe, be happy, have some fun. We'll talk to you once again on Tuesday, talk some golf and some baseball. This has been Covering the Spread right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network.