 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody has a great start to their weekend. Hope everybody survived probably yesterday. I know it sounds weird to say with a 2% rally in the Aztec 100, but we'll get to that in a second. If you are brand new to the channel, guys, please like, share, subscribe. Join the movement, right? Join the movement. I promise what I'm about to say doesn't happen a lot, but it's a very, very unique way of looking at the market on a day-to-day basis based on the previous day, and we'll get to that in a second. So let's start up, right? Let's start up. I don't think it's possible that I could have been more wrong going into Friday's session. I don't think it was any more possible. And it wasn't, you know, if you've been watching this broadcast for just even the last few years. I've been doing this now. I'm hosting the AccessToTrader platform going on year 14 right now. But if you've been watching just in the last couple of years, you kind of know I'm pretty on the ball. I kind of know what to expect the next day. I could read sentiment pretty well. And once that sentiment gets correlated by technicals, usually price action is going to fall. So if you watched Thursday's video, yeah, Thursday's video, I couldn't have been more bearish going into Friday's session. I don't think it's possible. And here's the data points. It wasn't just because I was guessing this is my first year trading. There was a lot of really good data points. So let's kind of back up, right? Let's kind of back up going into going throughout the week. So Monday and Tuesday went nothing really stood out. You had earnings come out this week. And if you look at the earnings scoreboard, so far pretty mixed the notable names. I want to go through everything, but the notable names Microsoft Microsoft, they didn't they didn't love their quarter. Let's be honest, right? They didn't love their quarter. Tesla, they didn't love their quarter and Netflix, right? They didn't love their quarter. You know, the ones that did pretty well, carry the same carry the same kind of theme, right? This whole AI theme, they mentioned in a lot, they talk about it a lot. It's like the new quote unquote dot com references during during 1999. And, you know, Google did incredibly well. Meta did really, really well. And we were we were highlighting the massive call buying coming in those names. And the surprise of the week was Roku, right? Roku on Friday, which was an absolute huge, huge, huge move. But the scoreboard so far going into the FOMC really didn't, you know, move the needle. The market was still fine, more than fine. The action was still more than fine. The bulls were obviously in control. And then we got to the FOMC, right? And the FOMC was probably the biggest dud I could remember, probably in the last few years of price reaction. Okay, the market did not do anything on the FOMC date. Instead, they saved all the fireworks to Thursday and Friday. And Thursday session came, the market was very, very strong. We were long, you know, had some great, great pivots in the morning. We went to cash. Usually I'm done about 95% going into the afternoon session. And if you guys remember, on Thursday session, we had this absolute violent, absolute violent reversal. Q's went from literally, we talked about this Thursday night, we talked about the Q's went from 385 all the way down to 375 within an hour. And in the process, right, in the process, it confirmed took back the five and the 10 day moving average closing at the bottom of the range. So as you can imagine, anybody who's been trading for a long time, when you see not only a huge reversal engulfing one, two, three, four, five days of action, but it gave back two major rising supports, the five and the 10 day, which are short term and intermediate sentiments of what the market is going to do. So everything, you know, everything that night was, I had 100% short bias going into Friday session. And you couldn't have been more, you couldn't have been more bearish possibly, at least for the next day that I was. The only good thing about it is, I don't guess, right? I don't guess. I had a Tesla short, I had a Tesla short overnight from Thursday to Friday. And now it sounds great. I know it sounds horrible, Tesla's up, you know, huge, but we were up, you know, up about five points on Tesla into the close. And basically I lost about a dollar, a little less than a dollar on my runner, so it wasn't that bad. So the trade actually worked out, you know, worked out pretty well, just very disappointing. And Thursday night, you know, Thursday night, I was sitting there and I go, how can anybody possibly in their right mind be long overnight after this close? Right? I even said it, I go, man, oh man, you got to be on really strong pills to be long overnight after that close, closing on the bottom channel and taking back two major moving averages. And this is where the market reminds you, and I don't care how long you're trading. This is the market reminds you is you're not shit, right? You're not shit. And the market reminds you that and humbles you that, humbles your thinking every single, you know, random parts of your career. And Friday was definitely the you're not shit type of, you're not shit type of scenario, at least for me. You have Friday come out, the PCE number came out. It's basically reiterating the point that easing of inflation data continues to come in showing promise again, obviously we're not there yet. And next thing you know, you know, again, you can't even make this up. Next thing you know, we literally not only, you know, gap and go, which basically I said you have to be out of your mind to buy a gap up, right? We made it back through the whole day after a major reversal, but that worked as well. And next thing you know, the $10 that we lost, right, the 10 bucks that we lost on the queues in the last hour, we made it back through the whole day. And now we're literally, literally a stone throws away back from where we were on Thursday at three o'clock, right, before this nasty self. So, you know, look, the longer you trade in this business, two things are going to happen. You guys, you eventually get to see it all, right? Eventually you will see it all. Eventually you'll go through every single thing that a trader goes through. You'll go on a massive dump in your career, a massive drawdown that feels like you can't get out. And then after a while, when you get more screen time, more experience, you're going on a massive run that eventually everybody goes to. The market's also going to tell you that you are not smarter than the market. You might think you're trading long enough, the market's always going to throw you a curveball. This was the curveball. This was not only a curveball. This was this curveball, screwball, sinker, spitball, everything possible, right? Knuckleball, everything possible into the dirt. And it landed on Friday. So if you look at what happened, and a lot of my friends, when I've told you a lot of my friends got murdered come Friday, thank God we were, you know, we were only short Tesla, you know, Tesla with a five point marker. So it wasn't, it wasn't that bad because Tesla opened up three, gave us an opportunity to get out. But some of my buddies just got absolutely murdered. I mean, and I spoke to a lot of guys throughout the day on Thursday into Friday session. And all they kept on saying is how that after this happened, right? It just doesn't make sense. And my reminder is it never makes sense, right? We always talk about, you know, people always complaining about a market meltup for the last, for the last six months, the first five, six months of the year, actually seven months of the year now, right? And people say, well, this doesn't make sense. It doesn't have to make sense. But when you get an overnight close, when you have a situation that we had technical damage occur within golf and candle, it took down four days of buying. And we still made up that whole move on Friday, even the most experienced trader, even the most fabulous trader, I don't care what your process is, you're going to be humbled, you're going to be wrong. And then you can be asking yourself, where was that license plate of the truck that just ran me over? So it's kind of to kind of summarize, long as got absolutely destroyed on Thursday from three o'clock into the close, and shorts got absolutely destroyed going short overnight into Friday's opening the PCE. So I was wrong. I'm talking about wrong, but the greatest part about what I do and I consider myself a very, very good risk manager. I'm very, very good at it. No way near the best trader in the world. Don't care to be. Don't want to be. I don't know what this best trade in the world is. Sherlock's Hell is not me. But I'm very good at protecting my capital. I don't put on necessary risks. So a lot of traders, what they would continue to do is pile on shorts throughout the whole move. I was just sitting there waiting, letting my game plan play out. Because I seen so many times that the market gaps up. And then an hour later, 40 minutes later, it craps out. So I was waiting for that. By the time 11 o'clock came, 1130 came, I was sitting there. And I was just sitting there and I'm like, wow. Okay. And I didn't put on a single. I did not put on a single day trade for the morning session. And by the time lunchtime came, I was like, you know what? It's been a fabulous week. I got it wrong. My game plan was wrong. Let me start on Monday, right? I took a half a day off. I decompressed. I kind of just got my thoughts together. And I feel great. I feel absolutely great now. And I'm ready to tackle the new week. And that's a very, very important thing that many new traders are not able to do. They're not able to understand that their game plan was wrong. They're not wrong. You don't have to be wrong. You don't have to be financially wrong if you're theoretically wrong. I was wrong. My game plan was wrong. The price action that corresponded in my research the night before was 100% wrong. But I was sitting there Monday morning shorting stocks until my head exploded. No. You just kind of sit back and relax and say, hey, my game plan didn't work. I was wrong theoretically. It's Friday. There's some phenomenal action throughout the week. You know what? It's just not my day. I miss my window. The window is closed. I'm not about to start trading in the afternoon. Let me take off, clear my head and start again on Monday. So it's a very, very important lesson, guys. When your game plan goes the other way, and we say this all the time. It's okay to be wrong. Right? I'm wrong every single day. Just don't be wrong financially. Don't be a stubborn mule sitting there and say, well, it doesn't make sense. Let me just keep on going in that direction. No, you don't do that. You're an adult. You're a professional trader. I don't care if you're trading for 24 years like myself or 24 months. You're a professional trader. Your money is as good as everybody else's. So instead of compounding the problem and reacting in an emotional way, just take a step back, understand that, you know what? Certain days your research is not going to play out the way you thought, and you have two choices. Either try to chase performance, right? Chase performance, which is very, very incredibly wrong because that's an emotional act. And the last thing you want to do is continue to trade emotionally, right? The longer you continue to trade emotionally, your career, the higher probability your career will end short. Or you could put yourself in a situation and say, you know what? It's okay. Right? It's okay. I missed my window. Monday starts a new week. The data that I'm going to look at on the weekend is going to support my next day thing. I won't be emotional and I'll be technically ready for my game plan, hopefully, to react and confirm. So it was a very crazy week. Actually, no, excuse me, it was a crazy last two days. The week was actually very orderly, very, very good solid week. We saw earnings. This week we have, and again, I'm just speaking from the technology point of view. We have AMD and Uber and Qualcomm and shop and PayPal, obviously Apple and Amazon are going to be the biggies, Alibaba as well. If you trade Alibaba towards the end of the week. So so far, pretty mixed bag on the earnings, swoleboard, so far with technology. But hey, if you look at the final swoleboard, and again, that's the end of the day, the final swoleboard is the final swoleboard. You know, we're still the queues are only what a couple of points away from yearly highs, which went and look at and look at the 60 minute view, right? We are a point away from reclaiming 385. That's the big number going into, you know, that's the big number going into a Monday session is 385 level, right? The high here is 385, even with this massive reversal here put in the high of 384.52. So if the queues can start reclaiming back 385, yeah, we'll start rallying back again. So crazy market, right? We're all human beings. We're going to be right. We're going to be wrong a lot. The most important thing is own it, right? Own it. Don't run away from it. Don't worry, guys. I promise you throughout your career, you don't need to, you know, you don't need to to be that, you know, that trader that needs to be right. You don't need to be right. You need to be fiscally responsible, right? I don't care, you know, how many times I get it wrong theoretically. As long as I'm putting myself in situations that long term, I'm still okay. You're going to be fine. The problem is the trader, especially the new trader, especially with social media always seems to be that I need to be right. I can't, you know, I can't let people see me with my faults. I can't, you know, I can't have people think that I'm stupid. Guys, you know, big, big, big, big, big disappointment, right? Big, big, absolutely disappointment news flash. All of us are wrong, right? All of us are wrong. Traders get it wrong. And we're going to continue to get it wrong. Our job is just to kind of omit how many times we get it wrong so we can thrive for longevity. So going into this week, again, what a difference between a day makes again, 385 is to the upside, right? 385 is to the upside. You can see it here. It stopped three times at this 385 level. The bulls are going to need to get above this 385 level to attack the upper Bollinger. Obviously the downside, right? The downside is still this 20 day moving average. And obviously, we are now, you know, 11 points away from that downside moving average. But the way this market trades, anything could happen, anything at times. So always, you know, one trade at a time, one day at a time. So let's talk about some ideas for, for Friday, I mean, for Monday, right? Roku, congratulations to all you guys for quote that 7550 pivot on Friday, I mean, huge move, huge, huge move, close at the highs of the day. The play on Roku is new, they started coming for the 100, 105 call short term, the play, the value play is obviously any dip on Roku into this rising support. I briefly would like to see this green line, right? This green line. And again, we don't know what the price is going to be because they adjust Monday morning. But the green line kind of represents kind of a 10 day moving average. So I would love to see Roku on a dip into rising support, trap, go read the green and take out Friday's highs for a potential day to run, lift, lift is starting to look good again. We had a really nice pivot on lift about two weeks ago is starting to get good again. They continue to come for the short term, $14, $15 calls, definitely, definitely one to watch. Netflix finally might be ready, finally might be ready for the dead cat bounce as well as, and I know somebody's going to turn around and say, well, then it bounced $12 on Friday. Yeah, I did, but it still didn't take out the previous day's channel. Remember, stock cannot go higher, it could go up, but it can't go higher if it doesn't take out the previous day's range. And you can see it stopped perfectly on the previous day's range. This is actually one to watch, especially if they sell off the market early, a little bit of profit taken from Friday's session. Let's see if they could reclaim the five day and if it can reclaim the five day, maybe you'll get an actual day to run into the into the mid 30s. So definitely keep an eye on that. And you know, a stock like TTD, right, it was added to the NASDAQ 100, had good earnings. I believe that earnings were early. I know for a fact it was added to the NASDAQ 100. It's flagging pretty nicely here. Watch this thing at the top of the channel here. You know, Tesla, again, Tesla got saved, man, got saved by this, got saved by this, by this number, by this PC number, boy, oh boy. But again, it still hasn't taken out the previous day's range for, again, for me to get bullish, like to really get bullish on Tesla. And you can see it's kind of in the middle of the range here in this whole channel here. It's going to need to reclaim the 10 day moving average or lose the bottom of the range here. Right now, as you can see, it's right in the middle of both. So I'm kind of Delta neutral so far on Tesla. Amazon actually looks pretty good for this week ahead of the numbers. They've been coming for the 135s, 140s into Amazon earnings. Little reports this week as well. Hasn't really done anything since that glorious spike that we got into today last week. So it's something to watch as well. But again, market's crazy, guys. Always remember, it's never going to make any sense. You're never going to be perfect. You're never going to be the quote, unquote, so-called great trader. Again, I've said this for years. There's no such thing as a great trader. All of us throughout the year is just get less crappier. And I say that in the most PG wave possible. We just get less crappier and try to omit the things that we know are wrong. Revenge trading, boredom trading, trading because the market's opened up because we're getting value in 3,000 other moving parts. So again, guys, wild couple of days, hope everybody thrived, hope everybody survived. More important, it's over, right? Just like the way you were 21 and 16 years old, right? That part of your life is over. That past week is over. The past is the past. We don't live there anymore. Monday is the first day of your trading rest of your life. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a great weekend, and I'll see you all on Monday. Take care.