 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 10th of January with me Patrick Mundley. Starting in the US next week really inflation remains top of mind with Wednesday's release of US CPI for December. Inflation is set to tick above 7% as measured by the CPI index despite the month-on-month pace of price growth easing from 0.8% to 0.4%. Then at 7 o'clock on Wednesday the Fed releases its latest edition of the Bayes book which summarizes financial economic conditions in the US. Back on Tuesday sorry Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is due to speak on Bloomberg TV following the release of December's minutes and their commentary on some participants viewing the labor market conditions for hiking as being met commentary from individual members will be key for market pricing of liftoff shortly after Kansas City Fed President Esther George is set to outline her views on the economy and monetary policy. Focus afterwards remains on monetary policy makers but in a different manner as the Senate banking committee meets to hold a hearing on chair Powell's renomination. It's largely expected to be a smooth re-appointment for Powell given his stance as a dovish republican Fed chair. To wrap up the day St. Louis Fed President James Bullard discusses the economy and monetary policy at a virtual event with the mid-sized bank coalition of America. It is worth noting that all Fed presidents set to speak on Tuesday are voting members in 2022. Then on Thursday we get US PPI data for December and the latest jobless claims data is released also core PPI is set to rise from 7.7 to 8% as supply chain disruptions continue to bite while jobless claims data will be viewed in reference to December's non-farm payment rolls release. Senate banking committee then reconvenes for a nomination hearing on Leo Brainard's appointment as vice chair while both hearings are important from a market perspective both appointments still require the full support of the Senate before they become filing. Wrap up the day then on Thursday with Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin who's set to discuss his economic outlook at an event hosted by the Richmond Chamber with Chicago Fed President Evan set to speak also an event hosted by the Milwaukee Business Journal. Both members are set to vote again on policy in 2022 and then we round out the week in the US on Friday with retail sales. Sales increased 0.3% in November having served 1.8% in October. This was the fourth straight month of gains unlikely a response to consumers tendency to shop early ahead of the holidays to avoid disappointment of empty shelves a rotation in spending from goods back to services may also remain a drag on the data from a technical perspective in terms of the dollar index tracking this corrective complex corrective pattern ultimately now whilst we hold resistance 96.55 we look for a test of the equality objective 95.08 we have monthly projected range support coming in just above 95.18 and we have this pivotal trend line support as well so I'm watching the bullish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the long side ultimately then looking for a move up into the 97.40s to 98.14 as a upside objective versus the support apps the 94.90s at this stage really it would take a loss on a closing basis of the trend line support to suggest that we have a more meaningful high in place and we could start to think about a move back down to take a look at the yearly pivots from above at 93.89 in the eurozone gain next week it's largely centered around inflation data for December relatively light start to the week in terms of data releases in the eurozone on Monday we do get eurozone syntax investor confidence for January data is likely to show the impact of the rising cases in mainland europe on sentiment especially as restrictions are tightened at the margin in most economies. Friday's final reading of french and Spanish CPI data for December will be released with the first glimpse of the core measures being printed. Germany then releases its GDP data for 2021 the economies expected to grow 2.7 percent over the course of the year although it's likely that the data will be revised in a later date from a technical perspective in terms of the euro dollar whilst we hold one 1220 support we have an equality objective 1409 similarly to the dollar index of monthly or the inverse to the dollar index sorry we have a monthly range resistance 1440 so i'm watching this descending trend line as well coming in in that zone so watch for bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side looking for the next leg of the downside to ultimately get a move towards that one 1050 support zone and the 78.6 percent retracement i referenced in my live training analysis session last thursday you can catch that video through the blog where we talk about that significant weekly trend line and the 78.6 percent retracement target zone we don't have any tier one data in terms of japan next week so we'll just quickly update the technicals here whilst we hold support at the 115 level i'm ultimately looking for another leg of upside to test the 117 30 area we also have that quality objective target there coming in at 117 1770 monthly projected range resistance and the ascending trend line resistance all coming in in that target sense we're watching for bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side certainly thinking about a retest of trend line support at 115 30 and maybe a more meaningful pullback to take a look at monthly projected range support coming in 113 80 in the uk next week we have we have tuesday uk retail sector will be in scope as the brc life light sales data for december is released after rising to 1.8 in november due to the impact of black friday and earlier seasonal shopping in order to avoid supply chain issues sales are likely to flatline in december and also on friday we get uk gdp for gdp at 0.5 per cent month over month for november and 7.6 per cent year over year mainly due to slightly faster growth in the services sector but any momentum looks set to slow temporarily in the coming months due to the spring of omnicon however most analysts remain optimistic the current downtrend in infections will auger a spring rebound in activity from a technical perspective sterling dollar is just shy of testing the pivotal trend line resistance coming in 136 20 we have the yearly pivot just above 136 45 i'm watching for bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side certainly then thinking about a test of the monthly pivot back down to 134 14 if we get through there and monthly projected range support prior lows in the 132 area then we still have that open quality objective at 130 but some initially we want to pay close attention to how price responds here at the yearly pivot if we get it close through the yearly pivot then i'll be switching to a more bullish stance on sterling and certainly and i'm thinking about a retest of the 138 36 to the upside so all eyes on the trend line test and the yearly pivot watch for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side and wrapping it all up down under in australia what do we have most notable data point for next week is going to be tuesday's australia trade balance and retail sales data for november also released on tuesday after peaking in august australia's trade services expected to continue moderating with a consensus estimate at about 1.07 billion meanwhile retail sales are expected to continue showing robust monthly momentum with a print of 3.8 per cent month over month expected following october's bumper 4.9 percent reading from a technical perspective as the australian dollar holds 71 20s of support i'm looking for another leg to the upside to ultimately get a test into the yearly pivot and the descending trend line coming in around 74 20s from there i'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side at this stage the negating the extended corrected move would really require a close back through that 71 20 area on a closing basis which would then set up a retest of the price cycle low 69 90 and then on down into trend line support 68 60s but like i said whilst we hold friday's lows then we look for another leg to the upside before engaging on the short side once again and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 10th of january as always traders plan the trade trade the planner most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much