 Very good morning. It is Friday 17th of January. I hope everything is going well, and you've had a good week so far Just would like to expect your tickets, please Destination 30,000 It almost seems now the market if anything has become Somewhat behavioral to some extent and the confirmation of course of the the trade war phase one going smoothly this far Markets really have just kind of grinded it out Throughout the last couple of days. I mean comparative to where we were What it's about two weeks ago now week and a half ago when you know markets were you know big swings in sentiment There was a lot of response Outside of oil into global asset prices in regards to what happened and what was unfolding the tensions in the Middle East But given how rapidly that de-escalated and given the relative smooth passage of this Part one of the trade deal between the US and China the markets have just continued to To move higher and last night we closed on the Dow up about 267 points and you can see here if I just quickly flick onto my charts the DAX Just coming up to break through in the futures in the center left chart here It's our one and we're up about a hundred points there already and US index futures Continuing to edge higher the Dow future now at twenty nine thousand three hundred and twenty two, but As I was just saying this this is a graphic of those To kind of year or let's say twelve month performance of these US indices and it's just been phenomenal and outperforming has been the technology names In terms of the last 24 hours you can see the NASDAQ composite In these major three indices, so you've got the NASDAQ composite Then you got the S&P 500 the Dow slightly lagging in regards to how severe the rally has been But if we have a look at this this is now The club of one trillion dollars in US firms Basically has a has a new a new member so alphabet becoming the fourth US company that's crossed the one trillion dollar valuation mark Amazon has seen some fluctuation, but generally speaking now these these companies just continue to power on At this point in time from a from a sector basis yesterday You can see then all these tech giants performing relatively well and that underpinning some of the support from yesterday Elsewhere in the banking sector. You can see really bright spots here for MS Morgan Stanley up in excess of six and a half percent They had record earnings So following in suit with some of the others that we've seen JP Morgan earlier in the week and and certainly US earnings Will start to ramp up in terms of the number of companies reporting next week And then overnight what else have we had? Well, we've had Chinese data Some gross numbers that came out GDP well, let me just look over to this GDP on a What depends what measurement actually that you're you're looking at the GDP year-to-date came in at? 6.1% and that does as per this graphic would indicate Mark the weakest level of growth that you can see in some near close to 30 years But this isn't a negative And this is really important because press often Will sensationalize certain headlines and it all sounds quite doom and gloom China's economy growing at slowest pace in three decades But in fact if anything this is a slightly positive situation The idea that it's not worse than it is here and and underlying the GDP were if you actually look on the the year on year reading not year-to-date that was at 6% in the fourth quarter and Actually that was in line with expectations the industrial output in fact beat expectations By a clear percent and retail sales was a slight beat and as you can see here fixed asset investment Accelerated for the first time since June so even within that data was some positive elements and you know market positioning is already Anticipating the level of where the government in China has been already indicating this is where growth would be so it's not a surprise The other thing here as well and something I was in a Twitter conversation with someone yesterday was this notion that you know This was the previous situation You know these are fixed kind of hard data sets from the past and what the market is viewing now And why we've got such a kind of a risk on mentality at least for the moment is that you know the trade deal secured eliminates any immediate fear of escalation which really clouded global growth through the majority of the last 12 18 months, you know remember it was only What four months ago in the middle of September and kind of late August when people are really panicking about the global Economy and that led to the inversion of the yield curve You know things have quite quite wildly different where we are at the moment And importantly the key macro factor here is the trade war has progressed and it has progressed in a way of which Then the the key risk although still a clear present danger has now Kind of lowered down the scale of probabilities of it becoming a real disruptor For the foreseeable future and so for people looking at these Chinese data. Yes growth It's it has been Slowing for some time so it's no way anywhere near a surprise to be at 6% level It's within the government's target the government in itself are taking various measures to help Domestically support their economy as two of the People's Bank of China And people are forward-looking and so for the moment at least Markets continue to just trade this this this narrative and and you know, I just wonder how Behavioral the market now becomes. I mean I remember If I go if I look back at the Dow Just trying to think when it was I mean, this is a picture of the long-term Perspective of the Dow and I've got 30,000 marked up right at the top But I do distinctly remember, you know, if you were to eliminate this right-hand side of the chart I remember the conversations we were having when we first broke 20,000 Don't know if you can cast your mind back a few years and 20,000 at the time was like the big figure that everyone was kind of eyeing up If I just shift over this chart here for a moment remember we we hadn't never hit 20,000 at the time and it was a really interesting Psychological move or behavioral move that happened when we really broke 19,000 that you can see how Quickly the market. I mean it was literally within one week or so We rose as we rose the best part of thousand points in the Dow You know, you can see all this kind of pent up movement that we had through 2015 16 We were up at what was the time record highs and then we had this period of consolidation And it was really interesting again from a behavioral point of view We basically hit our key objective of 20,000 and it was like well why 20,000? Well, why not 20,000, you know, it's just a way of which the human mind tends to operate and it becomes somewhat self-fulfilling and Soon as we hit 20,000 what happened was you can see Complete area of consolidation, but then we broke 20,000 We'll where next and we hit 21,000 and again that only took a matter of weeks and you know It almost feels like we're back into that type of mentality. I mean look how Amazing the rally was at the end of 2017 Of course that we had the US corporate tax cut come in Which was a surprise that he managed actually to to pass that key policy given his failed attempts at repealing Obamacare and the Islamic travel ban and so on from a top-level policy perspective, but If you look at the the way We're moving at the moment. It's kind of like well, I know we're we're 600 points off But that's by no means an unforeseeable target and I just wonder whether or not this now becomes a little bit of a tractor beam I mean, I know for sure Sam's already not ordered. He's already bought and received his Dow 30,000 hat I mean that that just goes to show I don't think he's on his own I think there's a lot of people like that and it's almost like well You might see some little intraday little bumps in the road But ultimately we're going there and then and then you'll see the market come off a little bit once it hits its It's target and this target being 30,000. So yeah, I mean at the moment other than that Things are pretty quiet There's not really too much else for me to talk about tea notes and gold have been pretty sideways overnight if anything a Little bit of a mixed bag on the correlations front because gold is actually up about five bucks Despite some of the equity movement the tenure making a little bit more sense from a traditional Inverse relationship point of view down about a tick or so Now that's been an interesting point talking to some of the traders here this week I think it has been a little bit of a trickier week to trade Because there's been the lack of a real clear fundamental driver And so, you know, what's really important if you are training the intraday is you've got to be flexible You've got to be objective You've got to reevaluate each day on the merits of its own conditions and the own calendar of events that are coming out and And I think what's quite difficult when you're new or you're a junior trader It is obviously you take somewhat confidence out of the repetition and the deployment of similar types of tactics or routine And the idea is this week has seen Correlations sometimes not quite work out in their normal in their normal way And I guess the learning curve with experience that will come is then being adaptive to know when to you know When to up the size when to not when to trade when to not and to become more conservative But this is all part of the the normal evolution. I guess of that learning and development phase Elsewhere final kind of two things I want to mention before then hand-drived a Sam This is ongoing as I pointed out a few days ago The Phil Hogan who's kind of the negotiator on behalf of Europe has been in Washington whilst these Chinese talks have also been happening Hogan's been talking in regard to trying to find some type of international accord on Tech tax which then prompted the Americans to put in pretty chunky Tariffs on French goods to the tune of what 2.4 billion dollars worth. I think it was This is going to be quite a key subject not so much for now in today's strategies, but for next week There's a few more meetings that will be happening at a top level So it's going to be signed to monitor and then elsewhere looking at the calendar for the the day ahead you do have UK retail sales coming out at half nine and You know, this is one graphic that I want to show you which is looking at the short end in fixed income to get an implied probability of the likelihood of markets positioning for Bank of England action at their interest rate decision Which happens the day after the Fed So you've got the FOMC rate decision on the 29th And then you've got the BOE on the 30th the day after and if you actually look at it The market is pricing an interest rate cut from the Bank of England And it's been a phenomenal change in expectations. It's kind of dovish switch in rhetoric from majority now Of the NPC members in addition to some of the weakness of economic data And that's why today's retail sales report could well be one of interest As we've said, we've had some really important data throughout the week from disappointments in UK growth Industrial manufacturing production Inflation all of them would be indicative that the Bank of England the likelihood of a cut The the the evidence is growing that that could be the necessary action that needs to happen as soon as even this month a Markets reflect that with a 6040 split in favor of a cut of 25 basis points So be interested to see how that comes out later I'm sure Sam will look at the chart from a technical perspective in a moment of how how to play out that data But yeah, it's going to be an interesting thing to watch for today. Otherwise, what else on the calendar? If we go further forward into the morning, you've got your own CPI, but these are final readings So not expecting too much from that in all honesty So let's move forward to the US afternoon housing starts building permits US industrial production cap utilization University in Michigan sentiment. This is the preliminary reading so do be aware of that And then Baker Hughes Rick out for any of the oil traders from a speaker point of view afternoon Feds Harker and Kuala speaking The former on monetary policy so that'd be a two and five forty five p.m. London time and Yeah, that that's pretty much it. There's no real major earnings coming out Maybe one in the more industrial link names Schlumberger is reporting State Street from the banking side but nothing too much to From an index trading point of view. All right, go leave it at that That's it from me again as per usual if you are watching this You're not already subscribed to the channel on YouTube Do remember to click that button and hit the bell icon to put on your notifications We'll be putting out briefings as per usual every day and we'll be covering live events on an ad hoc basis But definitely the Fed and the Bank of England son will be doing live on the channel so otherwise, I wish you a great weekend and We'll see you on Monday. Thanks very much guys Hi guys. Good morning. So Leah a matter of seconds before we get a new fresh all-time high in the s&p 500 spiked higher in the early Asian trade and it's a matter of moments before we get to that incredible market it seems Only to be wanting to go one direction at the moment I've read a stat this morning that maybe will give the bears hope one day and it was how we've had 66 days in a row of trading where the market the s&p 500 hasn't gone 1% to the upside last two times that happened January 2018 and October 2018 of course where markets then proceeded to come down quite a Lot so well, we'll see we'll see what happens that we all know that a slow grind up is what These stock markets love. However, it might be that's the Dow Jones That 30,000 becomes a bit of a magnet and then what will be will be can we make it before any real Correction in the market. So I think you've got a favor that there would be unless there was a major Development fundamentally or the data got incredibly good It seems as though we're gonna we're gonna push higher having a look in today opportunities To potentially get in on this move If we have a look at yesterday's trading for a bit of a guide along with the other previous days You are still getting decent pullbacks previous highs We come back into the afternoon lit the cash open take place and we and we push higher and you see here yesterday On Wednesday, what was the morning high? Phase one deal. Okay, nothing really new and there's a drama comes back to that area Bonds level support and we push on to the upside as well. So there's a couple opportunities Where we have retraced a bit you could argue Here the previous morning area of resistance is twenty nine thousand three hundred in the Dow is not a bad area Looking at S&P you could say It's around thirty three twenty and the Nasdaq I think it's pretty bit more to go It's almost happening now the classic of that that previous high Of course as you go into the back end of the week, you know may well get some people wanting to to take a bit a Profit on these moves if we have a look in the evening Of the last couple of days you are getting that further pushers for some reason people believe stocks to be Underbought and we keep going higher and higher. So Target-wise, I think you know for the longer term those round numbers Certainly on the Dow will be One to to focus on there's no obviously horizontal Resistance other than that the pivot levels and potentially some Fibonacci areas people would be looking at you can also see this is quite interesting Which I had on my Other chart you got a trend line that was respected the 10th and the 14th And having broken through in the hours early hours overnight. We found my support on that So if you're still long Maybe over the last couple of days For the S&P it would be a case of I'm happy to stay long as long as this trend line holds Which it's it's doing quite well and we just there as you see just hit that new all-time high Yet again have a look over the currencies now start off with the pounds as Really from that Monday morning briefing when we're talking about is this going to be The low for a while. Well, you can see just how well that trend line has been respected here However, of course, it's not out the woods But decent first real test back of that trend line for quite some time and anyone sure be looking to take profit there Of course, you've got the the right hike now a very cut as I said priced in what's the next step Well, we'll have to wait and see looking more intraday on this market. Let's remove That trend get the pivots on as you can see we're in a nice Well up week for once for the pound I'd have a couple of trend lines on these lows just to for more for a guide than anything perhaps later on we Find support on one of those To make it, you know that third test before a breakthrough And then that gives that opportunity pivot today much like yesterday seems an area where you could call it a line In the sand where the bulls would want to Still have control and and it has offered a bit of support Over the last sort of 24 hours and before that as well for eight hours For a push higher above where we're training The R1 is the high that we had back on the tent, which is the low of the eight So a key level there 131 18 I'd have that marked up and then as well that comes in On this trend line we had yesterday and then on the futures the trend line that actually Was from Say the the 31st to the 7th that broke through yesterday, but quite choppy However, once we've confirmed that break above you can see price did find support there So I'd have that on in the case of any move lower the S1s and these areas of support from yesterday As well worth keeping an eye on the ranges in the pounds not massive I wouldn't be all too surprising. Let me just remove these areas to see price contained Between that top part the R1 and that area there. Let's call that one 31 26 and one 30 68 Euro dollar It's a it's a it's a market where my overall view is we do come lower Longer term It's looking for that opportunity to get in of course we broke that trend nine from those lows Last week. We're just starting to build up another one here on the euro from the low that we had on the 10th You can see we get that drawn on depending where you have it on those lows I guess here is fine because you can see it's really clearly been respected. This is an opportunity you'd argue here there There and they're making that trend a break of that we can see a further push lower I know yesterday a couple people were looking at the the fib level to get that drawn on from the high that we had back on the 31st to that low of the year and 50% got hit yesterday. You can see pretty much perfectly reason I like this level. It's also the higher the 8th and though the 7th and It was yesterday's R1 if you want any more resistance levels Well, yeah, you struggle to find much more than that. What an area and we have come down since Line in the sand to the upside Well, the pivot looks like a pretty good place where you could find some Resistance probably want to see a bit of confirmation the way this market is traded but here you've got the 50% fib If we can get above there by the end of week that would be a big move well done to the balls if we break this trend line Where it could be buy buy for a bit for the euro and that's that the trade I prefer the pivot I want to see that confirmation because obviously it gives that area where buyers above sellers below It could lead to a decent sized move. I'm gonna look over at oil yesterday In the afternoon of the trade just before the European close anyway We broke this this this trend channel that have been on of course it was relatively Roughly drawn but well respected enough and you can see once we broke above there got that close We then led to a further push higher I know I think that is the downside done for now for oil unless we were to false break it finish back in and then Yeah, let's target that low But the break of that trend channel you've got to be happy if you're if you're a ball and if you're still in that Trade, you know, you've got a nice place to almost have that stock below pivot good area support Yesterday's high you can see why it was was also those loads of the 13th before we broke down There's your mini range 58 38 to the downside and 88 to the upside So have a quick look over at gold before I'm gonna look over European equities just to rack things up You've got a pretty good ceiling here on the R1 the previous harsh from yesterday Overnight and then the day before that as well in the beginning of the week on the 13th I mean what a level you can see here as well the ninth of the 10th It was an area of resistance. Can we get above there for the week? And close there big for the for the bulls and obviously then you're looking looking at that previous double top here at 1563 couple key resistance levels there through both of them Well, you're suddenly thinking about well, hang on Let's get back up towards those highs that we had on the well the highs of the year and and and so on But they will most likely hold price I would say today if equities continue to push higher to the downside area support where you would want it to break if you were Bear yesterday's low and then the morning midday UK time low of Wednesday, that's where I'll be looking at coming in around 1547s As well just below where we're trading if you are looking To hold a position to go long or you're short from up at yesterday's highs 1554.3 Interesting level previous high from overnight Asian session and then the morning low as well Pretty key level that I would have not want to to have marked up there. So that a quick look then over at European equities After those all-time highs hit again on the S&P maybe this is where you just get a bit of profit taking again The Dax might have to be the one to give it an extra push And that's just finding some resistance up on the high that we had back on the beginning of the week Just making a new high for the week there above here You've got a lot of a lot of noise back from the the 10th. So keep a watch on that above there Well, the Dax has made a new high for the year and well these equities what's going to stop them You'd have to say Any questions, please do let us know for those trading the Dax keep an eye on that previous high on the R1 That would be an area support. You'd want to hold to stay long a couple decent technical levels a couple of Interesting closes into the back end of the week. I'll put some of these up on my Twitter later on But I hope you'll have a great trading day any questions get them in there in the chat And I hope you'll have a great weekend ahead and fingers crossed for an Arsenal win tomorrow