 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Basil Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hi, folks. Basil Chapman here. This is Thursday, January the 25th, and we're looking at a market that just, I mean, it looks like it has IBM. Look at that spectacular move in IBM, and for a year I've been saying IBM is the comeback kid and didn't go long. Just I'm not sure even why. Well, one of the reasons is we chose Microsoft as the kind of go-to that embraces everything. Okay, that's the way it is. But it is spectacular. We've looked up $20 and $193, a fantastic move in IBM. Now let's just go through these numbers again. The reason why I said to subscribers is that although we have no short positions, we have long positions, we have long positions at all different price ranges, I'm getting a little bit something inside me, and just maybe this is the problem with being in the market or at least studying it in great detail. I'm right in the forest, I can't see the forest for the trees, or I'm right in the trees, I can't see the forest. But my gut is saying with these on-balance volumes, as they are, look, here's the on-balance volume in the Dow. It made a high at exactly the 38,109 high of, all-time high, of the 22nd of January. It's pulled back a little bit, and the stochastic is at 81%, unlike the S&P, let me just show you, this is the left side chart, that's where the daily chart is. The S&P is at 92%, the weekly chart of the S&P is 95% and flat. The monthly chart is 86%, the QQQ, one, two, three, there we go, QQQ. The on-balance volume is extremely overboard, but the stochastic is at 92% and flat. I have a difficult time finding reason to short when you've got a flat stochastic, not over above 80% or 85%, not over 90%, but holding at the 92% level and not showing any deterioration. And the MACD, the histogram is still expanding, so that just says to me, before you decide to short, look at leadership, forget the emotional part of it, stay with what you're looking at. You remember yesterday I showed you these charts right here based on the black background. Simple, just there's nothing more simple than this, using a nine-period moving average over the 14-period moving average, yes, SMH is today up to 20, 194.61. So, but in trying to time a reversal, there are many things to look at. But in terms of the stretch above the nine-period moving average, this is the furthest we've been at any potential peak, and let me say potential peak, let me just go back here. Even this potential peak way back here, oh, it doesn't go back that far. I should. Why shouldn't it? 2022. And on this chart, I'm just going to go back much further. Let me do this right now. Another acceleration in the S&P having gone from 49.11, just in an eye blink to the 49.21 level. So, yeah, we are. So, what I'm looking at here is, let's go to two years back now. I'm going to go to, yeah, why not? And this has got 20 years back, 20 years back. So, I'm looking at this and I'm saying, when before will it be that far above the nine-period moving average? Well, here's one. I don't know what the day is. That's March of 2022. There's a whole series of this kind of spiky tops all the way here back in 2021. So, and that's the SMHs and you remember, as far as I'm concerned, SMHs need markets up, need markets down. So at this particular point, just on a visual basis, I haven't done any mathematical basis, although I'm pretty sure that the mathematical basis will say we're up there in terms of excessiveness. The distance between the nine-period moving average and the price itself is one of the greatest distances. Does that mean that you have to tumble? No. Okay. Let's just sort of chop, chop, choppy phase that goes. Let's give them semiconductors 200 as a high. We're at 194. Let's just go up to the 200 level up there. Actually, we just go 198, another three, four points. It does say that you could have a huge sideways consolidation, which is something that actually happens so many times that we could get that here. So all it does, going into, say, February, maybe it pulls back in next week, going into the first full week of February, and then you make a lower high, and then you start a February pull. I'm suspecting from everything I'm looking at that there's a really good chance to receive some kind of a February consolidation. I don't want to say smash to the downside, anything like that. I'm just saying consolidation. Now the other rule of thumb that I have, this goes back historically, is that when you are looking at the stochastic flat in the 95 or higher area, oh, did I write that down? No way. I think it was, oh no, there was a 120 minute chart with the stochastic at 100%. I have never seen that in the, I would like to say hundreds of thousands, but I would say at least the half a million charts that I've looked at, and let's just make it even the last 20 years. I don't think I've ever seen 100%, and I was about to write it down, did I write it down? No, I forgot to write it down. Oh my goodness, how dumb. Gosh, what a pity. 100%, I've never seen that, and the result is that at some point, that 100% or at least 98%, 97% does start to move down, and when it moves down, very often it goes all the way to the 20% level. So that's why I'm saying, I'm thinking over the next couple of weeks, we're going to see some digestion of these big, big gains, and I'm just calling it a digestion. At this point, to call it anything else, we are seeing deflation. Now what's interesting about deflation is if you look at the DBA, which is the DBA Agricultural Fund, we are still long from the 13th Australian right here, 2137. Even though the grains and the soft commodities react, and so this includes sugar, we're acting very poorly and had a tremendous decline from the high that was made at peak e-top at about 2240 something, back in November, went down all the way to the 20, 20, 10 was it, 20.39 level, 20.39 on the 8th of January. So that's saying that the commodities, if you look at the monthly chart on the right, still holding pretty high. So, but there has been a deflation aspect and a lot of things that we're hearing about suggest that there's some kind of a deflation, but you know, you go to the supermarket, you go anywhere, look at the automobile prices, the average cost of an automobile today is 48,000. Now if there's something else that I have to think about, that's quick. People are cheesy to get the extra goodies on the cars. That's why the prices are high. I'll be back. That was up 187. Then educating investors. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. 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The Gold Report New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's Gold Report newsletter now at tfnn.com The Tiger's Den Hosted at Discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. The Tiger's Den Available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfnn.com 727-6648, internationally at 727-873-7618 I thought I'd just do this during the break. I thought it would be appropriate to do this every evening. So this is something if you are a futures trader, many futures, especially the S&P futures, you've got to learn this pattern and this pattern can save you a fortune. Why? Because it's in the evenings from the 4 o'clock close or just before the 4 o'clock close or sometimes just after the 4 o'clock close, Eastern Time. The market stays in a narrow rectangle formation, which it did from the 3 o'clock to just after 4 o'clock move in the E-mini yesterday around the 200-period exponential moving average, this orange line right here. And look, in a narrow range, I mean we're talking about basically, let's look at that, it's 4893. It's called a 4893 as a low and the height did become 4904. So we're really talking about a very narrow trading range. Is that correct? Yeah, basically 4893 to 4903. 10 points after the spectacular moves we see and then you got the sudden news at 8.30 this morning and whoosh, pull back, didn't break the rectangle low and then spiral the way above the high. And now the 9-period moving average in the 10-minute chart is strong and that just says, hey, there's a chance that yesterday it failed at a peak C. That was unusual, but I did go over it almost immediately after I saw that it was a C and I said, uh-oh, there's a two-bar parallel high right here. I'm calling that a phantom peak at 4930.50 at 12.20 yesterday afternoon and then 12.30 was the next one. But the 5-minute chart gave a beautiful peak D and that was it. And now look at this, I draw it in a cup formation a little earlier. I don't know if anyone in the den saw me do this to say there's a good chance we're going to go back to that high and now we've gone just look at this rectangle same thing. So these big rallies that move now from this new 8.30 high, look, we're in basically a rectangle formation. Now we're making a chance of a leg D in the 1-minute chart, another 25 cents, it'll do that. So keep in mind that patterns are really important, but even more important is the strength in the next time frame to hold the positions. And here you're in leg D, this is a leg E, is it an E or is it a brand new C in the 5-minute chart? No problem, you don't have to even worry about that because the 9 is way above the 14 and this is the pattern that I've been using for about a year now to try to codify my two-click session. And that says early in the morning, it could be 6.30, it could be the 8.30 news event at ease in time, there's a chance that you get a chance to go click once on your e-mini futures or whatever you're trading, if you're able to trade pre-market, whatever vehicle, and you could hold it for a long time, sometimes all the way into the close of the day or after the close, but the object is to hold it as long as possible until you get really strong signs of weakness, and that would be the 9-period moving average turning negative, which it did yesterday or right here, right there, that big red candle, right there at 13.40, that's 1.40 in the afternoon. And in this particular instance, holding long is the way to be until it changes, a nice easy technique. Now, using that particular technique, what I was about to do was to go and say, look at this, right here, right here. This has all the technical indicators, there's the MACD, the stochastic, this is the Dow chart, Dow is up 212, and the on-balance volume, green line, and the 9-period moving average, this is the one that is almost always the most important. Yes, I use the on-balance volume, look at this low right here, that was the exact low on the 27th of October where you've got a V-shaped turnaround in the on-balance volume, everyone talks about the indicators as being lagging indicators, there is nothing lagging about an indicator that gives you an exact, it doesn't do it always, no it doesn't, you have to use other indicators to confirm, well immediately after that you do, but look at that, and even, this is unusual, look at this, this is the 27th of October, and look at that, the yellow line, the faster moving average in the stochastic moves, gives a V-shaped turnaround, and the very next session crosses positive, crosses a slow moving average, so don't always think that the textbook scenario of saying, oh moving averages are by their very nature lagging, no that's not true at all, most of the time is true, but there are times when it isn't, so why am I saying I didn't want to do anything negative because the market at this particular point is still suggesting that there should be higher prices, so what I was saying is the DBA, Agricultural Fund, is still up in the higher range, and it's actually almost filled in the huge gap from, that was a dividend gap, I remember we got a dividend, so that's it on the 15th, the week of the 15th of December is trading at a low of 21.61, and the very next week is trading at with a high of 23.11, and that's because of the dividend, so this is not an accurate reflection of the price because it does include the dividend, so within that context, yes we've had some deflationary aspect in some of the agriculture, try to find that in the supermarket, I don't think so, okay let's get back to the market now, I wanted to, I have a question that came in, yes, question came in, let me get to that, so let me just finish up here, I'm going to do this really quickly, because we're getting to the last week of January, so the weekly chart made a higher high in the weekly chart of the Dow, so this is still a leg A, it means that all of next week if there's no new high on whatever the high is this week in the Dow, so far it's 38,109, I actually have to give it to you to the penny because it goes one penny higher, 38,109.20, if it goes next week, if it goes to 21, if it hasn't done that this week, 0.21 or higher, that extends leg A for the 13th week, I think it's the 13th, and look at this leg seeing the day, I want you to do this real quickly here SPX, because today's action I think is really important, when we're close to days, we're going to have to assess this in a certain predetermined way, and the predetermined way is look at all the technicals, try to exclude your emotions, and then break down to the 120-minute charts, because that's what's going to give you a clue, and 120-minute chart of the S&P right now is peak A, peak B, peak C needs to go one penny above, 49 or 3.68, and to 0.69 saw us leg D. Yep, that's the way we're looking at it. Okay, the QQQ, 120-minute chart, peak C also needs just a little pop to the upside, and then we get a leg D, and at that point it either extended for today, leg D in the day, or to make an E, and then we're going to be a little bit careful, so I'll be back in a moment, 1,987 SPXs of 27,000 Chaplin-type conditions, now I'll get to all the questions as soon as we return. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. 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Hi folks, I had a question I'll get to in a moment. Could I look at the IBD stocks, some of the stocks, and I'll get to that. First of all, I want you to show you look, so the QQQs, look at that strong leg up. Just visually it says, yeah, it could be fine to have a bit of a digestive phase. What would take it back into at 428? What would take it back into the 410 to 400 area? It has to be some kind of news. And so far, the stocks that count like now, never like that when typing. Okay, there it is. NOW, NOW, NOW, why is that not showing up there? Okay, NOW, Leg C, huge move to the upside up 10 today at 773. This is a Leg B in the weekly chart. I didn't see any other way that I can count that. I suppose I could. No, I'm going to call it a B. And Leg C in the monthly chart, service now, cloud, order management, workflows, IT services, just everything that you want to see came up with good news. So that's acting extremely well. And that's leadership, new all-time high. So when you put this together with areas like HAC, which is the Prime Cyber Security ETF, it's under the 6797 November 2021 high, although it went from 67 down to 40. Here it is at 63. And just for just to be going with the technicals, which are all very positive, I'm calling that a D slash A. And this will have to be, I'm calling this a B. For now, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But right now, everything's positive. There's no reason that 92%. So that's HAC. This is a Prime Security in that you've got Palo Alto Networks, Palo Alto Networks. There it is, P-A-N-W. And that's important. Oh, I haven't, oh, look at this. Chapman-Roman candlestick is right there. Well, this is back when it was a pre-split. I love it. You see the way, look, you see that peak D? That meant that the price was there once upon a time. And then it got split. And it came down here. So this is now a brand new move to the upside leg, B in the monthly chart. Palo Alto Networks, one of the great cyber companies. And where is it? It's at 300 and hit a higher in the three. What was that? Did it hit 350? I think it just missed it. Doji candle three. Yep, 350.60 on the 22nd, four days ago, four sessions ago, I should say. And lo and behold, that is almost where it was pre-split. It's amazing how these stocks can do that. So as I'm looking at it, there's still internal strength in some of the sectors, but there isn't in others. And that just makes me a little bit worried. Yes, your peak D in the one-minute chart. This is a leg E going to peak E in the E-mini. I thought if someone asked me, could I just have a quick look at it? Yep, I will. Is this a sell signal? Well, it failed to the peak C when the five-minute chart was at D yesterday. It went to an E and it's pulling back. But the technicals in the 10-minute chart are still strong. But going on the one-minute and five-minute chart, I'm saying just be careful. At 49.19, if it closes for two bars under 410, the 49.05, 200-period exponential moving average in the five-minute chart will be the target. There's room to go just a little higher to the 49.28 level. That's going to be a resistance. So that's why I did that. I thought I'd do that quickly. Most importantly, so here we go. Before we get to the investors' daily stocks, I wanted to just talk about the GDX. So the GDX is up 37 cents at 28.07. My contention has been for months now, since October. Actually, October, November, December, January, almost for four months, is that I don't see anything in the gold area to have it have an intermediate term ready. I see spikes, et cetera. But I don't see anything more than that. Why do I say that? Because I think that the whole scenario of the Middle East with Israel is that the kind of equipment that they would need, airplanes, all that sort of thing, is not here needed. It's a ground attack that's going on right now. I'm talking about this only in terms of gold. In terms of gold, gold would have been the go-to place. It's the insurance policy for the Middle East. Whenever there's a problem, then geopolitically, you will see gold scream to the upside and then holding those gains and making higher highs. This is just not doing that, but it's not breaking down. That says to me that gold is holding okay as an independent unit. It is not being accelerated to the upside at all yet. So that to me says that the GDX, which is the miners, if the miners are leading, it means that the demand for gold is active, not emotional, but it's there. And I don't see that. So that's what I want you to just do. Someone could just clarify your feeling on gold. Silver is something different. Silver is just chart pattern-wise. It's also holding okay. But at this point, what happens is gold will suddenly spike, and then silver will play catch-up and then surpass gold. And then gold will turn around and say, hey, wait a minute, wait for me. And then when they're both going up together, that's when you get your sharpest decline. So at this particular point, silver is acting poorly. Gold is acting poorly. But I don't rule them out because individual companies, gold companies or silver companies could be having something different, but they aren't dependent on the actual price of gold at this particular point. And if you're looking at the dollar, look at this, the dollar, where is it now? It's up 22 tex, so 103.45. It got repelled to the 200-period moving average. But look at that indicator of last resort, the nine-period over the 14, fabulous. The MACD's good, Stochastic said 80% on the relative strength is okay. It's not great. So the dollar is still in play, but it's not really accelerating above the 200-period moving average, 103.74. It needs 104.35 to say, you know what? I'm going to the higher side of this particular rally. At this point, it's stalling consolidation for about two weeks. Now, the other thing I want to look at was, where did it go? Where did it go? Yes. So the IAI, this is to me a big clue. If the IAI, the IASHA has broken dealer and security ETF after the spectacular November, December to January move, it's had four weeks now of stalling. If this indicator, trading at 105.72, I call it an indicator. If it starts at any point on any day, it doesn't even have to be over looking at the weekly close anything. On any day, if it touches 112 in the next two, three weeks, I think that's going to be spectacular for the market. It hasn't done that. It's kind of stalled over here. And I'm putting the XLF, which is the financials, in the same category. Acting really nicely at 38.41, there has to be some financial spider fun. At 38.40, if it goes to 40.25, that's it. I'll be back in a moment, jazz up 81. Hubs of the London OTC market, the US futures market, and the Shanghai gold exchange, the gold report. Tom O'Brien publishes his weekly gold report every Monday morning for subscribers, consisting of coverage of the XAU, HUI, GDX, the dollar, bonds, the South African RAND, as well as 25 different mining equities with specific buy sell recommendations. The gold report. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. Subscribe to Tom O'Brien's gold report newsletter now at TFNN.com. Tom publishes his daily market insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox. Whether you're a season trader or just starting out, market insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence. Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? 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To obtain a Prospectus or Summary Prospectus, please contact Direction Chairs at 866-476-7523. The Prospectus or Summary Prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. When did, how does, when can stock, what is, yeah, announces, oh, there it is. Direction announces reverse February 18, 2022. Tell me, why don't I have it updated? Sox reverse, oh, there it is, reverse split 2024. Sox's eighth split took place on March 28, 2022. This was one of them. Oh, man, which shares split in 2024. Oh, there it is. It tells you, no, no, no, no, oh, the split date is 25-1, 2024. Oh, January 24th. Oh, that's today. So that says, I don't know if that's the SOXS, some of them do. So you've got to be careful. Now, I offer, I look at this over the years and years and years. The SOXS and the SPXS, these are three times short. One is the short the, oops, one is short the semiconductors, the other is short the S&P, SPXS. So here it is trading at 10.83. I remember having looked at this over and over and over. I think I still have, in fact, I don't know what it is. Back in 2018, I think it was 2018. I was going to Australia. I think that's where it was. And I bought a position in the, was it the SPXS? Something like the SPXS. And just as protection, except I was, I didn't really, I couldn't really do anything with it. And it worked out fantastically. There was a pull back. But by the time I came back, there was this big reversal and the dawn thing had shrunk. And I don't think I ever did anything with it. I just said, oh, well, that's the way it is. Today it must be worth like 10 cents or something like that. Why? Because look, this, this S&P once upon a time was a wrong one. Let me expand that. Do this one. Look at this. You won't believe it. They call them trading vehicles. They call them trading vehicles for a reason. Now we still have an SDOW three times long from October 2022. And that's still doing really nicely. But that's crazy. I mean, I did it, but it's silly. Look at this. This was once at $150,000, $160,000, actually over $160,000. So years ago in one of our meetings that we had down in Florida, I had someone who traded at Goldman Sachs and he had just left Goldman Sachs. I didn't know all this. I usually don't ask all these questions. Someone else told me about it. And then in the class, this is one of my two days, three day specials where I do two days as the initial championship methodology and the third day is advanced and we actually do live practicing. He said to me, he and his friend at Goldman Sachs had their own portfolios. Everybody's allowed their own portfolios. And then when the bosses saw what they had and they were short, they made a terrible fuss and these guys decided, you know what, we could do better on our own and they just left. And he told me that his friend is short at all. They weren't that many at the time. All the both long and short three times vehicles and all of them were making money. And you can see why. This is at $160,000 and every time they split it, look where we are. We're down to $10.82 and they're going to split it for 10, whatever it is. It's a 10 for one, something like 10 for one. And it's a $10. So it's fun when you're able to do that. We were able to do that with the socks and at some point three times short the SMHs and had some nice gains. But now the socks is down to $449. And you're looking at this, oh, come on, at $449, I could easily short that when you could have said that at $519, you could have said that at $642, and you got a 50% decline. So no, you've got to be really careful. Your timing has to be pretty perfect. All right. So I just want to talk about that because this thing could split at any point. And then you're kind of stuck. You know, you've got something that looks fantastic. You've got, say, maybe you bought a thousand shares at $4, you've spent $4,600, whatever it is. And suddenly it gets split and you look at it and you say, wait, I've got a $40, $140 share or something like that. So it's really tough. All right. With that said, let me just go to this right now. So I was asked about, where did I put it? Oh, did I just mess up? No, I didn't. Okay, there it is. So this is the Investors Business Daily, IBD 50 stock list. This is the GCT it has in video. I wish I looked at this more often. I love the newspaper. I love the serendipity of turning a page and seeing something that you weren't even looking for. I just don't get that here. I don't know what it is. But I'm not very good at this electronic newspaper stuff. I get, I get, but I don't, I don't think I use them as well as I do the actual paper. That's just, you know, older generation tends to do that. So let's just look at this. I don't know if I've notated GCT, but let's just go there. So what's what happened? A wrong one. GCT. Yeah, we got. So GCT is gig, oh, I have got giga cloud. That's not an A. That should be an I. Giga cloud technology. Leg C in the monthly chart had a low of 863 in November of 2022. Had a round number high of 62 back in 2022. This is, I'm calling this a peak B in the weekly chart. The peak deconsolidation. So it's in a consolidation. It has spectacular move. Now it's consolidating. Nvidia is number two. Nvidia. That is spectacular earnings result. And now it's trading at GSTAC. It should maybe make the leg D above yesterday's high. And then I wouldn't be surprised if it has a little digestive. Look at that unbalanced volume in the day chart. But that stochastic is at 95%. At some point in the next six to eight weeks, that stochastic is going to come down. It's going to be under 20%. How do we, if it does that, how do we deal with it? And what do we do? Well, that's going to be the question. Crowd. Oh, I mean, these are spectacular. So is crowd. As we speaking at A, B, C, it's a new leg as C, crowd, strike, holding cybersecurity. 298.28 was a high in November, plunges down to 100. And now it's three times high. It's at 299.89. So it's making a new all-time high as we speak. Is this a G or is it an alternate count G-C? Just for safety's sake, I'm putting G-C on a purely technical basis. Nothing here says this should not be a C. But I like to say this is an instant restart right here. So whenever there's an instant restart, I have to put the double count. And that's just the rule. It just gives you that security. But the nine and the weekly chart is way over the 14. Mac, these good stochastics at 93%. I don't want to go through them all, but you can see what I'm doing here. DKNG is number four on the list. DKNG is drafting, trading at 38.64. I must mention we are in the longest position. I'm going to say B in the daily chart had a round number 40 yesterday. And the weekly chart is in the C and the monthly chart is in a very deep. Back in the public house at 39 is up to 50. In The Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other Tigers and Tigresses as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. 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Actually, a couple of people asked me if I could do a little bit more tomorrow, technical Friday on some of those IBD-50s. So yeah, I'll do that. And so most importantly, what I am looking at here, I said to subscribers, I don't know what it is, I'm just, I'm getting this little nervous feeling. For two days now, I've been wanting to add back to the shorts, especially in the Dow, just to go short the Dow. I've held off. It's such a mixed market. I don't know how it's going to work out because the strength on the stocks that are strong is amazing. But look at this. This is what my daily newsletter. I always have the Dow chart and I give a little synopsis of what I'm looking at here. And then I have my daily, the actual trading position. So that's my trader's corner with all our positions. But all I said was, if the Dow starts to give back gains today and goes from plus to the stocks that go minus, I'd be kind of careful here because not everything is great, but the Dow is only this time. So here's only 30 stocks. Yeah, I think they're holding quite well. But this is kind of a leading indicator. Just say, just on a linear to appear a little portion, say, just