 Welcome everybody to digital asset news or Dan for short. My name is Rob and today we have DCA live and again, I am welcomed and To my good friends here came in to help me out Ben from another cryptoverse and James from best answers gents Thanks for coming by do appreciate it Fantastic so first things first Let's get something out of the way We're going to talk about of course the bear market and macro events and things like that But we have to distinguish what kind of investors are we because we're different and what and I mean varying Differences that we have but what type of investor are you long-term trader combination? And do you find yourself drifting outside of crypto for better returns because let's be honest There's some things out there that look pretty attractive They're going to talk about give us the best the worst case scenario for crypto and traditional markets for the rest of 2023 and then there's also these rumblings about this 10-year bear market I want to go over things that were said by drunken miller and also solidly What next the last GDP is up fed rate hike potentially up to 100 basis points Tell me why or why not and then also let's end with a positive note What are the positives in crypto and is it still an asymmetrical bet in the short term and long term? So first things first I forgot to mention if you haven't subscribed to Ben from the cryptoverse or James There's a link in the description shows you exactly where to find them Also, you can find James on patreon and Ben's got a banger of a website app.indecryptedverse.com links in the description So first things first I'm gonna start with James What type of investor are you James because I'm a kind of a long-term holder guy But I think you might be a little bit different so explain to us How your investment strategies differ? Okay Here's a good question because I think It's appropriate you're asking this question because sometimes people misunderstand, you know, if I buy something I say I buy something but what happens after that is very important So there are many different types of traders But like your derivatives traders your arbitrage traders options traders scalpers date traders directional traders swing traders investors that buy and hold stuff I do it all depending on where we are in the market so Give you an example of directional trading refers to strategies based on the investors view of the future direction of something For example, I believe EVs are going to be important part of the future. So I invest heavily in Tesla. That's kind of my directional Asymmetric bet as it were then my background is kind of derivatives and options trading Which is where you trade assets Which are a function of a price of something else so you can get a much higher return But there's also a lot more risk. I do a lot of options trading extensively In fact, I rarely buy equities outright It's always an options trade same thing for crypto in some cases too then scalping You know scalping is kind of a high frequency version of day trading So you just go in and just grab a couple hundred bucks 500 bucks out of a trade out of Bitcoin There's doing this a lot during the summer with the high volatility And then arbitrage is a huge part of my playbook as well So I arbitrage between co-integrated assets for example It could be a Bitcoin proxy like Bitcoin and micro strategy when one is too hot and sell that by the other etc Day trading I don't do that anymore, but I do sometimes day trade options depending on the volatility. That's out there and Then I have kind of on the investor side of the house I have what I call a hodl bag and a trading bag The hodl bag is stuff that I just sock away and keep that includes stuff like real estate apartment buildings Bitcoin things like Tesla kind of like my safe egg Future keeping and then a big chunk of the portfolio is for trading swinging between assets for example, which would be pair trading another example of trading and That's where I are, but I really find myself drifting towards Returns in wherever things are hot. So for example, I was never a fan of meta But I haven't touched that and traded in five or six years. I have I couldn't pass up the opportunity to grab some yesterday So that's an example of kind of a short-term speculation as well And you don't know what the market is going to give you But the way it works right now I do have this thesis that kind of the leading indicator was Bitcoin and the rest follows now We're seeing the equity market gets smashed and it's generating generational buying opportunities right now as almost as good as the C19 crash we had back in March 2020 Holy smokes. So how do you balance this this wrist that you have because it looks like you've got some long-term You got your hodl bag that you guys you also have some pretty short-term risky your plays. So how do you balance that out? It just depends I have models that have allocations and they're weighted in terms of risk And I focus heavily on like I do a lot of synthetic long sell puts to buy calls and after a spike I sell a call out of the money to take money off the table This I've been doing for decades and that way it's very risky Please do not even try this if you haven't been trading options for five years It's extremely risky if the trade turns against you, but if it doesn't it's also extremely lucrative So I just know my positions know my weightings and I allocate weightings as well. I've got predefined goals of where I want to be and Sometimes those plans go back, you know a year and they don't deviate. So it's very very important as well I think as an investor is to make a plan and stick with it unless the thesis changes So that's like for example the simple example that is I had a lot of ETH I wanted to hedge my ETH with another play that was Solana and my goal since April 2021 was to equate my Solana in the Ethereum bags and I'm almost there But it took a long time to get there So so just a just a paraphrase because this was this is that was the questions that we all had amongst ourselves Which was I hope I wonder if people know that James is not going to hold forever He's not going to diamond hands every single thing to be by so For you that are watching behind the scenes if you're new to James's channel or my channel or Ben's channel Just know that if James talks about something it doesn't mean that you should go do it You should go invest and hold it forever James has been More of a trader and of course he's got different variations of those along the way from short term to long term So just be aware these are things you want to learn more about what James just talking about He's got a patreon. You can check that out and go from there. So that would lead me so James Thanks for answering the question and setting the record straight so we can understand like you know Where things are going that will lead me to Ben. So Ben same kind of question Well, I guess my strategy isn't nearly as complicated I Don't really think I'm that great at at the shorter term plays like like James does and Like I've tried I've tried doing that stuff before but I normally don't really do that. Well when I do it So I'm just sort of more so moved in the direction of longer term longer term trends in the market So for instance like like this year You know just sort of saying cash is king for the entire year even though we've had plenty of of rallies Right, we've had plenty of counter-trend rallies where the market ripped back up the upside and If if you were skilled at timing those types of things then you can make a lot of money Right and these are the types of the types of trades that that James often will you know pursue for me I just you know I just sort of try to figure out what is the overarching trend and try to ride that trend for as long as I can Until I think it's until I I think it's time to go you know go back the other direction so for instance like in the last crypto bull market it was Buying in late 2018 2019 and 2020 and then simply riding it up in you know in late 2020 and early 2021 Taking profits a majority of the profits that I took in crypto this cycle were actually an early 2021 Because that was when I felt like the market was the most Overvalued with respect to you know where the fair value was And then and then you know I was hoping to time the second top as well as the first one But it was not the case and I ended up not realizing it until a couple months or so after it occurred and then you know I mostly exited a lot of my you know a lot of my altcoin positions and and A lot of the crypto a lot of risk assets back in in the first quarter of this year and for me You know I just can't continue to think that Risk assets will remain under pressure for a while, but it can't I mean it can't certainly can be difficult You know seeing counter-trend rallies and bear market rallies But the way that I fight against that is is by still having positions and risk assets like you know I still own Bitcoin. I still you know occasionally pick some up I have limited order set in case we you know in case we fall and this has happened You know it's been going on for the entire year And that that sort of helps helps deal with the emotions whenever it goes back up right like you at least have some Might not be as much as you ultimately want for the next you know sustained bull market But I don't I don't think we're at that phase yet But it does you know just occasionally picking some up and and that's how I do it I mean I I don't even focus on on any other crypto currencies Deering you know during a Bitcoin bear market Typically the time to focus on other crypto currencies is usually like you know the year before the halving right for Bitcoin So like if you think back to 2015 2019 those were all really great accumulation years for the altcoin market And you'll probably see something similar in in 2023 So I just sort of try to figure out what is the most likely trend for a certain period of time try to ride that as long as I possibly can and then and then slowly shift gears and and You know plan for the plan for the reversal Makes sense. So then so I mean before we go on I'm gonna ask you guys again real quick So what do you so right now? What are you doing as far as like with in the crypto market? Are we holding are we just sitting on cash? Are we doing anything with equities and traditional markets then I'm gonna start with you and then I'll go to James Yeah, so I've I mean I've I've said the entire year like I you know cash is king this year I don't think it's gonna be king forever. I'll be clear Yeah, I think it's good to have some positions in crypto and equities I mean certainly certainly some equities are more undervalued than other ones, right? I mean like even if even if the old even if the entire market eventually has to go lower It doesn't mean that every equities gonna go lower. They they all hit bottoms at various times So I think the the way that I'm playing it is just you know, I'm I I have a fairly healthy cash position and I'm I'm still trying to grow it because I think next year is gonna be a good year to To get more into the market I am exposed to risk assets like crypto and equities But not not nearly as much as I was back in you know like 2019 2020 and 2021 I don't anticipate getting the same type of exposure that I had back then Probably not until next year right and then hopefully hopefully we'll just repeat the cycle and have another bull market and crypto Right and you know like maybe late 2023 2024 2025 something something like that So that's more or less what I'm doing right not really buying any altcoins this year More so just focusing on on trying to get Bitcoin, you know DC and get occasionally. I do have limit order set still And yeah, that's my strategy. Nice sense. So you're waiting. So it's not like you're I mean it's more like waiting It's about it's about just sitting on stay on your hands doing nothing Which is the hardest thing to do. I mean especially for us. So I get it So then James with the same thing right now How you playing this because you again are more you have your short-term bag. You're more riskier So how are you playing this in the crypto market and then of course in equities? I think you're more dabbling more in equities right now Yeah, so I said this I think a couple of times on DCA that I basically bought all of my crypto positions during the summer Doldrums, so getting in at the bottom and Getting all I wanted and then I've just been sitting on a little bit of cash and Getting into equity positions lately. I haven't bought or sold any crypto and I don't know I can't remember in a while, but I kind of have what I wanted and now I can find I can make Kind of much higher returns kind of on riskier options plays on equities And especially trading the ARB out of certain equities and Bitcoin proxies I like very well, so I like to balance between kind of the equity side of the house stock market and what's going on in the crypto world in addition to that I do swap between Ethereum and Solana when the time is right when one is overheated right now We have for example month to date. I think Ethereum's up 18% Solana's flat So it'll come a time when okay, Ethereum's gonna run on a steam Then I swap into Solana and that'll run and that's just what they've been doing for a year and a half now He's got a time at right Yeah, well that I mean that that almost sounds I mean I mean Ben said it you said it's the same thing Stick into him until they run a steam and then how'd you go? Okay, and then for me I think we've said this pretty much the whole time on the DCA show So Ben's not buying much of any crypto right now. It's kind of when he's sitting on cash James more into the trader side He's gonna put more short-term types of things and getting away from crypto for a bit and then me myself and I I'm getting I'm sitting on cash, but I'm also DCing like I've talked about before Rob the only I am I am still getting Bitcoin. That's that just okay So well that makes sense so like like for me like Ben and me I Always listened to I mean these two guys But when I was here Ben say take a cold shower when I'm buying my alts Which goes off without a hitch every single day as I'm buying alts Off a coin base because I'm not DCing like I used to heavy amounts It's just kind of getting into it a little bit and just when we had that rally So what I do is let's be honest all of us. We're not diamond hands people We're going to sell at some point. I am not a diamond hands person So when we had a rally our last two days, I tweeted out take some profits Nobody ever went broke taking profits, especially if you are hard up for cash I did that myself and it worked out pretty well. So as time goes on I'm gonna keep DCing I buy a little bit here just take the time and then as time goes on I get into and sell the crypto and of course for us It's more of the more of the real estate right now back in Puerto Rico. So Getting back into the long-term short-term rentals actually more actually more long-term rentals So that takes care of the very first question. Hopefully this one is a little bit quicker. So the next one The scenarios these days. I mean, can it get any more negative out there? I don't know what the fear and great index I'm gonna say probably Maybe inching up after this little rally, but it's probably still around the 24 25 26 area. I'm guessing But give us the best and worst-case scenario for crypto Even if you want to throw in their traditional markets because I think they're a little bit correlated although Bitcoin and crypto has been less volatile than traditional equities, which is actually good to see So give us your best and worst-case scenario Then I'm gonna start with you because if you've been did this video The United States heading into a recession and it goes over a lot of different data points and James also did Something similar on his channel So then when you talked about these things, I mean you went over I mean the effective federal funds rates inflation year over year the unemployment rate the treasure yield curve which scares the hell out of me and then the treasure yield spreads and then also you took a look at there was a video This part here where you took a look at the inflation rate as it rises above or the yield of the rates as they rise above the inflation rates That scared me. So real quick That's not the worst case, but tell us both the best and worst case. I should say yeah, that's a good question So I think the best case I'll start with the best case, right? Thank you for the optimist if you I guess the best case would be we just I Crypto as a whole goes sideways for a year and then starts going back up I think that would be like the best case scenario and when I say sideways I don't mean like it's not gonna you know It's not gonna bounce occasionally like like I guess best case would be Bitcoin bounces back up for a while Maybe it goes back to 25 K and then you know comes back down to 20 K And we just sort of do that until late 2023 and then we start trending back up into the next you know Bitcoin having and Bringing that video that I showed into the mix like how could how could we possibly have a best case scenario Where everything looks so negative? I suppose the only way that that could happen is if inflation somehow comes down quickly and You know like the economy You know despite everyone's expectations, right? Like the economy remains relatively strong and the unemployment rate never goes back up and And there's just a lot of false signals on these indicators, right? And nothing actually manifests itself Another way that it can manifest is that if if the Fed just decides a year from now if inflation is still sticky Maybe they just decide we're gonna live with it rather than rather than fight it anymore And they print another five trillion dollars or something right like like these are our scenarios where I You know, I could imagine the best case scenario would just be that it goes sideways for a while Like it like it normally does and I you know at the year after a bear market if you think back to like 2015 2019 I mean 2019 was a little bit more volatile than the 2015 But for the most part, you know if you could look at where it was at the beginning of the year And then the end of the year it was mostly just sideways for for both of those years Um, so I guess that would be the best case scenario. We just sort of go sideways for about a year You know within some range and then we slowly go back up into the next having out in 2024 and then I mean the the worst case scenario is that You know, like we like is is the idea that Bitcoin and crypto as a whole has never actually Experienced a full-fledged recession. I mean again It was born out of the financial crisis in 2008 2009 And we only very briefly got a glimpse of what crypto does during a recession during March of 2020 And it wasn't the best thing, right? I mean the only reason we came out of it so quickly is because the Fed printed trillions of dollars So I think the worst case scenario is that, you know, we still have more pain ahead But it's funny because you know, we could have more pain ahead And it wouldn't really even be that dissimilar from from what we've seen in prior bear markets in terms of like You know percentage drawdown from the all-time high and the length of the bear market normally lasting about a year if you think back to like the 2013 bull market we had a bear market that started in November of 2013 and it lasted in full January of 2015 and that was also a double peak cycle if the second peak was a lot higher than the first peak unlike this one So yeah, I mean I think the worst case scenario is we you know we have to go put in yet another low or low and and then we Then maybe we trend sideways for a while right until we until we get the next on you know the next period of expansion, but I Think it's I think it would make sense for investors Not to blindly think that either of these scenarios have to happen, but to be prepared for you know for for either one I mean for me just to provide some perspective I mean I have some crypto right now like I'm mostly Bitcoin if a year from now You know that the crypto market is still You know just sort of in this range right then you could I could easily see myself getting into the altcoin market Even less than a year right not even waiting that long Because I think they would you know go into another period of expansion during the next bull market if on the other hand We you know we see some type of capitulation or something in the next few months more in line with a Typical scenario or the worst-case scenario or something then I could see myself getting more aggressive in the Altcoin market sooner rather than rather than later, so that's more or less where I stand I mean again to sort of summarize worse our best-case scenario is I think we would just kind of go sideways for the next year You know within some range worst-case scenario We have more lows ahead of us and and that we really see how crypto performs in a in a full-fledged recession That well we never we never gone through it So this will be interesting to see how we how we do and I will just say this before I get to James is that I mean The best-case scenario is we chop sideways for a year I mean for for me as just all across averaging That's like a godsend and I got to say I hope that actually happens, but who knows it's a little bit shaky out there So that's why lean on James to help me out. So James Best-in-worst-case scenario. What do you got buddy? Well first of all We did speak about October and so far Bitcoin is up 8% so far ETH is up 18% as I mentioned so long as flat. I think Cardano's down for the month so far and other names They're all over the place. It's all mixed, but I do believe that It's as if bitcoins can sniff out markets. It can sniff out inflation They can sniff out a whole bunch of stuff and I believe it's the first mover and other markets follow So Bitcoin bottom first June 16th or whenever was during the summer pretty clear. There was a bottom Now we are 90% sure when you look at all the people who were ultra bearish out there all of a sudden this week They're flipping to being okay, and no more dreams of 12k. You know more dreams of 10k no more dreams of three and a half thousand dollar Bitcoin It's going to 25,000 straight away. So it's just funny to see the the narrative change Also looking at some of the on-chain stuff. There's been a huge spike in greater than 10,000 Bitcoin holders Which is positive to see speaking on the other side of the fence S&P S&P 500 is up 11% off the bottom and these go Yeah, and it's down 14% over the last 12 months Which is fascinating number because that 14% is the average amount of money printing that happens for fiat every year And it's also the average stock market return. It's also what your currency debases that It's all everything hovers around that 14% very important number So the fact that the stock market of the last 12 months is down 14% Gives me the hope that it's going to go up I know hope is not a strategy, but historically is a lot of money in these guidelines It has to be activated and put in there. So the question is I think what can we hope for if we look at? say the markets so You mentioned something like Drucken-Miller and then Soloway's Market markets are going to be flat for the next 10 years Technically that's possible, but let me explain why it's not going to happen First of all, we've seen the the dead decade out of Japan the Nikkei, which is not 30 years But that's due to chronic issues like no raw materials bad monetary policy a huge bubble, etc That's a separate kettle of fish. I don't point to that as an analogue The other thing is yes, you could argue that 40 to 60% of the companies than the SB 500 zombies But they will be replaced the average lifespan of a company in the SB 500 but 15 years not 14 Unfortunately, but the reason I believe the stock market will continue to go up is Because inflation goes up, you know the government talks about 2% inflation The truth is inflation is never below 5% of the last 30 years It's between 5 and 12% per year and as an investor your asset prices get to ride upward with inflation We'll talk more about GDP later and how inflation is impacting GDP to give people this weird number that came out as well Then you've got the QE to infinity money printing has to happen forever US government has 170 trillion unfunded liabilities. It's just stupid to think they can't not print forever They will that's the whole QE to infinity thing also companies grow And especially inflationary environment. They're selling more at higher prices. Therefore more profit therefore QED Prices go up technologies also making things more efficient more effective to deliver Which ultimately could drive deflation But in the meantime, it'll drive the stock market up And then the Darwinism aspect of the s&p 500 I think if you go back to the year 2000 the top five companies in the s&p 500 Let me guess GE Exxon, Pfizer, Citigroup, Cisco Today they're Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla It all changes out. It's radical. You know, where are those companies now? So anyway, not that they've gone away, but they definitely shrunk a lot compared to the disruptive technology Which is what I invest exclusively in as well So that's that's kind of where I think I think we're going up I think minimum we'll see 4100 on the s&p 500. We've seen it shoot up 11% in 10 days We know this thing can move. It's up what two points Let me pull out the shorts s&p today 2.1% 82 points 4100 is a two-in-a-day moving average and I think we'll definitely get above that Before the end of the year Got it well said, you know and then going back to what you talked about is those those zombie companies they get eliminated So just like we had talked about this before and you talked about this a lot And you're talking about the cash flow has to go somewhere the money has to flow into something So as those companies they die, which they should have died already But thank god for quantitative easing and things like that. They're able to stay afloat Once they figured out those aren't going to work. It has to go into somewhere I think that is also the same thing that It got me got me interested in in what drunken Miller was talking about and also what solidly talks about and I know people say Ah, you know these guys, what do they know? But I mean I mean trucking Miller has been around for a while I know there's a couple of things or thing or two and then solidly was right about Bitcoin price even though he can't be right forever But the thing that they they talk about it is this is this 10-year time frame And I don't know if if we're right James is right where things are going to go up or ben's right where it's going to go totally down But if we meet in the middle and we go sideways, I'm okay with that But one thing I will make mention is of this The things that drunken Miller was talking about he's talks about this this forgotten era this the 60s to late 70s When the smp just just uh was just a downward decline. You can see it right here. However We peaked up here. It took a long time for it to hit. It's all times high again, but even though It took a long time. There's still a bull market in a little bit of a piece So even though we're here and we come down to the six the five hundred six five fifty six There's still about a year or so where it went up and then of course it crashed again But it went up again And I guess that's the bigger thing about what we talk about Which is taking those profits investing and running into those things that actually until they run a steam then get out of them I think even if we have Even if it's the worst case scenario that I can think of and james kind of dispel it with the with japan, but To go with that route for that long. There's still going to be many bull runs there So there's still money and that's it exactly that's why you know Choppiness is where a lot of action is made is one other thing too It's kind of something I've been thinking about a lot is if the u.s. Dollar loses dollar hegemony Petra dollar goes away Stocks go up because the dollar debases at a faster rate. So that's another another angle there to think about so That's a good, how's the dixie doing today? Um It's up a quarter percent today. Yeah, it's 110 110 110.8 Hey speaking percentages. Let's talk about this. So the ggp went up Not what uh, I I don't think that was what everybody was expecting And uh, we would like to see the fed would like to see economic slowdown, correct And that would be good for them that maybe they could pivot some year before they start quantitative easing again So the question is this ggp is up. Will we see a fed rate hike of 75 or 100 basis points? Then I'll start with you I think it's going to be 75 basis points. I don't think they're going to go with 100. Um, I do think that you know, a lot of investors are prematurely calling for a fed pivot and uh, all things considered according to according to crypto twitter or fintech I mean, we've we've had four pivots this year if you if you listen to To what people say on twitter, but I mean the truth is is we've had You know 375 basis point rate hike so far again It was only a few months ago when a lot of people said there was no way We were going to go above You know certain certain levels and here we are knocking on the door of another 75 basis point rate hike Which I think is what they are going to do. I don't think it's going to be 100 There's not even really a if you look at at markets They're sort of pricing in I think like an 80 to 85 percent chance It'll be 75 basis points and then maybe like a 15 percent chance It'll be actually 50 basis points So I'd argue the the discussion is probably more so between if it's going to be 50 or 75 Not if it's going to be 75 or 100 at this point um I think what's more important is what what terminology or what what type of tone Just powell give in the in his talk. I'm not I mean because I do think it's going to be 75 and and After after they you know after they they come out and say it's going to be 75 base point rate hike Which again, I think is the most likely scenario A lot of people are going to be curious. Well, what comes next right? What's going to happen in december? Is it going to be a 50 basis point rate hike in december? Is it going to be another 75 basis point rate hike in december? um And if it if they give any type of inclination that it could be a lower rate hike At the next meeting then you could see I think you could easily see the s&p You know continue to to move higher up to maybe it's 200 day sma However, no matter what happens at the meeting Um, I mean again, I think the implications of the meeting will will affect short-term price action, right? Like so again, if they're dovish you can you can see it go higher if they're if they come out and and if pal gives the same Speech he gave at jackson holp gives the same speech he gave uh in september Which also occurred during you know like bare like bare market rallies, right? Like he can knock the market right back down He's done it multiple times in the past by giving these very hawkish speeches and he could he reserves the right to do it again But I do think no matter what they do no matter what they do um Whether whether we continue the rally or not. I still think there will be pain and risk assets in 2023 Mainly because we haven't actually felt the full effects of of a of a theoretical recession Okay, because we did have two consecutive quarters of negative gdp But if you only go by that definition You would have to now say we're no longer in a recession because as you said right we just had a positive quarter I don't think two consecutive quarters of negative gdp is sufficient to declare a recession I think you have to look at a number of factors including the inversion of the three month and the 10 year yield Which we finally just got and if you look at that Once that once that inverts which just occurred over the last week or so You normally see a recession occur about within about a year Okay, it could come a little bit earlier than that could come a little bit later than that But that's normally when the s and p bottoms is sometime during that During that recession. So, you know, my opinion is that no matter what they do at the next meeting whether it's 75 basis points or 50 That there will be some of course effects in the short term I still think medium term time frame like over the next six to 12 months You still likely will have some pain in the stock market Uh, we I think well for sure See see, uh, you know at least retesting the lows if not going if not going lower Sometime in 2023 and again if you if you were to show I don't know if you have the chart pulled up But I I showed a chart on that video where we look at all the prior bear markets During periods where you know when we had high inflation and whatnot and and a lot of the bear markets last a couple years Right, like they don't just last one year and that's it a lot of times They can last two years so to go back to what you said earlier, you know people calling for a 10 year bear market I don't think I don't think asset prices are going to go down for 10 years straight I could see I could see equities going down for a couple years And then and then slowly going higher from there I also think it's kind of irrelevant for an investor to measure everything from like a irrational all-time high What's more important is just like, you know DCing into the market when When when it seems like a relatively attractive time to to move in and then, you know By the time you're at the all-time high again, you're potentially up like, you know 50% or 2x depending on how bad it gets it doesn't really matter what that all-time high was It's all relative to you know, ultimately to where you get into the market So yeah, probably going to be 75 basis points their terminology will affect short-term price action No matter what they say, I still think we're going to have some pain in 2023 and in equities Gotcha makes sense But you know what? I mean just what you said this would this would really play into james is james's play Which is you know, he likes volatility. So james is actually a good thing That we're going to see this. I mean because it always is like people expect it and that happens in the market reacts And then I I see people say that's irrelevant and it is irrelevant But then it bounces right back But isn't that good for someone like yourself wants a trade and make some swing trades Yeah, in fact, one of the things that's very disappointing is the flat lack of volatility in bitcoin because There's a lot of fun But uh, first of all your first question regarding the gvp Yes, yes, it was a surprise. But once again It shows you how flawed the metrics are Uh, and you heard me rant about employment numbers. I think last time we were on together and how badly they're measured But when we analyze macro, we look at the look at all the stuff we looked at here Real estate shipping volume shipping rates consumer confidence on and on on go out to a restaurant around I Drove by one yesterday. It's normally packed dead Nobody in there at all Look at real estate Four months ago near me a house sold within four days Today 30 days zero bids. Nothing is selling Look at amazon warning amazon is where people shop They are terrified and they've been jeff bezels has been talking about this has been screaming for months about it Say now everybody We're in a recession here elon musk the two best capital allocators on earth have been banging the alarm bells So the reason for the rise in gdp don't get too excited Uh, obviously third quarter. I think it it reflected a net increase in exports Which matched expectations that trade deficit had narrowed nobody's excited about that too As a result of a steep drop in imports again everything is running to a halt And that was that's also going to be seen by the bloated inventory levels of many retailers Now the gdp numbers are beating consensus by that whopping 0.3 percent because GDP gains come because of inflation technically you could assume okay GBG growth 2.6 percent minus Inflation 8 percent equals minus 5.4 percent. It's very crude But it actually works and this is my frustration. You've got All these you know fed people etc. They're riding a motorbike at 200 kilometers an hour With their head turned around looking backwards And it's terrifying now on the good news regarding kind of pivot news I always said that uh, who works for who I think the fed works for larry fink They had a black rock and black rock leaked to their private investors saying the next fed meeting will include pivot language Probably the 775 basis points But that's that's what they're saying the fed have clearly destroyed demand And that net there will be that there's zero chance of that hundred basis points you mentioned It's probably going to be 75 but the probability of a 50 basis point high class two equals 6 Yesterday it was 13 and a half percent today. It's 15 percent. So it's creeping up I say I still think it's going to be 75 basis points and then Again, as I say as well, it takes six months to see the damage of this hike and the other hike before it So they've already smashed everything asunder and this is where we are and that's why larry fink is on the phone jp say Dude, come on now So we'll find out if that's true next week Come on you're killing us. I think I think all those things uh, Potentially true but the one thing that worries me is that I see there was a report by bloomer We talked about this last week about the savings, uh, just american households and the savings went from I mean billions Or I mean an astronomical amount because of all all the stimulus checks and now it's like 10 of what it used to be So I think people are still spending But they're grinding it down towards their savings isn't there and then when that stops Everything stops check out credit card debt. That is an absolutely terrifying story I had two credit card statements. I looked at them side by side two of them I have no balances on I don't use one said 29.99 percent the other one said 34.99 percent No kidding imagine and these are these are one of them is bank of america and the other one is some store credit card But just imagine if you're holding a balance at 35 percent and I know there are people out there that are stuck And they're still spending they're putting it on the credit card And once the unemployment numbers hit wow, that's when the real Or the real concern will be out there for everybody. So be careful Don't hold those credit watch watch those interest numbers on your credit card statements That shocked me That's a good point and then the but the question I have you just brought up unemployment And then we we all talked about this but then brought it up to light in that last video where I mean the unemployment rates Hasn't gone hasn't gone through the roof. I mean we still I think we've actually gone down Well, I'm gonna say we're at 3.2. So, I mean, what's it gonna take three? 3.5. Thank you. I mean what's it gonna take for I mean there's there is This was three weeks ago. I don't know what it's the same But where is 10.2 million job openings and 5.8 million Workers, so what are you gonna do and how do you how do you raise GDP? I think it goes back to james's point these zombie companies They need to go away because they can go away then that frees up a lot of capital which is the labor force But man, we'll see how it goes All right, let's let's get into this last one We talked a lot about the negatives. I know it sucks to hear it, but it is reality I hate to say that but there are positives out there. So the question that I have is this What are the positives and crypto? Is it still an asymmetrical bet in the short term or long term and then everybody right now if you could do me a favor If you have questions for me james or ben start to write those in the chat so I can pull those up as we get done So Then I'm gonna start with you. What's the positives and crypto if anything that she can find? Yeah, I mean, I think long term is still a fairly good play um I mean it sucks in a bear market, you know because it always seems like it'll never go up and all the rallies are Are sold off and you kind of become numb to the uh to the price action probably the people that joined in 2021 now Fully understand why you know Why people become so numb to price action? Uh after after being encrypted for a few years, but yeah, I do think it's still a relatively good long-term play But it it actually it's a little bit more nuanced than that you you have to make sure you're you're picking Good projects, right? You don't want to be the person that was relatively early to crypto But you didn't make anything because you threw it all into some like random Coin that was shilled on reddit that really didn't have any great fundamentals So I that's why I always say like if you're new to crypto You you start with bitcoin and ethereum right you start there And and then you can expand to you know to other crypto currencies But in my opinion at least you you should start with those two blue chips Right, I think those are the blue chips of crypto I think you start with those as long as you have a position in those I think that you know if crypto were to go back up, which I do think it will Those two will almost assuredly be part of that of that bull run Whereas, you know, if you were to go pick out random five coins out of the top 1000 There's a good chance those five coins will not Join in on a on a future bull run So I think the the long-term asymmetrical bet still stands as long as you're Putting your money into into into projects that are likely going to send the test of time and and actually have relatively good utility One thing to consider is that Considering that cash the access to cheap capital is is no longer there anymore, right the Fed is raising rates It's becoming more and more difficult for for people I think we are probably going to slowly transition from projects pumping based on pure speculation to actually needing some level of utility Okay, because the market as as as you guys just pointed out both you and you know, james and rump as you guys both just pointed out I mean If the the zombie companies have to die, but that's not only in in equities, right? that's also in in in crypto as well And once those zombie companies are gone the ones that really don't provide any value It can it can leave more room for these other ones to expand. So I do think the long-term Bet is still there. I think for the for the awkwing market The long-term play is most likely going to occur in 2023. That's not to say you're not going to find any good deals in 2022 There's always a few awkwings that bottom You know sooner earlier than others But yeah, I think the long-term play is still there and and I think a lot of people I mean, I honestly think you have Until 2024 to really figure out what you want in your portfolio because until then we're still going to be I mean, even if we get pumps and whatnot. We're still facing macro headwinds for a while By the time we get out to 2024 Perhaps inflation will come back down Qt is You know potentially over maybe we'll be going back to qe and and then we can we can expand again So I I think the bet's still there just going to take some time to pan out solid solid play All right, so james would be the the same thing But then before we talk about that when we were talking about the the l1 chain video that you did I was talking about I think I was talking about this one So it's like just what ben talked about find the good projects that are out there James did a couple of different ones about the top l1 chains. I don't know if this is the most recent This was streamed a month ago and five months ago. Did you do another one that I watched? Yeah, it depends on when the data changes or shifts dramatically But yeah, the most recent one was really focusing on the Nakamoto coefficient as a measure of decentralization It's probably it feels like two or three weeks ago. I did it Yeah, because that's the one I was talking about so I'll find it and link in the description But it was a great one is to talk about what's decentralized and what has a better Better chances of moving forward, but yeah bitcoin if they're in the blue chips james, what do you got as far as the positivity? Yeah, and to echo what ben said and thank you rob as well for mentioning that video You know we talk about zombie companies. I say 40 to 60 percent of the smb 500 will not be around in 10 years Or if they will they'll be they will not be in the smb 500. That's for certain and then Crypto it's more like 98 percent So just on a relative scale so be very careful out there and people are still throwing money into things that are clearly Not going to make it. So that's the sad thing now back to your question the positives that take out of crypto Like bitcoin for me was a fascination in 2017 because of its finite supply And I was always well aware of money printing etc. I said this thing is so hard There's so little of it and if this crypto stuff takes off wow Everybody needs to have a little piece of this insurance and that was Nearly six years ago. It's kind of crazy to think five years ago But the gambit here is a function of two things one adoption and second regulation or the other way around I don't know if it's chicken or egg whichever comes first. We're getting closer seeing some big advances I think we might get some new people elected into the u.s. Office that might be able to push some new regs through in 2023 That could be a game changer Again I mentioned as well earlier. I think a huge spike in the 10 000 plus bitcoin wallets So big money knows something is up and that's been extremely positive over the last three or four months There is one of the other things that i'm fascinated is not just bitcoin because of its hardness and its store value narrative But we have this Advertising organization now marketing bitcoin for us called the wef And every time every time they come up and start talking cv dcs I mean you don't even have to mention bitcoin. I mean people should just get the message This is just terrifying what they have planned and they say it openly I tweeted something the other day with our friend class enough class with the other guy From south america. We listen to his words That would that would give anybody nightmares for the next 12 months So we have that cbdc hedge narrative, which is huge second thing i'm fascinated about is You know, I always want to play where the puck is going to be kind of like the directional trade of tesla and evs Same thing as for trad fi disruption traditional finance. I had an issue this week People had to actually mail me a physical check because we could because it was above $3,000 amount and it couldn't be done using any of the other combination of methods to move money and it's infuriating that the On ramps the on rails the trad fi rails cap amounts that you can't you can't even use You know, and no matter what you try and it was just so frustrating if they had a crypto wall I could just go boop Done in a second. So that's why I believe heavily in layer ones I think they are going to revolutionize the trad fi world, which is a criminal enterprise You know charging 30% on a credit card and giving you 0.01% on your cash and your account on the bank is just You know people have to wake up to that and the final positive takeaway. I think is Again people are stacking The dispersion of bitcoin is getting better. It's up so far in october, which is good I do expect us to have a strong run into the end of the year as we go forward So hang tight everybody. Um, and I do expect as well It's already going to kick in because when you have the ultra bears pivoting To being ultra bullish, that's going to create this huge fomo wave coming in. So Well, that's well, that's I mean man, I gotta tell you, I hope you're right. I'm on that one But I mean, it's it's the same thing like like we see everybody just just going one direction That's why how many uh, 1.5 billion in dollars in shorts We're just liquidated a couple days ago because everybody's like it's going out. It's going out And that's why I don't play that game that sounds like the most dangerous game You can possibly play and then speaking of like checks I had to write a check a week ago for you know that charity event that we do for the all passive boys and girls come And like, how can I pay you guys and like, oh, you know a check? I'm like, guess anything else like no check I messed up the check because I hadn't written one so long. I'm like, I sorry I totally messed it up. So uh last thing I know I will I want to bring up is that it's a good thing that we have the internet these days to talk about cbdcs because In all honesty, I mean if we didn't have people talking about it, everybody would just accept it I'm like, oh, this is just a thing. Oh, you just turn me off. Well, that sucks Well, what would I have to complain to the government? Well, who's going to air that so cbdcs? I think I need to cover more that is for sure And then the last thing is I forget to say this is You know James, were you talking about all the capital trying to find its home? If you were an investor, I don't know black rock a mass a mass mutual ny dig and you're like, well If there is a 10 year downturn like what drunken Miller is talking about do I want to put my money here? There's not much of an upside or maybe just maybe I want to do like two three five percent I'll just say two percent Of assets under management and get into crypto because right now it's under a trillion dollars I mean to me when I look at this and I'm like, do you want to go through 10 years of that if you're traditional Player or do you want to say maybe we should allocate? Maybe that's why we hear some good news. Anyhow just the clock random thoughts All right, everybody. So now we'll get into q&a I want to thank everybody for doing exactly what I asked them to do which was ask the questions So we can get this thing rolling because we're coming up by not 49 minutes. So let's start here First of all, this is the comment. That's true. There are many help wanted signs everywhere There's so many people out of the labor market. There's a place here in Puerto Rico called bottles They shut down Sundays and Mondays because they said we would like to be open We don't have any staff. Sorry and that there it goes Here's the next question question for you all if bitcoin goes to 3k next year Man, I hope so Would that mean that something in crypto is broken and the big ones micro strategy? Well, michael sailor did they make the wrong choice? What would make you what would make you sell almost all bitcoin and move on? That's a pretty good question Who wants to take this one? James go right for it. Yeah, I always said so my cost basis for bitcoin has always run that 9k if it falls below 9k I'm out done Bye-bye It could it could wick down there on a black swan event very possible and I take that into account at the time But if it does if it starts to lose its momentum, especially with the big players If I start to see one of the things I like to look at is what the big money is doing and where they're moving their pieces Around the board. Are they accumulating or are they dumping on retail? If I see the dumping on retail, I'm out So yeah makes sense then. What do you got? No, I mean I I don't think I don't think There's much that could happen that would make me sell my bitcoin. I mean, I've I've weathered the storm multiple bear markets in the past and and um, you know bitcoin is always proven its resilience in in future bull markets If I mean, I I don't think it's going to go to 3k. Let me be clear But that's not the question right the question is if it goes to 3k not not whether I think it will If it were to go to 3k No, I mean, I wouldn't sell I would I would I would probably then use all that cash. I've been stacking and yolo in honestly Because I I I don't think my you know my long-term conviction and it isn't going to change I mean, it's a product of monetary policy at the time to some degree So I mean if if if the fed wants to keep, you know Keep monetary policy restrictive for longer than normal and then we see some type of crazy black swan event That can no one can really predict Um, it's not gonna it's not going to change my opinion on bitcoin I mean, I I think bitcoin is is going to be a big part of the future It just it just sucks going through the bear market. So I won't change my mind on it Exactly and just to clarify so I don't alarm the audience as well. There's not a snowball chance in hell But going to 3k Not with the adoption that we have And something else is happening. I was just talking about if You know theoretical I'm I'm on ben's page hardcore But everybody should also reanalyze their thesis and maybe there's faster horses out there as I always say too See that and that's just it. I'm gonna go between between both you I'm gonna say that I would sell what it would have to be a specific event Let's just say for example that there's a double spend event and for some reason it just happens The code is broken or something. Let's say for god. Oh god bit us Craig right comes back and said, yeah that that bomb that I put in in bitcoin it it caused it to just melt down or something Just ridiculously crazy if it starts to fall like that and it goes below I'm like, well, he doesn't work as much as it is said, but beyond something crazy like that I would probably just keep buying and then we talk about dynamic dcaing. So that was what it would be and the next one Question for James With concern on the impact of the economy of aging population, which is true We've we've we have a baby boomer population that is aging rapidly getting out of the workforce Which means even less the labor force itself. What the tesla robots helps all that I don't know what these I've heard. There's some tesla robots. They're supposed to be rolled out. I have no idea Yeah, we're gonna be a while away from having bots doing things But the robots are already doing a lot of things if you look at a fly-through of a tesla factory And look at how cars are painted How bodies are made and welded together. It's all robots. So that age is already here I am very very concerned about the negative birth rate in different parts of the world You can point to so many different analogs and you know already that place like china or in severe severe troubles they have Too many old people that are not being supported by enough young people And the old people are living forever, you know 100 110 is not uncommon over there and the birth rate is just too negative. So Can robots help solve that? I think if we do get to a stage of You know delivering robots it will cause a huge increase in productivity of the human race Which means we'd be in a position to be more have a more abundant life. That's the positive But the question is Where would that abundance go and it normally goes to the top 0.1 percent, which is you know, it doesn't trickle down as perfectly so No, I don't know It's a tricky question But we need Young people lots of them lots of young workers to support aging populations like myself Like all like of all most of us have been Yeah, but I mean look if you go down that route You have to look at ubi universal basic income because how are you going to do anything? How are you going to get above that? It's just uh, almost impossible So Uba already exists. It's already there in many different covered forms So yeah, it's true. It's also in california. I think they're they're they're testing it out. Matter of fact All right, then so what else we got here? Oh this one it's it's a comment, but it's a question I think you may be putting too much faith in the fed in their words. They lie like all politicians I mean, let's be honest. I mean the fed is like I say as federal is federal express. However, who appoints the chair Well, it is congress is the president of congress. So they are beholden Follow the data. They don't care about entrenched inflation. They created it. Here's my question for you guys Do you think there's some type of political slant? That's uh, what drone powell's doing? And uh, then let me start Which is dark, um, that's a loaded question. I um, that's why I love this show First of all I mean to be completely clear the fed the entire year Has said they're going to raise rates and a lot of investors just refuse to believe them And by the end of the year a lot of people are just getting mad at the fed for for doing what they said They were going to do now. They have gotten things wrong. I mean they said inflation was transitory, right? Which is clearly not the case right who knew you couldn't print a few trillion dollars and and um, that wouldn't happen but Look, I mean I I think they are they're doing what they said they're going to do this year And powell has been actually think about every time we've debated between whether it was going to be like, you know 75 or 100 basis points or whatever and it was just always more or less what he implied it would be You know, like it and with the market thought it was really never that big of a surprise one way or another Um, so I I think they are trying to be extremely clear one of the reasons for that is because of what happened, you know With a taper tantrum in in 2013 Uh, I do think they are trying to be clear Is there is there, you know, could there be some political motivation going into into midterms? Maybe I don't know. I mean I I still think they're gonna they're gonna raise 75 basis points, you know regardless um I think that the other the other side of the of the Of it is is if um If the you know, if the democrats already I mean, obviously high inflation is not good, right? So this is not this is not going to help with reelections and stuff or reelection campaigns That's that type of stuff. So if they want to have a a good chance in 2024 then they need to get inflation back down before then so You could argue that they they're just sort of accepting it right now and and maybe by 2024 They hope that that the pain is over and and the market will will look good again Again, I I can't really comment on exactly what their political motivations are. I mean, I think everyone is going to have some type of motivation Um, but I mean it for for me to for me to speculate on that would just be I mean It would just be pure speculation and honestly, I have no idea Do be a speculation. All right So next one. So james, what do you got you think? Political motivation here or is just or is it just Jerome being Jerome doing his job and like hey I don't want to bring this down into a massive depression I've been thinking a lot about this as well. Does he want to Smash the economy so the democrats get booted out of office on november 8th Because he does have g.o.p. DNA from the past Interesting angle because I you know, I think he's A decent fair amount. I just think he reads the wrong data, which is a problem Like all politicians follow the data. I think that doesn't mean that they follow the data, but Follow the data of what the statement here is um, so yeah, I think there is a small chance, but I think I think he's just following the data. He's trying to get inflation under control But he's gone way too far economy is going to be smashed 2023 is going to be a mess But there will be bright spots and I think I'm very you know with all that's going on The world of strength of bitcoin is a really positive sign All around the world. I think the dollar will weaken as we go forward Dixie will come down bitcoin will go up. I think money printing will continue into 2023 a lot of good stuff It's not the end of the world. Any concern is tactical nukes. That's what I'm more worried about than elections Let's not talk about that james. All right, so so last two questions. First of all, this one's for james What platform to use the short crypto If you're shorting a crypto if you do Yeah, I use a couple of different plays Um, I don't want to say the name of the platforms because I don't even seen as promoting them but think of the two top Derivative platforms that you use out there and I use one using a vpn as a little trick Yeah, gosh That sounds good. And then this one's for me the world mobile token balloon launch Yeah, I'm waiting for that era staff to launch and then they can Increase their the amount of population that they give for telecommunications in Africa I'm totally behind that project makes sense And somebody says pay off your credit card every month That's right because you want to pay too much in interest and then the last thing well two last things The fact that only 1.7 k viewers in the show how many people have left the markets A lot of people have left only the ones that are here that really understand the market themselves and can actually stomach it Those are the ones that are going to be rewarded later. It's just going to take a little bit of time Like we all talked about I have no problems with that The last one I will say this is the question There's this aura about sam bakeman freed and the things that are going around about the negativity and he was on bankless today I'm definitely going to take a look at that has there been any concrete evidence that either of you know About sam bakeman freed and anything that's going on with the shenanigans behind the scenes And elite and any kind of like illegal activity. I have looked far and wide. I haven't seen too much or I haven't seen anything I've looked at the bill that he's trying to pass. Yes. He talked about decentralization and the the defi prospect Yes, he did also say he was wrong on some different things and he's trying to get better input I haven't seen anything as far as we should Abandoned these types of things I could be wrong Look whether smoke there's fire, but have you guys heard anything? I'm just asking but I can make an observation that is People in this current environment Despise successful people like spf and elon musk etc. A lot of animosity apparently somebody broke into Our best insider traders house last night, too I don't know if that's true or not. What's the name? Nancy Pelosi's house So there's a lot of a lot of pent up anger I haven't found anything on sandbank when freed everything I know about him. He is Kind of a philanthropic type of guy lives a very simple life drives a 15 year old camry Whereas new balance old sneakers sleeps on the floor of an office Kind of like elon musk sleep on the floor of a factory. I I admire people that work real hard and you know Don't go crazy in that regard. So I will just I will just say this Well, jane or been anything about that one or not really? I mean, I don't really have them I mean a lot of this stuff is just pretty typical bear market stuff You know, like I mean if prices aren't going up. We got to find something to talk about I I don't really have any any strong opinions one way or another have it spent time because I just I don't really care Yeah, they call that they call that the cheese may or the gossip, but I will say this I don't know which way it is, but I've been wrong before I think we all know that I'm not perfect That's why maybe these rules to the left of me where I talk about it's all gone Don't invest one you can afford to lose Everything's a scam until proven otherwise Don't trust in exchanges. Take it off the exchanges if you don't trust sand bacon freed and fcx Guess what? This is a great thing called a ledger. You can take it off. You can store everything Don't use leverage unless you're james apparently and then take profits because Take profits along the way because no one went broke taking profits and only use leverage I should preface this if you know exactly what you're doing. I'm not that guy to use 50 or 100 x Maybe some traders do 2x 3x not a big deal But those are the rules that I've lived by so far. They've helped me out quite a bit So if you don't trust anything Try to adapt some of those rules and that's it. So look guys. It's been an hour. We're gone over. I apologize But everybody thanks for stopping by and do appreciate it again You can find james over the best answers ben and the cup diverse james got a great patreon He's gonna he's gonna teach a lot of things that he talked about as far as trading and ben's got a great website Into the curve of the verse I Steal from it every single day. So thanks so much everybody. We appreciate it. We'll see you on the next one Adios