 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Hazel Chapman on the 15th day of March. As I said before, hides of March. Hopefully not the hides of March. We're looking at the Dow. And this is going to be important being Tuesday day before the Fed speak. What can they say? I mean, really, the amount of information that's come in regarding earnings, et cetera, is the latest, I think, is not as good as it had been, but it's still pretty good. I'm the jobless rate, et cetera. So the Fed, on the one hand, really needs in an automatic way. They should have been doing it. I've been talking about this since I think 2012. Why isn't the Fed just normalizing everything and just raising rates according to the amount of demand? If people are asking for loans and they are starting to ask more and more than you start to raise a little bit, that's just kind of a normality. And that way, you're getting ahead of things like inflation. Of course, we had deflation for a long time. But that would have been normal. Now it's like it's a big thing, but it shouldn't be a big thing. It should just be kind of a normal economic activity. So I don't know what the Fed can do. I suspect they're going to wave a big stick, but only do a quarter point because of the uncertainty in the markets. And the fact that, look, let me run this quickly. It does up $160,000 at $32,103. S&P is up $30,000 at $4,203. The QQQ and the X100 is trading up $380,000 at $322,000. Now is the action. IWM holding OK, but now it's sideways. Up $0.90 at $193,062. The gold, gold is... Yeah, and this is what I want you to get to. We're talking about inflation. Well, certainly if you're looking at the last two, three weeks, you've had an incredible moving goal from under 1900 to the 20. I dread putting these in because they get smoothed out. And the number doesn't mean anything anymore because it's a continuous contract. 2078.8. I will put it in because I keep coming back to it enough. 2078.80, and that was, I think it was March. What was that, March the 5th? March the 8th. Suddenly you also put that in. So that's March the 8th. Well, March the 8th, it screams to not an all-time high, basically a recovery high from the high that was made back in, I think it was about March of 2020, touched the 2100 area. So this is a double top pattern. I'll talk about that in a moment. But what I want you to say, talk about the Fed, because what I want you to do is just quickly go through the indices. Now we can go through the commodities. Look, gold is down $42.00 in 1918. That is one, two, three, four, five, in six days, since the highs, five days, including the high at six days. But going six days back, that's one, two, three, four, five, six. The low was 1903. So we've almost done, this is what I call the Eiffel Tower. It looks like an uppercase A. I always type this in. Let me just do that now. A, make it big, make it red, red, make it font. Let's go all the way to 48. That's the biggest they have here. And here it is. So we've got the Eiffel Tower. We had that before, way back there, back in January, when it ran up to 1850, and then plunged it down side, and then it started moving higher. And look at this. There's the A pattern. All I call it, the Eiffel Tower, straight up and straight down. I'm going to keep it there. I'm going to keep it, but I'm going to make it a little fainter, otherwise it just gets in the way of all the thinking. It's a 70. Okay, there it is. There's your A. So silver, same thing. Silver is trading down 36 cents at 24.93, having gone from the 27.40s down to today's 24.93. Another big move up and a big move down, the same number of bars. We're looking at high grade copper. High grade copper has made the Eiffel Tower. It's gone straight up and straight down. It appears in the Chapman wave. You're looking at crude oil. Look at that. We're down 8.62 today at 95.40. We were at 130.50. So is this an aberration? Are we going to go back and do retesting, et cetera? Well, if you just go from the patterns that are forming and try to do it as I always like to say, let the price movement tell us what could be going on in the fundamentals, is this really telling us that there's going to be some form of amelioration in the oil sector that there'll be alternatives or maybe we're starting a big slowdown. We don't need this kind of oil because, yeah, we're not back to January levels in the 70s, but we've governed back very quickly all these aberrational gains. This is the nuance that was really based on fear. And it goes to 130.50 in the continuous contract on the 7th of March. And yeah, it is at 94. That's 40 points. Well, do you realize at 40 points, we were trading at 59.87 was the low in December. If you think that the price movement now is 40 points below the high, just the difference that 40 points is about, what is that, 60%, 70%, yeah, about 60%, 70% of the 59 prices it was at. I mean, now you're trading not in the price of the equity or whatever it is that you're looking at, but the movements that you're starting to see are extraordinary. Now, either we're looking at, now we have to go back to talk about Ukraine, we have no choice. Now, either we're looking at a situation that says that crude oil is going to be resolved to the downside over the coming weeks because whatever happens in Ukraine and you have to be embarrassed when the President of the United States calls the Arab Emirates when you get a call and there's basically an answering machine that says, after lunch, call me again in another couple of weeks. I mean, that's really embarrassing. It says, it speaks to some, definitely speaks to a degree of on the one hand arrogance and the other hand incompetence. And all I can say is there's something wrong with that picture. And therefore we've got to look at this and say, is there going to be some, I'm not saying whether it's good, bad, ugly or anything, some resolution in the Ukrainian population and the whole aspect of the geopolitical side because we have to look at it and say, wait a minute, go from 130 down to 94. That means that within four or five days if there is a sudden spiral into the 115th area, everything is back on. But if there is a slide into the 87th area, it says, wow, that is so unusual and these times it's the portfolio which is really key to a lot of what we're looking at. So all I can say is, let's watch that price really closely and the Fed is also. Are you looking for a way to consistently add winning trades to your portfolio? Tom O'Brien is here to help. Tom O'Brien has been successfully trading markets for over 30 years. A frequent contributor to TD Ameritrade Network and CNBC, Tom O'Brien founded TFNN over 20 years ago to help educate investors just like you. Tom's Daily Market Newsletter, Market Insights, is published every morning when the market's open to give you the competitive informational edge you need to succeed. These newsletters are packed full of Tom's advanced technical analysis and are geared to deliver comprehensive strategies for a successful portfolio. Get Tom O'Brien's newsletter, Market Insights today and try all of our products and newsletters 30 days risk-free with our money-back guarantee at TFNN.com. TFNN, Educating Investors. What's separating you from the most successful men and women on Wall Street? That's right. Information. Having all the information gives us the perspective we need to place the right trades at the right time. The TAS Profile Scanner is the premier market-profile-based scanner. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free! Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com and become the investor you were born to be TFNN Educating Investors Free at 1-877-927-6648 Internationally at 727-873-7618 Yeah, so we're back and I wanted to just kind of follow up because I'm talking about the Fed and what the Fed could, should, or would do under all these different circumstances. So on the one hand, looking at this and saying, you know, if the macroeconomic and geopolitical scenario continues like this, we can't exacerbate the potential for some kind of a recession. We can't be the ones kind of instigating it by raising rates right now when in fact, under any other circumstance, you'd say, with the prices of commodities so high, yes, on the one hand, we have to fight inflation with high interest rates, but on the other hand, the whole economic scenario at this particular point, look at the FXI. This is the China large cap iShares, and it goes from just the most recent high was 39, and it's at 26. But it goes all the way back to 54.33, high of February. So it's been cut in half, exactly cut in half. If China's I mean, this basically looks like China's in a recession, right, just the chart itself, then surely we're going to be having something, there has to be a residual, there has to be a ripple waves, have to kind of filter across the ocean and we should be feeding that at some point. So I think it's a very tough, so I'm just guessing, but from the TLT action, look at this. The TLT is up today, but it went all the way just the most recent, moved down from 142 to the 131s. These are bonds, these are not stocks, these are not tech stocks. This is iShares 20 year treasury bond fund, ETF that made a peak B- because it took out the left side low, 134 most recent 134 98 low, it took out the 133 arch formation, dreaded age pattern we spoke about yesterday at 13319 back in March of 2021 what yesterday's low was 131 let me just type it in here I was 131 72 131 72 you know that's what I'm saying this is extraordinary now I'm going to do this because I think it's important I show this to my subscribers I used an opening call every weekend and let me do this one right here new years there it is so what I'm looking at here is the 30 year T bond yield is a TYX it's white, the brown is a TNX 10 year T note yield the cyan is the 5 year T note yield and look what happened there we go I typed it in so let me see if I can make this a different color let's make it gray so I can read it 24.12 2.412 was the high of the weekend 19th of March of 2021 is that correct I need to just double check it's a little hard to see okay 24 oh I keep getting different numbers 20 there it is 25.05 25.85 I should make it white so I can read it 25.05 so it's not 24.12 it's 25.05 25.05 and I don't think this gets smoothed out no and what we're looking at on this particular the high of this weekend was yesterday was 24.76 in leg C so I have to call it a great peak C or leg C because we haven't taken out the high that was made back in March of 2021 and is that correct yes that's correct so isn't that interesting because the 5 year the cyan one has spiraled to the upside with the 10 year so there's almost an overlap of the bar but not the price of course so the 5 year is 20.38 there's 2.038 and the 10 year is 2.091 huh they got close they are why bother getting a 10 year where you can get the 5 year for the same thing you don't obligate yourself but look at the 24.38 2.438 in the 30 year so whatever we're looking at right now in the yields periodically we've been here before a little bit like that but right there up at that top it was made back in the week of the, it was a weekly chart week of 2nd November of 2018 when it did 34.55 but one of those prices is still active because it doesn't get smoothed out as well 33.32 34.47 this is 34.55 let's keep it as close enough so look at that and then it made a peak deal and pulled back sharply are we in that situation right now that yields the Fed does something and for some, remember when the yield locks in the rate that's your call when it just does that because it's trading maybe that's your call but it really isn't it's not fixed because this could drop sharply so that's not your base price the Fed fixes at that's going to be it so I suspect maybe a quarter point and then just wave your stick and say but we are quite ready to go even 50 basis points and the next move it could even be earlier than the next move just kind of have that threat I think the market would be a little bit relieved that at least something's off the table over there but they'll also get worried oh is the Fed now worried about a recession there's always something to worry about when it's once removed just from your regular daily worry that's a problem but look how beautifully would the ice shares of the global timber and forestry ETF is holding if I was to look at this chart I'd say you know with all the talk and everything globally economically we're actually doing not too badly and even even the Philadelphia Housing Index HGX yes it's gone underneath the rectangle it's usually not a good sign it's got these beautiful arch and cups and arch and cups and the last one was an arch and it's trading at 423.93 at 5.29 today but it's underneath the base of 439 0.50 it's called a 439 yeah I think that when you look at everything we're actually doing a lot better I want to get out of this now because I don't want to create a little problem with my charts of close space yes all goodbye but what I am saying is that think of this we've made a high in the S&P back on the 4th of January and in all this time with an international war going on look at this the price has gone from 48.18 down to 41.14 yes you have 700 points that's a really big move but look what we've come from even just looking at this peak I'm still calling it a peak in the monthly chart just on a digestive basis I don't see any reason why it shouldn't go down to 4,000 it doesn't have to I'm just saying under this digestive phase and we've had it in a long time this is different to that a sell-off when the Fed was talking about raising rates back in going to the that was actually here that was back in 2018 December going to that the low of like that that was in September going to the low of December that was a boxing day low 26th of December and that was quickly repaired I'll be back are you having fun trading the markets but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with become an apex predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading 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this is the one minute chart the 200 period moving average and it's gone to peak AP, BCD and E and we should get some kind of a pullback again of this E we'll see what happens so a couple of just a couple of quick questions was is this SCO a viable instrument right now well I mentioned just subscribers around I think 24 days ago I said I just don't have the courage I know that we would have a stop but it works overnight and all that sort of thing to go into the SCO which is three time two off the top of my head I think it's two times two times short the crude oil it was trading in the 580 area now it's at 712 it's up 9 almost 10% today if you look at crude oil it's pulling back the only reason is when you're dealing with something that could anything could happen overnight it just makes it for some if you're doing it personally in your society dude you're watching you doing everything but as a as a commentary or a suggestion for subscribers in this environment with the speed that's and the speed and the amount of points that on percentage changes it's just really tough so I had mentioned this is where I would like to go but I just didn't have the courage for it and we have pulled back and even today crude oil is down almost $9 so yes it's viable but now you've got a risk I don't know what the risk tolerance is a couple of you asked me about it absolutely yesterday was the perfect time to do it today is it's much more difficult not only that you've got you've got the market which is now up 333 338 in the Dow maybe anticipating something that's going to happen tomorrow with the Fed so a lot of things are going on so yes it is viable that's what the question was but in terms of risk tolerance I think that the best has been done just for now and now the risk is much greater next question was AB and I just wanted to confirm when I'm talking about the the actual in the crude oil when I'm talking about not expecting some kind of help from the countries that produce the oil this is this is what you look back and you say what have we done for those countries where do we stand what exactly is going on and then there's tremendous disappointment if there isn't some help and that's really the issue and the issue is that this is kind of where you find out who your friends are and it's going to be I think that the repercussions should be quite serious and in fact just from my perspective it says have even more determination to develop some kind of independence in this whole area of just oil generation because we need to do it even if it's short term that's all I'm saying so the other thing yeah we go so what we're looking at is that question, another question is okay XLE, I'll do the XLE here because we're looking at, oops I don't do that Axel is not what we wanted we're doing a minus in Airbnb so the question was is Airbnb a viable instrument at this particular time based on everything that you're looking at all right well Airbnb apartment rental service it should be doing very well because a lot of people are saying oh we're back we want to be going out we want to but look the price is saying it is struggling maybe there's something else that's going on with Airbnb but if I'm doing it just on a chart basis this is not good action at all this is the kind of action that you'd be looking at and saying uh oh spring and summer are coming and Airbnb is lagging it's up to 4.60 at 143 but wow it's in a trading range between 155 and 130 and it's kind of stuck so this is really tough for me the only question is do I buy or do I sell or do I step aside and I'm going to say just at this moment I would probably make the compromise and I'd say it's held the left side low it's making a little mini arch formation it's having a green candle you have two choices to start a very small position I think that was the question that I started position and I'm going to suggest right here you can either start at 143.20 I personally would not have more than 3.2% stop the 3.0 stop why because if it goes back it's a 143 if it starts to trading at 139 in this environment and in three or four days it's not able to really spiral above into even filling the gap from a couple of days ago maybe goes to 145.80 could do that today it hasn't done it yet then you're looking at something that's just stuck it doesn't have to break down but it's stuck especially if you're looking at the huge arch formation in the weekly chart and the smaller one in the dating it's a sharper one in the dating only because it's a shorter term but it's shorter in duration going from late January into where we are now so I'm going to say 143.48 start your position and it's really a small starter position I would probably if tomorrow at 3.30 in the afternoon even going to Thursday if it's trading above 146 I would add another small position that's the way I would trade it I'd keep it as a trade I don't see this yet as a buy and hold but I do think that it is trying to form a base to say I'm in play now the big thing about it is it has so many resistance levels 162 is the 200 moving average and it said 140 that's 22 points higher they said 143, 20 points higher I don't know all I can say is that it's a very disappointing chart formation right now and I would just be really careful so nibble here you could even step aside and say I'd rather buy strength than weakness but what it does is it shows strength then it reverses within 3 days it's done that so many or 4 days it's under so many times so what I'm saying is that I would nibble here 143, 57 I'd probably want to add if tomorrow at 3 o'clock after the Fed speak it's actually rallying I'd add some and I'd say this original position here could still have maybe a 2 point or a 3 point stop and just let it go where it's going to go that's the only way you can do it right now because there's not a single sign that I can see even I'm looking at the on balance volume I just see nothing to say that the strength and it's showing right in this moment has the power to go to the 157 area to start a new leg B to the upside if it does that, that's a really good sign and maybe you have to give up about 10 points to do that but I'm saying yep at 143 57 or 70 that was when we started this I'd say you could start your position yeah next thing I had was oh, Baidu Baidu is a good green candle today after a long-legged doji candle yesterday but it has gone ABC failure it has gone from over 350 to yesterday's low 102.18 this is very ugly and that comes into the category of you know you want to look at it that comes in the category of the FXI which is for the first time trying to have a big green candle wouldn't that be something, I'll be back are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the Bay Area including the surrounding St. Petersburg, Tampa and Clearwater markets, Tiger Real Estate LLC is a firm that has extensive experience in the Tampa Bay Area whether you're looking to sell your current 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then a much larger one went to a low low then a much larger one and went to a low low broke the 2200 period moving average support then treated as resistance made a second arch a nice second is about the fourth arch then it's made a fifth arch and went to a lower low and now what we're looking at is that the low that was made at 13,000 I think it was in 20 13,020 just yesterday I forgot to type that in that was 13,020 and 20.40 is trading up 250 points at 13,296 now under all circumstances that I would be doing my short term to intermediate term work I would at this particular stage say this is a market that is just look at the on balance volume it's gone all the way to a low it's made a v-shape recovery from yesterday stochastic is making a higher low the MAG-D trying its best to see the 9 period differential cross above the 14 therefore the histogram is going to improve just a little bit the 9 is still way under the 14 but this is exactly the moment in the dreaded age pattern that says there was a lower low yesterday and yet another move within a day above the left side low the day is young I'm talking about an hour and a quarter into the session I can't talk about it as if it's 4 o'clock but I am saying that under every other condition and I can't talk about the political aspect or the war going on I have to just talk about the chart this is exactly where there should be a rally but the point to be made it will not succeed because it's making lower arches and lower lows and it will not succeed unless for about 2 or 3 days after it does it if it's able to do it it closes above the high of 3 days that's Friday I believe it was Friday's high was 13,714 on the NDX100 if there is a close above it going into Friday afternoon certainly by Monday and it's able to hold the the 14 period moving average of 13,640 I don't want to go down to the 13,486 so that's a huge ask but this is exactly what I'd be looking at for some kind of a rally that has time to the upside time to the upside is not 3 or 4 sessions it's really maybe 2 weeks and I don't know in these conditions can we go 2 weeks without bad news enveloping the market I don't know but that's what it would need and on the downside in the chapmoy methodology in the weekly chart little double top there and it's come down to a leg E and you can see that for the first time you start to notice that the decline is smaller than it had been before as both in the daily and in the weekly that's below the left side low this is exactly the moment the MACD in the weekly chart has oodles of time to go before the histogram can even get to a zero line it is way down a minus 291 the stochastic is flat remember when it's over 80% and holding I say that's all the books are wrong they say unbalanced volume sorry they say the stochastic over 80% is overbought and under 20% is oversold I say no there's exact wrong words over 80% is excellent especially over 90% and holding and flattening well we flattening now it's 17% so it's the exact opposite so until the stochastic can really start to trade on a weekly basis above I'd say 22% but I really can't I have to say 25% it's kind of stuck so all I'm saying is that for this to be the kind of bounce that is worth putting on a position and widening your stop and then narrowing your stop as it rallies today it's up 265% 2% if tomorrow afternoon eastern time at 3 o'clock the NDX I don't know where it'll close today I don't know where it'll be at that time but if there's a rally and it is getting close to the 13,000 350 13,400 level that's going into tomorrow's close or higher that'll say whew this is about time we've got a pretty decent rally and especially gold can be continuing it's downside move and the geopolitical yellow light that flashes which is called gold gold has to also be pulling back because that is in play as a almost like a VIX index in the fear factor of gold geopolitically so the VIX is the market fear factor it is the geopolitical fear factor the dollar trading I didn't even do that today our dollar we are long from 90.07 trading at 98.75 if the dollar continues to hold here it says you know what with all the bad talk and everything this is still the most respected currency in the world and it's a stabilizing factor and that's important so John I want to just for a moment go to the QQQ we've got a little bit more notation there you can see these arch formations and you can see that in the QQQ obviously the same as the NDX100 a lot of people are not looking at the NDX100 they've got the QQQs if you look at the weekly chart sell mode is deeply in place if you look at the monthly chart with two weeks over two weeks to go you're looking at the candle last month which I called a kind of a chapamid Roman candle not 100% but very close because the wick is just a little bit too big but it's already deeply into it it's already tested and broken the left side low so that's suggesting there's a chance that on March the 31st Thursday March the 31st we have no choice but to say you know what if there is not a really strong runny towards the 348 to 353 area by the last days of March I have to think that there's a sell signal coming up in the monthly chart so I think I've done that about as thoroughly as I could question I have here about CLF I think it was let me just go back here Sharky wants to know about CLF CLF is oh it typed into the den by mistake sorry CLF oh I didn't sorry I didn't do the downside for the QQQ's I'll get in a moment CLF I said just let it pull back it's a 2452 making the arch formation that dreaded age let's see if it can pull back under 24 my thinking here is if you haven't got any CLF this is cleaver and cliffs it is flat roll steel and iron or pellets I think the steels are just having a bit of a breather they've been spectacular running the last two weeks it just needs a bit of a pull back I'd look at it again if you've had it and you've taken money off and now you say where do I put back ideally at about 2350 to 2280 but at the moment I'm just saying if the question is where would I get in right now on the CLF cleaver and cliffs if you haven't had any maybe just nibble here 2449 like a feeler but this journey is such a small position even if it drops three points it's not going to hurt you but this is kind of where you want to get a feel for I think it could drop another point or so and that's really where I would prefer to be able to pull back the moment as a Chapman OS or WTG for sure sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument you have to practice sure but you also need excellent instruction from experts at TFNN you'll get advice and guidance from the authority in technical market analysis and it's not just dry tedious text either TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV live every market day from 8.30 am to 4.00 pm eastern for free each host is an 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$1,000 per year on $100,000 invested or $7,000 per year on a secured Tiger First mortgage the Tiger First mortgage program may be just the program for you the Tiger First mortgage program pays 7% per year paid monthly for more information you can call 877-518-9190 that's 877-518-9190 just click the think or swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com I forgot to talk about the downside of the QQQ if there is a close between this week and next week it's at 324 right now if there is for whatever reason the close below 310 that monthly chart is going to say that is a very serious problem now I need to just talk about this for a moment we've had the tax sector take an unbelievable hit in many stocks that's the QQs but actually I grabbed this always as just a good example docusign having a bit of a green session today but it goes from 314 down to days low of let's call it the 72 level so many of these stocks are extremely oversold under any condition but the big question for me is are we about to see the Microsofts that held beautifully and basically have just started rolling over are we starting to see stocks that basically held up very well in the big cap more the the Dow type big stocks and Microsoft is part of that you'd include in this particular instance you could even go to a Walmart because I want to do something in the retail area holding towards the highs in the rectangle pattern the big question for me is are we about to see the roll over now in the stocks that have held extremely well as the big caps that have now become small caps like a docusign like many of the others are they going to start to find some stabilization as the ones that have held best start to tank and that says are we now only in the second part or even maybe a quarter of the third part of this bear market and now we're going to see something else and that to me is a really big question and tomorrow I'll be doing my show at 8 o'clock to 9 o'clock and it'll be repeated again at 10 but I have to do an early show tomorrow and I'll talk a lot more about that because I think that is an issue that we need to discuss are we looking at a roll over sector by sector by sector or are we actually looking at spending the ones that are holding up now actually buoy the market over the next three part. Have a wonderful session