 All right, hello everyone. This presentation's gonna be recorded, and today we're going to go a little more free form and go into some of our fact-based trading solutions, some of the things that we're posting in the room, posting on Twitter, and these are solutions that you can get access to by subscribing with us. So we're gonna go over our fact-based approach and kinda just break down what's happening. We've got some good movement in the market, and we've got a team up for FOMC tomorrow, so everything's right on schedule. This is our market outlook, and this is what we posted last night. So we're posting the outlook at the start of the crypto session, which is 12 midnight UTC time. So I'm in Chicago, so that's 7 p.m. Central Standard Time. And I'm highlighting that we're focusing on, this is our Bitcoin market outlook. It's based off our weekly structure. We're following a perpetual contract. We're highlighting Tuesday, which is part of our price discovery. So Tuesdays and all Tuesdays have their own nuances, and we're highlighting the date. Particularly we provide a little color of insight, so today was better learn how to trade options, and this is basically saying that these markets are very volatile and they move out of nowhere, and a great way to take advantage of that is to trade with options. And we'll get into that more in other podcast events that we're going to cover, and we're gonna kinda do more of a deep dive on options trading, and provide you also with fact-based trading solutions to trade options. So we're gonna break down this commentary, and then we're gonna go to live market. This is weekly structure, so this structure is not going to change for the whole week. And we'll go through the commentary, and then I'm gonna pull up a live chart, but this is where we were trading last night. And basically going over, Bitcoin was stuck in a difficult trade awaiting news events to provide volatility uptick. So we're sitting in front of waiting for CPI, market digested all yesterday, and it's continuing to digest, and it's kinda waiting for the news events that are coming out. So the week for crypto starts on Sunday, and it goes, and then we have our opening range is determined by Sunday's action. And so we're identifying the opening range here, opening range high, opening range low, opening range midpoint. And we've also identified the previous week's high, previous week's low, previous week's close, and the previous week's midpoint. So just based on this, we are trading within the previous week's close and previous week's midpoint. So this is a good directional range for us. Is the market gonna make a play for the previous week's high and our sentiment bias level, which is at 27,703, or we're gonna get a failure here that validates below the opening range low and starts to press into the previous week's low. And so this is what we go over basically in our commentary, we're just fact focus, doing our best to just interpret those facts and what they mean, adding some of our experience to it, some qualitative nature, but trying to stick with the facts. And so we've got events coming up, could see a volatility uptick. You know, for now the market remains in a defensive posture before 26,200 and is vulnerable to further corrective action down to 25,600. Let me put our, you know, I'm gonna switch to our live charts a little clear just to see the difference. We were here posting here and now we've got our live chart here. So we made a squeeze to the upside. So we're talking about this 26,200 level is a key point and we're vulnerable to corrective action down to 25,600, which is here. That could even extend down to 25,350. So it's coming into the previous week's low. So we're basically just kind of focused off the top of the opening range is a good pivot. And on the upside, if we do start to see some basing above here, it's positive, but we really need to get a breach of 26,400, which is the previous week's midpoint. So if we can't validate, we could see an extension up to here, but based in real time right now, we could not validate. So we do have FOMC coming out tomorrow and the market did make a push to the upside, press the previous week midpoint, is not trading above here. So we're back in that defensive posture. So this market is leaning. You know, just looking at price action, we do have some higher lows. If the market's bad, it's gonna start to build lower highs here. And this will be our validation point if we're going lower. We could easily just trade within this range. It gets back up above the previous week's close. We're right back in neutral. It's just kind of difficult trading. So these are your structure points for the week. And right now what we're gonna do is dial in a little tighter. And so this is the weekly structure. And so we're going to take a look at the daily structure. We just set this up. Any questions on the weekly outlook before we switch? So this outlook is published daily. So basically what we're doing is we're updating this price action within weekly structure. And that's really all we can do is observe price action within the context of this structure within this framework. So the practical application of this is, and if you are using book map and you're seeing real-time events, those real-time events are occurring here. So no matter what your tactic or strategy is, this is the foundation that you're dealing with. If you are getting a signal and it's a sell signal, well, that's in alignment with the bigger structure. So we're currently below the opening range midpoint and we're right at the previous week's close. So as the market starts to roll over here and starts trading below 2,500, 800, that's going to be in alignment with the bigger structure and with the potential for a negative shift. And the same goes if you're getting positive signals here. Where is it within the structure? And so you can use the structure as a couple of things. Everyone's signal acceptance. Yeah, so if you're getting a signal, currently the market is pretty much on the fence, so your risk reward for either direction is pretty decent here. Now if you're a buyer here, you don't need to risk much. Basically below 2,500, 800 is your risk. If you're getting a buy signal, sometimes the market does stabilize off these lower metrics to make a move to the upper metric. So if we aren't able to fail and we stabilize, we could rotate back up to test this if we're having a digestive trade. But with the MFOMC, more likely digestive trade. What other facts do we have? Well, the sentiments above the market, so this is the big sell area for the week. This is where all the selling energy is in Bitcoin. It's the only time the market's below sentiment and below the directional. It's a kind of a double negative and that's targeting downside pivot areas at 24,265. So you can use using the structure as a risk management tool, size management tool. This is where your big size is on cells. So if we're talking in units of three, this would be a three unit sell trade. This would be a two unit sell trade off of the directional, anticipate and move down to here. On the buy side, everything's pretty much against sentiment. So if we're looking for more exhaustive reversals to get along, this would have been potentially a break in structure, but the market wasn't able to hold it. We start to base here. It's still a lower size trade because it's correct if it's against sentiment. So the triggers on the upside are getting above the directional, above the opening range high and above the previous week's midpoint. Those are really the hurdles for any return to the positive. And then once we're trading in these areas and we're basing above here, that's when you can get some decent follow through to the upside and make a play for the upside pivot. So it's a structure risk management structure. Where's your signal occurring within the structure? That gives you the value of your signal. And this is based on the weekly. So if we focus on the daily timeframe and this is the integration that we have with book map where the daily structure is included in the cloud notes column. So there's a cloud notes and basically you set that up with our data file and it'll plot the structure there. But before we get into that, let's kind of switch to another application that gets more in depth on the daily structure. And that is our daily playbook. So these fact-based trading solutions, we follow the daily, weekly, monthly, even quarterly and yearly structure and each one of those structures can kind of be tweaked for what is your timeframe that you trade? And so if you're primarily focused on day trading, then you're gonna be focused primarily on the daily structure and the weekly because the weekly is gonna be kind of the bigger, the foundation. But all these structures are based on how money moves and how the money managers that move the markets have all the dough, what their concerns are and they're basically their performance metrics. And so they really don't go down lower than a daily timeframe. So that's our lowest timeframe. And an active timeframe for them is the monthly timeframe. So absolutely focusing on alignment of the daily, weekly and monthly timeframe is key for any timeframe that you trade just so you're aware and you're not running into walls. But this is our daily playbook. So all these markets are focused on the daily structure. Where, you know, what this is doing is it's providing you with the market state. What's that? Technical foundation. And we are looking at Bitcoin and that technical foundation for Bitcoin is neutral digestion. Everyone's traded neutral digestion, sideways trade. You know, if you start to take a step back and think about neutral digestion, you know, markets are always transitioning from one market state to the next. And so a neutral digestion state transitions differently than let's say a bear trend state. And so a neutral digestion state is a precursor to a breakout. You know, that's just a fact. And that's something to be aware of when you're trading markets that are in a digestive phase. They're consolidating to potentially have an explosive move. So just as you're, you know, if you're applying a return to mean or strategy and fading market moves, you definitely need to be aware of the fact that when the market decides to transition out of a neutral state, it can be an explosive move. So if you're in options, if you're selling the belly, you want to make sure you're buying the wings as a hedge. So we set this foundation, this technical market state foundation, and we want to be really clued into what you, what you, you know, what that really means. You know, this is kind of a temperature gauge of the market, right? The market state, you know, so each state is going to have its own attributes, you know? And so for a neutral, there's no momentum. It's a spin cycle, you know? There's really no bias to this neutral state in just, in general, you know, if we're just taking, like if we're painting a picture here and we're looking to identify, you know, what's this base coat? Is it, you know, we're painting an ocean scene or a forest scene or urban scene or, you know, what kind of foundation do we have? And that's really what this state's all about. And we're gonna, and then you start to build layers of structure on top of that base, but what's that general base? You know, what's the weather? You're taking a, you know, a temperature gauge. You know, volatility is gonna, you know, typically gonna contract. And, you know, we're not really in a trend. So these are all the attributes of a neutral digestion. And that's what these commentaries really just go through. And, you know, once you own that, you know, you know, you could even add your own attributes to those environments, but that's what it is. You know, if we're in a bull trend correction, it's gonna have different attributes. You know, if we're in a trend mode, it's gonna have, you know, better, different attributes. And that's something to be aware of. Different market expectations, different characteristics, but you're setting your foundation. And this is how you can tweak your tactics as well. So, you know, you can't come into the market with a tactic and bang your head in just to say, this tactic's gonna work. And then you get frustrated because it doesn't work every day. And it works, but it works fantastic some days. Well, the reason it works fantastic some days is because it's in alignment with the state. And that's when, and so, you know, adjusting your tactics and creating tactics that align with a market state is key. You know, so once we identify this market state, then we need to, you know, then we can start to put some structure around it. So we know the market's in a sideways pattern. We know it's a neutral. And what's the key thing about neutral? Well, what's it digesting within? So we're gonna start to look at that structure. And that's what this is all about. This is what we call our price map. And this is our market structure. And so market structure is different than price structure. Where price structure is identifying, you know, the price action and actually when the way we look at price structure is really identifying, you know, what is the specific high low of a range or a timeframe is the structure we like to look at. But if subjectively, if you're looking at more technical analysis, you're watching price swings and you're looking for the market to, in a trending situation, you're looking for a market to make, you know, in a bear trend, lower move lows, lower move highs. You know, that's negative, you know, structure, negative price structure. And in neutral, you're looking for the market not to trend, you're not looking for any sustained, you know, lower highs, lower lows, higher lows, higher highs situation, you're looking for the market to break structure all over the place. And that's what validates a neutral, neutral digestive market state. You know, so you're always looking for that market, that validation is the market to performing to the expectation of the state characteristics. If it's not, maybe we're in transition. You know, if we're in a neutral state and the market starts to trend in a direction and holds structure, you know, that's a tell that, hey, something might be up and something to be aware of. And then also it's a tell when the market does break structure and it tells you, hey, yeah, we're in neutral. So then you can kind of press those characteristics. You can press those tactics and strategies that align with it. And so one of the first things we do when we're identifying the structure of the market is we wanna look at where sentiment is. So every day there's a number and you can call it an over-under number. We call our sentiment bias, our reversal level. You know, so we're basically positive above this price, negative below this price. And that price today is $26,390 for the Binance Bitcoin perpetual contract. But what it also does is it identifies this, it's not only the over-under number, but it's identifying where the top is of this neutral digestion. And so it really comes to zero in and since the market sentiment bias is above the market, it's given this neutral digestion a negative tone. So it's definitely, there's a sideways expectation, but the sell side is there's a lean to the sell side in this digestive trait. And it also is the energy point where if we do get a breakout to the upside, it's more likely to have more energy to the upside than to the downside, just because it'd be a more powerful shift in sentiment and in state. The other part of the structure is what we call our critical range. It's the upside pivot and the downside pivot. So we've got, turns out today, sentiment is at the upside pivot, which is not always the case, but today it is and that creates a special, what we call regime. And that's what we're identifying here, this risk regime. And so this is just telling us, hey, we're at risk below this price point and we're at risk down to this area. So this 25,430 today is our stabilization point. So that's kind of the low end. If we're gonna have this sideways state is gonna continue, then the market's more likely gonna stabilize off this 25,430. And so that's what this commentary is really just going through. It's just talking about, hey, we know the market's in a neutral digestive state and here's the structure of it. Here's where sentiment is. Here's how sentiment's gonna change that. So we know that neutral state's digestive, but since the R level is equal to the upside pivot, it gives them a negative tone below this price point. The ether is a little different where its sentiment is above the upside pivot. So what this is doing is it's expanding this digestive range. So the critical range is in the focus for this neutral digestion and ether. It's actually even higher. So this 18,13 in ether is at what we call our upside target one. So it expands that range. See if we've got anything a little different here. This market is at what we call our critical range extreme. So basically where sentiment is kinda skews the state. Gives it just a little bit of a different tone. And so it's all, we're just optimizing our view or just really dialing into what the foundation of the market is. What's that, what tactics, a tactic that's gonna work well at the upside pivot is gonna be, we're gonna need to tweak that out when sentiment's higher because we don't wanna get too aggressive at the upside pivot this here. Cause we know the energy is here. Simple as that. Where are the key structure points of this state where the market's gonna make decisions? And so we define that base layer, we define the sentiment to that layer and the price structure that defines it. And so if we're in this state and we have this sentiment bias with this structure, what are the optimal strategies? What do we, you know, what is the best thing to do? That's, you know, that's optimal. Well, the best thing to do in a neutral digestive state with sentiment above the market is to fade momentum into the upper lid. So we're gonna wanna fade momentum into here. This is our optimal strategy themes. The other optimal theme is the market presses it to the downside because sentiment's above the market. We wait for the market to kind of flush out, maybe make, create what we call a reversal where it goes below this price point and then pops back up above it, gives us a reversal signal, telling us that it's a kind of a false breakout and it markets more likely to bounce back into a digestive trait. So those are kind of the optimal, the optimal themes are always in alignment with the state characteristics. So in the state characteristics for neutral digestion is they're going nowhere. And so, you know, these are two strategies to look for. They're not the only opportunities for the session, but they are the best. And this is where, you know, if these are occurring, this is where you wanna bet big. These are your big bets. I mean, this is opportunity, participating in this momentum, transitioning from one extreme to the next. You know, so there's definitely opportunities throughout the day and this is a decent sized move. And so, you know, if you're more swing trading, looking to identify specific areas or you're just gonna trade momentum, you can also look at these as themes. So if the more, you know, and, you know, are we gonna get a play for this level? Are we gonna get a play for this level? Maybe we do, maybe we don't. But if we do get a play for this level and maybe it happened overnight and now the market's moving away from it, you can look at this as a theme. It's not so much, you know, yes. You, whenever you come into the market, you need to say, hey, the market's in this theme. It's moving within this theme. It's moving within the sell you pee fade theme. And how do I jump on that theme? Is that theme still in control or not? Is price action making, you know, lower move lows, lower move highs after it attained that target? You know, and aligning with that theme. And as long as that theme's in control, then you can feel more confident that those characteristics from the state are gonna remain true. And if we break structure, well, that's what we call our hedge themes. So now things are different. Things are maybe in transition. This, you know, if we are breaking structure and we are moving outside this critical range or above the sentiment bias or we fail from the critical range and we can't get back above the directional, we might be in a negative transition. So we have a couple hedge strategy themes. And this is, you know, markets potentially in transition. And so one of our hedge strategy themes is a bi-UP breakout. So we get above, you know, we're getting above the upside pivot here. We get a breakout above here. That could spark a breakout of this neutral digestion and signal a transition. We don't know what the market's transitioning into. It might be just expanding your, you know, the critical range. It could just be expanding the digestive trade. We're not sure, but we don't want to fade it. We're gonna, you know, we want to go with that momentum. You know, this is, and this is exactly what these commentaries are going over. They're just explaining, and it's literally a playbook. You know, it's a, you have a book. It's in markets in a neutral digestive state. It's got sentiment at the UP. What are the optimal hedge strategy themes? What does it mean when the market is generating a UP by breakout? And it's just giving you guidance to what, what's the state? Because it is what it is, and it doesn't change for any market, any asset class. It's all the same. Here in this state with this structure, this is what you do. This is what it means. And if we get a by UP breakout, it might be the start of a potential positive state transition. Or it could be an expansion of this digestive parameters. Well, it seems we've had some technical issues on my end that we haven't been able to update our, you guys, we've been blind here for a little bit. Is that correct? We've been sharing in a trade room, but we haven't been sharing on Discord. Just wanna see, when did the screen disconnect? All right, I'm gonna go, I'm gonna start from the beginning here. We've had, and I'm gonna go through the playbook back again, and we'll go over the market outlook at a different time. But we're gonna, we're gonna get into the playbook right now, and we're gonna talk about this application, and we're going to go into the live market and just see how things are playing out, but just give you an idea of what we have going on here. So I'm gonna just start from the beginning. So, we offer fact-based trading solutions. And basically what that is is, we're not providing conjecture or subjectivity. We're looking to focus on what, whether the true facts, you know, yesterday's high, that, you know, well, crypto, the last year I said I can be debatable to base on where you're trading, but if you're trading a, by and answer, you're trading on Coinbase, it's gonna publish a high, and that's a fact. And so those are the kinds of truths that we look for instead of saying, okay, there's a trend line here or a point of control there or whatever. These things can be subjectively interpreted, and we wanna avoid that. And so what we do is all of our algorithms are focused on identifying the truth and what the facts are. And so one of our applications that helps us do that is what we call our playbook. And the playbook, this is our market grid. It's color coded for the different types of states. What's a market state? You know, this is kind of our base later that we're looking at when you're coming into the market, you need to take a temperature. You know, is it hot and muggy out? Is it freezing cold? Do you need a jacket? You're gonna bring a raincoat? Are you wearing a hat? Do you have your sunglasses? Do you not need them? You know, how are you preparing for the trade session? And that's really the state. What's the context and being aware of the context? So you're painting a picture. Is it a night scene? Is it underwater scene or in the mountains? What colors is gonna be that base color that you wanna bring out in that painting? You know, this is what the market analytics do is they're painting that picture for you and they're gonna start out with a base coat. And that base coat is the state. You know, so red is our negative bear trend color. You know, this is our bear trend correction. So the mark is in the negative trend but at a positive shift. We're gonna take a look at Bitcoin today and it's brown, it's our neutral color. So market is in a neutral digestion. And so neutral digestion is, you know, most traders look at states as, you know, trending or non-trending. It's, you know, and maybe even push it a little further saying they're at an extreme. So they, you know, they, you know, really just, you know, I mean, they're in neutral. I'm trending higher, trending lower. So we've just taken that to a different level and just saying, okay, there's, we're not just looking at trending or non-trending, we're looking at what type of trend is it? What type of non-trend is it? You know, we, you know, in a non-trend state, we've got a couple things going on here in, on the crypto side for non-trend. We've got neutral digestion. It's classic. That's a picture out of a textbook of sideways trade. That is a general market state. We also have markets that are in a neutral negative shift where market's been in neutral or trending and it just, and it shifts back into, into more of a neutral negative position. A market that's in a bear trend correction is a non-trend state. So you've got a market that was trending negative and it, and now it's starting to go sideways. It still has somewhat of a negative lean, but it's, it's, you have this, you know, you have this corrective action. So that's another non-trend state. So if you're, you're tweaking out what tactics you wanna use, are we using trend following or non-trend following? Simple as that, but then, then you start to say, okay, well, if I'm in straight neutral position, I can fade either direction. But if I'm in a market that's in a bear trend correction, I'm gonna wanna lean on the, the sell signals versus the buy signals. Cause that market could just turn into a bear trend. And I may even leverage up those negative signals that at positive extremes in a bear trend correction. Cause I might be catching the high point of a corrective move. And so understanding that state foundation is key. And then each, each market state is gonna have its own characteristics. And we've, you know, we've all lived all these states, you know, instead of having the, you know, the neutral uptrend, downtrend, we've identified 26 signature market states and we've, you know, really classified the attributes of each one. And so getting, you know, getting in sync with these attributes of each state is the first thing that you do. And so we're gonna, let's focus on, go back to Bitcoin. So we're talking about neutral digestion. What are the attributes and characteristics of a neutral digestion? Well, there's no momentum. There's not really a bias. You know, volatility is, is gonna contract. And there's no, there's no real trend. You know, those, and the expectation is the market's gonna look like this. This is what we expect the market to look like. And if it's not looking like this, then maybe the market's in transition and that's a fact. And so that's something to be, to consider. You know, one thing about, you know, any market state is it has its own characteristics when it performs the expectation of the state. So neutral digestion, performing the expectation the state's gonna go sideways. And then it also has a characteristic of when it transitions. Cause markets are always transitioning from one state to the next. And your job as a trader is to identify is the market performing the expectation or of the state or not. Is it in transition? And the days that it performs the expectation of the state, those are the easier days. That's when things make sense. That's when things, it's easier to get in sync. When things aren't performing to the expectation of the state and we're in transition, things are unclear. We're not sure where it's going next. And so when you are in a neutral digestive state one of the key features of that when it transitions it can be the precursor to a breakout. And so what we're doing with the playbook is just literally this is a book. And if you're in this neutral market state this is what it is. And just providing a solid definition to make sure that you're on the right page of what the characteristics are and being aware of them. So once we have this base layer you now we need to kind of, we wanna put some structure around it. Okay, well we know we're in neutral digestion but where is that upper lead and where is that lower base? And that's where our price map comes into play. And it looks to, this critical range is defining this structure. And so the next thing we look at is on structure is two things. We're looking at our sentiment bias and what the framework is of that market state. So where is the market gonna make decisions to transition? Are they, is it gonna hold structure and perform to the expectation of the state? Or is it gonna break structure and transition? And these are the key price points that all the money is looking at. Everyone's looking, that's when people, the big money is gonna come in and make decisions. When markets transition. Or are they gonna persist? So in the first thing that we do to that next base layer that we're on our painting is what we call our sentiment bias. And that's our over and under number. That's our number that we look at to say, okay above this price we're positive, below this price we're negative. And where is that sentiment bias within the neutral digestion? Well today in Bitcoin it comes in at $26,390. And it also turns out that that's our upside pivot. So you've got two things that are in alignment. You've got our critical range, which is our UP upside pivot and our DP downside pivot. That in this framework for the neutral digestion it's defining the upper boundary and the lower boundary, what we call our critical range. And then the sentiment bias is giving us a skew and it's telling us, hey, since sentiment is at the upside pivot, it gives the market a negative tone. And so that's another thing to consider. So this is something to consider on your tactics. Are you, this is telling you, hey, yeah, we're neutral, but we have a negative bias. So it can be a size management tool. Hey, if I get a sell signal and I'm below 26,390, then I'm gonna trade that bigger than if I get a buy signal. Kind of simple as that. And especially then in the value of your signals are gonna be determinant where you are within this structure. And so the sentiment bias can float around but the structure does not. So ether today is in neutral digestion as well, but its sentiment's a little different. And so it's a little different skew. They're both in neutral digestion. They both have the same baseline characteristics, but their structure's different. So that just changes things slightly. So instead of just being a hard point for ether, there's actually a band. And so actually this whole area from 1813 to 1779 in ether is kind of a resistance band. But the real selling energy in ether is gonna be in 1813. So basically this sentiment creates a skew of the state and the structure of the state, the price structure of the state is defined by the price map. And the base of that price map is the critical range. I'm not gonna get into the different levels, but they're just basically the directional is the midpoint. And then we have some other minor levels. And as you go through, when you come on and start working with the playbook, you can go through the different tutorials that go into the detail. But the main focus of the structure is the critical range. And that's what we're going over here. This section is really going over how does sentiment skew the critical range? And since we're in, this is a playbook, it's an if-then statement. If you're in this state with this structure, then this is what you do. And it's the same for any market, any asset class. If you're in a neutral digestive technical state and the sentiment is above the market at the upside pivot, then these are your optimal strategies. And also your transition or hedge strategies. So optimally, and this is all logic, what do you do when the market is in a neutral state with sentiment above the market? So negative sentiment bias. Well, best thing to do is gonna be to fade momentum into the upper extreme. That's just what it is. And you're gonna come to those decisions as well as the more you understand, hey, this is the state, this is the structure, what's my optimal theme? Well, the optimal theme is I'm gonna self-fade the momentum into 36,390 because if the market's gonna persist as a neutral digestive state, it's gonna top out around here. And that's the best thing to do. And the next best thing to do would be what we call a buy DP reversal where, hey, the market's gonna probe lower and it's gonna break out to the downside. It won't be able to hold that breakout and start trading back above 25,430. And a producer reversal, more likely to get a rally back into the middle or even back up to the upside pivot. So that's what we call a reversal strategy. So these are kind of the optimal strategies for a neutral digestive state. Basically, with the expectation, the market's going nowhere. So these are, and these are the best strategies. They're not the only strategies. These are just the ones you'd bet big on. If we're getting a reversal strategy, absolutely participating in momentum to transition to the opposite side of the critical range, that's an opportunity. These are themes. So if a strategy theme comes into play early in the session and it's holding structure, holding price structure, markets, what's structure, market starts to trend, lower lows, lower highs, or higher highs, higher lows, you start to see some momentum and this is starting to fall through. That's a theme. And so you wanna align your tactics with that theme. Understanding the market's performed expectation. Now, if the market breaks structure, that's a different story. Now, all of a sudden, this isn't true. And this is real important. Your job as a trader is to identify what theme are we in? Are we in an optimal strategy theme or are we in a head strategy theme? And if we're not in an optimal theme, and the market's breaking structure, then this isn't true and we shouldn't hope or that our fade strategy is gonna work because the market's breaking structure. When the market's breaking structure, then we wanna execute a head strategy. And in this one, we're gonna buy a breakout above the R level. The market's gonna, if it's holding positive structure, it could be a powerful move because this is a shift in sentiment. The expectation would be that this breakout would be more powerful than a breakout to the downside just because where sentiment is. And this is where the energy of the market is. And so that's one of our head strategies. The other head strategy is what we call our sell DIR critical range breakout strategy where the market breaks out below the critical range and it can't get above the directional. So the directional becomes a real pivotal point and it's kind of like that is the market gonna continue to transition negative or we're gonna get bounce back above there and to confirm that we're going nowhere. And so that's what we call a head strategy thing when the market is transitioning from one state to the next. And these are definitely outright strategies as well as strategies, option strategies. So when the market is making a play for the upside pivot, what's the optimal theme to do is sell calls against the upside pivot. If we're making a play and we're getting that by deep reversal, we're selling puts at the downside pivot. And so you can use this structure for your strikes. And this gets into a little more insight into options analysis of what your expectations are and how you wanna play them. So let's pull up today's action in Bitcoin. So before we get into, so with the playbook, you're setting your stage. We have a couple of different integrations. This integration is with a charting platform called Sierra Charts. So I always like to take a look at the, in addition to the price structure, again, it's fact-based trading solutions. I know that this is the previous day's high, previous day's low, previous day's midpoint and previous day's close. So it gives me a sense of where is the price structure in relationship to the price action within the price structure, within the market structure. And so here, I know, we had this breakout above the previous day high, but it was going right into sentiment. And so that's, without market structure, without the definition of what the state is, here's the start of the session, market is trading around the midpoint, which is a good momentum level. So the market's making, immediately jumps higher, can't hold below it, which would be a transition done to test the previous day's low. We're stabilizing here within, we've got some good energy here because we've got the close and the midpoint kind of an alignment with the expectation, okay, we're gonna get a play for the policy, yesterday's high. We do, we take it out, that's positive. And the market gives us that positive push. But, if we take a look and we have sentiment in there, it kind of changes that story. You know, instead of getting super positive here, we know that this rally is gonna be challenged. And then when we take a look at the market structure of the state, we know that the market is in a neutral digestion. We know sentiment is at the upside pivot. And we know that that is one of our optimal strategies to fade. With the expectation, the market's at least gonna come back down to the directional. And then now we've got the market trading below the directional and threatening further losses. I do, you know, markets are real symmetrical. And I like, you know, looking at this market, taking out this previous day's high by, looks like a half APMD. I'm gonna put my minor levels in here. So let's say a half APMD. So taking out the low by half APMD, it's gonna come back, it's gonna come down into this area here. So I like looking at, you know, kind of symmetry like that of a failure. Maybe we get to symmetrical failure here in this structure too. So, so as I mentioned before, you know, so I did add some, what we call our minor critical range. So here's the critical range with the upside pivot, downside pivot. Then we have, you know, the validation points within this range. So these levels help manage a position. So as the market comes into our cell UP fade opportunity, we have these metrics. So we call this an alert distance and a variance. And so this is kind of the signal acceptance area. So if you're running a strategy, you wanna keep your signal acceptance within these boundaries and avoid kind of trading in the middle. That way you can really define your risk. And then in this situation, the market comes trades back down below the critical range positive level at 26,146. And it also is trading back under the previous days high. And then it can't get back above this metric barrier. So this is a sign that market's trending lower. This is a negative structure. You can look at this as a one big ladder. And so, and this price distance between major levels is what we call an average price map distance. So this is the expectation. So when you're getting into an opportunity here, your risk reward is based off of minimally this target. In a market that's in a neutral digestive state, this is definitely going to be a good momentum level. Is this market, is this just an event squeeze? And the market starts to build positive structure and starts to trade back up here. That would be a tell that, hey, maybe this thing's gonna transition through and we're gonna move to the upside. The fact that we rejected and we couldn't trade back above this metric is a negative signal here. This is what we would call an add-on trade. The market performs the expectation and then it pulls back to where you're trading here. Absolutely, this is a target. So if you're trading multiple units, you're definitely, this is, you're getting out of one of your exits here. You're getting out of your other exit here because the expectation of this market's going nowhere. So it's either we're looking for the market to settle around the directional, potentially make a play for the downside pivot. Right now it's telling you it's weak and this is on a daily basis again. We're looking at daily structure so we can take a step back later and look at the weekly structure. But we're in, so now we're in this theme and that's what's really important. That the market is performed to expectation in a sell you PFAD theme. It paid out one APMD. We're looking for it to pay out two APMDs, average price map distance. So it paid out one. We're looking for it to pay out two. So now, you know, even on a daily basis, you know, you've got the playbook, the state is neutral digestion. The structure is based on sentiment which is above the market, which was negative. The strategies, we're still, we're performed as a state. Optimal strategy theme is in play that sell you PFADs in play. And now we're taking a look at, you know, what's happening on the microstructure. So we know the market came down here and it tested the upper metric boundary of the CR minus. We're still off the previous days low. What's really evident right now is that 25,902 is our risk. So if we're managing this trade and whenever you come in to the session, you need to assume that you have that position on so that you get your mind right of really what's occurring because if you were here, this was your trade and what's happening now is how are you protecting that trade? You know, this trade is definitely wrong above here. And now the fact that the market failed here, if this momentum is gonna stay really negative, we could take a swing here and move it up but basically we're looking at this price structure here and this metric that this momentum should stay continue. So if we get a squeeze up to this area, that should be the high point if we're gonna continue lower. We don't need to and this price point is gonna be a big point. So now we can take a look at the order book and see what's happening here. This is a combined book. Let me, so here we have both combined books. We've got the coin-based cracking, bit stamp, bit the next book combined and we have the Binance, Bybit and OKX. So this is going to be a tether and this is going to be fiat. So we're keying off the directional, we're keying off the upper metric here. This is things I like to look at here is again, just it's a fact focus. So we have our VWOP and the VWOP coming in at the top of the directional metric boundary. You know, this is what I'm looking at is my risk. You know, if that sell UP phase is gonna fall through and we're going to get a play for the downside pivot, that's the expectation. It's interesting here where you're having, you've got some liquidity building up here at the top of that range with the VWOP. We can also see that the market likes this CR-level. We've got some resting paper going on here and we've got some big resting paper that's been here for a while down by the downside pivot. It's not really showing up on Coinbase and you know, this on the fiat, but it doesn't look like this book is really extending that much at all. But that gives you insight to, you know, if we do get a push down into this area and you're trading at the CR-, let me pull the, so this kind of situation here, if you're short the market and we're getting a play here, in the current microstructure, we've got some liquidity here. So, you know, absolutely this can be a situation where you're taking out these lows, you're pushing down into this area here, 25,666, and we could get, you know, a positive reaction. So this is, you know, you can use this as a tool. So if you're short and the market's playing in here, what you need to understand before it even gets here, what are you gonna do? Because you're vulnerable for this market to bounce right back up to here and it can happen really fast. And you have some liquidity support here that you might get something like that. Doesn't mean it's not gonna bounce and come back down, but do you know, where are you at? What's, you know, are you holding this thing for a longer period of time? Do you have a dinner to go to? What's up with your life? You know, do you wanna deal with that? Or do you wanna just take this money and say, hey, I'm gonna take another half APMD out of this, and I'm gonna give up that fact because I need to do something. Or I'm gonna get more aggressive on my position management. I might exit some here, and if the market fails here, I might press it because now, hey, maybe we are gonna get a flush. And so what we can take a look at on the what ifs is we can go to a higher timeframe. And that was the weekly outlook that I was mentioning earlier. And so here's our higher timeframe. Give you a sense of what this looks like. So, you know, then we can throw the daily on here so you can kinda see where things are playing out. And it's interesting that the previous week's low is actually down here. And we had real good alignment with the sentiment bias for the day and the previous week's midpoint. And so we had a market that, you know, basically rotated up, test the midpoint, and we know that if we're here, this market's vulnerable to come rotate down and potentially test this previous week's low. 2517 is gonna be the critical range extreme. So this is good alignment where if the market breaks out of the critical range, this is the validation point to the downside. This is the validation point to the upside. We call that a critical range positive, critical range negative extreme. And so this would be the more, if the market's going to produce a head fake, this is where the head fake will occur. And so that's something to be aware of. So we're at sentiment, markets in the sell UP fade theme, is it gonna fall through? If it does, we know that the other optimal theme is the buy DP reversal. So we're expecting the market to trade below here. And that comes into these levels here. So let me just, that's the weekly, final level. So the expectation would be that if the market's gonna continue to form expectation and we do get a flush, we could get an exhaustive signal within here. So you get the macro structure, you dial into the micro structure. If you're only dealing with the micro structure and you don't have the macro structure, you're blind. You need, this is, these are facts. So it's a statistical baseline. So when you know this, when you have this structure, one, you know your size management. You know where your risk is at. You know where you're wrong. You know where you're right. You can anticipate your exits. And that's what it's all about in trading. Anticipating opportunity. All right, so I know we went a little longer today. I had a mess up with the camera streaming. That's my bad. We'll be here again next week. We're gonna go over the long-term market outlook. Again, you know, our method is to incorporate a statistical outside view to help you slow down that decision-making process to minimize your biases. So we all have these cognitive biases. You know, we get anchored on a specific price point because we did so much work on it. We have that, we read something and it just says, hey, I'm a seller. That's my story, I'm sticking to it. And we need to really go through and dial in with what the facts are. Do the facts support that? And if they don't, you've got to question it. At the very minimum, you've got to dial your size back. And if they support it, then go big. Especially if they're at a good structure point. If they're not, then you have to have good size management, but that's the key. Anticipate opportunity with proper size management. That's money. If you haven't read it, I recommend this Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. You know, his quote, the outside view offers more accurate predictions than the inside view. What this is basically saying is that the statistical probabilities are more accurate predictions than your gut feel. Now gut feel matters. And gut feel can help you leverage up opportunities and make you excel beyond what a machine can do. But you need to have that statistical baseline to do it because that gives you your clear head. That gives you the truth so you can get into the flow. And that's when you trade the best. When you're in flow and you're in a state of flow, that's because your sentiment is in line with market sentiment. And when they're in conflict, that's when there's problems. So if you'd like to play around with our tools, come to DharmaCapital.trade, send it for a trial. You can also follow me on Twitter. We're posting updates, typically a little more longer term view. But if you are into day trading and if you're a book map subscriber, we have the integration and you can start playing around with it and just see how that works for you. Feel free to email me directly with any questions. Enjoy your day. Cheers.