 Hey, everybody, what's going on? I am Greg Sosman, joined today by Jim Sannis of Fandle, who's back to talk a little NASCAR. His choice, not mine. What's going on, Jim? I mean, it's our first like semi-regular race of the year because it's not a super speedway where there's super high variance, not a road course, where a guy could be leading and run off the track all by himself. So I'm excited for a little bit of normalcy for once this week and excited to get back to some foundational type NASCAR betting for this week. Then let's get into it. Let's start chatting here about the Dixie Vaca 400. And we'll talk about the guy that you want to at least place something on. That's Denny Hamlin, where, to me, just knowing how little I know about it, right? Usually, Denny Hamlin's at plus 500. That just seems too big of a number for Denny Hamlin, who's obviously a very good driver, no matter the track. Why is Denny Hamlin really five to one here? Yeah, usually I am not super inclined to bet a driver whose odds are as short as Hamlin's are for this week because there's a lot of weird stuff that can happen. There is still variance even at the non-superhigh variance track. So five to one, I've got to have a lot of confidence that that driver will be running up front and have a chance to win this race. And I think that with Hamlin, that's all in place for this week. And you look at the number there of five to one, it's there for a good reason. It's because he was tremendous on tracks like this and this exact track last year as well. He won at Homestead, the same track last year, also won in Kansas, and that's a similar track. It is a flatter one and a half mile track. There were six total races on those tracks last year. Hamlin won two of those again, including this one here. He had a top three average running position in both those races. And he also had a fourth place average running position in the second loss Vegas race, which took place during the playoffs. So we saw him three out of the six races on a flatter one and a half mile tracks, running up front, leading laps, contending for wins. I expect the same thing to happen here on Sunday, once again back at Homestead. Now, Hamlin, in the past, when he's run well on these tracks, has had to work his way through the pack. He won a race, I believe in Kansas, it was during the playoffs back in 2019, where he started the middle of the pack and he still led, you know, like 150 laps in that race. This time, that's not a concern. He's starting first. He is on the pole for this race. So it's easy access to laps led, easy access to the front of the pack, no weird strategy necessary to get him there. He's already there. So Hamlin, yeah, it's a shorter number that I usually want to bet for any track, but I think it's justified for this week for Hamlin. My win simulations have him winning the race, right in line with this number. So if you want to get action on one of the favorites for this race, my favorite route is via Hamlin. I think that that number is deserved. It's still potentially maybe a bit undervalued. So if you can find Hamlin at five to one, I'm inclined to take that number. It's interesting, you're on a different side here. I thought seeing Denny Hamlin five to one was actually big. You're pointing out that it's actually really small number and that's not something that you normally want to place a wager on here because it is so short. So we saw it a little bit differently. Obviously you're the expert. I trust you, Denny Hamlin, five to one, something worth considering here, I'm having a reason, over at the Fando Sportsbook. Another driver that you like to win here, Jim, is Ryan Blaney, who's 14 to one to win this thing overall. You explain why you were in on Denny Hamlin. Why Blaney? Yeah, my numbers for my model in NASCAR tend to like Ryan Blaney every time he is in the race. Even when he's not in the race, they'll probably still like him a little bit. But this happens every week. They say I should bet Ryan Blaney. It has not worked out yet. He hasn't really won that often in non-super speedway races last year, won in Talladega, won in 2018 on a road course. So tracks like this, we have not seen Blaney convert on the speed he has had. But the speed has been there. And at some point he's gonna close out one of these races and we're getting him at a discount at 14 to one because he has not been able to close out those far. But we know the speed will be there. Going back to last year, again, there were six races at flatter one and a half mile tracks. In those six races, Ryan Blaney had a top eight average running position every single time. He had a top five average running position in four out of the six races. And one of those was here in Homestead. In that race, he led 70 laps and finished third. Again, Denny Hamlin did win, but Blaney was a contender during that race, ran out front a bunch and could have potentially won that race as well. If you look at 11 total races at the one and a half mile tracks last year expanding beyond just the flatter ones, he had five top fives and nine top 10s. So he was consistently running at the front. If you look at the implied win odds at 14 to one, that's 6.7% but in my simulation, he wins 10.2% of the time. That's actually quite a bit of value for a driver at the top end of the odds board. Sure, that's because, you know, my winsons aren't baking in the narrative that Blaney can't finish out races, but he's a year more mature now. He's had more experience. He's in his second year with his new crew chief. I think that all adds up to potentially seeing some progression out of Ryan Blaney late in races. He was contending often last year, but if he takes that next step this year with his new crew chief being in place, I think we could see Blaney start to capitalize in the speed that he has and close things out for a win. So 14 to one, I think we're getting him at a discount because of that narrative that Blaney can't finish out wins. You know, kind of like the Tony Fee now or the Xander Shafley recently at NASCAR. I'd expect that to change in the very near future. So I want to gobble up Ryan Blaney at 14 to one, while I can still get him at double digit odds. Ryan Blaney, always a driver that's around the mix, but can't get past the finish line as the leader. You compare it to Tony Fee now as Xander Shafley in golf. We'll see what Ryan Blaney can do here this week and maybe he could break through. And Jim, you'll just keep pounding this number really until he does cross that finish line as the first driver that does. He's 14 to one here this week. We'll see if he gets the job done. One final driver to talk about, but we're not talking about him to win. You're betting on him to finish in the top 10. That's Matt DiBettadetto. He's plus 230 right now at the Fandal Sports Boat to finish inside the top 10. Why do you believe this is a good number? It's because DiBettadetto proved he was worthy of this number last year. Last year was his first year with Wood Brothers Racing, which is affiliated with Penske Racing teammates to Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, effectively. And he took advantage of the speed that they gave him on this track type. Again, six total races on this track type. DiBettadetto had three top fives. Those were his only top fives the entire season. So this was his best track type that he had and he converted that into quality runs. Now, sometimes that was because of pit strategy, but in order to win or to finish top three, which he did three separate times, you have to have a fast car. You have to be in position to capitalize on pit strategy and DiBettadetto did exactly that. It's also not as if pit strategy doesn't matter. Like being able to capitalize on that is certainly intriguing. If you better finish top 10, that's definitely a good number. Again, you finished in the top 10, four out of 11 races on one and a half mile tracks last year. That's a 36% rate. His implied odds here are at 30%. So I would actually take the over on 36% for him this year on the one and a half mile tracks. So getting him at 30% here, I think is advantage. Now the obvious counters that DiBettadetto is starting 37. So he has a lot of ground to make up here and that does matter for sure. But it's a long race, 400 miles. It is a trap where passing is relatively easy and we could see some pit strategy come into play for DiBettadetto once again. So really good on this track type, good equipment with Wood Brothers Racing and a guy I think is a bit undervalued in the betting markets in general. Not necessarily a guy I think who has the upside to win this race, but I do think he's very much in play for a top 10, especially if you're gonna give me plus 230 on the odds. Getting DiBettadetto at the highest number I think you have to do it. Plus 230, like you said, it's something you just simply don't wanna ignore. You're actually a track. DiBettadetto could be very, very successful. Just to finish the top 10, if not more, we'll see what he can do this weekend. That's gonna do it for us here at Fandal Hurryup. Jim, we appreciate the time and join the race. Thank you, Greg. I appreciate it. Have a fantastic weekend. Hopefully we can get you in on some NASCAR betting or some DFS here in the very near future. With March Madness coming up and then the Masters. My schedule is a little booked, but we'll see what happens ultimately. Especially tomorrow, where we'll join my time back here and talk about a little NBA DFS. Something I can tell you I'm much more interested in. For Jim Sannis, I am Greg Seltzer. Thanks so much for watching. Enjoy the race and we'll see you back here tomorrow for another edition of the Fandal Hurryup.