 Hello and welcome to the News Clicks Show, Mapping Fault Lines where today in one second we will be talking about the attack on Gaza, the assault on Gaza by Israel. The latest news of course is that a ceasefire has been declared after 11 days of intense bombing by Israel and counteractions by Hamas as well. The death toll has been quite horrific over 230. The destruction of infrastructure, the injuries, the number of people that have been displaced, all this has been a substantial and it's going to take a lot of resources, a lot of effort and time to rebuild for the Palestinian families which have been affected. So today we're going to be talking about the situation on the ground, the impact of the region and related issues we have with us, Prabir Burqai. So even last time we talked about the possibility that you know how long would this conflict last because Israel clearly had some goals while entering this conflict and it defied for a long time the calls for ceasefire by the international community and of course even calls for ceasefire by the US. So how do we see the accepting by Israel of this ceasefire right now at this point? So in terms of how do we see the situation on the ground? You know the key question always was what was Israel going to invade Gaza militarily and that is something that they it appeared at one point they were planning to do but they somehow backed off. Now did they actually just make motions of doing it for some ulterior motives as a claim or they were really in a mood to attack Gaza and physically destroy parts of it really increasing the slaughter much more or was it simply a ploy to keep the pressure on? We don't know but the reality is that at the moment Israel's ability to enter Gaza has decreased considerably. We saw that in 2014 that the first day they entered Gaza they suffered the military suffered serious losses and that included senior commanding officers as well. So I think this has shown that increasingly physically entering Gaza is something that Israel cannot do and that changes the military equation in the in this conflict. The second part and again that's a takeaway which the Hamas will benefit from is the fact that in the first time the bubble of Tel Aviv was also threatened and the citizens had to scurry in the shelters and this happened not only in Tel Aviv but also in other major cities of Israel. So what was essentially a local phenomena limited to areas within say 5 to 10 kilometers of the Gaza border extended to the almost entire Israel and all its cities. So all of this shows that though it's an extremely asymmetric war it's the damage destruction casualties are far more on the side of the Gazans than Israelis. The fact is that Gaza can inflict some damage disrupting the normal life in Israel itself makes it you know makes it not equal but changes the equation in favor of Gaza. Now let's look at also the numbers you're talking of really the the the best military in West Asia supposedly at least has the best arms has nuclear weapons. It is refurbished every time it expenses munitions in Gaza by the United States immediately they have offered 700 odd million dollars of intelligent munitions which is really precision munitions so that it can attack the AP buildings and the Al Jazeera stations if they rebuild it over there. So all of this goes to show that the battle is really one sided in in terms of what the military power each side holds but the fact that Gaza can inflict damage they've increased their range of their crude rockets which are really pipes filled with some fuel and some munitions but the range has increased what was earlier about 10 to 15 kilometers now go over to about 200 to 250 kilometers. Now that's a huge change if they can if they can add intelligence to it guided designs or even of a crude variety that will also mean weakening the iron road protection that Israel now has which gives it 90 percent ability ability to shoot down 90 percent of the designs that are likely to land into in populated areas. So the fact that Gaza can inflict damage it's only two billion population it's a it's a small packed place where all the you know 50 percent unemployment destruction at a massive scale each time this kind of wars takes place but the fact that it can still inflict damage makes it difficult for Israel to do what it does in the West Bank which is inflict punishment on any population which is restive which wants to protest by destroying their homes putting the people in jail battering them physically and so on it's completely one sided over there but the fact that there is some resistance over here in military terms means the equation has changed and each time that this conflict emerges again and again as it has now three times so if as it emerges again and again the equation will continue to change and I think that's something which makes Hamas a much more important force in Palestine and it's not just in Gaza but also in the other occupied Palestine territories and that equation means Fatah which at least had the leading voice in the Palestinian community is now going to see a serious challenge from Hamas a more militant challenge which will then force the equation to change also in the occupied West Bank. So I think this is not something which is changed in favor of Israel in fact each time the war erupts whatever damage Gaza or Palestinians take I think equation changes in two ways one it changes in Israel to the right which we now can see further and further but it's also changing the Palestinian issues bringing forth Palestinian issues to the fore and I think that's a very important change that we have to now recognize after this particular limited 11-day war. Absolutely Prabir so in this context I also want to take a look at the regional context because we have seen quite a few developments over the past one to two years you've seen the Abraham Accords where Israel with the help of the US has signed deals with some of the countries the UAE for instance we've seen of course the consolidation of the US-led alliance and the Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt all these parties becoming much closer to each other so how do we see the regional situation after this conflict because Egypt of course has been involved in the ceasefire but how do we see the role of the various players? See one thing is to recognize that Abraham Accords are virtually dead it's not that United Arab Emirates and Saudis were not playing footsie with Israel for all this time they were so it was a physical open acceptance that we are in bed with Israel that was the Abraham Accords but the fact that they also have to recognize that Jerusalem is an issue that changing the demography of Jerusalem attack an al-Aqsa mosque Haram al-Sharif those are things which none of these countries can take and say that's okay that's something to do with us so I think that Abraham Accords will change the record that Israel is the dominant power in the area can do what it pleases in Palestine Palestinian question is now gone completely on the back burner all of these things have changed also because of this limited engagement war whatever we want to call it in Gaza so I think that is a major issue that how will the larger west Asian map look like politically after this limited war that is taking place in Gaza and I think increasingly the Palestinian question will not be on the back burner as it has been and therefore the those who signed the Abraham Accords thinking that Palestine question is not going to be at the forefront and the Israelis are able to handle it and therefore we can face a near normalcy and go ahead with what we are doing I think that's going to come into question increasing already we can see stirring in Jordan have taken place before all of this now how will it affect the population in the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Saudi Arabia is a crucial issue now United Arab Emirates doesn't have much population so we can forget about that but Saudis do they have a fairly large population basis in large country and it has a monarchy it really does not have it's not a nation in the strict sense of the term because the people do not feel a part of the nation it's really a princely state it's a kingdom of Saudi Arabia as it calls itself because the king who represents Saudi Arabia not his people so all these things are now possible that they will be in the mix so what we see is increasingly that you will you will see multipolar forces emerge in West Asia you will see Turkey becoming a player it already is you will see Iran is a player it already is and of course the Saudis and Emirates are there but you also have players like Qatar and they are they represent muslim brotherhood which again is what Turkey is at the moment Turkey said the gun is essentially muslim brotherhood so you have these forces in the region which are not going to be led by one hegemon as it was earlier which was the united states so you are really increasingly going to see regional arrangements come in and the fact that Egypt negotiated the ceasefire and not united states in fact the united states main role was to block any attempt of ceasefire coming from the united nations it calls the rule based global order the world order but here was the rule based global order protagonist supposedly the united states stopping a unanimous resolution in the united nation security council by virtue of its veto that was the threat that if you try to move the resolution and veto it and the stop to three times before finally Egypt negotiated unconditional ceasefire so i think those are increasing signs that united states sway in the region is going to decrease regional forces are going to come into the forefront much more Iran turkey are more important players in this it's not just the Emirates and the Saudis and increasingly you will see that the Palestinian question the question of Jerusalem cannot be buried as it has been for us and then on this it's really the Palestinian population in occupied territories including within Israel that has brought this agenda back onto the table thank you so much for talking to us that's all your time for today keep watching you