 it is my privilege and pleasure to have teddy keg sat come on he's the author of the tiger forex report the brilliant author of the the report and i'd like to say teddy i think that we're real close to either breaking support levels or continuation patterns in the currencies i'd love to hear your opinions hi good morning basil uh great to see you this morning uh yeah the currencies right now and the people who are definitely uh following the tiger forex report must be really happy with the uh levels that we've hit over the past uh day or so and especially where we're at and we've definitely are on a pinnacle point right now as far as whether the trend is going to accelerate or are we going to possibly get a correction uh so yeah absolutely we can i can walk you through from the dollar index through a bunch of currencies or if there's something you want to highlight um well let me know could we could we start off with it with a dollar index since it's already very important absolutely absolutely all right so let me put this uh i'll pull the dixie i got it all right so yesterday um we hit our upside target number one around 105 93 we spiked above it we settled above it now we're trading below it um the way that if we were to settle right now let's say that now it was a 315 and the stock market closes and we were done for the day if the markets were to settle where they're at right now that would have us pretty much set up for at least i would say a short term correction of three to five days as far as economic numbers that we need to worry about we really don't have much until we have tomorrow we have the uh existing home sales and obviously jobless claims um if jobless claims trend lower um which obviously unemployment has been trending lower which something the fed does not want to have um and existing home sales too that's a number that probably may give a little bit of a shake up to the market now i can't i'm not going to say which way that number is going to go with that i i don't have any foresight or on that but if it does shake up the bonds in the 10-year that would solidify a correction potentially for the us dollar meaning that if the numbers come out you know we've been trending uh in an inflationary way if the numbers come out at least not inflationary or helping to fuel the current trend in interest rates which is higher yields and we get a short term bounce which is very potential to happen at least for a few sessions that would probably mean that we'll have a pullback in the dollar index which means the euro the pound and many other currencies will have a short term i'm not saying that they're going to trend and reverse against the dollar right now but i think that there's a good chance we could have a bounce and if you want me to give you some levels with certain currencies we can totally hit it um go over those because i'm really happy with the levels that we've hit um over the past session or two okay fire away let's let's go there okay all right so we talked about the dollar index and you know that like i said is if we were to close right now for the session i would say right now that that would mean that we would indicate that we would have a pullback so let's look at the uh the the bonds are also like i said reflection of that so we'll look at the euro us dollar which is the major component of the dollar index now the dollar index like i said is showing that potential signal the euro without a doubt if it was to close right now where it's at right now i think you would have follow through for the next three to five sessions regardless it could hit 107 i'm sorry could it hit 107 absolutely because we fell through 107 13 was the bottom of the critical support band that we had in the tiger forex report we fell through that on friday now we've been trendy we traded a little bit lower we made a lower move low over the past two sessions today we didn't make a lower move low we are actually almost taking out the hot we're just below the high of yesterday so yesterday the way we only settled a little bit lower than the open it almost like a doji bottom and now with today you have a bullish and golfing line forming off of yesterday's doji bottom if we were just like i said once again if we were to settle right now on the day it would indicate that the us dollar we should be in retreat for at least three to five sessions especially because with the euro making a move like today and especially if it closes or takes out the high of yesterday i mean that that's a that's a key reversal shift in momentum now does that mean the trend is going to change absolutely not i'm not trying to call a bottom in the market we're just made a lower move low i'm just saying that we're looking to have a swing high up or swing up to a lower move high at the very least okay so that's for the euro now let's get to the pound which is another big one in the dollar index so we have the pound which also came into our downside correction zone yesterday it has the same thing it's forming a bullish and golfing line as well if it does that that also is another indicator so you have your two key components of the dollar index that are going to give you signals like i said i'm not going to say i don't know how the market's going to close five six hours from now we could be making new lows on the day you know but if we were to close right now once again that is confirming the same thing that's really significant thing is the us dollar chf which i've talked to tommy about over the past couple of weeks how it's been trending higher where the other currencies like the euro and the pound have been chopping they've been grinding lows and what have you but they haven't been trending like like as fiercely as the dollar um swiss has the dollar swiss capped out a couple days ago and yet and on monday it finally touched our extended upside target and it's been plateauing like it's really buffering up a ceiling and now these other currencies are swinging off of these lows or highs you know depending on the relationship with the dollar and the swiss is just going like this sideways so that tells me that we are indefinitely in a good we have a good chance of having a correction once again for the us dollar versus most currencies are you going to have a severe correct you'd be talking like a breather in other words just a kind of relief from the move to to to regain strength is that really what you're saying yes absolutely yeah i see that as well okay good yeah especially because if you look at the 30 year and the 10 year we're coming off the lows and we're making a nice correction now set up for today but you gotta look at the pricing we're trading at levels we haven't seen since november of last year we're almost near the lows which means the high in yields you know i mean people were looking for the for the for the cuts they're not coming anytime soon i couldn't believe how many people would say that oh no rates are coming down rates are coming down well it doesn't look like it well it hadn't up until today and today you've got a little bit of a pullback in the tbt so i can see a pullback from tbt 3733 to test maybe the 3680s maybe 3650 but if it breaks under that it maybe it'll last a little longer right right and and that's why you know i like i've been talking to tommy about how we have to look at the the fundamentals where they're going on right now you know i mean are we going to sustain is a trend sustainable with where things are going right now probably not but i think is what we're doing is we've we're establishing we've already established a ceiling we know where the the floor is maybe you know now if if the talks about um raising rates actually start to come up back on the table obviously we're going to take out the lows of last year you know yields are going to go much higher you know and that is very possible if unemployment stays low inflation keeps going up which i mean oil with where it's at right now i mean come on now if oil starts gets up stays if it stays where it's at right now for the next three to four months you can't tell me inflation is not going to be rolling into the numbers you know titty we've got a break i don't know if you have time do you have time for just one more segment before we get as we go into the close i'd like to i'd like to just today is titty gets that and we're looking at titty i just had a question for you one of the reasons why i want you to keep over the break is you mentioned the tenure the tnx the way i've got the tnx at this particular point i'm looking at tremendous strength in the technicals i don't want to go through the technicals i use the 914 period moving average you use the mac d the regular strength index is stochastic at 89 percent but what do you see i mean in the short term and the medium term in the tenure in the tenure actually it's great question right now because i've been watching the spreads especially the two in the five year notes you know i mean when it comes to the trending in yields the the long term obviously drives the trend in the long term but the short term is what drives things in the short run and that's where you have to when you see the spreads how they move and the thing that's really i've noticed especially between the tenure the five year and the two year is that they're leading they're leading the charge you know and and i think that as the third year continues to follow with them that you're going to see especially like the tenure lead that charge you know and that's and especially with all the refinancing that needs to be done and and that's the thing that i think people don't look at when they look at yields they look at just like oh there's a 30 or there's a 10 years a five years a two year they don't look at the dynamics of what those individual note structures and structures mean and mechanically you know the reality is is that when rates were much lower our banks and our federal reserve financed a lot of stuff with short-term interest rates that's a big problem instead of having long-term debt when you're no matter what you have debt you have a certain debt level for any company or business or or definitely our government obviously because we have a national debt you want to finance that at low rates why would you have funded our government and also the banks why would they fund and hedge themselves with short-term rates especially when they knew rates were going up with a federal reserve it said we're raising rates you know now we've come into this conundrum the short-term is leading that charge because they know of all the refinancing that has to be done done where are you going to get the liquidity can i just ask you i know we're running out of time and i know that you've got this wealth of information what is the level on the team on the on the tnx the tenure trading at 46.28 right now what's the level that you think it will go even lower so that yields will go higher uh off the top of your head i think i think you have every bit of two to four handle basis points down that you can go depending on the economic numbers so i would say every