 Hey guys, it's Nate, AKA The Foot Accountant. Welcome back to the channel. The time has come, all right? It is that time inside of FIFA 21 Ultimate Team. We're nearing Black Friday, and the market is crashing. People know what is coming, and every single year they sell before it happens, at least the past couple of years. And we have this thing called the Black Friday Market Pre-Crash, which is exactly what we were happening and seeing right now in this game. It's crazy. Some of the price drops that we've seen, I want to talk about what is happening, why this happened, and what could happen in the next couple of weeks as we actually head into the promo. We're still like two weeks away from Black Friday, but it's all the preparation beforehand, which makes a lot of the prices go down, because people think, hey, prices are going to go lower, but everybody actually sells ahead of time, and most cards really go and hit their lowest, especially if it's a very meta and OP card, as we have learned in the past few years. They hit their lowest point before Black Friday actually comes because people start buying them back for their teams once they hit a low point, and then when the day actually comes out, so many people are actually thinking about buying those cards specifically. So let's talk about Black Friday, and especially what is just going on in the game today. Now, of course, a lot of this panic started early on Saturday because late in the night on Saturday, we saw a huge drop on the market because of a leaked pack code. I guess the pack code was leaked or shown for this team of the week upgrade SVC, and we know how this goes almost every single time it is released in FIFA. We know what happens, right? People think they're going to pack the Rashford. They think they're going to pack the Messi. They think they're going to pack those types of players, but actually what happens is all that panic selling happens, they don't pack those cards, some of those cards rebound, but a lot of coins are still drained off the market because this SVC is not very expensive to complete, but it does cost you 20,000 coins, about to do. 83s are not really high right now. They didn't rise up too much after the SVC was actually released. 83s are still around 1.6, 1.7K for most of them. Now those might rise up a little bit. People might stock a few of these up or continue to do these because these are out, but this is what caused the first part of the crashing today, and then of course, what I talked about earlier this weekend was since I was a little bit scared about the lack of buyback and a lack of buying power that we saw, lack of motivation to buy cards Friday night after the new promo drop and then after the new content drop, that to me signaled that we were headed down really far this weekend. And as you can tell right now, not many people are even selling cards or listing cards on the market. 2.8 million live transfers, I think is pretty low for the PlayStation, even though we're in like the dead of night. That seems pretty low to me. So I think what a lot of people did today was they literally just sold cards. And that's why you saw all these prices get really, really low. A lot of people were selling today because they were in the mindset that you wanted to sell your cards before Black Friday actually happens and before it comes out, so that you save yourself some coins and you'll be able to buy those cards cheaper as we get closer. But in fact, as we saw today with some of these price drops, they were so massive. I was actually telling some people to buy some cards today, right? This Mbappe card dropped from 1.55 mil about a week and a half ago all the way down to 1.33. He was 1.33 mil, he's up about 30,000 coins and I think it makes sense. Ronaldo is under 1.4, Neymar is at a million coins flat. And again, we'll talk about this stuff a little bit in this video and what I've been talking about on stream earlier today is just that some of these cards that are super meta, super high rated, they're not gonna get packed that much and the majority of their price drop comes from all this panic selling. I wanna talk about as well is does the market go lower today on Sunday and will we see our normal Sunday night into Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday market rise with squad battle rewards and most people knowing that hey, I need to buy my team in that time period. So we'll talk about that a little bit as well. But again, the biggest thing today that really dropped this market was this team of the week upgrade and just the panic that we saw in that, right? If we take a look at some team of the week cards from today's stuff that was kind of bouncing up down crashing on the market, where's Firmino? Firmino's a decent example. I actually bought a Firmino today in the market crash before 6 p.m. UK, before the SBC was released, bought this card at 205,000 coins like right here. He bounced back to 220 and I didn't sell right away. So I actually had to only sell for like 215. But there was some of this action today, right? There was some panic selling and then a rebound. Rashford was another great example. His inform was down to like 630,000 coins, sorry, 730,000 coins on the PlayStation and he bounced back. He went, yeah, went down to 738 and he bounced back to 777.80. So not a huge bounce back on a lot of stuff but that's often what you see with a repeatable SBC like sometimes the base icon or mid icon SBCs or other team of the week upgrade packs. When they come out, what you see is people sell because they know it's coming, they panic sell because they think they're gonna pack the card and then they have to go buy that card back when they don't pack it. That's why you saw a bit of a rebound on some of these. But the rest of the market is still going down, right? The rest of the market is still going down. We could look at all the indexes. We could look at all the prices. This popular page I'm flipping, somebody described it earlier today as a bloodbath and I think that is 100% correct. So let's talk about if you have a Neymar and Bape, Veran, Sun, Metacard or maybe a Joe Gomez, maybe somebody like Martial, maybe somebody like a Ben Yetter in your team or Lucas or Dembele, what do you do in those different scenarios? Because it's almost, it's a lot different thinking about some of these low tier cards versus some of the high tier cards. How much more panic selling can happen? Are they almost at their lowest? Should you sell now? Should you buy now? For most of this stuff right now, I would not recommend selling. If it's a card that you have in your team, right, that you are gonna be trying to sell to then buy back at a hopefully cheaper price in two weeks from now around Black Friday. Like if it's a card that you have in your team, like right now, let's say that you have Kylian and Bape in your team, you bought it for like 1.45 million coins for this weekend league, right? And right now you're like, dude, my Kylian and Bape is down 100,000 coins. I'm losing 100K right now if I sell this card. My advice to you would be, why would you sell this card right now for 1.35 million where he is basically at his lowest that he's been since the beginning of the year? Why would you sell it now if there's really not much of an opportunity for him to go that much lower because the people that have this card, this guy isn't getting packed by pack supply, right? He's getting packed a little bit, but not that much. Most of the price drop that you saw today was just people clearing out their clubs and clearing out their teams because they think prices are going lower. But in reality, for some of this really high meta stuff, it might not. This might be the lowest couple of days that we see before Black Friday because with all the people that sold these cards today, I don't even know how many of Bapis are still left in people's squads. I don't think there's that many because so many people sold them today. They took the cash on a lot of these cards. So I was even telling people, what was it on Xbox and on PlayStation? Like 1 million coins flat for Neymar was a price that popped up plenty often today. Right now it's 1.018 and on the Xbox, I think he was about 830,000 coins. I think that's a buy. I honestly think that was a buy for Neymar today. I think in Bapé and the low 1.3s is a buy as well. Christiane Ronaldo in the 1.38 range, 1.37. Maybe a little bit lower than that if you can. On the PlayStation is a buy as well. Those are a couple of cards that right now with all the panic-tilling and the percentage point of a drop off that we have seen today, I'm fine with you guys buying them because this is the other thing that I wanna talk about, right? If you look at some graphs like last year, or if we look at some graphs from last year on a guy like killing in Bapé, correct? Let's talk about this. So this is one thing I wanna make a point about Black Friday as well is that some of these cards, even though they're super-duper hyped and super meta, we're gonna have content that comes a week or two weeks after Black Friday that is probably going to make this market fall down even further because Footmiss, that's a huge coin drain promo, right? Team of the group stage last year killed the market. Team of the year nominees. All that stuff in December, it was one huge landslide. If we look at all these graphs in December, which we'll look at in a bit, or right even here you can see, December was one huge landslide of a month where cards kept dropping into Team of the Year because of all the content that was coming out and that's probably gonna, it could happen again this year, so. But again, what I wanna show you here is, look at this in Bapé card, right? So in Bapé last year, three weeks before Black Friday was 1.1 mil, he peaked there. First week in League of Sell-Off with the first promo of Road to the Final, right? He drops down to one million coin, drops down 150K, and then boom, the next weekend, he drops down again another 100,000 coins from one mil to 900K. His lowest point, I remember it specifically, in FIFA 20, was on that Saturday. He was actually under 900,000 coins on that Saturday on the PlayStation. And then of course, during that week of Black Friday, he went from 9.15 back to 9.40 and then peaked the weekend after Black Friday, almost at a million coins, so. And then the week after that he was 8.80 again. So you really didn't save yourself that many coins by buying this early because of the drop-off that happened, but we're not worried about that yet. What I wanna just talk about again is, instead of trying to buy always at the absolute lowest price, it's gonna be so hard for you to be on the market to try to time when the absolute lowest price is for any of these cards that you may want to buy to upgrade your team or to put in your team around the Black Friday timeframe, whether that's because you're getting fever points to open on packs or whether you're just waiting for the market to drop more so that you can buy players at a lower price than what they were before. If you really try to get that absolute lowest, lowest price, you're gonna go crazy and it's almost impossible to do that. You're gonna be waiting on it so long, you might miss the buy time, you might be too early on the buy time, stuff like that. So what I recommend doing is buy in the low dip, right? Not on the absolute lowest of the lows, but buying in that low dip will save you and will make sure that if you're buying in that low dip, especially if it's a meta card, right? Like one of these Mbappes, one of these Neymars, a Veran, a Conte, 360K for this dude, cheap, Ronaldo, cheap, Mane, cheap, De Bruyne under 200K, ridiculously cheap, right? Buying in the low, right? In the low dip and not at the absolute lowest point is one thing that you can do and one concept that you can keep in your mind that will save you some stress, honestly, and save you a lot of questioning and a lot of wondering and thinking through things on this game, right? Kevin De Bruyne right now, 190,000 coins, right? I talked about Mbappe, Neymar and possibly Ronaldo being buys right now in this game. This card is probably a buy in my opinion too, right? Really high rated cards that people really want for their teams. Now this De Bruyne has kind of just been dropping all year and I just wonder if it's people would rather use other cards in this game that have higher amounts of pace than De Bruyne. So this might not be the best example, but let's use Mbappe for our example, man. This Mbappe card is literally, this is the best card in the game, right? This Mbappe card has not been 1.3 mil since day one Friday, 1.3 million coins. Went to 1.4, went to 1.5 and has been trickling upwards around 1.5 ever since. Now he's back down to 1.33, right? This would be in that low. I honestly think this is in that low. I don't know how much panic selling there is left to go around on guys like Mbappe, Neymar, Ronaldo, Conte would be another one. The really high tier meta, meta, meta players. Van Dyke would be one that I'd possibly say there might not be much panic selling left. Messi is interesting because he is out of packs right now, but I still feel like this card, you know, it's dropped off a lot today. I feel like you might be able to get this in a 500K range though. You might be able to get this under 600K just because there's not as much hype this year for Messi, but for some of these really top tier meta cards, I would not be opposed to some of you guys if they're high rated and if they're meta to be buying them this weekend, to be buying them on this Saturday night into Sunday where the market is just so stinking low. So just keep your eyes on some of that stuff. If a price makes sense to you, seeing this Neymar out of million coins, you used to think, yeah, this guy was 1.1 mil, and now you see him at one mil, down 100,000 coins, if you wanna make that, if you wanna pull that trigger for your team, be my guest. Now if it's a lower rated card, right? Like a Joe Gomez, or even a little bit of a Ferlan Mendi, I talk about this, or I talked about Lucas Mora or Ben Yetter, these types of cards, yes, they're very OP, yes, they're very meta, but they're also very low rated and they're gonna get hammered with pack supply and that's what this Black Friday promo is, it's the first lighting rounds of the year, pretty much. So some of these lower rated cards are gonna get smashed with supply as well and then that's gonna be tough to come back from. Some of these cards might rebound a little bit, but that first couple hours of the pack supply that actually happens on Black Friday as well for the low rated cards is deadly, it's huge on the market. So again, I can show you guys like Cisoco as well. This is the FIFA 19 version of Musa Cisoco, a card that was 50,000 coins before Black Friday came around, right? He dropped down from 51,000 coins, went back up to 33, and then Black Friday comes around and he's dropping, dropping, dropping. This is the actual day of Black Friday right here. He drops off a cliff from 12,000 coins and then over the next couple of days, he's down to 8,000. Even being as meta of as a card as he is, he dropped down that much in that week. He did rebound a slight bit, but just be careful with low rated cards like an Alfonso Davies gold card would be somebody who I would say be very careful with. Now, Ferland Mendy last year, I've got his graph up. This is FIFA 20, Ferland Mendy. He got panic sold all the way down a couple of days before Black Friday happened and he shot back up, but this is still the best left-back card in the game. The 83 rated, he's gonna be less packable this year. So just on some of these cards, if you haven't sold your cards yet and if you were gonna buy them back for your team, my advice to you is why sell? Why would you sell if it's already dropped off so much? Now for other cards that you maybe are wanting to buy for your team, if you're liquid right now and you're like, yo, when's the best time to buy because I've got my coins and I wanna buy the team. If it's a lower rated card, like maybe Pogba, Martial, Fernandez, Van Dyke, not Van Dyke, but some of the lower rated cards, I do feel like you could see a little bit more of a drop on some of the stuff that's not as super meta in the coming days. So maybe you hold off on buying some of that stuff right away because I feel like those prices will maybe continue to stay lower longer than a guy like Mbappe, Neymar, or Ronaldo would just because there's more demand for those and they're less common on the market, less common to find and to pack and to buy up, so there's less supply. And then same things for out of pack special cards, I would wait on some of those as well. One of the big things that comes with Black Friday is the best of team of the week. So obviously if you're somebody who wants messy inform for your team, obviously this guy is really cheap for this stage in the game. 1.45 mil, so he's actually really, really low at the moment, but this guy could possibly go even lower in the next two weeks and in the panic selling leading up to Black Friday because he is gonna be possibly re-released back into packs and that's what a lot of people are gonna be expecting for a card like this. A high rated inform, another guy that could be in best of team of the week might be 86 Rashford, 89 Bruno Fernandez, right? Some of the higher rated informs that are the most meta in this game could be re-released as a part of that Black Friday promo and that is something that could drop those prices even more. So again, what I would do right now is if you see prices tonight, now we'll talk about out of packs cards again here for a second, this video is gonna go a bit longer, it is what it is, there's just a lot to talk about. So again, I mentioned Sunday night which is tonight, squad battle rewards. I think there are some of these special cards, rule breakers, maybe some of the road to the finals, maybe some out of packs informs that these guys have absolutely just dropped off a cliff today as well. There is a possibility that some of these cards still rise up into the Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday timeframe because people are just used to buying their teams and all the people, think about all the people that just sold off their teams from this weekend league, they're seeing these low prices and some people are just gonna buy the cards back because they're gonna realize, hey, this is getting low and I just wanna buy it back for my team because I wanna use this card and it's low enough that I'm happy with the price. So you might see a bit of bounce back on some out of pack specials from tonight into Monday, Wednesday, I do think that is possible. If you're gonna see a bounce back in any area specifically, definitely watch these rule breaker cards because they are super duper rare, they are super duper hyped up, a lot of people like to use these and some of these guys' drop offs are, they're literally mental, right? La Porte was 520K, he's now 455, Andre was 100,000 coins Friday night, he's now 78, Douglas Costa, some of these cards are lower than what they were when they were in packs, for goodness sake. Like this card linking to the player of the month, Levadosky, that could come out any time, he was never under 400,000 coins when he was in packs and the dude is under 400,000 coins right now. So just keep an eye on some of the stuff. If you wanna try a little bit of a quick flip, that is something you could do. These cards as well, wow, Griezmann bounce, he's 550, Rashford's up a bit, Zakaria's up a bit. Some of these cards have started to bounce a little bit, some people are investing in these row to the finals, team one. Out of packs and because we're gonna be having these cards with Champions League games on the horizon that same week of Black Friday, there's gonna be more eyes turned towards these and these are gonna be very rare items. So if you see more price, like if Griezmann goes back to 510, 500K, that could be another buy point, Klosterman like 320 or under, you could have another flipping possibility with some of these row to the finals as well. But honestly boys, what I would do right now is if you're trying to make coins inside of this game, you can trade with these special cards. You can expect a little bit of a bounce back. These cards are still going to fluctuate, right? We'll take a look at my transfer target at the moment. We were watching a lot of Ones to Watch cards today as well. I think I actually have a Leroy Sanay on my transfer list. These Ones to Watch are gonna bounce around as well. I know we have international games over the next couple of days, so that means multiple games for the multiple nations that are playing. So just keep an eye out, yeah, 3-3-30? How much is Sanay right now? Is Sanay actually 3-38? Is that the lowest one? 3-38's about to expire. I think I bought one for 3-33 earlier today. I don't know if he went lower than that, but just watch these OTW cards because this could be a way that you trade in the next coming days as well. Whoa, Sanay was in the three teams. He was 317,000 coins, so he's bounced back already. But Germany, I think, has another game on Tuesday. Monday or Tuesday, they have another game, so like, Wales is playing. There's a lot of Ones to Watch cards that have games, so keep an eye on that sort of stuff. That could be somewhere where you flip some cards in the coming days just because of, that's kind of what's going on, and that'll be an option. Wow, Leroy Sanay is back to 3-44 just like that, so these really meta cards that are OTWs, you can still see fluctuations on this week as well. It's a scary time to be on the marker right now, right? And this is what I would tell you, don't be too scared if you're trying to flip icons or out-of-pack specials because they will still fluctuate around a decent amount. People can't sit on their coins forever. People are going to be buying some of these cards for their teams. They're gonna be trying cards out because the prices are so cheap, they're gonna get interested in it, so just be careful with that. And I still think you see a little bit of a drop off on some of the rest of the market, possibly next Friday. We could have some big content coming, and that's not a leak or anything, it's just possible that we could have some big time content coming. So we'll talk about that as the leak does, or as the week does move on. We're gonna have a lot more specific tailored Black Friday videos coming this week looking at what happens to special cards, what happens to gold cards, icons, and all sort of stuff like that because Black Friday is a big time where a lot of coins are injected on the market and some stuff flies after Black Friday. So we'll talk about that as well, but of course you guys know what's happening right now. The market's crashing, it's in shambles, but you know what, we freakin' move, we're still gonna make coins, and it's gonna be fun when we find that low time to buy cards, buy our teams up if you wanna do that, or just invest for a rise after Black Friday, and it's gonna be a good time. So if you did enjoy this video, smash the thumbs up on it, comment down below if you have any questions, and subscribe to the channel if you're new. It's been Nate the Foot Accountant, catch you guys later, peace out.