 Okay, it is Tuesday the 30th of March. I hope you're doing well and use your briefing to get your underway for the day ahead and Overall this morning bit of a continuation of where we left things last night In fact, we did see yesterday the 10-year Treasury yield in the US rise to 1.74 percent And the five-year yield moving to the highest it's been in a year So subsequently the dollar just holding on to some of the gains that we've seen yesterday Albeit the Dixie relatively unchanged But generally speaking then that high yield environment is weighing on Delights of the US 10-year and also gold prices. So just a quick look there As you can see yesterday quite a meaningful move here In fact for T-notes having been rejected on three occasions on the upside around that 130 209 level This was through the course of really last week And I'd say the rationale here really is a combination of a few things we're going to discuss Namely that is the speed of which The US administration is aiming to get around 90 percent of us adults Allegable for a vaccine shop in a very short period of time three weeks As they continue at a pace to roll that out and obviously this is Irrespective of the fact that Covid cases have actually gone up for a second consecutive week in the US But it also came amid some positive news In regard to Pfizer and Moderna as well, which will as I say, we'll we'll delve into those headlines But so generally positive vaccine information We've obviously got a speech coming up tomorrow where Biden's going to outlay further plans on his infrastructure stimulus Which again is going to be sizable kind of three trillion dollar plus And so that's just getting yours moving higher again for the time being And and very much so that Archer costs the US hedge fund news which kind of did dominate quite a lot of the media Yesterday hasn't really reverberated across the broader market seems very much isolated to just that specific unique Hedge funds positioning in certain individual stocks and the associated banks and prime brokers that were dealing with them specifically Rather than out into the broader market and any type of contagion effect of liquidation of positions hasn't Materialized so yours moving higher. Yeah, technically as we do drift down here Probably just keeping an eye then at those lows. We were seeing Back on the 18th 19th. We're pretty much there at the moment that would constitute the 130 one handle Looking on the daily then we have dropped back through and we're remaining below that key kind of area in the 10 year that was resistance back At the end of 2019 the beginning of 2020 and where we've just we've dropped below before so Does mean that technically it keeps the pressure on Undoubtedly going forward despite the slight reprieve that we've had Recently in yields ultimately with global growth set to pick up sooner Or later at some point then it's almost inevitable that yields will continue to push higher and so Um, ultimate downside here 130 20 looks very reasonable in terms of direction e where we're heading at the moment If we can break through those previous weekly lows, um, likewise gold then is feeling a bit of pressure under this kind of Context we can see we we broke out yesterday to the downside We remain a little heavy here this morning And we're just finding a bit of a platform for price now of resistance on the upside having broken through it Snap down lower On the pullback now that's 1705 and a half is going to act It's a bit of short term resistance, particularly if the dollar remains firm if us yields keep moving higher Be interested to see how that performs on the daily Obviously, we're around a technically significant level We had that low printed on 12th of march, which is also on the daily chart psychologically around this 1700 handle That long the 12th seen at 16 96 and a half And then again worth watching because that does open up the prospect for some of these deeper moves down towards Where we saw the initial low back on the 8th of march, which was at 16 73 Starts to encapsulate some of those previous lows we were seeing back in the summer That kind of range low from q2 into june of 2020 Meanwhile With the dollar just holding its gains at the moment from from yesterday's pickup Just worth keeping an eye on the euro dollar currency pair to kind of pull backs here the The recovery highs are getting lower as we go down to retest around this 117 80 level You can see this is going back to last thursday yesterday's session and in the overnight session on the failed break So worth I think keeping an eye on there Certainly again on the daily chart Does remain Probably favorable to have some further downside if we can break through this previous current level of support And be eyeing down and around that low that we printed on the 11th of november 17 54 as a target if that were the case So again looking for kind of telltale signs of whether that short would be viable on The 10 year and gold Seeing more downside weight probably give greater conviction for the move lower directionally for for euro dollar Equity markets though remaining relatively robust for the time being so it does definitely fit the narrative of What we were discussing on the by the stimulus and positive vaccine information Keeping equities generally buoyed that now finished at a record high yesterday the nasdaq a little bit of underperformance observed at the moment And s and p not far from its record high territory As well despite the relative flat closes that were seen last night And then finally oil prices remain quite choppy As you probably would have seen yesterday the container ship that was blocking the sues is now Up and running and traffic is running through the canal as per normal now I'll update you with a bit of context as how long it will take to clear the backlog in a moment So we did see on confirmation of that a bit of a downward move yesterday afternoon, but generally speaking I think people are more focused now on the opaque meeting which is going to be on thursday And there's been some press reports that the Saudis are willing to roll over in may and june Including their potential voluntary cuts as well, which would be supportive of press Irrespective of the pick up in covid cases and Some questions about demand the net result is From an opaque perspective, they're just willing to to continue to keep supply relatively tight For the time being and enact more cautiously on We have not over the pandemic as yet as far as the the Saudis are concerned And obviously they're the key influential factor in that supply pact Quick look at the headlines then to summarize really I've kind of given you the top level a bit more detail So president biden said yesterday that 90% of us adults will be eligible for a covid-19 vaccine In three weeks That is administration will more than double the number of pharmacies where shots are available This does come as I'll show you in a moment. We've seen this second consecutive week of pickups in us cases The other more positive things first though is not only is the commitment for the u.s Continue to be quite aggressive on the rollout using further kind of pharmacy infrastructure to deliver those vaccines But importantly there was a cdc report Last night or yesterday and it was talking about phyza and madonna of which of course in terms of the composition Of the rollout strategy in the u.s Um that that nation is very heavily tilted towards these two pharmaceuticals Companies vaccine as compared to say the uk with astra for example And the covid-19 vaccines from these two firms effectively prevented corona virus infections not just illnesses And substantial protection is evident after two weeks after the first dose And after two days is I believe this as much as 90 effectiveness in preventing infections in the first instance And of course, this is going to be Particularly important Try to cut transmissions in a period of when we're reopening economies So definitely a positive development there and probably underpins a little bit of the moves that we were just talking about in the old environment And it is timely because as I said covid cases have been picking up And perhaps I can show you a graphic here to give it a little bit of context Um what we've seen is new cases cases in the u.s rose nine percent to more than four hundred and thirty one thousand last week The first time that's happened since january that cases have increased for two weeks in a row And I guess you know This is way lower of course than where we were in the peak just going through the new year But what market participants look look at is trends and obviously we've been trending We've been seeing a really quick deceleration in in the in the case rate And so this is the first pickup that we've had Since these elevated levels and that's the reason why it is a little bit worrying and and constitute something That's definitely you've got to be vigilant and worth tracking going forward um what this has led to though from biden's approach is He reportedly thinks that states should pause Reopening efforts and warned that we could still see a setback in the us vaccination program So definitely tactically Much different from the prior administration, which was quite aggressive to reopen get people back to work and jobs and so on Much more cautious sounding with with biden Given the context of what's just happened here in the last two weeks with the case rate seeing just a slight uptick Excuse me I mentioned the Suez so as I said a bit of context Ever given as you can see here is moving again and traffic along the waterway is now Underway as as as normal last night For context the Suez canal authority had said that navigation has started in the canal from 6 p.m. Local time And that by 8 a.m. On Tuesday 113 Vessels should have sailed through the channel and if continued at this rate The backlog of roughly 422 ships Waiting at both ends of the waterway. So those going north and southbound could well all pass through All being well Within the next three to three and a half days, and then we're back to normal So This is the reason why I think the market generally as far as oil price is concerned from a trading perspective Intradiate have been fairly Nonplussed by this whole event Despite the the quick move that we saw yesterday I don't think this is going to have a meaningful impact not unless there's another incident of course that causes another blockage That's not to say that freight costs and so on might have some some towel effect given the The disruption that it caused On that point as well with oil, I did mention briefly OPEC. There's been some more source comments Similar to what we would anticipate really going to Thursday's meeting. Saudi Arabia reportedly Is said to be happy to roll over the supply kind of packed Over through May and June Whereas while it's also said to be prepared to extend its full of three cuts as it sees global demand is not yet strong enough In the context of bringing back their additional supply with everything that's going on with covid For the time being I would say that this is Probably the base case now that we'll be looking at but of course whether or not they give A kind of voluntary amount that russia and kazakh star which they're given before To get them to agree to this deal that they can add another 250 300 000 So there's there's going to be a few parts to to manage I guess in terms of market reaction I think the rollover is pretty much given But the voluntary cuts and then what they give to to russia to appease them to get them to agree to the deal would be Tangible things that could well then constitute a more strict Kind of compliance more bullish for price or something a little bit more loose That might see then a bit of profit taken from any pre-positioning ahead of the meeting Um on a kind of perspective Not not too busy today to be quite honest. We've got the german state cpi throughout the morning Um, we've then got the sentiment based numbers coming out of europe, but again these very seldom market moving So then we go into the Afternoon there's no major 130s coming out of the u.s. You've got us consumer confidence coming out Um later on in the afternoon is expected to see quite a market uptick from the previous month's reading The api retreats after market as per normal Few fed speakers all voters. Uh, so do be mindful of that. Um, they're speaking From 2 p.m. London time 5 and 7 p.m. respectively So all very much centered around the u.s. Trading hours probably the most notable one From a topic point of view is bostic speaking on the post-covid economy That'll be at 5 p.m. London time But yeah, that is it. So good to let you guys get on with the session And any questions at all feel free to just drop me a comment in the discord room on outfire live Or if you're watching this delayed on youtube, don't forget to subscribe to the channel And yeah, feel free to ask me any questions there as well. All right. Take care. Have a good day guys