 This is the most orderly bear market I've traded. There's phenomenal action on both sides. If you are a trader, none of the best. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody had a great week of trading. We are obviously in the middle of a three day weekend or for me, it's Saturday morning. It's 7.30 in the morning, right? And again, this is the only time I have to take care of everything because again, dad's life is never dull. So all you guys are kids. No, so let's talk about the market. So if you guys remember in 2008, right? When we went through this bear market, there was a really big effort by the government to inflow cash into the market, okay? And they started this cycle of what we call now, we reference to now is the Fed pumping up the markets, right? The Fed pumping up the markets with continuation of cash flow. And the biggest problem a lot of investors have was when the market went on this big run, well, the market wouldn't have been on this run if it wasn't for the Fed. And I always maintain the fact I'm like, well, I don't get this if the Fed didn't, not the Fed, but if the treasury and everybody else in between Federal Reserve didn't bail out the banks in 2007, 2008, the market would have crashed. We don't even know where we'd be sitting here. We wouldn't even know if the whole financial system would still be even functioning to where we were. So that area, that time was really necessary for the Fed to get involved. Again, everybody's complaining the market's going higher as the Fed was the backstop but everybody was enjoying the profits because we kept on going linear literally from 2009 to 2020. 2020 came, right? The pandemic came. What happened? The Fed started pumping in more money and more money and more money and the joke was, well, the Fed keeps on printing money. What's the difference? If it wasn't for the Fed printing money, well, the market would crash. Well, you finally got your wish, right? But I don't want to use the word crash. I think crash, I think because the age of social media, everything is sensationalized. A stock can't just go higher. It has to go to the moon. I don't know where the moon is, but it has to get there to be successful. The stock can't just go down. The stock has to crash, right? Let's kind of take a step back. So the people who are complaining about the stock market going higher because of the Fed, well, now you have the reality of what happens when the Fed takes the alternative, right? When the government takes the alternative of using a different format of kind of stabilizing things. So now they're not pumping money into the market, at least not as much. Now they're using something called the rate hike. And now because of the rate hike, they're trying to contain or curb recession and inflation and everything that goes with it that's making life harder for a lot of people. So the moral of the story is people are complaining when the Fed was pumping money and the market was going higher, now people are complaining, well, now there's recession and the market's going lower. You can't have both ways, right? You really, really can't have both ways. And now we're kind of in a reality where the data in front of us is showing up pretty aggressive. And here's what the data is. We just finished up the first six months of 2022, okay? This is the worst six months since 1970, just to put it into content or into context, I wasn't born for another four years, okay? That's how long it was. I'm 48 years old. So this is 52 years ago, we had the worst half a year in the market. That's where we are right now, okay? And we're looking at now all the things that people warned about that was going to happen, but yet they were complaining about when the market was going linear. So we got the recession, we got the inflation, we got the surging expenses on an average family and everybody is in a weird way, putting in a lot less effort to kind of get out of this. But now we're seeing the ramifications of what everything we were complaining about, well, not me, come into play. And here we are, right? And here we are here. You start looking at the market from the trading aspect and from the investor's size, it's very rough, okay? And really, really rough. And again, if you've been watching this broadcast for just the last six months, you kind of know how big losing the 50 day moving average was. And yeah, you'll get your rallies in between, even get some aggressive rallies in between. But ultimately what happens is because of the fear of everything we just talked about, plus now we have the fear of, well, corporate profits, right? We've seen now in the last six months, you've seen Amazon miss, you've seen all these retailers miss, Kohl's, Target, Walmart, Costco, right? It shows people are not spending money. So all the fears that we had are playing out in real time, but for us from the trading aspect, again, that's all we are. We're taking this day by day, trade by trade. Nobody's trying to predict anything. Nobody's trying to be right. Again, I'm the biggest idiot on the planet. If I had to predict where things were, I'm gonna be wrong 99% of the time. But again, when we talk about in every video, we're trying to use the data in front of us to formulate an opinion based on fact, unbiased fact, and try to trade that side of the market. And we've been just going down for six months, some rallies in between going down further. But again, remember, and this is the most basic thing in basic form of technical analysis. Nothing good happens underneath the 50 day moving average for investors, right? For traders with a completely different thing. Again, we're trading day to day. One day I might love Tesla, one day I might hate Tesla, not hate, I love Tesla, but at least trade it from both sides of the market. And that's where we are. We're just trying to take advantage of price action that there's an arbitrage in majority people not seeing it that way. And hopefully it plays out that way because of confirmation, not because of our opinion. And when you look at this week, right, really aggressive sell buying action, great action, really, really great action. Tesla was really great this week. The semiconductors just imploded this week. We've been talking about the weakness in the semiconductor. That's really the group because of the chip shortages because of everything that's going on in the world because of the delays in this, that and COVID still playing apart from the corporate side of it. Corporate side of it is putting in still a lot of, a lot of corporate restraints. We're seeing a lot of weakness by the biggest group that is represented in the NASDAQ 100. So even though we had, I hate to use the word rally, but even though we had an update, right? We had an update on Friday, you can see what the semiconductors did, right? The semiconductors because Micron, I guess lowered some guidance, whatever the case may was, on Thursday, really put a dent. So the question is going forward is what happens next? And again, it's a basic structure. I try to keep everything basic. Remember the most infancy rule in trading, okay? For a stock ETF, a market to go higher, it has to take out the previous day. So if previous day's highs, so if you notice every single time we rallied, right? Rally in the last couple of weeks, what was the common denominator? This day took out, this day, this day took out, this day, this day took out, this day, this day took out, this day, this day took out, this day. What happened? Finally, we gassed out, hit supply and what happened on the downside. This day took out the bottom, this day took out the bottom, and this day took out the bottom. We had an inside day on Friday. So if you look at the overall spectrum of where we are, and you look at most charts, you could see these charts are bleeding. You could see this, again, you could rationalize whatever you want. It's like opinions, right? It's like Facebook had a pretty good pivot and the stock goes down four or five bucks and somebody who's underwater from 300 when the stock snaps back goes, oh, you're an idiot. Okay, are you mad at me or are you mad at yourself? I don't get it. So there's a lot of emotions going on. People are unfortunately trapped at higher levels. Investors, not traders, are trapped at higher levels. They're trying to rationalize and almost being in prayer mode that the market comes back. And my whole point was for the last, three, four, five, six months was, remember that the market doesn't have to come back. If you started trading in the last three, four years, all you know is a bull market. Now we had a market that's down six months in the row and you're saying, well, I can't believe the market hasn't snapped back. What's not to believe, right? You have the data in front of you, economic data in front of you that's showing really, really bad readings. And well, by the way, I've traded two bear markets that lasted two, three years. So why do we have to come back, right? Why do we have to come back? Now eventually, yeah, eventually the market always does what it has to do and eventually if you look at the 100 year chart, you'll see that the market has sustained its lifetime uptrend. But from the point of you being right or you being solvent, that's a whole different story and that's kind of where we are going into next week. And again, if you look at the market again, if this was a chart, right? These are the chart of the cues. But if this was a chart of your favorite stock, would you be dying to buy this? Of course your stock can go higher, right? Excuse me, of course your stock can move up, but the point is can it go higher? And that's the big answer for that has been no, right? That's why we're still underneath the 50 day moving average. So if you are a long biased trader and you're saying to yourself, well, I can't make any steam in this market, what's not to believe you? You're trading underneath supply. It's like there's a tidal wave and you're trying to get above it. Yes, sooner or later, you'll get your head above water. But again, you might die in between. So this is a trader's market and that's exactly what this is. But I will say this and this has been kind of what I've been saying for the last six months. This is the most orderly bear market I've traded. There's phenomenal action on both sides. If you are a trader, right? Not an investor. Again, we don't talk about investing. Investing is a completely different thing. If you're looking at this channel from the investment point of view, you're gonna get no value. Yes, I believe Amazon will be higher in five years. I believe Google will be higher in five years. We're talking about tomorrow, right? We're talking about the next day. We're talking about the following day. I don't know what's gonna happen the following week. Again, I'm not Ms. Cleo. Nobody has a crystal ball. I'm the most novice guest on the planet. But again, you're not being paid to guest. You're paid to collect data. That's all we can do here. So going into next week, right? You know, look, we had an update on Friday. And my whole thing was, if you look at my comments from Thursday night, Thursday, there's no video. It's usually my day, I kind of rest. And if you look at my comments from Thursday, again, we had a pretty nasty sell off this week. I go, look, I'm not really loving anything for tomorrow, that's for Friday. Market might get a lazy grind up with traders takeover. Everybody's gone, man. No institutional money flow is gonna sit there to start beating stocks or really to start putting in heavy money to lose. Everybody's in the Hamptons, it's summertime. People are taking advantage of the long weekend. People are in Europe. People are taking time off. And that's exactly what it is. And that's exactly what happened on Friday. We kind of, you know, we went lower. The semiconductor group was pretty much where the value was. We'll talk about the individual pivots in a second. But the market grinded higher. Again, and here's the point. Who cares, right? It doesn't make a difference. Again, if a tree falls in the forest and nobody's around to see it fall, it doesn't make a sound. Nobody's around, right? So it didn't make a difference on Friday yesterday. If the market went higher, the market went lower. There was nobody around to kind of defend or support prices, but the market did play out kind of how we thought lazy, you know, grind up for the week down 4% for the Nasdaq. That's can't be a good thing. And again, led by semiconductors. And if you look at the action on Fridays, primarily semiconductors. MU, again, guided lower. There was a two-sided trade. This is kind of for all you guys who are watching. Again, I trade channels. Again, I don't care, and I never cared, which way a stock goes, right? This is why you put 52, watch 52 to the downside of MU if it builds below can flush. In case they brush off news, they could go red to green for experienced traders. So we don't care which way the market goes. We don't fall in love with the company. We don't love with the pieces of paper. We fall in love with data. We fall in love with technical analysis. And again, I don't care what type of trader you are. If you don't have at least a limited background foundation of technical analysis, you're gonna be spinning your wheels and eventually leave this business because again, as people confide in all you want, technical analysis is good. You can have the greatest company in the world, but if it's underneath supply, it's gonna stay underneath supply until buyers start reclaiming it. So it's very, very important to understand that. So let's talk about Fridays pivots. Again, here's a two-sided play on MU. If it went green, it never went green. MU 52 held twice if it builds below can flush. Again, not a big move. You're not gonna get a big move. There's not really a lot of people to defend prices, but here's 52, right? Here's your 52 channel right over here. Defended it, they lost the 52, went down to like 51 and change before a little rally before the end of the day. But again, it's not really great news for semiconductors. Same thing with microchip, 56-24 if it builds below can flush. Again, I wouldn't use the word flush, but it went lower, it gave you a trade. Again, all you do in this type of market and any type of market, you take money along the way, sometimes it'll be 50 cents, sometimes it'll be $50. You don't know, right? You don't know the closing price. Your job is not to understand where the closing price is. Your job is to win the rentable. So here was the 56-24, got, yeah, went down about a dollar and then still closed. This is the lowest closing this whole formation on microchip, TTWO never got to 121. From time to time, I put smaller cap names on the channel. This one, you know, this one, oh, actually went up a little bit. There's AYTU, here's AYTU. Again, I don't trade this crap, but you know, at least most of the time. So here it took out 75, not a big move into 81 cents. Nothing really there. Meta, nice push on Meta. They came pretty aggressive for the 155 weeklies. 158 if it builds below can flush. Here was Meta, right? Here's Meta. So they took out the 158 and traded all the way down to 155. So like guys who took the 55 puts, right? Traded right to 55. I still like it if the market resumes lower this week and probably does, maybe it does and who the hell knows, right? I don't know. But again, 54 is gonna be a big area going into next week. And if Meta starts losing 54 and the market starts pulling down, you're gonna get a pretty big back test into the rising support. So Meta, here it comes with 155, 155 weeklies. And then I put a couple of pivots, a couple more pivots. This is, I go just in case the market rallies, I'll watch Amazon 108, 80, 109 needs to build for just cash flow. Again, Amazon pretty much closed at the highs. Not again, not a big move. There's nothing big about it. But here's the, again, E-Signal just still hasn't confirmed prices here. So here is, so here's the 108, 80, right? So here's the 108, 80, 109 and pretty much closed at the highs, one of about 80 cents or so. The day before, Amazon was in the same short. And the last one here, Sneaky Pivot here, 674 Sneaky Area, if it builds below can flush. You got eight points on Tesla as well. Again, not every trade needs to be 100 points. So here was the Sneaky Pivot right here. Here was the 674, right? This whole little sneaky support and nice little channel went down about eight, nine points before it remounted. So look, the overall aspect of this tape is still so biased. You will have days that are up days. You will have days that you can take advantage to the upside, but until, again guys, just remember this and put this in front of you on a sticky pad. Until we reclaim, right? And it doesn't make a difference what stock it is, what ETF, whatever, okay? Until we reclaim the 50 day moving average. You could see the importance, how long we've been underneath the 50 day moving average. That's the light blue line. Until we stayed below the 50 day moving average, the higher probability it will have lower prices. So that's it, right? That's it. We got some longs we're watching. We got some shorts we're watching. Let me give you guys a couple of names. Let me give you guys a couple of names that I am watching this week. Obviously I watch Tesla every single day, both long and short, but in case we rally in case, in case we rally, Microsoft looks okay. It looks okay. Again, for a trade, it looks okay for a trade. If it reclaims the five day and we do get a bounce on Tuesday, who knows? Maybe get a little bit of a move. DXCM looks interesting as well. It's getting a little bit tight. Again, just for a trade. Just literally for a trade. So cash flow, $1, $2, $50, whatever the hell it is. Just some cash flow. I also like on the short side, right? I like Lululemon. Lulul looks pretty good, right? Lululemon, the only reason it stopped here is the Bollinger Band, who loses the Bollinger Band. It can get lower. Google, they came in two week expiration, 600 grand for the 2000 puts. I'm gonna watch this channel here. If it starts losing, it can get moved lower here. And Qualcomm, again, it's the chip crunch, right? Qualcomm first day, first close below the 10. If it loses this channel here, maybe goes back to this 116 level. Who knows, right? Who knows? So just to prepare for both sides, we understand the ramifications of a macro universe we're in. And again, we're just trying to take it day by day. Guys, God bless everybody. Have a happy 4th of July. Go live your life. Smile, right? The easiest thing to do is smile. You don't need to complain. Whatever cards life gives you, just play them to the best of your ability. Sometimes you get a 2-5 offsuit, but sometimes you will get aces. Guys, God bless. Enjoy the weekend. And God's help, I will see you all on Tuesday. Take care.