 My guess is an authority on the ethical implications of the relationship between people and technology I'm joined by CEO of the futures agency. Good Leon hard good. Thanks joining us. Hello So you are described as what someone who brings information from the future so businesses can make better decisions in the present Okay, how does that work? Well as the future is I don't predict stuff, right? I observe what's happening and then I zoom about five to eight years in the future for the obvious things that will happen And I'll take that information. We call it bringing the flame back, right? So we take the idea for example five to seven years quite clearly We're going to have more cars with electric engines and then gas engines We bring this back and then we try to reinvent help companies reinvent what they do how they do it how they make money How they will continue to exist right because that is that that's the challenge, right? So it's not really crystal-ball-gazing. You're not looking that far here You're looking at technology that already is almost certain will happen Well, I always say that basically what I do most people could do if they spend a hundred percent of the time on it Right, but you know people are very busy So if you're running a company with a hundred thousand employees, how you're going to get enough information about the future You don't have time right so we do that for people and we have what we call future rise side We future rise organizations and governments and people Well, you were sharing at the inner type session the future show live You presented some key trends for the next five years share with us some of those trends Well, the next five years, you know, this is going to be quite mind-boggling. We always say that the next 20 years will be More different than the previous 300 years. So now we're looking at things that computers that can think You know so-called artificial intelligence cognitive computing connected things devices pipelines gas gas lines cars wristwatches Cloud computing replacing anything that's physical moving into the cloud media is already in the cloud The possibility of genetic engineering nanotechnology Digital money, of course, which is a huge thing basically money turning into data. All right, so datafication virtualization robots Possibly the end of work before too long the way that we know it because computers will be able to do a lot of the work That's routine. That's right. And that's going to change governments It's I think is 90% positive, but we'll acquire quite a bit of Handholding, you know, okay. Well with everything that has an upside. There's usually a bit of a downside at least But before we get to that I mean specific to the finance industry then what are some of the trends that will be most relevant to them Well, what we call the mega trends are the mega shifts and those are essentially trends like digitization of everything which means that Transaction cost goes down Transparency increases which means margin goes down like in the music business, you know music is basically free now So financial transactions will become more or less free or very very very cheap Okay, so you're talking about things like Spotify would sort of meet 18 million songs for eight euros, right? They used to be 20 euros for once a day So the unit price is just gone and the same that's going to happen with financial transactions wealth management information The possibilities that clients have all the information of the world at their fingertips using smart computing and intelligent assistance That used to be the bankers That know everything and now everybody knows everything and then of course economics things are changing to a really global scenario United States of Europe, which is a concept. I think we're seeing that Currently under fire, but in ten years. We will have that and that's going to be a huge financial Relief for things like military or police or cyber security, but it will completely create new economies, right? So I think that's sort of what I call hell when you know, it's hell and heaven. Yeah at the same time huge opportunities But old business models based on people not having access or being too regulated being protected That will evaporate just like the car business is now evaporating from selling cars to self-driving ability Yeah, and that is not a bad thing. It's just different It's only a bad thing if I'm not ready to embrace it and that could be a challenge for some institutions who May not be ready to embrace it. I mean, will that be a really scary thought for them? I think the biggest challenge is awareness of these things that are definitely going to change And so you get into sort of an assumption that the business in ten years will be very much like today With a couple marginal improvements, especially if you're successful and that's you know I work with lots of banks on this their problem is they are so successful They can't imagine that the recipe of success will not be the same and the same is true for the pharma business medical business When you're so successful and then somebody comes up some startup from China or Silicon Valley Just undermining you're like Airbnb's undermining hotels, right? Same thing. I called us a Tesla moment And you realize all of a sudden these guys weren't just crazy They're actually they actually real and it's happening and if you don't if you're not aware of that then you won't be ready So it's your job to help them be aware of that because I mean some of these things happen as you mentioned it happens now and you think Yeah, it'll take a while and before you know it is that well, that's two simple rules one is assume less discover more Uh-huh, right? So you don't assume that everything is going to be as it is right? You're open for other discoveries, right? And the other one is that the world is no longer linear, right? It's exponential so the changes are doubling every 18 months in technology Which means in in roughly 10 years you're you're a 30-time ex as far in 30 times gets you to a billion, right? So the what technology can do in five years. You won't even have a chance of imagining today And and and so this is really crucial is to try to understand that that this is no longer just crawling along It's basically like work drive, right, right in all of those areas like like the blockchain and these centralized computing cloud computing Pewter P exchanges all that stuff you think those areas will happen in almost a hyper speed kind of fashion I mean now we're still talking about it as something that comes over is a more long-term view. It takes years to come in but well That that depends what it is, you know for some of the peer-to-peer exchanges are here now They will explode right the gig economy to where I contribute work outside of Companies that's happening a decentralized money system that is a digital currency around the world That will take around 10 years But it will definitely happen because the benefits are huge for the consumers, right? And there's lots of regulatory issues, but you know, you can see regulation is now changing much faster than it used to Because the theology is putting a lot of pressure on that. So and and of course your competition isn't the other guys The other banks. It's the new guys the platforms Alibaba's and Baidu's and all those that come in from underneath and just nibble away at 50 points, right? And and sooner or later just crashes hands the term a cool petition I think that's the new term that's been come out I think if you're aware of that that's the best protection and if you keep your Assumptions open and you discover new things and it's also about creating human value not just technology value Yeah, that's what my book is all about. Yeah, we want to talk about that because it's not just about the technology itself But it's how it's relevant to people as well. I mean if no one's using obviously is useless So what are some of the complications there, especially the ethical implications that might come about? I? Like to say that we should embrace technology But not become technology because the problem is when you use technology the primary concern is efficiency So you make it more efficient quicker, right? And however, if everybody is efficient, it's a race to the bottom, right? Everybody's hyper efficient customer services automated Money is digital and the whole thing is a giant machine, right? But we have to realize that people don't do business with machines. It's based on trust relationships Meaningfulness relevance, you know human things and so the human factor is a much bigger factor than technology But it's harder to engineer, you know, it's harder to get it right So I like to say if you transcend technology, you can find a powerful business model That will be about brand about purpose about responsibility about trust And that is extremely important in the financial sector. So if you have bad tech, you will not survive Right, but if you have good tech and no trust, you're also dead. That's right So and that is a big problem and actually we've been talking a lot about technology here at cyborgs, you know But we haven't been talking so much about the people involved or the users and how it will relate to them You know, so do you think that's going to be the challenge for the industry that while they are all Wanting to jump on the bandwagon for this new technology have they thought about What's it going to mean to my client? How's he going to use it? Well, there's a lot of short-sighted thinking about technology becoming the giant margin increase her, you know I can I can fire 10,000 people in customer service and use a hundred people that use computers, right? Or or apps or software, right? And that is that may be true But it's ultimately it doesn't go anywhere, right? It doesn't generate human value So it's better to take people and reassign them into value creation things added values for clients If you're going to let your clients use an automated customer service system like Amelia or something, right? That's great. But then what else are you going to do to increase value? Otherwise you become a commodity like Spotify music is a commodity, right? So then you make playlists and you make extra things, right? And that is the key, right? So you should not ignore the fact that technology is in the end a giant equalizer And you have to reinvent and transcend technology to create new meaning. What about people themselves? I mean, are they are they worried about how this could you know things like artificial intelligence could really change the way We live, work and play. I mean, how far on are we in that area? Do you feel that they will become an affecting power in our lives? Well, anything that's routine will be replaced by machines and that is a checkout clock at the supermarket the truck driver between cities The guy that cleans the airport. Yeah, the guy that inputs the data for transaction the Accountants To to some degree, right? So anything that's routine eventually machines will be smart enough That's roughly seven years. What's called the singularity the point of where machines have the same computing power and they can understand language Between people which they kind of can now and images So that's seven years away and at that point we have to say really our job is to become more human to negotiate to invent To discuss right to to be compassionate to have empathy to create value because trust is not an algorithm, right? Trust is not Effective, I mean it can be destroyed by mouse click, but you cannot create trust by saying I like you on That's quite different. So our job is to move up the muscle pyramid Towards the sulfurization meaning wisdom, you know, the added values. Yeah, that's a little bit philosophical though It's almost like saying well, let me let's give people time to be people To do the things that human beings should be doing and I guess technology is meant to do that to allow you more time to be All right, but but what if I mean because a lot of times we'll embrace technology and do that and then say, okay Instead of going on my family. Let me go do something else That's because it wasn't exponential yet You know the thing is technology has always made promises that they can't deliver like artificial intelligence has been promised for 50 years never happened But now we have the first thinking machines in business right now, right? And this is like the self-driving car We talked about for 50 years the electric car for a hundred years right didn't happen But it's all it's science fiction becoming science fact, right? So if you believe that because it didn't happen, it's not going to happen then you completely on the wrong planet Because technology is now at the pivot point where these things become possible. So we have to get used to Probably in 10 years will be working three or four hours a day. Yeah, you know right now We're working more because of technology because it's not working well So you lie in bed at night doing your update or something, right? But once technology works well, and it's really intelligent and controlled by us. Hopefully we can delegate We can have digital copies of myself doing things for me. We already have that. Yeah, it's just cumbersome So that's the hope is that we'll work less make the same money Find more time to do human things also relevant for companies, right trust relationship branding But in 20 years, I think we may run out of work as we know it in 20 years Just 20 years. We'll run out of work. Well as an Oxford report saying 65% of jobs are are going to be automated away This sounds like bad news, but There's many many new jobs like drone operators for that fly blood Supply all over Africa. There's many new things, but in the end that means that we are going to separate work from income That's 25 30 years depending on the political system. Okay, so it becomes quite a different world It's a different concept to living almost and it's referred to as post-capitalism Which doesn't mean there won't be money or capitalism. It just means the logic of what we do You know right now we work for living to make a living but also for a purpose Right and so the purpose of what we do for work may be separate than what we make for the money Act on by technology. Okay, so what is the downside of all this? What are some of the areas the danger areas that technology might also bring with it? Well exponential technology like the Internet of Things digital money and so they're essentially like nuclear power We can make a power plant and heat some homes or you can make a bomb right and to a large degree is the same stuff Technology has potential to be extremely disruptive and destructive to us and erode human values For example falling in love with a robot, right? It's entirely possible because very soon you'll have pretty smart robots, right? This is not science fiction right or you know changing the way that we fire people a higher people because of algorithms You know, it's called algorithmic management as sounds like science fiction already here right the end of dying You know aging to be 150 years old. So those are challenges, you know data protection privacy surveillance Application to where I give control to machines. They're pretty small now and Most people are not concerned, but they are going to exponentially explore trend I mean imagine if your money is connected to the internet. Yeah, your health records are connected your car is connected Your home was connected You become completely Subject to whatever if there's no protection, right? That's right. And that will need to be that's a political scenario and also for the companies to These things will not happen until we have security very quickly one last question crystal ball gazing now What are you most excited about in the near future about all the technology is going forward? I think the potential to solve global problems global warming food energy water I to eradicate poverty That's amazing. I'm worried about the side effects But I think at this point if we if we work together and create an ethical framework We can deal with this Okay, well good. Thanks you so much. Thank you