 Okay, hi guys, it's Anthony here Amplify Trading on the floor in London. I thought I would jump on We're not officially due to come back and deliver any of these briefings until Monday the 6th of January However, there has been a significant fundamental development in markets which is influencing multi-asset class at the moment, particularly the price of crude oil on the headline that you can see to the side of me at the moment, which is a top Iranian commander has been killed in a U.S. airstrike on U.S. President Donald Trump's orders. Now what this has led to, if I just transition over to my screens here, is an immediate bid in WTI crude oil, that's the biggest chart in which you can see We've had a big spike in prices overnight where we've rallied from around a 61 mark all the way up to just shy of $64 So a sharp increase in prices overnight and we've held on to that into the European Open this morning So we're trading up in excess of $2 at the moment in WTI crude But that risk atmosphere playing out in the other asset classes, equity index futures lower, the DAX down about 200 The Dow already down about 300 ahead of the U.S. entrance, fixed income futures bid and gold seeing another move to the upside I mean just having a look quickly on gold here at the moment, you can see we're coming up to a really important technical level of long-term significance That being the high we printed in the summer of last year in 2019, really a few dollars short of that in the futures That would put us back to levels not seen since April of 2013 So really big day for gold potentially as well as WTI crude when the U.S. come into market later today So a quick look then at this headline. What does it mean? What exactly has happened? I'll try and give you a bit of a summary of this and a view of what to look out for next because it could potentially be a very interesting day later Dependent on the response that we see particularly from Iran and the significance that it could have with unrest within the Persian Gulf Now what has happened? Well the U.S. have killed General Qasim Soleimani, leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Foreign Wing on a strike in Iraq A statement issued late last night, the U.S. Department of Defense confirmed the killing by the U.S. military in response to the commander's role in attacks on American diplomats and service members in Iraq And throughout the region including his approval of an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad this week So looking to take action and that event unfolding in the overnight session Analysts believe that Iran without the hope of sanctions relief will likely continue to go to the U.S. with more attacks including attacks on oil infrastructure Now you'll remember this is particularly important because of the way oil prices reacted back in September of last year So before I look at the oil infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, let me just remind you of the price activity here If we move to a daily continuation chart on WTI crude, you can see here this is where we trade at the moment, 63.38 So this is the news that's developed overnight and the pop-in prices that we've had But look exactly where we are now technically We're right at a retest of that top that we printed in mid-September when that reported Iranian drone struck Saudi Aramco's infrastructure Knocking nearly 50% of the total output of one of the world's largest oil producers offline That at the time from the closing price of where we had on the 12th to the reopening of electronic trade on the day of the 16th of September That overall session change was about 15% one of the biggest moves ever seen in a one-time price move in a reopening of trade If you look where we are then really significant at these levels because above this we'd have to go all the way back to really April of 2019 So why was that so important? Well this is the kind of graphic you'll remember me using at the time a few months ago And the reason why I'm bringing this up is what as traders now looking at the crude market you need to be looking for Is what if Iran retaliates could be the targets What are the specific kind of key areas of the oil and gas infrastructure in Saudi Arabia that would carry increased sensitivity for its impact on production in Saudi Because this is how Iran will retaliate Iran's not going to retaliate so much as in directly at the US It's an indirect move against Saudi Arabia given their historical relationship and also the alliance that the Saudis have with the Americans So here then there's three key areas I want to bring to your attention that you need to be looking at Both in today's session and the coming days and weeks The first one here is the Red Sea port which is refineries based in a place called Yanbo Which is here on the left hand side towards the north part of the Red Sea Which would be then the kind of transportation hub for traffic moving from south to north through then servicing the Mediterranean So this is this area here on the left hand side as you can see a cluster of the main refiners here You've got Yanbo, Samref, Razef and so on all leading into then the two main ports here to service that area So that's area number one Area number two then is over here the Safanya oil field Now this area here is right in the hot spot of where the main deposits of crude oil reside within the Persian Gulf This if you think about it around every side of this area is Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and Iran Four of the largest oil producing nations on the planet And so this is the real key area of activity for the supply of crude oil So that's the second one Then you've got the world's largest offshore oil field and stabilization towers This is in the Keras oil field which is right here And this is the one of which those reported Iranian drones struck in September that caused that massive pop in crude oil prices So there's three areas here You've got Yanbo in the oil terminal in the Red Sea You've also got Safanya which is the oil field in the Persian Gulf And then you've got slightly inland to the center east part of Saudi Arabia, Keras Which is the main and the largest of the offshore oil field and stabilization towers that Saudi Arabia has And if retargeted, it would have an immediate impact to a sizeable degree of the amount of oil of which Saudi Arabia can produce So if I was a crude trader, what I'd be looking at is I'd have all of those names written down And if you hear any news break on the squawk box or the text headline feed relating to those areas It could have a meaningful and immediate impact on the price of crude oil Now just going back then, a quick look at a few other charts Well let's say we break through and let's say there isn't a development And why are we talking about retaliations? Well, let me just quickly cycle you through what some of the top elite of Iran have been saying in response to this development For one, the supreme leader of Iran has said vows severe retaliation for the killing You've then got the president, Rehani of Iran, saying that the great nation of Iran will take revenge for this heinous crime And then you've got the foreign minister of Iran The US act of international terrorism targeting and assassinating Soleimani, the most effective force dashing Daesh And so on, it's extremely dangerous and a foolish escalation The US bears responsibility for all consequences of its rogue adventurism So again, this is why the markets have got this risk on response to this information It's about an immediate escalation of tensions within the Middle East What's Donald Trump going to say about it? Well, you'll notice one consistent pattern here All the world's modern-day 2020 diplomacy of course done by Twitter What's Trump said overnight? He said nothing other than he tweeted a picture of the American flag So again, obviously the context here, it's an election year We are now in and nothing speaks more to resonate with a lot of the electorate base than being kind of strong and assertive within the Middle East in order to appeal to the public of that disposition So yeah, these are the key things to look out for Quick look at the charts just to wrap up then If we did break above these key levels of the September test we're seeing at the moment I'd be keeping an eye then, this is looking at a daily continuation I'm looking at here effectively the last two years really of price action You can see the overall prevailing high That came in October of 2018 before we had that big You remember global kind of stock market route on the escalation of trade wars The Fed tightening global slowdown That was when that Saudi journalist of course was killed That was that high that we printed up at around 7690 That's a long way off from where we are at the moment Probably looking at about a 15 to 18% plus move to the upside to get up to that point from the current level However as you can see here you've got this area of the April 19 highs Now let's just get a currency indicator so I can see the percentage change From where we are at the moment to get up to that level That high print in April of last year That's about a 5.25% move And a retaliation enough of hitting one of those key infrastructure parts of Saudi Arabia Definitely we can see a retest up and around those levels So by those levels I am talking this kind of area here As marked by the X Depending on what gets hit well then look $70 isn't even out of the question mark We saw how much the market did move 15% in September Could it do the same again? Sure it could If they could get something underway and have as much damage as they did on that prior occasion To really impede Saudi production Given Saudi what the third largest producer of oil on the planet So again key things to look out for here I still remain fairly bullish here on price I guess the key question is on the intraday Technically we've got to get ourselves We've got to see a decent break at the September high then To act potentially as a bit of a platform Do we get the next couple of days with the heightened geopolitical risk A break above, a pull back to the level And then the prevailing move that comes up to then target here In that kind of fashion Elsewhere, gold obviously bid on the back of this kind of flight to quality move With the risk off in markets Gold up 21 bucks already this morning Looking on a daily chart that's also got a key level coming up in close proximity You can see here the September 19 high It's only about 10 bucks in the futures away from the current price at the moment Any break above that? Well look this is a weekly chart Now in gold we've got to go all the way back If we break that previous high that we had in September 19 Then we'd be printing the highest levels since April of 2013 How much gold has risen over the course of the last several months Obviously as the world's turned to central bank easing It's been the predominant factor here But renewed geopolitical risk coming on the table with a technical breach What I'd probably want to be seeing here If we're going to get a test saying the intro day Is a bit more weight coming into US equities Probably got to wait until US participants come into market to see that unfold Anyhow, that is it As I said, we'll be back on the desk delivering our normal market briefings as of Monday But I thought it warranted me jumping on and just saying a few words for this meaningful update We've had in markets and a decent response in reaction So good luck out there and I'll catch you guys on Monday Thanks very much