 If you flip flop and omit steps and take the process for granted and be complacent and feel that it's alright, I could skip some steps, I promise you you'll probably lose money eight out of ten times. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com. Weekend update show, hope everybody is doing well, hope everybody had a good trading week, hope everybody respected levels. I think that's the most important part that if you've been watching this broadcast, again, you don't need to be watching this broadcast longer than the last couple months. You can see the importance of technical analysis, having not only a process, but really understanding that technical analysis is very, very real. Past experiences and markets from past years really do give us a lot of clues of what potentially could happen next. And if you've been trading for a long, long time, again, even going back to the dot-com bubble, there's two things you know kind of present day. Number one, gravity is real. Okay. It is very, very real. Number two, technical analysis works incredibly, incredibly well. And number three, the market doesn't need an excuse or a reason or a catalyst or anything in between to go up or down. So for example, the internet bubble bursted didn't burst because of an event. Keep that in mind. The internet bubble bursted because eventually buyers got very, very tired. Okay. Obviously, fundamental levels were in the atmosphere. So stocks were trading 5, 10, 20,000% higher when they should be. Their PE levels were off the charts or negative PE levels were off the charts. And again, not to kind of compare what we went through to the dot-com bubble. Because again, although I still don't believe it was quite dot-com-esque, it was very, very close. I think we could all appreciate that. And I think a lot of people that started in the last four years or so, been very, very spoiled. And again, that's not a bad thing. Okay. We went from the Obama bull market to the Trump bull market to the start of the Biden bull market. So irrelevant who's in office, the stock market has been tremendous. I don't think any investor or trader that's been trading for a long time, it's very, very tough to make that argument that the market has been terrible. Market's been very, very good. It's probably one of the better things that have been happening recently. Obviously, we're in the middle of a pandemic. Hopefully we're in the ninth inning. Hopefully everybody gets some sort of vaccine and the vaccine kicks in and we have a herd mentality and by summertime, everything is great, right? Barbecues, ball games and everything else in between, hopefully, cross your fingers. But I think a lot of people did get spoiled. A lot of people didn't believe that the markets will ever do anything but continuously rise. Well, unfortunately, if you go back to the mortgage crisis in 2007, nobody really believed that housing prices were ever going to go down again and look how that turned out. So we're kind of in a scenario right now that we're in a little bit in no man's land and I think reality has kicked into a lot of traders, especially new investors. And the whole buy the dip theory is very, very cool concept. It really is. If you look at and you really break down where the buy the dip theory is most effective, it's most effective in a bull market, right? Let's be honest here, when stocks go up very, very aggressively and they come into technical rising levels, whether it's the daily support or whether it's the 60-minute support that I use and they bounce, there's going to be a high probability level if the sentiment of the bull market is still good, they're going to bounce. The problem is the whole buy the dip theory, when you come into the idea that technicals are breaking down, there are technical damage, well, the whole buy the dip theory becomes a very, very aggressive way to get yourself out of the business very, very quickly because remember, stocks go up very methodically. They might go up aggressively within a two, three, four-day window, but if technical damage occurs and I think a lot of traders really saw that in the last two weeks, especially this week, when technical damage occurs, the same moves that are being put in a week could be put in on one candle. And for all you guys who have been watching this broadcast, I've been sell-bys now for several weeks, not because I'm a contrarian, it's just kind of what the market tells me. I'm not a bull, I'm not a bear, I don't believe in the whole theory that the market should go to zero. No, we trade levels, that's the whole point. We trade levels with common sense, using the charts to kind of give us clues of what's going to happen next and we're just trying to take care of intervals. So if you've been watching this broadcast for last week, again, I wasn't calling for the demise of stock prices, I wasn't saying, hey, the market's going to zero, we're just taking advantage of the data that we have. So when the market goes up, there's no reason to be short. When the market goes down, again, there is no reason to be long unless you are taking advantage of price action for the next two, three, five years. And that's fine. If you're an investor in this market and you look, Apple came from 150 to 118 and you want to get long Apple for the next five years, hey, God bless, right? If Amazon has gone from 3,500 to 3,000, you want to take advantage, God bless. If you are an active day trader or an active participant in the market, even from the investor side and you believe that, number one, your portfolio should be managed to the point that you are in control, then you have to take note of what's going on. You have to really be proactive in protecting your capital and if you are a longer term investor and you started watching these levels break down and we talked about every single level individually. We talked about where stocks continuously got rejected, especially on the queues when they finally broke down and where they finally potentially should have went. There was no reason for you to sit there in the fetal position, hoping and praying your portfolio is okay. Be proactive. Start buying, I mean, now it's a little bit too late, but you could have started buying queues, maybe buying puts on the queues, maybe shorting some queues, maybe shorting some spies, just to have an active hedge to protect your portfolio. And once the market's starting stabilizing, and again, we'll talk about the levels in a second, what I think the market, at least the bulls need to do to kind of seize back control, and when the market starts reclaiming certain levels, that's when you can start taking off your hedges. But there's no reason to ever sit there and say to myself, my portfolio is bleeding, my account is bleeding, I don't know what to do. You always have options. That's the greatest thing about so many different derivatives in the market, whether it's via the option side, buying some puts, buying some ETFs, shorting some ETFs against your positions, or the prudent thing to do is just don't guess, just sit out of the market. And again, that's a very, very proactive way to manage your long term, your long term growth. But from where we are today, you have to kind of understand what we're up against. So let's talk about it. First of all, a very, very aggressive week of trading. The short side was marvelous this weekend, this week, just really great. I mean, stocks, every level we're taking advantage of. Zoom was a fantastic trader this week. I mean, obviously to the downside, Zoom took down massive levels. Tesla took down massive levels. I mean, these are all macro levels. The video was really my favorite this week, which is very, very odd. I did well with Zoom. I did well with Tesla. But the video for some reason was a really, really good trader this week. Again, losing big, big macro areas, Netflix as well, losing macro areas. And again, there's so many different names that you could turn around. Roku got Massacre as well. All these macro levels got confirmed and traded to the next measure potential. But the one thing that we continue to talk about is execution. And as good as the week was, Friday I had a brain fart. And again, it happens to everybody. You're going to trade for a very, very long time. You're going to start sipping your own Kool-Aid. You believe that you could walk on water. You believe that no matter what you do, you could turn water into wine. Or yeah, water into wine or crap into gold. And eventually it does bite you. So when you're trading, the one thing that you do need, number one, is a good process. Whatever your process is, it doesn't need, you don't need to trade pivots with me. Whatever your process is, you could be a derivatives trader. You could trade fixed income, options, equities, futures, Bitcoin, whatever it is. Whatever you need to do to put stakes in your freezer. The one thing we do know when we're trading is you can't omit steps. So the first thing, when you're looking at a chart, you're looking at the setup. And you're asking yourself, does the macro channel, right? Does the macro chart support what I'm thinking is about to happen? If the answer is yes, that gets a check mark. Then you say to yourself, well, what's my risk? What's my reward? Again, every process is going to have a different risk, is going to have a different reward. Everybody trades differently. So there is no right or wrong general answer to that. You could only answer to that based on your own individual process. So for me, when I trade pivots, I already know there's a very, very specific channel. Whether it's a 60-minute channel or it's a daily chart. I know that level not only needs to confirm, but it needs to confirm on a second entry. If you guys don't know what the second entry is and if you want to kind of dig deeper into what the pivots are, there is a link and I'm sure Kyler will post the link. There is an introductory course, I believe, to the PS60 theory. It's completely free. You can check it out. I don't know how long it is. Again, I'm kind of like the guy who presses the buttons, I just don't know anything about the business side. I know it sounds crazy, but it's true. So if you are looking to kind of look at the PS60 theory, there is a free course that is available. Take a look, see if it's for you. Again, it's not for everybody, but if it is for you to match your personality, it is kind of cool. So I know during trading pivots in the PS60 process, I know there's a channel and it needs to confirm and not only does it need to confirm, it needs to confirm on a second entry. If you don't know what a second entry, don't worry about it because again, you don't trade pivots. But I know none of these steps need to be avoided. None of these steps can be compromised. I can't prostitute the process because I'm complacent enough to kind of omit these steps. And on Friday, for whatever reason, and again, I don't know maybe because I'm human, maybe because I'm tired, whatever the case may be, on two pivots. On two pivots, for some reason, I decided to go in first entry and guess what happened, right? You prostitute your process, you're never going to have anything good to happen. So I went into two pivots, one was NVIDIA to the short side and one was GameStop, ironically, to the long side. And I went in on the first chance, right? Not the second entry by the first chance. Can you guess what happened? I lost money in both trades only to see them work, not three hours later, four hours later, five hours later, only to see them work two minutes later, three minutes later. And if I continue to do the practice, what I've been doing for the last part of the last 20 years, or for the last even part of the last week, and just went on second entries, they would work perfectly fine. So as much as process is very, very important, and the setup is very, very important, just a key note to all traders. If you negate your overall thinking, if you flip flop and omit steps and take the process for granted and be complacent and feel that, ah, it's all right, I could skip some steps, I promise you, you're probably going to lose money eight out of 10 times. Because again, the whole point of having a process and having a successful way of navigating these markets is, hell, follow the process, right? Don't skip steps, follow the process. You could tell it's still bothering me because it's Saturday morning and this was Friday morning. So it's still bothering me. It's not the money that you make. It's the money you save when you're a trader to get you to the next business day. And again, we never, we absolutely never remember the trades that work because they're supposed to work. If you've been doing this for a very long time and you've been doing this with any type of consistency for years and years and years, and you've been finding that consistency, no matter what your level is, you know what you have to do. But more important, you know what you're not supposed to do. So Friday, for whatever reason, I had a brain fart. I skipped the most important, one of the most important steps in the PS60 theory is going in the second entry and it costs money twice, right? Not once, it costs money twice. So once they say, all right, I made a mistake. Twice you're just a moron. Shapiro, you're a moron, right? But again, short memory, it's over. So here's kind of what I did wrong here. So here was a pivot here, right? Here was a pivot here on the video, right? So you can see this channel here and let me just show you guys this. So here's a channel here, right? 483 was low here, 483 was low here, right? 483 was the low here. Everybody see that, right? This whole channel here. So what did I do? I shorted a 483, right? Schmuck, let the stock go through, put in a new low, let it rally back, and then when it takes out the new low, that's when you go into the trade, right? So it looks really good on paper. You see how good it looks on paper, right? Yep, shorted 483, look at the stock, went to 467, right? It didn't go down a dollar. It went down $15, okay? So what did I do? I shorted a 483, not waiting for the second entry, goes down a dollar, yada, yada, yada, goes up two, I get out of the trade, I lose money. Again, it's not the point of the money, it's the execution. So what did the stock do? It took out the 82 second entry, only went down $15, right? Schmuck, absolutely schmuck. So the moral of the story is very simple, okay? You're gonna have losing days, you're gonna have losing trades, okay? The execution is just as important as your setups, your time frames, your money management, everything. If you skip steps, you will die. That's the best, nicest way I can say it. I was using a lot more words that I don't wanna say on the video to myself on Friday, but you can tell how much it's bothering me, because again, if you just follow the script and follow the process, usually good things are going to happen. So guys, if whatever type of trader you are, whatever type of process you trade, remember, you gotta be focused, you gotta be prepared, and you have to be mentally in tune with every single trade, because again, if you just skip that one little step, one time, okay? Your really good potential trade is gonna turn into a really, really crappy result, and if you continuously shoot yourself in the foot, guess what, you're not doing this for a living, you become a statistic. So guys, I know we're all human, I'm gonna do this again. It's not the first time, it's not the last time, but at least we have to be conscious of the idea that hey, there's a reason why the process works, and I don't care if it's my process or yours, whatever you're doing, stick to the script, usually good things are going to happen. So let's talk about what I like for this week and what I think that needs to happen, then we'll kinda go over with some of the pivots on Friday. So look, macro-wise, the bulls did a great job, okay? We're not out of the woods, don't think we are for a second. The bulls did a great job. Number one, earlier in the week, we've been talking about a nausea, this 311 area on the cues, they broke down, they went right to the 150-day support, which was that 296, 297 level. So the bears did a great job throughout the week. And the one thing that you will find out, especially if this selling cycle gets a little bit longer, which again, we don't know if it will, but the one thing that you will know is you're going to have the majority of time on the sell side, but there are gonna be very, very aggressive violent snapbacks. You'll see that and you'll turn around, you'll say, wow, that's it, that's the bottom, that's the bottom. And maybe it will, maybe it won't, we don't know, we're not trying to guess, but always understand, no matter how bad a tape is, and this week, especially for technology, was horrific. If you were an investor for any type of growth company, had any type of run this week, you got destroyed. I mean, absolutely destroyed. Tesla went down like 250 points, it felt like. These stocks got really, really hit. And again, we've been talking about this, we've been taking advantage of the downside, but you will have very, very aggressive snapbacks. So the one thing that you have to do if you are trading on the short side, especially for this new week, and again, we'll talk about levels that I think could happen this week again. Number one, if you are short of stock, make sure it's not down seven days in a row, that's number one. And if you are trading a stock that's overextended to the downside, once it starts going down, you have to use break even as you stop. Because again, the further it is from the actual breakdown level, it becomes a different trade. So for example, right? Tesla below this 619 level, which was the big macro breakdown was high probability. Tesla right here and Tesla right here and Tesla right here was not the same trade. Because again, there's only one breakout and there's only one breakdown. So the fact that the stock tipped down macro at 619, that was your edge. The stock just kept on continuation going down, down, down. And the further it goes away from the actual breakdown, the higher probability you will get a snapback. Again, whether it happens or not is a different story, but the point is always look to the stocks that are about to break down. Not already stocks that are breaking down for two, three, seven days in a row. That will definitely help you out. But more important, once you get your cash flow, just use break even as you stop. Again, if it continues to go lower, it continues to go lower. But the point is you are being prudent, you are being protective. And hey, by the way, you could always get back in. So here's what happens. So we had this really aggressive reversal in the markets. You just, you know, everybody saw that. Big reversals in technology, crazy big moves. And the Bulls did a good job. The Bulls reclaimed this 307 level. Everybody see that? Let me just make this a little bit bigger. So the Bulls held 150 day moving average, put in aggressive hammers and reclaimed one, you know, reclaimed this 307 level. I do believe based on just this, how aggressive the nature of this hammer was, I do believe we should, quote unquote, we should have at least one more day, at least one more day of rallying for Monday maybe going into Tuesday session. Again, we should. God knows if we will, but at least we should based on the chart. So for us to have a longer move to the upside, number one, the Qs are gonna have to reclaim this 310 level, that's number one. And number two, when you're looking at measure potential, kind of for a debt cat bounce, we, you know, if we start reclaiming 310, we should get a move back to this 312, 313 level, which is the five day supply. Now again, why is the five day supply important? And why the Bulls need to really reclaim that five day supply? Well, cause that's where the shortest term sentiment is. And that's also by the way where the breakdown started happening on this whole macro formation. So if we can reclaim 310 on the market, we should get to this 312, 313 level, but watch that level because if the Bulls do get rejected off that level, and you can see why the five day is important, right? You can see, look, five day rejection, five day rejection, five day rejection, five day rejection, five day rejection, right? So if we get to this 312, 313 level and the Bulls get rejected, maybe you could start putting on a position to the short side on some of these stocks that had that big debt-cab balance. Because if we can't reclaim the 312, 313 area on a close, then yes, we are gonna start turning around. But again, we wanna just get everybody prepared to what potentially could happen. On the bullish case, if we close above 313, then again, you can start seeing levels where it starts slowly, but surely needing to reclaim. 315, 317, obviously the big one is going to be this 320 level that we talked about. That's the 50 day moving average to reclaim it. But again, the Bulls are gonna have a very, very hard time doing this within one or two days. So you have to appreciate these levels. And the one thing when you are trading bounces, every stock looks like it needs to bounce, right? If you look at every chart right now, right? Every stock put in a hammer, Netflix put in a hammer, NVIDIA put in a hammer, every chart, every chart there. So there is no one is better than the other, okay? The one thing that you're trying to try to figure out how much room is there potential balance? So if you look, for example, on the NVIDIA, if it starts reclaiming Friday's channel, then yeah, maybe it does have $12 range. If Netflix starts reclaiming this level, maybe it does have $14 range. Ironically, there was a big buyer that came in, I forgot for what expiration, but it was a huge buyer that came in, I believe for the March 530 calls on Friday. So when you're doing charts and you're looking for a potential bounce back play or a dead cat bounce play, just always be conscious how much room you have from your entry to the next supply zone. Because if you don't have any room, well, the dead cat bounce becomes kind of irrelevant because you don't have any room to operate. Another thing that always remember about dead cat bounces, and again, if everything goes well, we should have a dead cat bounce day on Monday. The one thing that you do have to remember on dead cat bounces, your safety net is nowhere near as good as a technical breakout or a technical range confirmation because the stock is just kind of trying to get its head above water to a little bit of breathe. So any rally, okay, literally any rally, you can get hit. I mean, as soon as the future is pulled, they could pull your stock. So dead cat bounces are very choppy. There's a lot of names that go up and down, up and down, up and down. And then finally, the stock finally goes. So you have to be very, very conscious on dead cat bounces also take down your tier size. It's very, very important to take down your tier size because again, you're not buying a technical quote unquote breakout, right? You're buying a bounce. So at any moment, if the future's come back in again and right now until we start reclaiming macro levels, we are in a dead cat bounce or at least a dead cat bounce scenario and you still should be sell bias even though we're still getting potential dead cat bounce. So be very, very wary. So understand the levels. I do believe we should again, should have a dead cat bounce on Monday. The best case scenario is we open up lower, start reclaiming traps and late shorts, start reclaiming Friday's levels and move along throughout the week. But again, we always are conscious that we are still in a sell cycle scenario. So let's talk about Friday's session very, very quickly. The shorts did very, very well, right? The shorts did incredibly well. I did screw up two trades. SAVA of all things helped me out on Friday. God knows why. So it wasn't one of my finest moments, okay? But at least I know what I did wrong and I'm gonna completely omit that. Going the least into Monday. Hell, it's gonna happen again. You know, it happens to me once, twice a month. So it's gonna happen again, but again, we're only humans. So let's talk about Friday's action. Twitter, 66 held twice if it builds below Conflush. Here was Twitter. You know, by the way, I also screwed up Twitter. So here was Twitter. Here was Twitter. Didn't cost me any money, but I screwed it up. So 66 held one, 66 held twice. It took out 66 and got absolutely murderous. So if you did do well in the trade, and again, my whole day, I just literally screwed everything up. You know, great move. Great move when traded all the way down to 61. Amat, 107 if it builds below, can give you a flush. Here was Amat, we talked about Amat. So it took out 107, not a big move, went down to 107, went down to like 105 and change. But again, it did what it did. This is the stock that actually saved my day. Of all things, this one I didn't screw up. Sava 42, if it builds below Conflush, of all things, I didn't screw up this one. So here was Sava held here, 42, held here, 42. You know, it took out 42, which has got absolutely murdered. And again, if you believe in the theory, stocks trade from supply to supply demand to demand, the liquid stopped perfectly on demand, went actually all the way down to 35 bucks before it reversed Apple, not a huge move, but it went into support 18, 2018, went down to like 17, 57. Planteer never got to 26 to the upside. I still like Netflix. Watch this Netflix here, 518, 519. Again, it never got there for Friday, but if it starts building this level on Friday, or excuse me, on Monday, you can get a big move, going never got to there. Obviously in the video, never got to there. I still like it for Friday. Tesla never got to the 633 level. Yeah, and this is where I screwed up GameStop. So GameStop on paper looked great. And if I would have went in on second entry, right? So here was a 641, right? Took out 641, and it went to 648. Looks good, right? The problem is I went on the first shot. I didn't wait for the second entry. Second entry worked for six points. I lost two points on the trade. Just a complete, complete, utter mind eff for me on Friday. I'm gonna get over it. I'm gonna get over it. And it's gonna be business as usual for me on Monday. But again, guys, it really doesn't show important, how important emphasizing how good execution is. Because if I went in on second entry, it was only a $6, $7 candle will follow. So again, be very, very smart. Don't skip steps when you are executing. So yeah, Sava got murdered. GameStop, like I said, if you are long, well, I was long, I lost $2, like a schmuck. But if you are long on the second entry, congratulations, you made money, because I didn't. Amat take a long way down. Apple take on the way down. So the overall week was very, very good out. No complaints. Friday, I just traded like a complete moron. The whole thing, Sava helped me out. But other than that, guys, I'm very, very pleased. Most important part is have a short memory, be disciplined, put in the work, continue believe that God will help you in your journey, but you have to take the necessary steps to put in the work and believe in yourself first. Guys, God bless. I wish you all the best. Have a great weekend. I'll see you on the field on Monday.