 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Fang What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire Dot com where today it is finally NFL week number one We're gonna break down the lines for week one with dr. Eric eager a pro football focus get his thoughts on his favorite Betsy this week and talk a little bit of college football as well. My name is Jim Saunas I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by dr. Ed Fang You can find his work over the power rank calm and Ed One of the games we're gonna discuss with Eric is Bucks Cowboys I an idiot bet cowboys plus six and a half before the Dak press got injury before the Zach Barton injury Every move makes me feel like an idiot. So I'm feeling great. How are you? Well? I am I'm good. I Was surprised. I was looking at your rundown before we jumped on the show to record and you know all of a sudden Tampa Bay's eight and a half my numbers think that's too much. I think that's too much I think you know a 43 year old quarterback Defensive regression is probably one of the most certain things in the NFL Despite the fact that I really do love the talent on on that side of the ball for Tampa Bay So yeah, no is a pleasant surprise this morning. I haven't I haven't done anything about it yet But I think I will after we we finish recording here I'm like I'm very conflicted because I already have so I had six and a half from when we were in Illinois for a wedding reception And then the Dak injury happened and it moved to seven and a half and I was in Colorado and I was like This seems like the sentiment is pretty good. Do I do I add more a seven and a half or do I stand Pat? I? Was very itchy so I added it at seven and a half and at eight and a half I'm like, oh man. Oh, I don't know like do I keep digging this hole deeper? But obviously it's not a good feeling to see that ever move the wrong way We'll see how things play out Thursday, and we're gonna full breakdown of that game as well from Dr. Eric Yeager and I think for an opening Thursday night NFL game It's good to have just even a little bit on one of the two sides, right? Obviously we wouldn't a little bit at this point, which is upsetting But let's say let's say you didn't have a pin, you know, like this was sitting at seven and a half I don't know for the last couple days, and I just updated my numbers on my site and it says Tampa Bay by seven point four and So but now it's moved and so now now you get a little extra excitement for what shit I mean it I think whenever you open up the NFL season. There's a ton of excitement. I'm certainly excited about it It's gonna be fantastic But but I like the market said have opened up a little opportunity for me Yeah, I spent my morning Twitter searching Zach Martin negative trying to see if you got a negative test yesterday I couldn't find an answer pretty sad about it, but It's gonna be a rough start. We're off to a blazing start here for me for oh number one Well, yeah, well we talk about my college football start pretty soon So we will but we're also gonna talk some Clinton George are there. That was a pretty fun game We're gonna recap that in just one second But first if you want to find dr. Eric eager and find all of his work and find it at pff underscore Eric He of course is one of the coasts on the pff forecast podcast their betting podcast with George Charewri You can find that by going to the number fire show notes and looking there There is a link the pff forecast podcast you can also just search for it on Apple podcasts Spotify Google podcasts wherever To get all of that before we talked to dr. Eager that we got to go back to last week You mentioned the Clemson Georgia game. We got to go back to that and more to recap week number one in college football Covering the past Last week you're uncovering the spread we had Ben Stevens on to talk week one of college football You can find Ben on the morning after on sports grid and also on Twitter at Ben Scott Stevens He was on Wisconsin minus five and a half against Penn State and Penn State defense came to play for this game They held Wisconsin to ten total points that game was scoreless. It felt like forever Penn State won that game outright 16 to 10. So even with Sean Clifford not lighting it up They didn't get the job done there next ever been Let's talk about that real quick cuz cuz we talked about the show last week that Sean Clifford has a ceiling and Either Ben nor I thought it was very high. I did think Graham Mertz had a higher ceiling I may be adjusting that opinion. I don't think he looked particularly good The numbers don't suggest that that he was good and yeah, I think Penn State's defense played great But there might be an adjustment on Wisconsin So, you know, it's one game. So we will You know, and I think when you look at last season, yeah, he definitely, you know, it was great against Michigan They look great and then he played terribly and I think Part of that was oh, he had a shoulder injury and he was trying to play through it, right? So that may be true that may not be true, but we'll see how Wisconsin progresses Over the next couple weeks. It was not encouraging. I'll say that I think that that's the way I'd phrase it Yeah, and they they they host Michigan not in the not too far future Michigan look pretty good in their opener too. So so we'll get some interesting data points I'm gonna talk to you in Michigan, too They're not in our cover in the past but right watching that game. You're like, oh man Ronnie Bell Gonna blow up this year and that like just such a bummer to like see the way that game started to see him specifically like injuries always suck but like the Ronnie Bell one like that's just like it's just such a bummer to See him specifically get hurt there. Yes It was a bummer especially after that amazing catch that got called back because of a ridiculous Offensive pass interference that should have been negated by the defensive pass interference right after it Yes, it is a bummer. I do feel like Michigan has I mean that was part of my argument with Michigan is that they do have More speed and quickness at the skill positions than they ever have in the Harbaugh era So now we're gonna test that I actually didn't end up betting the Michigan game But it was interesting to walk it to a watch party in Ann Arbor and everyone everyone had Western Michigan plus 17 Wow This is probably the first year of like, you know Legal online betting in Michigan first year you actually get to a watch parties because like vaccinations and stuff like that So like it's a different experience now. I'd assume being able to like, you know, have everyone in on the action effectively Yeah, we had a good time. That's good for you I'm excited about that not excited about the Ronnie Bell injury, but we'll see if Michigan does going forward next up for Ben was Alabama versus Georgia He had the the over there Hey, close to Miami Sorry, yeah, Alabama versus Miami. I said Georgia Alabama versus Miami. He had over 61 and a half a closed 62 So it did inch of inch of a bit, but Miami Didn't hold up on there and I'm not sure if the era king is still a little bit like Hesitant whatever it may be, but they were down 27 three at the end of the first half 41 13 through three quarters. So two scores would have gotten over the total but I think It's a good it's a good example out of where it's tough for me to bet overs and games that are not competitive And I think that there were there were reasons to expect Miami's defense do something They didn't but like you could have talked yourself into it But when a a game is that widespread and where one team shuts it down effectively in the fourth quarter It's tough to hit an over I finished a 57 so the under did hit there And I think it's just a good overall discussion of if you have concerns about competitiveness You need to be at least have a red flag in your head about betting it over for that kind of game Yeah, for sure from from watching that game. I thought Bryce young Look like he had tremendous pocket presence, which is obviously good in the long run for for Alabama You kind of the situation where like a lot of the top programs are bringing in new quarterbacks and we'll talk about some of that in a little bit and The question is, you know, whether we're gonna see the explosive offenses that we've seen over the last couple years with the top teams Alabama check the box week long and and and I thought with his pocket presence. It was he was very good yeah, he looked great and Really impressive and not a bad defense either. Just he just looked really good Ben was on LSU at two and a half minus UCLA There was movement toward UCLA as kickoff approach And I think it was probably because something Ben should Ben mentioned, you know LSU being displaced during the week having a you know, relatively tough opponent it closed the LSU minus one and a half UCLA obviously won this game outright. It was 24 20 entering the fourth quarter still competitive there But UCLA stretched the lead to win 38 to 27 Did you get a chance to catch any of that game Ed to see, you know, whether LSU showed enough hope to inspire confidence going forward or anything? Yeah, I caught a little bit of it I think the more concerning thing it was UCLA had a pretty tremendous success rate with What I still think is a question of quarterback Against a defense that was supposed to be awesome or at least has a talent to be awesome A defense that was terrible last year. Coach O made the changes So, um Yeah, I don't know. I don't know what to think about LSU I think it's there you had some good reason to be optimistic heading into this game and um Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if I I don't think I've ever really believed in coach O and uh Nothing in that game support. Well, I know I guess the offense was fine. I thought max johnson The company thing is a little bit. I saw you said this last year the year after they won the championship Like that was something you had discussed about coach O at that point. I think the tough part is how much to do the Less strange circumstances Effect things for LSU like once they get to more normalcy, can they rebound then or Was this a sign of things to come? Well, is there going to be normalcy? True. No, you're very right. So there's a question there So I actually bet LSU minus two and a half The main reason was the correction that my model made with UCLA Based on the hawaii game, uh, you know, they looked good on the scoreboard But they actually had a awful success rate against hawaii. They were able to correct that against LSU So the model will correct again and we'll see how it does going forward One that ben did well with was that georgia clemson game? He was on georgia plus three and a half versus clemson and got good movement there because before the game It became clear that georgia was not going to be as Short-handed as they were expected to and that's one thing that ben mentioned on on uh, Wednesday or Thursday was like Hey, they got some injuries. I still like it at three and a half but noting that and suddenly Georgia's got some of their guys available Well, it did close at two and a half moved across three there But ben didn't need the points, uh as georgia won outright the defense Awesome may do dj. We young a little a little a look, you know, not like a quite of a phenom they won 10 3 to get ben the win there, but I think that was kind of an ed game low scoring defensive Forward but a fun game despite the fact there weren't a lot of points Yeah, I I felt like clemson's offense ran out of ideas. They were under immense pressure from georgia and Continue to drop back and try to throw the ball uh, didn't didn't mix it up and so, you know dj didn't get the job done, but I don't know if I don't know it didn't seem like they changed much in the second half when georgia was clearly Getting guys to the quarterback. Um Yeah, so we'll we'll see and I think, you know, it was a low scoring game. It's not like georgia's offense was Very good in this game. And I think that's an interesting, uh, You know, how does that project forward into the future, right? We know that offenses that have been had been really dominating in college football over the last couple years Offenses are dominating in the nfl So when you're looking kind of forward to who can contend for conference and national titles Uh, I don't know if georgia really kind of scares you right now in terms of what they showed on offense clearly a good defense with clemson Um, but those are the kind of things i'm looking forward Uh looking at as as I try to project forward this season so obviously the actual championship odds for georgia do change because they got a win in a game that was In which they were an underdog and that's probably one of the few they had this year But did your view of them change or is it what you said where you're still Not sold on the upside due to the offense Obviously again the odds change, but did your view of them change? Uh, I would probably downgrade them a little bit on Offense and upgrade them a little bit on defense. So probably overall no Okay, uh final one here was uh, your college bet, uh, UNC minus five and a half against virginia tech and it closed at five and a half, but UCLA Couldn't get anything going on offense. They punted for their first five drives. The other one was the end of the first half Sam howell did Show a little bit in the second half and that was the reason why you like UNC was because you know Sam how I think is a person we should reasonably Be excited about but didn't really kick into the second half and they just couldn't quite claw the way back Virginia tech won 17 to 10 any final thoughts for you in that game Yeah, I think that was basically the worst possible way to open the season for me Very disappointed. I think if you would have told me virginia tech scored 17 points I Right would be almost sure that north carolina covers that game But same how struggled he clearly looked like he was adapting to The fact that he no longer has two NFL caliber receivers out there And um, yeah, we'll see if he gets better. Oh, my model made a downgrade on north carolina as as it should have The market didn't really seem to adjust too much. So Because they are playing george estate And so it's not the level of competition that virginia tech is is going to offer So we'll see how north carolina bounces back there. Everything's still ahead of them Obviously if they win the remainder of their their acc games, though, they'll win that They should win that division. Oh, I guess unless virginia tech goes undefeated, which I which I don't see happening so Yeah, it was one game. Hopefully it's one game. Hopefully it was a small sample size and I Is not I'm not completely off on north carolina Well, I thought that howell actually got a bit of a an upgrade last week because there were roster cut downs the NFL And dad's nuisance didn't even make the bears So like it's one of the things we're like, okay, maybe we're overreacting to the losses on offense Obviously michael carter givante williams. Those are big losses and lost, you know other guys On offense, but I was like, okay if nuisance as a thing I think a fourth round pick couldn't make the bears maybe We're over complicating things and how was this good First game not encouraging, but it could just be, you know New personnel trying to acclimate to the new personnel and we did see him play better in the second half I thought so I wouldn't close the program just yet. Yeah, he also had an awful pick to end the game too So that I I don't think there's much to say Good about north carolina's offensive performance and we'll see what they do going forward But again, I think that as they get more familiar with personnel stuff like that it may get better. Yeah Yeah, that does close the book on week one for college football We'll talk some week two with dr. Eric eager and of course pre-do week one of nfl Again, follow dr. Eager on twitter at pff underscore Eric check out the pff forecast podcast as well We'll talk to him about week number one in just one second at first a sports fans the 2021 nfl season is underway this week Fandals giving new users an exclusive opportunity to bet on week one games All you have to do is sign up make a 10 plus dollar deposit And you'll be able to bet on any nfl week one team at 40 to 1 odds Yes, that is 40 to 1 odds Then just sit back watch and win head over to fandals sports book today and make your first deposit Must be 21 plus and present colorado, iowa illinois indiana michigan new jersey pennsylvania tennessee virginia or west virginia New users only max bonus 200 site credit see full terms at sportsbook dot fandal dot com gambling problem called 1 800 gambler in colorado 105 224 700 in iowa 100 bets off In indiana 1 809 with it for confidential help michigan 1 800 270 7 1 1 7 in tennessee call the red line at 1 800 89 9789 Or in west virginia 1 800 gambler dot net Covering the present Let's bring dr. Eric eager back into covering the spread once again talk a little nfl and some college as well getting said For week number one in the nfl eric. It is an exciting time to be an nfl fan a football fan in general How you doing today? I'm doing great. I mean the season's already kind of started We had five straight days of college football last week. That was a lot of fun. It was it was good to see You know some some great defenses unders did really well in college football Uh home field advantage was certainly a thing again. It seems so Excited to see how a lot of that carries over into this weekend with the nfl I'm curious about that just while while you brought it up. Do you think that we will see? Something like that happen where unders may be more in play due to fans being back We might see some good defense as a result of that. Are you expecting things to Potentially translate to the nfl side given there are some commonalities between the two Oh, maybe I you know unders it. Okay last year in college football if I remember correctly So maybe but it was an interesting modeling choice like we you have to sort of when you when you Model totals you do have to sort of pick the league environment the era that from which you you sort of Deviate and you know, I don't think it was the right choice to say hey Let's let's choose 2020 as our league environment because as a lot of people have pointed out Road teams not only like won their fair share of games last year, but they also played great offense I think there was the stat out there. There's some road teams were as efficient offensively as home teams And and I just don't think that that can be the case this year There will be differential home field advantages that are different though like think about like a place like seattle where Historically you've had great home field advantage But it's more of a like a progressive city that might not necessarily pack 80 000 into a stadium The way that you know a different city would that maybe had less of a home field advantage Relatively prior to this past season. So there's a lot of interest. I think the first week or two People are going to be scrambling to sort of like try to understand Where the non-stationary takes us in so far as home field advantage totals I in our modeling at pff. We've assumed a 2018 level of scoring which 20 if people remember 2019 had some quarterback injuries at andrew luck retiring. It was a little lower scoring than 2018 2020 was bananas. So we we decided to go with 18 because it was a little bit higher, but not quite as high as last year Yeah, I'm also looking forward to seeing how the refs call things this year Uh, hopefully rob pazzola do that analysis for all of us and post it on twitter like you did last year But it seemed like less offensive penalties were called last year Played a little role in the higher scoring that we saw Mm-hmm. Yeah, I I think so that that's certainly, you know that the rule where If you're a defensive back, you can't come up and cut an offensive lineman who's pulling to block you That might mean more points to the offense. Who knows? I mean, you know, sometimes it changes within a season I even think of that 2018 season right the uh, you know After Thanksgiving all the totals went under because they started calling holding like once more a game And again, it's it's the fine line That I think you have to constantly keep abreast of what's the tough thing for you when you're trying to Be reactive without being over reactive, you know, we want to be data driven But we also we really want to react to small samples because they do matter a lot So when you're looking like let's say we're on monday or tuesday you're looking back at week number one How much do you think we can actually take away in terms of home field in terms of where in totals may land in terms of penalties How much can we actually take away from week one without being overreacted to what we saw? I think after week one, I'm probably not going to do anything other than observe But maybe after like week four, I might sit back and look and see if there's any trends Um, you really have to be process driven though. I mean a lot of stuff can that can lead to higher scoring might just be noise Um, so you kind of have to look as you said penalty rates Um, you know things like I mean even if the weather is better like that that could be a good beat or a bad beat Like if you have a week where all the the games are bad weather and all the games go under that could be a function of You know something that's noisy rather than anything that's sort of a league wide phenomenon So it'd be fun to get that data look at it and hopefully try to make the correct takeaways From that and the other thing that's tough with week number one is we got players all over the place Who have changed teams? We've got rookies moving to starting lineups and stuff like that and it's hard to account for all the offseason turnover But you a pff obviously Might be better equipped to account for that than a lot of other places So for you when you have pff state at your disposal Do you find yourself being more aggressive in week one because you may have a bigger edge than other places do or Do you still proceed with caution knowing that there is still uncertainty when we have player-based models and stuff like that Yeah, I mean the the hard part is is that A top-down model has one error and it's bounded and and that's important that the issue is of course that in sports betting The difference between 52 and 53 percent is humongous as far as whether you win or not A player level model can get you more precision But at the expense of accuracy in some cases because you know when you have Many different things and you're sort of building an agent-based model one error Propagates through the entire system So you really do have to be careful and I think it's more of a An ensemble like an ensemble a top top-down model with a with a bottoms-up model can really sort of help you Do better. Um, but yeah, I I always find myself a little bit more aggressive with week one just because I think by the time you get to week eight the dye has already been cast and like there are teams For example like pittsburgh that, you know, maybe the national media doesn't quite understand and and the sharper people But like but the betting markets are generally speaking Really efficient late in the season and it's harder to beat them then now, you know You do have so much time between You know when things are released in like may and now where While the numbers might be beaten into place They might be beaten into place due to information that is sort of overloaded and Improperly weighted stuff like that. So I do think early in the season. It's probably the time Um, and as the season progresses, it's probably a lot harder You know to sort of make money and I think that that's been most people's sort of uh, uh, you know experience Dr. Eager, you really need to stop giving everyone the secrets about ensembling different types of models because You know, we don't want all our secrets to get away. So, uh, but let's move on to So the the first game Thursday night game I just looked at uh, Jim's rundown and I see that Tampa Bay is now an eight and a half point favorite Clearly, uh, the reigning Super Bowl champions, but they do a 43 year old quarterback. I think he's still 43 And uh against the Dallas team that you know has an explosive offense Uh, that that gets their man deck press got back. So how are you viewing this game? Yeah, I mean this thing opened what at six and a half It sort of got to seven stayed there for a little bit Then you had the the hard knocks a bump for dallas down to six and a half again And now you have a full You know multiple point swing through a key number of seven to eight and a half I wrote an article on pff.com that actually was this morning on offensive line continuity Every offensive lineman that you take out of the chain It depending about how you sort of slice it is, you know, a quarter to a half a point In the point spread even independent of how good the lineman is and then you know, Zach martin who You know will probably not play because of covet is a player who's worth about a third of a win per season Which if you look at sort of like aggregating that down to a game You know is is anywhere from half to three quarters of a point. So that that is a big move and You know, I get it. I think there's a lot of uncertainty with dallas I also think you know the defending Super Bowl champion almost always does well against the spread in the first week season Also thursday night football now they get the extra week to prepare But thursday night football generally speaking favors the better team not the home team the better team the better prepared team I do think arian says a little bit of an advantage over mccarthy Even though I think mccarthy is a little underrated. So all those things make sense as to why tampas eight and a half I can't lay eight and a half anymore. Like I have some seven and a half I have them teased down to a half a point like Or I think one and a half when it was seven and a half like if that's the play if you like tampa, right? It's it's teasing through seven and three down to two and a half getting them at a field goal And then looking at the other plays on the board which include, you know, miami at two and a half India two and a half. There's a lot of teasable lines there People we're going to talk about the bills teasing the bills down to roughly a pick So on and so forth like those That's the way I would play this if I'm looking at this game The other play and and this is one where since it's gone through a key number of 51 I I do think under is probably this is the total that you want to go with On thursday night if you go with one unders have been, you know Unders are tough, especially when you look at, you know, dallas's defense But I do think tampa bay if you look at the way they play football It's run run pass and you know, that can not only be ineffective sometimes But it can also slow the game down and lengthen the drives time wise So day and a half now Has it gotten to a point where you are tempted to buy back in on dallas or Is it just such a a rough situation where you think there's enough where You're probably just going to stand pat with what you have from the buck's perspective Yeah, I you know hedging is certainly is certainly something that if if you know That some people, you know can Want to do I just don't know if you're getting I mean through seven is certainly a key number depending the total here is high But like you're getting a decent percentage there Our power rankings on tampa are good enough where I don't see value in the in the hedged position so okay, so Do you think that this move from seven and a half to eight and a half? It has to do with martin being out or just over exuberance of of the tampa bay box and the defending super bowl champs I think it's a lot of things. I think it's it's martin. It's um, you know I think every single coveted sort of situation is going to give rise to a Oh my god, this team is fragile. Let's buy the other team. That's not a tampa But tampa is a hundred percent vaccinated football except for quarterback is a weak link game so the more sort of like Uncertain to you shove into the system. I think the more that it hurts teams That you know on the weak links the dals is already a team of weak weak links, right? Like in the on defense, they're expecting the secondary to get better last from last year They're expecting to be lying to be better against the run like they're a bad defense last year and they might have gotten a little bit better, but Defense, you know, you shake one or two things up if we get an unforeseen covet situation for either these teams It's going to affect dallas. I think a lot more than it affects tampa The surprising thing about the dallas breakout too is I think they are around 95 percent So I mean that's why that's one of the we can't say to finish the exact martin is out Because it sounds like he was a vaccinated player He could have two negative tests It seems like he's probably not going to play but there is still that that door open But it's it's good to know whether I have like a general Guideline your head at which teams may be better equipped to handle a breakout than others In one team that may not be as a bill So let's move now to the stealers at the bills right now bills six and a half point favorites total here is 48 and a half and I want to talk to you about josh allen because Weird dude, uh, given the way his career trajectory has gone all the way up Last year became an MVP contender, but you know, we can always see regression happen Do you see anything in the underlying data on josh allen that says regression may be here or Do you expect josh allen from 2020 to be the forward-looking version of josh allen as well? Yeah, I think it'd be a little bit foolish to say josh allen Is going to be like 2020 is the baseline for him. Although that's kind of how he's being paid But at the same time I do think that I do think that he's I do think he's reset the normal for him I don't know if you can immediately just go straight to regression with him because of You know the the how well he played and some of the fundamental things like for example He was one of the top five core vaccine that fell last year in pff grade when the opposition showed a different coverage And they played pre snap So like he's clearly getting it right and and there's obviously the the the floor that he has by running That was always there especially in 2019 where he couldn't you know throw the ball into the ocean at times He he did like he didn't turn the ball over and he was a very good runner so that like buoyed them a little bit so I don't know if he'll put up the bananas like numbers that he did a season ago And I do wonder like I actually are numbers like buffalo here. I do have bet buffalo at six I think six and a half even It's been so long since the since the numbers were uh, since I bet those numbers but like It is interesting right because the Steelers were only two and a half point underdogs when they went to buffalo in December And has the narrative shifted that like four full points after an off season On these two teams. I think that's the argument you have to make if you want the Steelers side here Yeah, that's interesting I think with with buffalo, you know, Brian day bulls making life easy for Josh Allen to call a lot of play action call a lot of passing on early downs And numerous other things What do you think about the other side of the ball? Is Pittsburgh going to get it together on offense? enough or maybe You know the drop, you know the struggles Well, I think their struggles were always there last year, but they really showed up In the latter part of the season And you know is the is the drop in in market expect expectancy because of the Pittsburgh offense I think so but but I think the The the narrative out of Pittsburgh is that like somebody like mac hannaday is going to come in and they're going to run more Motion they're going to run more play action Pittsburgh was like I call these things kpi's their offensive kpi's were terrible last year They ran play action less than 20 percent of the time They only were above league average and play action in three games all season They were they they didn't run a lot of motion They they weren't doing a lot of things that make it easier for an offense to have success It sounds like mac hannaday wants to do that now the question is do they have the goods right? They they lost david caster on the off season their offensive line is already banged up They drafted a running back in the first round Which means there's going to be more touches allocated to him to sort of make the draft pick look better or to try to justify that position and so I'm just a little bit afraid at times that Uh, you know, I'm just a little bit afraid that You know things are going to sort of like we're going to get the same stealers offensive efficiency But it's going to be because all the components have gotten worse while the scheme has probably got a little bit better Yeah, it's interesting. Yeah I think that what they've done showed so far in the preseason does say that the the kpi's are talking about should get better But losing Villanueva losing to castro that might offset that Let's move now to the packers and the saints packers four point favorites total here is 50 before we talk about The venue for this game Let's talk about the saints offense because you've been a vocal proponent of Letting james cook on twitter the past couple years james winston won the starting job here The past catching core pretty thin though after mark has callaway obviously michael thomas not going to play here So let's talk about this offense in general before we talk about this game What are your expectations for the james led saints this year? You know, i'm probably under them on market like they're win totals nine I feel like it's a very similar situation as the patriots last year where you lose a hall of fame You you lose a hall of fame quarterback But you keep the hall of fame coach and everybody and the defense is still pretty good Right, I think the saints defense is still pretty good at that issues Although they went out and got bradley roby today in a trade. So maybe they're trying a little bit on that um But they still got a good defense They got a great offensive line in my estimation and they have a great coach And so it's it's really hard to suck if that's like the case It's it's hard to win a super bowl Like I don't think I'd ever place a futures bet on this team But it is hard like I have bet under on them But i'm a little nervous now after seeing james play in the preseason again Mark west calloway is certainly the guy there. No michael thomas No manual sanders. No jerry cook. So they are gonna to me It's going to be kind of a pound ground in pound game for them And you look at the other side of the ball in this game The packers are going to be without bachari. They're already without lindsay, which was a a move they made So they're putting uh, they're pulling elton jinkins at left tackle is a great interior player But I think when you look at this game you know 50 for a total is pretty high if you consider both teams are playing in an unfamiliar place Both, you know, the the packers offense is going to be a little bit. I think compromised by Offensive line issues And the saints are going to be I think a run first team that takes shots and You know, james is a I think a good shot taker, but it's going to be a little bit perturbed for a while until thomas comes back So what about the location of this game? Uh, New Orleans is uh Not a place you can play a football game right now. It's in jacksonville. Uh, does that move the needle for you at all? Well, it's sure certainly and that's I think one of the reasons why you could see value on the saints, right? So this game opens saints for two and a half point favorites While rogers the roger situation is being resolved I think the books were very much splitting the difference if you did a market implied model power rankings the packers were like one point above average which Seems to me like not the right answer if jord loves the quarterback and not the right answer If rogers the quarterback now they're you know in the marketplace about three points above average three and a half And this game, you know moved out to packers minus two and a half Which isn't that big of a move from packers plus two and a half But then you go to jacksonville and now it's four four and a half And you've traveled through that key number of three which in a game that has a total of like 50 is like seven percent or so so To me like you you take that percentage and you you take the saints with it I mean, you're just making a value play there. Um, I know You know, I I think some of this relocation issue is certainly valid, but for one particular game I think it's overblown so I would take the saints plus the points in this one Just because the numbers that the market went through As you sort of took away the two two and a half point I don't feel the advantage that you give every single team was a key number of three Yeah, and it was a a lot of movement here bummer for those of us who were in on packers plus two and a half But you know, whatever We live and we move on got plenty of other games on the board for this week Any other standing out to you Eric as being good betting value for week number one Well, this is where the market sort of disagrees with me and I'd be interested to see How it turns out but you know a lot of money's coming in on carolina like they opened I think three and a half four. It's a five and a half now not a lot of key numbers you're going through there Um But I like the jets. I like I like taking the points of the jets. I know they have the most rookie starting in the NFL. I know they have a new coach But I think they're better at quarterback. I think they're better at head coach Joe Brady's a good offensive play caller, but they're starting camera nerving and pat elf line on the left side of their line So I'll take the points of the jets here. I I again, I I think that The circumstances for zack wilson Are going to be a lot easier Than the circumstances for sam donald warren the jets and so everybody's sort of like being like oh It's just another jets team. I don't think so I think michael lafleur is a good offensive mind And I think robert salah is a head coach that we're all going to be looking back on and saying Oh, that was a slam dunk kaya for the jets I think the frustrating thing with the oh, it's the jets angle is that it's a different like a lot of the Sentiment there stems from the mike mcagnon era too and that's that's gone We've seen joe douglas finally get to put his Footprint on this team and obviously trading up for a guard. You can definitely have some reservations about but they They kind of took like the approach we've seen Successful teams take where they just say okay, we're gonna get a quarterback and then build around him You know getting a large or more bringing in quarry davis and stuff like that And I think that that does allow us to have optimism about them in general And it does kind of nullify the lol jets type of mindset because it's a different Different team from literally the top all the way down Absolutely, yes, and douglas has been making I mean they haven't had a lot to work with Over the last few years, but I think he's done a good job with what they've had to work with mckay beckton Was a good draft pick last year. I don't like trading up for elijah vera tucker But now that he's here. He's a good football player Um wilson too like there are questions as to whether you take fields or him I actually think wilson was a fine picket too Um, quarry davis looks great. Um, you know, they do need some You know, they do need to round out that roster, but they're not facing tampa week one They're facing the carolina panthers and I like I and I you know as much as I Am skeptical about every team this time of year very skeptical skeptical about carolina So eric we had a great opening weekend or at least week one I guess you could call it the second weekend of college football saw a lot of great games You guys have a ton of awesome data over at pff Any college football games that you're looking at this weekend in week two Yeah, I'm late to this. I mean not late. I mean a lot of us got I got ahead of this when it happened, but Um, you know, I actually am the I'm a holder of a decent amount of iowa hawkeyes futures for the big 10 And and you know big 10 west I believe as well um They're catching four and a half against Iowa state I think that's too much. I think Iowa, you know, it's certainly not better with the quarterback position I think but I think rock purdy is a little bit overrated. Um, defense is extremely good And they're extremely well coached So I will take Iowa getting four and a half. I know you could have gotten as much as seven at some point last week So again a little bit late to the party here But I do like them Another bet that I like when I'm looking at this again. This is a little bit late to the party But I like nc state this week as well. I think they're now laying almost a full field goal But I like that one as well Yeah, uh, it is two and a half Uh, frenzy state versus mississippi state. Um, but I think that one does make sense the iowa iowa state game Probably gonna be pretty fun always, uh An enjoyable watch if you enjoy the big 10 brand of football, but should be extra fun for this week as well That is dr. Eric eager checking out on twitter at pff underscore eric and make sure you check out the pff forecast podcast Link to that and the apple podcast page is in the show notes up on number fire dot com eric We appreciate the time as always good luck to you in week one of nfl week two of college And hopefully we'll talk to you here once again soon. Thanks for me on guys. It's fun. Thank you appreciate it Covering the future Big thank you one more time to dr. Eric eager for swinging by and breaking down his thoughts on nfl week one And college football week two and ed I thought that getting data on what books thought about The home field for this year was interesting with that sains packers game because it was two and a half moved to four It sounds like they're at about one and a half points for a neutral fields. Uh, so I think That's kind of interesting. Where do you sit right now in home field entering? What is a very different year this year than last year So in the nfl home field has been decreasing. I usually look at a five year average I actually took out last year's data just because of the empty stadiums And I get a home field of 1.84 points. So Uh, before you asked me about that, I thought I was still at two, but I think that's what I used In 2019 so it's still lower than that. Um, you do it kind of depends on you how you do it because Home field advantage was actually negative in 2019 when they were full crowds So I'm using 1.8. I think that's close enough to the one and a half. I Kind of wouldn't be surprised if four moved to four and a half with the packers there. Um, I do think greeba is legit super bowl contender And uh, I I think norlands is is going to be figuring out things and now they have to do it at a neutral site in jacksville Yeah, I had one and a half initially as mine. I still have one and a half I was very nervous about that because I found myself on a lot of away teams week number one I do want to evaluate based on what happens in this first week games And like it's not because of the one and a half like there are pretty significant margins, uh pushing me there So it's not just home field that may get me there, but um, I do want to see Where things go how it turns out and see if I do need to reevaluate that heading forward But again, as dr. Eaker said we should always uh be Wary of not overreacting. Let's move now into covering the future for this week and ed You want to talk about a game? I'm excited to watch because I think it'll be a fun one with two Purity potentially exciting teams. That's the chargers at washington What's your read on this game right now with the chargers one point favorites? Yeah, I mean my number is actually like a lot of bad teams as as home dogs Um, and when you look through that list the the least bad team, I believe is the washington football team So they brought in ryan Fitzpatrick as the quarterback That's clearly a better situation than what they started out with last year With dwayne haskins going into the season and then their defense took a dramatic turn last year with talented defensive line And they were much better on the defensive side of the ball You kind of don't expect them to necessarily sustain that level But I do like that they they signed william jackson as as a quarterback A guy who's going to be able to lock down number one receivers for washington and then on the other side The los angeles chargers had a great year last year. Justin herbert had a great year last year But you really expect regression for a quarterback that was so good in his rookie year Aaron shots has talked about this on football outsider. It's definitely one of his uh His uh preseason hits for 2021 the chargers actually weren't particularly good when I look at adjusted success rate last year They were they were very near league average So I expect both these teams to be near nfl average My model actually has washington winning this game outright by a point very close game Something that could definitely come down to the last seconds of the game But right now you can get the football team plus one at home and I like that Yeah, I think that it's a very interesting game because I I have been I think lower than market on washington this entire off season I heard a lot of buzz around their division odds probably because people just don't like the cowboy as much as I do which again is Gonna be fun going into week number one and I was hesitant to buy in but I do think that one is fair That's right where I have it as well. So I think that that's yeah, you have football team by one No, I have so I have chargers by 1.19 So I think it's a fair number at chargers by one But I that's despite the fact that I've been lower than consensus on washington all year So if you've been more in line with them, it makes sense that you would have football team by one in this situation Yeah, yeah, that's that's that's what the numbers say and and it feels right too. I I don't feel Like the chart. I feel like the chargers are overrated and I also don't know why I call them football team I hate that name. It's stupid. Washington is just easier. Just I just call them washington there's been I need your take on this because I've seen a lot of twitter stuff again. Twitter is the worst But anyway, twitter stuff about people saying they should keep the washington football team. Yeah, I don't understand it I think it's just stupid. His name of all time. Um, I know you're more of a soccer person though So pro or con for you are pro or against washington football team keeping that name I I kind of like it. I like wft. I think it's a good, you know little acronym I don't know what my soccer fandom has to do with any of that But well, there's it's more like, you know fc stuff like that like that's more like a Soccer thing than a football thing. So I like I'm just not used to it and it drives me nuts I I think they had like the washington armada. That sounds kind of cool. I can get behind that Any name that doesn't end in an a or an s. I mean, I am in favor of like the jazz That's a cool name. I think the armada the heat those are cool names. So I I'm pro Armada this way. I kind of like washington football team I would stick with that. I think it's terrible. Plus you got a name already. You got you got a name You have a year of brand recognition You have a year of a fair weather fans that that jumped. I got a friend that Decided he was a long suffering washington football team fan. So I think that's all hilarious So I would like them to keep the name team armada over here my cover in the future for this week is Looking towards an under because I do think that you know, similar to dr Eager, he was on a couple unders and we talked to him I think leaning towards unders this week is the right move because Fans are back in the stands. I do think that played a Partial role in last year's big totals and it wasn't all of it because like you said penalties mattered a lot But it was likely some to me The game where I'm most inclined to bet under is the eagles versus the falcons at 48 and a half neither these defenses are Once I'm super high on but I also think they might be a bit underrated if you look back at last year Overall the falcons finished 15th and schedule adjusted defense based on number fires metrics. The eagles were 19th I've got them projected to finish 18th and 19th respectively this year. So They're both bottom half defenses, but I bet I'm probably higher on them than consensus It I'd also expect this game to feature a lot of running clock because the eagles are starting jail and hurts to open the year And in the four games hurts started last year the eagles passed just 51% of the time on early downs in the first half There 51% right there would have been the ninth lowest mark in the league if it were their full season mark When karsten wence started it was 55 or 56 percent So it was different coaching staff then but I think it's fair to expect the eagles to skew pretty strongly towards the run This year elana finished eighth and early down first half pass rates Now they're adding arthur smith as their play caller smith was run heavy in tennessee That was likely dictated by their personnel and their personnel here favors the pass I wouldn't want to be a run heavy team with mike davis cordial paterson and wane gallman So i'm not expecting them to be The play calling system that smith was in tennessee, but they also might not be as past heavy as they were last year So Those are two things that pushed me towards the under I think the defenses are better than perception and I think that both teams May run more than perception and both those Components lend themselves toward the under so i'll take under 48 and a half At minus 115 here to the eagles versus the falcons And we talked about this with rob puzzle before betting unders is not great for your health Because it is far more stressful than betting it over But I do feel like in this spot. I'm okay with it any thoughts for you on the eagles or falcons entering 2021 I mean, I'm not sure what I I don't know. I mean, Atlanta should be a below average football team Their defense has never been good over the last however many years Actually, I think they were okay for parts of last year Matt rinds getting a little old although i'm interested to see How his partnership with kyle pits the rookie will be And you know, I think when you're starting jaylon hurts At quarterback you I don't have a lot of hope for philly at this point I think they're gonna be a definitely bottom 10 team in the nfl and my numbers reflect that Yeah, my my do as well and it's not all hurts It's a lot of it is the team telling us they don't care about 2021 like when they're trading for future assets and stockpiling those It says to me They are not a 2021 focus team and some of their draft things did too like landon dickerson good player Not a guy you count on for 2021 given his injury So I think a lot of their moves said they're gearing towards 2022 and beyond that does worry me here So I think that uh Being low on their offense in general is good and that does translate to an under here at 48 and a half That is all that we have here for week number one in the nfl It is good to have some actual games to break down once again Big thank you once again to dr. Eric eager a pro football focus Check out the pff forecast podcast with him and george charlie and see their thoughts on week one over there as well Ed What is going on for you this week over at the power rank? On the football analytics show I had ben baldlin dr. Ben baldlin on the show. It was a great conversation It's up right now and he does so much good work on his site rbsdm Dot com you can actually figure out how you can remember those uh five letters much more easily because I could never remember him And then is it running backs don't matter? Yeah, I didn't know that sorry Did I spoil it? Which is a true statement So and then uh, so that was a great conversation and then you know members of my site get access to all of my best predictions Things that I'm I feel very good about You can there there's a lot of uh, you know most of the value in the nfl Is bad teams at home that are underdogs, which which I think is pretty interesting So you can definitely check that out at the power rank dot net That's where you can learn more about becoming a member of my site and there's there's no better time than than right now Does bad teams at home count the new york giants against denver in week one? Oh, yeah, I think so okay good because uh After our uh little conference out in denver people are very mad at me for For talking down on the broncos a little nervous about under eight and a half I feel like I've uh got a lot riding on this one now reputationally So uh wouldn't mind if they were to take a loss this week uh to help out that underwind total there I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We have our daily fantasy previous week one going up tomorrow or according to that 10 a.m On the fan dual youtube page up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast eat after that We'll also have a youtube show previewing monday football and thursday night football every week 4 p.m. I'll have this thursday's preview ryan williams previewing monday football next week So make sure you check that on the fan dual youtube page And also subscribe to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and subscribe to this podcast covering the spread While you are at it big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week. We made it week number one is here Got some football coming up sit back enjoy go in some bets and we'll talk to you once again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network. What's up guys? This is jordan spieth if you're watching this video, please like and subscribe to the fan dual youtube channel