 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Tuesday morning, everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming alive from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We got another exciting week in the markets, man. You got markets roaring higher. How about the action? Right? I mean, I put it lightly. But just from yesterday, man, you have the market trade down Sunday night from 3980 to below 3900. Folks, we had a 3800 handle yesterday at about 4 a.m. Eastern time. We're above 4,000. 4,018, we just hit high of 4,020, not quite 420 for our man, Elon, 4,020 in the S&Ps. You're up by 36 points. Fed meeting begins today in the middle of what you could call a banking crisis that's still unfolding. You jump over to First Republic, you want some volatility, man. First Republic. You're going to hear the stories of First Republic is trading higher today. And they are, man, because percentages on small numbers, they can be very large percentages because you're dealing with small numbers. So you are up right now $3.50 on a $12 stock. What is that? Almost a 30% rise. Here's all I'll tell you, folks. All you're doing is you're trading back to where this equity was trading at at about 1.30 p.m. Eastern time. It doesn't mean anything, but context is important. You're going to hear all the headlines because I'm seeing them this morning. You had First Republic trading dramatically lower. You're now back to where you were at about 1.30. Well off of the lows yesterday and well off of the lows of the close. But as we've seen, right, very difficult to stem the tide in terms of what is going on with First Republic, but we got markets in positive territory. And before we go through the market wrap, let's talk about some of the action driving the market wrap this morning. Federal Reserve faces tough decisions. Fed meets today, decision tomorrow. We'll put that one on a back burner for a moment because this is the one, folks yelling, uh, what is she talking to 10 o'clock? Is that it? Right? I believe it is. Let's see if they say it in here. Pretty sure she's talking to 10 o'clock, but we already have some of the comments out there will say on Tuesday that the U.S. government could repeat the drastic actions it took recently to protect bank depositors if small lenders are threatened. Always intriguing reading through the small lenders. Does that include companies like Roku that park half a billion dollars in one for-profit bank and then complain that their money's at risk? Yeah, uh, not exactly small lenders. Uh, excuse me. Okay. Let me do that one again because this is talking about small lenders. All right. Not Roku, not a fair comparison. I'm going left and right here, but small lenders. They're talking about the intermediate banks, folks. The, the, the smallest banks, the intermediate banks, the medium, the regional banks, uh, as Yellen will say, Treasury Secretary Yellen is going to say. I believe these are remarks that she'll be talking about at 10 o'clock. Our intervention was necessary to protect the broader U.S. banking system and similar actions could be warranted if smaller institutions suffer deposit runs that pose the risk of contagion. We know they pose the risk for contagion because we're living through it right now. So she is at a conference of the American Bankers Association. Now that's going to be quite a conference. A little, a little, uh, shoulder bumping with the bankers. Good time to be a banker. That'll be an interesting conference, right? Uh, U.S. authorities, yeah, took the extraordinary step, of course, with Silicon Valley and signature and that transitions over to this headline as the U.S. studies ways to ensure all bank deposits. If the crisis grows, the core authorities don't see yet expanding the FDIC coverage as necessary. Still they're studying the legal framework using emergency powers. And how do you let a bank fail and not cover someone's deposits when you got a company like Roku, bring it back to them and with $500 million and they got all their money back, man, doesn't seem fair. If that's the case, seems like they're already in a tough spot that they gave the implicit, okay, the implicit, um, designation that yeah, they're, they're gonna, they're gonna back them, man. Now they have to call the bank systematic in order to be able to do that. I believe that's the, the regulation, right? But you can see how things change so quickly because the law that got passed in what, 2017, 2018, which rolled back some of Dodd-Frank specifically said banks under $250 billion dollars were exempt under the premise that they were not systematically important. Well, that just went out the window the moment they were gonna go BK folks. First Republic is still in a tough spot. And here's the two sides of this. Number one, I don't understand how the runs on these banks stop unless they do guarantee it because man, as I've been saying, who has over $250,000 in any bank right now folks, get it out of there. Like yesterday, there is no reason your risk reward analysis, okay, doesn't compute the reward for keeping over $250,000 in any bank right now, besides probably the, you know, top four banks in America out there. And even I guess when you read through this, you know, the biggest 10, 12 banks out there that have been stress tested, et cetera. Yeah, they're probably gonna be okay. If they're not okay, the fed's gonna bail them out. Oh boy, why would you have your money anywhere else, man? It just doesn't make sense. The run's never gonna stop. It's just not gonna stop, man. You're seeing it. You're seeing it playing out credit Swiss. You're seeing Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and some of the other banks put 30 billion into First Republic and the market doesn't even blink, man. Doesn't even blink. We're living in especially interesting times folks to put it lightly. And it's gonna be interesting to see how this one plays out because what are the longer term implications for something like that, right? Obviously it's going to, I mean, in theory it should hurt the good banks too, right? It's like, you know, that's part of the difference here. You put your money with the bank that you believe in and that's gone if this comes in. The other part of that is if the government's backstopping everything, you better believe we had some regulations, man, because we see how this goes, right? We see how it goes left and right in terms of these banks facing a crisis. Now they have a liquidity crisis. They don't have a capital crisis, okay? They hold these to maturity in terms of the government bonds. They'll get them back, but boy, you start getting into the mortgage deal, right? Let's see, I got this one pulled up. We got a lot of good stuff to go through this, our man. It's only 9-12. We're gonna talk to our man, Kevin Hicks coming up after the break, always interesting, right? That we talk to Kevin every Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday and man, it seems like the last couple of weeks from Thursday to Tuesday, the whole world changes almost instantly. Okay, forgive me as I jump around here. I guess, Yellen, I had a couple others. We'll get through them all. Here we go. I wanted to get to the mortgage-backed securities, okay? Anxiety strikes the 8 trillion, trillion mortgage-backed debt market after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse. Investors fear other banks will sell mortgage-backed securities pushing down the prices. There's stuff coming out of the woodwork, folks, it's like everywhere right now. And it's especially interesting to try and figure out whether we know the things are bad, right? The only bullish scenario I'm seeing is that the Fed's just gonna throw money at this and the treasury until they don't need to. And that's it, to the point of actually FDIC insurance carrying up to infinity dollars, which is pretty remarkable, man. Now, you check out agency mortgage debt, right? We're talking about, okay, to back this up a bit. Mortgage-backed securities, the risk premium. On mortgage-backed securities, talking about the widely followed Bloomberg index of agency, MBS hit its highest level since October when climbing interest rates turned global markets topsy-turvy, the more reflected feels that other regional banks might have to sell their holdings. Yeah, you might have to. This is why I think the Fed is really just nonstop right now flooding the money with flooding the market with money and guarantees. And you wanna talk about a problem, man? Agency mortgage debt in billions. Silicon Valley Bank held to maturity 69 billion. That's the reason why Charles Schwab's have a trouble, man. 159 billion. US bank court, 76 billion. We're coming back with our man, Kevin Higgs. Folks, don't go away. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. 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TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigerses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps up 35 points right now. All the markets in the green Dow up about 315 NASDAQ 100, up by 88. Let's jump over to our man, Kevin Hinks. Every trading day, folks, right here on Tiger TV, the TD Ameritrade Network with our man, Kevin Hinks, fast market. Kevin Hinks, Tom White, the whole team, they break it down. You don't get a faster market than this man. Let's just jump right into it. Kevin Hinks, I haven't talked to you since Thursday, man, a few things have happened in this market. Where do you want to kick things off as a trader? Boy, when we got a lot on the table this week. Good morning, Kevin. Good morning, Tommy. Yeah, well, the most important thing going on right now is day one of the Fed meeting. And as we're walking down the air, there's a, the CME FedWatch tool has an 84.9% chance that they're going to raise by 25 basis points. And then, I think Jerome Powell will, I think, Tommy, tomorrow's press conference will turn out to be a walking chew gum press conference, which means Jerome Powell will say, we can work and we can work on securing the banking industry and those two things can act independently. So we're raising rates and we're helping banks at the same time and off we go. Their mandate is still to fight inflation. So I think it'll be a fun, 28 hours or so, Tommy, until we get it. But I think so far uncertainty about regional banks, uncertain to be about banking in general is getting less and less uncertain as time goes on. Yeah, I agree with you. And it's pretty surprising. I think the last time we talked, right, was at the ECB and they go up 50 basis points. So we're talking about maybe, you know, that's going to indicate at least to some degree, maybe with the ECB was thinking, what Chairman Powell may be thinking as their meeting comes up this week and confidence. It's almost a confidence crisis right now, Kevin, in terms of nobody having the confidence which has created those runs on some of those banks that are most vulnerable. And we'll see if the chairman can restore some of the confidence. What do you think about yelling out there today? The comments out there that they're going to be there, not too surprising. The conversation going on about potentially guaranteeing all deposits out there. What do you think of that angle as we come into the Fed meeting? Of course, both of those kind of intertwined to put it lightly. Well, you have to realize something, Tommy, that Janet Yellen doesn't work for the Fed. She works for the administration. So she's going to say things that, I'm not even sure they have the ability to do that, but there's an explicit rule on banking deposits and then there's an implicit rule on banking deposits. And even though the guarantee, the explicit rule was 250,000, in 500 or so bank failures, no deposit has ever been uninsured. So there's something they say and something that they do. And so basically, this is one of those, well, it's not a rule, but your bank deposits are probably insured, but they don't want that to be in writing or anything like that. So that's what I think. I think she's working for the administration. She's reassuring people, but I don't think she has the authority to say all bank deposits are insured. Yeah, it's a pretty monumental change if they make it, man, especially, right? We're looking at this market, where it seems like the losses, if you can hold to maturity and all this stuff going on, at least from what we know right now, right? That the taxpayers wouldn't be, but we've seen banking crisis this, man. You start guaranteeing all depositors. You talk about more hazard, you talk about mortgage-backed securities, you talk about 2008. It's quite a can of worms that you could be opening, man, and just like you said, it explicit versus implicit. I'm trying to understand myself, Kevin, how this run stops to a degree because I don't think I'm willing to take that risk, even though you put it exactly right. And I don't know how you'd ever let a depositor go BK after you bail out Silicon Valley Bank, after you give Roku $500 million back that they stuffed in one bank, how you let anybody lose their money when you have a company like Roku and many others, folks, okay? I agree with you, but boy, why would you take that risk, right? It's like the risk-reward scenario from a trader, Kevin, of putting that money in a bank. There's not a ton of reward versus putting it in another bank potentially or splitting those funds. And that's where I'm kinda struggling to square all that. So we come into the Fed decision tomorrow. I like your take on things. It seems like if Chairman Powell paused, the confidence deal would be a big issue. We hit that tomorrow. Let's say, Kevin, let's just say that he does go 25, which some are expecting right now. Where do you see him going towards the next six weeks? We've had the two-year pullback so dramatically. I was listening to Bloomberg this morning. It's so interesting, actually, the two-year is back where it was on their February meeting, which is remarkable what we've done since then over a period of six weeks. If they do that, and maybe let's say, and we're making assumptions here, folks, okay? But where do you see the market, Kevin, as we go six weeks forward? If this really is maybe the area that, you know, they say, hey, guess what, we're restrictive, man. We're still going up 25. We're gonna do both. But what if this is that kind of turning point that potentially we get a pause six weeks out and maybe we get one more? What do you think of equities? What do you think of yields? If that kind of is that turning point that we're currently in? Well, here's the great thing about the March meeting. The March meeting is one of the four times a year where you're gonna get dot plots from all the members. And so you're gonna get an overall, even though that's just a snapshot of how they're feeling right now, and that could certainly change based on the data. That could be something that gives people either a good feeling or a bad feeling about things going forward. So Tommy, I think there's a lot, there'll be a lot to digest, but the number one thing you want to consume and digest is on Wednesday, drone policy press conference. Because, you know, let's face it, during this entire banking crisis, he hasn't spoken because of the blackout period, right, from the Fed. So that's why we've heard so much from Janet Yellen and members of the administration. But we haven't heard from anyone from the Fed. Once that quiet period's over, I expect a lot of chatter about banking, about rates. And I personally think they'll come out and say, we can do inflation and we can secure the banks. And those two can act independently, even though they're related, those two can act independently. I think that's the theme we'll get. I'm just guessing. But, you know, the speculation and the market, here's what I think. If you want to know what I think about the markets, Tommy, they're going to be valuable. They're going to be witty. And just like they have been. So, news is going to be key here. Watch the news cycle. And I think this is going to be an interesting couple of days and weeks here. Cool. And folks, he puts it exactly right, Kevin. I mean, these charts on the S&Ps, it's almost moves every single day. They don't look as large as they are on the thinkorswim platform, man. Cause you got a hundred point moves left and right. And this is not how it always is, folks. You know, so take advantage of it if you can, because this volatility might seem normal now, but as we all know, it is not normal, man. And the moves are just amazing in terms of, I mean, we're 120 points off of where we were four in the morning yesterday, Kevin, after going down 80 points. I know you know it, but man, those are some staggering numbers. With that in mind, Kevin, the program at 12, I know we got a few things you guys may be touching on to begin the program in terms of what's on the table. But what are you guys talking about on Fast Market at 12 today, Kevin? Well, I have great news is we have Nike about today. So we're working out a third, we're not... Broke up a little bit there, Kevin, but I appreciate it, man. We got some wild days. Always interesting when I talk to you on Tuesday and especially so, man, from that Thursday. Who knows where the market's gonna be tomorrow? Kevin, I appreciate the time as always, man. I appreciate the education. We'll be watching at 12 o'clock today and we'll talk to you tomorrow, brother. Thanks for having me on, Tally. Always a pleasure. Folks, Fast Market. Does the market get any faster than it is right now, man? We jump over to the VIX Volatility Index on that Thinkerswim platform. Whoo, talk about sucking out some volatility, man, from 29 to 22 over the last couple of days. Well, that's what happens when the market rose up 120 points. Stay tuned, folks. We're coming back for the opening bell. We'll be right back. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right, but you're not most people, are you? 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At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry, tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. You've got markets open and we catch a bit, man. Check it out. S&Ps now up 42 points. Nasdaq 100, up about 100 points. That's 810th percent. Dow up 1.1 percent. 32,821, you got the Russell up 1.9 percent. The Russell approaching 90 points above where it was at yesterday, folks. And boy, what's that percentage minus? 90 divided by 1700. You're talking about a 5.3 percent move in the Russell from the overnight lows of just Sunday evening going into Monday morning. You talk about some action, man, to put it lightly. We jump over to the crude contract. Crude catching a little bit of a bid. 6,888 from 6,436 yesterday. Gold contract pulling back a bit. 2014, how about Bitcoin, right? Bitcoin, 28,235. You back it up to 10 days ago, folks. And you're talking about a 19,000 handle, up to 28,000, pretty remarkable. Gold pulling back, check out that chart from 1,800 and change to 2,000 and change. Silver going from 1994 to 22,85. And we jump to the all-important notes and bonds. And just like that, a race all of last week, right? The 10-year, 114,11. Overnight, we were at 115,11. Sunday night, we're at 116,24. Absolutely remarkable, everywhere in this market. You get the 10-year off 24 basis points, 24 ticks at 114,10. You have the 30-year off a full point and one ticket, 130,13. And we jump over to that, Vicks, as I mentioned, pulling back hard, man, 22,56, as this market rocks higher. 4,025, absolutely remarkable. You almost have to recalibrate a lot of the charts you're looking at when you get this type of expansion. Now, here's what we'll pull up, folks. All right, let's go back. Let's see, what are we gonna do here? So that brings us all the way back. Well, that brings us back to some degree, okay? So to bring you into where this was, Chairman Powell was here when he spoke in front of Congress, okay? And he told them hire for longer was the deal. So even if you take the spike high you got from Monday, the spike high Tuesday, I mean, absolutely remarkable. He almost got it all back from where he was on Tuesday, let alone when now above where it was at at the end of the day, Tuesday. What I don't understand and I'm trying to understand and I get the fact that the feds throwing helicopter money everywhere and that matters, folks, don't think it doesn't, right? But inflation's still here, okay? And basically Chairman Powell signaled they were going 50 at that March 7th meeting. He scaled it back potentially a little bit on Wednesday saying maybe that wasn't exactly what he was talking about and I'm paraphrasing from basically market sentiment, okay? But if they don't go up, they're only not going up because the tightness in the economy is gonna be there that's gonna replicate a 50 basis point hike anyway, right? And the contagion is not over, man. If it was over, we wouldn't be dealing with these headlines left and right and Janet Yellen wouldn't be coming out basically saying that they're gonna guarantee everybody. Now Kevin put it well, okay? There is an implicit guarantee folks and they're not gonna deal with just cherry pick in one bank where all the depositors lose their money no matter how big or small it is right now because that alone will just send everybody to the banks, okay? So they're not gonna let that happen but it is interesting that they would make it actually explicit and as Kevin said, I don't know if you have that power because right now that might not seem like the end of the world when you're talking about banks like Silicon Valley Bank, right? That in this one in particular, okay? It's not the end of the world when I talk about my perception of a government backstop because yeah, the government could just hold that money until maturity, okay? So it's not a capital crisis on those specific debt instruments which are of the highest credit quality US backed, okay? Yeah, we could tangent off into whether those are as reliable as we all think going out 10 plus years considering we can't go out 10 plus months right now with the government saying that they'll pay their bills that we've already spent. That's another story I'll completely but so you could backstop that one but as I mentioned to Kevin, you can't backstop everything unless you really ratchet up the regulations because it's gonna create a moral hazard and so you have to have tougher regulations if you create that moral hazard and you have to have them because the whole system could collapse and you could have a backstop, man that could be trillions. There's no reason why you couldn't. Silicon Valley Bank was what, $200 billion? What was signature? $100 billion, First Republic is what, 250, 270? Those three banks alone, you're talking about depositors of over half a trillion dollars. Just three banks that have been out of whack. Now let's jump around to some of those banks this morning, First Republic. Up 25% as I started off the program though folks be careful percentages on small numbers can be deceiving. You're only back to basically yesterday afternoon. Meanwhile, this thing was trading at $40 last week when the market found out they were getting $30 billion from JP Morgan, well guess what? Jamie Diamond, he's trying to do it again because that did nothing. The 30 billion is nothing when they're getting the outflows that they're getting. Yeah, and the market woke up to that pretty quickly. Now bringing it back to the mortgage back securities, okay, this one gets a little diced here. I'm not sure how it's gonna play out, man. For Schwab, $159 billion. I mean, you talk about the government backstopping everything, folks. Well, how about if that's gonna be the case, the banks mark to market their assets. I mean, how do you have, I mean, folks, if you've taken accounting, okay, you got assets and you got liabilities. And I'm talking about accounting 101, man. Assets and liabilities, okay. Well, how is it that you just never have to market some of your assets to the tune of tens if not hundreds of billions of dollars and we don't figure out that eventually that could go bad? It just seems like an obvious scenario and you look at some of these numbers, man. It is pretty startling in terms of how high the percentages of these numbers have risen. Now, agency, mortgage back securities, okay. This is an article from the journal this morning and it's talking about like all long-term bonds, okay. Mortgage back securities are vulnerable to rising interest rates which pushed their prices down last year and saddled the banks such as Silicon Valley Bank with unrealized losses. So now that the FDIC has taken over Silicon Valley Bank, okay. They talk about investors expect the bonds to be sold off in coming months, adding supply to the weakened market and pushing prices lower. So this is an $8 trillion bond market, okay. Consider it almost as safe as US government bonds and meanwhile you have the FDIC taken over Silicon Valley, right, they're gonna sell off their bonds. That's gonna hurt the market already and you already have the others that are in there and you look at some of the numbers. I mean, Silicon signature bank folks only had 4.5 billion in there, right. Some of the numbers that are really a mess. First Republic only has held to maturity of 6.4. There was Silicon, they were at $69 billion. That was a big problem, okay. US bank corp 36 and Charles Schwab 159 billion, man. They're gonna be in some trouble. Yeah, Charles Schwab and Truist. There's Truist in here, there's Truist at 47.8 billion have held to maturity. Now they're not all mortgage backed I think, right, yeah. No, this is the mortgage debt. This is just mortgage debt. Agency mortgage debt, wow. Yeah, some of the largest holders, Schwab and Truist of agency mortgage backed securities among mid-sized US financial institutions. Schwab, $237 billion of securities. The company say they have ample capital. Well, don't matter what the company say right now. I think you know that one, right. Any pairing of such large portfolios would hurt prices of the low coupon bonds most banks hold but measures taken by US regulators would prevent the fire sale. The feds lending facility and other initiatives would prevent banks from doing any forced sales. I mean, that's what they're trying to prevent, man. But boy, you talk about contagion, reverberations, that is quite a chart. Where was this chart two weeks ago, right? Where was that two weeks ago? Got a lot to talk about still folks, don't go away. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. 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Backing off, 108 on the dollar index. You check out the Euro. Euro US dollar right now climbing 10777. There you go. Let's check out the dollar yen. Dollar yen right now. Backing off to about 132.23. Back to the S&Ps real quick. See, take a look at where this thing was February 14th. We were pushing 4,200. You make it to a high of 4,186. You trade down to a low, March 13th of 3933. Now here's what's interesting, folks, okay? Let's say basically the market completed an A to B, C to D formation to the downside. When you trade it from 4,186, down to a price point of 3839. Now your A point would be about 4,186. See the one sec. I pulled this up during the break. 4,186, your B point, 3925. You're talking about an A to B leg of about 259 points. Now I say about that's exactly 259 points, folks. But sometimes when I'm taking these, okay? When you get these large tails and you have an area that might better represent where it's sold off from, sometimes I'll take that. It's an art, not a science, right? Is the A point really begin at 4,186.50? Does it begin at 4,288 back here? Or does it begin somewhere around about 4,150? Right? We had chopped around for a while. Point being, you got about an A to B leg of about 250 points, okay? Now we'll do this a couple of ways, because check this out. Let's say that is your A to B leg. Okay, you go down to a Fibonacci, what do we do? We got back to about a 618 in terms of your trade down to your A point on February 14th, your B point on March 2nd. Within the span of a couple trading days, you give back a 618, but then what happens? What happens, folks, is you do about a 250 point leg again. You trade from a price point of 4,080 in the S&Ps down to 30,849, what's that? About 240 S&P points that you trade. You got some tails there. And then we've bounced. Now, where could this market trade to? Yeah, anyone's guess, as we know, okay? But let's say, we'll just look at the real trend that we've gotten recently in terms of the entire completion of the A to B seated below. You go from 4,186 down to the lows of March 13th of about 3840, your 618 brings you right back to basically the highs of March 6th, right? 4,055, maybe that's where you face some heat, man, because you're kind of in a little bit of no man's land right now. You got above the highs we had on March 17th. That high was 4,010. We're trading at 4,025. Now, if you're looking for an A to B to the upside, okay, now again, remember this kind of area. We're talking about 4,050, potentially 4,055. Maybe we face a little bit of heat. You got yelling coming up in 15 minutes. Most of the heat of what she said is probably out there in terms of the sentiment, what she's talking about that they will be there, implicit versus explicit, as our man, Kevin Hink, stated. So we're talking about 4,055 potentially, okay, where we are. But if you just look and we go back to from where we were on March 10th, okay, where are we to get it? Yeah, so you're looking at a price point of about, what, 4,038.50, right? You trade up from 3850 to about 4,000. So that's 150 points up. That's 100 points back down. So if your A point is about 3850, okay, right here. Your B point would be about 4,000. Your C point would be 3,900. Now, to put that in context as well, in terms of what type of a pullback we got, what did we get, folks? 618 to everywhere in this market. I'm telling you, I just keep seeing them everywhere, man. So you trade from below a 3839. We get up to a high, March 17th of about 4,010. You trade back to the 618. And if you trade, that's 150 points, basically, from about 3850 up to the price point of 4,000. If that's your A to B leg, you trade down to 618. If you get a C to D leg that matches the A to B leg, that brings you from about 3905 at 150 points to 3905, folks, and guess where it brings you? Exactly where we were just talking about, 4,055. Doesn't mean it's gonna happen. Not even sure you'd get, I don't know how you get it. 30 points higher. But guess what, man? The helicopter money's coming and we've seen the volatility, man, left and right. And I'm not so sure it's done in this market and I'm not so sure the market deserves to be up 130 points right now. When you have a Fed meeting tomorrow where the chairman is probably gonna hike in the face of a banking crisis and it's gonna become more and more difficult. The one question that I'm gonna ask our man, Kevin Hanks, tomorrow, okay? Because I was thinking about it and I agree with a lot of what Kevin says. I mean, you can't beat experience, folks, and that's why I love talking to him three days a week. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, is 9.15. He said, you know, chairman's gonna come out and he's gonna be confident. He said, we can do both. It's almost like what he has to do, right? What else is he gonna say? I'm too afraid of the financial crisis to really combat inflation right now. I'm too afraid of inflation to really care about the financial crisis right now. No, you gotta do both because that's what his job is. The better question is can he do both, right? Can he tame inflation while he worries about the health of the banks? Can he make sure the banks are strong at the same time that he is still worried about inflation? I don't know if he can do that and we're gonna find out. But I thought that was interesting when you really lay out the runs we've had, right? So you have an A to B leg, C to D leg that brings us to the lows. Since that time, we've had 150 point rise up. You bring it back to the 618. 150 points will bring us basically back to the highs that we had from about March 6th. And folks, that's 200 points down and 200 points up in the period of about two weeks heading into a Fed decision that is one of the more uncertain that I've ever experienced to put it lightly. So it's gonna be an interesting one, folks. And we talk about those mortgage-backed securities, right? You see charts like this, folks and somebody tells you it's over, don't worry. And we ever start guaranteeing all deposits. I as a tax holder, okay? And this is, listen, this is not the same deal Silicon Valley Bank as some 2008 bailout, okay? It's not. But if we're gonna be backstopping things, you better believe that the accounting rules that allow these banks just to hold assets that aren't worth what they say they are. I mean, it's just a recipe for disaster. As we know, folks, I mean, who couldn't figure out that holding debt, anyway, at 1.63%, right? We know how it goes, man. Okay, let's jump in what else we got going on. What do we got? We got some individual equity news. Yeah, we got Amazon. So they're laying off another 9,000 workers, okay? I mean, folks, 9,000 workers for Amazon. Get my dad to talk about how many employees they have. They like doubled or tripled their employee base over the last three or five years during the pandemic, okay? So 9,000 workers, 18,000 workers. Is anybody in the den know how many workers they have right now? I think it's a million plus, right? You got Jazzy in there. He's had a tough start to his position as CEO. Oh boy, it's a tough time that Bezos got out of dodge right at the right time, man. And I'm sure he's not happy with how his wealth has gone over that time. But I imagine he's okay with not being the CEO with some of those decisions. It's a double-edged sword, right? Of course, he wants to protect the company he built. But man, he got out, right? When things were gonna get a little dicey, but 9,000 jobs is nothing for that. Adding to the 18,000 that were laid off in January. Yeah. Yeah, this is an interesting article talking about virgin orbit. So one of the things here seemed to have everything going, but yeah, they're in big trouble. Be careful of this one, folks. They spun that off from Virgin Galactic. And you talk about a chart. We're gonna talk about this. We're gonna talk about space from 11 bucks to 48 cents. And be careful of the other one too, Virgin Galactic, as they're now trading at just $4. Stay tuned, folks. We'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigerses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com. Welcome back, folks, S&Ps up by 40. No problem, Shazam. We got a lot going on in this market, man. It's tough to keep track of. Amazon employees, my dad in there, about 1.5 million. 1.5 million, okay? So when you talk about 9,000 folks to put it in context, that would be like a company with 150,000 saying they're laying off 900 workers or that'd be like a company with 15,000 workers saying they're laying off 90 workers, right? Putting things in context. 15,000 laying off 90 workers. Same thing as 1.5 million laying off 9,000 and they've only laid off 18,000 before that. Now, we'll wrap it up, man. You talk about some losses, right? All of these 81 bonds, as my dad was talking about last night, they call them grenade bombs. Grenade bombs, bombs, bombs. Yeah, they might as well call them grenade bombs, man, the way they went off. So all the talk about the 81 bonds getting wiped out while equity holders held some of that, okay? In terms of equity, didn't get wiped out. These bonds did. They were created in the 2008 crisis, okay? The riskiest, the riskiest in the bank's debt stack. All right, here's all I'm gonna talk about. Now, this talks about that PIMCO had $807 million of them, okay? And who else, what was it? Credit Invesco is the other biggest holder of what they have in here, but here's the kicker folks, okay? Don't feel so bad for the banks because they were getting, they got the interest rate in here. Oh, come on, 7.9% or something I saw in here was the percentage they were getting. All right, I'll find it. But it was, listen, any time you get over the guaranteed interest rate, period, you have risk. So all this talk about like the risk, right? There was added risk to those bonds and they were getting the yield for the added risk to those bonds. Pretty remarkable, man, to say the least. Folks, it's a fast market out there. Stay tuned. We got a man Basil Chapman coming up next. It's a wild one, folks. And we got Fed Day tomorrow and we keep marching on S&Ps. Hold them up pretty well, man. Pretty calm, 26 minutes to trading, right? To kick things off in terms of you open hire, you trade up to 4,027. We're sitting within a few points of that open, folks. I'm not sure that's how the day's gonna go though. Thanks so much for starting your trading day off. I look forward to seeing you tomorrow morning, folks. Stay tuned. We got our man, Basil Chapman with the Tiger Technicians Hour. He's coming up next. Have a great Tuesday, everybody.